The dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017 assumes a change in the status quo to foreign exchange market. Excessive strengthening of the domestic currency has a negative impact on economic development and threatens recovery from recession.

In addition, the budget is deprived of revenues from energy exports.

End of the crisis

The Russian economy is restoring positive dynamics, IMF representatives believe. The fund's experts predict GDP growth this year by 1.4%, which indicates that the negative consequences of the recession have been overcome. However, worsening external factors could provoke further shocks for the Russian economy.

The IMF notes the following risks that could lead to a deterioration in the economic situation:

falling energy prices;

global economic slowdown;

geopolitical factors, including the future fate of sanctions.

The economic recovery is helping to strengthen the ruble, which continues to regain lost ground. In addition, the depreciation of the dollar in the first quarter is associated with an improvement in the trade balance, the Central Bank emphasizes. January-March is traditionally a strong period for the Russian currency, which is associated with an increase in export transactions.

According to the Central Bank, the balance sheet surplus in the first quarter reached $22.8 billion, including additional revenues provided by credit organizations, which intensified foreign exchange transactions.

Another factor that contributed to the strengthening of the ruble was the influx of speculative capital. The high discount rate of the Central Bank attracted speculators who received significant income.

Currency market trends threaten the recovery of the domestic economy, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. In June 2017, the dollar exchange rate will resume rising, which is recorded in the forecast of the head of the department.

Bet on dollar

The strengthening of the ruble has a negative impact on economic development, the Ministry of Economic Development is confident. The cost of the dollar is 60 rubles. does not correspond to fundamental factors and trends of the oil market. The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, predicts a quick increase in the dollar exchange rate.

Oreshkin believes that a trend reversal in the foreign exchange market will occur at the end of the second quarter. A deterioration in the trade balance in this period will lead to a correction in currency quotes.

The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes a weakening of the ruble in the near future to 62-63 rubles/dollar. At the same time, officials do not rule out a new decline in oil prices, which will create additional pressure on the position of the ruble.

The Central Bank allows the price of “black gold” to fall to $40 per barrel. The oil market is still far from balanced, which increases the level of uncertainty. In addition, the restriction on oil production, which ensured an increase in quotations to $50 per barrel, may end in June.

The decline in oil prices will lead to a weakening of the ruble to 65-70 rubles per dollar, analysts say. In order for the Russian currency to remain stable in the medium term, the government will have to launch a number of reforms.

Waiting for reforms

Reducing dependence on oil market fluctuations depends on officials’ willingness to reform domestic economy. In particular, the authorities will have to change the current budget rule, which leads to the actual dispersion of resources.

Previously, most of the income from exports was used to finance current expenses, including the fulfillment of social obligations. At the same time, the economy lost necessary investments, which held back the pace economic growth. In the new conditions, it is necessary to concentrate resources for the development of high-priority projects that will form an additional impetus for the development of the domestic economy.

Another global task of the authorities is tax reform, which will stimulate the development of entrepreneurship. Officials continue to discuss the parameters of future changes, but the final version of the reform has not yet been prepared. The introduction of innovations is expected in 2018.

In addition, the government needs to concentrate its efforts on improving the investment climate and increasing the efficiency of public administration. Otherwise Russian economy expects a protracted period of stagnation.

The strengthening of the ruble in the first quarter is associated with an improvement in the trade balance and the recovery of the Russian economy. However, the excessive strengthening of the ruble becomes a problem for economic development, which forces officials to take appropriate action.

In June, the dollar exchange rate will reach 62-63 rubles/dollar, which is reflected in the basic forecast. A new decline in oil prices will provoke a weakening of the ruble to 65-70 rubles per dollar, experts warn.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine “site”! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and dollar will cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends and so on.

After all, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens due to its total instability . The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by rising prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners are concerned with one question: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions; even experienced analysts hesitate to make specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually strengthen, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future? latest news+ our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will learn our vision from the forecast of the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

Do you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even based on the policies of the Central Bank.

The motive for introducing sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to secede from unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 a referendum was held, which attracted more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and the further annexation of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the residents of Crimea they wanted it themselves separation from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, candidate countries for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit Russian banks' access to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft manufacturing.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• "Gazpromneft".

The following Russian banks were hit by sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• "Gazprombank";
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not spare industry either. Russian Federation:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions consist of a prohibition for residents of the European Union and their companies to carry out transactions with securities whose expiration date more than 30 days , assistance to Russia in the production of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited transactions with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also prohibited the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying goods, services and special-purpose technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any EU country, not to mention entering the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, to companies subject to sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for a period of more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to support Russian military forces to Russian territory. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft that were developed by US forces or that contain elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade and economic relations among companies and banks and so on.

