Next year promises to be difficult for Russia. Considering the general inaction of the authorities against the backdrop of a worsening recession in the national economy and the refusal of the country's top leadership to take decisive action, one can expect a continued deterioration in the financial and economic state of the state. In addition, the coming year will have to determine the vector of subsequent development for the coming years. The starting point will be the presidential election.

Already at the beginning of 2017, experts made preliminary forecasts for the development of the Russian economy in 2018. Thus, specialists from financial-analytical, consulting, investment and insurance companies provided rather diverse information. Despite significant differences in the options presented by analysts, they have something in common - the invariable binding of the economic state to the vector of external and domestic policy. Also, the economic forecast of foreign specialists of rating agencies and financial companies for Russia for the next 2018 is "sharpened" for probable political events, military actions and the resolution of territorial disputes.

Unjustified optimism is redundant

For financiers who closely monitor the state of national economies European countries and the United States, the position of the current government looks incomprehensible and rather risky. It officially announces the end financial crisis and most difficult times for households and businesses. All this is happening against the background of rather modest indicators. Russian economy at the end of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP is characterized by a decline. But this year it was only 1.2%, and not 3.7%, as in the same quarter last year. At the same time, the economists of the magazine "Profile" remind readers that the slowdown in the decline is not equivalent to the beginning of growth. At the same time, the recession in the economy continues, which was reflected in the April statistics. In particular, Vnesheconombank analysts say that April results are negative.

Experts note the generally unsatisfactory dynamics in terms of GDP over the past 4 years (Fig. 1).

Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate

The relative multidirectional movement of indicators characterizing the country's economy creates a false impression that the situation has leveled out and the crisis has been overcome. However, it is worth subjecting the fresh data to a thorough study and this is the picture that emerges. On the one hand, there is an increase in the export and raw materials sector, which is estimated, on average, at one and a half percent. growing and defense industry, then by 15%, then by 13% per year. And even agriculture, forgotten by everyone, has a steady growth of 3% per year.

And with all this, what can we expect from a country that has been experiencing a steady decline in incomes for the past 16 months in a row? This quite naturally leads to the decline of retail trade, the service sector, the construction market, the automotive industry, tourism, and so on. A steady decline in investment in the economy also does not seem to be a positive factor that allows one to talk about economic recovery. The forecast of experts regarding the possibility of leveling off the investment market also remains disappointing against the backdrop of continued tense relations with the West and the aggressive sanctions policy of Europe.

Forecast baseline for the Russian Economy according to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast

Although the opinions of analysts differ in terms of when the rise in Russia will begin, which official sources report, but the physical presence, which cannot be found in financial terms, it is worth counting on the fact that it will become clear in 2018 at least that what course the state will take. The normal state of the economy, according to all existing theories, is growth and expansion. In general, the reversal from a fall of 0.8% to an increase of 0.5% is small, overcoming it advanced economy possibly over a period equal to the financial year.

Forecasts for Russia depend not so much on the capabilities of its production and service sectors, but on export prices for resources. In particular, if the price of oil rises to $60 during this year alone, then our country has very real prospects for starting a new trend, turning the situation around and directing the rails of economic development towards growth. However, every single expert predicts that even if prices rise to at least $57 per barrel, this trend will not be long-term and will not allow our economy to recover. There are already examples of such market behavior and their consequences were not positive for Russia (Fig. 2).

Do not seek to convert your savings into foreign currency in 2018. The presence of problems in the country's economy suggests unpredictable volatility currency pairs and the market of financial instruments as a whole. It is better to invest in the so-called "long" money with a payback of 2-3 years.

However, there is no certainty that responsible persons in the Ministry and the Government do not expect such “gifts” from the market and do not plan to form a budget for 2018 based on such unjustifiably positive calculations.

Rice. 2. Price dynamics are not oil

Possible ways of development

Additional issue of money: the last hope or a chance for a "recovery"

Due to the lack of prospects for positive changes in the Russian economy, a dispute flares up with renewed vigor among specialists about the possibility of using additional emission of money supply as a support tool. While analysts are only speculating about how high the risks of running a printing press are and are waiting for the consequences, the country's leadership has long decided that printing money is possible. What is it used for?

