Many people would like to know how the national currency exchange rate will change in the near future. The interest of stock speculators and traders is understandable - they make money from its fluctuations, but for ordinary citizens this information can be much more useful than it seems.

The weakening of the national currency leads to increased inflation and is reflected in the prices of goods and products. The strength and weakness of a currency affects bank interest rates on loans and deposits for the mortgage lending program and many other financial indicators.

The main world currency is the American dollar, because the main currency pairs and raw materials are tied to it. Therefore, the strength of a national currency largely depends on how its value changes in relation to the USD.

The American currency depends on many factors, which can be roughly divided into economic and political. The latter include geopolitical events involving the United States and the political situation within the country.

Since US geopolitical interests are represented throughout the world, any tension in the situation can have a strong impact on the USD. An example of this is the conflict with the DPRK, when any statements by the leaders of both sides have a serious impact on the quotes of the American currency.

Political tension in the United States itself is expressed by the eternal confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, which is expressed in problems in the adoption of various laws and reforms. For example, in November-December 2017, the dollar fluctuated greatly in anticipation of the adoption of the tax reform proposed by President Trump.

There are quite a few economic factors influencing the USD, and here are the main ones:

• oil price;
• Fed interest rate decisions;
• government bond yield;
• various economic indicators and indices;
• natural disasters.

The price of oil is a strong catalyst for many banknotes. In the case of the dollar, an increase in the cost of a barrel of oil negatively affects the currency, and a decrease leads to an increase in the USD. This can be explained very simply - oil is traded in US dollars and as its value rises, the need for US currency for purchase increases, and the demand for the currency leads to an increase in its quotations.

The interest rate of the Central Bank (in the case of the United States, the Federal Reserve) influences credit policy within the country. A high interest rate encourages saving and saving currency, while a low interest rate encourages more active spending.

The situation is similar with the yield of government bonds - the higher it is, the more attractive the American currency is for investors. Economic indicators have a short-term impact on the currency as they are published once a week. But natural disasters, or rather their consequences can seriously collapse any currency; in August 2017, the USD collapsed due to the activities of Hurricane Harvey.

In 2017, the weighted average exchange rate of the US dollar was 58.33 rubles. Its monthly dynamics from January to November is presented on the graph.

When drawing up the budget of the Russian Federation for 2018, the average annual dollar exchange rate was adopted at 64.7 rubles. Compared to 2017, economists from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation predict growth of the American currency by 10.92%. But some analysts at private equity firms are less optimistic in their forecasts. They predict that the Russian currency will fall to 90 rubles per dollar, although most experts still predict the value of quotes in the range of 65-75 rubles.

Head of Investment Department, Raiffeisen Capital Management Company, Vladimir Vedeneev, believes that in 2018 the ruble will be strongly influenced by the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States and the EU, as well as the growth of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia. All this could lead to an increase in the American currency above the 70 ruble mark.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development takes approximately the same position. Maxim Oreshkin. According to his most pessimistic forecasts, in 2018 the dollar should not exceed 67 rubles, and the most likely scenario is 63 rubles. for 1 $. And although the official assures that sharp fluctuations should not be expected, he still does not explain the reasons why The ruble will fall in price by almost 10%.

And here is the leading analyst at BCS Global Markets Vladimir Tikhomirov claims that at the end of 2018, RUR not only will not fall, but may even end it with a slight increase. This specialist’s forecast is based on the fact that the world will maintain stable demand for oil at a price of $65 per barrel and that tensions between the United States and Russia will subside. All this will allow the ruble to gain a foothold in the range of 57-59 perUSD.

In turn, his colleague, leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev, warns that in 2018 there is a very high probability of a fall in black gold prices. This is due to the fact that OPEC member countries, in order not to lose the market, can increase the production of cheap oil. This, in turn, can reduce the price of oil to $40, and the ruble will be pulled to the line of 80 units per dollar.

The growth of the dollar to the level of 70 rubles is predicted by the director of the analytical department of the Alpari company Alexander Razuvaev. But, in his opinion, the fundamental factor in this case will not be the price of oil, but the outflow of foreign capital from government debt securities of the Russian Federation, due to a possible new round of anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, the fall can be very rapid, up to 12-15% per month.

