Principles for evaluating the economic efficiency of investment projects. Analysis of investment projects

IN Guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects(hereinafter - MP) provides the main (IP). The recommendations require cash flow modeling that includes all project-related cash receipts and disbursements over the project cycle, taking into account the possibility of using different currencies.

Should be taken into account cash flows conditioned by the project throughout its life cycle(settlement period), from pre-investment studies to its termination. Accounting is a prerequisite time factor. This involves assessing the change over time in the parameters of the project and its economic environment. Consideration should be given to the disparity in the costs and/or benefits at different times.

The influence of inflation, uncertainties and risks accompanying the implementation of the project can in no way be ignored when developing investment projects. For the project, only actual future cash receipts and payments matter. It is obligatory to compare the scenarios of the project with its actual implementation, as well as the motives for refusing to implement it.

The most significant consequences of the project in related areas, including social and environmental ones, should be taken into account.

One of the most important — taking into account the divergence of interests of different participants and different estimates of the cost of capital associated with individual values discount rates. It is also envisaged multi-stage assessment of the effectiveness of the investment project.

Consider the most significant principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects both from the point of view of reflecting the main provisions of the theory of efficiency investment projects, and from the point of view of the specifics of IP implementation at the present stage of reforming the Russian economy.

Let's start with cash flow modeling. Its essence lies in the reliable forecasting by the developers of the business plan investment projects income and disbursements over the project cycle, including pre-investment, investment and operational phases, whose characteristics are as follows.

Phases of investment projects

Firstly, pre-investment phase should include a study of investment opportunities to turn the project idea into a broadly formulated investment proposal. It is mandatory to prepare a feasibility study in order to provide the most complete information for making an investment decision, as well as an expert opinion on the feasibility of the project.

Secondly, on investment phase it is important to establish precisely the legal, financial and organizational basis for the implementation of the project. It is important to carry out the necessary design and survey work, complete all negotiations and conclude contracts. Land and equipment must be purchased, construction and installation work carried out, staff recruited and trained, and the facility commissioned and put into operation.

Third, operational phase is given special importance. It reveals the actual efficiency of the project implementation in inextricable relationship with the quality of work at the pre-investment and investment stages.

The classification of cash flows generated by the project is presented in Table 1.

Table 1

Classification of cash flows of investment projects

Kind of activity	Cash receipts	Cash payments
Production (operational) activities	proceeds from the sale of products; other supply	purchase of raw materials and supplies; labor costs; net working capital gains*; payment of insurance premiums and taxes
Investment activities	income from investments in securities; proceeds from the sale of assets; receipts from affiliates	acquisition of fixed capital; expenses for the formation of working capital at the investment stage of the project
Financial activities	proceeds from the sale of securities; received loans	interest payments on loans and bonds; dividend payments

*The need for working capital is calculated as the difference between current assets and current liabilities.

One of the most importantprinciples for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects consists of the need to take into account the time factorwhen comparing different-time cash receipts and payments bydiscounting, at which their reduction to the beginning of the project cycle is carried out by multiplying by the appropriate discount factor.

Economic content of the discount rate in that it expresses the minimum allowable income for the investor per unit of advanced capital. The investor, in fact, proceeds from the assumption that he will always find alternatives to the project for investing temporarily free cash with a return equal to the discount rate.

Important the principle of evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects is to take into account only the upcoming in the course of the project's receipts and payments. Previously created assets used in the project are not estimated by the cost of their creation, but opportunity cost(opportunity cost), reflecting the maximum value of lost profits associated with their best possible alternative use.

If, For example, in an existing building, a workshop for the production of printed products is organized, then when planning cash receipts and payments, it is not the previously incurred costs for the construction of the building, taking into account its depreciation, but the amount of lost profits associated with not receiving income from the possible leasing of the building for rent.

Past costs already incurred that do not provide opportunities for obtaining alternative(i.e. obtained outside of this project) income in the future (sunk costs, sunk cost), are not taken into account in cash flows and do not affect the value of performance indicators.

