The ruble coped with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's bearish play - experts. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate Fresh forecast of the dollar exchange rate

U.S. dollarofficial currency United States of America. Bank code- USD. Denoted by $. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. The denominations of banknotes in circulation are: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal reserve system, however, since 1945 they are no longer issued, and since 1969 they have been officially withdrawn from circulation, as they were replaced by electronic system payments. Name monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.

Traditionally on front side US dollar symbols depict presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes These are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 bill has a special design on the back consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and kept in Washington.

It is believed that to counteract printing fake dollars the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

The first decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the price ratio by two precious metal either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued for the first time by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold now costs $35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became the main creditor of Europe. Thus, the US dollar became the world's currency of account and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, chronic US budget deficits led to the fact that the number of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result international agreement a new one was created - Jamaican monetary system, which finally legitimized the abandonment of gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to actually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and German mark.

In 1992, as a result of a fall British pound Sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when the dollar weakened significantly against the Japanese yen - from 136 to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the market crisis developing countries, including default in Russia.

1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve System, which reduced interest rates up to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, which central banks many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite competition with the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for settlements through payment systems. plastic cards out of zone European Union, where the euro predominates.

US dollar is the main currency Forex market. Transactions take place through this currency and basic quotes are set.

Experts' opinions regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that in the near future the collapse of the dollar financial system inevitable due to the enormous foreign debt of the United States, the largest in the world. As of the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, almost twice as fast as China, which is in second position. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in American currency and during crises seek to transfer them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.

Please note that installed central bank Exchange rates do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.

Dollar exchange rateEuro exchange rateRuble's exchange rate
There will be an official course for
08/22/2019 (we will find out through 18 hours)
? ? ?
Current official rate as of 08/21/2019
the best rates in banks
66.7840
+18 kopecks
73.9766
+3 kopecks
fell a little in price
- 0.16%
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If you trade successfully, you can withdraw your money!
Since the last official exchange rate was determined on 08/21/2019 dropped a little
-13 kop.
decreased slightly
-7 kopecks
went up a little in price
+0.14%

(oil during this time: -1.14%)

In the last hour increased slightly
+2 kopecks
increased slightly
+7 kopecks
fell slightly in price
-0.06%

Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange

Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast

Exchange rate forecast for August
dateDay of the weekWellMax.Min.WellMax.Min.
07.08.2019 Wednesday 65.75 66.74 64.76 74.49 75.61 73.37
08.08.2019 Thursday 66.90 67.90 65.90 76.00 77.14 74.86
09.08.2019 Friday 67.48 68.49 66.47 76.72 77.87 75.57
12.08.2019 Monday 67.56 68.57 66.55 76.24 77.38 75.10
13.08.2019 Tuesday 67.69 68.71 66.67 76.45 77.60 75.30
14.08.2019 Wednesday 68.12 69.14 67.10 77.06 78.22 75.90
15.08.2019 Thursday 67.96 68.98 66.94 76.74 77.89 75.59
16.08.2019 Friday 67.86 68.88 66.84 76.66 77.81 75.51
19.08.2019 Monday 67.92 68.94 66.90 76.67 77.82 75.52
20.08.2019 Tuesday 68.09 69.11 67.07 76.47 77.62 75.32
21.08.2019 Wednesday 68.13 69.15 67.11 76.45 77.60 75.30
22.08.2019 Thursday 68.23 69.25 67.21 76.14 77.28 75.00
23.08.2019 Friday 68.20 69.22 67.18 76.45 77.60 75.30
26.08.2019 Monday 68.10 69.12 67.08 76.45 77.60 75.30
27.08.2019 Tuesday 68.55 69.58 67.52 76.62 77.77 75.47
28.08.2019 Wednesday 68.13 69.15 67.11 76.06 77.20 74.92
29.08.2019 Thursday 68.34 69.37 67.31 76.43 77.58 75.28
30.08.2019 Friday 68.04 69.06 67.02 76.10 77.24 74.96
Exchange rate forecast for SeptemberDollar exchange rate forecast for the week and monthEuro exchange rate forecast for the week and month
dateDay of the weekWellMax.Min.WellMax.Min.
02.09.2019 Monday 67.31 68.32 66.30 75.60 76.73 74.47
03.09.2019 Tuesday 67.44 68.45 66.43 75.71 76.85 74.57
04.09.2019 Wednesday 67.29 68.30 66.28 75.45 76.58 74.32
05.09.2019 Thursday 67.58 68.59 66.57 75.40 76.53 74.27
06.09.2019 Friday 67.76 68.78 66.74 75.63 76.76 74.50
09.09.2019 Monday 67.81 68.83 66.79 75.64 76.77 74.51

What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates

If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is for you important indicator every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.

What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:

  • decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. So if you want to play currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currency, you need to follow political news;
  • economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
  • decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble with the help of own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.

Previous rate forecasts

We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these courses have not appeared on the display boards in banks for several years now. exchange offices. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...

Dear visitors to the site “Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!

Exchange rates for today, May 24, 2018: The Bank of Russia raised the dollar rate and lowered the euro rate for today.