Financial Analyst at FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich, believes that the political component will allow the ruble to maintain its position in 2017. This is due to the fact that after the March elections, the transfer of power to other hands is unlikely. This means that the chosen vector of economic development of the country will not change. That is, the political and economic situation in the country will remain stable, which is what investors really like.

conclusions

Forecasting is a very difficult and often thankless task. And it is almost impossible to predict changes in the exchange rate of a currency such as USD versus RUR, and even a year in advance. If we take already known events as a basis (elections in the Russian Federation, current anti-Russian sanctions) and assume that no excesses will occur in global geopolitics and economics, The value of the dollar at the end of 2018 will be approximately 65 rubles.

This figure is due to the fact that, despite the predicted outcome of the March elections in the Russian Federation, in anticipation of this event the Russian currency will decline. And the further gradual strengthening of the dollar will be associated with good forecasts by economists and analysts on the economic development of the United States of America.

Video “Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018 / Is a ruble collapse just around the corner?”

Perhaps a couple of years ago, no one could have imagined that the cost of one dollar would be reach 70-80 rubles. People who decided to put forward such a bold forecast would simply be considered crazy. At the beginning of 2014, the devaluation of the ruble looked like a gradual decrease in the dollar exchange rate from 36 rubles to 39 per unit of American currency, which was supposed to occur only in 2017. Now we see that the value of the dollar has long exceeded 50 rubles, and has also managed to reach its maximum value, exceeding 70 rubles per dollar. Quite a few Russians are shocked by this turn of events, because no one could have foreseen such a crisis.

Will the dollar rise or fall?

In connection with what is happening, most citizens want to know what the exchange rate will be in the near future. If the crisis drags on, it will simply become impossible to survive. People want a concrete answer to the question: will the dollar rise or fall? Having such knowledge, we can guess what Russians should prepare for as soon as possible.

What factors influence the fall of the ruble

Not long ago, the MIS agency again announced about downgrading government bonds of the Russian Federation. In addition, the long-term ratings of the largest Russian banks, including Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank, and Gazprombank, were reduced from “Ba1” (priority unsecured debt) to “Ba2” (negative outlook). This information was also confirmed the day before by the well-known agency Moody’s.

The agency allocates several factors that caused the ratings to decline: the crisis in Ukraine, the rapid fall in oil prices, the collapse of the Russian currency. All these points could not but be reflected in the state of the country’s economy, which is expected to experience a significant slowdown in growth in the medium term.

We can identify several main reasons for all the negative processes currently occurring in the state. Among them:

• Financial and economic sanctions of the European Union and the United States directed against Russia after the annexation of Crimea and hostilities in Ukraine;
• A sharp drop in the price of oil as a result of its excess on the world market;
• Currency panic among Russians buying up dollars due to the rapid collapse in the value of the ruble;
• An increase in the number of countries that have decided to introduce anti-Russian sanctions after the events in eastern Ukraine;
• A sharp decline in economic relations with Ukraine, which was one of the main economic partners of the Russian Federation;
• Unfavorable economic situation within the state (collapse in the value of shares of such major corporations as Bashneft, Mechel, AFK Sistema and others);
• Additional burden on the federal budget due to the need for subsidies to Crimea;
• Mass withdrawal of bank deposits;
• Rejection of Russia's actions towards Ukraine by a number of largest and developed countries;
• The threat of a real withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the global financial system, which was mentioned several times by British Prime Minister D. Cameron.

However, in addition to negative factors, there are also positive aspects in the development of the Russian economy:

• Possibility of growth in world fuel prices in the near and medium term;
• The need to carry out significant economic structural reforms, the development of a high-tech real sector, a gradual shift away from the raw materials model of the economy, import substitution;
• There is an urgent need for actual economic reforms to replenish the federal coffers;
• Accelerated development of many industries that were disproportionately affected by the implementation of anti-Russian sanctions.

From this we can conclude that a number of factors contributing to the decline of the economy are a harsh reality, and the favorable aspects of the crisis are the embodiment of the faith and hope of Russians. So what will happen to the dollar exchange rate against the backdrop of all these political and economic realities? let's consider opinions of various experts on the question asked.

Will the dollar rate rise or fall?