• military spending;
• fulfillment of obligations to employees in the public sector of the economy;
• observance of obligations in the social policy of the state;
• ensuring the need for financing targeted programs.

An experiment of this kind has already been carried out, in particular, the largest fact of launching the money supply into the economy was the purchase of the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance foreign exchange. At the same time, it is planned that the Central Bank in a fairly short period of the next year can thus introduce more than one and a half trillion rubles into the economy, including through the bank rescue program. What awaits Russia in 2018, if already now an additional mass of money has been printed in the amount of 358 billion rubles. This money will subsequently be issued to all depositors whose banks the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revoked the license to carry out activities.

With such a financing policy, one can expect the Central Bank to simply determine the allowable issue volume for 2018 for Russia. However, such an approach will not only slow down the current development, but will also become a problem for the new (if it is new) leadership of the country, which will begin to fulfill its duties in the first half of 2018.

Against the optimistic economic forecast for Russia for 2018, there is still another significant limiting factor - the refusal of the current government to look into the future. No substantive decisions regarding the development of the system puts the entire future of the state at great risk.

The economic situation has a trend towards fixing the existing directions that want and support the system in working condition, but do not give it the opportunity to get ahead.

Thus, most forecasters expect that the scenario for the country's economic development in 2018 will be more negative than positive, regardless of what the official positions of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Government are.

Alexei Kudrin spoke out against the government's budgetary policy. He calls for loosening the "fiscal rule" to increase spending on stimulating economic growth and investment in human capital. Otherwise, the public debt will grow with the effect of "snowball".

Former Minister of Finance, and now head of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin published an article in the journal "Economic Issues" entitled "Budget rules as a tool for a balanced budget policy" (co-authored with the head of the laboratory of the Institute for Applied Economic Research of the RANEPA Ilya Sokolov).

The authors do not agree with the draft budget for 2018-2020, which is currently being discussed by Parliament. He believes that the budget rule, which the Ministry of Finance plans to adhere to in the next three years, is excessively rigid and limits spending. federal budget.

Kudrin proposes starting next year "to slightly soften the definition of the base oil price in the budget rule: to increase its value from $40 to $45 per barrel."

The difference between the cut-off price of $40 and $45 per barrel at constant prices is about $2 billion a year in budget revenues.

Kudrin's article notes that oil price forecasts from leading agencies and international organizations are generally more optimistic than $40 or even $45 per barrel of Urals. Both prices are closer to the lower end of the current consensus forecast, which is $50-60 per barrel.

That is, Kudrin's proposal is not so revolutionary, given that oil has been growing all this year. In October last year, oil fluctuated around $48-50.

Now the price of Brent crude oil has exceeded the psychologically important mark of $60 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Russian oil in January-October this year amounted to $51.15 per barrel, which is a quarter higher than last year.

However, Kudrin is not limited to softening the budget rule. It is necessary, he believes, to increase the marginal budget expenditures "by the amount of proceeds from privatization in the amount of up to 0.5% of GDP."

“Proceeds from privatization is an underestimated resource, as it allows you to attract excess free financial resources from national economy or from abroad, to promote denationalization (increasing competitiveness and abandoning the practice of state paternalism),” Kudrin believes.

The head of the CSR expressed similar thoughts in June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The entire oil sector, he said, should be privatized within 7-8 years.

"State status is more likely to harm him than good," Kudrin argued. The government's official position on the issue of privatization has been repeatedly voiced and each time in this vein: yes, we will carry out large-scale privatization, but not this year and not next, but when the situation improves.

These and other changes in the budget policy Kudrin proposes to make to stimulate economic growth.

“Analysts unanimously predict a long-term stagnation of the Russian economy unless serious structural reforms are carried out. According to the base scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development, the growth of Russian GDP in 2017-2020 will average 1.6% per year, and according to the IMF, the average growth rate in the next 6 years is expected at 1.5% per year,” Kudrin predicted earlier. .

