In October, the Russian government set a course to eliminate dollar settlements from the country's economy. What will the de-dollarization lead to and what consequences can be for ordinary Russians from such an idea of ​​​​officials - let's talk about this in more detail.

Everyone in the world loves stability, including market relations. The US dollar has always been considered one of the most liquid and reliable assets backed by the country's economy and its political system. There is no doubt that the US economy is the most powerful in the world. It also does not cause concern and politic system countries. America wins in comparison with China, where there is no transparency of politics with all the power of the economy, and with the countries of Europe with their absolutely transparent economy, but the instability of the political system.

It turns out that for one reason or another, the euro, yuan, and other currencies cannot compete with the dollar.

Who determines the currency for settlements?

This process is influenced by the entire population of the world and each individual. Only a citizen decides in which currency to keep savings. For example, in the Russian Federation these are dollars, euros, rubles, in England pounds sterling, dollars, in China dollars and yuan. The American currency is in circulation all over the world and remains in demand, despite some market fluctuations. Dollars are the easiest to exchange, they can be paid almost everywhere, which cannot be said about other types of currency.

Therefore, the world business uses the American “green” as a universal liquid instrument with a stable exchange rate. It is much more profitable to conclude an agreement in dollars than in the national currency, even if these are transactions between the Russian Federation and China. Such agreements balance the rights of the parties better than transactions in rubles, yuan - the exchange rate of these currencies can change dramatically and put one of the parties at a disadvantage, and such situations practically never happen with the dollar.

Example: Sberbank sold a subsidiary to an Arab investment fund, fixing the transaction in Turkish lira to a certain dollar exchange rate. If not for the exchange rate hedging, Sberbank would have lost a lot due to the sharp devaluation of the Turkish lira.

And, of course, the reliability of the dollar is supported by securities. The most liquid are US government bonds (they are also called Treasuries). The level of reliability of assets is supported by the contributions of many states that own gold and foreign exchange reserves and take every possible care to preserve and increase the country's capital.

First factor pushing for the exclusion of dollar settlements - an increase in the turnover of the national currency. The higher the share of the ruble in transactions across the country, the more stable the demand for the ruble in the international currency market. Also, with the strengthening of the position of the ruble, the efficiency of monetary policy state, it will be easier to control inflation.

The second reason- geopolitical tensions. This is due to US economic sanctions against Russia. Nothing prevents the US government from banning settlements in dollars with companies from the Russian Federation. A simple order prohibiting transfers through US banks would make any transfer in US national currency impossible. The Government of the Russian Federation is clearly not satisfied with this situation.

Will the transition in international settlements to rubles and other currencies help?

Restrictions always hinder normal development - this is the law of the market. The Russian economy will feel the restrictions very quickly - settlements in US dollars are the easiest and cheapest option. It is possible to force a business to work with a reference to the yuan, but apart from Chinese companies, no one will agree to this, and the Russian Federation has partners in Japan, India and a number of other countries. Switching with everyone to the national currency is a utopia.

Therefore, there will be delays in the circulation of finance, and as a result of the exchange of currencies, costs will increase, which will immediately affect the cost of goods and services and literally spur inflation. As an example, try ditching the cheap Moscow metro and driving all day long. You can get there, but taking into account traffic jams, the trips will not only be slow, but also expensive.

Rumors about the conversion of foreign currency deposits into rubles - where does it come from

The Russians have little to surprise. Against the backdrop of numerous negative reports, citizens believe even in the most fantastic rumors and myths. And conversion can also be, for example, if the country's government categorically wants to get rid of the dollar. In this case, banks simply cannot cope with the volume of payments when people want to cash out their foreign currency savings - there is no such amount of currency in the country. All assets are invested in securities, issued as loans, invested in profitable projects. Therefore, when and if it occurs to depositors to close a foreign currency account, then with a lack of currency, banks convert dollars into rubles.