We bring to your attention forecasts from several the most authoritative sources. It is extremely important that they are independent and not biased. It seemed to us that it would be wiser to listen to the opinion of banking analysts, who know all the “ins and outs” of the Russian economy, as well as to the opinion of independent economists, whose forecasts have the greatest value and reliability compared to other specialists.

Bankers about the dollar exchange rate in 2016

Analytics Department jarCreditSuisse, which is located in Switzerland, is famous for the fairly high qualifications of its employees. Experts from this respected investment department believe that in the summer of 2016 we can expect an even greater fall in the Russian currency to 82-84 rubles per US dollar. However, during the year they predict a significant strengthening of positions, which will result in a rate equal to about 73 rubles per dollar.

This assumption can be considered one of the most pessimistic scenarios for the development of events. Moreover, this forecast was compiled by bankers without taking into account the reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation up to 15%(previously this figure was 17%). The Central Bank understood that this procedure to reduce the rate would further stimulate lending. The Ministry of Finance approved such a resolution, but do not forget that key rate increase occurred solely for the sake of the need to contain the fall of the domestic currency. It is interesting to note that almost immediately after the key rate was lowered, the dollar increased in value by as much as two rubles, but returned to its previous value within a few days.

When making a forecast, bankers primarily relied on geopolitical risks Russia and the possibility of changes in oil prices. Experts from Switzerland are confident that the conflict in Ukraine will continue for some time, and also believe that the measures of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to support the ruble are not effective, since pressure on the Russian currency, as a rule, is carried out from external parties. Thus, they do not see any immediate prerequisites for strengthening the ruble exchange rate, but by the end of the year they predict a significant increase in the cost of “black gold” (it could rise to $70 per barrel). 2016 will be another difficult milestone for the Russian economy, which could fall by 4.7%.

Another authoritative bankGoldmanSachs I’m also not ready to please the public with optimistic forecasts. In the first half of the year, experts predict a fall in the exchange rate to 70 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year - a slight strengthening to 60 rubles per unit of American currency.

In total, about twenty banks around the world have made a forecast for the ruble exchange rate for 2016. The average value of the domestic currency against the dollar in mid-2016 is expected to be 63-65 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year - 60-62 rubles per US dollar.

It's interesting that forecast of inflation dynamics in the country almost completely corresponds to the estimates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which expects a peak in inflation by the middle of the year and its weakening by December 2016. However, Central Bank analysts are in no hurry to draw final conclusions: they believe that a slowdown in inflation by the end of the year is the most favorable of all possible scenarios for the development of the situation.

Experts on the dollar exchange rate in 2016

A Ulyukaev, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, believes that in 2016 the domestic currency will be at the level of 61 rubles per US dollar. Further strengthening of the ruble, according to Ulyukaev, will not happen soon: Russia will be able to reach an exchange rate of 52-54 rubles per dollar only in 2018. This year will not be the most favorable for the Russian economy: a decline is predicted, equal to 3%. According to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, economic growth in 2016 will be 2.3%, and in another year and a half - 2.5%. By the way, Ulyukaev does not in any way correlate the future strengthening of the position of the domestic currency with the increase in the cost of energy resources. He believes that the Russian economy only needs the lifting of sanctions in order to ensure a quick and reliable exit from the crisis.

But a famous independent economist named S. Demura puts forward much less optimistic forecasts about the future exchange rate of the ruble. The expert claims that in the first half of the year the ruble will collapse to a value of 82-100 rubles per dollar. Such quotes may remain until the end of 2016. Demura believes that the current “lull” is caused by certain market situations, which, unfortunately, will not last for such a long time. The expert advises Russian citizens to transfer their savings into dollars whenever possible. Demura foreshadows sudden collapse domestic currency by the end of April, but he does not dare to voice more precise dates, since the “calm” in the financial market can be broken at any moment by the most insignificant economic news.

Demura believes that the most dangerous factor hindering the growth of the Russian economy is US default, which, according to him, is inevitable. The total debt of the “states” has reached its maximum values, so it has become extremely difficult to service it, even if all the money earned is taken in the form of taxes, leaving producers without a net profit. The habit of living while drowning in debt leads to the fact that a default in the United States may happen in the near future. When this happens, the exchange rate of the American currency will skyrocket, prices for “black gold” will drop to unprecedented levels, and the countries whose main activity is aimed at export will suffer the most from this (this includes Saudi Arabia, China and Russia).

Significant problems in the state’s financial system, according to Demur, should be expected closer by the second half of 2016. They can begin if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation manages to use up all its reserves by this time, and the price of oil does not rise above $30 per barrel. It is quite difficult to make forecasts in this case, but approximately we can assume that the exchange rate will be about 200 rubles per dollar USA.

Almost all Russian and foreign analysts agree that main factor, influencing the formation of the ruble exchange rate is the cost of “black gold” on the world market. It follows from this that all moderate forecasts are based on the assumption that the current price of oil will not change its value or will change insignificantly. True, we should not forget that the oil market is unpredictable and extremely difficult for ordinary people to understand.

At the very beginning of 2014, for example, none of the world's leading analysts could even imagine such a rapid drop in oil prices, although at that time trends towards a moderate decrease in the cost of energy resources were outlined. At the present time, unfortunately, there is no reason yet for an increase in oil prices: all storage facilities are full, the volume of “black gold” production is stubbornly not decreasing, and the demand for fuel continues to grow due to the crisis situation throughout the world. For Russia the worst option developments will be a drop in oil prices to 15-20 dollars per barrel. It should be noted that some analysts do not exclude such a possibility.

Let's summarize the forecast from expert S. Demura for 2016:

• Favorable option. Under it, the current ruble exchange rate will remain until the second half of the year, and then a sharp drop in the value of the domestic currency is expected to 80-100 rubles per dollar;
• Unfavorable option. He assumes that in the second half of the year there will be a rapid drop in oil prices, as well as the depletion of all foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The exchange rate of the domestic currency in this situation will drop to 180-210 rubles per dollar. In this case, various kinds of social upheaval in the country are likely, and the entire financial and government systems of the Russian Federation will be under great pressure.

As you have already noticed, the prospects put forward by the expert in both cases do not inspire hope for an optimistic future.

What will the ruble exchange rate be against the euro in 2016?

The European economy is also in the grip of a severe financial crisis. Germany's far from favorable economic indicators once again remind us that there is a certain pattern of depreciation of the euro against the American dollar. Many analysts predict a gradual decline in the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the euro up to 65-75 rubles during 2016. This, as a rule, will be affected by foreign economic events, which at this stage are quite difficult to predict. Any forecast can change dramatically depending on various political and economic factors. In particular, for Russia, such events include fluctuations in world prices for energy resources and sanctions imposed by the “states” and the European Union.

Conclusion

Now you know how experts answer the question of whether the dollar will rise or fall in the near future. Analysts advise Russian citizens to invest their savings in foreign currency: the best option for this would be the American dollar or the Japanese yen. It is also possible to transfer your capital into euros, but this option is less reliable, because the crisis in the EU countries is dragging on and the currency is weakening every day. As for the fall of the ruble, unfortunately, it will not be possible to prevent it anytime soon. This is a rather long and difficult process, because the strength of the fall of the domestic currency directly depends on various foreign economic factors, which Russia currently does not have the opportunity to radically influence.

Due to the unstable economic situation and the recent fall of the ruble, the population is increasingly asking whether the dollar will rise or fall. If we take into account all the factors, that is, sanctions from the US and the EU, as well as jumps in the exchange rate for one barrel of oil, the answer is that the ruble will most likely fall, but not very significantly. Therefore, it is best for citizens of the Russian Federation to transfer all their free money into dollars; the most profitable solution would be to convert the ruble into a dollar deposit.

It is possible to answer the question whether the dollar will grow in Russia only after defining the very concept of currency and the parameters that make up its value.

Currency is a commodity that performs the function of determining the value of things and also serves as a means of exchange. For currency, like for any other product, there is also a “supply and demand” parameter, and the final exchange rate depends on this.

The value of a national currency in relation to the currencies of other countries is made up of the totality of goods and services produced in the country. So, for example, country “A” produces a lot of wheat for export, the cost of one unit of this produced product is much lower than the cost of an assembled car or airplane, which are produced in country “B”.

As a result, the total wealth of country A will be significantly lower than that of country B. The demand for the currency of country B will be higher than for the currency of country A, since the currency of a richer country gives greater access to various goods and services. As a result, the final exchange rate of these countries' currencies will be biased towards the richer country.

Note: a country can also artificially lower or increase the exchange rate of its currency. For example, Japan's exchange rate is greatly undervalued in order to gain competitiveness in international markets. On the contrary, the opinion of Ukrainian economists and politicians has led to the fact that the hryvnia exchange rate has risen in price disproportionately to the country’s GDP, which is why businessmen find it very difficult to export goods.

That's all the theory needed to understand exchange rates.

What will happen to the dollar exchange rate: possible scenarios

When any event occurs in the world that reduces the demand for one of the world currencies, the value of this currency falls - this has already happened with the British pound sterling after the announcement of “Brexit”, that is, withdrawal from the European Union.

The exchange rate of the national currency is also affected by the cost of goods exported by the country abroad. And this is the answer to what will happen to the dollar in Russia: the cost of 1 barrel of oil has been steadily growing recently. Consequently, there are chances for the ruble to strengthen.

But it is better to consider several scenarios in order to most accurately understand currency trends in the near future.

Height

The main reason why we can expect an increase in the value of the ruble in 2019 is the stable increase in oil prices. So, for example, from June 21, 2017, the price of one barrel of Brent oil rose from $45 to $74 - this is an increase of more than one and a half times.

Let us recall that one of the main reasons for the very strong and sharp fall of the ruble in 2015 was the collapse in oil prices. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, more than half (about 63%) of all goods exported to non-CIS countries are products of the fuel and energy complex, mainly oil and its refined products.

However, raising oil prices alone is not enough. Igor Nikolaev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, emphasized in an interview with MK: “in a situation of sanctions pressure, an unstable situation in the region and growing supply on the oil market, the ruble is unlikely to begin to strengthen.” Indeed, due to the recent lifting of restrictions on oil production in Iran, there is even more supply on the market, which negatively affects the international price of fuel.

In addition, the cost of one barrel of oil is extremely unstable: any political event, from conflicts within OPEC countries to the crisis in China, can sharply turn course in the other direction. All this leads to the final forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2019 - there is unlikely to be growth, there are too few conditions for this.

A fall

In the near future, the ruble may fall rather than strengthen. This applies not only to the ruble-dollar exchange rate, but also to the ruble-euro ratio. The reasons for this unpleasant scenario are as follows:

• Large-scale sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia were extended until January 31, 2019. This has a significant impact on trade between countries - and therefore on the total wealth of countries;
• Continuation of tough policies on the part of the United States. Although Russia believed that America's policies would soften somewhat when Trump came to power, this did not happen. Moreover, on the contrary, additional restrictions were introduced against Russian business;
• Growing demand for environmentally friendly modes of transport, primarily in China. Because of this, the demand for the familiar oil falls;
• Increased supply in the oil market - shale oil production in the United States is gradually returning to operation (in 2015-2017, shale oil production was unprofitable due to the low cost of fuel and an expensive production process). In addition, Iran is increasing its oil production rates.

For all these reasons, a disappointing conclusion is asked: the fall of the ruble is more than possible. According to Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor Nikolaev, in the most pessimistic forecast, the national currency could fall to 80-100 rubles in 2019.

Walking in the corridor

This option is also possible, albeit with some reservations. Despite overcoming the crisis of 2014 and a steady increase in the price of oil since 2017, the authorities did not strengthen the Russian ruble. Instead, the Government of the Russian Federation invested the resulting money in gold and foreign exchange reserves: from April 1, 2016 to October 12, 2018, according to reports from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the country’s reserves increased from $387 billion to $460.4 billion.

Reserves will help keep the course within reasonable limits (the so-called “price corridor”). In addition, the ruble is already much cheaper than its real value. Due to this, a sharp decrease in oil demand may not hit the Russian economy as hard as it could if we were now seeing a strengthening of the ruble.

Can the dollar rise to 100 rubles?

A number of well-known economists, one of whom we have already mentioned in the text, believe that such a scenario is possible. Here we just need to emphasize: the dollar will cost 100 rubles only if Russia finds itself in the most pessimistic scenario.

Such a strong fall in the ruble is possible if all the following circumstances coincide:

1. The United States will stop waging trade wars with China and the European Union and, on the contrary, will begin to cooperate more actively. In this case, shale oil production will inevitably increase in America;
2. OPEC countries will withdraw early from the agreement on limiting oil production;
3. The United States and the European Union will not change their tough policies towards Russia, but, on the contrary, will introduce even more economic barriers and sanctions.

But there is no need to panic: it is unlikely that all three events will happen, it is too unlikely. So far, there is not even a hint of an end to trade wars in Trump's policies. The OPEC countries, having already had an unpleasant experience in 2015-2016, most likely will not withdraw from the agreement, and the United States and the European Union in a global sense will not change their attitude towards Russia.

If we consider that Russia also has reserves, the likelihood of such a strong decrease in value becomes very small. If the ruble falls, it will be no more than to 75-80 rubles per dollar.

What's the best way to deal with money? In what currency should I store it?

Leading economists advise keeping money in three currencies: dollars, euros and rubles. However, we do not know how much the dollar will grow, and the chances of the ruble strengthening are too shaky.

That's why It is better to keep all free money that you do not have to spend even in the event of force majeure in dollars. The Eurozone is now, unfortunately, much more unstable than before: the exit of Great Britain from the European Union, the protracted crisis in Greece and Spain, political instability in France - all these factors are negatively reflected in the euro currency exchange rate. If not in the near future, then in the long term, the euro could definitely fall.

The most profitable solution to the problem is to open a deposit in dollar terms. This way you will not only save your savings from high inflation in Russia, but also compensate for the inflation of the dollar itself. An equally stable and more or less profitable option is investing in gold.

There are also alternative ways to save money, but now they are also not entirely profitable (meaning investing money in real estate, stocks and bonds). The construction boom in Russia has passed, the demand for housing has converged with supply, so prices per square meter have stopped growing at a high rate. In turn, stocks and bonds are not reliable enough assets, since companies and states cannot provide consumers with reliable price growth due to the trade wars unleashed by the United States.

That is why a dollar deposit, along with investing in gold, is the best solution at the moment.

What will happen if Russia abandons the dollar? As much as possible?

In the Russian Federation, a very noisy event was the signing of an agreement between the Russian Federation and China on settlements in national currencies. The word “dedollarization” became fashionable, and journalists began writing about the abandonment of the American currency.

In practice, the likelihood of a dollar ban, although present, is still very, very small. First of all, because the Russian Government itself needs the dollar: it is in this currency that settlements with the countries of the European Union, Africa, the Middle East and so on take place.

In addition, abandoning the dollar would lead to internal political instability: against the backdrop of pension reforms and growing discontent among the population, abandoning the dollar would mean unrest, a downgrade of the ruling party, etc. The current leadership is unlikely to take such a step.

If this does happen, the only way out of the situation will be to transfer money to foreign banks. Along with capital flight, additional problems will appear: increased bureaucratization, paperwork, tax payments to the authorities of two countries at once, and so on. But, let us emphasize, in a situation where the dollar was abandoned, this would be the only reasonable option.

Fortunately, journalists talk most about dedollarization - the Government, high-ranking officials and top officials of the administration in every possible way deny the very possibility of abandoning the American currency.

https://www.site/2018-09-12/chto_budet_dalshe_s_dollarom_i_rublem_prognozy_analitikov

Under pressure from sanctions

What will happen next to the dollar and ruble. Analysts' forecasts

Jaromir Romanov

Today the US Senate will hold hearings on new sanctions against the Russian Federation. What will happen to the ruble depends on the results of this meeting - whether it will continue to fall or begin to rise in price against the dollar and euro. Analysts' forecasts are in anticipation of this event.

“The probability of the dollar exchange rate rising above 70 rubles is high”

Sanctions pressure (discussion in the Senate of introducing restrictions on transactions with new public debt, pressure on the Russian Federation in the Skripal case, a serious aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Syria) continues to have a serious impact on the ruble exchange rate, analysts at Bank St. Petersburg state. Experts believe that the mark of 70 rubles per dollar is now an important milestone that the market will try to maintain until a new portion of negative news appears. However, the bank assesses the probability of the dollar exchange rate rising above this level as high.