So, if the state financed exploration work at the expense of budgetary funds, which showed the presence of a mineral deposit, then evaluating the effectiveness of an investment project for the development of this field, these costs should not be recognized as income and payments. This, however, does not mean that the budgetary expenses for the exploration of the deposit were a kind of "gift" to the future investor.

Their payback is predetermined by taking into account the costs of exploration work when determining the state's share in the authorized capital of a joint-stock company created to develop a deposit (with subsequent receipt of dividends from the use of state property).

One of principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects , often underestimated in practice, is the need to take into account the scenarios “with a project” and “without a project”. The differences of this approach from the traditional, but incorrect comparison of the “with the project” and “before the project” scenarios are illustrated in Figure 1.

Rice. 1. Illustration efficiency of investment projects

The meaningful interpretation of this scheme is that investment project effect is the sum of the increase in the balance of real money flow in the "with the project" scenario compared to the "before the project" scenario and the prevented damage that occurs, for example, in the form of an increase in the cost of repair work and failure of equipment due to physical wear and tear in the event of delaying its updates.

Given principles for substantiating the effectiveness of investment projects are directly reflected in the methodology for determining the key estimated indicators of the financial feasibility of the project and the effectiveness of its implementation. This issue is discussed below.

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(IP) is associated with activities (organizational, technical, etc.) aimed at achieving certain goals (economic, social, environmental, etc.) and requiring the use of capital resources for their implementation. The most important appraisal categories are project-related costs and benefits of all kinds, the definition and comparison of which is the core of investment project appraisal procedures.

First, a preliminary survey of the project is carried out, during which the purpose of the project and its compliance with the current and projected activities of the enterprise are determined. The preliminary survey also determines the risks associated with the project, whether the enterprise has the necessary experience to realize the opportunities created by the project. At the same stage, the criteria that will be used to evaluate the investment project are determined.

In the process of analysis and evaluation, it is necessary to solve the following main tasks:

1. Assessment of the feasibility of the project, that is, the possibility of its implementation, taking into account all the existing restrictions of a technical, financial, economic and other nature.
2. Evaluation of the absolute effectiveness of the project, that is, checking the fulfillment of the condition: the significance of the results achieved is higher than the significance of the required costs (expenditure of resources).
3. Evaluation of the comparative effectiveness of projects (optimization), that is, a comparison of alternative projects (options) in order to select more appropriate ones, to determine the advantages of some projects (options) over others. Within the framework of this task, the ranking of projects or their sets can be carried out, which is used in optimizing the adoption of investment decisions, variations of exogenous parameters (for example, the size of investment opportunities).

In the system of principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, three structural groups can be distinguished:

Methodological principles, that is, the most general, related to the conceptual side of the matter and little dependent on the specifics of the project under consideration;
methodological principles, that is, those that are directly related to the project, its specifics, economic and financial attractiveness of the project;
operational principles, that is, those that facilitate the process of evaluating the effectiveness of the project from an information-computing point of view.

Methodological principles

1. The effectiveness of the project (means the positive effect of its implementation, i.e. the excess of the assessment of the components of the results over the assessment of the total costs required for the implementation of the project).

2. Adequacy and objectivity: when evaluating the results and costs, it is necessary to ensure the correct reflection of the structure and characteristics of the object in relation to which the project is being considered, taking into account the degree of unreliability and uncertainty objectively inherent in the future.

3. Correctness: the assessment methods used must satisfy certain general formal requirements, which include:

Monotonicity, i.e. with an increase in results and a decrease in costs, the assessment of the effectiveness of the project, all other things being equal, should increase;
- antisymmetry, i.e. when comparing two projects, the quantitative expression of the magnitude of the advantages of one of them must coincide with the expression of the magnitude of the disadvantages of the other;
- transitivity, i.e. if the first project is better than the second, and the second is better than the third, then the first must be better than the third.