As we see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something to ensure the normal functioning of the country and stabilize the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. In response to Russia's sanctions, the European Union is introducing retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

Having cooperated, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export. Trade in petroleum products is currently at a low level, and all because prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia achieve its share of stabilizing the national currency over time.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine turning into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You shouldn’t expect such actions from the US government; by bending to Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency has fallen by more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This is especially concerning for people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, shares and other assets from this broker .

The ruble exchange rate is falling, and it is unknown whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil prices and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable positions. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the falling exchange rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the exchange rate through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the rate of inflation and credit policy countries.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. alarming
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in the countries of Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should regain its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Alarming scenario

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Collapses in the oil market only worsen the situation regarding the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate to the ruble was 68 rubles, Now U.S. $ costs 65-75 rubles.

Our government’s plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. Export development is where the state’s efforts are directed.

Of course, the export of goods will bring the country additional income, as Russia copes with a production deficit. Power of the state production forces do not allow the processing of crops collected by Russian farmers and diggers.

You should not expect the ruble exchange rate to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations for a decrease in the level of internal gross product, was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of the next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The decline of the economy cannot have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage decline in GDP, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the terms and conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. So low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

There will be several reasons for this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. This primarily concerns natural gas, which through its exports brings a large share of the country’s income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent annexation of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital from the country.

In such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible escalation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble on the foreign exchange market. Forex market. Many factors influence the depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can highlight those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investments from Western partners in securities and the assets of Russian companies contribute to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is poorly developed. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only to meet the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its the state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income.
• Population's attitude towards the national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning is in these words; people treat him normally. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country’s lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, like residents, so Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high production volume will make it possible to meet not only the needs of the country, but also to export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors in the fall of the ruble

Along with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They devalue the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, and our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our cash savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its exchange rate. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the decline of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest money in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble is losing its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation of the exchange rate in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. The game of the population with exchange rates. Most Russians have a desire to make money on exchange rates. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, after looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people ensure secure storage of their savings through a stable currency. At moments when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply, huge transfers were made exchanging Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures a fall in the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize.
4. Measures Central Bank . During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still; industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sales is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. Equipment that remains from the times Soviet Union, does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for approximately the same price category as domestic producers. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, by giving preference to goods from another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country’s balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said: 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts on this matter.

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Through the “Instruments” tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. The Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Russian Finance Minister, Alexey Kudrin , believes that the country's economy is subject to a huge recession in the near future. This opinion was inspired by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I completely agree with Kudrin’s opinion. According to the economist, economic recovery and achieved level stability is just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . Occupying the post of head of the Finnam Management company, he associates the reason for this situation with the rapid fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the price of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export “black gold” on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby “cutting off the oxygen” for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which completely depends on the environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government agencies.
• Federal backup system USA, whose policies will be associated with certain activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today’s measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors behind the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These include external sanctions from other states and the country’s external debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the price of oil will $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. This price will further reduce 10-15 % from today's value of the ruble.

Modern opinion financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, you need to understand for yourself the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price decreases, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. External Economic Bank predicts the cost in 6 $0 per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level for this price is at $70, and the support level is at $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. If it breaks down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of the absolute minimum over the last decade and was equal $28 per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has been unable to stabilize its position relative to others. foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the value of their national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and a dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles . As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country’s economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to implement measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some countries, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the opportunity to enter the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal to 55-58 rubles, if OPEC's policy will help raise prices per barrel of oil to $75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows, sent to our country, will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion production capacity, as a consequence of the reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

We should not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not benefit our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the national currency exchange rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be around $70 per barrel.

All world banks They all agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting a rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to boost the economy as a whole, we will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because you shouldn’t expect a quick return to the previous situation.

7. Frequently asked questions about ruble and dollar exchange rates 📢

Question No. 1. Is it true that the dollar will be abolished in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

On this moment The government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for economic development countries. One of the points of the plan is precisely to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory blow.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the financial world system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the Russian national currency.

For example, trading a national resource of Russia, like natural gas, for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to depreciate in relation to the ruble. In cases where large countries decide to sell American treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire financial system The USA will collapse instantly.

General Director of City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov states that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the population's savings are, to a greater extent, stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which will ultimately lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to combat the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question No. 2. What is the forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for the coming week?

When forecasting the exchange rate you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future; they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change or stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, since there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate.

We remind you that the latest forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question No. 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must be at an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from a country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has biggest state debt . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which creates domestic debt countries. Based on this, the value of the dollar as a world currency should fall.
But questions arise as to why, given this situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why do expert forecasts not come true year after year, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What consequences could there be of a falling dollar?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come to replace it. It is necessary to think about what currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts give Euro to replace dollar. But we should not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

This stagnation is also to blame large debt America to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were experiencing a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use it as a currency basket. exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated funds and possibly increase them.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using the dollar as a currency basket promotes stability and demand for national currency America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to maintain the exchange rate of its currency at high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault economic crisis this was one of the “powerful moves” on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

As a method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar exchange rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is only possible in the following cases:

1. sale major countries the world of treasury bonds of American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. If countries stop trading using the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, when trading and purchasing, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity; it will become less in demand.

Question No. 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed’s decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rate, which may negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our views on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

*Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market yourself, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a quick stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain amount of patience; the ruble exchange rate will strengthen soon.

But despite such rosy prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the last two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia will face full budget deficit.

After all, the country’s income will drop significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state requires considerable cash. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level to improve wages and pensions.

Need to increase purchasing power population, increase the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But we need to look at today’s situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making deposits to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that everyone is looking for the answer to the questions - “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, making their own forecasts and relying on their own principles.

If you have questions or suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

The modern economic conditions that have developed in our country recently make most citizens actively interested in changes in the value of currencies, therefore latest forecast dollar exchange rate for June 2017 will certainly be of interest to many residents of the country.

For almost every Russian, his stability financial situation is directly related to the processes that occur in external and internal markets, including the relationship between exchange rates. It is important to understand what value of the national currency should be expected in the near future in relation to other money, for example, the dollar.

At the Ministry of Economy of our country, professionals have compiled special long-term forecasts for the period from 2015 to 2018. It is these forecasts that are used by world analysts and experts who want to predict in advance the value of the dollar in ruble equivalent. But, unfortunately, clearly define dollar exchange rate for june not so simple, because the most unforeseen events are possible that affect the foreign exchange market. The experts themselves do not currently provide specific figures, so the exact forecast of the dollar exchange rate for June has not yet been announced at the official level. All estimated estimates are based on ambiguous assumptions, so you can only be confident in today's prices, which are presented in exchange offices.

According to leading Russian experts, the country risks losing up to four percent of investment investments within two years, and this in any case will affect how much it will amount to. dollar exchange rate for june. If we talk about more general forecasts, they talk about a possible increase in the value of the dollar to sixty rubles per unit, while some experts suggest a critical rate of fifty-eight rubles. In order to stabilize dollar exchange rate for june, the authorities need to think about changes in the Russian economic situation as a whole, by attracting their own resource base. At least, the outflow of investment investments, in this case, will not affect the value of the national currency to the extent that it can happen now.

Although dollar exchange rate for today more or less stable, there are many different risks that can stimulate it sudden jump, and you need to be prepared for this. Therefore, experts are in no hurry to put forward clear figures; one or another political decision may change the situation dramatically. Unfortunately, without knowing about the president’s plans, even the most qualified specialist will not be able to give clear forecasts. One thing is for sure, if militarized conflicts are minimized, there is a high chance of an improvement in the situation on the foreign exchange market and in the economy as a whole, and then dollar exchange rate forecast for June will be encouraging.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017

Today we will tell you what the dollar exchange rate will be in June 2017 and give a fresh forecast for USD pair/RUB, which will be as close as possible to the most probable estimates. So everyone exchange rate may be at the level of one of three points: the top of them will be the mark of fifty-eight rubles, the bottom – fifty-four, and the middle mark will be fifty-six rubles. Dollar exchange rate for today has stabilized a little, but, according to experts, another increase in the value of the American currency may take place in the summer.

All circumstances on the world market indicate the need for Russia to focus on its own resource potential, maximizing the development of its own capacities and enterprises. Only by developing the state’s economy will it be possible over time to reach stable market indicators, but for this it is necessary to have a stable financial foundation.

Experts can't say which one is accurate dollar exchange rate for june should be expected by citizens, but, nevertheless, they are advised to keep financial resources not only in national currency, but also in foreign currency, and it is advisable to have both dollars and euros in savings.

