The sequence of demographic analysis. Methodological principles of demographic analysis
QUESTIONS ON DEMOGRAPHY.
Subject, object and functions of demography in the system of social sciences.
Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process.
The need for close interaction of demography with other sciences is determined, on the one hand, by the fact that the reproduction of the population as a subject of demography is a complex phenomenon, the nature and dynamics of which are influenced by almost all aspects of people's lives, the whole set of social relations that people enter into in the course of their life activity. . For their part, the reproduction of the population, demographic processes, the nature and trends of changes in the demographic situation affect all other areas. public life, largely determining the course of economic, social, political, ethnic and other processes.
Demography as a complex science within itself was divided into whole line specialized industries and sciences. At the same time, the processes of internal differentiation of demography have different bases.
Demographic Meaning:
1. determine the place of the population in society and in nature
2. explain the changes taking place in it, predict their direction, impact on the development of society and nature
The practical significance of studying D. consists of a number of practical tasks:
1. Population accounting
2. compilation of labor balances
3. planning for the construction of institutions
4. migration forecasting, etc.
Demography tasks:
1. Study of trends and factors of demographic processes
2. Development of population projections
3. Development of demographic policy measures
The subject of demography: the reproduction of the population, i.e. the process of continuous renewal of its numbers and structure through the change of generations and through the processes of fertility and mortality.
The object of demography: the population is not only a set of people living in a certain territory, but a self-reproducing set of people, that is, the main features of the population, in addition to qualitative and territorial, is the ability to reproduce.
Demographic analysis methods.
Demographic analysis is the main method of processing information to obtain demographic indicators.
Research methods in demography:
1. Statistical methods consist in the fact that demographers study objectively existing relationships between statistical factors, using actual data for this. Statistical facts are aggregates of people and events grouped according to certain rules and homogeneous in some respects.
2. The use of mathematical methods is due to the fact that the processes of population reproduction are sometimes interconnected by quantitative relationships, so it becomes necessary to measure some characteristics according to data on others.
3. Sociological methods: the study of demographic behavior, that is, subjective attitudes, needs, plans and opinions of people
Types of analysis:
1. System analysis - development of specific practical advice when choosing the most effective solution on the basis of a full and comprehensive test of various options for action in terms of quantitative and qualitative comparison of the resources used with the effect that was obtained.
2. Balance:
allows you to choose the optimal ratio between the various structures of the demographic complex
used in the study of the sources of formation of the population of the territory, in the study of the dynamics of the marital status, in the study of migration flows
3. Systematization method: associated with the division of the studied demographic phenomena and selective criteria for the totality, characterized by a certain commonality and distinctive features
4. Method of economic and geographical research:
regional method (study of the ways of formation and development of the population of the territory)
sectoral method (labor resources in a geographical aspect, employment)
local method (population of the city, village)
5. Taxonization method: the process of dividing the territory into comparable hierarchical subordinate taxa (population by urbanization, density level)
6. Variable method of population distribution. It is used in the development of promising schemes for the distribution of the population across the territory. It is also envisaged to consider options for different levels of location of farms in certain regions, taking into account the provision of labor resources.
7. The method of economic and mathematical modeling: a large amount of material is being processed; allows you to choose the best solutions
8. Cartographic method: specific method
9. Sociological method: standardized interviews, surveys, questionnaires
Similar information.
Introduction
Analysis of the demographic situation, or otherwise - the state of population reproduction is one of the constituent aspects of demography as a science, namely, demography in practical terms.
In practical terms, the area of demographic research includes:
Description of the demographic situation;
Analysis of trends and factors of demographic processes in the country as a whole, in its separate territory or in population groups in different periods.
An analysis of the demographic situation of the region and the country as a whole makes it possible to identify positive and negative trends in the field of population change, factors influencing these changes, and thanks to this, take appropriate measures to improve or maintain the current demographic situation.
Currently, depopulation processes in the regions and in the country as a whole are so intense and prolonged that if adequate measures are not taken, then in the coming decades the population of Russia will decrease to dangerous limits, which can lead to serious social, economic and geopolitical problems. Most regions of the Russian Federation are characterized by a high level of natural population decline, but at the same time, each individual region has its own characteristics of the natural and migration movement of the population, which must be taken into account when implementing certain areas of demographic policy.
The demographic situation of any territory is determined by the ratio of three values:
birth and death rates,
Marriage (divorceability) and the state of the sex and age structure,
And migratory mobility.
The government of each region should analyze the possibilities for improving the demographic situation through each of these components. In this paper, such an analysis is carried out for the Republic of Mari El.
The changes that took place in the socio-economic development of Russia in the early 1990s largely determined the current demographic situation. An increase in mortality, a decrease in the birth rate, and a migration decline in the population led to depopulation in the Republic of Mari El. The deep crisis of the family institution, which is the root cause of demographic troubles and, to some extent, the difficult socio-economic situation, led to the development of negative demographic processes, expressed by the following trends.
Demographic Analysis
Population size.
Table 1. - Number of permanent population in the Republic of Mari El
In the last decade, the demographic processes taking place in our country have a pronounced negative character. The low birth rate, combined with high mortality, led to the effect of depopulation, expressed in the natural decline of the population in the vast majority of regions of the country and in Russia as a whole.
According to the annual Report of the United Nations Population Fund for 2005, the demographic crisis continues in Russia. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991. The death rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, the population is declining by several hundred thousand people annually.
A negative feature of Russia is the fact that, as a result of the demographic transition, the birth rate has fallen to the level of developed countries, while the death rate has remained at the level of developing countries.
According to some demographers, the decline in mortality as a result of health development has been offset since the 1960s. an increase in alcohol mortality.
Other demographers believe that high mortality is associated with the incompleteness of the modernization processes in Russia, including the socio-cultural aspect. In particular, taking care of one's own health is not a high value within the mentality of a significant part of the population, which predetermines high alcohol consumption, deaths from accidents (including traffic accidents), an abnormal prevalence of a number of diseases, etc. .