4. Consistency: taking into account the fact that the project "fits" into a complex social and therefore, during its implementation, internal, external, as well as synergistic (determined by the integrity of the system and the interaction of its subsystems) effects can take place.

5. Complexity: when evaluating the effectiveness of projects, it is necessary to take into account the diverse consequences of their implementation - not only in the economic, but also in the social, environmental and other non-economic spheres, and to determine the appropriate types and magnitudes of results and costs.

6. Limited resources: when evaluating the effectiveness of projects, it is necessary to proceed from the condition that all types of non-reproducible and reproducible resources are limited, i.e. the prices of resources used to calculate the value of costs should include the lost profit associated with the possible alternative use of resources. Therefore, a zero estimate of the effect obtained during the implementation of the project does not indicate its unprofitability, but means that the resources are used no worse (but not better) than they could be used in an alternative direction.

7. Unlimited needs: the limited resources available can always potentially find an effective direction, because the total need for resources is unlimited.

Methodological principles

1. Specificity of the project: it is necessary to take into account the peculiarity of the current economic mechanism, its influence on the evaluation of the project by various participants in order to choose a "compromise" solution based on the coordination of their interests.
2. The presence of various project participants predetermines the discrepancy between their interests, which implies the need to assess the effectiveness of the project from the standpoint of each participant.
3. Dynamism of processes: when evaluating the effectiveness of a project, it must be taken into account that both the structure and the characteristics of the objects included in it do not remain constant; inflation has a big impact.
4. The disparity of non-synchronous costs and results involves bringing their values to a comparable form using the method.
5. Consistency: it is necessary to take into account the scale of projects, which, in accordance with this feature, are "small", "large-scale" and "global"; "good" and "weakly structured".
6. Limited controllability, incl. past, already incurred and sunk costs.
7. Incompleteness of information, which occurs both in the form of risk and uncertainty, which requires the use of special assessment methods.
8. Capital structure: capital is usually divided into equity (equity) and borrowed, they have different degrees of risk (borrowed is less risky), which determines the choice of the discount rate.

Operational principles:

1. Simulation, i.e. drawing up (simulation or optimization) economic and mathematical model for evaluating efficiency. In the simplest case, these are direct counting models.
2. Computer support - the formation of a database, the use of software systems and the implementation of multivariate calculations.
3. Interactive mode - a dialogue to clarify the influence of various factors.
4. Simplification, i.e. choice of the most simple evaluation method from the information-computational point of view.

The main indicators used to compare various investment projects (project options) and choose the best of them are indicators of the expected integral effect (economic at the level of the national economy, commercial at the level of a separate organization). The same indicators are used to justify the rational sizes and forms of reservation and

Financial analysis Bocharov Vladimir Vladimirovich

8.2. Principles for evaluating investment projects

The most important stage in the process of making investment decisions is the evaluation of the effectiveness of real investments (capital investments). The timing of the return on invested capital and the prospects for the development of the enterprise depend on the correctness and objectivity of such an assessment.

Let us consider the most important principles and methodological approaches used in international practice to assess the effectiveness of capital investments.

The first of these principles is the assessment of the return on investment based on the cash flow indicator generated from profits and depreciation during the operation of the investment project. The cash flow indicator can be used to assess the effectiveness of the project with differentiation for individual years of operation of the facility or as an annual average.

The second principle of evaluation is the mandatory reduction to the present value of both the invested capital and the amount of cash flow. This is due to the fact that the investment process is not carried out all at once, but goes through a series of stages reflected in the business plan. Similarly, the amount of cash flow for individual periods of its formation should be reduced to the present value.

The third principle of evaluation is the choice of a differentiated percentage (discount) in the process of discounting the cash flow for various investment projects. The amount of income from investments (in the form of cash flow) is formed taking into account the following factors:

? average real discount rate;

? inflation (premiums for it);

? investment risk premiums;

? premiums for low liquidity of investments (for long-term investment).

