In demographic analysis, the concept is used. Analysis of the demographic structure of the population
Statistical methods in demographic science represent one of the most important applications of the statistical method. Statistical analysis of phenomena and processes occurring in the social life of society is carried out using methods specific to statistics - methods of general indicators that give a numerical measurement of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of an object, the connections between them, and trends in their change.
All methods used in demography can be combined by their nature into three groups: statistical, mathematical and sociological. The objects of observation in demography are not individual people and events, but groups of people and events grouped according to certain rules, homogeneous in some respects. Such collections are called statistical facts. Demography seeks to establish and measure objectively existing relationships between statistical facts related to its subject, using for this purpose methods also developed in statistics, for example, methods of correlation and factor analysis. In demography, other statistical methods are also used, in particular sampling and index methods, the method of averages, alignment methods, tabular and others.
In demography, the scope of application of statistical methods is very extensive. It covers the process of observing and obtaining information about the population and individual demographic processes, data processing and construction of distribution series, analysis of demographic patterns and relationships, and calculation of summary indicators of population reproduction.
Collection and assessment of initial information is the first stage of any statistical observation. Information for purposes demographic analysis is based on data from three main sources: population censuses, current records, and sample demographic studies. The variety of numerical data obtained as a result of statistical observation requires appropriate processing and analysis. For this purpose, distribution series are constructed, which represent statistical populations ordered by appropriate characteristics at any point or period of time. In demography, there are three types of such series:
- - distribution of the population itself according to certain characteristics (by gender, age, occupation, education, etc.);
- -distribution of population groups (families or types of settlement by size, age, etc.);
- -distribution of demographic events (number of births by order, mother’s age, deaths due to causes, marriage rates, duration of marriage).
The frequency of the spread of a particular demographic event in a certain environment characterizes its intensity and is measured by various coefficients. They represent the ratio of the number of events to the population in which they occurred, or to the size of a particular group. Depending on the exact number of events these numbers correspond to, general, special and partial coefficients are distinguished. Total coefficients are also used, which are the sum of age-specific (i.e. partial) coefficients, for example, the total fertility rate. Sometimes in the analysis there are comparison coefficients of opposite processes, showing how many times the intensity of one is greater than the intensity of the other, for example, how many marriages there are for one divorce (marriage stability coefficient). demographic migration economic
Next stage statistical study socio-economic phenomena - determining their structure, i.e. identifying the parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which in population statistics are called typological and structural.
To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the characteristics of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping sign. For example, on the question of attitude towards the person recorded first on the census form, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to identify a significant number of groups. This characteristic is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to draw up in advance a list of classifications (groupings by attributive characteristics) needed for analysis. When compiling classifications with a large number of attribute records, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. Thus, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics reduce into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called dictionary of occupations.
When studying the structure based on quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalizing indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The structures of phenomena under consideration serve as the basis for studying the connections in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical connections are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the resulting characteristic.
Grouping by factor attribute and comparison with changes in the resultant attribute allows us to establish the direction of the relationship: is it direct or inverse, as well as give an idea of its form of broken regression. These groupings make it possible to construct a system of equations necessary to find the parameters of the regression equation and determine the closeness of the relationship by calculating correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of variance analysis of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.
Statistical methods for studying dynamics, graphical study of phenomena, index, sample and balance methods are widely used in the study of the population. We can say that population statistics uses the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study its object. In addition, methods developed only for studying populations are also used. These are methods of real generation (cohorts) and conditional generation. The first allows us to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second considers the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - cross-sectional analysis.
The method of longitudinal analysis received this name due to the fact that when using it, the researcher goes, as it were, “along” the life of a certain group of people. This method is used to study the dynamics of any demographic process over the life of one generation. When using this method, demographic events are described in cohorts (a cohort is understood as a set of people who simultaneously entered one or another state, for example, were born in the same year, married in the same year, etc.). Therefore, this method is also called the real generation method, or cohort method. The longitudinal analysis method also makes it possible to identify the calendar of demographic events, i.e., their distribution over periods of the cohort’s life.
The cross-sectional analysis method is one of the most common in demography due to the fact that its application requires data for only a year or two. It allows one to judge the current state of demographic processes, however, with sudden changes in the nature of these processes over time, it can give a distorted picture. Usually, when studying a population, a researcher has information about its size and age-sex composition as of the date of the last census, as well as materials from current statistical records of various demographic events (births, deaths, etc.) for the years close to the date of the census. Having information about the age composition of the population, real generations can be “dissected” from top to bottom. At the same time, materials from current statistical records on the number of demographic events that have occurred by age are used (for example, the number of deaths by age). Thus, we obtain age-specific characteristics of a demographic event (in our example, mortality) of a hypothetical, or conditional, generation, i.e. a conditional population of people for whom it is assumed that throughout the life of these people the intensity of demographic processes at each age will be the same as that existing in the modern period. In this case, people of different ages living today are conventionally considered as belonging to the same generation. Since in this case the researcher mentally goes “across” the line of life, the method is called cross-sectional analysis, and since one has to deal with a hypothetical, or conditional, generation, it is also called the method of conditional (hypothetical) generation.