Additional spending is needed to finance structural reforms, investment in human capital, and meeting growing social obligations. If this is not done, then social spending will have to be reduced in the near future, Kudrin believes.

Finally, the result of the current budget policy, if it is not changed, could “become a rapid increase in public debt with the effect of a growing “snowball” and, as a result, a debt crisis is not ruled out,” Kudrin notes.

According to the draft federal budget, the total volume of the state debt of the Russian Federation will grow. In 2018, the maximum amount of the state debt of the Russian Federation will be 15.2 trillion rubles, or 15.6% of GDP, in 2019 - 16.3 trillion rubles. or 15.8% of GDP, in 2020 - 17.6 trillion rubles. or 16% of GDP.

Other experts also criticize the government's policies. When the Ministry of Finance introduced the fiscal rule, it was assumed that this would reduce the dependence of the economy on oil prices. And it will contribute to the development of non-oil and gas sectors and, in general, will spur GDP growth. But the “rule” did not solve this problem. “The return to rising oil prices has not led the Russian economy to a full recovery of the pre-crisis model, when oil and gas revenues were actively translated into growth in domestic demand and consumption,” says Nikolai Kondrashov, an expert at the HSE Development Center.

The failure occurred due to the policy of fiscal consolidation and the restoration of the fiscal rule. With the growth of federal budget revenues by 17.9% (according to data for January-August), expenditures increased by only 4.3%. A similar situation has developed at the level of the consolidated budget (including regional and non-budgetary funds): with revenues growing by 14.2%, expenses grew by only 6.3%, according to the HSE Development Center.

Limiting the transfer of oil and gas revenues to the economy has consolidated the dominance of the commodity sector, experts say.

The Russian economy now retains “all those unfavorable structural trends that emerged in the 2000s against the background of the “oil Eldorado”. In particular, in 2002–2016, the share of the extractive industry and oil refining in GDP at current prices increased by 2.6 p.p. GDP, while the share of manufacturing decreased by 2.8 p.p.

This trend continues to this day. Macro statistics for the third quarter of 2017 turned out to be worse than the second quarter in a number of key positions. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth was observed only in agriculture and in construction. Industry, cargo turnover and wholesale trade fell, while retail trade and services to the population continued to stagnate.

Against the backdrop of rising oil and gas budget revenues, profits in the oil and gas sector grew by 38%. “These resources certainly generate investment demand, fall into financial system, but only to a limited extent contribute to the growth of household incomes and consumption,” experts from the National Research University Higher School of Economics note.

But by the end of the year, the numbers will only get worse. In December, when the "base effect" is exhausted, the Russian economy may well begin to slip. Unless oil prices rise even more.

In the long run, Kudrin's new model would make it possible - ideally - to reduce the budget's dependence on oil and switch over to the fulfillment of its obligations primarily at the expense of non-oil and gas revenues. That is, received not from natural rent, but from real economic activity.

“And keep oil and gas revenues in reserves in case of another economic shock from falling prices for hydrocarbons. How is it done, for example, in Norway. Otherwise, there will really be no economic growth in Russia. Why is growth needed if everything can be bought with petrodollars?” - says Stanislav Murashov, macroeconomics analyst at Raiffeisenbank.

2018 will not be the easiest year for Virgos: what used to be easy will now be given with great difficulty. Therefore, the financial achievements of the representatives of this sign will be entirely their merit.

Great performers

Virgos are executive and responsible workers. They know how to practically organize their entire household. Virgos are indispensable where independence of decisions or personal initiative is not required. Women born under this sign often make good secretaries.

financial generosity

Showing generosity and providing good deeds, Virgos do not often accept gifts in return. This is due to the fact that this zodiac sign does not like to be indebted to someone. Virgos love freedom. And they are afraid of dependence, especially in old age. This has a bad effect on them, making them too economical.

But when Virgos are confident in their financial viability, they allow themselves to freely spend money, but only on necessary things, and not on all sorts of extravagances.