Take or not to withdraw dollars from the bank– this question is particularly acute today. If you take it, you can lose interest, not pick it up - who knows what will happen tomorrow and whether we will get our money back. Experts advise to transfer part of the dollar deposits into euros - now the exchange rate is quite attractive and the liquidity of the European currency is beyond doubt.

Second advice- do not invest dollars in long-term projects with low rates. Such a profit does not justify the risk of freezing finances for several years. Deposits for 3-6 months are much more profitable.

Third tip- to transfer part of the money to the account of subsidiary foreign structures or to large non-state banks. It would also be nice to invest in Eurobonds, shares of foreign companies - in those assets whose liquidity has been tested and confirmed by time.

The topic of de-dollarization has become one of the dominant ones in the economic discussion about the future. Russian economy. This discussion is largely politicized and is seen as a kind of response to the growing sanctions pressure on Russia from the United States and a number of other Western countries. Considering the weight of Russia in the economy of Eurasia, even its partial refusal, purposeful or forced, from the use of the dollar in foreign economic activity will have a significant impact on the economic situation in the countries of Eurasia.

The question of the dollar's gradual loss of its key functions goes beyond the situation around Russia. It reflects and whole line global trends, first of all, the regionalization of world trade, which is accelerating under the influence of global and regional trade wars.

The extension of the US sanctions policy through the system of "secondary sanctions" to global finance undermines confidence in the dollar, which retains dominance in the global financial system, in fact, by inertia, which was achieved through US dominance in the processes of economic and political globalization.

A minor crisis in the global financial system could lead to a sharp drop in confidence in the dollar, not only as a global reserve currency, but as a means of global trade circulation, accumulation and investment.

Recently, fundamentally new organizational (domestic offshores, priority development areas, new international logistics corridors) and technological solutions (cryptocurrencies, bankless financial transactions) have appeared in the global financial system, eroding the dollar’s ​​monopoly in the global financial system. And outside of a global investment monopoly, it is unlikely that the dollar would be able to maintain its status and stability.

Under these conditions, various scenarios for replacing the dollar circulation should be considered as quite normal, given the need to form a state of psychological readiness for such changes.

Features of the dedollarization process

However, it is worth making a few remarks about the peculiarities of the situation:

Global and even regional de-dollarization will always be associated with crisis phenomena and will always be a forced decision. Not a single significant global economic force will initiate such processes on its own, fearing the consequences. Russia, whose financial sector is under intense pressure from the US, can act more boldly without fear of harsh consequences, unlike other countries such as China or the EU. It is significant that the first projects to oust the dollar from the European economy arose under pressure from the United States - in the context of relations with Iran.

A factor contributing to the relative acceleration of de-dollarization is the active use in recent years by the United States of manipulations in the financial sector to exert political pressure on various countries (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, and partly Azerbaijan). Many countries, including those of the post-Soviet space, are simply forced to take self-defense measures against the dollar and the dollar settlement system as the main instrument of destabilizing influence on national financial systems today.

Transition to settlements in national currencies can be considered as one of the elements of the de-dollarization policy, but is not the main tool. At least due to the high risk of external manipulative influence and the dependence of the stability of national currencies on many factors, not only internal, but also external. A full-fledged global de-dollarization will lead to the creation of a new or several new at least regional, but rather sub-global settlement and investment (this is fundamentally important) instruments.

Pushing the dollar out financial system on the global or regional levels is, rather, a process, rather than a project with a predetermined time and quality framework. It is unlikely that it will be "explosive". Rather, we will face a gradual accumulation of changes that, at a certain stage, form a qualitatively new situation. The most likely scenario is sectoral de-dollarization, when a new settlement environment will arise for certain types of goods or services, or specific “dollar-free” markets will form. regional segments economy.

From an economic point of view, East Asia and the regions of Southeast Asia, drawn into the orbit of Chinese economic and political influence, will probably be the key and most rapidly emerging center of post-dollar circulation.

This may become a certain challenge for the countries of Eurasia, since the formation of a new financial system in this key economic growth in the region will most likely be carried out according to the Chinese scenario, that is, with minimal consideration of the interests of other players.