Also common demographic methods include the method of potential demography, when demographic processes are expressed not by the number of specific events or person-years lived, but by the so-called demographic potential - the number of person-years of life ahead, and the method of standardizing demographic coefficients, which makes it possible to exclude the influence of differences in comparisons as part of the population of compared territories or for compared periods of time.
For example, if the population of two territories has different fertility rates, this may be caused by both different intensity of this process in people of the same age, and differences in the age structure.
The methods used in demographic analysis can be divided into groups.
1. Statistical methods, or demographic statistics. These methods have been used for a long time and are well established. To analyze trends in demographic events, statistical analysis methods are used, which involve calculating absolute, relative and average values, indices, and probable characteristics of the intensity of demographic processes. Examples of such indicators can be: absolute increase (decrease) in population over a certain period of time; the rate of increase (decrease) in the population of the entire or a specific age group; ratio of men and women on average and by age groups, etc.
Based on the general statistical methodology for analyzing demographic statistics, they have developed their own methods of analysis, an example of which can be the so-called demographic tables.
They represent a system of probable characteristics of the age-specific intensity of events. For example, life tables contain “probability of death” indicators, which characterize the probability for a person who has reached the age of X years to die at age x+n years.
2.Mathematical models. A wide variety of connections between demographic processes and factors necessitated the use of mathematical models. Such models make it possible to establish a quantitative relationship between demographic processes and the factors influencing them.
Mathematical models are used to analyze patterns of development of individual demographic processes, reproduction of the population as a whole, analysis of patterns of family development and the relationship of demographic processes with economic development, the state of the environment, etc. The widespread use of mathematical models in demographic analysis is facilitated by the use of modern electronic computer technology.
3. Sociological methods. To analyze demographic behavior, information is needed that can be obtained using special methods and techniques (about personality, family decisions, motivation for individual demographic actions of a person, etc.). Such methods were developed in sociology and psychology and are borrowed from demography.
4.Graphoanalytical and cartographic methods presented in the form of graphs, diagrams, drawings, population density maps, etc. Such a display makes it possible to clearly show and more easily imagine the general patterns of development of demographic processes and their structure.
Specific (proprietary) graphic methods include a graphic representation of the age-sex structure of the population, the so-called age-sex pyramids. They reflect the age and sex structure of the population at a certain moment and give an idea of the influence of fertility and mortality processes on the age composition of the population over a long period of time, as well as the influence of the current age structure of the population on the prospects for increasing its number.
The demographic grid (Lexis grid, Press grid) is also widely used in demography, which, using graphical construction, displays a set of people and events in order to calculate the main characteristics of demographic processes in a generation and analyze their course over time (Fig. 5).
Fig.1 Demographic grid
Analysis of demographic events on the demographic grid is carried out using three types of lines: a horizontal age line, a vertical time line and a diagonal life line, which runs at an angle 45 degrees.
The ability to determine individual demographic characteristics using a grid is based on the relationship: the date of occurrence of a certain event is equal to the date a person entered a certain state plus the duration of stay in this state at the time of the event (at the time of observation). A necessary condition for this is that time and duration of the state are counted in the same units.
For example, the date of marriage is 1996, and the date of birth of the child is 01/01/2000. Using the graphical representation shown in Fig. 1, you can establish the duration of marriage before the birth of a child.
5.Qualitative demographic analysis involves compliance with certain methodological requirements both for the selection of specific methods and indicators, and for the analyzed information. One of the information requirements to ensure the reliability of calculations is its volume and quality. It must be comprehensive and reliable both as a whole and for individual items.
First of all, the indicators should relate to the population of the territory being analyzed. It is also necessary to check the completeness of the accounting of all demographic processes needed for the analysis. The reliability of information increases when using the maximum possible number of different sources of information, including survey results. This ensures the versatility of population information and facilitates comprehensive analysis.
To conduct a qualitative demographic analysis, you also need data characterizing the factors on which the dynamics of processes in the population depend. For example, when analyzing the dynamics of the birth rate, it is necessary to take into account the changes that occur in the economic sphere, in the environment, etc.
Introduction
Analysis of the demographic situation, or otherwise, the state of population reproduction, is one of the constituent aspects of demography as a science, namely demography in practical terms.
In practical terms, the field of demographic research includes:
Description of the demographic situation;
Analysis of trends and factors of demographic processes in the country as a whole, in its individual territory or in population groups during different periods.
Analysis of the demographic situation of the region and the country as a whole allows us to identify positive and negative trends in population changes, factors influencing these changes, and thanks to this, take appropriate measures to improve or maintain the current demographic situation.
Currently, depopulation processes in the regions and in the country as a whole are so intense and long-lasting that if adequate measures are not taken, then in the coming decades the population of Russia will decrease to dangerous limits, which can lead to serious social, economic and geopolitical problems. Most regions of the Russian Federation are characterized by a high level of natural population decline, but at the same time, each individual region has its own characteristics of the natural and migration movement of the population, which must be taken into account when implementing certain areas of demographic policy.
The demographic situation of any territory is determined by the ratio of three quantities:
Birth and death rates,
Marriage rate (divorce rate) and the state of the age-sex structure,
And migration mobility.
The government of each region should analyze the possibilities of improving the demographic situation through each of these components. In this work, such an analysis was carried out for the Republic of Mari El.