Given these factors, when comparing projects with different levels of risk, unequal interest rates should be applied when discounting. A higher interest rate is usually applied to projects with a higher level of risk. Similarly, when comparing projects with different total investment periods (investment liquidity), a higher rate of interest should be applied to a project with a longer implementation period.

The fourth principle is that various variations of the forms of the interest rate used for discounting are selected based on the objectives of the assessment.

To determine various project performance indicators, the following can be selected as a discount rate:

1) average deposit or loan rate (for currency or ruble loans);

2) the individual rate of return (return) required by the investor, taking into account the rate of inflation, the level of risk and liquidity of investments;

3) rate of return on government securities (bonds of federal and subfederal loans);

4) rate of return on current (operational) activities;

5) alternative rate of return for other similar projects, etc.

The discount rate (discount rate) is expressed as a percentage or fraction of a unit. In Russian investment practice, the following discount rates are distinguished: commercial, project participant, social and budgetary.

The commercial discount rate is used in evaluating the commercial effectiveness of the project. It is determined taking into account the alternative (related to other projects) capital efficiency. The commercial efficiency of the project takes into account the financial consequences of its implementation for the participant, assuming that he bears all the costs necessary for the implementation of the project and enjoys all its results.

The discount rate of a project participant expresses the effectiveness of enterprises (or other participants) participating in the project. It is chosen by the participants themselves. In the absence of clear preferences, the commercial discount rate can be used as it. The effectiveness of participation in the project is established in order to verify the feasibility of the project and the interest in it of all its participants.

The effectiveness of participation in the project includes:

? efficiency of participation of enterprises in the project;

? the effectiveness of investing in the shares of the enterprise implementing the project;

? the effectiveness of participation in the project of structures of a higher level (regional and federal executive authorities).

The social (public) discount rate is used in the calculation of indicators of social efficiency and characterizes the minimum requirements of society for the national economic efficiency of projects. It is considered a national parameter and is determined by the federal authorities.

The budget discount rate is used in calculating the indicators of projects financed from the regional and federal budgets. It is established by the authorities (federal or regional), on the instructions of which the budgetary efficiency of investment projects is assessed.

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5.1. Methods for evaluating investment projects

5.1.2. Basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects

The following basic principles are used as the basis for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects:

- consideration of the project throughout its life cycle (billing period);

- cash flow modeling , including all inflows and outflows of funds related to the implementation of the project for the billing period;

- comparability of conditions for comparing different projects (project options);

- principle of positivity and maximum effect . In order for the IP to be recognized as effective from the point of view of the investor, it is necessary that the effect of the project implementation be positive; when comparing alternative IPs, preference should be given to the project with the highest effect value;

- taking into account the time factor . When evaluating the effectiveness of the project, various aspects of the time factor should be taken into account, including the dynamism of the parameters of the project and its economic environment; gaps in time (lags) between the production of products or the receipt of resources and their payment; disparity in costs and/or results at different times;

- accounting only for future expenses and receipts . When calculating performance indicators, only future costs and revenues during the implementation of the project should be taken into account, including costs associated with attracting previously created production assets, as well as future losses directly caused by the implementation of the project (for example, from the termination of existing production in connection with the organization in its place new). Previously created resources used in a project are valued not at the cost of their creation, but at an opportunity cost, which reflects the maximum value of lost profit associated with their best possible alternative use. Past, already incurred costs that do not provide the possibility of obtaining alternative (i.e., received outside of this project) income in the future (sunk costs, sunk cost), are not taken into account in cash flows and do not affect the value of performance indicators;

- taking into account the most significant consequences of the project . When determining the effectiveness of an IP, all the consequences of its implementation, both directly economic and non-economic, should be taken into account;

- taking into account the presence of different project participants, discrepancy between their interests and different estimates of the cost of capital, expressed in individual values of the discount rate;

- multi-stage evaluation . At various stages of development and implementation of the project, its effectiveness is determined anew, with different depths of study;

- taking into account the impact of inflation (taking into account changes in prices for various types of products and resources during the project implementation period);

- taking into account the impact of uncertainty and risks accompanying the implementation of the project.