For the period 1990-2005. the natural decline in the population of Russia amounted to 5.9% (11.2 million people). In the Republic of Mari El for the same period - 5.8% (43.8 thousand people). According to the 2002 census, 73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural residents, in the republic this ratio is somewhat different: 63% and 37%, respectively (Table 1).
According to available estimates, by 2050 the population of Russia will be from 83 to 115 million people. In particular, in the medium-term program of social economic development, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, states that if the current migration rates are maintained, by 2025 the number of Russians will decrease to approximately 120 million, and by 2050 to 100 million people. UN forecast - 115 million people, forecast of the Institute for Social and Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences - 83 million people. .
Table 2.- Share of individual age groups in the total urban and rural population in the Republic of Mari El, %
|
Population under working age |
Working age population |
Population over working age |
|||||||
|
Total in the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
Total in the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
Total in the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
|
Of the two types of demographic aging: aging from below, which is a natural result of a decline in fertility, and aging from above, as a consequence of an increase in life expectancy, Russia, like Mari El, certainly belongs to the first.
At present, the share of people aged 65 and over in the population of Russia is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if specific gravity of this age exceeds 7%. The rural population is characterized by a more intensive pace in the “all-Russian aging”. The difference in the proportion of the elderly among the rural and urban population in 2005 was expressed in the following figures: 22.6% - in countryside against 19.8% - in the urban environment. In the Republic of Mari El, for the same period, there was a difference of 0.7% in the proportion towards the elderly population (Table 2).
According to the forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2016, older people over 60 years old will already make up 20% of the total number of Russians, and children under 15 years old will make up only 17%. The aging of the population in the near future may adversely affect the development of the country's economy. If from 1995 to 2005, due to a decrease in life expectancy and, in particular, the birth rate, the load per one able-bodied person in Mari El decreased from 0.78 to 0.55 dependents (0.77 to 0.58 in Russia), then after 2007 the year it will begin to increase and by 2020 will return to the level of 1995. A situation in which there is one dependent per worker is expected only after 2045-2050.
Table 3. Number of men and women in the Republic of Mari El, pers.
Table 3 shows a significant excess in the number of women compared to the number of men, which is characteristic both for the population of Russia and for the population of the Republic of Mari El. The share of women in the population of the republic averages 53.3% (53.4% of women in the entire population of Russia) .
Birth and death rates. Birth rate in demographics - central problem. In modern conditions of relatively low mortality, the reproduction of the population as a whole is determined solely by the level and dynamics of the birth rate. Fertility is the frequency of births in a particular social environment, constituting a generation, or a set of generations. Birth rate, interacting with mortality, forms the reproduction of the population.
Since the second half of the 20th century, Russia has experienced a steady decline in the birth rate. Intra-family regulation of childbearing is becoming widespread, becoming an integral part of people's lifestyle and becoming the main factor determining the level of fertility. The beginning of this process falls on the post-war years and continues today, and since the beginning of the 90s, sharp shifts in the political and socio-economic life of the country have also influenced the birth rate.
Table 4.- Fertility, mortality and natural increase in the Republic of Mari El
|
Total, person |
Per 1000 population |
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|
born |
born |
natural increase, decrease (-) |
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|
All population |
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|
Urban population |
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|
Rural population |
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The birth rate of the Republic of Mari El is very low, while the death rate is very high, which allows us to say that there is a demographic decline in the republic (Table 4), and this situation is observed among both the urban and rural population, which is the first turn is a consequence of the poor security of families aged 19 to 40 years, poor housing conditions and the general standard of living. That is why the number one task of the demographic policy of the Republic of Mari El is the rejuvenation of the population.
Table 5 - Life expectancy at birth in the Republic of Mari El, number of years
The average life expectancy in Mari El is 63 years. At the same time, for women, it averages 71 years, for men - 56 years (Table 5), which is lower than the national average (65; 72 and 58 years). The main reason for the shortening of life expectancy is high mortality population of working age (in 2005, 4,432 people of working age died - this is 36% of the total number of deaths, in the Russian Federation - 30 percent).
Table 6. - Age-specific fertility rates in the Republic of Mari El
|
Annual average births per 1,000 women aged, years |
total fertility rate |
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The total fertility rate (TFR), which represents the number of children born on average by one woman, has been at the level of 1.34-1.35 in the republic for the last two years (as well as in Russia as a whole). To ensure simple reproduction, the value of this coefficient should be at least 2.1. With today's indicators, the Russian birth rate is abnormally low, even against the background of problematic, demographically, European countries. Of greatest concern is the unfortunate fact that the alarmingly low birth rate of Russians is likely to continue to decline. The results of sociological studies indicate a further decrease in the reproductive attitudes of future parents, which fully allows for a drop in the birth rate to TFR values of 0.6–0.8 in the next decade.
An aggravating factor in the demographic tragedy is the unprecedentedly high extramarital birth rate (30% of the total number of births), which is a consequence of the widespread prevalence of unregistered cohabitation.
The shift in the birth rate to later ages also testifies to the change in value orientations towards raising a family. This trend is clearly displayed in Table 6, which shows a gradual increase in the number of children born to women aged 25-29 years. In the short term, late motherhood may become the childbearing norm, which will complicate severe demographic situation in the republic and Russia as a whole.
Table 7. - Mortality rate from individual causes of death in the Republic of Mari El
Up to 80% of deaths in Mari El are due to cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, infectious diseases, alcohol poisoning and injuries. A special place in the republican structure of mortality is occupied by unnatural causes. In 2005 alone, about 593 people became victims of alcohol poisoning, 245 died from homicides, and 463 people died from suicide.
The high mortality of men reaches its maximum in the age groups from 44 to 59 years - a period that is considered to be the heyday. Of particular concern is the growth rate of mortality in cases of acute poisoning of chemical etiology, including alcohol and its surrogates. In 2003, 359 people died from alcohol poisoning and its surrogates in the republic, in 2004 the number of deaths increased to 512 people, in 2005 the number of poisonings was 975, of which 593 were fatal.
For 2002-2005 the proportion of alcohol intoxications in the overall structure of acute intoxications in the whole country increased from 18.7% to 50%. The current situation is confirmed by the data of state supervision over the circulation of alcoholic and alcohol-containing products.
Table 8. - Infant mortality by main causes of death in the Republic of Mari El
|
Indicators |
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|
Number of children who died under the age of 1 year |
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|
Total deaths from all causes |
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|
including from: |
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|
respiratory diseases |
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|
diseases of the digestive system |
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|
congenital anomalies |
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|
conditions arising in the perinatal period |
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|
accidents, poisoning and injury |
Despite the fact that the proportion of infant mortality in the overall structure of mortality is less than one percent, doctors pay close attention to it, since this indicator is largely manageable.
Infant mortality in Mari El for the period from 1990 to 2005 has decreased by almost three times.
Table 9. - Marriages and divorces in the Republic of Mari El
|
divorces |
||
Statistical data convincingly show a consistent reduction in the number of marriages. For 1990--2005 their absolute number in Mari El decreased by 29% (by 32% in Russia) and at the same time there is an increase in the number of divorces.
A sharply negative role in the demographic development of the republic and Russia continues to play an increase in the number of extramarital cohabitations. The so-called "civil marriages" in Mari El, according to the most conservative estimates, there are about 70 thousand (about 3 million in Russia). The demographic effect of this phenomenon is easy to assess, given that the birth rate in unregistered unions is two times lower than in legitimate marriages.
The purpose of the lecture: acquaintance with the basic principles of applying the system of methods for studying the reproduction of the population.
1. The content of demographic analysis as a methodological basis of demographic science.
2. Basic methods of demographic analysis.
The content of demographic analysis as a methodological basis of demographic science
Demographic analysis should be considered as an integral central element in the study of population reproduction, associated with the development of principles for the application of static, mathematical, sociological and other methods. It does not come down, as is often understood, to a simple systematization of formally quantitative methods used to study demographic patterns. It is designed to form a special "demographic" view of the population and the factors that determine its dynamics, through the prism of methods of analysis and modeling of reality. In this sense, demographic analysis is a link between the theoretical and empirical levels in the study of the population.
As research tools were built up and demographic analysis became an independent theoretical and methodological basis for studying the population by formal methods, the process of creating its own “mathematized” concept of population reproduction took place. Without going into the details of the chronology, we will form the main historical milestones:
1. From the construction of the first mathematically justified tables of mortality - survival (L. Euler) to the formation of the principles of the so-called cross-sectional demographic analysis (“conditional generation method”) with its inherent branched system of general and special coefficients, which were completed in the development of the “stable population” model " And integral indicators population reproduction.
2. Development of the principles of "longitudinal" demographic analysis ("method of real generation") for assessing long-term trends, reconstruction of past dynamics and forecasts of individual demographic processes, contributing to the beginning of an active study of demographic behavior by methods of selective sociological surveys.
3. Development of demographic forecasting and methods for indirect estimation of demographic variables based on a rigorous mathematical theory of a stable population, population models for special cases of instability of reproduction regime parameters, as well as special models for fertility, mortality and marriage.
4. Development of the principles of "multi-regional" and "multi-status" demographic tables, construction of generalized models of the population "open" for migration with a variable reproduction regime in terms of conditional and real generations.
5. Development of methods and attempts practical application models for the purpose of "longitudinal - transverse" demographic analysis.
The logic of the development of the theory and practice of demographic analysis can be characterized as follows: the transition from random borrowing and adaptation of statistical, mathematical and other methods to targeted development proper demographic tools based on their own language and conceptual apparatus; the transition from theoretical constructs and models that describe special cases of interrelations of demographic variables to generalized ideas and models of population reproduction and models of population reproduction and its processes.
The development of the theory of demographic analysis has always been associated with the tasks of studying demographic reality at various stages of its evolution and the need to generalize empirically observed patterns.
The emergence of new methods and solutions in demographic analysis, on the one hand, is always the influence of time and the pressing problems of studying a changing demographic reality. On the other hand, demographic analysis, without neglecting conscious borrowings and analogies from other sciences, increasingly relies on its own methodological developments and conceptual constructions.
Basic methods of demographic analysis
Demographic tables - theoretical models, describing the life of a cohort as a sequence of transitions between two or more distinct states, not necessarily demographic. This can be social, legal or economic status, such as marital status (married, widowed, divorced, never married), region of residence, citizenship, income level, etc. The demographic table differs from the general mobility model by the presence of a fundamental demographic variable (gender, age, number of children born) as an argument of the model.
The specificity of the demographic table as a method of demography is determined not by its interpretation in terms of studying the population and not even by the specifics of its application to the description of demographic phenomena and relationships with other demographic models, but primarily by the general direction of its formal (mathematical) study, as well as by the type of data and construction procedures, on which it is based.
The meaning of the method is to analyze phenomena according to demographically native groups (actually observed or hypothetical), i.e. groups that are homogeneous in terms. The method of demographic tables has clear limits of application and can be applied to the analysis of only relatively simple objects. First, the cohort described by the demographic table must be closed, that is, it must not allow transitions from external states or population groups that are not described by the table. Secondly, population transitions between the states described by the tables should not depend on any other factors, except for the fact of being in a given state and the value of the variable - argument. This premise can be understood as a prerequisite for the homogeneity of the population in relation to the process under study. Thirdly, one should not strive to use a demographic table complex type if the problem can be solved with a simpler design.
Statistical methods. In demography, the scope of statistical methods is very extensive. It covers the process of observing and obtaining information about the population and individual demographic processes, processing data and constructing distribution series, analyzing demographic patterns and relationships, and calculating summary indicators of population reproduction.
The collection and evaluation of initial information is the first stage of any statistical observation. Information for the purposes of demographic analysis is based on data from three main sources: population censuses, current records, and sample demographic surveys.
The variety of numerical data obtained as a result of statistical observation requires appropriate processing and analysis. To do this, distribution series are constructed, which represent statistical aggregates ordered according to the corresponding characteristics at any moment or period of time. In demography, there are three types of such series:
The distribution of the population itself according to individual characteristics (by sex, age, occupation, education, etc.); distribution of population aggregates (families or settlement types by size, age, etc.); distribution of demographic events (number of births by order, age of the mother, deaths by causes, marriage rate, duration of marriage).
The frequency of distribution of one or another demographic event in a certain environment characterizes its intensity and is measured by various coefficients. They represent the ratio of the number of events to the population in which they occurred, or to the size of its particular group. Depending on the number of events these numbers correspond to, there are general, special and private coefficients. Total coefficients are also used, which are the sum of age (i.e. private) coefficients, for example, the total fertility rate. Sometimes in the analysis there are coefficients for comparing opposite processes, showing how many times the intensity of one is greater than the intensity of the other, for example, how many marriages per divorce (marriage stability coefficient).
Mathematical models are formal representations of the dependence of some demographic variable on the age or number of children born. The model can be represented as an explicit mathematical function, including or not a tabulated dependence, or as a computational procedure. The dependent variable, as a rule, is the age coefficient or a measure of the intensity of a process, such as mortality, fertility, migration, but it can also be any of its derived indicators - most often the variable of the corresponding demographic table.
In practice, currently used model dependencies are grouped into four classes. The model curve is an explicit function of the model argument, the parameters of which are to be estimated. It generally does not use tabular dependencies. If the form of the function is given, then one speaks of a parametric, otherwise, a nonparametric model curve. The empirical, or numerical, model represents the demographic variable as a function of tabulated dependencies without explicitly using an argument. The model table is an empirical model, the number of parameters of which is small, and all of them have a clear demographic interpretation, not limited by the framework of this model. The relational model is an empirical model special kind. It uses a single tabulated dependency that describes the same variable as the model as a whole. The result is obtained as a transformation of tabulated values. The form of this transformation is given, and the parameters are to be evaluated.
Each of the classes has advantages and limitations in applying to a particular task of demographic research. Each individual model, on the other hand, can be more or less justified both by experience of practical application to a population with given demographic characteristics, and by theoretical considerations.
Sociological methods of collecting, processing and analyzing data on socio-demographic facts help to establish and explain the causal relationships between population reproduction and social behavior.
An exceptionally important work is the preparation of a research program. The methodological basis of the program is usually: 1) definition of the problem, tasks and object and research; 2) clarification of the basic concepts and their empirical interpretation; 3) preliminary system analysis of the subject of research; 4) promotion and concretization of the main hypotheses.
The methodological (procedural) section of the program includes the main procedures for collecting and processing data (research methods and techniques) and methods for analyzing data on hypotheses.
The methods of specific social research are the method of establishing specific social facts and the method of obtaining primary information, its analysis and processing. The main methods of recording events include: the study of documents, observation, survey - interviews, questionnaires, tests, experiment. Techniques are a set of special techniques for effective use one method or another. These include: 1) methods for monitoring information for reliability (validity, stability, accuracy), 2) methods for measuring the qualitative characteristics of the phenomena under study (scaling), 3) various statistical methods.
The use of sociological research methods in demography is aimed at obtaining reliable information about various aspects of demographic behavior.
Cartographic methods are important ways cognition of the population, the features of which are the study of the spatial aspect of the population and its reproduction, which is achieved by the construction and study of geographical maps - special figurative and symbolic spatial models. Geographic maps are reduced images on the plane of the earth's surface and the phenomena located on it. They have different meanings, territorial experience, content and ways of depicting phenomena.
To study the population, two kinds of maps are used and created. These are general geographical (topographic, etc.) maps that display the territory with various geographical objects located on it.
Specially designed maps are created to display and study the population. They are called thematic maps of the population, which is the main content of their image. Topographic elements are stored on the map only in the composition and volume necessary to characterize the spatial properties and relations of the population.
The whole variety of population mapping is made up of four main areas: 1) the geographical proper, which combines population distribution maps and settlement maps; 2) demographic characterizing the state and reproduction of the population (its composition by sex and age, marital status, migration, natural movement, etc.); 3) ethnological (ethnic composition and settlement, way of life, elements of material and spiritual culture, etc.); 4) socio-economic (social composition of the population, employment, standard of living, etc.); 5) ecological, designed to reveal the relationship of the population with the environment.
The main methods of cartographic representation of the population. The first in terms of geographical specificity and detail in relation to population mapping is the method of localized icons. Its essence is to show the population and settlements in specific places (points) of their location by one sign or another. Such icons can carry a variety of information about the population (population of settlements), about its dynamics, about the structure of the population nationality etc., other demographic indicators.
The next most common in mapping is the method of areas. It provides for showing the distribution of the population, its activities and other things within specific geographical limits - in connection with the nature of settlement, economic and other use of the territory. This method is associated with the localization of the population in the squares. The boundaries of the distribution areas of the population are determined primarily by the very network of settlements, not only permanent, but also temporary and seasonally inhabited. The nature of the use of the territory is taken into account - land, fishing, etc.
The cartogram method is built on the basis of one or another grid of territorial division (political, administrative or economic), in the cells of which indicators of the intensity of the phenomenon are “embedded”. Colors, their saturation or shading of different densities are used as visual means. This method is most common on maps that display demographic and social economic characteristics of the population, since the initial information, as a rule, is provided by units of territorial division.
Abroad, the dot method of depicting the population is widespread. It is usually associated with dispersed forms of accommodation that are characteristic of the rural, especially for the farming (farm) and nomadic population. The essence of the method is to display the location and sometimes some other characteristics (for example, nationality) by a set of points, or rather, small figures (circles), each of which corresponds to a given population, called the "weight" of the point.
In a number of areas of population mapping, the method of qualitative background is used. Its essence lies in the subdivision of the territory into sections with homogeneous qualitative indicators. Examples are many ethnographic maps, maps of types of zoning of the territory according to one or another sign of population and settlement.
By analogy with the qualitative one, there is also a method of quantitative background - dividing the territory into sections according to differences in quantitative indicators. But in a particular work, this method can be very close to others, for example, to the method of areas or cartograms, and it is difficult to distinguish from them.
The way signs of movement are associated with the spatial dynamics of the population and appear on maps in the form of symbols, mostly linear (arrows, stripes of different widths, structures or patterns) and symbolizing the movement of the population from one place to another.
Thus, the correctness of population maps and, accordingly, the effectiveness of using the cartographic method in studying the population depends on a clear understanding (and distinction) of the methods of cartographic representation.
Questions for self-control.
1. Place and role of demographic analysis in demographic science.
2. What are the limits of application of the method of demographic tables?
3. What is measured by coefficients in demography?
4. What classes are model dependencies combined into?
5. What demographic processes make it possible to study sociological methods?
6. Determine the main directions of population mapping.
7. Describe the main methods of population mapping used in modern demographic science.
According to the calculations of the State Statistics Committee, the actual population of Russia at the beginning of 2001 amounted to 145,184.8 thousand people and decreased in 2000 by 740.1 thousand. Thus, in 2001, the decline in the population of Russia somewhat decreased, which happened due to an increase in migration growth by 59 thousand people, while the natural increase decreased, but only by 30.7 thousand.
Table. 9
|
Population at the beginning of the year |
General gain |
Average annual growth rate, ppm |
natural growth |
Migration growth |
Population at the end of the year |
|
The country's population began to decrease in 1992. For 9 years from 1992 to 2002, it decreased by 3519.5 thousand people, including in 2002 - by 740.1 thousand people. Due to its internal conditionality, the trend of population decline is quite stable.
The age structure of the population plays an active role in demographic processes.
The age structure accumulates and stores a stock of demographic inertia, the potential for population growth, due to which the population movement continues for a long time after the driving forces of this movement have already dried up or changed their direction to the opposite. Therefore, the influence of the age structure is always taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes.
Throughout the twentieth century. Russia's population is declining for the fourth time. But unlike the first three periods - the First World War and the Civil War, the famine and repressions of the 30s, the Second World War - when the population decline was due to non-demographic factors, in the 90s it was predetermined by the very course of demographic development. It was predicted by demographers at the end of the outgoing century. The system-wide crisis that unfolded during the transition period only accelerated and aggravated the realization of long-standing forecasts. Although the population decline is not yet as great and catastrophic as in the previous three periods, this trend, due to its internal conditionality, is stable and, most likely, will continue in the short term.
The general trend in the change in the age structure of the population of all countries as the birth rate declines and life expectancy rises is a steady increase in the proportion of the population of older ages in the age structure. This process is called demographic aging of the population.
The decline in population occurred mainly due to natural decline, i.e. excess of the number of deaths over the number of births (about 7 million people in 1992-2000), as well as due to emigration to " far abroad"(about 850 thousand people). However, the actual reduction in the population was almost three times less due to the rather significant migration influx of the population from the CIS and Baltic countries.
The natural decline in the population of Russia is due to the mode of population reproduction with low levels of mortality and fertility, which developed in Russia by the 1960s and which even earlier became characteristic of most developed countries. For some time, the natural increase still remained relatively high - mainly due to the favorable age structure of the population, in which some potential for demographic growth was "accumulated". But as this potential was exhausted, natural growth began to decline.
Nevertheless, up until the 1990s, it was the determining component of Russia's population growth. For a long time, it even combined with the migration outflow from Russia, more than covering this decline. Beginning in 1975, population growth was already due to both natural growth and migration inflow from the Union republics, which, as a rule, did not exceed 1/4 of the total increase. But then the role of the migration component changed dramatically - at first, its contribution to population growth simply increased, and since 1992, when the natural population decline began, migration has remained the only source of population growth. However, even the volumes of net migration that increased after the collapse of the USSR could not cover the natural decline of Russians; in recent years, net migration has also been declining.
Let's consider graphically how the migration growth of the population compensates for the natural decline since 1992:
Table 10
Migration growth of the country's population in January-August 2002 only 5.1% compensated for the natural decline. (In 2000, the natural population decline was offset by 21.6% by the increased migration growth of the country's population, in 1999 by 16.7%). This is the lowest figure for the entire period of population decline since 1992. to 2001. This ratio, despite the decrease in natural loss, was the result of a significant (in comparison with January-August 2000) reduction in migration growth.
Since 1992, the death rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate, and depopulation began, that is, a decrease in the number of the indigenous population. Its occurrence occurred abruptly, according to an epidemic type.
The natural decline in the population was the largest in 1994, then, on the whole, its level was quite stable - 0.5-0.6% per year until 1999. Fluctuations in migration growth were more significant, and they caused fluctuations in the overall population decline. In 1999 society reacted to the August financial crisis a sharp rise in mortality.
Dynamics of demographic indicators in Russia (per 1000 people):
|
fertility |
Mortality |
Natural. growth |
total fertility |
|
The maximum rate of decline in the birth rate occurred in 1987-1993. During this time, the number of new residents born annually has almost halved. If in 1986 there were 17.2 per 1000 of the population, then in 1993 - 9.2, and in 2000 - 8.8 ppm (Table 5). As a result, Russia has lost more than 12 million citizens unborn. The decline in childbearing activity was observed in women of all reproductive ages.
The total fertility rate, i.e., the number of children per woman aged 15–49, fell critically from 2.2 in 1986–1987 to to 1.2 in 2000
The decrease in the birth rate by almost 30% over six years occurred for two main reasons: a) - in the early 1990s, the number of women of childbearing age, which became "children of war children" decreased; b) - today two-thirds of families refuse to have children for material reasons, postponing their appearance (and thereby changing the "timing" of births) or generally preferring childlessness. For 10 years (1987-1997), the absolute number of births has almost halved: from 2.5 to 1.26 million per year.
The decline in the birth rate is becoming extremely dangerous for Russia. First, the internal potential of demographic reproduction has been exhausted. After all, to replace generations of parents, you need a birth rate, measured by a total fertility rate of at least 2.1, and today it is only 1.26. Secondly, the population and labor force are aging, people's health is declining, the one-child family is becoming dominant.
However, the main factor of natural decline is the exorbitant increase in mortality. Over the past six years, the crude mortality rate has increased by more than 20% (from 11.4% in 1991 to 14.2% in 2002). It became the highest in Europe. The inertial causes of the increase in mortality are very insignificant, and this is evidenced by the dynamics of age-specific mortality rates. It shows that, contrary to natural processes, more young people die today than old ones. Thus, over the period from 1991 to 2002, the crude mortality rate did not increase for groups under the age of 15 years; in the elderly, its growth was 1.1, and in working age it reached 1.4. Moreover, among young people (20–25 years old) and among the most effective working ages (45–49 years old), mortality increased by 1.5 times.
These shifts are largely associated with the exacerbation of the "external causes" of mortality (accidents, poisoning, injuries, murders and suicides). Over the past 30 years, this figure has increased 30 times.
Thus, today the following features are characteristic of mortality in Russia:
- supermortality of men. In 2002, their life expectancy was 59.6 years (in 1994 - 57.6 years, in 1995 - 58.3 years), which is 13.1 years less than that of women, and 3.9 years less than in 1991. 1997 - 60.8 years for men, 72.9 years for women.
- · a drop in the average life expectancy of men aged 35 years and older: in the countryside it is lower than it was 100 years ago, in the city it is lower than 40 years ago;
- · increased growth rates of mortality in working age, as a result of which we are intensively losing labor potential. To a greater extent, the able-bodied part of the population is dying out, which contradicts biological laws;
- Extremely high compared to others developed countries infant mortality. Starting from 1990, this indicator increased: in 1991 it reached 17.4%, in 1992 - 18.0%, in 1993 - almost 20%. Then it began to slowly decline, amounting to 16.9% in 2002
- 1. The death rate of Russians is growing, and its level has significantly exceeded the indicators of developed countries
- 2. The greatest increase in mortality occurred not in the older, but in the middle, most able-bodied age groups. This leads to a generational gap and the degradation of the social structure of society.
- 3. The birth rate is not declining in an evolutionary way, but in the form of an epidemic, suddenly changing the previous trajectory of the rise. The total fertility rate turned out to be less than the Western European and American indicators. The growing predominance of mortality over fertility has led to an intensive extinction of the population, which does not correspond to the concept of the norm of human development.
- 4. The gap between the life expectancy of men and women has worsened, because of which Russian women were doomed to 10-15 years of widowhood.
Introduction
As the largest city in Russia and all of Europe, Moscow faces the same demographic challenges as most metropolitan areas: high density population, low birth rate, population increase due to migration inflow. According to Mosgorstat, as of January 1, 2014, the number of permanent residents of the Russian capital exceeded 12.1 million people, while the share of the rural population was only 1%.
Annual population growth due to migration from other regions of Russia and foreign countries remains high despite the decline in the crisis year of 2014. Nevertheless, it is not easy for the capital to cope with such a rate of influx of population, an increase in its density, and, consequently, a decrease in the quality of life. This is evidenced by the decrease in the proportion of the city's indigenous inhabitants, the aging of the population, the decline in the birth rate, the increase in the average age at which a child is born, and other adverse consequences.
The programs carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation aimed at increasing the population have also had a positive impact on the central region: since 2011, there has been an increase in natural population growth, an increase in life expectancy.
The purpose of this work is to study the demographic situation in Moscow. To achieve the goal, the author set himself the following tasks:
- assess fertility and marital stability;
- study the statistics of mortality and life expectancy of the population;
- assess migration processes in Moscow;
- offer possible ways improving the demographic situation in the capital.
The work is structured as follows. The first chapter presents the main statistical data characterizing the current demographic situation in Moscow and identifying problematic aspects. The first paragraph of the first chapter describes the natural demographic processes, namely: birth rate, death rate and life expectancy. The second paragraph is devoted to the characteristics of migration processes in the metropolis. The second chapter proposes possible measures to improve the described demographic situation and solve the identified problems. D In conclusion, conclusions are presented about the demographic processes taking place in the capital and the proposed actions of the Government of the Russian Federation to solve these problems.
Chapter 1. Current demographic situation in Moscow
1.1. natural processes
Fertility is one of the most significant demographic processes that determine demographic dynamics, namely, the rate of population reproduction.
For many years, Moscow, as a region of Central Russia, has been characterized by a low birth rate compared to the average Russian values (11.3 births per 1,000 population versus 13.3 average Russian in 2012). However, after a significant decline in the birth rate in the 1990s and reaching a minimum in 1999, its rates began to grow steadily. Since 2011, the capital has been experiencing a positive natural population growth associated with a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. The first fact is largely due to the implementation in 2006 and 2007 of the programs of the Government of the Russian Federation aimed at supporting the birth rate and strengthening the institution of the family; the second is an increase in life expectancy. Charts 1 and 2 show the dynamics of these indicators for Moscow and Russia (see Appendix 1).
It should be noted that despite the general increase in the birth rate in Moscow and other cities of the Russian Federation, in the capital after 2009 there was no slowdown in the birth rate, which is typical for other cities. Thus, we can talk about maintaining consistently high birth rates relative to other regions.
Another characteristic of the metropolitan area is the ambiguity in the estimation of the number of births. The fact is that the children of nonresident mothers who were born are taken into account, but the women in labor, in relation to whom this statistical indicator is calculated, are not. As a result, birth rates are inflated.
The values of the age-specific fertility rate for Moscow are also specific. It represents the number of births per woman in a certain age group (each group is equal to four years) and reflects the sex and age composition of women of reproductive age.
For Muscovites, as for most other residents of Russian cities in 2004-2010, a decrease in the number of children born to young women (15-24 years old) and an increase in the age-specific fertility rate for women aged 25-49 years is characteristic. Moreover, in this age group, a clear maximum of the coefficient is observed (see Chart 3, Appendix 2).
The peculiarity of Moscow is that, despite the lower average values of birth rates, for the age group of 35-44 years they are higher than the national average. That is, over the years, postponing births has become more and more typical for Moscow. According to V.N. Arkhangelsk , this phenomenon can lead to a reduction in the birth rate in general. There are several reasons for this:
- a decrease in the likelihood of giving birth due to a reduction in the reproductive period;
- the use of abortion as a way to get rid of untimely pregnancy, which can lead to the inability to give birth;
- deterioration of health with age, especially among residents of megacities, more exposed to stress and adverse environmental conditions;
- a decrease in the desire to have a child in women who are accustomed to living independently, for whom a certain standard of living has already been formed;
- derogation in society of the importance of the institution of a full-fledged family as a result of postponing childbirth, which may adversely affect the birth rate in the future.
At the same time, a certain (this time positive) contribution to the increase in the average age of women in childbirth was made by federal family assistance programs that provide additional subsidies for the birth of a second and subsequent children. Despite the fact that Moscow does not collect data on those born by birth order, the positive impact federal programs may indicate an increase in age-specific fertility rates in groups older than 25 years (which are characterized by the birth of more than the first child).
Positive trends are also manifested in mortality rates and life expectancy for Muscovites. Since 1994, life expectancy for residents of the capital has been on the rise. (See Table 1, Appendix 3) In addition, this indicator remained unchanged for men and slightly increased for women, even with a significant reduction for the rest of Russians in the early 2000s.
At the same time, still low birth rates, a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy lead to an increase in the average age of citizens, a reduction in the share of the working population (in 2010-2013, the share of the able-bodied population decreased by 1.5%) and, most importantly, his aging. The share of Muscovites aged 65 years and older is higher than the national average (12.9%). Graph 5 (see Appendix 4) shows that the percentage of older people in the metropolis continues to grow.
Based on the data in the table, an unpleasant conclusion can be drawn: the burden on the working population from children is lower than in Russia, and for the elderly this figure is higher. Moreover, the burden on the part of the latter since 2003 tends to increase, which leads to such negative consequences as an increased burden on the budget, an increase in payments of transfers and the provision of medical services, and a reduction in the labor force.
1.2. Migration processes
Economic interests have been and remain one of the main reasons for migration. High economic potential, Moscow is the largest center of influx of migrants in Russia. Thanks to this fact, the population of Moscow is growing at a high rate, despite the low birth rate and negative natural growth until 2011. Thus, with zero and negative growth rates, the population of Moscow on average increases by 1 million people every ten years for a century.
It is obvious that such population growth is ensured by the influx of migrants. Moreover, the share of foreign immigrants accounts for 10% of all arrivals in the capital. Only a third of them are labor migrants. Therefore, a decrease in the influx of workers from abroad, due to an increase in the cost of a patent for work and a depreciation of the ruble, can hardly significantly affect the total migration growth of the population of Moscow.
Census data from 1989-2010 show that in 2010 every second resident of the capital (aged 25-30 years) did not live in it in 1989. The high density and high rates of increase in the number of residents of the capital lead to the emergence of social problems and the growing discontent of the indigenous population. A significant role in the formation of a negative attitude is played by the multinationality of our country and the formation of the multi-ethnicity of the capital over the decades, as migrants from foreign countries and republics of our state have been influx. According to the 2002 census, after Russians, the majority of Moscow's population are Ukrainians, Tatars, or Armenians. In addition, representatives of 12 nationalities are present in the city in the amount of 10 to 100 thousand people. In total, representatives of 168 nationalities live in the capital.
An urgent problem for Russia is the statistical accounting of migrants. Thus, some unofficial sources say that the number of foreign migrants in Moscow reaches two million, while the FMS data for 2013 totals only one million. The bulk of illegal migrants are labor. In this regard, special attention will be paid to the labor migration of foreign citizens.
The flow of temporary, and with it illegal labor migration is constantly increasing. It turns out that illegal workers take jobs, use the public and medical (childbirth, for example) benefits of the capital, but do not pay taxes in the state budget. In addition, migration is one of the three problems affecting the increase in crime. So, according to Moscow Prosecutor Sergei Kudeneev, in 2012 migrants committed every sixth crime in the metropolis, every third crime related to robbery and robbery.
The author is sure that government agencies and the media often deliberately focus on the crimes committed by migrants in order to divert attention from more important social problems. But there is some truth in these facts. Illegal migration is a potential environment for the growth of corruption, provoking interethnic conflicts, worsening the epidemiological and criminal situation in the metropolis. The fact is that a significant part of immigrants in Russia are uneducated people, the crime rate among which is higher. Ignorance of the laws of the host country and national peculiarities play their role (the kidnapping of underage brides, unacceptable in Russia, for example).
Uneducated migrants are of little economic benefit to Russia. If a migrant has received at least one course of higher education, not to mention the knowledge of the Russian language, his potential usefulness for the metropolis increases significantly. And uneducated illegal migrants can cause real harm to well-being. Dumping can also be added to the above problems. wages in the sector of unskilled workers, an increase in the burden on social infrastructure city, not compensated from the funds federal budget (medical services, education, police control, fire services and much more), unhealthy competition in some market segments (illegal trade).
The main flow of migrants to Moscow comes from Uzbekistan (17.5% of all arrivals), Tajikistan (12.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (11.5%). Labor migration is becoming more distant culturally. Gradually formed enclaves - migratory areas. Mutual hostility arises between migrants and the population. Thus, a survey in the Demoscopeweekly magazine suggests that Muscovites are most afraid of bandits and migrants, and migrants are afraid of the police, skinheads and Muscovites.
But despite the existing problems, it is impossible to stop the influx of both Russian and foreign migrants. Migrants are a labor force, including a skilled one. A survey in one of the articles in the Demoskom magazine shows that a third of Muscovites have used the services of foreign migrants in their households for three years. The use of migrant labor in households allows qualified Muscovites not to leave the labor market, but to shift care of the elderly, construction work, cleaning of living quarters, and much more onto migrants. One cannot deny the fact that due to the influx of foreign migrants, the costs of construction work and the improvement of the city's infrastructure have decreased.
Chapter 2. Possible measures to improve the demographic situation in Moscow
Despite the positive population growth in recent years and the decline in mortality, the birth rate still remains at a critically low level. Government programs to increase the birth rate cannot be carried out forever, especially in the current situation, when the state has to save budget funds. In addition, even the number of children desired by families (less than two for all age groups of women in childbirth) is not enough for a stable increase in the number of the indigenous population of the capital and a change in demographic dynamics. In this case, it is important to influence not only economic, but also psychological aspects. Competent agitation and promotion of the cult of the family and childbearing are needed to provoke among the population the desire to give birth more. It is necessary to change the values of society in such a way that a large number of children brought up by families become a source of pride.
It is also important to support low-income families with a large potential number of births, but little material resources for this. We are talking about visitors who have been living in Moscow for a long period of time (10 years, for example), but still have not had time to settle down. As mentioned above, visitors usually give birth to more children. Among the possible measures that could have a positive effect are loans for the purchase of housing with special repayment options subject to the birth of children, the extension of paid leave in the amount of the minimum subsistence level, or the opening of kindergartens with preferential terms payment.
The problem of increasing the average age of women in childbirth deserves special attention. Of course, this trend is understandable: Muscovites prefer to get an education, arrange their lives in the metropolis, and only then have children. But a further increase in the age of women in labor can lead to critical consequences. In this regard, it is important to pay attention at the public level to the importance of the state of health of a young mother, to cultivate the fashion of a strong family, to further protect the rights of women who have given birth (control over the preservation of the workplace after leaving maternity leave, enhanced supervision over the payment of alimony to a child in case of divorce of parents, etc.).
In the context of an aging population, complexities and high costs in the way of population reproduction, migration seems to be a simple and convenient way to increase the composition of the labor force and reduce the burden on the state budget. But to have a positive effect, migration must be strictly controlled by government agencies.
Only legal migration on a limited scale can have a favorable economic impact on the metropolis without aggravating intercultural and interethnic problems. To do this, some experts suggest taking the following steps:
- a thorough study of the characteristics of migration to Moscow, including the goals, motives, duration and frequency of stay of different groups of migrants, the problems of adaptation and integration into society that they face;
- providing assistance to migrants in the process of adaptation in society, especially for ethnic migrants;
- informing migrants about their rights and obligations, providing them with affordable and legal ways of employment and registration of their stay;
- raising the level of qualification of specialists in the field of registration of migrants in order to obtain adequate information on labor migration in the metropolis
Conclusion
This article examined the main aspects of the demographic situation in the metropolitan metropolis: the birth rate, the age structure of the birth rate, mortality, natural increase, life expectancy, the demographic burden on the able-bodied population, migration rates, the main countries that “suppliers” of labor migrants to Moscow that exist in Moscow problems associated with population growth due to migration.
An analytical review of statistical data allows us to conclude that the birth rate in Moscow is characterized by an increase in its intensity, a positive natural increase and an increase in the average age of women in labor. Due to the high standard of living and quality medical care the death rate in the capital is lower, and life expectancy is higher than similar indicators in other cities and the Russian average. In addition, Moscow is characterized by a high proportion of the elderly population, and it is increasing every year. The migration policy is characterized by significant problems in the statistical accounting of migrants, which leads to an increase in the flow of illegal migrants, mainly from the former Soviet republics.
The possible measures presented in the second chapter to improve the current demographic situation and solve the pressing problems in the metropolis are to some extent idealized. Of course, not all of these measures can be implemented in the short term. In order to see the real effect of the measures taken by the Government in the field of demography, a lot of time must pass. Therefore, for a real solution to the problem, you need to think globally, for the future. But one thing is clear: increased state intervention in solving demographic problems is necessary.
Annex 1
Graph 1. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, people, Moscow
Graph 2. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, persons, Russian Federation
Appendix 2
Graph 3. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births per year on average per 1000 women aged, years), ppm, Moscow, urban population
Chart 4. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births per year on average per 1000 women aged, years), ppm,
Russian Federation, urban population
Annex 3
Table 1. Life expectancy at birth, years, year, Russian Federation, Moscow, men and women.
|
1990 |
1992 |
1994 |
1996 |
1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
| Men, RF |
63,7 |
61,9 |
57,4 |
59,6 |
61,2 |
58,7 |
58,9 |
60,4 |
61,9 |
63,1 |
64,56 |
65,13 |
|
| Men, MSC |
64,8 |
63,4 |
57,7 |
62,4 |
64,8 |
64,6 |
64,9 |
65,9 |
67,3 |
68,7 |
69,9 |
71,6 |
72,31 |
| Women, RF |
74,3 |
73,7 |
71,1 |
72,4 |
73,1 |
72,3 |
71,9 |
72,4 |
73,3 |
74,3 |
74,9 |
75,86 |
76,3 |
| Women, MSC |
73,9 |
71,5 |
73,8 |
74,6 |
74,8 |
75,8 |
76,9 |
77,8 |
Bibliographic list
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