Official dollar and euro exchange rates for today, May 24, 2018, Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The official dollar exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia on May 24, 2018 increased by 33.35 rubles. compared to Wednesday’s figure and amounted to 61.59 rubles, the euro exchange rate today, on the contrary, dropped by 5.64 kopecks - to 72.18 rubles.

The value of the bi-currency basket on Thursday increased by 15.8 kopecks compared to the previous figure, amounting to 66.35 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week 2018 in Russia: expert opinion

According to International Financial Center expert Nikolai Shiryaev, the Russian currency has finally recovered from the strengthening of the dollar and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation’s play to weaken it.

The specialist is confident that the so-called soft devaluation to prepare the economy for the next round of anti-Russian sanctions was successful, and the market is regaining its positions, and the regulator will now not stop the planned strengthening of the ruble with additional measures, and the rosy news in the economy will have an effect.

The ruble continues to provide support this week taxable period, which will pull about 950 billion rubles from the market. The limiting factor for the strengthening of the ruble remains the purchase of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in the planned daily volume, but this is clearly not enough to weaken it in the near future,” the Regnum expert quotes.

Another news was the sale by Sberbank of its “daughter” in Turkey. The deal was completed at a discount of $2 billion, and funds from the sale will be credited to accounts in the near future.

"Well currency pair The ruble-dollar at auction continues to fluctuate within a fairly narrow range (0.5 ruble per day). The US dollar/ruble exchange rate will fluctuate around the position of 60.50-61.50 rubles until the start of the forum, and also until the local fixation of profitability of foreign market participants ends with the flow into more and more interesting US assets,” the expert added.

Experts announced a fresh forecast for the dollar exchange rate at the end of May 2018

According to recent expert forecasts, during May 2018 the dollar exchange rate will collapse the ruble. The exchange rate of the domestic currency will in any case decline amid new sanctions and economic problems in Russia. According to authoritative analyst Stepan Demura, it is practically impossible to hold the ruble - it will weaken to 70.00 rubles/dollar by the end of this month, and the dollar will rise at this time.

Strengthening American dollar is happening last month. Against this backdrop, even the euro reached new lows. The dollar is in demand due to the divergence of monetary policy.

The dollar exchange rate will collapse the ruble exchange rate in May

The strengthening of the dollar, the increase in demand for it is cooling American economy, however, in such a situation, the sale of resource assets increases and oil becomes cheaper. Last week, the yield on 10-year securities exceeded 3%, and this fact fueled the rally in the US currency.

The dollar exchange rate in May 2018 will reach 61.00-63.00 rubles.

The latest forecasts of some experts say that in May 2018 the dollar exchange rate will show strong dynamics. Also, experts note, with tightening sanctions against Russia, government securities will cease to be attractive on the stock exchange, Therussiantimes reports. The budget will not receive enough money, the ruble will weaken, and the dollar exchange rate may rise to 75.00 rubles by the end of the year.

    1. May 24, THU - 61.37 rubles;
    2. May 25, Fri - 61.64 rubles;
    3. May 28, Mon - 62.81 rubles;
    4. May 29, Tue - 62.96 rubles;
    5. May 30, Wed - 62.92 rubles;
    6. May 31, Thu - 62.89 rubles.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2018

The Russian currency is showing strengthening. For the first time since April 2018, they offered less than 61 rubles for the dollar, less than 72 rubles for the euro, what will happen to the exchange rate next, according to expert forecasts.

Foreign exchange trading on May 22, 2018 showed changes in investor sentiment towards the Russian ruble. The American currency at the close of the Moscow Exchange was trading at a price of 60.97 rubles: to a level below 61 rubles. The dollar fell only a month and a half ago – on April 20. A similar situation was observed with regard to the euro: less than 72 rubles were offered for the European currency. (RUB 71.87) – for the first time since April 9. Since Monday, the value of the world's largest currencies has decreased by 1.38 rubles. and 1.57 rub.

What is the reason for the fall in the exchange rate of the dollar and euro?

Experts explain this behavior of the dollar and euro by the situation in the oil market, as well as by the fact that exporting companies are running out of deadlines tax payments: Friday, May 25, 2018 – the last day for paying VAT, mineral extraction tax and excise taxes, and May 28 – income tax. According to financiers, in total they will have to pay over 1.6 trillion rubles.

“The intensive sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters in anticipation of tax payments at the end of this week - the beginning of next week is supporting the Russian currency,” explain Rosbank specialists.

Experts also note that the dollar exchange rate is declining not only against the ruble, but also against other foreign currencies– money from developing countries. Thus, the Colombian peso has increased by 2.7% since the beginning of this week, and the Brazilian real by 2.6%. Investor interest in these currencies increased after negotiations between the United States and China: the brewing trade war between these countries, according to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, has been “postponed.”

Experts' forecasts regarding the dollar exchange rate

Financiers believe that unless any extraordinary events occur in the world, the ruble will continue to strengthen in the near future.