Representatives of the described sign despise loafers, beggars and beggars. But at the same time, the Virgin, without hesitation, will help a friend in trouble. Before spending at least a few rubles on themselves, they will think more than once.

Although for those who really need money, Virgos can give all their finances. Representatives of this sign never throw money down the drain, as it is very difficult for them to get it. Therefore, Virgos always speak sharply about spenders and lazy people.

Focus on what matters

Despite the decline in luck in 2018, many representatives of this constellation realize that they "deserve better." The unbridled growth of desires, not supported by adequate factors and opportunities, will push some Virgos to take unjustified risks, while others will be driven into depression.

Therefore, in 2018, the horoscope advises to focus only on what really works and is guaranteed to bring profit. Otherwise, by the beginning of 2019, Devs will face continuous disappointments and an empty wallet.

The difficult situation in the Russian economy is a heavy burden on the shoulders of the Russians. Factories are closed, production stops, employees of some enterprises are laid off, inflation is growing, purchasing power- this is an incomplete list of what every citizen of our country sees. Whether there is a way out of this situation and when there will be an improvement, everyone without exception is interested.

Crisis in Russia

From 2014 to 2017, the Russian economy has changed beyond recognition. Three years ago, our country looked quite well compared to other states. With the price of the country's main export commodity, oil, at $100, the average salary in the Russian economy, according to statistics, was $1,000. Now, with the cost of oil at $45 per barrel, the earnings of our citizens have more than halved. Currently, the average Russian can earn no more than $400.

If oil prices do not rise in the coming years, the Russian economy will continue to fall. The reason for this is the short-sighted policy of the country's leadership in the previous decade. The government has done nothing to transition the domestic economy to a new track. The country's dependence on energy exports has not been reduced. What this may lead to in the future is evident from the current situation in Venezuela, which also lived solely on oil exports.

K purely economic problems added social costs. At present, the state is no longer able to maintain a high level of social obligations. The reserve fund is melting before our eyes. If this continues, the issue of paying pensions and other social benefits will become acute.

It has now become obvious that the expansion of the territory did not bring the expected dividends. The rise of the depressed Crimea requires more and more allocations from the state budget. Providing Crimeans with water, electricity, gas will require fresh injections into the new subject of the Russian Federation. What is the cost of one construction of the Kerch bridge. All this will increase tension in Russian society. The personification of the growing dissatisfaction of Russian citizens with the policy of the state is the protests of truckers throughout the country.

The "fat 2000s" were spent building an unsound bureaucracy that was mired in corruption. This is confirmed by a film about D. Medvedev's real estate, which has already caused a wave of protests in the country. If the authorities continue to remain inactive, this could lead to a social explosion in many regions of Russia.

The West can take advantage of this and, on the eve of the 2018 elections in Russia, further collapse oil quotes. This can lead to the complete collapse of Russia and its division into specific principalities, which can be easily controlled by both Americans and Europeans.

Kudrin's economic forecast

Most analysts believe that the forecast of the former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation is the most worthwhile and deserves attention. In their opinion, this economist, who headed the financial department for eleven years, is best versed in the economic situation in the country. Thanks to him, a large part of Russia's external debt was paid and a significant amount of money was collected for the state stabilization fund.

He believes that the peak of the crisis in Russia fell on 2015, and now the country has begun to slowly but surely emerge from the crisis. It's too early to relax and do nothing. Decisive action is needed to finally overcome the crisis government controlled. At present, this system does not meet the challenges of the time and is imperfect. It is also necessary to establish trusting relationships between government, business and people. The economist also believes that it is necessary to take the unpopular step and increase the retirement age.