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Introduction
1. Concept and classification of investment projects
2. Preparation of an investment project and its role in making an investment decision
3. The effectiveness of the investment project
4. Indicators and types of efficiency of investment projects
5. Basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects
Conclusion
Bibliography

Introduction

The condition for the development and sustainable life of any organization is the efficiency of investing in certain investment projects.

The problem of making an investment decision is to evaluate the plan of the expected development of events in terms of how the content of the plan and the likely consequences of its implementation correspond to the expected result.

The very concept of investment (from lat. investio - I dress) means capital investments in sectors of the economy within the country and abroad. Investment is something that is “put off” for tomorrow in order to be able to consume more in the future.

One part of the investment is consumer goods that are not used in the current period, but are deposited in stock (investments to increase stocks).

The other part of the investments is the resources that are directed to the expansion of production (investments in buildings, machines and structures).

Since entrepreneurial activity involves the constant implementation of projects containing innovations and activities aimed at improving production efficiency, it becomes necessary to evaluate and select them.

The feasibility study of the project is the main document that allows potential investors to analyze the attractiveness of the project and make a decision on its financing.

The purpose of this work is to determine the basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, as well as the scheme for evaluating the effectiveness.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved in the work:

- the basic concepts and definition of an investment project, indicators and types of investment project efficiency, as well as the basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects are given.

1. Concept and classification of investment projects

An investment project at an enterprise is considered as a set of measures (proposals) deployed in time, focused on achieving established goals (commercial, social, environmental), meeting a given enterprise development strategy and requiring for its implementation the expenditure (or use) of capital resources (land, capital) or information.

Investment project (investment project) - a plan or program of investment in order to achieve the goals. Sometimes an investment project is understood as a system of organizational, legal, analytical, engineering, economic, accounting and financial documents necessary to justify and carry out the relevant work on the project.

The term "investment project" is used in two senses:

- as a matter, activity, event, involving the implementation of a complex of any actions that ensure the achievement of certain goals (obtaining certain results). Close in meaning in this case are the terms "economic event", "work (set of works)", "project";

- as a system of organizational, legal and settlement and financial documents necessary for the implementation of any actions or describing such actions.

A variety of investment projects implemented in practice can be classified depending on various characteristics. From the point of view of a general approach to the classification of investment projects, the following features can be distinguished:

- type of project - depending on the field of activity in which the project is being implemented (organizational, technological, economic, social, mixed);

- the scale of the project - a monoproject, a multiproject, a megaproject (a monoproject is a project of various types and types, a multiproject is a complex project consisting of a number of monoprojects, a megaproject is a program for the development of regions, industries, which includes a number of mono- and multiprojects);

- type of project - by the nature of the subject area of the project (innovative, educational, mixed, etc.);

- project duration - according to the duration of the project cycle implementation period (short-term - up to 1 year, medium-term - 1-3 years, long-term - over 3 years).

Depending on the type, projects can be classified:

- socio-technical, aimed at increasing the productivity of workers and improving conditions on the ground;

- organizational and managerial, contributing to the improvement of production and increase in labor productivity;

- information related to the improvement of information flows and their automation;

- integrated, consisting of elements of previous projects.

In terms of the scale of implementation, projects can be implemented both at the level of the entire organization, and at the level of individual workshops, sections and individual workplaces.

According to the duration of the cycle, projects can be short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (up to 3 years), long-term (more than 3 years).

The whole set of various investment projects can be classified depending on other features.

2. Preparation of an investment project and its role in making an investment decision

investment project efficiency solution

As noted above, in its most general form, an investment project is usually understood as a plan for investing capital in specific business objects with the aim of subsequently obtaining a profit sufficient in size to meet the requirements of the investor.

In terms of its content, such a plan includes a system of technical, technological, organizational, accounting, financial and legal, purposefully prepared materials necessary for the formation and subsequent functioning of an object of entrepreneurial activity. With the help of an investment project, an important task is solved to clarify and justify the technical feasibility and economic feasibility of creating an object of entrepreneurial activity.

In time, an investment project covers the period from the moment the idea of creating or developing production was born, its transformation and until the completion of the life cycle of the object being created. This period includes three phases: pre-investment, investment and operational.

If the project is being developed in relation to an existing enterprise in the aspect of implementing an investment decision provided for by the enterprise development strategy, then the first stage of the pre-investment phase should be considered the identification of investment opportunities. As long as there is no clear understanding of the sources of funding, of potentially interested investors and the possibility of their participation in the project, there is little point in moving to the development of the project itself.

The preparation of an investment project is most often carried out in two stages: at the first stage, a preliminary feasibility study (feasibility study) of the project is developed, and at the second stage, the final one.

In terms of conceptual content, the first and second stages of the feasibility study are close. The difference lies in the depth of project development, subsequent refinement of the initial technical and economic information, information on possible sales volumes, loan costs and similar information, which ultimately affect the project's performance indicators. However, the peculiarity of the second phase is that the costs here are irreversible, and since the project is not completed, it does not yet generate income. At this stage, issues related to attracting investments are resolved: loans, issue of shares, recruitment and training of personnel.

The specifics of the investment phase, in contrast to the pre-investment phase, is that the established time frame for creating an object of entrepreneurial activity and the amount of costs provided for by the estimate must be steadily met.

Exceeding these parameters is fraught with very serious consequences, and possibly bankruptcy. Of no small importance is the monitoring of all factors and circumstances that affect the duration and costs in order to take timely measures to overcome emerging negative phenomena.

The third phase of the investment project is operational. The total duration of this phase has a significant impact on the economic efficiency of the project: the further in time the operational phase is, the greater the net income will be. This period cannot be set arbitrarily, because there are economically expedient limits for the use of fixed capital elements, which are dictated mainly by their obsolescence.

3. The effectiveness of the investment project

The effectiveness of an investment project is an indicator that reflects the compliance of the project with the goals and interests of its participants.

From the point of view of legislation, the evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects is not mandatory, however, each investor is interested in protecting himself from the loss of invested funds and getting enough profit to compensate for the risks.

The assessment of an investment project is generally reduced to the construction and study of some economic and mathematical model of the project implementation process. The need for modeling is due to the fact that when evaluating a project, a complex and multifaceted process of its implementation has to be simplified, discarding insignificant factors and focusing on more significant ones. As a result, the object of analysis is not the project itself, but the material and cash flows associated with it. Thus, the problem boils down to "translating" project documentation into the language of cash flows, and reflecting the interests of project participants in calculation formulas that allow evaluating cash flows relative to these interests.

As a rule, when evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, the key issues are the following: profitability of investing in a given project; payback period of investments; the degree and risk factors that have a decisive influence on the result.

When evaluating investment projects, they proceed from the information about the project that is contained in the project materials, accepting it as complete, accurate and reliable. During the examination of an investment project, the task is to find out how complete, accurate and reliable it is.

4. Indicators and types of efficiency of investment projects

Determining the level of economic efficiency of investments acceptable to the investor is the most difficult area of economic calculations related to the development of a feasibility study, since here it is necessary to bring together all the many factors of various interests of potential investors, take into account hard-to-predict changes in the external environment in relation to the project, as well as taxation systems in an unstable economy. All this becomes much more complicated due to the fact that the evaluation of efficiency should be based on relevant information for a very long calculation period.

The problem of evaluating the economic efficiency of an investment project is to determine the level of its profitability in absolute and relative terms (ie, per unit of investment costs, capital), which is usually characterized as the rate of return.

Efficiency assessment is carried out according to the system of the following interrelated indicators:

- net income (NP);

- net present value (NPV) or integral effect (another name of the indicator, quite widely used abroad, is the net present (or current) value, net present value (NPV));

- profitability index (or profitability index, profitability (PI));

- payback period (term of return of non-recurring costs of RS);

- internal rate of return (or internal rate of return, profitability, internal rate of retum (IRR)).

A number of subjects take part in the implementation and implementation of the investment project: shareholders (firms, companies), banks, budgets of different levels. The income (gross domestic product) received by society from the implementation of effective projects is then divided between them.

The presence of several participants in the investment process predetermines the mismatch of their interests, different attitudes towards the priority of various project options. The income and expenses of these entities determine various types of investment project efficiency from the standpoint of each participant. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the positions of the project participants are embodied in the initial information and the formation of specific cash flows for calculating performance indicators. Therefore, they may not have the same assessment results and decisions about their participation in the project.

At present, it can be considered generally recognized to distinguish the following types of efficiency of investment projects, presented in Fig. 1.

Figure 1 - Types of efficiency of investment projects

The effectiveness of the project as a whole is evaluated for the presentation of the project and, in this regard, to determine the attractiveness of the project for potential investors.

Public efficiency characterizes the socio-economic consequences of the project as a whole, i.e. it takes into account not only the immediate results and costs of the project, but also "external" in relation to the project costs and results in related sectors of the economy, economic, social and other non-economic effects.

Social efficiency is assessed only for socially significant investment projects that affect the interests of not one country, but several.

For projects that do not require an examination of public authorities, the development of public performance indicators is not required.

The commercial efficiency of the project characterizes the economic consequences of its implementation for the initiator, based on a very conditional assumption that he incurs all the costs necessary for the implementation of the project and uses all its results. Commercial efficiency is sometimes interpreted as the effectiveness of the project as a whole. It is believed that commercial efficiency characterizes technical, technological and organizational design solutions from an economic point of view.

The most significant is the determination of the effectiveness of participation in the project. It is determined in order to check the feasibility of the investment project and the interest in it of all its participants. The effectiveness of participation is evaluated primarily for the enterprise of the project developer (or potential shareholders). This type of efficiency is also called efficiency for the equity capital of the project.

The effectiveness of participation in the project also includes such types as the effectiveness of participation in the project of higher-level structures (financial and industrial groups, holding structures), the budgetary efficiency of the investment project (the effectiveness of state participation in the project in terms of expenditures and revenues of budgets of all levels).

The system of indicators determined to evaluate the listed types of efficiency, and the methodological principles for their calculation are the same. The differences lie in the initial parameters that form the real cash flows for the project in relation to each type of efficiency.

In other words, a single and interconnected system of project parameters is embodied in performance indicators that are uniform in economic nature, depending on their area of application in the economic environment that they should characterize. Some exceptions are indicators of social efficiency. "External" effects are not always possible to take into account in terms of value. In some cases, when these effects are very significant, but it is not possible to evaluate them, only a qualitative assessment of their influence is inevitable.

Assessment of future costs and results in determining the effectiveness of an investment project is carried out within the calculation period (calculation horizon). The calculation horizon is measured by the number of calculation steps. The calculation step in determining performance indicators within the calculation period can be a month, quarter or year.

The costs incurred by the participants are divided into initial, current and liquidation, which are carried out, respectively, at the stages of construction, operation and liquidation.

For the valuation of results and costs, basic, world and settlement prices can be used.

The basic prices are the prices prevailing in the national economy at a certain point in time tb. The base price for any product or resource is considered unchanged throughout the entire billing period.

Measurement of the economic efficiency of the project in basic prices is carried out at the stage of feasibility studies of investment opportunities.

At the stage of the feasibility study of an investment project, it is mandatory to calculate the economic efficiency in forecast and settlement prices. At the same time, it is recommended to carry out calculations in basic and world prices.

The forecast price Цt of a product or resource at the end of the t-th calculation step is determined by the formula:

Цt = Цб J(t,tn),

where Cb is the base price of a product or resource;

J(t,tн) - coefficient (index) of change in prices of products or resources of the corresponding group at the end of the t-th step in relation to the initial moment of calculation tн (at which prices are known).

For projects developed by order of government bodies, the values of price change indices for certain types of products and resources should be set in the design assignment in accordance with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation.

Estimated prices are used to calculate integral performance indicators if the current values of costs and results are expressed in forecast prices.

This is necessary to ensure comparability of the results obtained at different levels of inflation.

Settlement prices are obtained by introducing a defiling factor corresponding to the general inflation index

When developing and comparatively evaluating several options for an investment project, it is necessary to take into account the impact of changes in sales volumes on the market price of products and the price of consumed resources.

When evaluating the effectiveness of an investment project, the comparison of multi-temporal indicators is carried out by bringing (discounting) them to the value in the initial period.

To bring the costs, results and effects at different times, the discount rate (E) is used, which is equal to the rate of return on capital acceptable to the investor.

Technically, it is convenient to bring the costs, results and effects that take place at the t-th step of calculating the implementation of the project to the basic point in time by multiplying them by the discount factor a t, determined for a constant discount rate E, as:

,

where t is the calculation step number, t = 0,1,2,...T, (T is the calculation horizon).

If the discount rate changes over time and is equal to Et at the t-th calculation step, then the discount factor is equal to:

and for t > 0.

As already noted, due to the fact that the investment project brings together several participants whose goals may not coincide, and therefore there are other performance indicators that were not reflected in this work.

Having considered the concept of the effectiveness of investment projects, let's move on to the consideration of the basic principles of efficiency assessment.

5. Basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects

The principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects and business decisions are a set of fundamental requirements that must be met by justifying the effectiveness of the implementation of any projects and business decisions.

In accordance with the officially approved Guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, the most significant of them include:

- cash flow modeling. It includes all project-related cash receipts and disbursements during the entire project cycle;

Accounting for the time factor. It is necessary to take into account the dynamics of the parameters of the project and its economic environment (changes in the exchange rate of the national currency, interest rates, etc.), as well as gaps in time between the production of products, the receipt of resources and their payment. It is important to take into account the disparity of costs and/or results at different times;

- taking into account the impact of inflation, i.e., changes in prices for various types of products and resources, during the project implementation period, taking into account the possibility of using several currencies during the project implementation;

- taking into account (in quantitative form) the impact of uncertainties and risks accompanying the implementation of the project;

- compliance with the comparability of the conditions for comparing various projects (project options);

- accounting only for future cash receipts and payments. Previously created assets are valued at the opportunity cost or maximum lost profit associated with their use as an alternative to the project under consideration;

- comparison of the scenarios "with the project" and "without the project", while paying attention to the most common mistake - replacing the scenario "without the project" with the scenario "before the project". This leads to the fact that the calculations do not take into account the damage caused by the refusal of investments;

- taking into account all the most significant consequences of the project in related areas of the economy, including social and environmental;

- taking into account the discrepancy between the interests of different project participants and various estimates of the cost of capital, expressed in individual values of the discount rate.

Conclusion

Preliminary studies of investment projects make it possible to assess the practical feasibility and economic feasibility of implementing the project under consideration.

However, the use of any, even the most sophisticated, methods will not ensure complete predictability of the final result, the main goal is to compare the investment projects proposed for consideration on the basis of a unified approach, using, if possible, objective and verifiable indicators and compiling a relatively more effective and relatively less risky investment project analysis .

To do this, it is advisable to take into account and apply all types of project analysis, based mainly on discounting the cash flows generated during the implementation of the project.

The general scheme for all types of evaluating the effectiveness of project analysis is basically the same and is based on forecasting positive and negative cash flows (roughly speaking, expenses and income associated with the implementation of the project) for the planned period and comparing the resulting cash flow balance, discounted at the appropriate rate, with investment costs. And measures to assess the risk of investing and the application of the methodology for accounting for uncertainty in financial calculations, which allow to reduce the impact of incorrect forecasts on the final result and thereby increase the likelihood of a correct decision, can significantly increase the validity and correctness of the analysis results.

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