Dedollarization and New Eurasia

In Eurasia, the most promising for sectoral de-dollarization will be the regions where complex and relatively self-sufficient economic systems. For example, the Caspian region, where, as part of the formation of the global industrial and logistics corridor "North-South", an area of ​​mutual settlements will inevitably arise, where the dollar will not play a significant role. If only because of the participation of Russia and Iran in it, against which the US is introducing extended packages of sanctions. We cannot discount the possibility of regional cluster de-dollarization in the regions involved in the Great Silk Road Joint Prosperity Belt project.

The development of the situation will inevitably require the countries of the post-Soviet space and, above all, the member countries of the EAEU, to determine their attitude towards the process of de-dollarization.

The diversity of policies of the EAEU countries, taking into account the degree of integration of markets and the interdependence of financial systems in this matter, given the complexity of the situation in the global economy, is extremely dangerous.

At first glance, the economic space of the EAEU and its partners is a natural platform for various sectoral or geographical pilot projects de-dollarization, especially given the volume of trade transactions within the union. But there are several fundamental difficulties:

The political complexity of the issue. For the elites of the post-Soviet states, any statements about a possible rejection of the dollar could mean a significant crisis in relations with the United States, and most importantly, a rejection of economic policy on investing income in dollar assets and holdings, held for a long time.

Raw material nature of exports with settlements in dollars. De-dollarization will clearly require a change in the nature of payment relations in the most important segments of export-oriented sectors of the economy. Because of this, the prospects for sectoral de-dollarization for the countries of Eurasia should be assessed as relatively insignificant.

The need to restructure the infrastructure of trade operations, and hence the destruction of the established and quite stable functioning systems that balance clan and lobbying interests.

The need for symmetrical measures in cash money circulation and in payment systems, which means a change in the nature of the social space and at least partial recognition of Russia's leadership as a country with the most advanced technological solutions in this area among all EAEU members.

It is obvious that de-dollarization in Eurasia will be of a forced nature and will probably be initiated belatedly as a reaction to the crisis in the global economy.

The main issue in this regard is the need to minimize the possibility of destabilization in connection with the crisis of the dollar system in relations with key external partners of the EAEU. Of course, a quick exit to a coordinated financial policy in such an ambiguous direction now looks unlikely. But even now it is important to prepare in advance the organizational and legal-bureaucratic base for a relatively quick launch of the relevant processes in order to minimize possible damage.

Preparing for dedollarization

In the context of uncertainties in the global economy and the political urgency of the issue for the countries and elites of Eurasia, it is expedient now to outline a number of practical actions that outline the framework of the new “agenda”:

Development and adoption of a unified program and rules of conduct in the event of a new financial crisis global or local. None of the EAEU countries should act as a "financial vacuum cleaner" in the event of a negative development of the situation.

Creation and initial testing of alternative technological channels of financial communications in case of disconnection for political reasons or technical failure in the channels serving dollar circulation.

Development and "beta testing" of agreements on the payment regime of cross-border logistics for the subsequent operation of global transport corridors in a non-dollar (clearing) format.

Recognition in the EAEU countries payment system"World" and its inclusion in payment "pools". Approbation of a system for a rapid transition to temporarily closed electronic payments for the most socially important segments of society.

Conducting stress tests for national financial sectors, including and Insurance companies, development of new mechanisms for reserving the risks of these structures.

Development and partial approbation in the system of border trade of the EAEU countries of trade clearing systems, albeit of a local (regional) nature, but with the possibility of scaling.

Development of crisis programs for the transition to dollar-free trading on key export types of goods (raw materials) and services (logistics) for the EAEU countries.

Refusal to use the dollar in joint projects with state co-investment, an administrative ban on setting prices in such contracts in dollar terms. Insurance of risks of private investors in such projects at the state level.

Pilot issue of EAEU investment bonds for one of the joint projects nominated in a neutral currency (for example, in Swiss francs) or commodity (gold, raw materials) equivalent.

Dmitry Evstafiev, Professor, National Research University Higher School of Economics

The authorities are preparing a plan to abandon the Russian economy from the dollar. Government sources say that Prime Minister Medvedev is going to approve it in the coming weeks. There is no official confirmation of this - however, after a meeting with Vladimir Putin, the author of the idea of ​​\u200b\u200bde-dollarization, the head of VTB, Andrei Kostin, said: in general, the president supported him (previously ministers did this). How will this measure affect ordinary Russians and the country's economy as a whole? We talked about it with the experts.

As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin stated, the government wants to develop a mechanism that improves the use of other currencies in foreign trade. The population, according to officials, will not suffer - a complete ban on the circulation of dollars in the country, as was the case in the USSR, will not follow.

However, the ruble exchange rate may be under attack. Russia's foreign counterparties, for whom the rejection of the dollar and the transition to transactions in the national currency will allow them to accumulate significant ruble reserves, at any moment they will be able to throw this money on the free market and seriously collapse the rate of Russian banknotes.

Almost the entire economic bloc of the Russian government is preparing proposals for the de-dollarization of the financial system. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank are involved in the work on the document. According to Oreshkin, we are talking about the creation of a set of incentive measures that allow the use of other currencies in foreign trade relations.

"This kind of operation will be more efficient, convenient and simple"

the minister is sure

Recall that for the first time the de-dollarization program was presented to President Vladimir Putin in July this year by the head of VTB Andrei Kostin. The banker emphasized that such measures do not mean a complete rejection of the dollar, but are aimed at expanding the use of the ruble in international settlements. Moreover, currency diversification will not be forced - only those business representatives who really benefit from it will be able to use it. According to Kostin, the gradual de-dollarization of the Russian economy will take at least 5 years.

According to the doctor economic sciences Mikhail Delyagin, this will be a forced, not an independent process.

“The United States is ready to impose sanctions that prohibit Russian state-owned banks and state holdings from conducting transactions on the foreign market in dollars. The American currency is becoming toxic. The use of the dollar may be prohibited to other countries with which Russia is in contact.”

expert warns

According to Delyagin, with a decrease in dollar settlements, Russia will become less vulnerable in the event of the introduction of foreign exchange sanctions and will be able to quickly establish bilateral ties with other states without using the "green".

Exposure to the risks of global economic shocks will also decrease, as a diversified settlement system is less exposed to macroeconomic shocks.

At the same time, experts say, the process of de-dollarization may be laborious and will be complicated by the reluctance of other countries to move away from the dollar.

Now the structure of settlements on Russia's foreign trade with other states is approximately as follows:

• In export earnings, the dollar occupies about 70%,
• euro - a little over 14%,
• ruble - about the same.

Other currencies account for less than 2%. Import fees are as follows:

• dollar - 37%,
• euro - 31%,
• ruble - 29%,
• other currencies - less than 3%.

Statistics allow us to conclude that the dollar remains Russia's main settlement currency in foreign trade: its share in export earnings is almost twice as high as the share of import payments. According to Finam Group analyst Alexei Korenev, settlements in US currency are well established throughout the world economic structure. They are cheaper than transactions in other currencies and offsets.

“If the contract is extended in time, then due to the stability of the dollar, the absence of losses due to exchange rate fluctuations is guaranteed. Even China, which is in a trade war with the US, is in no hurry to move away from dollars. At the end of 2017, about 88% of the trade turnover between Russia and China in terms of exports and about 74% in terms of imports was paid in dollars.

- notes Korenev

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a leading analyst at FxProa, notes that although the euro is noticeably behind the dollar, it occupies a confident second place in turnover foreign exchange market Russian foreign trade settlements. However, for the mass transfer of settlements into the European currency, there are their own "pitfalls". In particular, the public debt of Italy has a negative impact on the euro. It has increased to a historic high of 2.3 trillion euros and continues to grow, which in the future is able to exceed 13% of Italian GDP.

“All this puts pressure on the single European currency and undermines confidence in the reliability of the euro”

- says the expert

In this regard, there is no reason to rush to “betray” the dollar in favor of the euro, especially since such actions rarely bring profit and carry the risk of unjustified losses.

According to Mikhail Delyagin, another risk of abandoning the dollar is the high volatility of the currencies of developing countries. The Chinese yuan has fallen 6% this year. The Turkish lira fell by more than 30%. To settle with counterparties in national currencies, you will need to purchase the appropriate banknotes. Reserve accumulations in unstable currencies will lead to the depreciation of funds stored in banknotes that are not among the reserve currencies of the world. Even if the fluctuations are small.

“If you multiply tenths and hundredths of a percent by the volume of trade, you will get losses of hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars”

- Korenev warns

In addition, foreign counterparties of Russia who agree to refuse dollar transactions will have to buy rubles for settlements with companies in our country. We can talk about trillions of rubles. Realize this reserve international market it'll be hard. “Even countries friendly to Russia can throw this potential into the free market, which will lead to a significant collapse of the ruble”

- Delyagin warns

Exchange traders claim that a number of large domestic companies have already begun to urgently diversify investment investments.

“Many market players have increased the share of the euro in their portfolios, counting on the transfer of some part of payments to this currency. In August alone, $7.4 billion “flowed” from the three largest Russian banks, of which $5.9 billion fell to legal entities»

- reminds Korenev

In this regard, according to Alexander Kuptsikevich, reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on the dollar is a long-term strategy that will not significantly support the ruble exchange rate.

“On the contrary, such rhetoric will further increase pressure on Russia from the United States and accelerate the imposition of sanctions, which is negative for the Russian currency”

- the expert believes

This may mark the new presidential term of Vladimir Putin. At least, the head of state himself recently announced such intentions.

“I agree in principle. This is not just a breakaway from the dollar. It is about the need to increase our economic sovereignty, and this is absolutely right,” he said.

First of all, according to the president, it is worth paying attention to the sale of one of the main export goods of Russia - oil - for the American currency.

“Oil is traded in dollars on the stock exchange,” Putin explained. “And, of course, we think what needs to be done to free ourselves from this burden. And our partners, introducing all these restrictions, illegal restrictions, violating the principles of world trade, help us. Because the whole world sees that the dollar monopoly is unreliable, it is dangerous for many regions."

The head of state also recalled that Russia would continue to diversify its gold and foreign exchange reserves, definitely reducing the share of the US currency in them.

It is worth noting that the fight against the "monopoly of the dollar" has recently become almost universal "entertainment" in the world. More than others, countries such as Venezuela, whose relations with the United States are, to put it mildly, tense, have succeeded more than others.

China is playing a much more subtle and motivated game against the dollar and its status as a global currency. Unlike all the same Venezuela, whose actions against the dollar do not affect absolutely anything, the Celestial Empire has leverage on the dollar world. This is due to its own weight in the world economy, comparable to the weight of the United States in it.

The main goal of China in the game with the US dollar is to gain advantages in world trade. Recall that, despite numerous disagreements, China and the United States are the largest trading partners. And when it becomes difficult or even impossible for it to negotiate "in a partnership way", Beijing launches threats of devaluing the yuan (which, according to the United States, is overvalued), getting rid of American assets in its gold and foreign exchange reserves, and even transferring part of its foreign trade from dollar to yuan.

Some time ago, the Chinese government prepared an analysis of the national currency. The first part of the study looks at the effect of using the currency as a tool in trade negotiations with the US, and the second part looks at the effects of depreciating the yuan to offset the impact of a trade agreement that would restrict exports.

Can Russia use all these tools? Obviously not. As the largest trading partner of the United States, by playing with the rate of its own currency, China is able to beat out the market conditions it needs.

As for Russia, in view of the small volumes of Russian-American trade, such exercises are completely meaningless for her.

The sale of Russian oil (traditional dollar-denominated goods) for rubles does not matter much either. In this case, transaction costs will also be added to the price of the goods, which are inevitable when converting the currencies of the buyer countries into Russian rubles (through the dollar). Pretty soon, this will lead buyers to find other suppliers using less complex and expensive schemes.

No less useless is the sale of Russian oil and gas for rubles in the context that the Russian economy is critically dependent on imports. What is the point of selling one of the few competitive goods for your own currency, only to later convert it back into dollars for the purchase of imported goods and services.

Real monetary and financial sovereignty in the modern world is possible only for those countries that have the opportunity to offer a wide range of their own unique products that are in demand by the market. The main export commodities of Russia - oil, gas, metals and other raw materials - with rare exceptions are not unique. For this reason, decoupling Russian exports from the dollar (the oil market is exclusively in dollars) is impossible by definition.

Some exception to this rule may be the supply of goods under intergovernmental agreements (for example, Russian oil to China). However, in this case, the seller of the goods almost completely falls under the absolute dictates of the buyer, on which he is fully dependent.

Thus, the only way to get rid of the peg to the dollar and achieve financial sovereignty is to create in the country modern economy producing competitive goods and services.

Although the Russian authorities constantly say that they are working on plans to de-dollarize the economy and rid the largest industries of the US currency, it is unlikely that they have the opportunity to actually do this, writes the Financial Times.

Commenting on the plan to abandon settlements in US currency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that this problem is relevant not only for the Russian Federation, but also for other countries. “This is an issue that is on the agenda,” he said in September.

"It may be easier said than done," however, the British edition believes.

Russia is heavily dependent on the export of raw materials and energy - and in these markets the vast majority prefers the dollar. And the Kremlin is unlikely to persuade its Western partners to trade in the volatile Russian currency.

It is unlikely that the ruble will enjoy much success with Russia's eastern partners, primarily China and India.

Many Russian financiers and politicians constantly voice the dream that instead of the US dollar, the Chinese yuan will become the main reserve currency. Whether the People's Bank of China wants it, these dreamers do not ask it.

“The Americans will be just happy if Russia dumps all the dollar reserves it has, because this will lower the price of the “buck” and thereby spur exports from the United States. But the list of catastrophic consequences for Russia is so large that it makes no sense to voice it all, ”he told Reedus earlier, commenting on the“ first sign ”of the anti-dollar campaign - the September statement of VTB head A. Kostin.

Such initiatives show a complete lack of strategic long-term vision for those who put forward them, the expert continues.

“If Russia demands from buyers of the same oil not dollars, but another currency, they will most likely agree, but according to the principle “any whim for your money.” This means that all conversion costs and exchange rate risks will fall precisely on Russia, if the American dollar burns our hands so much that we are ready to suffer losses if only not to touch it,” Cherepanov predicts.

Almost all Russian exports and imports are carried out precisely for US dollars, and neither the euro, nor even the yuan can be compared with the volume of "dollar" trade. This could be done if import substitution in Russia reached 100%. But it is impossible to do this, and it is not necessary.

All talk and plans to undermine dominance US dollar therefore, should be discussed more by psychiatrists than financiers, the expert of the State Duma Committee on financial markets Artem Karapetyan (Jan Art).

“Why is it necessary to destroy everything, if this “everything” works perfectly, is convenient for everyone and fully performs the functions that are assigned to “this”? As a rule, after such questions, the initiators of financial global revolutions fall into a stupor and cannot give a clear answer to them,” he said.

If the initiators of abandoning the dollar believe that by doing so they will “punish” the United States, then they are terribly far from reality. It will probably be terribly painful for them to know that it was precisely this initiative - to ban settlements in dollars on the territory of the Russian Federation - that the Americans themselves put forward even before them.

In August 2018, U.S. senators in the bill "On protecting American security from the Kremlin's aggression" proposed blocking the possibility of dollar settlements for key participants banking system Russia.