“Increasing anti-Russian rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble assets”

Despite the fact that the exchange rates of the dollar and euro have decreased slightly on the Moscow Exchange (currently the American currency costs 69 rubles 46 kopecks, the European currency costs 80 rubles 52 kopecks), the Russian currency will remain under pressure amid increasing sanctions risks. This is what Denis Davydov, chief analyst at Nordea Bank, thinks. Despite the slight respite that emerging market currencies received the day before, the appetite for risky assets remains very low. The dollar has a strong position, while the issue of sanctions continues to be a big irritant for the Russian ruble.

“The strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble assets. In addition, today the US President will sign an order imposing sanctions against individuals and companies involved in interfering in the American electoral process. Taking into account the preliminary conclusions of US intelligence services, the decree will affect a number of Russian legal entities and individuals. The USD/RUB pair will continue to trade at 69-70.5,” notes Nordea Bank.

“The ruble is undervalued, but the population may cause a rush of demand for the currency”

There is growing concern among Russians about the stability of the ruble exchange rate, according to a study by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. “Owners of ruble savings are increasingly ready to protect their savings by converting them into dollars or euros, which in the future may cause a rush of demand for currency with the prospect of an even worse spiral of the crisis,” the university warns and advises the authorities to take measures to “avoid of this negative scenario."

At the same time, the university believes that the ruble is fundamentally undervalued against the dollar and in the absence of external shocks, we should have seen a strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. “We have to admit that the ruble exchange rate depends to a very large extent on the extent to which the monetary authorities will be able to curb speculative pressure on the ruble. So far, unfortunately, this has not been achieved,” the university states.

The “cure” for the ruble is improving relations with the United States

The current weakening of the ruble is associated with the risk of expanding sanctions against Russia and the general weakness of the currencies of developing countries, notes senior analyst at Alpari Roman Tkachuk. In his opinion, if tomorrow the Central Bank of Russia raises the key rate, this is unlikely to help the ruble much. “We need other “medicines” here—improving relations with the United States and stabilizing the dynamics of emerging markets,” says Roman Tkachuk. His colleague Vladislav Antonov recalls that today there will be hearings in the US Senate on the issue of Russian sanctions, and on September 26 there will be a meeting of the FOMC (US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee). But both of these important events are already included in the price of the ruble. “The factors for the depreciation of the ruble have weakened. In this regard, sellers will become more active. I believe that we will see their activity when the dollar drops below 68.85 rubles,” he notes.

“It’s not worth counting on more than 68.7-69 rubles per dollar yet”

The Russian currency strengthened against the dollar and euro yesterday. The Ministry of Finance's auction for the sale of OFZs was canceled again, the tax period is approaching, and the price of oil is rising. “However, it’s not worth counting on more than a correction of the exchange rate to 68.7-69 rubles per dollar,” believes Vadim Kravchuk, an analyst at the sales department of IFC Solid.

“We need to wait for a correction to 65-66 rubles per dollar”

Today on the MICEX the dollar is worth 69 rubles 65 kopecks, the euro is trading at 80 rubles 70 kopecks,” notes Gleb Zadoya, an expert at Analytics Online. The MICEX index rose to 2345 points, and Brent oil prices settled above $79 per barrel. “The day before, we observed a fairly logical correction of the dollar and euro against the ruble. Speculators, apparently, decided to fix part of the profits received from the latest growth. Pressure on the ruble is associated with sanctions, turbulence in emerging markets, as well as the outflow of capital from non-residents. And we still do not consider the current exchange rate as interesting for buying or selling currencies and believe that we need to wait for the rate to correct to the levels of 65-66 rubles per dollar and buy the dollar around these values ​​for the medium term,” the expert believes.

The situation in Syria may also affect the ruble

It is too early to talk about the sustainability of the ruble strengthening trend, says Andrey Kochetkov, leading analyst at Otkritie Broker. He states that yesterday the ruble showed a significant strengthening against its main competitors. At first, this was influenced by the words of the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin that the department maintained its forecast for the strengthening of the ruble to the level of 63-64 rubles per dollar at the end of the year. Then the domestic currency was supported by oil and messages from the Far Eastern Economic Forum, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in favor of striving for mutual settlements in national currencies. However, the expert recalls that there are discussions ahead in the US Senate about new restrictions for the Russian Federation, “and the situation in Syrian Idlib has a high risk of combat contact between the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the United States.”