From the article you will learn:

Good afternoon, dear visitors and readers of our site. Today we will look at the dollar forecast for the week of June 12.06.2017-16.06.2017. We will consider the forecast in the context of the USD-RUB currency pair.

Fundamental Analysis

So, many experts are confident that there is practically no potential for the ruble to strengthen against the dollar. The fact is that the price of oil is falling, which puts significant pressure on the national currency of the Russian Federation.

However, the ruble continues to actively maintain its current positions, even despite the decline in the value of black gold. Soon there will be a Federal Reserve meeting in the United States, and many experts are inclined to believe that rates will be raised. In turn, if at a meeting TSB RF key rates will be lowered, then by July we can expect a significant decrease in the value of the ruble against the dollar.

Technical analysis

Now let's look at what levels you should pay attention to in order to be able to open a good position.

The figure above shows the situation for the USD RUB currency pair from the H4 interval. We see that the price managed to gain a foothold above the gray marked . There was a struggle on it for several days, but this level survived. In view of this, I consider it advisable to open a buy deal with the nearest target to the red level. However, if the gray level does not hold and the price breaks through it and consolidates below it, then in this case it will be free to consider selling with a target to the nearest green level. As for the trend, at the moment the currency pair is developing.

Total

If you believe the opinion of experts, few people now remain confident that the ruble will continue to strengthen. Still, the overwhelming majority of experts are confident that in the near future the dollar will strengthen against the ruble. We just have to monitor the situation, at the same time, wait for the highest quality signals and watch how the price behaves at the levels.

Taking into account the current economic situation within the country, a very important point in investment and capital management for everyone is changes in the value of the dollar as of June 2017. It is impossible to completely predict the value of currencies and economic instruments. However, given the relationship between the dollar and a barrel of oil, a forecast can be made based on the chart and expert opinions. Some of them are expected to devaluate by mid-2017.

June 2017 can be called a crisis month.

Relationship with the price of a barrel of oil

Everyone knows that the value of the currency of the Russian Federation is interconnected with the market price of oil and gas. The cost of minerals today has fallen two and a half times compared to 2003-2004. Having a tendency to stagnate for a long period, the commodity exchange will not provide a good price per barrel by June 2017.

Evaluating these data, we can conclude that the ruble to dollar ratio will be similar. To increase the value of the ruble against the leading world currency by June 2017, it is necessary to reduce tax losses among the rich, economists say.

2017 according to leading analysts

Domestic experts start from the current financial situation in the country. Production indicators have been reduced and exports have been artificially slowed down. Any import, except the oil and gas sector, cannot cause positive trends in economic development. For a long time, the decline in Russian industry has not been restored since the perestroika stage.

Experts in the field of production and industrial development assure that in mid-2017 our compatriots will not expect positive trends towards an increase in the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro. This is possible after several years, by lifting the sanctions blocks in favor of Russia.

The Minister of Economy confirms the protracted crisis trend for the country for five years. June 2017 is no exception. It's not just the cost of imports, but also the assets of individuals. Without them, the development of less important sectors is impossible. The oil and banking industries are not interested in private small investments. Understanding the difficult situation, the media are interested in creating a stable information background on this basis by mid-2017.

The purchasing power of the ruble cannot be restored in a short time. To do this, it is necessary to attract not only friendly non-gasified countries, but also to reduce expenses on the military complex. Russian funds They are also interested in ensuring that the price of the dollar does not rise as of June 2017. Free assets are increasingly falling into areas that are unfavorable for the ruble zone.

From the point of view of the European Union, the price of oil will increase by 10-20 percent by mid-2017. This cost is predicted due to the current situation. The fact is that medium and small oil and gas production is not profitable at prices below $50 per barrel. We can hope for a strengthening of the ruble due to the bankruptcy of weak resource-extracting companies.

Central Bank reporting

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development promises a dollar exchange rate of 58 rubles for June 2017. The fact is that, according to the analytical department, a recession is planned for this month. This restoration process will take the entire year 2017.

For officials senior management a dollar price of 58 rubles or more will be dangerous due to high inflation rates. This will have a detrimental effect on the inflow of investment capital. The head of Sberbank announces the instability of the ruble for the next three to four years. In June 2017, the dollar will increase its value and will be 57-78 rubles.

The quote will drop below 52 rubles only after four years, but under the right circumstances. The obsolete oil and gas industries will not provide the required stable exchange rate for the ruble zone if there are economic blocs and sanctions in the Russian Federation.

We can evaluate financial condition ruble for 2017 as unstable.