Forecast of other domestic specialists

The opinions of experts in our country differ from each other. This table shows this:

Expert opinion	GDP growth in 2018
Center for Strategic Research	1,8 — 2,7 %
Ministry of Economic Development	1,5 – 2 %
Bank of Russia	1,5 %

Opinions of independent experts

Foreign analysts also have different points outlook on the economic situation in Russia in 2018:

• Specialists of the International Monetary Fund believe that 2017 will be the beginning of Russia's exit from the recession. At the end of 2017, we can count on a gradual recovery of the economy by 1.3%. Next year there will be a stable growth in the region of 1.5%.
• Agency Fitch predicts a decline in oil production in Russia due to falling prices for this type of fuel. EU sanctions will not only not be lifted, but will intensify. Russia will remain in dire economic condition until at least 2020.
• European Commission forecast can be trusted, as she accurately predicted a fall in Russia's GDP in 2015 in the amount of 3.7%. Analysts of this organization believe that the growth of the Russian economy will begin in 2017. In 2018, we can hope for a strong growth of 1%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the country will be 6%.
• Financier D. Soros assures that the resource of the Russian economy is running out, which will force the country's authorities to reduce budget allocations. The fulfillment of the “agreement” between the government of V. Putin and society on maintaining financial stability and the well-being of the nation in 2018 will be in question. The country may face a severe crisis, the consequences of which are unpredictable.

Despite the fact that the current economic situation in Russia is difficult to predict due to the high risk appetite, every year various analytical companies, government experts, international organizations and agencies make a forecast about the development of the economy for the coming years. How will the Russian economy develop in 2018. Let's analyze the forecast of experts, which will help to understand this issue.

Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Forecasting the state of the economy is the primary task of the Ministry. He prepares and publishes research materials on the expected state of affairs for the next 3 years. These data are taken as a basis by the government when approving the budget.

The economic condition depends on several factors. What is the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development on their indicators?

GDP growth rate

Initially, the figure was assumed to be 1.7%. However, later experts revised it downward. So what's next? The latest growth forecasts are:

• according to the optimistic scenario - within 1.4%;
• on a conservative basis - 0.9%.

Despite such rather small values, the MED expects an increase, compared to 2017, in investments in the Russian economy ranging from 2.2% to 3.9% and its revival. This positive trend should continue in the future.

For 2019, the inertial scenario predicts 1.2% GDP growth, the conservative one - 0.7%.

inflation rate

The MED's forecasts on this score are optimistic. It is expected to slow down significantly and reduce price growth:

• by the beginning of 2018 — up to 4%;
• in the subsequent period - up to 3-3.5%.

Low inflation will enable the Central Bank of Russia to lower the key rate. This will reduce the cost of borrowing and improve the state of affairs in the field of lending.

Population income

The high level of inflation and the devaluation of the ruble significantly devalued the wages of citizens of the Russian Federation. This had a negative impact on domestic demand and, consequently, on economic development.

For 2018, it is planned to increase the real income of Russians by 1.5-2%.

Oil production dimensions

In order to balance the oil market and create a sustainable increase in oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended the restriction of oil production until March 2018. However, last news of the oil market allow predicting the volatility of the cost of "black gold" due to existing competition, including due to the expansion of shale oil production in the United States of America.

Modern technologies will reduce the cost of shale projects and increase the US market share in the oil market, and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will allow them to increase oil production. The project promises to be profitable if oil prices fluctuate within $50 per barrel. The position of Saudi Arabia, which is not going to give up its place in the market, is not completely clear either.

Oil prices

2 types of oil price fluctuation forecast are considered:

1. Base forecast. It points to oil prices ranging from $50 to $60 per barrel. If this scenario is followed, the Russian economy will continue its positive dynamics of development.
2. Pessimistic forecast. Oil quotes will fall to $41-45/bbl, which will create additional problems for the budget.

If oil prices fall to $40, economic growth will slow down significantly.

Currency quotes

Experts of the Ministry of Economic Development expect a moderate decline in the value of the Russian currency. In 2018-2019, it will be about 70-71.1 rubles. for 1 US dollar. The positive aspects of the weakening of the ruble can be:

• support for domestic exporters;
• reducing the budget deficit;
• an increase in the ruble price of oil.

On the negative side, one can note the risk of rising inflation, which will affect the incomes of Russians for the worse, and will not make it possible to accelerate economic development.

That is why it is important to stabilize currency market which will lead, among other things, to an increase in the savings of citizens. And this, in turn, will have a positive impact on increasing investment in various sectors of the Russian economy in 2018-2019 and on accelerating the growth of industrial production.