There are many explanations for the recent attitude towards the ruble - let's look at the main ones. If the trade balance is negative, it means that money automatically flows out of the country and needs to be reprinted. And once they finish printing, it means they are pouring them into the economy by financing some projects. This is what supposedly creates the deficit. And the trade balance is negative due to the fact that China, Europe, Canada and Mexico categorically do not want to buy American goods. It is almost impossible to force them to do this. The only option is to trigger the depreciation of the dollar. And voila! Dollar inflation has become 2% per year.

Reasons for the growth of the dollar in Russia

There are several other main macroeconomic factors that have a significant impact on the national currency of the Russian Federation:

1. There is no point in hoping for an influx of investment from abroad - labor in the Russian Federation is more expensive than in China, Vietnam or Laos and Kampuchea. Therefore, the Russian Federation exported oil and gas, and so it will be.
2. In order for Russian oil and gas to be bought on the world market, the cost of their production and transportation must be quite low. And this can only be achieved by lowering the cost of an hour of labor in the country relative to the economy - the buyer of the goods. Labor in the Russian Federation will always be cheaper than in Europe and the USA. This is what we observe from the point of view of the ruble/dollar exchange rate. If they tell you about currency speculators, they are deceiving you.
3. The cost of an hour of labor is not necessarily wages. This is your ability to buy a particular product. Imported products are no longer very affordable for you, and domestic products hit the same pocket.
4. To carry out further “internal devaluation,” the government is raising gasoline prices. This will lead to a further decline in purchasing power, even without a course correction.

For the domestic market, any increase in the turnover price is bad for the consumer, since the cost increases, that is, the final price increases following the increase in fuel. Therefore, it’s all good when, following the profits of export-oriented companies, budget revenues, salaries and pensions grow, then these losses are leveled out, and then the growth of the population’s well-being increases. And at the same time, since imports are even more expensive than domestic ones, which have become slightly more expensive, this opens up not only exports, but also the domestic market for domestic producers.

But it is growing for those who still have nothing due to credit pumping. The ruble savings of those who worked before, their labor in the past, with such an inflationary model are continuously depreciated in purchasing power, and this is unfair, especially within the lifetime of one person. The meaning of honest work is completely lost in such a system. Therefore, among young people there is only interest in bureaucracy as a promising career. Corruption, kickbacks. The salary, although much higher than the average for the rest of the population, is purely a cover for dirty deeds.

Dollar growth: is Russia or the US to blame?

Those who have accumulated savings through their labor are also systematically devalued, since such a canopy of unsecured candy wrappers, in the absence of economic growth over 10 years, naturally led to a 2-fold devaluation of the ruble, and not at all ridiculous “sanctions”. So it turns out that the ruble has depreciated almost 3 times in 8 years with a “systemic approach”. 2 times against the background of the same oil at 80, exactly the same gold reserves, the same trade balance and almost 1.5 times against the background of the fall of the dollar in purchasing power, which is clearly visible in the whole range of imported goods, the prices of which jumped by about 40 -50% for 8 years, and even with a deterioration in overall quality, another “hidden devaluation”, but the latter is harder to evaluate in money, you have to be an expert in all groups.

Only oligarchs and officials who are completely above the laws and do not pay taxes are doing well (and for some reason small businesses should if they have profits in rubles from the revaluation of the currency component on the stock exchange). Systematically, in collusion with the oligarchs and bankers, they are robbing the people. Those who are poor are driven into credit bondage for many years to come, giving them loans for unsecured candy wrappers, which are taken at 7% from the Central Bank, like a machine, and issued at 14%.

If you don’t have your own economy, then printing money leads to devaluation, which is what happened in the Russian Federation over 8 years. What will we consume if the salary in dollars is 2 times less than it was? We print, the ruble exchange rate is falling even more. From the summer of 2017 to the current moment, hidden devaluation number 3 took place. Oil is 80, gold reserves are the same as in 2010, the trade balance is the same, what has changed? M2, the money supply, which almost tripled. But the economy has not grown by a single percent; on the contrary, it has shrunk in 8 years. The result is a rate of 66, instead of 33, and the average salary in dollars has fallen by 2 times. Pure mathematics.

Remember, or better yet write it down: market irrational. He is subject to emotions, unreasonable hope and no less unreasonable panic. This has been proven by a number of Nobel laureates in economics. Therefore, no one will ever make a 100% forecast about the future situation.