INTRODUCTION

One of the most important resources of enterprises, organizations requiring effective management, is real estate - land, buildings, structures and premises.

Real estate, on the one hand, is taxed, on the other hand, it can bring significant profit due to its effective use. Without exaggeration, we can say that real estate can both contribute to the prosperity of an enterprise, and vice versa, its inefficient use leads to decline. In this regard, the development of a real estate management system is of particular importance in order to meet the needs of owners in obtaining the maximum income from their assets or in achieving another positive effect. To achieve a positive result, it is necessary to constantly monitor the use of real estate and find the most effective ways managing it.

Effective property management is essential for the development of both the real estate market and the economy as a whole. In a market economy, real estate is an asset that connects the huge financial resources of market participants and ways to achieve the desired results.

In order to make decisions on the effective management of real estate, an enterprise must be based on a well-thought-out system for recording and using real estate, based on reliable and easily accessible information presented in various ways.

The relevance of the research topic lies in the fact that the Russian real estate market is not yet fully formed and does not have a strictly structured legal framework. An effective real estate management system will satisfy the needs of the market to the maximum extent, maximize budget revenues, increase liquidity and market value of objects.

The purpose of this work is to assess the effectiveness of real estate management in the city of Kazan and develop measures to improve it.

Consider the classification of real estate markets;

Explain the essence and economic role property management;

Consider indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of property management;

Conduct an assessment of the effectiveness of the management of residential and office real estate;

Make proposals for improving the assessment of the effectiveness of property management.

The object of the study is the real estate market of the city of Kazan.

The subject of the study is a system for evaluating the effectiveness of real estate management.

The basis for writing this work is the legislative and regulatory documents in force on the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as special literature on the topic under study of the work of domestic and foreign economists involved in the study of issues of assessing the effectiveness of real estate management, the legislation of the Russian Federation, textbooks and literature of such authors as Kharlamov A. S, Buryak V.Yu., Raizberg B.A., Grinenko S.V., as well as the materials of the actual research conducted in Kazan for 2013-2014.

The first chapter examines the theory and practice of evaluating the effectiveness of real estate management. The second chapter evaluates and analyzes the effectiveness of management real estate on the example of residential and office real estate and formulated proposals for improving the assessment of the effectiveness of property management.

1. THEORETICAL AND MOTODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ASSESSING THE EFFICIENCY OF REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT

1.1 CLASSIFICATION OF REAL ESTATE MARKETS

There are many definitions of the real estate market. All of them to some extent reflect the essence of the real estate market, however, some have striking differences from each other. In this thesis, the most simple, understandable and complete definitions are chosen, according to the author.

The real estate market is a system of arrangements by which buyers and sellers come together to determine a specific price at which an exchange of a specific commodity such as real estate can take place.

The real estate market is a sphere of capital investment in real estate and a system of economic relations arising from real estate transactions. These relationships appear between investors in the sale and purchase of real estate, mortgage, delivery of real estate in trust, rent, lease.

The real estate market is a mechanism by which the interests and rights of buyers and sellers are combined, real estate prices are set.

The real estate market and the level of its development can be characterized through the development of the national economy. In the development of the Russian real estate market, it is customary to single out several of the following stages.

The first and most turbulent period of development of the real estate market experienced in the early 90s. The opening and development of enterprises occurred due to the fact that demand was far ahead of supply, and as a result, incomes were very high. The starting point of this stage can be considered a permit for the privatization of apartments and, accordingly, the opportunity that has appeared for people to sell and buy apartments on their own. It was then that a significant number of businessmen and wealthy people appeared who wanted to improve their living conditions in a newly discovered way. That is, not the expectation of free municipal housing, not complex exchange schemes, but simply the direct purchase of apartments, which at that time were privatized relatively few. There were few sellers of apartments, but there were already enough buyers.

At the second stage, the law makes its corrections to the problem, namely, the first regulations regulating real estate activities in Russia. This period is characterized by the provision of significant benefits, which, while maintaining a good market environment, made it possible to receive good incomes, and attracted new entrepreneurs to this segment of the market. Housing prices began to rise, but in contrast to this, apartments became much more difficult to sell, and buyers became more picky. In particular, the sale with installment payment, the provision of loans secured by security, appeared and became widespread. Some firms began to work under non-standard contracts, undertaking an obligation to sell the client's apartment within a certain period.

The third stage is characterized again by the excess of demand over supply, tightening legislative framework, intense competition in the market, which together led to a drop in sellers' income. Small enterprises simply go bankrupt, medium and even large ones are on the verge of ruin. By the beginning of 1996, a natural decline in the cost of apartments began. The number of apartments offered for sale was increasing, while the number of potential buyers, on the contrary, was going down.

From the second half of 1999, a new stage in the development of the Russian real estate market after the August crisis of 1998 began - the stage of ending price reductions, the beginning of stabilization and some recovery. This took place against the backdrop of a favorable development of macroeconomic indicators in the country and, in particular, low (compared to autumn 1998) inflation rates, a smooth and limited devaluation of the ruble against the dollar.

Consequently, the real estate market, as it follows from the theory of a market economy, is cyclical, therefore it went through a recession stage, reached stabilization, and a new rise was expected ahead, including some price growth.

Real estate occupies a central place in any social structure, simultaneously performing two important functions: the means of production and the subject of personal consumption for living, recreation, cultural activities, etc. The economic and legal regulation by the state of various spheres of society and material production is closely connected with real estate objects, hence the following features of the real estate market.

Table 1.1.1 Features of the real estate market

	Characteristic
Localization	Absolute immobility Great dependence of price on location
Type of competition	imperfect, oligopoly Few buyers and sellers The uniqueness of each object Price controls are limited Entering the market requires significant capital
Elasticity of offers	Low, with an increase in demand and prices, supply increases little Demand can be very volatile
Degree of openness	Transactions are private Public information, often incomplete and inaccurate
Product competitiveness	Largely determined by the external environment, the influence of the neighborhood The specificity of individual preferences of buyers
Zoning conditions	Regulated by civil and land legislation, taking into account water, forestry, environmental and other special rights Great interdependence of private and other forms of ownership
Registration of transactions	legal difficulties, Limitations and conditions
Price	includes the value of the object and associated rights

Regional real estate markets can have significant differences among themselves. This is due to many subjective reasons, such as economic or natural conditions, as well as the regional legal framework, which is formed by local governments.

The real estate market has a branched structure and can be divided according to various criteria, for example, according to those presented in table 1.1.2.

Table 1.1.2 Classification of real estate markets

Classification sign	Market types
Object type	Land, buildings, structures, enterprises, premises, perennial plantings, rights in rem, other objects
Geographic (territorial)	Local, city, regional, national, world
Functional purpose	Industrial premises, residential, non-industrial buildings and premises
Degree of readiness for operation	Existing facilities, construction in progress, new construction
Participant Type	Individual sellers and buyers, resellers, municipalities, commercial organizations
Type of transactions	Purchase and sale, lease, mortgage, rights in rem
Industry affiliation	Industrial facilities, agricultural facilities, public buildings, others
Type of ownership	State and municipal facilities, private
Transaction method	Primary and secondary, organized and unorganized, exchange and over-the-counter, traditional and computerized

As we can see from Table 1.1.2, there are quite a few types of real estate markets, the segmentation of which depends on the requested criterion.

For example, depending on the structure, the real estate market is divided into:

housing market;

Commercial real estate market;

Land market.

Each of the market segments can also be divided into specialized submarkets. Thus, the industrial real estate market can be subdivided into markets for industrial enterprises, the building of research institutes, or the housing market for primary and secondary housing, with and without finishing, from owners and from the state, and so on.

The differentiation of real estate markets is also associated with many economic, environmental, social and government factors, and, directly, with the functions that it performs:

Establishment of equilibrium prices at which effective demand corresponds to the volume of real estate supply;

Regulatory function, with the help of which resources are distributed among the spheres of the economy, its effective structure is formed, and public interests are satisfied;

Commercial function, which consists in organizing the movement of capital and making a profit;

Sanitation function, expressed in the cleansing of the economy from weak, uncompetitive and inefficient elements;

Stimulating function, which consists in the development of competition and the use of scientific, technical and managerial innovations in the pursuit of profit in the creation and use of real estate;

A social function, manifested in the growth of the activity of the population, striving to become owners of apartments, as well as other capital and prestigious objects.

Conclusion: real estate is the most durable commodity of all existing, ensuring the reliability of investments, although its value can both increase and decrease over time, under the influence of various factors. The real estate market received an impetus for development, in line with the development of the country's national economy. It is divided into segments based on the purpose of real estate and its attractiveness to various market participants. Also, each independent segment is further subdivided into many submarkets, so it is difficult to single out and generalize the most significant features for classification, since each market participant has his own most acceptable criteria for choosing a segment within which he is interested to enter into market relations.

1.2 ESSENCE AND ECONOMIC ROLE OF REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT

Real estate is property (real estate), the management of which can be structured at the following levels:

Federal real estate management;

Real estate management of subjects of the Russian Federation;

Management of municipal real estate;

Real estate management of enterprises and organizations;

Management of individual properties.

The concept of "property management" is interpreted in two senses: broad and narrow.

In a broad sense, real estate management, as a rule, is understood as entrepreneurial activity for the performance of all work related to the execution of any powers of the owner of real estate permitted by civil law. For example, in accordance with the life cycle of real estate, the following rights are allowed for owners:

1. intention;

2. design;

3. manufacturing (erection, construction);

4. appeal;

5. use (service);

6. maintenance, operation, repair;

7. overhaul, modernization, reconstruction and restoration;

8. reprofiling;

9. recycling.

A narrow interpretation of real estate management reads as follows: “Real estate management is the implementation of a complex of operations for the operation of buildings and structures (maintaining them in working order, repairing, providing services, determining the conditions for renting out space, collecting rent, and so on) in order to most effectively use real estate."

Real estate is also understood as real estate, namely, we are talking about property management, that is, real estate management includes the management of all ensuing rights to real estate. The property under management is presented as a unity of legal, economic and physical characteristics.

In our opinion, it follows from this that management is primarily intended to ensure maximum efficiency in the use of real estate in accordance with the interests of the owner.

Real estate management is an activity in its field related to the definition of goals and setting tasks for planning, organizing, executing and controlling the useful, efficient use of real estate.

We believe that management activity is multifaceted in its essence and nature, coordinating the goals and objectives of owners, users, service companies and all subjects in one way or another connected with real estate.

In a market economy, real estate management is carried out in accordance with the law of supply and demand.

In addition to market conditions, tangible factors in real estate management are the legislation regulating it and the activities of various official bodies and institutions.

Real estate management can be internal and external:

Internal real estate management is the activity of a real estate market entity, regulated by its own regulatory documents (code, charter, regulations, rules, contracts, instructions, etc.).

External real estate management is the activity of state structures aimed at creating a regulatory framework and monitoring compliance by all subjects of the real estate market with established norms and rules.

Real estate management activities are carried out primarily in the three most significant aspects - legal, economic and technical. The legal aspect of real estate management is the most rational use, distribution and combination of rights to real estate.

The economic aspect of real estate management is implemented through the management of income and expenses generated during the operation of real estate. In other words, the manager has the right to fully and independently, within the framework of the law, control and regulate the income and expenditure part of real estate ownership, as well as operate it at his own discretion.

The technical aspect of control is to maintain the control object in a healthy state in accordance with its functional purpose.

Real estate management is a comprehensive approach to improving and maintaining the condition of an object, organizing and predicting its development, the way it is operated in accordance with its intended purpose. The concept of real estate management also includes, first of all, such actions as renting out and managing office buildings, that is, real estate management as a means of attracting investments. On the other hand, property management can also be viewed as an investment itself. Based on the foregoing, we have identified the following goals for managing the real estate market:

Implementation of the constitutional rights of citizens to real estate and obligations associated with its possession;

Establishment in the market of a certain procedure and conditions for the work of its participants;

Protection of participants from dishonesty, fraud and criminal organizations and individuals;

Ensuring free pricing of real estate objects in accordance with supply and demand;

Creation of conditions for investments, stimulating entrepreneurial activity in the sphere of production;

Fair taxation of real estate and real estate market participants.

To achieve these goals, in our opinion, it is necessary:

1. form a complete registry state real estate(real estate balance), containing quantitative, cost, technical and legal characteristics of real estate objects;

2. clearly delineate and coordinate the powers of all state authorities involved in the process of real estate management;

3. to form objects of management, excluding the possibility of disposing of one part of the object without the other in cases where they form a single whole (as a rule, these are land plots and buildings and structures located on them);

4. ensure the unconditional application of the market valuation mechanism when using real estate;

5. create conditions for attracting investments in the real sector of the economy by maximizing the involvement of real estate in civil circulation;

6. regulate the issues of state acquisition of real estate objects, including by defining the goals for the achievement of which the acquisition of these objects is carried out;

7. to use for effective real estate management a mechanism for reimbursement of expenses for real estate management (including inventory and valuation), similar to civil law, since the state, when using its real estate, participates in civil circulation on an equal basis with its other participants;

8. change the existing mechanism for the sale of real estate, as it allows the acquisition of objects at low prices;

9. Establish for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation a unified procedure for making decisions on the use of federal real estate (primarily in relation to leased objects), ensuring prompt decision-making;

10. provide professional training for civil servants managing federal real estate.

An object of management in the field of real estate is an immovable thing or a set of immovable things, considered as a single object from the point of view of organizing the most effective management of them, taking into account the costs of maintenance and management.

Summing up the above, we can say that real estate management is certainly a complex and multifaceted process, which includes many different factors and aspects. The management mechanism contains not only the rights and obligations of the owner of the property, but is also subject to state intervention, including the reinforcement of the management of the legislative framework.

1.3 REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

To implement the procedure for evaluating the effectiveness of real estate management, various approaches and indicators are used. In theory, there are no clearly defined indicators by which it is possible to determine the degree of efficiency of real estate management, since in practice any chosen indicator may not be effective for a single enterprise, and the experience of a single enterprise may not be applicable for larger distribution.

However, it is customary to consider the approach of evaluating the effectiveness of financial indicators. Indeed, if a company is the owner, for example, of an administrative building and its business is to rent out the premises, then this approach will not be difficult, since all the necessary information is on hand, whether on the one hand the cost of staff, repairs and equipment buildings, maintaining communications in good condition, and on the other hand, the amount of payments received from tenants is clearly defined.

Table 1.3.1 Analysis of the main technical and economic indicators of the enterprise NCF "Audit and Evaluation"

Indicators			Absolute deviation, thousand rubles	Growth rate, %
Net revenue, thousand rubles
Cost of services, thousand rubles
Gross profit, thousand rubles
Selling and administrative expenses, thousand rubles
Profit from sales, thousand rubles
Profit before tax, thousand rubles
Net profit, thousand rubles
Average annual cost of fixed assets, thousand rubles
Average number of employees, people
Labor productivity, thousand rubles/person
Profitability of production, %			3 percentage points
Return on sales, %			4 percentage points
Return on assets rub per 1 rub

But if the company is a large owner of industrial real estate, the problem arises of obtaining the full information required to assess the effectiveness of real estate management. IN financial reporting factors such as:

Market promotion of a new product;

Potential opportunities of the company;

The interest of employees in the success of the company;

Customer loyalty, etc.

Although such non-material indicators are reflected and rightfully occupy their niche in assessing the effectiveness of real estate management.

From the point of view of economics, the fundamental principle "efficiency - the ratio of results to costs" does not always allow for a correct assessment of efficiency. This is due to several factors:

Features of the information age, namely its essential features - the increasing role and importance of the information resource, intangible assets;

The complication of economic life - an increase in the degree of its openness, globalization, competition;

Changing the content of results and costs, and, accordingly, the difficulty in determining their values;

The rapid development of the system of values ​​and, consequently, the change in the system of indicators, characteristics and indicators, which together reflect the effectiveness of activities.

B.A. Reizberg and V.Yu. Buryak, considering issues of efficiency in relation to state property, note that “a specific methodology for assessing the economic, social, functional efficiency of managing a certain class, a group of property objects of state ownership, varying in relation to the estimated method of using the property complex, is designed to make it possible to establish the value, magnitude of performance indicators. But these indicators do not have a universal character, they largely depend on the object of assessment, the purpose and nature of the application of this object. As a result, the conclusion is made "it should be recognized as impossible to create a single universal methodology for evaluating effectiveness" .

With the exception of the traditional approach, among modern approaches, they also single out the most promising system of balanced scorecards (BSC) developed by R. Kaplan and D. Norton. They singled out the four most important components in evaluating effectiveness: financial activities, relations with consumers, organization of internal business processes, training and development of personnel. The essence of the BSC is to achieve a balance between the number of internal and external, objective and subjective indicators. Another advantage of this approach is that this system, according to the authors, is quite flexible and "creative" regarding its implementation in any production.

Taking into account the provisions of the general concept and strategy that the company adheres to, the accumulated experience in methodological support for performance assessment, it can determine specific performance indicators for assessing real estate management based on the BSC (see Appendix 1).

The most important detail for creating a BSC are, as in the traditional approach, two financial results: cost reduction and income increase. Based on this, we can include in the BSC such indicators that, provided they are consistently achieved, allow us to most fully assess the effectiveness. We can introduce such indicators at any level within the BSC.

Based on Appendix 1, we can identify several performance indicators for real estate management. These indicators include each separately from four components. All indicators are considered, comments are given in the tables below.

Table 1.3.2 Criteria for the effectiveness of real estate management (financial component)

Table 1.3.3 Criteria for the effectiveness of real estate management (client component)

Strategic Initiatives	Performance indicators
Provision of additional services	1. Program for determining the demand for additional services and their relevance;
	2.Organization of contractual work in order to provide additional services; 3. Development of criteria for assessing the quality of services provided
Improvement of work with clients	1. Saving existing customers and ensuring their interest in continuing cooperation; 2. Development of a mechanism for the qualitative and operational study of incoming proposals for various projects.
Formation of the image of a "corporate citizen"	1. Program for media coverage of the social role of the company (social programs, paid taxes, etc.) 2. A program aimed at developing in the minds of people an understanding of the importance of the activities performed by the company, their interest in this activity; 3. Carrying out activities aimed at improving the environmental situation at the company's facilities

Table 1.3.4 Criteria for the effectiveness of real estate management (component of business processes)

Strategic Initiatives	Performance indicators
Orientation in the use of real estate to a combination of interests of the company and customers	1. Providing a favorable offer for customers; 2. Carrying out polling activities in order to find out what changes dealers would like in the company's activities; 3. Determination of services and goods "discharged" to end consumers; 4. The program of monitoring and meeting the demand of consumers, their wishes.
Improving the actual management activities	1. Change and optimization of the internal structure of the company; 2.Social development program; 3. Improvement of accounting forms
Intensification of the use of real estate	1. Active introduction of saving technologies; 2. Determination of real estate objects to be repaired; 3.Determination of the company's costs for the maintenance of real estate; 4.Programme to streamline the costs of maintaining real estate and reduce them
Innovations in property management	1. Ensuring prompt application
	denial of promising innovations; 2. The program of operational development of innovations in the field of real estate, determining their effectiveness and expediency of implementation

Below is a description of the criteria for the effectiveness of real estate management, constituting a block of growth and learning.

Table 1.3.5 Performance Criteria for Real Estate Management (Learning and Growth)

Strategic Initiatives	Performance indicators
Staff training in modern management techniques	1. Correspondence of the level of knowledge of the employee to the work performed; 2. Determining the knowledge and specialties that employees should be trained in; 3. Program for further monitoring of the level of knowledge of employees
Access to information resources	1. Introduction of new technologies; 2.Creation of places for visual information about the results achieved and new tasks in the subdivisions
Creation of conditions for personnel activity	1. Active participation of each employee in the activities of the company; 2. The program of social protection of workers
Reward system for achieving set goals	1. Establishing the dependence of remuneration on performance results; 2. Definition of performance indicators for departments and individual employees 3. Informing the team about the achievements of colleagues.

In other words, analyzing Appendix 1, in our opinion, we can say that the real estate management system is:

The degree to which the company's goals are achieved when using various limited resources, including real estate;

The degree to which the goals of real estate management as a business process with the lowest costs are achieved;

The ability of the real estate management system to meet the evolving needs for real estate, taking into account its rational and economical use;

The ability of managerial influences to ensure the reproduction of consumer properties of real estate of the required quality at the lowest cost.

Within the framework of individual corporations, the following properties are assigned to the control for assessing the effectiveness of property management:

1. Sustainability of the strategic direction of functioning;

2. A clear vision of the future;

3. Diversification of management decisions;

4. The effect of interrelated actions;

5. Constancy and variety of changes;

6. Ability to perceive innovative technologies.

On the other hand, in our country they almost do not comply with the criteria and recommendations outlined above in the tables.

So, summarizing the above, we can say that there are no generally accepted indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of the use of real estate, however, there are several generalized approaches to address this issue. One of the approaches is based only on the financial result of the activity of an enterprise, organization, corporation, while the second one includes several stages, at each of which certain criteria are selected for evaluating efficiency. On the other hand, the head of any organization is relatively free to make a decision on performance evaluation and can create a certain system of indicators for himself, according to which he will be guided in order to achieve certain goals of the corporation.

residential office real estate appraisal

2. ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT IN KAZAN

2.1 ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

To assess the effectiveness of residential real estate management, the author identified the following, the most significant indicators and criteria in his opinion:

The total area of ​​residential premises put into operation in 2014;

The price of residential real estate;

Estimated sale price dynamics;

The influence of external factors on residential property

The first half of 2014 was marked by important events in the country's economy, which also affected the housing market of the Republic of Tatarstan: the depreciation of the ruble, the imposition of sanctions by the West and socio-demographic factors, on the one hand, and a large selection of offers from developers, along with lower mortgage rates, with another.

In the wake of increased demand, developers actively erected housing. So, at the beginning of July, more than 1.2 million sq. m of housing - almost 51% of the annual target. By the end of the first half of the year, Kazan took first place among the cities of the Volga Federal District in terms of commissioned housing: in total, more than 508 thousand square meters were commissioned. m.

In 2014, the percentage of buying apartments in new buildings increased - about 40% of transactions in Kazan are carried out with the involvement of mortgage funds. Mortgages tend to be taken out over the long term, so borrowers are wise to choose newer homes.

Rosreestr's data for the Republic of Tatarstan testify: in the six months of 2014, 45.3 thousand contracts were registered in the republic, which is 11% more than in the same period last year. Of these, 65% - housing, 22% - land, 13% - non-residential premises.

The increased demand also spurred prices on the market: in the first half of the year, real estate prices in the city grew faster than usual (within 6-8% in the first six months in the primary market).

According to the "Real Estate Server of Kazan and the Republic of Tatarstan", the average cost per square meter by July 2014 amounted to 67.5 thousand rubles in the secondary housing market, 50.7 thousand rubles in the primary housing market, and in particular in the current situation on In the real estate market of Kazan, the leaders-developers are Unistroy, YIT Kazan, Ak Bars Real Estate, Tatstroyinvest, and they put forward the following prices for their real estate:

Table 2.1.1 Comparative analysis of housing projects in Kazan for the second half of 2014

	Developer	Deadline	Apartment area	Price, million rubles
LCD "Emerald City" (Privolzhsky district)	"Unistroy"	1st half of 2014
LCD "Sovremennik" (Novo-Savinovsky district)	YIT Kazan	IV quarter 2014
LCD "Svetlaya Dolina" (Sovetsky district)	Ak Bars Real Estate	IV quarter 2014
Residential complex "Rainbow" (Kirovskiy district)	"Tatstroyinvest"	III quarter 2014

The cost of apartments is usually affected by location: the so-called Khrushchev in the Vakhitovsky district will be much more expensive than the same apartment in the Aviastroitelny or Kirovsky district. In addition, the cost is affected by the general condition of the apartment, the number of storeys and the material from which the house is built. In remote areas of the city, stalinkas and dormitories can stand idle for months waiting for their buyer.

One-room Khrushchev with an area of ​​​​32 square meters. m in Kazan today cost from 1.9 million to 2.25 million rubles, Leningrad (34 sq. m) - from 2.2 to 2.8 million, "odnushki" of the Moscow project (30 sq. m) - from 2.15 to 2.35 million.

A two-room Khrushchev building (43 sq. m) is estimated at 2.2-2.7 million rubles, a Leningrad one (51 sq. m) - from 3 to 3.5 million, a Moscow project - from 2.4 to 3 million. three-room apartments prices are as follows: Khrushchev (56 sq. m) - 2.7-3.3 million rubles, Leningrad (65 sq. m) - 3.4-3.8 million.

It should also be noted that housing stock Republic at the end of 2014 numbered 1618 thousand apartments (including houses that are privately owned by citizens), of which 1130.9 thousand apartments (69.9%) are located in apartment buildings. The average size of one apartment is 56.5 sq.m of total area. The general housing stock is invariably overwhelmingly privately owned.

The housing market in 2014 was actively developing in the sector of purchasing housing with the help of mortgages. About half of the registered real estate transactions were mortgage lending, which gave impetus to the intensive development of the residential construction branch, which some developers did not fail to take advantage of.

In order to predict the development of the housing market in Kazan for 2015, let us consider the dynamics of prices for renting and buying housing.

Table 2.1.2 Dynamics of prices for renting a one-room apartment in Kazan in 2011-2014

Based on the tables above, the author has compiled three forecasts for the development of the housing market: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic. The optimistic forecast was based on the fact that rent inflation will be comparable to consumer inflation, which is projected at 10% in 2015 . On this basis, we assume that the level of growth in the cost of renting apartments will be at the level of 10% per year.

A moderate forecast is an average level of growth between an optimistic and a pessimistic forecast, by which the cost of renting and buying an apartment in 2015 will decrease by 10% per year.

The pessimistic forecast was made on the basis of the reasoning that if we take into account the crisis of 2008-2009, when similar processes took place (the factor of the cost of money and their impact on the price of residential real estate, as well as the fall of the ruble), the cost of renting and buying an apartment fell by 30%.

Table 2.1.4 Moderate forecast for renting and buying an apartment with the help of mortgage lending in Kazan for 2015

		Forecast(-10%)			Forecast(-10%)

The moderate forecast says that renting and buying an apartment with the help of mortgage lending will fall by an average of 10% from the previous year.

Table 2.1.5 Optimistic forecast for renting and buying an apartment with the help of mortgage lending in Kazan for 2015

	rub./kV m.			RUB/ sq.m
		Forecast (+10%)			Forecast (+10%)

The optimistic forecast assumes an increase in rent and mortgage payments by 10%, taking into account inflation.

Table 2.1.6 Pessimistic forecast for renting and buying an apartment with the help of mortgage lending in Kazan for 2015

		Forecast(-30%)			Forecast(-30%)

According to a pessimistic forecast, rent and mortgage lending should fall by 30% next year.

Based on the forecasts and tables, as well as the considered dynamics of the purchase price and the dynamics of the rental price, we can say that prices in the housing rental market next year will be extremely unstable and will presumably range from 12,700 thousand rubles to 15 600 thousand rubles, and on the purchase market with the help of mortgage lending from 45,000 thousand rubles. up to 70,576 thousand rubles.

According to the author, a pessimistic forecast should be considered the most likely scenario for the development of events. from the above comparative analysis It can be seen that housing prices are extremely volatile due to the following reasons:

1.) the impact of Western sanctions;

Western sanctions came into effect at a time when Russia had the highest pace and volume of housing construction, the largest number of mortgage loans taken by individuals and the most affordable interest rates by them.

The consequences of sanctions on the real estate market can be divided into two categories: what happened and what is expected.

Among the events worth noting:

1. Foreign investors postpone the implementation of development projects in Russia (in various market segments) until the situation in Ukraine is resolved.

2. Banks analyze incoming new development projects more carefully.

3. Real estate as an asset (especially residential real estate - apartments in the primary and secondary markets) has increased its attractiveness for private investors.

Regarding the expected consequences of sanctions on the real estate market, we can say the following:

1. Banks are expected to increase interest rates on consumer and mortgage loans due to rising costs Money On the market. At the same time, a number of banks can independently limit the activity of mortgage borrowers by setting artificially high interest rates.

2. Decrease in the volume of financing of investment development projects by banks may cause a decrease in the volume of new construction in 2015.

3. The rental housing market may lose an audience consisting of foreigners working in Russia under a contract or in Western companies, whose activity may significantly decrease during the period of sanctions. (The author will also note that at the same time, the opposite processes can occur in the rental housing market: if the value of real estate falls, then banks will have to increase interest rates on mortgage loans. This will significantly reduce purchasing power citizens, which will lead to an increase in the number of tenants).

4. Largest Russian banks are more likely to continue lending to development projects that are in the active/final stage of construction readiness.”

2.) the influence of the currency factor;

The first approach: the impact of the exchange rate on the housing market.

An important element of economic relations associated with the acquisition of housing is the exchange rate. The exchange rate has an impact on various indicators that connect the buyer and seller in the housing market. The exchange rate is the ratio of two monetary units to foreign exchange market, which is formed depending on the supply and demand of a particular currency, as well as on a number of other factors.

Depending on the ratio of supply and demand of a particular currency, the exchange rate is most often determined, which is why it cannot be a constant value, since demand and supply in the foreign exchange market are constantly changing.

The second approach: the impact of housing prices on the national currency.

There is a direct relationship between the price of real estate and the exchange rate of the national currency; when the value of real estate falls, the exchange rate also decreases. national currency. This dependence is due to the fact that, as a rule, a decrease in the cost of housing indicates unfavorable processes in the economy - an increase in unemployment, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population. All this leads to a decrease in demand for real estate.

Based on the above, in the current real estate market conditions, the first approach will be more reflected. The second is the most probable given the stable development of the economy.

3.) the influence of socio-demographic factors.

It is generally accepted that the formation of needs in the market cannot be controlled. However, needs arise and change according to certain patterns, an important part of which is the mentality, way of life of the population. Of these, we consider in more detail the following most important, in the opinion of the author, factors:

1. Number of inhabitants locality has a significant impact on the structure of consumption, primarily due to a higher level of income in large settlements.

2. Consumer behavior is also influenced by situational criteria. Currently, these include the work of the state aimed at stimulating the development of housing construction by increasing the availability of various social programs, in particular:

Maternity capital (program valid until 2016 inclusive);

military mortgage;

Social mortgage;

Mortgage under the Young Family program, etc.

3. In the summer of 2014, the state made changes to the rules for mortgage lending. On July 25, Law No. 169-FZ “On Amendments to Articles 31 and 61 of the Federal Law “On Mortgage (Pledge of Real Estate)” came into force. The changes in the law contain two important points. First, banks will be able to insure their financial risks in case they need to foreclose on the collateral and its value is less than the amount of the debt. The second - the availability of such insurance (from the bank or from the borrower) exempts the borrower from subsequent payments on the loan. The same happens in case of bankruptcy of the insurer that issued such insurance.

Summing up the foregoing, we believe it can be said that the imposition of sanctions will certainly have a negative impact on all areas of the Russian economy. Regarding the housing market, it should be noted that due to sanctions, mortgage lending rates are rising and this segment of the housing market will lose a significant number of consumers. But against this background, the rental market, on the contrary, is able to increase its area of ​​distribution. Thus, that part of the population that previously planned to purchase housing on a mortgage may abandon this idea in favor of a rental mechanism, i.e. it will be more profitable to rent housing at relatively stable prices (the projected rental price is from 10,000 to 15,600 rubles / month, depending on the nature of the forecast) than to apply for a mortgage in conditions of currency instability (for example, as of March 24, 2015, the ratio of the dollar to the ruble is 1/58, 28, and on 03/14/2015 it was 1/61.32)

Now there is a sharp rise in the entire housing market as a whole, this is due to the fact that, due to the appreciation of the dollar, people tend to sell their money in real estate, but this trend cannot be long-term and promising, because. Consumers are forced to take such actions by constant tension over the exchange rate, which can ultimately lead to inflation or, moreover, to the collapse of the Russian monetary system.

The socio-demographic factor, of course, does not have such a big impact on the real estate market as, for example, the currency factor, but without them, the housing market, in principle, cannot exist as such, since the speed, construction volumes, mortgages, rent, etc. are determined precisely on the basis of an analysis of various, mostly non-economic factors. The birth rate, population, average income of a person, the number of young families and other social indicators - these are the most common ideas about the real estate market and the country's development potential.

In general, the residential real estate market is a combination of many economic and non-economic factors, which, either individually or in combination, provide an idea of ​​the economic situation in a particular market segment.

The three forecasts presented by the author reflect economic essence the influence of various factors on the mechanisms of housing acquisition. In the conditions of an unstable economic situation in the country, it is impossible to speak with full confidence about the effectiveness or inefficiency of real estate management, however, as studies have shown, the segment of the real estate market - the housing market, remains the most fundamental in relation to other elements of the economy and due to the funds raised, it can relatively maneuver smoothly between the changing external environment.

2.2 ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF OFFICE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

In the commercial real estate market, namely in the office real estate segment, in our opinion, three directional sectors have formed:

The first sector - includes prestigious offices that meet international standards for administrative premises. From here we can conclude that the rent in such premises is often very high. This becomes the main reason why some Russian entrepreneurs rent first-class offices abroad at more affordable prices.

In the second sector, we included offices that are located in well-finished and equipped premises, and recently the practice of buying out large apartments with subsequent high-quality repairs has become popular. Here, rental payments are quite acceptable for successfully operating companies. There is a constant active demand in this sector.

As the third sector, we defined premises in the buildings of the municipal and departmental non-residential fund, state enterprises (mainly scientific institutions), cooperative and private enterprises. These are premises without finishing and repair, and other related services. Rents here are usually not high at all.

In our opinion, freedom of entrepreneurship leads to the creation of more and more new business structures, which, first of all, will need premises for their functioning, which means that the office space market has more than a good development prospect.

Rice. 2.2.1 The ratio of classes of business centers in Kazan at the end of 2014

The Kazan office real estate market includes high-quality business centers of all three classes: A, B, and C. As of the end of 2014, the city's provision with high-quality office real estate is 183 sq. m. m per 1,000 inhabitants.

Category B offices are similar in most characteristics to class A offices, however, they are not as prestigious, have a less favorable location, and not as wide a range of services as class A offices. Practice shows - in the category of class B, sometimes offices of the highest category pass. This happens, for example, after several years of intensive use. The factor of quality standards also plays an important role here. Technologies are in constant dynamics, so what used to be "the latest" is gradually moving into the category of "new".

The total supply of office space in the city of Kazan is over 410,000 sq.m. Of these, about 210 thousand square meters. m refers to a quality proposal.

As it is right, in big cities, the demand for high-quality office space remains stable. The vast majority of business centers of class "A" in Kazan has almost 100% occupancy, namely, such business centers as: "Business Center Suvar Plaza", "Korston", "Business Park Idea". Class "B" objects also have a fairly high occupancy rate, it ranges from 85% to 90%. Speaking about the demand for office premises, we should mention the fact that recently there has been a tendency to shift business activity to the outskirts of Kazan. This is most influenced by such factors as: insufficient transport accessibility (traffic jams), lack of parking spaces or their payment.

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Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of real estate valuation

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

1.3 Types of property values

1.4 Basic principles of real estate appraisal

1.5 Factors affecting property value

Chapter 2. Valuation of a residential property

2.2 Valuation of residential property using the income approach

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

2.4 Property valuation using the cost approach

2.5 Coordination of real estate valuation results

Chapter 3. Suggestions for improving real estate valuation methods

Conclusion

List of used literature and sources

Application

INTRODUCTION

Among the elements of a market economy, a special place is occupied by real estate, which acts as a means of production (land, administrative, industrial, warehouse, retail and other buildings and premises, as well as other structures) and an object or object of consumption (land plots, residential buildings, cottages, apartments, garages).

Real estate is the basis of personal existence for citizens and serves as the basis for economic activity and development of enterprises and organizations of all forms of ownership. In Russia, there is an active formation and development of the real estate market and an increasing number of citizens, enterprises and organizations are involved in real estate transactions.

Thanks to the constructive interaction between the state and appraisers, the process of property appraisal in recent years has become much more civilized compared to the times when an independent appraisal in Russia was just in its infancy. Today, the activities of appraisers are regulated by the relevant federal law and standards in the field of appraisal.

The purpose of the thesis is to develop proposals for improving methods for assessing residential real estate.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

Describe the essence of housing appraisal;

To characterize methodological approaches to real estate appraisal;

Valuate residential real estate using a cost, comparative and income approach;

Conduct a comparative analysis of the evaluation results;

Develop proposals for improving the methodology for assessing residential real estate.

The object of research in the thesis is the valuation of residential real estate, and the subject of research is the methods and approaches to the valuation of residential real estate.

The methodological basis of the research carried out in the thesis work is the scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of real estate valuation S.V. Gribovsky, E.I. Tarasevich, M.A. Fedotova, D. Fridman.

In the first chapter of the thesis "Methodological position for assessing the value of real estate" disclosed the types of value of real estate, their classification. The factors influencing the value of real estate objects, as well as the basic principles of real estate valuation are considered.

The second chapter "Residential Property Valuation" presents the results of the property valuation - two-room apartment, located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk, using the income and comparative approach, as well as the results of calculating the salvage value of the property.

The third chapter "Suggestions for improving residential real estate valuation methods" presents the main directions for improving existing approaches to residential real estate valuation.

Chapter 1

1.1 The need for an independent home appraisal

Assessment - the science of applied economic analysis, the main task of which is to establish the most probable price for the sale or purchase of an asset (goods) based on an analysis of the dynamics of the forces of supply and demand for this asset in the relevant market. From a formal point of view, the most probable price is set on the basis of modeling a certain set of demand factors and a set of supply factors.

Currently, real estate valuation activities are regulated by the Federal Law "On valuation activities in the Russian Federation" dated 06.08.98 No. 135 - FZ.

The current situation in the real estate market contributes to the active development of real estate valuation in our country.

The real estate market is currently one of the most dynamic markets in our country, one of the most attractive investment objects. It is becoming very important right now, when the situation in the world is very unstable: experts cannot give accurate forecasts about oil prices, they predict a depreciation of the dollar, - real estate remains practically the only guarantor of the safety of savings.

The main directions of development of the Russian appraisal can be determined based on the list of operations in which it is necessary to evaluate real estate objects. It should be noted that this list is constantly expanding.

An objective assessment of various types of value (market, investment, collateral, insurance, taxable and others) of real estate is necessary:

When buying, selling or renting;

When corporatizing enterprises and redistributing property shares;

To attract new shareholders and additional issue of shares;

When cadastral valuation for the purposes of taxation of real estate objects: buildings and land plots;

For real estate insurance;

When lending secured by real estate;

When making real estate objects as a contribution to authorized capital enterprises and organizations;

When developing investment projects and attracting investors, including foreign ones;

Upon liquidation of real estate objects;

When executing inheritance rights, a court sentence;

In other transactions related to the sale of property rights to real estate.

There are three main approaches to property valuation:

Cost method: the cost of complete reproduction or the cost of complete replacement of the property being valued is estimated, then the amount of the estimated depreciation of buildings and structures is subtracted and the value of the land plot is added as free. This approach may be necessary when the valuation of an object for the purposes of property taxation or property seizure requires the separation of the value of buildings and structures from the value of land. It is also used for income tax and accounting purposes: depreciation of buildings and structures is deducted from taxable income. Other situations to apply:

Feasibility study for new construction,

Determination of the option of the best and most efficient use of land,

Update,

Final price negotiation

Buildings for institutional and special purposes,

Purposes of insurance.

Market comparison method: estimating the market value of a property based on recent transactions with similar properties. It is assumed that a rational investor or buyer will not pay more for a particular property than it would cost to acquire another similar property with the same utility.

Income method: the value of a property is determined by the amount, quality and duration of the period of receipt of the benefits that this property is expected to bring in the future.

In Russia, in recent years, the cost method has been widespread in assessing the value of objects. Moreover, its use was declared by the Government when developing property revaluation programs. This led to the fact that the cost of fixed assets, real estate was very underestimated. Now the process of revaluation of such objects is of particular importance, which can be done based on the market method of valuation.

To date, the number of appraisal organizations in Russian market much. As of the end of 2004, more than 9,000 companies and PBOYuL in Russia have state licenses to carry out appraisal activities. Now the market is regulated by the Ministry of Economic Development, but from January 1, 2006, a transition to self-regulation is underway.

At the present stage, the appraisal market is characterized by increasing competition, improving quality, and reducing the cost of services. In particular, the demand for valuation in order to reflect assets in financial statements in accordance with IAS, US GAAP or Russian accounting standards is constantly increasing; assessment of the value of intangible assets to determine the effectiveness of marketing and brand strategies; valuation for the purpose of making purchase and sale transactions, lease of assets, M&A and other transactions for the transfer of ownership and other property rights; valuation for the purposes of insurance, additional issue of shares or buyback of shares during the privatization of state-owned enterprises; appraisal for the purpose of lending secured by property, etc. .

According to the results of a study by the Expert RA rating agency, the most demanded services over the past year and a half were real estate and business valuation services in general. The share of these areas in the overall market structure accounted for 34.3% and 32.1%, respectively.

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

Valuation of real estate is of interest primarily for objects that are actively circulating on the market as an independent product. Currently, in Russia these are apartments and rooms, office premises and office buildings, suburban residential buildings with land plots, free land plots for development and (or) for other purposes. Real estate objects also include mineral deposits, the Russian market of which has not yet been formed. Below we consider the general principles for classifying real estate objects.

The first category of real estate objects. The term “real estate” in our case refers to any product that is rigidly connected to a piece of land, its transfer to another place is impossible without destruction and loss of consumer value. The proposed wording aims to promote a differentiated approach to the assessment of various categories of real estate objects, taking into account their most significant features, features of trade turnover, the structure and scale of markets within which real estate purchase and sale processes take place. Since a variety of conditions and their combinations affect the valuation of a property, the "feature tree" method was used to classify (group). Such a classification (grouping) is multilevel. At each level, it is carried out on its own basis with their possible differences at the same level, but along different “branches”. At the same time, the depth (number of levels) of the classification is greater for those branches on which more representative (in terms of their assessment) objects are located.

Each level has its own name and a set of recommended values ​​for the corresponding classification attribute.

1. Origin.

2. Appointment.

3. Scale.

3.1 Land areas.

3.2. Separate land plots.

3.3. Complexes of buildings and structures (cottage settlement, microdistrict, hotel, sanatorium, etc.)

3.3.1. Residential building multi-apartment.

3.3.2. Residential house single-family (mansion, cottage).

3.3.3. Section (entrance).

3.3.4. Floor in section.

3.3.5. Apartment.

3.3.6. Room.

3.3.7. Summer cottage.

3.4. complex of administrative buildings.

3.4.1. Building.

3.4. Premises or parts of buildings (sections, floors).

4. Ready for use.

4.1. Ready.

4.2. Requiring reconstruction or major repairs.

4.3. Requiring completion of construction.

Since the apartment market is currently the most developed sector of the real estate market in Russia, it makes sense to focus on studying this particular sector in order to develop basic methodological approaches to assessing the value of real estate.

In the formed western market, another one is adopted, which differs from the classification of real estate objects proposed above into categories A, B and C.

It is divided into the following classes:

1) Specialized real estate, adapted to the conduct of a specific business and usually sold with the business.

Examples: oil refineries, chemical plants, workshops for the placement of machinery and equipment; buildings that, due to their location, size, construction, are never sold or rented to a third party on the market.

2) Non-specialized real estate - ordinary buildings - shops, offices, factories, warehouses, which are usually sold or rented out.

The classification of real estate objects according to various characteristics (criteria) contributes to a more successful research of the real estate market and facilitates the development and application of methods for estimating the value of various categories of real estate. In the process of classification, separate groups of real estate are distinguished, which determines the possibility of uniform approaches to their valuation.

1.3 Types of property values

At the initial stage of real estate appraisal, the expert appraiser always faces the difficult problem of choosing the type of value for appraisal calculations. This choice depends on many factors (the nature of the object and the evaluation functions) and determines the subsequent choice of the method of valuation of this property. If the valuation of real estate property is carried out in order to obtain mortgage loan(loans secured by real estate property), it is important for the appraiser to have reliable information about the most likely sale price of this real estate property if the borrower (property owner) does not repay the dollar (loan). When assessing real estate for tax purposes in Western countries, the market or replacement value of the property is used, based on the cost of reproduction of the latter. When evaluating objects to be reconstructed, as a rule, the investment value is chosen, i.e. the value of the property for a particular investor.

When evaluating buildings for special purposes, real estate in the "passive" sectors of the real estate market, when there is not enough information to determine the market value, as well as when evaluating for the purposes of real estate insurance, the replacement cost or replacement cost is used.

Market price

In market economic conditions, the most common type of value of real estate is the market value. Market value is the most likely price that a property should achieve in a competitive and open market under all conditions of fair trade, conscious action by the seller and buyer, and without the influence of illegal incentives.

It is understood that in a sale and purchase transaction, the transfer of rights from the seller to the buyer is subject to the following conditions.

1. The motivation of the buyer and the seller are typical, i.e. they operate without undue pressure or extraordinary life circumstances.

2. Both parties are well informed, consulted and act, in their opinion, taking into account their maximum interests.

3. The property was put up for sale on the market for a sufficient amount of time (sufficient for potential buyers to get acquainted with the information about the sale of real estate and make a decision to purchase the property).

4. Payment was made on the terms of financing the deal.

5. The price is normal, not affected by the specific conditions of financing and sale.

The market value of real estate is otherwise called the value in exchange - in contrast to the value in use (or value in use), which reflects the value of the object for a particular owner.

The concept of market value is based on the fact that a typical buyer in the real estate market has the opportunity to choose alternative properties. The market value is objective, independent of the desires of individual participants in the real estate market and reflects the real economic conditions that are developing in this market.

Cost in use (value in use)

Value in use (value in use) reflects the value of a property for a particular owner who is not going to put the property on the real estate market. The assessment of the consumer value of an object is made on the basis of the existing profile of its use and those financial and economic parameters that were observed during the prehistory of the operation of the object and are predicted in the future.

Investment cost

The concept of "investment value", similar to the concept of "value in use", means the value of the property for a specific investor who is going to buy or invest in the property being valued. The calculation of the investment value is made on the basis of the income expected by this investor and the specific rate of their capitalization. The investment value is usually calculated when evaluating an investment project or an income-generating object for a particular investor. This type of value is subjective.

Replacement cost (cost of reproduction of an object)

The replacement cost (the cost of reproducing an object) is determined by the costs in current prices for the construction of an exact copy of the object being evaluated, in its “new” state (without depreciation), using the same architectural solutions, building structures and materials, as well as with the same quality of construction - installation works. In this case, the same obsolescence of the object and the same shortcomings in architectural solutions are reproduced that the evaluated object had.

replacement cost

The replacement cost is determined by the costs in current prices for the construction of a facility that has an estimated equivalent utility, but built in a new architectural style, using modern design standards and progressive materials and structures, as well as modern equipment of the property. Thus, the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of reproducing an exact copy of the object, and the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of creating an object of a functional analogue.

Insurance value

The insured value is calculated on the basis of either the replacement cost or the replacement cost of an object that is at risk of destruction (or destruction). On the basis of the insured value of the object, the sums insured, insurance payments and insurance interest are determined.

Value for tax purposes (taxable value)

The value for the purposes of taxation of property of legal entities and individuals is determined by accredited tax inspections by expert appraisers on the basis of either the market value or the replacement value of the property, or the appraisal is carried out formally according to the normative methodology without the involvement of expert appraisers.

Liquidation value

The salvage value is the net amount of money that the owner of the property can receive when the property is liquidated.

1.4 Basic principles of real estate appraisal

The principles of real estate appraisal can be grouped into the following four groups:

Principles based on perceptions of use;

Principles related to real estate (land, buildings, structures);

Principles related to the market environment;

The principle of the best and most efficient use of the property.

All the considered principles of real estate valuation are interconnected. When evaluating a property, it is necessary, if possible, to take into account all or the main principles of valuation in order to obtain a more reliable and accurate assessment of the value of the property.

User Principles

Principles based on user perceptions include the principles of utility, substitution, and expectation.

The principle of utility is that any property has value only if it is useful to some investor and can be used to implement certain functions or personal needs, for example, the use of real estate as a hotel, cafe, office, museum, etc. .d. Utility is the ability of a property to satisfy a user's needs at a given location and for a given period of time.

The principle of substitution states that a rational (typical) buyer will not pay more for a property than the minimum price charged for another similar property of the same utility. The maximum value of the object being valued is determined by the lowest cost at which another similar object with equivalent utility can be acquired.

The expectation principle is related to the representation of the user of the property and says: the value of the income-generating object is determined by the amount of cash flow expected from the use of the property being valued, as well as the amount expected from its resale. It is important for what period of time the expected income will be received, since the investor's ruble today is worth more than the ruble that will be received tomorrow.

Principles related to the requirements for a land plot, buildings and structures that are located on it

This group includes the following principles:

Residual productivity (productivity) of the land;

marginal productivity (contribution principle);

Balance (principle of proportionality);

Optimal values;

Optimal division of property rights.

The principle of residual productivity of the land.

The principle of residual productivity (or productivity) states that land value is based on its residual productivity (productivity). To understand this position, it is necessary to recognize that any kind of activity, as a rule, requires the presence of four components of production: capital, labor, management and land.

Land is a piece of land and the Natural resources- closed reservoirs, wildlife, vegetation and minerals. The territorial boundaries of the land plot are determined in the manner prescribed by the current land legislation, and are drawn up by a certificate issued to the owner (or tenant) government bodies on land management. Land is the main factor that provides the space and resources needed for any type of productive activity.

Labor is a set of work on the production of goods (services) and its implementation in the market. IN this concept management activities are not included.

Capital is money invested in the reproduction of fixed assets and working capital, as well as in other components of production - labor, land and management.

The management of production activities includes the knowledge, skills, entrepreneurial abilities and talent of the management personnel of the enterprise. Successful management allows you to optimize production and maximize profits.

Each component of production (capital, labor, management and land) must be covered from business income. However, since the land is physically immovable, and other components are attracted to it for entrepreneurial activities, labor, capital and management are paid first of all, and the rest of the income is paid to the owner of the land as rent. Such a judgment is consistent with the main provisions of economic theory - land has a "residual value" and a certain value only when there is a residual income after covering the other three components of production. Thus, residual productivity is expressed as income accruing to land, after paying for the costs of labor, capital and management.

The principle of marginal productivity (principle of contribution).

The principle of marginal productivity (or productivity) or the principle of contribution means that as a result of investment, income should be received, remaining after covering costs. With regard to the real estate market, this principle can be interpreted as follows. Often, the cost of repairing an apartment allows you to increase its value, and in amounts that significantly exceed the cost of repairing it. In this case, the principle of marginal productivity or the principle of contribution is realized. The amount of the contribution corresponds to the difference between the price received as a result of the repair of the apartment and the cost of this repair.

The principle of increasing and decreasing returns.

The essence of this principle is that an increase in capital investments in the main components of production causes an increase in the growth rate of profits only up to a certain limit, after which the increase in profits becomes less than the increase in capital investments. This limit corresponds to the maximum value of the property. Any subsequent investment in real estate will not give a proportional increase in profits, and therefore a proportional increase in the value of the property.

Therefore, the appraiser must first analyze the various options for using the land. For example, to perform calculations of profit from the construction of various types of real estate objects or a different number of objects on a given land plot. Only after that he will be able to make the final choice of the type of property for construction on this site. In the process of variant design of various combinations of production components and determination of the maximum profit on this basis, the principle of increasing and decreasing profitability is implemented.

The principle of balance.

The principle of balance (or the principle of proportionality) is formulated as follows: the components of production (or real estate) must be combined with each other in a certain proportion. If the volume of capital investments exceeds the volume of work in a given period of time, for example, in the construction of an object, then there is a “capital freeze” and a decrease in the overall efficiency of the project. A similar situation is possible when at a given moment in time there are not enough funds for the construction of a property, which is well known to investors in new construction. In this regard, the regulatory documents as part of the design documentation for the construction of the facility provide for the development of calendar schedules for the construction of the facility in order to obtain the maximum possible effect from the implementation of the project.

The principle of optimal values.

The principle of optimal values ​​(principle of optimal economic value), given the trends prevailing in the real estate market, a certain (optimal) value of a given type of property is in great demand. An expert appraiser should always keep in mind the principle of optimal values ​​and use it when evaluating real estate of this type.

The principle of optimal division of property rights.

Property rights to a property should be divided and combined in such a way as to increase the total value of the property. The current legislation of the Russian Federation allows the division and sale of property rights separately. Ownership refers to the right to own, use and dispose of property. In addition to the right of ownership, property rights are the right of lifetime inheritable possession, the right of permanent (perpetual) property use, the right of economic possession and the right of operational management, as well as various kinds of easements - the right of limited use of the property. Moreover, the transfer of ownership of property to another person is not a basis for the termination of other property rights, such as lease rights to this property.

The division of property rights to a real estate object can be carried out as follows:

1. Physical separation is the division of a property into parts: basement, floors, etc. For a land plot - the division of rights to the airspace, to the surface of the earth and to its subsoil, the division of the land mass into separate plots.

2. Separation by time of ownership - different types of lease, lifetime ownership, future property rights, etc.

3. Separation of the totality of property rights of ownership - the right of possession, fixed-term or perpetual use, disposal, lifelong (inherited) possession, economic management, operational management and the right to limited use of the property.

4. The division of property rights among the participants - joint lease, partnership, joint-stock companies, options, trusts, contracts with agreed terms of sale.

5. Separations by liens - mortgages, tax liens, judicial liens, equity.

The use in the practice of property relations of the above types of separation of the totality of property rights and their optimal combination allows you to increase the value of real estate.

Principles related to the market environment

This group of principles includes the principles of dependence, conformity, supply and demand, competition and the principle of change.

Dependency Principle

The principle of dependence (or the principle of external influence) states: various environmental factors affect the value of a property. These factors - depending on the degree of their influence on a particular object - are divided into main and additional; depending on the sphere of influence - on climatic, geological, regional, social, economic, environmental, demographic, legal, international, urban planning, industry and technical. In its turn economic forces can also be differentiated according to various criteria: financial, regulatory and others. An expert appraiser must remember that in all cases, location is the main factor affecting the value of a property, and the analysis of the value of real estate should begin with it. The main factors also include the proximity of the property to a developed infrastructure (connection with the user's market): roads, shopping and cultural centers, etc., i.е. the evaluator needs to establish how the revenue streams are related to the user market. These two factors - the location of the object and its relationship with the user's market - together make up the concept of "economic location of real estate. This total factor has the greatest impact on the value of the property. The expert appraiser must identify and measure the impact of environmental factors on:

The value of the property being valued and make appropriate adjustments to that value using the sales comparison method;

The amount of cash flow using the income approach;

Cost level when determining replacement cost or replacement cost using the cost approach.

The principle of conformity.

The conformity principle states that a property that does not meet current market standards has a lower value. An expert appraiser must not only know the compliance standards for a given real estate market, but also monitor their development trends in order to anticipate the future value of the property being valued.

The principle of supply and demand.

Demand for a property is a real need for them. Supply is the number of objects available on the real estate market and the limited supply of it.

The essence of the principle of supply and demand is to identify the relationship between the need for a property and the limited supply of it.

Demand for a property is determined by its usefulness (the ability to meet the needs of the user) and availability, but is limited by the solvency of potential consumers. The lower the demand and the higher the supply, the lower the cost of the object. Conversely, if demand and supply are balanced in the real estate market, the market value of the object will stabilize.

Expert appraisers should remember that, as a rule, demand for real estate objects is more subject to fluctuations than supply, since a sharp change in the money supply (for example, as a result of the bankruptcy of financial companies) and emotional moods at the time of a real estate transaction, etc. occur in shorter time periods than the construction of real estate, which creates additional supply on the market. Knowledge of this ability in the ratio of supply and demand allows an expert appraiser to more accurately predict the value of a property.

For residential premises, the ratio of supply and demand depends on the demographic composition of the population, the level of prices for real estate and consumer goods, the intensity of the advertising campaign, new laws and regulations, the cost of loans, property taxation and other factors.

The expert appraiser must predict the ratio of supply and demand for the property being valued, determine the degree of influence of this ratio and all of the above factors on the value of real estate.

The principle of competition.

Competition is rivalry, competition in any kind of activity. All human beings are inherently competitive. Competition or rivalry increases dramatically when it comes to excess profits in some kind of activity. The real estate market is no exception in this respect. If super profits are made in the real estate market (this is a profit that is much higher than the usually formed level of profit in this sector of the market), entrepreneurs tend to get into this market. Increasing competition leads to an increase in supply in the market. If demand does not increase, real estate prices in this case decrease, and the profit of entrepreneurs decreases. Conversely, when competition weakens, supply decreases and, if demand does not decrease, prices for real estate objects and entrepreneurs' profits rise.

Reasonable competition stimulates the improvement of the quality of objects and services in the real estate market, while excessive competition leads to a decrease in profits.

In the absence of competition in the real estate market (and this happens with monopoly competition), the market value of an object cannot be determined, since the market value is formed only in a competitive market.

The principle of change.

Both the property itself (for example, physical wear and tear) and all environmental factors affecting the value of the property are subject to change.

The most characteristic types of changes are the so-called cycles of life. These changes also affect the real estate objects themselves, as well as districts (cities), industries, and society as a whole.

The following main cycles of life are distinguished.

1. Origin (design, construction of an object, formation of an industry, region, etc.).

2. Growth (a period of growth in income from the operation of a real estate object, the rapid development of a district (city), industry, etc.).

3. Stability, equilibrium period (stable income, formed tastes of consumers of real estate objects, formed infrastructure of the area, etc.).

4. Decline (a period of decrease in demand for real estate, a decrease in profits, a decline in production in the industry, etc.).

Taking into account life cycles, an expert appraiser must analyze and predict legislative, demographic, international, scientific and technical, urban and social processes, as well as the reaction of the real estate market to them.

The principle of best and most efficient use

The principle of the highest and best use is formulated as follows: it is the reasonable and possible use of it, providing the highest current value of the object on the effective date of valuation.

Another definition of this principle is also known: it is such an option for using a property, selected among reasonable and possible ones, which leads to the highest value of land. Such a definition of the principle usually refers to the assessment of buildings and structures with significant wear, as well as the assessment of free land.

If the cost of a building (construction) is determined, then when evaluating this type of real estate, one should be guided by the first definition of the principle of the best and most efficient use. In this case, when choosing possible options for using this object, it is possible to exclude the option adopted at the time of assessment, since such use of real estate is limited to a time period until the value of the land plot at its best and most efficient use exceeds the value of the entire property complex (land and buildings) combined with the costs of demolition of the building.

This principle is basic (basic) for the implementation of all three approaches to valuation, and its interpretation is of particular importance in each specific case, as it affects the choice of the type of value. When determining the most probable sale price of a property (the market value of the property), the following interpretation of this principle is most appropriate: “the most likely use of the existing property”, while in determining the investment value, the emphasis in the interpretation is on “the most efficient use of the property”.

Analysis of the best and most efficient use of the property is carried out in two stages: the first analyzes the best and most efficient use of the land, as if it were free, and the second - the best and most efficient use of the building (structure) located on this site .

1.5 Factors affecting property value

As in any other pricing mechanisms, the value of real estate depends on a set of objective and subjective factors, of which only the latter are related to the behavior of a particular seller, buyer and (or) intermediary at the stage of concluding a transaction. Subjective factors include, for example, temperament, knowledge, honesty, patience, personal likes and dislikes of participants in a real estate transaction, etc. Within the framework of my diploma, these factors related to the field of psychology are not considered, and the main attention is paid to objective factors and their influence on the valuation of real estate.

Objective factors are mainly economic, ultimately determining the average price level of specific transactions.

Economic factors are divided into macroeconomic and microeconomic. The first include factors related to the general market situation: the initial level of security of demand for real estate in the region; volumes and structure of new construction and reconstruction; migration factors; legal and economic conditions of transactions (taxes, duties, etc.); level and dynamics of inflation. Macroeconomic factors also include long-term factors: the difference in the dynamics of prices for goods (services) and wage conditions, affecting the scale of accumulation of funds and the amount of deferred demand; the pace and scale of the formation of a new social stratum of "rich people" who have the opportunity to invest in real estate; development of a system of foreign missions in the region, etc.

CHAPTER 2. ASSESSMENT OF THE OBJECT OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

2.1 Description of the property

The object of assessment is a separate apartment, consisting of two living rooms.

The purpose of the appraisal is to determine the value of the above property.

The real estate object is understood as the actual object, which is real property, and the legal rights to it.

The act of inspection of the object

Object address: Russia, Novosibirsk, Krasny prospect, 171/2, apt. 27. Owner: Abramenko N.I. BTI certificates No. 78965784. The apartment is privatized.

The object is located along the metro line (on the right bank), the transport network is well developed. To the metro station "Zaeltsovskaya" 10 min. on foot. Nearby are the exhibition center "Siberian Fair", a casino, a nightclub, a hairdresser's, a sports and fitness center, a cultural center "Energy", a cinema "Progress-Kinomir", a 10-minute walk from the Botanical Garden.

The nearest micro market is located 10 minutes walk.

An analysis of the location area allows you to give a high assessment of the labor market in the area in which the object of assessment is located. Proximity to shops, educational institutions is rated satisfactorily. Quality utilities, as well as services for the protection of public order is assessed satisfactorily.

Kindergarten, clinic are 5 minutes from home, schools are quite remote (15 - 20 minutes).

Environmental conditions are poor due to the proximity of factories - the Novosibirsk Electrovacuum Plant, the Ekran plant, the plant named after. Lenin, Novosibirsk Semiconductor Plant.

Characteristics of the house.

Wall material - panel. The total number of floors is 5. The height of the floors is 2.2 m. The house is removed from the roadway, located in the yards.

Year of construction - 1975. The general appearance of the building is good.

Water supply - central, heating - central, ventilation - natural, energy supply - central.

Information about the apartment:

Two-room apartment is located on the 2nd floor of the house. The total area of ​​the apartment is 42 sq. m, living area - 28 sq. m (one room - 18 sq.m, the second - 10 sq.m). The kitchen area is 6 square meters. m, the bathroom occupies 3.5 sq.m. The apartment has a balcony, telephone. Windows are oriented to the west. The general view of the apartment is satisfactory.

The layout of the apartment and the scheme of its location in the entrance are presented in Appendix 1.

Thus, the analysis of the location and state of the object in the first approximation allows us to talk about a fairly high cost of the object.

The assessment was made in accordance with the following assumptions:

A special examination of engineering networks was not carried out;

The object of assessment does not have any hidden defects, including defects load-bearing frame buildings that could affect its value;

The property complies with all sanitary and environmental standards;

Reliable sources of information were used in the assessment.

2.2 Valuation of residential property using the income approach

Real estate valuation by direct capitalization method

To calculate the capitalization rate for residential property valuation purposes, the simplified Elwood method should be used.

R= Υ - App * (SFS) = CHOD / TS, (1.1)

where R - capitalization rate;

Υ - rate of return on equity;

App - possible increase in the value of property for the period;

SFS is the repayment factor at the rate Υ for the projected holding period;

CHOD - net operating income;

TC is the present value.

Net operating income can be determined using the following formula:

CHOD \u003d EVD - PR, (1.2)

where EI is the effective gross income, which is defined as follows:

EVD \u003d PVD - PP + DD, (1.3)

where PVH is the potential gross income for 1 year, assuming that the object is fully leased,

PP - estimated losses from unemployment opportunities (3%),

DD - other income.

Υ - represents the real income that suits the typical investor.

The fund repayment rate is determined by the following formula:

SFS= i / (l+i)n-1 , (1.4)

where n is the number of periods;

i - discount rate (rate of return on equity).

Using the direct capitalization method, we will determine the cost of a two-room apartment acquired in order to receive rental income with subsequent sale.

Rent - 12000 rubles. / month Possible downtime - 3% Operating costs - 1200 rubles. /month The rate of return on equity is 15%. The tenure is 5 years. The planned cost increase is 40%.

The repayment rate under the indicated conditions will be 0.086:

SFS = 0.15 / (1+ 0.15) 5-1 = 0.086.

Then the capitalization rate will be equal to 0.1583:

R = 0.15 - 0.40 * 0.139 = 0.0944.

The effective gross income calculated by formula (1.3) will be equal to 139680 rubles:

EVD \u003d 12000 * 12 - 12000 * 12 * 0.03 \u003d 139680 rubles.

Net operating income from owning a property under these conditions will be 125,280 rubles:

CHOD \u003d 139680 - 1200 * 12 \u003d 125280 rubles.

The current value of the property can be determined by the formula:

TS = CHOD / R, (1.5)

where R - capitalization rate;

CHOD - net operating income from the ownership of a property.

So, the current value of the assessed residential property will be 1,327,118.6 rubles:

TS \u003d 125280 / 0.0944 \u003d 1327118.6 pyb.

At the next stage of the assessment, we will determine the value of the object by discounting future income.

Discounting future income is a method used to evaluate income-generating real estate objects as a current value, expected future benefits from owning an object.

The future benefits of real estate transactions are as follows:

The frequency of receipt in the form of net operating income during the ownership of the facility;

Reversion - proceeds from the sale of the object after the expiration of the holding period.

The current value of the property is determined as follows:

TS = TS (PPD) + TS (P), (1.6)

where PPD is the frequency of income flows;

Ρ - reversion;

TC is the present value.

The value of an object, calculated using the method of discounting future income, is the present value of all future cash flows and reversions taking into account the degree of risk and alternative options use.

The methodology for calculating the cost according to the proposed method is as follows.

Stage 1. Forecast of future income stream and estimated resale value of the property:

Determining the value of the forecast period;

Determining the frequency of receipt of income.

The net operating income (NOR) is used as the forecast base.

Reversion calculation, i.e. proceeds from the sale of an object, is made taking into account possible changes in the value of the property. Costs associated with sales costs are deducted from the reversion cost.

Stage 2. Discount rate calculation.

The discount rate is a factor used to calculate the present value of an amount of money received in the future.

The discount rate shows the effectiveness of capital investments, taking into account the risk of obtaining the planned amount. The discount rate is chosen as the average rate of return that investors expect to receive on their capital investments in similar properties in a given market.

Since the discount rate directly depends on the risk, it is determined by how high the average investor assesses the level of risk associated with investing money in this property.

Therefore, the higher the level of risk, the higher the discount rate and, accordingly, the present value of future income is less and less than the current value of real estate.

Stage 3. Converting the future value of cash flows to present value using the compound interest technique.

СР = ТС ± Δ = ТС (1 + j), (1.7)

where Δ - increase or decrease in the value of the object;

СР - cost of reversion;

J - the share of changes in the value of the object for the reporting period (0.4).

The current value of the property is calculated using the following formula:

where i - rate of return on equity;

n - forecast period.

Net operating income was calculated above using the direct capitalization method and amounted to 125,280 rubles for the property being valued.

Assume that we will receive income from the operation of a real estate object with a frequency of 1 time per year. In this case, the current value of the property will be 1346178 rubles:

TC = 125280 / (1+ 0.15) + 125280 / (1 + 0.15)2 + 125280 / (1+ 0.15)3 +

125280 / (1+ 0,15)4 + 125280 / (1+ 0,15)5 +

TS * (1+0.4) / (1+0.15)5 =

108939 + 94909 + 82967 + 72416 + 63273 + TS * 0.696

TC = 1346178 rubles.

During the assessment, it is possible to estimate the future value of cash flows from the property.

SR \u003d 1346178 * (1 + 0.4) \u003d 1884649 rubles,

Thus, after 5 years, the appraised apartment can be sold for 1,884,649 rubles.

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

The essence of the approach is to compare the property being valued with other properties that have been put up for sale.

The fundamental principle of the comparative approach to real estate valuation is the principle of substitution. It says that if there are several similar properties on the market, a rational buyer will not pay for an object more than the amount that it would cost to acquire another property of similar utility.

Assessment steps:

1. market research;

2. collection and verification of data;

3. analysis and comparison of data;

4. amending;

5. data reconciliation.

Market research is conducted to identify those comparable sales and properties for sale that are similar to the property being valued.

Each sale used as comparable in the appraisal report must be personally verified by the appraiser.

It is necessary to compare each object with the one being evaluated and analyze the differences:

Date of sale;

Physical characteristics;

Location;

Terms of sale.

The next step in the assessment is making adjustments. The essence of this stage is to adjust the selling prices or asking prices for each comparable object in accordance with the existing differences.

Value adjustments change the price of the sold object of the analogue by a certain amount, in which the differences in the characteristics of the object of the analogue and the object being valued are estimated.

Percentage adjustments are used to correct for differences related to transaction time, location, and physical characteristics.

successive amendments. Their peculiarity lies in the fact that, depending on the sequence of making percentage adjustments, a different result can be obtained.

Cumulative corrections are obtained by multiplying all individual corrections. In this case, the sequence is not required.

The final value is a judgment made by the appraiser based on an analysis of all available information. Simple averaging does not always lead to an accurate result, and moreover, it is not always necessary to choose one number as the cost indicator. Using a range of values ​​is more correct.

To apply the method of comparing market analogues, it is necessary to collect data on ten two-room apartments offered for sale in the Zaeltsovsky district (Siberian Fair, Botanical Garden). Data on similar apartments are presented in the table in table 1 in Appendix 2.

Each of the ten presented apartments must be characterized by the coefficients of the cost method and the results summarized in a table.

The ratio of the total and living area of ​​the apartment Ksozh - takes into account the ratio of the total area of ​​​​the apartment and its living area. It is taken equal to:

0.95 - ratio less than 1.50

1.00 - ratio from 1.50 to 1.66

1.05 - ratio from 1.66 to 2.00

1.10 - over 2.00.

The coefficient of the presence of a balcony or loggia Kbl:

If there is a balcony, this coefficient is 1.00;

In the presence of a loggia - 1.05;

In their absence - 0.95;

if there are two or more balconies or loggias - 1.10.

The Kat floor coefficient in the event that the apartment is located on the first or last floor of the building is 0.90. In all other cases - 1.00.

The isolation coefficient of the Kiz rooms is taken equal to:

1.04 - all rooms are isolated;

0.96 - adjoining rooms in two-room apartments, or more than one walk-through room in 3-6 room apartments;

1.00 - in all other cases.

The availability coefficient of the elevator Cliff is taken equal to:

1.03 - there is an elevator in houses with 5 or less floors;

1.00 - there is an elevator in houses with more than 5 floors, or not in houses with 5 or less floors;

0.97 - there is no elevator in houses with more than 5 floors.

The coefficient of the height of the premises Kvys is equal to:

0.98 - the height of the premises is less than 2.5 m;

1.00 - the height of the premises from 2.50 m to 2.80 m;

1.02 - the height of the premises from 2.80 m to 3.00 m;

1.04 - height of premises from 3.00 to 3.40 m;

1.06 - the height of the premises is over 3.40 m.

The coefficient of availability of the garbage chute K mus is taken equal to:

1.02 - available in houses with less than 5 floors;

0.97 - not in houses with more than 5 floors;

1.00 - in other cases.

Coefficient taking into account the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe kitchen Kk:

0.95 - with a kitchen area of ​​​​up to 6 square meters. m;

1.00 - with an area of ​​6 sq. m to 9 sq. m

1.02 - with an area of ​​9 sq. m to 12 sq. m;

1.10 - over 12 sq. m.

The values ​​of the coefficients for each property are presented in Table 2 in Appendix 2. The equivalent cost of a two-room apartment, calculated in Table 2, is the cost of a two-room apartment in a five-storey building with a ratio of total and living area from 1.5 to 1.66, with a balcony, on the middle floor, ceiling height more than 2.5 m, without a garbage chute, kitchen area from 6 to 9 m.

Multiplying the arithmetic average cost for ten apartments by the total area of ​​the appraised apartment and dividing by the corrective coefficients for the appraised apartment, we get the real market price of the apartment, which will be 2410714:

54 thousand rubles * 42 / (1.0 * 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.96 * 1.0 * 0.98 * 1.0 * 1.0) =

Thus, as a result of evaluating the property under study by the comparative method, it was found that the market price of a two-room apartment is 2,410,714 rubles.

2.4 Property valuation using the cost approach

According to the cost approach, the value of a property is determined by the amount of resources spent on its reproduction or replacement, taking into account physical and obsolescence.

It is rather difficult to assess the cost of an apartment using the cost approach, since it is quite difficult to estimate the costs of building one apartment, to separate their costs for the construction of a residential building as a whole.

We will evaluate the cost of the object using the cost approach on the assumption that the costs of building a house are distributed in proportion to the total area of ​​​​apartments. This assumption is conditional, but, nevertheless, it will allow you to get an approximate estimate of the cost of an apartment using a cost approach.

So, it is known that construction company LLC "Promstroy - D" plans to build a residential building on the street. Airport (in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk, in the immediate vicinity of the house where the appraisal is located). LLC "Promstroy - D" received the right to design and build this house on a plot with a total area of ​​​​3 thousand 298 square meters. m. The appraisal of the market value of the land plot and the cost of building a residential building by order of the investor was carried out by Praktika LLC. According to the pre-project documentation, the total usable area of ​​apartments in a 5-storey building will be 3,262 sq. m. m. The residential building will include 75 apartments.

According to the experts of Praktika LLC, the cost of building a house will amount to 10 million 640 thousand rubles. In this case, the construction costs of 1 sq. m. of the total area will amount to 3261.8 rubles.

The total area of ​​the property under appraisal is 42 sq. m. m. Thus, in accordance with the cost approach, the cost of restoring the object will be 136,995.6 rubles. (3261.8 rubles * 42 sq. m).

Replacement cost should be determined taking into account accumulated depreciation. The useful life of a residential building is 40 years. Depreciation on the appraised object is 30 years. Thus, when assessing, it is necessary to take into account 10/40 of the replacement cost of the object.

Estimating the value of the object by the cost approach will be:

RUB 136,995.6 * 10 / 40 \u003d 34248.9 rubles.

2.5 Reconciliation of residential real estate appraisal results

To evaluate a residential real estate object - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - the methods of income and comparative approaches were used, according to which the following results were obtained:

1. According to the method of comparing sales of analogues, the cost of the object is 2410714 rubles.

2. As part of the income approach:

3. In accordance with the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34248.9 rubles.

The definition of salvage value is found in the Russian valuation practice quite rare, which affects the low level of methodological support for this type of assessment.

The only factor that affects the value of the liquidation value and distinguishes it from the market value is the “forced sale” factor, which is typical for market conditions real estate sales.

Thus, it becomes quite obvious that in order to calculate the salvage value in the current Russian conditions, it is possible to use the following equation:

Slick. = Sryn. x (1 - Kvyn.),

where is slick. - salvage value of real estate;

Sryn. - market value of the object under study;

Kvyn. - correction for forced sale, provided 0< Квын. < 1.

According to the above equation, salvage value is calculated in two steps. At the first stage, the market value of the studied property is determined. At the second stage, the value of the adjustment for the forced sale is calculated and included in the value of the market value, that is, the market value is adjusted for the "forced sale" factor (for non-market conditions of sale).

If the calculation of the market value of real estate does not cause difficulties, then the definition of an adjustment for the forced sale and its mathematical justification raises many questions. In practice, appraisers accept it intuitively in the range from 0.1 to 0.3 (10 - 30% of the market value).

So, in the case of a value of the adjustment coefficient at the level of 10%, the salvage value of a residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rubles. x (1 - 0.1) = 2169642.6 rubles.

If the value of the adjustment coefficient is at the level of 30%, the salvage value of the residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rubles. x (1 - 0.3) = 1687499.8 rubles.

So, in general, we can conclude that the liquidation value of the property will be from 70 to 90% of its market value and will range from 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

Thus, it is clear that the price of the apartment in the four options turned out to be different. To determine which price most accurately reflects the value of an object, it is necessary to know the purpose of the valuation, since the purpose of the valuation determines the choice of determining the value.

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the value of an object acquired for the purpose of making a profit in the form of periodic income with subsequent sale, then one should focus on the figure obtained in the income method (1327118.6 rubles - 1346178 rubles)

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the real market value of the object, while there is enough information on the sales prices of similar objects, then the cost of the apartment should be taken as the figure obtained by comparing market analogues (2410714 rubles).

If the purpose of the appraisal is to determine the value of an apartment that serves as collateral for obtaining a mortgage loan, then the liquidation value is the most appropriate, since the sale of the appraised object in case of default loan agreement should be provided in a fairly short time frame. Thus, as the value of the property, a value in the range of 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles should be taken. up to 216942.6 thousand rubles.

CHAPTER 3. SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE REAL ESTATE APPRAISAL METHODS

residential property appraisal cost

In general, the first chapter is devoted to a greater extent to the theoretical foundations, the basic categories associated with real estate valuation.

The second chapter of the work presents the results of real estate appraisal from the standpoint of three approaches to determining the market value: appraisal in terms of costs (cost approach), appraisal by direct comparison of sales (comparative approach), appraisal in terms of expected or actual income (income approach) .

When comparing the results of the assessment, it was found that all approaches give different results. Let us consider the main directions for improving the presented approaches to real estate valuation.

In modern appraisal practice, the technology of carrying out replacement cost calculations using UPVS collections is often used. The use of these collections began in 1997, when market information on real estate objects was practically absent, and the use of these collections was the only way to determine the “market value”, mainly for the revaluation of fixed assets. In the last decade, there have been great changes in the information support of the real estate market and budgeting. The Gosstroy of the Russian Federation has switched to a new estimate and regulatory framework. Decree of the Gosstroy of Russia No. 16 dated April 08, 2002 “On measures to complete the transition to a new estimated and regulatory base for pricing in construction” canceled from 01/01/2003 the regulatory documents of the Gosstroy of the USSR, drawn up at the price level provided for by the estimated and regulatory bases of 1991. and 1984. Instead of them, state elemental estimated norms (GESN) and federal unit prices (FER) are introduced. Gosstroy of Russia approved and put into effect:

· GESNr-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for repair and construction works";

· GESN-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for general construction works";

GESNm-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for equipment installation"

HPES are designed to determine the composition and the need for resources necessary to perform construction work at facilities, prepare cost estimates (estimates) using the resource method, as well as to pay for work performed and write off materials.

Gosstroy of Russia develops Federal unit prices (FER, FERr and FERm) only for the Moscow region. Further, the prices for the Moscow Region are transferred by Gosstroy to the Regional Centers for pricing in construction to link prices to regional conditions. After binding, the collections of prices are sent back to Gosstroy for their further approval. Currently, the process of developing a new regulatory framework has not yet been completed. Conducting real estate valuation based on the new regulatory framework is a very complex and time-consuming task that requires special knowledge and skills. In order for the new regulatory framework to enter into the practice of valuation, it is necessary to carry out a set of works on the development of software and computing systems adapted to solving applied problems of real estate valuation.

Recently, regional centers for pricing in construction have begun to work actively, firms specializing in the provision of information services have appeared, for example, NPF Center for Information Technologies in Construction.

And only real estate appraisers still use long-outdated collections of the 70s of the last century and at the same time justify the “market value” of objects on their basis. Experienced appraisers have long understood the shortcomings of the use of UPVS collections, primarily related to the list of costs included in unit prices, average indexation, inconsistency in technologies, the ratio of the scope of work, etc.

So, in the collections of UPVS, the following cost items are taken into account:

· direct costs;

overhead costs;

Planned savings (profit);

general site costs for the allocation and development of the construction site;

cost of design and survey work;

costs associated with the production of work in the winter;

The cost of premium wages

the cost of maintaining the directorate of a standing enterprise;

· losses from the liquidation of temporary buildings and structures;

· the cost of transporting workers over a distance of more than 3 km. Without public transport;

· the cost of paying employees bonuses for the mobile nature of work.

Experienced appraisers in their calculations use their own developments based on adjustments to analogues or consolidated estimates.

In the work of P.G. Grabovoi, S.P. Korostelev “Property valuation, Part I. Real estate valuation” on specific example it is shown that the results of calculations of the replacement cost of residential real estate according to the methodology of the UPVS differ significantly, several times, from market indicators.

However, in the majority of reports reviewed by the Expert Council of the Russian Society of Appraisers, the assessment of the market value of real estate is still based on outdated UPVS. Moreover, in order to somehow bring the results of these calculations closer to market indicators, a certain multiplying factor is introduced into them, which is called “entrepreneur's profit”. It is accepted absolutely arbitrarily, since it is not possible to remove this indicator from the market in modern conditions. It should be emphasized here that, in accordance with IVS-2003, “the application of market value requires the conclusion of a valuation solely on the basis of market data”. When applying the RSA, the appraiser determines unequivocally a non-market value, which should be reflected in the report.

In Russia, there is still no reliable information base on enlarged baseline construction costs that are available from Western appraisers (following the example of WESSEXS, LAXTONS, R.S.MEANS).

Currently, the main recognized information base for real estate valuation are the developments of Co-Invest LLC. This firm quarterly publishes the bulletin "Price Indices in Construction", as well as the series "Appraiser's Handbook": "Industrial buildings", "Residential buildings", "Collections of purchasing power parities of currencies in national construction markets", "Handbook of the replacement cost of buildings and structures in current price level, etc.

When using these publications, it must be remembered that most of their calculations are based on the normative base of the planned economy, indexed by certain price coefficients and, therefore, the final results of the assessment may have a significant error for the reasons stated above. When applying certain indices, it is necessary to carefully study the prerequisites for their calculation.

Recently published and announced as the first in the country, expected by appraisers, the Regional Guide to Construction Costs (RCC-2006). It provides cost indicators by type of construction work, aggregated cost indicators (CSI) and "information for assessing the required amount of investment in the express option." In fact, the latter definition refers to the estimated cost of objects-analogues of modern buildings and structures. Part III of the RCC contains "analogue objects with technical and economic indicators of structural elements, analogous objects with technical and economic indicators for the object as a whole and a summary table of technical and economic indicators recommended for determining the cost of residential buildings and social and cultural facilities." Cost indicators are defined in prices as of 01.01.2006 for the "Moscow Region". The directory includes cost indicators for 18 types of modern residential buildings and 27 non-residential real estate. In RCC-2007 this list of objects has been significantly expanded.

The publication of RCC creates the conditions for its application in real estate and business valuation procedures. If in real estate appraisal it is possible to use part II of the handbook "Aggregated value indicators", then in the cost approach of business appraisal it is possible to use part III "Objects-analogues of buildings and structures".

Thus, RCC collections should become the basic basis for real estate valuation. However, there are significant shortcomings of these collections. The main one is that they do not provide the initial data and the main assumptions of the obtained values ​​of the cost of analogues. So, it is not entirely clear what specific composition of the equipment is taken into account in the final indicators, what was included in the builder's other costs, etc. The joint work of estimators, analysts and appraisers in the direction of improving the RCC can lead to the creation of an information base that is so necessary for real estate appraisers.

The main direction in the development of appraisal activity is currently becoming the appraisal of the market value of real estate. This becomes possible due to the fact that our country is accumulating a database of the actual market value of real estate.

In order to simplify the process of appraisal of residential real estate in appraisal agencies, a regression model of the cost of an apartment can be used, which allows you to calculate the cost of a residential property depending on a number of its parameters.

An example of building such a model is given in the magazine "Real Estate" for December 2005. The model was built according to the price lists of several real estate companies that are engaged in the implementation of housing of various consumer characteristics in various districts of the city of Novosibirsk. For the analysis, information was collected on 450 apartments (150 options for each type of apartment - one-, two-, three-room) according to the following parameters:

The cost of the apartment

The area in which the property is located

Ownership type:

public housing,

Housing acquired under a privatization agreement,

Property purchased under a sale and purchase agreement

Material of the house where the apartment is located:

Panel, brick, monolith,

House type:

Elite,

improved layout,

typical,

full size,

- "Khrushchev",

storey of the house,

The floor on which the apartment is located,

The total area of ​​the apartment,

living area of ​​the apartment,

kitchen area,

The presence of a balcony or loggia,

Having a phone.

Let us consider in detail the procedure for building a model using the example of one-room apartments.

At the first stage of building the model, the matrix of correlation coefficients was analyzed in order to identify parameters that strongly depend on each other. The main task was to select such factors, the correlation coefficient for which would not exceed the value of 0.8. Based on the results of the analysis, a matrix of correlation coefficients was built, which takes into account 6 factors, that is, exactly half of those initially collected, since the remaining factors did not satisfy the condition imposed on the correlation coefficient.

Based on the collected data on the selected factors, the following regression model was built:

Ρ = -10.12 + 9.24 Stotal + 35.62 * x1 - 21.17 * x2 + 15.07 * x3 +

65 * x4 + 64.48 * x5 (3.1)

or in general:

Ρ= -a0 + asStot + a1x1 + arr + a3x3 + a4x4 + a5x5 (3.2)

The following notation is used in the presented equation:

Ρ is the price of an apartment with fixed parameters defined below,

Stot - the total area of ​​the apartment,

x1 is a dummy variable characterizing the area in which the apartment is located,

x2 is a dummy variable characterizing the material of the house where the apartment is located;

x3 is a variable that characterizes the number of storeys of the building in which the appraised apartment is located;

x4 is a dummy variable characterizing the floor on which the apartment is located;

x5 is a dummy variable characterizing the presence of a telephone in the apartment.

Statistical indicators for this model confirmed the significance of the results obtained.

Thus, the resulting model very well reflects the dependence of the average cost of apartments on its parameters in the housing market of the city of Novosibirsk (without taking into account extreme options).

The presented models were put into practice in the real estate agencies of the city of Novosibirsk "Zhilfond" and "Amir - Real Estate", which have full-time employees for assessing the cost of apartments for sale, and also acting as collateral in loan agreements. It should be noted that experts highly appreciated the effectiveness of their application.

The second important problem appraisers face is predicting the value of an apartment in the future. This problem becomes especially relevant when assessing the cost of an apartment for mortgage purposes, since the sale of an apartment will take place in the future, and it is important to determine the rate of growth in the cost of an apartment for the period of a loan agreement.

The initial data for building a model of price dynamics in the secondary housing market were taken from the Real Estate magazines by quarters of the corresponding years. For each year, information was collected on 240 apartments - 80 for each type of apartment (one-, two-, three-room apartments). . The main purpose of building the model is to determine the model for changing the prices of real estate in the secondary market.

The structure of the collected data on apartments is shown in fig. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3.

Rice. 2.1. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.2. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.3. The structure of the apartments considered when building the model, by the type of material of the house

Time Analysis economic phenomena distinguishes between different types of evolution.

1. Trend, trend or long-term movement. There is no strict definition of a trend, it is revealed intuitively. A trend corresponds to a slow change in some particular direction that persists over a long period of time.

2. Cycle, short-term component - fast quasi-periodic movement, in which there is an increase phase and a decrease phase.

3. Seasonal component - changes that occur regularly, as opposed to a cycle.

4. Random fluctuations, effects - chaotic movement of a relatively high frequency, which has a more or less constant character.

Some statistical series represent one or another type of evolution in its pure form, but most of them are a combination of all or individual components.

Theoretically, a series of price dynamics is a combination of trend, seasonal component and random fluctuations. At the present stage of development of the real estate market, the seasonal component of the price of an apartment is disrupted, which is due to high rates of price growth and the investment attractiveness of the market in question. That is why special attention was paid to highlighting the trend in the dynamic series under consideration.

According to the series of dynamics of prices for apartments, the following model was built.

Polynomial of the second degree:

yi = a + bt2, (3.3)

where i - apartment type,

t - time period.

It should be noted that, in accordance with the criteria used in statistics, the correlation coefficient should be close to 1 (exceed 0.7), the significance factor F should be less than 0.03 (for the given model parameters).

Thus, the obtained models reflect well the dynamics of prices in the secondary housing market of the city of Novosibirsk.

According to the obtained model, the growth in the cost of one-room apartments should have been 22.0% in 2006, while the actual growth in cost was 24.3%.

According to this model, the growth in the cost of a two-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.7%, while in fact the growth rate was 21.6%.

In accordance with the presented model, the growth in the cost of a three-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.5%, while in fact the growth rate was 31.0%.

Substituting real data on the cost per square meter of apartments in the city of Novosibirsk in each quarter of 2006, it can be noted that this value falls within the boundaries of the confidence intervals built according to the model.

According to experts, the resulting model adequately describes the current situation in the real estate market at the moment. The forecast for growth in the cost of housing by the end of 2006 for certain types of apartments coincides with real data, since the growth of the market predicted by experts is 20-30%.

The appraiser is constantly faced with the problem of predicting the cost of apartments, this problem is especially acute when assessing for lending purposes. The correctness of the decision depends on the experience, qualifications of the specialist, as well as on the quality of the collected data on the market of the object being evaluated. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn.

There are three approaches to the valuation of real estate objects.

The income approach consists in determining the value of the property being valued based on the amount of income that it can generate in the future, and is most often used to evaluate commercial real estate.

The cost approach determines the cost based on the construction costs of a similar object (the cost of materials, transportation costs, etc.), and is based on the fact that the value of the object being assessed cannot be higher.

The method of comparing sales (comparative approach) consists in finding the closest analogues to the valued object and making adjustments to their value, taking into account the differences between them and the valued object. This approach is the main one in the evaluation of residential real estate, as there is a sufficient number of proposals for the sale of residential premises on the market for a correct assessment.

The purpose of the assessment presented in the practical part of the work was to determine the market value of an apartment consisting of two living rooms, located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk

To evaluate a residential real estate object - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - the methods of income, cost and comparative approaches were used, according to which the following results were obtained.

According to the method of comparing market analogues, the cost of the object is 2410714 rubles.

As part of the income approach:

According to the method of direct capitalization, the cost of the apartment will be 1,327,118.6 rubles;

According to the method of discounting future income - 1346178 rubles.

According to the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34248.9 rubles.

In accordance with the methodology for determining the liquidation value of an object, the cost of a two-room apartment in the Zaeltsovsky district will range from 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

The improvement of the cost approach to the valuation of residential real estate consists in the development of documents, collections, reflecting the real costs of the construction of similar objects, since the normative collections used by appraisers in the course of their work were published in the 70s. of the last century and have long been outdated, and the correction factors used in these approaches are not justified in any way.

The main direction of improving market approaches to valuation is the use of statistical models in the process of estimating the value of real estate objects.

The paper presents examples of a model for determining the value of a property based on a number of its qualitative characteristics, as well as a statistical model for predicting the value of a property after a certain period of time. It should be noted that this problem is especially relevant in the case of real estate appraisal for lending purposes, since in this case the real estate object is sold some time after the appraisal. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

LIST OF USED LITERATURE AND SOURCES

1. Civil Code Russian Federation. Parts one, two and three. Official text. - M .: IKF Omega - L, 2005.

2. On valuation activities in the Russian Federation. Federal Law of 08/06/98 No. 135 - FZ.

3. Approval of assessment standards. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 519 of 07/06/2001.

4. Boldyrev B.C. Introduction to the theory of real estate valuation. - M.: Center for management, evaluation, 2004.

5. Burdenkova E. About some aspects of the activity of real estate firms. // Questions of statistics. - 2004. - No. 10. - P.32 - 37.

6. Balabanov I.T. Real estate transactions in Russia. Moscow. 2003

7. Henry S. Harrison. Property valuation. - M.: RIO, 2004.

8. Goremykin V.A. Real estate economics. - M.: Filin, 2005.

9. Gribovsky S.V. Valuation of profitable real estate. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2004.

10. Grigoriev V.V. Valuation of real estate objects, theoretical and practical aspects. - M.: INFRA - M, 2004.

11. Grishaev S.P. Legal regulation of real estate. // State and law. - No. 3. – 2005.

12. Gryaznova A.G., Fedotova M.A. Business valuation. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2004.

13. Dubovitsky S.K. Real estate and evolution. - Krasnoyarsk: Soyuz, 2004.

14. Weekly specialized magazine: Real Estate - Novosibirsk No. 15 2007

15. Ermolaeva E., Frolov A. Calm before growth. Trends in the development of the regional real estate market. // Continent Siberia. - 2005. - No. 15. - S. 10.

16. Who's who in the real estate market: a Handbook. – M.: Triada LTD, 2002.

17. Kupchina L.A. Property valuation. // Accounting. - 2005. - No. 2. - P.72 - 75.

18. Lavrukhin O. The real estate market: the stage of formation is over, but what's next? // Vedomosti. - No. 21. - 2005.

19. Loginov MP. On the issue of real estate appraisal in Russia. // ECO. - 2004. - No. 9. - S. 103 -108.

20. Nagaev R.T. Real estate: an encyclopedic dictionary. M.: Ideal - Press, 2003.

21. Orlov S.V., Tsypkin Yu.A. Market valuation of city property. – M.: Unity, 2003.

22.Provovich Yu.A. Land valuation in Moscow. - M.: Economics, 2003.

23. Valuation market in 2004. Analytical review // Expert. - 2005. - No. 5. - S. 64 - 72.

24. Sivets S.A., Bashirova L.A. How to appraise property (a guide for valuation customers). - M .: Through the looking glass, 2002.

25. Sivets S.A., Levykina I.A. Econometric modeling in real estate valuation. - M .: Through the looking glass, 2002.

26. Sivets S.A. Statistical methods in real estate and business valuation. - M .: Through the looking glass, 2003.

27. Statistical information of real estate agencies in the city of Novosibirsk. // Real estate. - No. 48 - 51. - 2005.

28. Strategy for the development of the construction industry until 2010. // http://www.gosstroy.ru

29. Tarasevich E.I. Real estate appraisal - St. Petersburg: St. Petersburg State Technical University, 2003.

30. Trends in the development of the Novosibirsk real estate market. Analytical review // http://www.nsk.realty.ru

31. Fedotova M.A., Utkin E.A. Valuation of real estate and business. -M.: EKMOS, 2004.

32. Friedman D. Analysis and evaluation of income-generating real estate. - M.: Delo, 2005.

33. Educational and practical guide / Ed. Doctor of Economics, prof. V. Z. Chernika - M .: RDL Publishing House, 2002. - 272 p.

34. Khachatryan S.R. An econometric model for forecasting housing sales prices in the primary (secondary) market. // Audit and the financial analysis. - No. 4. - 2004. - S. 130 - 134.

35. Shcherbakova N.A., Real Estate Economics, Novosibirsk 2002.;

Annex 1

APARTMENT LAYOUT

LOCATION IN THE ENTRANCE

Appendix 2

Information on the sale of apartments similar to the property under appraisal in January 2006

No. p / p	Street	House type	Floor / number of floors	Total / living area	Kitchen	Balcony / loggia	Telephone	Isolated / adjoining rooms	Cost, thousand rubles	The cost of 1 sq. m., thousand rubles.
1	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	39/26	5,5	B	+	cm	2450	62,8
2	Dachnaya	Π	2/5	40/28	6	B	+	from	2200	55
3	Dm. Donskoy	Π	3/5	42/28	6,5	B	+	cm	2100	50
4	Dachnaya	Π	4/5	40/26	6	B	+	cm	2150	53,8
5	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	41/28	5,5	B	+	from	2650	64,6
6	Zhukovsky	P	4/5	44/28	6	B	+	cm	2350	53,4
7	spring	P	3/5	43/29	6,5	B	+	cm	2400	55,9
8	Dachnaya	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	2300	54,8
9	Dachnaya	P	2/5	40/26	5,5	B	+	from	2150	53,8
10	Dm. Donskoy	P	3/5	44/29	6	B	+	cm	2100	47,7
11	Estimated object	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	-	-

Determination of the value of real estate objects, taking into account corrective coefficients

№	ksozh	Kbl	Kat	keyes	cliff	Kvys	Kmus	Kk	The cost of 1 sq. m		Equiv. standing.
1	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	62,8		55,9
2	0,95	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55		55,7
3	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	50		54,6
4	1,0	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,8		55
5	1,0	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	64,6		53,6
6	0,95	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,4		53,2
7	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55,9		53,7
8	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	54,8		53,3
9	1,00	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	53,8		54,1
10	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	47,7		50,5
Arithmetic mean									55,9	54

residential property appraisal cost

In general, the first chapter is devoted to a greater extent to the theoretical foundations, the basic categories associated with real estate valuation.

The second chapter of the work presents the results of real estate appraisal from the standpoint of three approaches to determining the market value: appraisal in terms of costs (cost approach), appraisal by direct comparison of sales (comparative approach), appraisal in terms of expected or actual income (income approach) .

When comparing the results of the assessment, it was found that all approaches give different results. Let us consider the main directions for improving the presented approaches to real estate valuation.

In modern appraisal practice, the technology of carrying out replacement cost calculations using UPVS collections is often used. The use of these collections began in 1997, when market information on real estate objects was practically absent, and the use of these collections was the only way to determine the “market value”, mainly for the revaluation of fixed assets. In the last decade, there have been great changes in the information support of the real estate market and budgeting. The Gosstroy of the Russian Federation has switched to a new estimate and regulatory framework. Decree of the Gosstroy of Russia No. 16 dated April 08, 2002 “On measures to complete the transition to a new estimated and regulatory base for pricing in construction” canceled from 01/01/2003 the regulatory documents of the Gosstroy of the USSR, drawn up at the price level provided for by the estimated and regulatory bases of 1991. and 1984. Instead of them, state elemental estimated norms (GESN) and federal unit prices (FER) are introduced. Gosstroy of Russia approved and put into effect:

· GESNr-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for repair and construction works";

· GESN-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for general construction works";

GESNm-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for equipment installation"

HPES are designed to determine the composition and the need for resources necessary to perform construction work at facilities, prepare cost estimates (estimates) using the resource method, as well as to pay for work performed and write off materials.

Gosstroy of Russia develops Federal unit prices (FER, FERr and FERm) only for the Moscow region. Further, the prices for the Moscow Region are transferred by Gosstroy to the Regional Centers for pricing in construction to link prices to regional conditions. After binding, the collections of prices are sent back to Gosstroy for their further approval. Currently, the process of developing a new regulatory framework has not yet been completed. Conducting real estate valuation based on the new regulatory framework is a very complex and time-consuming task that requires special knowledge and skills. In order for the new regulatory framework to enter into the practice of valuation, it is necessary to carry out a set of works on the development of software and computing systems adapted to solving applied problems of real estate valuation.

Recently, regional centers for pricing in construction have begun to work actively, firms specializing in the provision of information services have appeared, for example, NPF Center for Information Technologies in Construction.

And only real estate appraisers still use long-outdated collections of the 70s of the last century and at the same time justify the “market value” of objects on their basis. Experienced appraisers have long understood the shortcomings of the use of UPVS collections, primarily related to the list of costs included in unit prices, average indexation, inconsistency in technologies, the ratio of the scope of work, etc.

So, in the collections of UPVS, the following cost items are taken into account:

· direct costs;

overhead costs;

Planned savings (profit);

general site costs for the allocation and development of the construction site;

cost of design and survey work;

costs associated with the production of work in the winter;

The cost of premium wages

the cost of maintaining the directorate of a standing enterprise;

· losses from the liquidation of temporary buildings and structures;

· the cost of transporting workers over a distance of more than 3 km. in the absence of public transport;

· the cost of paying employees bonuses for the mobile nature of work.

Experienced appraisers in their calculations use their own developments based on adjustments to analogues or consolidated estimates.

In the work of P.G. Grabovoi, S.P. Korostelev “Property appraisal, Part I. Real estate appraisal”, it is shown on a specific example that the results of calculating the replacement cost of residential real estate using the methodology of the UPVS significantly, several times, differ from market indicators.

However, in the majority of reports reviewed by the Expert Council of the Russian Society of Appraisers, the assessment of the market value of real estate is still based on outdated UPVS. Moreover, in order to somehow bring the results of these calculations closer to market indicators, a certain multiplying factor is introduced into them, which is called “entrepreneur's profit”. It is accepted absolutely arbitrarily, since it is not possible to remove this indicator from the market in modern conditions. It should be emphasized here that, in accordance with IVS-2003, “the application of market value requires the conclusion of a valuation solely on the basis of market data”. When applying the RSA, the appraiser determines unequivocally a non-market value, which should be reflected in the report.

In Russia, there is still no reliable information base on the aggregated basic indicators of the cost of construction, which are available from Western appraisers (following the example of WESSEXS, LAXTONS, R.S.MEANS).

Currently, the main recognized information base for real estate valuation are the developments of Co-Invest LLC. This firm quarterly publishes the bulletin "Price Indices in Construction", as well as the series "Appraiser's Handbook": "Industrial buildings", "Residential buildings", "Collections of purchasing power parities of currencies in national construction markets", "Handbook of the replacement cost of buildings and structures in current price level, etc.

When using these publications, it must be remembered that most of their calculations are based on the normative base of the planned economy, indexed by certain price coefficients and, therefore, the final results of the assessment may have a significant error for the reasons stated above. When applying certain indices, it is necessary to carefully study the prerequisites for their calculation.

Recently published and announced as the first in the country, expected by appraisers, the Regional Guide to Construction Costs (RCC-2006). It provides cost indicators by type of construction work, aggregated cost indicators (UCS) and "information for assessing the required amount of investment in the express option." In fact, the latter definition refers to the estimated cost of objects-analogues of modern buildings and structures. Part III of the RCC contains "analogue objects with technical and economic indicators of structural elements, analogous objects with technical and economic indicators for the object as a whole and a summary table of technical and economic indicators recommended for determining the cost of residential buildings and social and cultural facilities." Cost indicators are defined in prices as of 01.01.2006 for the "Moscow Region". The directory includes cost indicators for 18 types of modern residential buildings and 27 non-residential real estate. In RCC-2007 this list of objects has been significantly expanded.

The publication of RCC creates the conditions for its application in real estate and business valuation procedures. If in real estate appraisal it is possible to use part II of the handbook "Aggregated value indicators", then in the cost approach of business appraisal it is possible to use part III "Objects-analogues of buildings and structures".

Thus, RCC collections should become the basic basis for real estate valuation. However, there are significant shortcomings of these collections. The main one is that they do not provide the initial data and the main assumptions of the obtained values ​​of the cost of analogues. So, it is not entirely clear what specific composition of the equipment is taken into account in the final indicators, what was included in the builder's other costs, etc. The joint work of estimators, analysts and appraisers in the direction of improving the RCC can lead to the creation of an information base that is so necessary for real estate appraisers.

The main direction in the development of appraisal activity is currently becoming the appraisal of the market value of real estate. This becomes possible due to the fact that our country is accumulating a database of the actual market value of real estate.

In order to simplify the process of appraisal of residential real estate in appraisal agencies, a regression model of the cost of an apartment can be used, which allows you to calculate the cost of a residential property depending on a number of its parameters.

An example of building such a model is given in the magazine "Real Estate" for December 2005. The model was built according to the price lists of several real estate companies that are engaged in the implementation of housing of various consumer characteristics in various districts of the city of Novosibirsk. For the analysis, information was collected on 450 apartments (150 options for each type of apartment - one-, two-, three-room) according to the following parameters:

apartment price,

the area in which the residence is located,

property type:

public housing,

Housing acquired under a privatization agreement,

Property purchased under a sale and purchase agreement

* material of the building in which the apartment is located:

Panel, brick, monolith,

* house type:

Elite,

improved layout,

typical,

full size,

- "Khrushchev",

storey of the house,

the floor on which the apartment is located,

total area of ​​the apartment,

apartment living area,

kitchen area,

the presence of a balcony or loggia,

having a phone.

Let us consider in detail the procedure for building a model using the example of one-room apartments.

At the first stage of building the model, the matrix of correlation coefficients was analyzed in order to identify parameters that strongly depend on each other. The main task was to select such factors, the correlation coefficient for which would not exceed the value of 0.8. Based on the results of the analysis, a matrix of correlation coefficients was built, which takes into account 6 factors, that is, exactly half of those initially collected, since the remaining factors did not satisfy the condition imposed on the correlation coefficient.

Based on the collected data on the selected factors, the following regression model was built:

C \u003d -10.12 + 9.24 Stotal + 35.62 * x1 - 21.17 * x2 + 15.07 * x3 +

65 * x4 + 64.48 * x5 (3.1)

or in general:

C \u003d -a0 + asStot + a1x1 + arr + a3x3 + a4x4 + a5x5 (3.2)

The following notation is used in the presented equation:

C - the price of an apartment with fixed parameters defined below,

Stot - the total area of ​​the apartment,

x1 is a dummy variable characterizing the area in which the apartment is located,

x2 is a dummy variable characterizing the material of the house where the apartment is located;

x3 is a variable that characterizes the number of storeys of the building in which the appraised apartment is located;

x4 is a dummy variable characterizing the floor on which the apartment is located;

x5 is a dummy variable characterizing the presence of a telephone in the apartment.

Statistical indicators for this model confirmed the significance of the results obtained.

Thus, the resulting model very well reflects the dependence of the average cost of apartments on its parameters in the housing market of the city of Novosibirsk (without taking into account extreme options).

The presented models were put into practice in the real estate agencies of the city of Novosibirsk "Zhilfond" and "Amir - Real Estate", which have full-time employees for assessing the cost of apartments for sale, as well as acting as collateral in loan agreements. It should be noted that experts highly appreciated the effectiveness of their application.

The second important problem appraisers face is predicting the value of an apartment in the future. This problem becomes especially relevant when assessing the cost of an apartment for mortgage purposes, since the sale of an apartment will take place in the future, and it is important to determine the rate of growth in the cost of an apartment for the period of a loan agreement.

The initial data for building a model of price dynamics in the secondary housing market were taken from the Real Estate magazines by quarters of the corresponding years. For each year, information was collected on 240 apartments - 80 for each type of apartment (one-, two-, three-room apartments). . The main purpose of building the model is to determine the model for changing the prices of real estate in the secondary market.

The structure of the collected data on apartments is shown in fig. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3.

Rice. 2.1. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.2. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.3. The structure of the apartments considered when building the model, by the type of material of the house

The temporal analysis of economic phenomena distinguishes between different types of evolution.

1. Trend, trend or long-term movement. There is no strict definition of a trend, it is revealed intuitively. A trend corresponds to a slow change in some particular direction that persists over a long period of time.

2. Cycle, short-term component - fast quasi-periodic movement, in which there is an increase phase and a decrease phase.

3. Seasonal component - changes that occur regularly, as opposed to a cycle.

4. Random fluctuations, effects - chaotic movement of a relatively high frequency, which is more or less constant.

Some statistical series represent one or another type of evolution in its pure form, but most of them are a combination of all or individual components.

Theoretically, a series of price dynamics is a combination of trend, seasonal component and random fluctuations. At the present stage of development of the real estate market, the seasonal component of the price of an apartment is disrupted, which is due to high rates of price growth and the investment attractiveness of the market in question. That is why special attention was paid to highlighting the trend in the dynamic series under consideration.

According to the series of dynamics of prices for apartments, the following model was built.

Polynomial of the second degree:

yi = a + bt2, (3.3)

where i - apartment type,

t - time period.

It should be noted that, in accordance with the criteria used in statistics, the correlation coefficient should be close to 1 (exceed 0.7), the significance factor F should be less than 0.03 (for the given model parameters).

Thus, the obtained models reflect well the dynamics of prices in the secondary housing market of the city of Novosibirsk.

According to the obtained model, the growth in the cost of one-room apartments should have been 22.0% in 2006, while the actual growth in cost was 24.3%.

According to this model, the growth in the cost of a two-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.7%, while in fact the growth rate was 21.6%.

In accordance with the presented model, the growth in the cost of a three-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.5%, while in fact the growth rate was 31.0%.

Substituting real data on the cost per square meter of apartments in the city of Novosibirsk in each quarter of 2006, it can be noted that this value falls within the boundaries of the confidence intervals built according to the model.

According to experts, the resulting model adequately describes the current situation in the real estate market at the moment. The forecast for growth in the cost of housing by the end of 2006 for certain types of apartments coincides with real data, since the growth of the market predicted by experts is 20-30%.

The appraiser is constantly faced with the problem of predicting the cost of apartments, this problem is especially acute when assessing for lending purposes. The correctness of the decision depends on the experience, qualifications of the specialist, as well as on the quality of the collected data on the market of the object being evaluated. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

The real estate market, unlike the stock market, is more than far from perfect in many respects, which determines the features of its study. On the one hand, analysts are faced with difficulties, and sometimes the impossibility of correct and unambiguous formalization of economic relationships in the real estate market. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is no prospect of transferring analysis technologies used in other markets to the real estate market in their pure form, since these technologies are adapted for use in a different market environment. In view of the foregoing, high-quality analytical work in the real estate market seems to be a highly complex subject that requires the analyst, in addition to deep theoretical knowledge of real estate economics, constant practice and creative search in research that forms professional intuition.

Studying almost a century of history of the functioning of real estate markets in the developed countries of the world, one can come to the conclusion that insufficient attention paid to the quality of analytical work is one of the main causes of most major crises in the real estate markets. A typical example is the crisis in the US real estate market in the late 80s and early 90s. According to experts, excessive and indiscriminate investment in new construction has led to a glut of the market and, accordingly, lack of market demand for a large number of projects for which loans were issued. This situation was based on unrealistic market expectations stemming from the wrong structure of incentives in the analysis, weak analysis methodology and incomplete data characterizing the current conditions. The structure of incentives that guided developers, appraisers and credit organizations was deformed by the interest of some to receive loans, others to justify obtaining a loan, and still others to allocate their funds. At the same time, all parties solved their problems at the expense of unjustifiably optimistic expectations.

The use of weak analysis methodology, expressed in inadequate assumptions and procedures, in interaction with insufficiently high-quality data from local markets, as a rule, resulted in unsound market research and, accordingly, investment decisions based on them. As a result of the crisis, credit institutions have developed a stable syndrome of distrust in general to any projects and market research in particular. And this, in turn, led to the understanding that real estate market analysts in their work should be guided by some general principles that are necessary (but not sufficient) to obtain accurate conclusions and results. On the other hand, there is an urgent need for understandable and easily identifiable criteria that determine the compliance of market research with the category of validity.

Considering the prospects for the development of the real estate market in Russia, we can assume that the absence of potential crises is an overly optimistic scenario. However, the consequences of such crises may be less significant if already today, at the stage of active market development, some general principles and principles are formulated and implemented in everyday practice.

requirements for analytical studies, on the basis of which investment decisions will be made.

Not only the threat of crises, but also current daily problems - increasing competition, reduced opportunities for short-term super-profits, the start of long-term and capital-intensive commercial real estate development projects, the entry of foreign investors into the market with high requirements for justifying decisions, etc. - objectively testify to the fact that the importance of qualitative analysis in the real estate markets of Russia will become increasingly important in the near future.

2.2 Research of the real estate market for the purpose of substantiating investment decisions.

The ultimate goal of any study of the type under consideration is to measure the ratio of supply and demand for a specific type of product in the real estate market at a specific (usually future) point in time.

The special characteristics of real estate as a commodity, along with the special place of real estate in a market economy, form a fairly wide range of socio-economic information necessary for positioning this product on the market. Current and retrospective macroeconomic characteristics of the national and regional economy, socio-demographic indicators of the regional and local markets, parameters of the regional and local real estate markets - these are just the general areas in which it is necessary to conduct research.

Principle 1. For analysis, only that information should be selected that can really determine the future productivity of the investment object.

When following this principle, the main difficulty for the analyst is the lack of standard rules or unambiguous recommendations on which to form the initial information. It is here that the analyst must show all his knowledge, professional intuition, creativity and practical experience. Moreover, it is here that the basis for the consistency of the study as a whole is laid.

principle 2. All current and prospective data on which the study is based should be used in quantifying the performance of the real estate investment project under consideration.

However, even carefully selected information that is directly related to the subject of assessment is, figuratively speaking, a “bunch of bricks” from which the analyst must lay down a solid foundation for analytical research in accordance with all the rules of building art. And here you can not do without a strong solution that connects the individual elements into a single monolith.

Principle 3. All individual blocks of information selected to justify an investment decision should be interconnected by a clear logical scheme, ending with a forecast of future market conditions and the corresponding productivity of the project under consideration. The description of the logic circuit must be presented explicitly.

A positive perception by the customer of a report with the results of a market research, in which there is no logical scheme, can only be if:

a) the analyst takes advantage of the client's ignorance, or

b) the customer is initially favorable to the results.

On the other hand, the construction of a convincing and obvious logical scheme is a demonstration of the highest professional skill of the analyst.

Continuing the discussion about the need to build a logical scheme of research, let's consider another principle that specifies the content market analysis.

Principle 4. The content of market analysis should be reduced to a discussion of the factors that make up the main ratios for determining the performance of a commercial real estate object.

In accordance with this principle, the analyst in the course of the study must formulate the main relationships that determine the performance of the commercial facility, and then identify the hierarchy of parameters-arguments, the functions of which are the factors included in the main expression for performance.

Let us illustrate a practical approach to the implementation of this principle using the following simplified example.

Let the criterion for the performance of the project under consideration be the net operating income (NOI) in a specific period of the future. Then, by definition, the main expression for determining performance will have the following form:

NOI=PGI-V&L+M-FE-VE, Where

PGI- potential gross income,
V&L- losses from underloading and non-payments.
M I- Other income.
F.E.- Fixed operating expenses
VE- variable operating expenses.

Consider the procedure for identifying the parameters that determine the expected values ​​of the main factors.

Potential Gross Revenue is determined by the rental rate, which in turn is a function of the current rental rate, as well as trends in the ratio market supply and demand over time.

property is a function of the cumulative market capacity, demand parameters, market absorption coefficient and the growth of the real estate absorption area. For projects, the projected load determines two indicators - the level of load and the time schedule for absorption by the market to this level.

Growth of real estate takeover area determined either by growth in the number of jobs (employment rate) or population growth. In turn, an increase in the absorption area leads to the need for new real estate.

It should be noted that the growth of employment and population growth in one case can be directly related, for example, when new jobs are opened and the influx of new able-bodied people. In another case, population growth can grow without an increase in employment, for example, due to an increase in incoming pensioners or an increase in the birth rate. Qualitative analysis involves the use of several sources of information that provide historical trends and range growth projections, followed by data comparison. Segmentation of range growth is also mandatory, eg by age group, sex, family size, etc. The absence of these positions in the study should be attributed to the inconsistent choice of data for use in the analysis.

Demand parameters determined by such specific indicators as the area (office or production) per workplace, spending on purchases per capita, the number of apartments or houses per capita, etc. With the help of demand parameters, the amount of required real estate is calculated, which corresponds to the growth in the area of ​​real estate consumption. For example, by applying average spending per purchase to population growth, retail sales are predicted to increase, and thus the need for additional retail space. When analyzing the housing market, population growth segmented by age, income, size or family composition is converted into segmented demand. A sound analysis of demand parameters involves the study of historical trends, the current state and forecasting their likely value in the future. Moreover, a consistent analysis measures the change in demand not only due to new range gains, but also due to changes in the existing population and employment structure. For example, during economic upswings, growing companies require large areas, and changes in the demographic situation towards an increase in people of retirement age will require an appropriate type of housing.