“In the absence of geopolitical upheavals, the position of the ruble looks quite stable. Moreover, it is positively influenced by the current high oil prices, to which the Russian currency has not responded for a long time,” says Boris Krasnozhenov, director of markets and equities at Alfa Bank.

Experts believe that the dollar exchange rate on the Russian foreign exchange market may fall to 59-60 rubles/dollar if high prices for “black gold” continue.

The Russian currency was unable to maintain its upward momentum towards its American counterpart. Results of ruble pairs on Wednesday - ₽61.3300/USD And ₽71.7000/euro. The position of the US currency became stronger by 12.0 kopecks, while the value of the Old World currency “sank” by 36.7 kopecks.

The energy market, which received special attention yesterday, showed upward dynamics ($79.80 at closing), but this morning the situation changed ($79.52 at 07:15 Moscow time).

The key reason for the moderate weakening of the barrel is data from the US Department of Energy on the accelerated growth of energy reserves in the United States (+5.778 million barrels instead of -1.567 million included in the quotes). The department’s statistics turned out to be diametrically opposed to the report of the American Petroleum Institute released a day earlier (-1.3 million measuring barrels).

The results of the two-day OPEC summit that ended yesterday help “black gold” maintain acceptable positions. According to the final release, cartel participants in April fulfilled an agreement to cut production of the strategic energy carrier by 172% and will return to consider production quotas at a meeting in June.

Other significant events in the form of Fed minutes and statistics on business activity in the US failed to have a critical impact on the exchange rate (the results of these reports turned out to be close to investors’ expectations). The main driver of the behavior of the ruble in the remaining days of the week, according to bankers, will be the sentiment of players regarding “developing” currencies. Other sources of influence on the exchange rate include oil prices and the activity of corporate taxpayers ahead of Friday’s “peak” transfers to the budget.

— At the beginning of the week, most EM currencies were able to demonstrate growth against the backdrop of declining Treasury yields. However, further strengthening of “developing” currencies is far from obvious. For now, we are focusing on the range of ₽60.80–62.80/USD. We consider the main source of influence on the exchange rate to be the general sentiment of traders regarding EM currencies. Other factors - the tax period and the dynamics of commodity quotations - are currently secondary, commented Promsvyazbank analysts.

Currency strategists at Zenit Bank, for their part, note the decisive influence of tax payments on the exchange rate.

— At the end of the week, the ruble will “enjoy” support from exporters (“the peak” of the May tax payment season falls on Friday). The external background for the ruble remains neutral. Oil prices, despite a slight correction, remain high. US Treasury yields have stopped rising, which is positive for high-yielding currencies.<…>After Friday's tax payments are completed, internal support for the ruble will weaken, representatives of the credit institution warn.

The forecast of the financial institution’s currency strategist Vladimir Evstifeev for Friday evening is ₽63.00/USD.

Binbank, meanwhile, expects the ruble to grow due to expensive oil and the absorption of ruble liquidity begun by the Central Bank. The forecast for the end of the week, announced by the currency strategist of the credit institution, Anton Pokatovich, is ₽61.90-62.80.

Analysts at Vostochny Bank link the near-term prospects for the ruble with geopolitics and unemployment statistics in the United States released today. Financial Institute expert Konstantin Kochergin did not predict the prospects for RUR/USD before the publication of the relevant data.

Experts predict that the US dollar exchange rate in May 2018 will be subject to strong fluctuations. This is not surprising, because today American currency demonstrates his new record. Thus, the dollar rose in price by 1.09 rubles and reached 64.04 Russian rubles. The jump occurred for the first time since April 11, as evidenced by trading data on the Moscow Exchange.

The European currency, at the same time, is valued at 76.67 rubles per euro. It also showed growth, increasing by 60 kopecks.

Financial analysts attribute weakening positions to Russian ruble with a further fall in world oil prices. This comes in anticipation of the release of weekly data on hydrocarbon inventories in the United States. If the same trend continues, the Russian ruble will continue to depreciate in May.

The latest data shows the price of North Sea Brent crude, due for delivery in July, fell 0.6%. Its current price is $72.7 per barrel. June WTI oil futures also fell 0.1% to settle at $67.19 per barrel.

The influence of foreign policy relations on the exchange rate of the national currency

Alpari senior analyst Anna Bodrova previously noted that the weakening of the ruble exchange rate will be felt in the second half of this year. “Foreign policy relations are a rather bright and usually unexpected catalyst for foreign exchange market any country,” the analyst believes.

Anna Bodrova believes that sharp currency fluctuations can only happen if the Donald Trump administration wants to “tighten the screws” in Russian-American relations. The US dollar exchange rate will not rise significantly until the end of May, the expert believes.

Forecast for the US dollar exchange rate until the end of 2018

May of this year may not demonstrate significant changes in the exchange rate of the currency basket, but growth is inevitable until the end of 2018. Analysts believe that much will depend on bonds federal loan. If sanctions against Russia are tightened, then government securities will lose their attractiveness on the stock exchange. The budget will not receive enough money, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will fall again. At this rate, by the end of this year the US dollar exchange rate may reach 75 rubles.