The changes that occurred in the socio-economic development of Russia in the early 90s largely determined the current demographic situation. An increase in mortality, a decrease in the birth rate, and a migration decline in population led to depopulation in the Republic of Mari El. The deep crisis of the family institution, which is the root cause of demographic ill-being, and, to some extent, the difficult socio-economic situation, determined the development of negative demographic processes, expressed by the following trends.
Analysis of the demographic situation
Population size.
Table 1. - Resident population in the Republic of Mari El
In the last decade, the demographic processes taking place in our country have a clearly negative character. Low fertility combined with high mortality led to a depopulation effect, expressed in natural population decline in the vast majority of regions of the country and in Russia as a whole.
According to the annual Report of the United Nations Population Fund for 2005, a demographic crisis continues in Russia. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991. The mortality rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, and the population is declining by several hundred thousand people every year.
A negative feature of Russia is the fact that as a result of the demographic transition, the birth rate has fallen to the level developed countries, while mortality remained at developing levels.
According to some demographers, the decline in mortality as a result of health care developments has been offset since the 1960s. increase in alcohol mortality.
Other demographers believe that the high mortality rate is associated with the incompleteness of the processes of modernization in Russia, including the sociocultural aspect. In particular, taking care of one’s own health is not a high value within the mentality of a significant part of the population, which predetermines high alcoholism, mortality from accidents (including road traffic accidents), an abnormal prevalence of a number of diseases, etc.
For the period 1990-2005. the natural population decline in Russia amounted to 5.9% (11.2 million people). In the Republic of Mari El for the same period - 5.8% (43.8 thousand people). According to the 2002 population census, 73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural residents; in the republic this ratio is somewhat different: 63% and 37%, respectively (Table 1).
According to available estimates, by 2050 the population of Russia will range from 83 to 115 million people. In particular, in the medium-term program of social economic development, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, indicates that if the current rate of migration continues, by 2025 the number of Russians will decrease to approximately 120 million, and by 2050 to 100 million people. UN forecast - 115 million people, forecast of the Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences - 83 million people. .
Table 2.- Specific gravity individual age groups in the total urban and rural population in the Republic of Mari El, %
|
Population below working age |
Working age population |
Population over working age |
|||||||
|
Total for the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
Total for the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
Total for the republic |
Urban population |
Rural population |
|
Of the two types of demographic aging: aging from below, which is a natural result of a decrease in the birth rate and aging from above - as a consequence of increasing life expectancy, Russia, like Mari El, certainly belongs to the first.
Currently, the share of people aged 65 years and older in the Russian population is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of a given age exceeds 7%. The rural population is characterized by a more intensive rate of “all-Russian aging”. The difference in the proportion of elderly among the rural and urban population in 2005 was expressed by the following figures: 22.6% - in rural areas versus 19.8% in the urban environment. In the Republic of Mari El, during the same period, there was a difference of 0.7% in the proportion towards the elderly population (Table 2).
According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2016, elderly people over 60 years of age will already make up 20% of the total number of Russians, and children under 15 years old will account for only 17%. The aging of the population in the near future may have a negative impact on the development of the country's economy. If from 1995 to 2005, due to a decrease in life expectancy and, in particular, fertility, the burden per able-bodied person in Mari El decreased from 0.78 to 0.55 dependents (0.77 to 0.58 in Russia), then after 2007 This year it will begin to increase and by 2020 it will return to the 1995 level. A situation in which there is one dependent for every worker is expected only after 2045-2050.
Table 3. - Number of men and women in the Republic of Mari El, people.
Characteristic of both the population of Russia and the population of the Republic of Mari El, a significant excess in the number of women compared to the number of men is shown in Table 3. The share of women in the population of the republic averages 53.3% (53.4% of women in the entire population of Russia) .
Fertility and mortality. Fertility in demography - central problem. In modern conditions of relatively low mortality, the reproduction of the population as a whole is determined solely by the level and dynamics of the birth rate. Fertility is the frequency of births in a certain social environment, making up a generation, or a set of generations. Fertility, interacting with mortality, forms population reproduction.
Since the second half of the twentieth century, there has been a steady decline in the birth rate in Russia. Intrafamily regulation of childbearing is becoming widespread, becoming an integral part of people's lifestyles and becoming the main factor determining the level of fertility. The beginning of this process occurred in the post-war years and continues today, and since the beginning of the 90s, the birth rate has also been influenced by sharp changes in the political and social... economic life countries.
Table 4.- Fertility, mortality and natural increase in the Republic of Mari El
|
Total, person |
Per 1000 population |
|||||
|
born |
born |
natural increase, decrease(-) |
||||
|
Whole population |
||||||
|
Urban population |
||||||
|
Rural population |
||||||
The birth rate of the Mari El Republic is very low, while the mortality rate is very high, which suggests that there is a demographic decline in the republic (Table 4), and this situation is observed among both the urban and rural population, which is primarily The queue is a consequence of the poor security of families aged 19 to 40 years, poor housing conditions and the general standard of living. That is why the number one task of the demographic policy of the Mari El Republic is the rejuvenation of the population.
Table 5. - Life expectancy at birth in the Republic of Mari El, number of years
The average life expectancy in Mari El is 63 years. At the same time, for women it is on average 71 years, for men - 56 years (Table 5), which is lower than the Russian average (65, 72 and 58 years). The main reason for the reduction in life expectancy is high mortality of the working age population (in 2005, 4,432 people of working age died - this is 36% of the total number of deaths, according to Russian Federation- 30 percent).
Table 6. - Age-specific fertility rates in the Republic of Mari El
|
Average births per year per 1000 women aged, years |
Total fertility rate |
||||||||
The total fertility rate (TFR), which represents the number of children born on average to one woman, has remained at 1.34--1.35 in the republic for the last two years (as in Russia as a whole). To ensure simple reproduction, the value of this coefficient must be at least 2.1. With today's indicators, the Russian birth rate is abnormally low even against the backdrop of demographically problematic European countries. The greatest concern is the sad fact that the alarmingly low birth rate of Russians will most likely continue to decline. The results of sociological studies indicate a further decline in reproductive attitudes among future parents, which fully allows for a drop in the birth rate to TFR values of 0.6-0.8 in the next decade.
An aggravating factor in the demographic tragedy is the unprecedentedly high out-of-wedlock birth rate (30% of the total number of births), which is a consequence of the widespread prevalence of unregistered cohabitation.
A change in value orientations towards starting a family is also evidenced by a shift in the birth rate to later ages. This trend is clearly displayed in Table 6, which shows a gradual increase in the number of children born to women aged 25-29 years. In the near future, late motherhood may become the norm for childbearing, which will complicate severe demographic situation in the republic and Russia as a whole.
Table 7. - Population mortality from individual causes of death in the Republic of Mari El
Up to 80% of deaths in Mari El are due to cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, infectious diseases, alcohol poisoning and injuries. Unnatural causes occupy a special place in the national mortality structure. In 2005 alone, about 593 people became victims of alcohol poisoning, 245 died from homicide and 463 people died from suicide.
The high mortality rate among men reaches its maximum in the age groups from 44 to 59 years old - a period that is considered to be in its prime. Of particular concern is the rate of increase in mortality in cases of acute poisoning of chemical etiology, including alcohol and its surrogates. In 2003, 359 people died from poisoning with alcohol and its surrogates in the republic; in 2004, the number of deaths increased to 512 people; in 2005, the number of poisonings was 975, of which 593 were fatal.
For 2002-2005 the share of alcohol intoxications in the overall structure of acute intoxications in the republic as a whole increased from 18.7% to 50%. The current situation is confirmed by data from state supervision over the turnover of alcohol and alcohol-containing products.
Table 8. - Infant mortality by main causes of death in the Republic of Mari El
|
Indicators |
|||||
|
Number of children who died under the age of 1 year |
|||||
|
Total deaths from all causes |
|||||
|
including from: |
|||||
|
respiratory diseases |
|||||
|
digestive diseases |
|||||
|
congenital anomalies |
|||||
|
conditions arising in the perinatal period |
|||||
|
accidents, poisonings and injuries |
Despite the fact that the share of infant mortality in the overall mortality structure is less than one percent, doctors pay close attention to it, since this indicator is largely manageable.
Infant mortality in Mari El during the period from 1990 to 2005 decreased by almost three times.
Table 9. - Marriages and divorces in the Republic of Mari El
|
divorces |
||
Statistics show convincing evidence of a consistent decline in the number of marriages. For 1990-2005 their absolute number in Mari El decreased by 29% (by 32% in Russia) and at the same time there is an increase in the number of divorces.
The growth in the number of extramarital cohabitations continues to play a sharply negative role in the demographic development of the republic and Russia. According to the most conservative estimates, there are about 70 thousand so-called “civil marriages” in Mari El (about 3 million in Russia). The demographic effect of this phenomenon is easy to assess if we consider that the birth rate in unregistered unions is two times lower than in legitimate marriages.
2.2 Basic demographic indicators.
All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators (or values) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often for a year). These include, for example, the population size on a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. for a year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators in themselves are not informative; they are usually used in analytical work as initial data for calculation of relative indicators. For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they are always a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.
The first most general quantitative measure of population is the number determined by census, current accounting, and, in the presence of certain research conditions, by mathematical modeling, the simplest types of which are prospective and retrospective extrapolation.
The essential characteristic of a population is the ratio of its number and the size of the territory in which it lives. This ratio is measured by population density, which is characterized by the number of inhabitants per certain area, for example, per square kilometer of their habitat. At the same time, it is important to know not only the overall population density, but also across regions of varying scales, depending on the purposes of the study.
Russia, especially its eastern and northern regions, is one of the areas with the lowest population density. By dividing the population of Russia 141 million people (at the beginning of 2010) by the area of the territory of Russia (17075.4 sq. km), we obtain the population density at the specified point in time - 8.3 people per 1 sq. km. At the present stage, this causes many vulnerable circumstances that make its geopolitical, military, economic and other position very fragile. Similar conclusions can be drawn regarding the potential of its sparsely populated territories (municipalities).
The population is differentiated into component elements according to the most important criteria for social management:
Age and age composition - the ratio of the number of individual age groups;
Gender and sexual composition - the ratio of men and women in the population as a whole and by different ages;
Marital status and family composition - distribution of the population by family status (married, never married, divorced, widowed);
Level of education: share of those with one or another educational qualification;
Social status and social composition - distribution of the population by sources of income, by social groups and subgroups;
Ethnic - distribution of the population by nationality, as well as by native language, spoken language;
Economic - distribution of the population among the employed in certain industries, those engaged in mental and physical labor, the unemployed, etc.
Of particular, basic importance are the indicators of the age-sex structure, which participates in the enrichment of the cognitive potential of all other demostatic indicators. Different age and sex groups play different roles in the reproduction of the population and in its functioning, including in its economic, political and social activity.
Gender is a characteristic that remains unchanged throughout a person’s life, while age inevitably and evenly increases.
Age is the period from a person’s birth to one or another countable event in his life. The extreme points on a person's life line are birth and death, and between them lies a sequence of demographic events.
Particularly important for characterizing the demographic subsystem of a municipality are indicators of economic demography. The most important indicators of economic demography are indicators characterizing labor resources. First of all, the working-age population, the working-age population, dependents and the demographic burden on the able-bodied and working population.
Working age population indicator characterizes that part of the total population that is within the legally established age limits for labor activity in a particular country. In our country, the following age limits are defined: for men 16-59 years old, for women 16-54 years old.
Working-age population indicator represents that part of the working-age population that, due to its mental and physical qualities, has the ability to work.
Indicator of number and proportion of dependents characterizes all the population unable to work due to age or health conditions.
Demographic load indicator for the working-age population determined by the ratio of the population capable and unable to work and dependents.
The ratio of the first and second indicators is used to create an indicator of the health status of the working-age population.
A comparative analysis of these indicators in terms of the age-sex structure of the population and other characteristics of its demographic composition, supplemented by an analysis of time series of based and derived purely demographic indicators, constitutes the demo-economic basis of many areas of economic policy and practice.
All these indicators, as a rule, have a quantitative expression, which are based on measurements of demographic phenomena and processes.
All demographic coefficients, regardless of their type, represent the ratio of certain values to the population size or any part of it, to the size of the cohort or to the total number of demographic events. They are calculated in order to make these values independent of the population size or other group taken as the basis of comparison, and thereby bring them into a comparable form.
Demographic coefficients according to the classification of indicators adopted in statistics are relative values and are calculated according to the rules adopted for them: in the case of comparing different values, it is necessary that they relate to the same period of time, to the population of the same territory, to the same and to the same population groups, and allocated on the same grounds. When data is obtained from various sources, it is important to compare not only in time and territory, but also in relation to the methodology for determining the category of population covered by each source, the content of accepted groups, etc.
Methods of expressing demographic coefficients vary depending on the possible range of values, each of them, the required accuracy, logic of description and analysis. They are usually expressed in units, percentage (%) or ppm (‰), i.e. per thousand people (1 ppm equals 0.1 percent or 1% = 10)
Population indicators.
Population– a momentary indicator, i.e. it always refers to an exact moment in time. Population loss is called depopulation.
Based on population data over a number of years, it is possible to calculate absolute growth, growth rates and average population size.
Population S:
1) - data at the beginning and end of the year.
2)
at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this is the formula for the chronological average.
3) for unequal intervals - this is the weighted average formula.
Indicators of natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation.
Natural population movement.
It is a change in population due to the processes of birth and death.
Natural increase: = P – Y,
Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.
The simplest indicators of vital statistics - general rates - are so called because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc., they are correlated with the total population.
Table 1 (see Appendix 1)
|
Index |
Calculation method (%) |
|
|
1. Total fertility rate (n) |
Number of live births (N) per 1000 people. average population per year (‰) |
|
|
2. Crude mortality rate (m) |
Number of deaths (M) per 1000 people. average population per year (‰) |
|
|
3. Coefficient of natural increase (Кn-m) |
Natural increase per 1000 people. population on average per year |
|
|
4. Population turnover rate (Kn+m) |
Number of births and deaths per 1000 people. population on average per year |
|
|
5. Reproduction efficiency coefficient (Ke) |
Share of natural increase in total population turnover |
Ke = (n - m) / (n + m) |
Total fertility rate:
,
Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country entirely depends is the birth rate.
Overall mortality rate:
Overall rate of natural increase:
General vital rates are calculated with standard precision to the nearest tenths of a ppm.
Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration.
Mechanical change is a change in population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. due to migrations.
Migration is the mechanical movement of the population within a country or between countries.
P – V, where P is the number of arrivals to a given territory, V is the number of those leaving a given territory.
Table 2 (see Appendix 2)
|
Index |
Calculation method |
|
|
1. Migration coefficient (Kv) |
Balance of migration per 1000 people. population i-th group on average for the year, V+ - V- (V+ – number of arrivals; V- – number of departures) |
|
|
2. Arrival rate (Kv+) |
Number of arrivals per 1000 people. population on average per year |
|
|
3. Retirement rate (Kv-) |
Number of people leaving per 1000 people. population on average per year |
|
|
4. Survival rate of new settlers (Kn) |
Share of new settlers. those who remained for permanent residence in a given area (), in the total number of arrivals in a given area during the study period (one, two, three, etc.) (), % |
|
|
5. Population mobility coefficient (Kn-1) |
The share of new settlers who have not taken root () in the total number of arrivals in a given area, % |
Total population growth:
where is natural population growth; - migration (mechanical) population growth.
Mechanical gain coefficient:
where is the average annual population.
Total growth rate:
Advantages of general odds:
1) eliminate differences in population sizes (since they are calculated per 1000 inhabitants) and make it possible to compare the levels of demographic processes of territories with different population sizes;
2) one number characterizes the state of a complex demographic phenomenon or process, i.e. they are general in nature;
3) for their calculation, official statistical publications almost always contain source data;
4) are easy to understand and are often used in the media.
General coefficients have a disadvantage stemming from their very nature, which consists in the heterogeneous structure of their denominator. When using general coefficients to study the dynamics of demographic processes, it remains unknown due to what factors the value of the coefficient changed: either due to a change in the process being studied, or due to the structure of the population.
Analysis demographic situations and usage assessment labor resources Russia (2)Thesis >> Economics... Analysis demographic situations Oktyabrsky municipal district 2.4 Analysis labor activity potential of the population 3 Main areas of improvement demographic situations...security of the country. Modern situation V Russia worsened by the fact that both...
Demographic situation V Russia using the example of the Saratov region
Abstract >> SociologyG. Engels Demographic situation V Russia For example Saratov region Project goal: Identify features demographic situations V Russia on... and the works of D. Bernoulli and L. Euler devoted to mathematical analysis mortality. In the 19th century the question arose...
Analysis demographic situations in the country and the influence of economic and social factors on it
Coursework >> SociologyAfter the collapse of the Union, they do analysis demographic situations difficult task. 1. Analysis demographic situations in the country and the impact on... people determines the future demographic situation in the country. general characteristics state of affairs in Russia given by the director...
Introduction
Being the largest city in Russia and throughout Europe, Moscow faces demographic problems typical of most megacities: high density population, low birth rate, population increase due to migration influx. According to Moscow City Statistics Service, as of January 1, 2014, the number of permanent residents of the Russian capital exceeded 12.1 million people, while the share of the rural population was only 1%.
Annual population growth due to migration from other regions of Russia and foreign countries remains high despite a decline in the crisis year of 2014. However, it is not easy for the capital to cope with such a rate of population influx, increase in its density, and, consequently, a decrease in the quality of life. This is evidenced by a decrease in the proportion of indigenous residents of the city, an aging population, a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in the average age of childbirth and other adverse consequences.
The programs carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation aimed at increasing the population have had a beneficial effect on the central region: since 2011, there has been an increase in natural population growth and an increase in life expectancy.
The purpose of this work is to study the demographic situation in Moscow. To achieve the goal, the author set himself the following tasks:
- assess fertility rates and marital stability;
- study statistics on mortality and life expectancy of the population;
- assess migration processes in Moscow;
- offer possible ways improving the demographic situation in the capital.
The work is structured as follows. The first chapter presents basic statistical data characterizing the current demographic situation in Moscow and identifying problematic aspects. The first paragraph of the first chapter describes natural demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and life expectancy. The second paragraph is devoted to the characteristics of migration processes in the metropolis. The second chapter proposes possible measures to improve the described demographic situation and solve the identified problems. D In conclusion, conclusions are presented about the demographic processes taking place in the capital and the proposed actions of the Government of the Russian Federation to solve these problems.
Chapter 1. Current demographic situation in Moscow
1.1. Natural processes
Fertility is one of the most significant demographic processes that determine demographic dynamics, namely, the rate of population reproduction.
For many years, Moscow, as a region of Central Russia, has been characterized by a low birth rate compared to the Russian average (11.3 births per 1000 population versus 13.3 Russian average in 2012). However, after a significant decline in the birth rate in the 1990s and reaching a minimum in 1999, its rates began to rise continuously. Since 2011, the capital has experienced positive natural population growth, associated with a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. The first fact is largely due to the implementation of Russian Government programs in 2006 and 2007 aimed at supporting the birth rate and strengthening the institution of the family; the second is an increase in life expectancy. Graphs 1 and 2 show the dynamics of these indicators for Moscow and Russia (see Appendix 1).
It should be noted that despite the general increase in the birth rate in Moscow and other cities of the Russian Federation, in the capital after 2009 there was no slowdown in the birth rate, which is typical for other cities. Thus, we can talk about maintaining consistently high birth rates relative to other regions.
Another characteristic of the capital region is the ambiguity in the estimate of the number of births. The fact is that children born to nonresident mothers are taken into account, but the mothers themselves, in relation to whom this statistical indicator is calculated, are not. As a result, birth rates are overestimated.
The values of the age-specific birth rate for Moscow are also specific. It represents the number of births per woman in a certain age group (each group is equal to four years) and reflects the age-sex composition of women of reproductive age.
Muscovites, like most other residents of Russian cities in 2004-2010, were characterized by a decrease in the number of children born to young women (15-24 years old) and an increase in the age-specific birth rate among women aged 25-49 years. Moreover, in this age group there is a clear maximum of the coefficient (see Chart 3, Appendix 2).
The peculiarity of Moscow is that despite the lower average values of fertility rates, for the age group of 35-44 years they are higher than the national average. That is, postponing births has become increasingly common in Moscow over the years. According to V.N. Arkhangelsk , this phenomenon may lead to a decline in the overall birth rate. There are several reasons for this:
- decreased likelihood of giving birth due to a shortening of the reproductive period;
- the use of abortion as a way to get rid of untimely pregnancy, which can lead to the inability to give birth;
- deterioration of health with age, especially among residents of megacities, who are more exposed to stress and unfavorable environmental conditions;
- a decrease in the desire to have a child among women who are accustomed to living independently, for whom a certain standard of living has already been formed;
- derogation in society of the importance of the institution of a full-fledged family as a consequence of postponing childbirth, which may negatively affect the birth rate in the future.
At the same time, a certain (this time positive) contribution to the increase in the average age of women in labor was made by federal assistance programs for families, providing additional subsidies for the birth of a second and subsequent children. Despite the fact that Moscow does not collect data on those born by birth order, the positive impact federal programs may indicate an increase in age-specific birth rates in groups over 25 years of age (which are characterized by the birth of more than their first child).
Positive trends are also evident in mortality and life expectancy rates for Muscovites. Since 1994, life expectancy for residents of the capital has been increasing. (see Table 1, Appendix 3) In addition, this indicator remained unchanged for men and increased slightly for women, even with a significant reduction for other Russians in the early 2000s.
At the same time, still low birth rates, a reduction in mortality and an increase in life expectancy lead to an increase in the average age of city residents, a reduction in the share of the working-age population (over 2010-2013, the share of the working-age population decreased by 1.5%) and, most importantly, his aging. The share of Muscovites aged 65 years and older is higher than the Russian average (12.9%). From graph 5 (see Appendix 4) it is clear that the percentage of elderly people in the metropolis continues to grow.
Based on the data presented in the table, we can draw an unpleasant conclusion: the burden of children on the working-age population is lower than in Russia, and for the elderly this figure is higher. Moreover, the burden from the latter has tended to increase since 2003, which leads to such negative consequences as an increased burden on the budget, an increase in transfer payments and the provision of medical services, and a reduction in the workforce.
1.2. Migration processes
Economic interests have been and remain one of the main reasons for migration. Possessing high economic potential, Moscow is the largest center of migrant influx in Russia. Thanks to this fact, the population of Moscow is growing at a high rate, despite low birth rates and negative natural growth until 2011. Thus, with zero and negative growth rates, the population of Moscow on average increases by 1 million people every ten years over the course of a century.
It is obvious that such population growth is ensured by the influx of migrants. Moreover, foreign immigrants account for 10% of all arrivals in the capital. Only a third of them are labor migrants. Therefore, a decrease in the influx of workers from abroad, due to an increase in the cost of a patent for work and a depreciation of the ruble exchange rate, is unlikely to significantly affect the total migration growth of the population of Moscow.
Census data from 1989-2010 indicate that in 2010, every second resident of the capital (aged 25-30 years) did not live in it in 1989. The high density and high rate of increase in the number of residents of the capital lead to the emergence of social problems and growing discontent among the indigenous population. A significant role in the formation of negative attitudes is played by the multinationality of our country and the formation of the multiethnicity of the capital over the decades with the influx of migrants from foreign countries and republics of our state. According to the 2002 census, after Russians, the predominant share of Moscow's population are Ukrainians, Tatars, or Armenians. In addition, representatives of 12 nationalities are present in the city in numbers ranging from 10 to 100 thousand people. In total, representatives of 168 nationalities live in the capital.
An urgent problem for Russia is the statistical recording of migrants. Thus, some unofficial sources say that the number of foreign migrants in Moscow reaches two million, but FMS data for 2013 number only one million. The bulk of illegal migrants are laborers. In this regard, special attention will be paid to the labor migration of foreign citizens.
The flow of temporary, and along with it, illegal labor migration is constantly increasing. It turns out that illegal workers occupy jobs, use public and medical (childbirth, for example) benefits of the capital, but do not pay taxes in the state budget. In addition, migration is one of the top three problems that influence the increase in crime. Thus, according to Moscow prosecutor Sergei Kudeneyev, in 2012, migrants committed every sixth crime in the metropolis, every third crime related to robbery and robbery.
The author is sure that government bodies and the media often deliberately highlight crimes committed by migrants to distract attention from more important public issues. But there is a certain truth in these facts. Illegal migration is a potential environment for the growth of corruption, provoking interethnic conflicts, and worsening the epidemiological and criminal situation in the metropolis. The fact is that a significant part of immigrants in Russia are uneducated people, among whom the crime rate is higher. Ignorance of the laws of the host country and national characteristics play a role (the kidnapping of underage brides is unacceptable in Russia, for example).
Uneducated migrants are economically of little benefit to Russia. If a migrant has received at least one course of higher education, not to mention knowledge of the Russian language, his potential usefulness for the metropolis increases significantly. And uneducated illegal migrants can cause real harm to welfare. Dumping can also be added to the above problems. wages in the sector of unskilled workers, increasing workload social infrastructure city, not compensated from funds federal budget (medical services, education, police control, fire services and much more), unhealthy competition in some market segments (illegal trade).
The main flow of migrants to Moscow comes from Uzbekistan (17.5% of all arrivals), Tajikistan (12.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (11.5%). Labor migration is becoming more culturally distant. Gradually, enclaves - migration areas - are formed. Migrants and the population develop mutual hostility. Thus, a survey in the Demoscopeweekly magazine suggests that Muscovites are most afraid of bandits and migrants, and migrants are most afraid of the police, skinheads and Muscovites.
But despite the existing problems, it is impossible to stop the influx of both Russian and foreign migrants. Migrants are the workforce, including skilled labor. A survey in one of the articles in the Demoskom magazine indicates that a third of Muscovites have used the services of foreign migrants in their households for three years. The use of migrant labor in households allows qualified Muscovites not to leave the labor market, but to shift care of the elderly, construction work, cleaning of living quarters and much more to migrants. It cannot be denied that, thanks to the influx of foreign migrants, the costs of construction work and improving the city’s infrastructure have decreased.
Chapter 2. Possible measures to improve the demographic situation in Moscow
Despite positive population growth in recent years and a reduction in mortality, the birth rate still remains at a critically low level. Government programs to increase the birth rate cannot be carried out forever, especially in the current situation when the state faces budget savings. In addition, even the number of children desired by families (less than two for all age groups of women giving birth) is not enough for a stable increase in the number of the indigenous population of the capital and a change in demographic dynamics. In this case, it is important to influence not only economic, but also psychological aspects. Competent campaigning and promotion of the cult of family and children are needed to provoke among the population a desire to have more children. It is necessary to change the values of society so that a large number of children raised by families becomes a source of pride.
It is also important to support low-income families with a large potential number of births, but little material opportunity for this. We are talking about visitors who have been living in Moscow for a long period of time (10 years, for example), but have not yet managed to settle down. As mentioned above, newcomers usually give birth to more children. Among the possible measures, loans for the purchase of housing with special repayment options subject to the birth of children, the extension of paid leave in the amount of the minimum subsistence level, or the opening of kindergartens with preferential terms payment.
The problem of increasing the average age of women in labor deserves special attention. Of course, this trend is understandable: Muscovites prefer to get an education, arrange their lives in a metropolis, and only then have children. But further increase in the age of women in labor can lead to critical consequences. In this regard, it is important to pay attention at the public level to the importance of the health status of a young mother, to cultivate the fashion of a strong family, to further protect the rights of women who have given birth (monitoring the preservation of a job after leaving maternity leave, enhanced supervision over the payment of child support in the event of parental divorce, etc.).
In the context of an aging population, difficulties and high costs in the way of population reproduction, migration seems simple and in a convenient way increasing the composition of the workforce and reducing the burden on the state budget. But to have a positive effect, migration must be strictly controlled by government agencies.
Only legal migration on a limited scale can have a beneficial economic impact on a metropolis without leading to an aggravation of intercultural and interethnic problems. To do this, some experts suggest taking the following measures:
- a thorough study of the characteristics of migration to Moscow, including the goals, motives, duration and frequency of stay of different groups of migrants, the problems of adaptation and integration into society that they face;
- providing assistance to migrants in the process of adaptation to society, especially for ethnic migrants;
- informing migrants about their rights and responsibilities, providing them with accessible and legal means of employment and registration of their stay;
- increasing the level of qualifications of specialists in the field of migrant registration to obtain adequate information on labor migration in the metropolis
Conclusion
This article examined the main aspects of the demographic situation in the metropolitan metropolis: birth rate, age structure of birth rate, mortality, natural increase, life expectancy, demographic burden on the working population, migration indicators, the main countries “supplying” labor migrants to Moscow, existing in Moscow problems associated with population growth due to migration.
An analytical review of statistical data allows us to conclude that the birth rate in Moscow is characterized by an increase in its intensity, a positive natural increase and an increase in the average age of women giving birth. Thanks to the high standard of living and quality medical care The mortality rate in the capital is lower, and life expectancy is higher than similar indicators in other cities and the Russian average. In addition, Moscow is characterized by a high proportion of elderly population, and it is increasing every year. Migration policy is characterized by significant problems in statistically recording migrants, which leads to an increase in the flow of illegal migrants, mainly from the former Soviet republics.
The possible measures presented in the second chapter to improve the current demographic situation and solve pressing problems in the metropolis are to some extent idealized. Of course, not all of these measures can be implemented in a short time. In order to see the real effect of the measures taken by the Government in the field of demography, a lot of time must pass. Therefore, to really solve the problem, you need to think globally, for the future. But one thing is clear: increased government intervention in solving demographic problems is necessary.
Annex 1
Schedule 1. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, people, Moscow
Schedule 2. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, people, Russian Federation
Appendix 2
Schedule 3. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births on average per year per 1000 women aged, years), ppm, Moscow, urban population
Schedule 4. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births on average per year per 1000 women of age, years), ppm,
Russian Federation, urban population
Appendix 3
Table 1. Life expectancy at birth, years, year, Russian Federation, Moscow, men and women.
|
1990 |
1992 |
1994 |
1996 |
1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
| Men, Russia |
63,7 |
61,9 |
57,4 |
59,6 |
61,2 |
58,7 |
58,9 |
60,4 |
61,9 |
63,1 |
64,56 |
65,13 |
|
| Men, MSK |
64,8 |
63,4 |
57,7 |
62,4 |
64,8 |
64,6 |
64,9 |
65,9 |
67,3 |
68,7 |
69,9 |
71,6 |
72,31 |
| Women, Russian Federation |
74,3 |
73,7 |
71,1 |
72,4 |
73,1 |
72,3 |
71,9 |
72,4 |
73,3 |
74,3 |
74,9 |
75,86 |
76,3 |
| Women, MSK |
73,9 |
71,5 |
73,8 |
74,6 |
74,8 |
75,8 |
76,9 |
77,8 |
Bibliography
|