Monitoring of the RANEPA and the Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Experts of this organization believe that the inflation rate in 2018 will be about 6%. They have developed and published 2 development scenarios, depending on the projected oil prices. But in any case, according to experts, the state of the Russian economy will not be able to approach the level of the states that are world leaders.

Optimistic development scenario

GDP growth in 2018 will be 1.9% due to oil prices within $60 per barrel.

The average annual exchange rate of the ruble will reach 57-59.4 rubles. in 2018. And, taking into account the news of the Russian economy, in 2019, independent experts predict the ruble exchange rate at 58.8 rubles. for $1 US.

Due to this, oil and gas revenues will increase, which will reduce the budget deficit. If the state at least slightly increases its social obligations, then the standard of living of the population will rise.

conservative scenario

This scenario, according to experts, is the most possible. GDP growth will range from 0.9% to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. The cost of oil will remain around $40 per barrel. The exchange rate will be from 69 to 72 rubles. for $1 US.

All these indicators will lead to the fact that various economic groups will achieve consumption levels corresponding to pre-crisis parameters. The development of the Russian economy in 2019 will be characterized by an increase in domestic investment in the domestic industry.

Forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Analysts give one of the most optimistic forecasts for 2018 Central Bank RF. In their opinion, Russia expects stable economic growth. The inflation rate by the end of 2018 should be 4%. GDP growth is expected in the range of 1.7-2.3%.

The head of the Central Bank, E. Nabiullina, announced the development by the bank's experts of 2 scenarios of possible development, which have an approximately equal probability of implementation:

1. Optimistic. By mid-2018, the price of oil will be $80 per volume unit.
2. Conservative. Oil quotes will be $60 per barrel of oil.

The underlying cause of economic growth will be an increase in domestic demand, which will lead to an increase in investment and consumption.

The most negative forecasts of Russian analytical organizations

The most negative calculations of further development were presented by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting and the Higher School of Economics. They not only talk about the absence of prerequisites for economic growth, but, on the contrary, predict a zero result (CMASF) or even a recession (HSE).

CMASF analysis

In the optimistic scenario, experts predict:

• oil price within $55 per barrel;
• GDP growth will not exceed 0.5%;
• the real income of the population will increase by 2.2%.

With the basic development option:

• the price of oil will not exceed $40 per barrel;
• GDP growth will be 0%;
• the income of the population will grow by no more than 1.1%.

Analysts of the center even predict that the Russian economy in 2018-2019. may survive a new crisis, referring to the unmarked trends in the domestic market and the existing high external risks.

HSE Conclusions

Forecasters talk about insufficient investment, the depletion of the Reserve Fund, uncalculated risks. The maximum possible GDP growth will not exceed 1% in 2018. All this will lead to a decline in production and a slowdown in economic growth.

Forecasts of foreign experts

International analysts slightly improved their forecasts compared to previous estimates:

1. The World Bank predicts 1.7% GDP growth in 2018. The cost of oil will be about $59.2 per barrel. According to experts, in order to increase consumption and for additional investments made by entrepreneurs in domestic economy, it is necessary to increase wages population and boost investment. To eliminate the crisis in the pension sector, the Bank advises raising the retirement age.
2. Standard & Poor's Global Rating predicts GDP growth by 1.6%. Oil quotes will reach $52.4. In order to increase the degree of consumption, it is necessary to increase the salaries of Russians by at least 10%, which, according to the experts of the organization, is currently not possible.
3. The European Commission assumes that the inflation rate will be 4.7%. GDP growth - 1.1% (previously, the same commission predicted 0.6%, but improved the forecast based on oil prices and, albeit insignificant, but the stabilization of the ruble).

Other foreign experts on the main indicators agree with these forecasts.

What will the Russian economy look like in 2018? The forecast of experts from domestic and foreign analytical organizations gives a different vision of this issue. Which of the predictions will be the most correct - time will tell.

Expert opinion on economics:

Economic impasse: