For a long time I have been bothered by this complete misunderstanding of economics and finance that I observe in the Russian-speaking world.

And I’m talking, first of all, about that absolutely overplayed and well-known formulation that the dollar is a green piece of paper and is about to be replaced by the yuan from China.

So, in order - Economics 101 for beginners.

1. China's currency, the yuan, or as it is also called the rainmimbi, currently does not have free circulation and cannot be exchanged for any other currency in the world according to a floating, free scheme. Those. it is not freely convertible. On the contrary, the yuan is strictly pegged to the US dollar at approximately $1 = ~6.24 yuan. If so, then the yuan cannot be considered a reserve currency. It cannot even be considered a strong currency, since it has no real market valuation, without a permanent link to the dollar. And if the dollar goes down or up, the yuan also moves along with it, remaining ~6.24. The exchange rate only changes when the Chinese make a centralized decision to increase or raise the yuan. Thus, de facto - the yuan, the same dollar, only divided into 6+ parts and with Mao Zedong on it.

2. If a state has an export economy, it desperately needs cheap currency. Cheap - that is, in relation to leading other currencies, especially from those countries where the country's exports go with a low currency. If the currency of the exporting country is expensive, then exports become expensive and profits fall. And therefore, this is precisely why China strictly keeps the yuan artificially low and at the same time tied to the dollar, since the economy of China, one of the leading export powers in the world, depends on this. A cheap currency provides its advantages for exports, but kills domestic consumption due to the fact that inflation rises and the country’s means of payment weighs too little in real purchasing power. It is impossible to have both a cheap currency for export and high purchasing power within the country. Either one or the other.

3. China's economy has recently grown at about 10-11% per year. It grew by exporting to wealthy buyers, of whom there are about 900 million people and they live 98% in developed Western countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. If these exports to these countries fall, then the growth rate decreases. This is what is happening to China now. Why are their exports falling? There are a complex of reasons here. And the quality is bad; and they only take at a cheap price; and there was a correction in the production market in the West, which made production in Western countries profitable. The logistics of China itself play a significant role. If earlier cheap slippers and nails were produced by the port cities of China, loading the goods directly onto a ship and sending them to America, now the production of the same slippers and nails in these cities has risen sharply in price. Inflation, high labor turnover, corruption make Chinese business highly turbulent and cannot remain in one place for a long time. The rise in production prices has pushed back Chinese factories to the periphery - this means adding transport, storage, and insurance to the cost of the same slippers and nails. Plus, again, the price of labor is rising even in China. They no longer work for a cup of rice. And all this means that other countries in the region, ready to work cheaper, are beginning to take this business for themselves. But China loses on this and its exports fall, as does its growth rate.

4. Knowing that growth is falling and exports are leaving, China is increasingly less willing to make its currency freely convertible. Since it will immediately rise in price by about $1 = 2 yuan. And this is almost a death sentence for exports, which, as we know, are already falling. Those. when things go badly, no one in their right mind wants to add “bad” to it and make it “even worse.” Therefore, Russian political wet dreams that a Chinese uncle will help them out by introducing the convertibility of the yuan and getting rid of the damned dollar are not supported by anything other than their complete illiteracy. China will tolerate the dollar until it equalizes the dependence of foreign exports on domestic consumption. In numbers, this means that Chinese growth will fall to somewhere around 4-5% per year, which is already very good and approximately the same as good indicators in the developed Western economies of the world. This will not happen abruptly - China does not want social unrest and therefore is gradually reducing its economy from export to domestic demand. A reduction in growth below 7% is considered dangerous and could, according to their own estimates, cause a revolution in the country's communist system. Thus, in itself, this is a smart decision in their situation, if China were not slowing down due to other reasons that I described above and which were in no way controlled by them.

5. Various barter exchanges between two countries - such as you give us slippers, and we give you cotton, or even the use of national currencies in bilateral exchange - does not change anything in the general world scheme. Since, as I said above, the yuan is not a freely circulating, convertible currency, but is a cheaper version of the American dollar. The irony is that today the Russian ruble is a freely convertible currency, but the yuan is not. But since the ruble has no potential power on a global scale, there can be no replacement of it with the dollar, or even more so, use as a world reserve currency. No matter how many barter transactions Russia makes with individual countries, only the world market matters, and not local natural exchanges.

6. There are many reserve currencies in the world today. But of these, only three are actually global and at the same time unsinkable: the British pound, the American dollar and the Japanese yen. I’ll tell you why this is so - they have free circulation and exchange. They fall and rise mainly depending on the market, and not on the whims of the state. And most importantly, the printing press of these currencies is in the hands of the Central Banks of these countries. Thus, these countries will NEVER face default. Let the currency depreciate in some terrible situations, but it will never end. More recently, the dollar was cheap as the government stimulated exports at the height of the crisis. Now that the economic steam boiler has heated up to 5% growth per quarter, which is very good, they stopped printing the dollar and it automatically rose - or became more expensive. All the enthusiastic cries of 4 years ago that the dollar was bending (getting cheaper) froze in midair, since it was a temporary measure, which the citizens, as usual, did not understand until it hit them on December 17, 2014.

7. For the next 30 years, I don’t see a single real competitor to the American dollar. China, if it wants to introduce the convertibility of the yuan, will think about it 100 times, because we read the reasons I described above. There are basically no other real currencies. The euro has generally proven to be unreliable, since it is a collective currency - and in a strongly socialist Europe, it has become like an unmanageable collective farm. I doubt that the Germans will be able to force everyone else to become like themselves. And if so, it is quite possible that some countries will be withdrawn from the Eurozone. In any case, this is a very bad scenario for the next 10 years at least. Socialism turned out to be good as long as you could spend other people's money. And now he is bankrupt.

8. Not a single world currency is backed by gold. Nothing will happen except pretentious talk about the gold standard. And this is because gold as a metal and gold as a currency have different values. I'll explain it popularly. gold coin must have a certain purity of gold and a certain, constant weight. Otherwise, it is considered a “damaged coin.” Gold as a metal has a high amplitude of price fluctuations. open market. And if we imagine a completely constant situation, that gold has risen in price and potentially a coin, say, worth $10, as metal costs $15, then it will simply be melted down and sold. If the price of gold as a metal has fallen, then panic will begin and a sharp disposal of gold coins will begin. means of payment by exchanging them for something else. Since gold is traded on the world market - no matter where it was mined and sold - the price is more or less the same everywhere. From South Africa, to Nevada, to Uzbekistan, to Australia - these are some of the main gold mining centers. And because this is exactly the case in our time - not a single sane financier will make a gold standard. Because it will bankrupt him and the country faster than the highest inflation. Therefore, Russian tricks with increasing gold reserves mean nothing and will not change even if they have 20 times more. The laws of economics are like the laws of physics and Putin does not change them.

9. Will China refuse to buy American bonds or throw accumulated American dollars onto the market in order to sell? Most likely no. The reasons are quite simple.

A. Having thrown out everything in stock, hard-earned dollars, China will exchange them at a great loss for itself.

B. While China is buying American Treasury bonds, it is not doing this disinterestedly, and not for altruistic reasons, but with a purpose. By purchasing bonds, they actually maintain afloat the level of the sales market in the United States that they need. If this level were to fall, the Chinese themselves would be the first to lose due to collapsed exports.

Q. If we imagine that they refused to finance our bonds and threw out/changed dollars, then the dollar is estimated to fall by 15-20%, which is painful, but not catastrophic. While Chinese exports immediately lose about 60% of their value in one fell swoop. is the difference visible?

D. If China wants to realize its dollar assets, the only way is to invest them in production in the very west. Or again help the American economy. They can build factories, skyscrapers, shops, roads, bridges - please, build as much as you like. But only in America - otherwise the problem is the Chinese and their avalanche paper money are only getting worse. By the way, this is precisely what explains the insane number of Chinese buyers of expensive houses and apartments in America. They have a lot of paperwork, which they thus provide with real value. And where can this be done better and more reliably than by buying multi-million dollar apartments in New York or estates in Florida? Yes, nowhere - in the world there is an acute shortage of places and ideas on where to actually invest the money you earn. And since our economy is working normally, there is no threat from these Chinese buyers - let them live happily, do business and enjoy whiskey and soda - there is enough room for everyone in America.

In the worst case scenario, won’t China forcefully threaten America with such racketeers? Therefore, having a large dollar supply, you still need to think about who got stuck more - the one who paid it or the one who accepted it for payment.

A couple of times the question was asked, what will happen if China refuses to sell its real goods “for unsecured green candy wrappers”? I'll just say:

Firstly, this will not happen. The Chinese are smart guys and will not do this - since it will be more problematic for them themselves.

Secondly, if we imagine in theory that they agreed to such a thing, then a holy place is never empty - there is a long line of people willing to occupy the niche of producing slippers and nails for US citizens.

Thirdly, if we suddenly imagine that everyone is stubborn and won’t take the dollar. And the dollar fell due to this wave of negativity and the refusal of the Chinese to finance the budget. In such a terrible case, this immediately means that the production of slippers and nails will become profitable locally in America itself, due to cheaper labor and the dollar. After all, the point here is that there have been no secrets to sewing slippers or riveting nails for the last 300 years. And if so, it means that a brand new plant for the production of these goods will be operating in America in 3-4 months. And in a year the deficit will disappear altogether. Thus, production returned to its home, everyone got a job, the dollar is growing again and, most importantly, remains within the country. The Chinese were left with a pile of green paper and wishes not to be sad.

10. I often hear that the dollar is not backed by anything. I’ll make a reservation right away - I’m not going to list the myriad of things and indicators that America produces. But this “nothing” makes up 25% of the entire world economy. And these are not Chinese-made slippers and nails for consumer goods (which is undoubtedly necessary), but mainly a high-tech production cycle, subtle high technologies, development fundamental science, pharmaceutical and chemical industries.

Let's also not forget that America spends almost $700 billion on military spending. No, gentlemen, do not rejoice - 82% of this money does not go to wars and the establishment of democracy, where it is not needed. 82% of this goes to technological developments, which have the nasty feature of migrating into civilian production for 30 years after that. That's where the internet came from, and that's where the internet came from. mobile phone. From there came new types of ultra-strong and very light alloys, which are now used in the construction of expensive skyscrapers. Therefore, investing in military crafts is a very profitable and long-term business and investment. All this “nothing” is fully appreciated and is used around the world without any remorse, since it is considered one of the best.

11. Finally, I will say about the most painful thing for the great Russian soul - the American debt. Yes, he is the creepiest and largest in face value. However, its service does not even account for 3% of US GDP in payments. Because, as I already wrote, despite all your heartfelt fears, we are not in danger of default. No matter how our Congress, in its political games, assures you of the opposite, I am sure that you, in your great wisdom, understand that in your own language this is a scam of suckers and no one will let us go bankrupt. I will also inform you that our main debt is to our own Federal reserve bank and also by our own Pension Fund social insurance, from where we borrowed certain amounts. To these two institutions of American life, our government owes about 60% of everything external debt. No, not to China and Japan, but to these very American, domestic institutions.

Ask how we will pay for it? And I'll tell you! Ready? The debt is not paid off - it is grown out of it by increasing GDP growth above inflation and above debt service costs. If at the same time we more or less balance the budget, cut unnecessary expenses, curb our dear trade unions and carry out the necessary reforms, then there will be no price for our legislators. This process is complex and slow. But I will please you - even with such a spendthrift president as Obama, the budget deficit due to sequestration has ALREADY been reduced by half. I am sure that if you sit down to work and engage not in politicking, but in calculations, work, compromise, then it is quite possible to balance the budget at zero. Well, also remove all restrictions on business and its development, reduce corporate taxes to 25% and you can see a figure of 6-7% annual growth. In this case, your debt will decrease and even a surplus will form in the treasury.

12. Collective currency or the curse of socialism.

One of the reasons for such a successful and solid position of the dollar is also that all competitors persistently show their insolvency, to put it mildly, or even if everything is quite normal, then insufficiency. There is a good Canadian or Australian dollars, but they cannot cover the whole world purely due to their numbers. There is the Swiss franc - a very stable currency, but Switzerland resists the transition to the world reserve currency with its feet and hands. Suffice it to remember how a couple of years ago, when the dollar was steadily falling, amid ceremonial toasts in Russia, everyone rushed to buy Swiss francs. The franc instantly soared on this speculation, which immediately caused a response from the Swiss government, which began to throw it onto the market in additional quantities, not in order to help those who wanted to buy it, but on the contrary, to make it unprofitable. Since I repeat once again - no one really wants expensive currency. This is the end of exports. There were exactly the same demarches and even complaints from Brazil and Argentina when their exports began to fall sharply, as the American dollar fell sharply in price and knocked their export chair out from under them.

In this situation, some in Russia are proposing some kind of collective means of payment - such as a new collective currency of either the BRIC countries or the SCO countries. Everyone verbally agrees. In practice, everyone will torpedo this initiative by any means. Since it has already been proven that a collective currency is a way to force some to work for those who will either rest or steal from the common pot. The level of corruption in all the above countries is such that the losses will be significant. Well, also knowing the sad details of the Euro, where the Germans and Dutch work hard, and the Greeks and Spaniards sip wine on the beaches and everyone shouts in unison that they are for a united Europe - I think for a long time everyone has lost the desire for a collective means of payment.

Finally, there is an interesting and almost proven theory of finance that any, in fact, world reserve currency has one serious mistake, which can only be corrected by the fact that this currency will cease to be a world and reserve currency. And this mistake lies in the fact that such countries will have chronic trade and budget deficits. It will be possible to somehow improve or correct these indicators, but these are subjective corrections. While objectively this theory works and shows that this is the main Achilles heel of any world reserve currency. And knowing about this paradox, not a single normal statesman today is at all eager to take this honorable, but at the same time terribly problematic place. As they wrote in one book, the throne of the king of the miniatures was made so awkwardly and roughly, with splinters and nails, that with all its appearance and condition it did not allow one to sit on it, or, in extreme cases, caused a lot of inconvenience and pain.

And knowing all this, you can understand why there is a lot of talk and promises. And the result is the same - the world is almost completely ruled, rules and will rule for a very long time - HIS MAJESTY THE AMERICAN DOLLAR.

In a word, don’t read Soviet newspapers and sleep peacefully. May the force and the American dollar be with you at the same time.

Comforter, Maitreya, Geser Khan, Kalki Avatar, Saoshyant...) we would like to draw attention to a report a year ago (11/26/2014) prepared by the international public movement "AllatRa" and posted on their official website in the public domain. The “Point of View” does not aim to speculate on fear, but rather to warn, because the picture, to put it mildly, is gloomy; in some places the report looks like a requiem for the passing technocratic-consumer era, which is very consonant with Islamic signs of the onset of the Day of Judgment. " About the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth. Effective ways to solve these problems" - this is its full name. You can download and read the full version. Suspicions about the involvement of Rigden Dzhappo in this sensational information are purely logical. We don’t think that climate scientists from the ALLATRA IPM out of the blue come up with horror stories in the style of Hollywood blockbusters about end of the world. In confirmation to those who have read the AllatRa book, it repeatedly points out the approach of global climate change on the planet, and therefore it is vital to change the vector of development from material, consumer, to spiritual and moral. It’s quite banal, we think, that a Bodhisattva cannot help but warn humanity about the impending disaster.

It is no coincidence that the article is included in the “Prophecies” section; it concerns events that, apparently, are predetermined to come true. In this warning, we have highlighted four points:

• The danger of a planetary-scale catastrophe in North America as a result of a tectonic continental fault in the North American lithospheric plate. Awakening of the Yellowstone caldera supervolcano...
• Danger of a planetary scale catastrophe in the Aira caldera area (Japan)
• The disappearance of the American dollar...
• Ways to overcome possible shocks.

We will certainly analyze this notorious report later, in the corresponding “Reports” section, but for now we will only touch upon one prophetic point, the message about the “fall of the world currency,” an event anxiously expected in the near future. By world currency, we hope it’s no secret to anyone, we mean the American dollar; it is on it that most of the world economy is tied. If we delve deeper into the essence of the issue, economic experts have long expressed extremely minor sentiments, predicting the greatest financial and economic catastrophe - much worse than in 1929 and 2008, which does not prevent the rest of the majority of consumers from calmly hoping that the threats are mere fantasy. People remain people, unfortunately, until the thunder strikes - the man crosses himself, blogger R. Voskresensky wrote in his article a year ago.

We cannot ignore the recent emergency statement to the American nation made by Mr. LaRouche on the eve of the New Year 2016. Who doesn't know in English, we recommend turning on subtitles, the rectangular button to the left of the “settings”. Apparently, passions are already literally running high.

It is no longer a secret that in the near future THE WORLD CURRENCY "SUDDENLY" WILL CEASE ITS EXISTENCE AND BECOME CHEAPER THAN PAPER , on which it is printed. No matter how they hide this fact, today it has already become public. It will happen suddenly, however, as always (the handwriting of the world's screenwriters is recognizable), and hundreds of millions of people not only of this leading country, but also of other countries of the world overnight they will become beggars. One can understand how difficult their situation will be in a consumer society... The collapse of the world currency will affect the entire world as a serious economic crisis. This will especially affect the population of those countries that were not prepared for it. Considering imminent global natural disasters on the North American continent in the coming decades, we are already talking about hundreds of millions of climate refugees...

Report "On the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth. Effective ways to solve these problems."

So, what brief conclusion can be drawn based on the above:

• a sudden drop in the dollar in the near future is very likely (the media have been trumpeting this for a long time);
• severe consequences for the entire global economy;
• extremely severe shocks to the population of developing countries;
• inevitable global natural disasters in North America, a possible eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano (which will lead to irreversible disastrous consequences for the flora and fauna of the Earth, as well as the death of a huge number of people);
• a possible global crisis of human relationships, which could lead to, perhaps, the most monstrous and sad thing - wars for survival.

As a result of the accumulation of negativity, “discomfort” associated with changes in living conditions and violation of “comfort” zones and personal space, patterns of selfishness are triggered and quarrels and scandals occur. Why? Because the entire system from the micro to the macro level works to separate people. In society as a whole there is no mutual understanding and love for humanity. Personal egoism, fueled by the consumer system, builds a model of a personal empire, they say, “everything revolves around me,” “it’s your problem, why should I suffer,” and so on. That is, people begin to experience aggression and hatred towards each other, instead of mutual respect and understanding of the situation, the realization that global problems cannot be resolved in a short time. And here, without a strong spiritual and moral position, without sincere love for humanity, without tolerance, patience and mutual assistance, it will be extremely difficult for people to overcome such a situation.

(as stated in the Report "On the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth")

To be honest, it is difficult to imagine how society might react to the fall of a single world currency; one thing is clear: for the absolute majority, who today have chosen life values ​​and priorities based purely on a consumer way of thinking, this will be a severe shock and the deepest stress. Just imagine for a moment that money disappeared and supermarkets closed. Unimaginable, right? But it’s quite possible, you’ll agree. We consider it our duty to declare publicly that the final part of the report talks about ways to overcome possible consequences catastrophes on a planetary scale, about solving food supply issues and about preserving moral standards in conditions of practical survival. We suspect that society is already somewhat skeptical about such statements, which is due to numerous speculations in the media about the end of the world. However, let's remain relevant and remain aware. We will not be able to survive if we do not change the ideology of world society from a consumer format of thinking to a spiritually creative one. We can't survive if we don't help establish ourselves in society priorities of mutual assistance, friendship, spiritual and moral relationships between people. Therefore, firstly, let us always remember that we are all people who are temporarily visiting Earth. Second, we all “walk under one God.” And thirdly, if the lines from the Climate Report from ALLATRA MOD really turn out to be prophetic, only a well-known saying will help us survive:

"LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOR AS YOURSELF"*

Let's make this a reality!

* - commandment given by Jesus Christ

Prepared by: Dato Gomarteli (Ukraine-Georgia)

The rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble has frightened Russians a lot. Meanwhile, completely opposite sentiments reign overseas. “Not today, tomorrow the dollar will collapse. It must collapse, it’s literally about to collapse” - in any case, this is what respected foreign economists believe, so respected that it is impossible not to believe them. At the same time, the evidence for the imminent collapse of the American currency is very convincing, even if you drop everything and run to the exchange office to get rid of the gray-green bills. But for some reason the dollar still doesn’t fall. So should we believe the financiers who cry about his imminent death? Let's try to figure it out.

The dollar will collapse! “In a matter of months, the fingers of one hand will be enough to count how much is left for this inflated dollar bubble... There will be a collapse of all monetary systems built into the American one.” This was predicted not by anyone, but by Rosneft Vice President Mikhail Leontyev. Do you believe this? And many believed. The catch is that Leontyev uttered this phrase in February 2009. And the “few months” that he allotted for the dollar to fall have long expired.

“The dollar will collapse!” - echoes Leontyev from overseas congressman Ron Paul, an old-timer in American politics. One of the most influential members of the House of Representatives, Paul, made his forecast last summer. And what? Gold never became “priceless”, as the congressman predicted, and meanwhile the dollar is already worth more than 40 rubles. So, it turns out that they are shamelessly lying to you and me?

The consequences of the dollar collapse will be fatal for Russia

It is curious that economists who predict the imminent decline of the dollar do not build their calculations from scratch. There are certain factors that confirm that the American currency has serious problems, which in the foreseeable future could lead to a collapse of the dollar. These factors are worth listing.

So, in China and Russia there is a feverish buying of gold, both countries are rapidly increasing their gold reserves. China, according to official data, has already accumulated about 1 thousand tons of the precious metal, but many economists note that the real amount of reserves may be greater - by an entire order of magnitude!

Two years ago, Russia's gold reserves were 900 tons. Today it exceeded 1112.5 tons. A gold exchange has opened in Shanghai, trading real precious metals, and not paper futures, which almost all Western exchanges have switched to trading - try buying real gold on them, and even more so, taking it outside the country in which the purchase and sale transaction is taking place ! China began to actively trade bonds denominated in yuan, and Russia almost stopped filling its gold and foreign exchange reserves with dollars and euros and transferred all settlement centers of the Russian offshore economy from America and Europe to Asia - to Hong Kong and Singapore.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the development of its own oil fields intensified, the restoration of American industry began with the massive repatriation of production previously exported to China to Mexico, as well as the purchase of millions of hectares of agricultural land in South America. Is it for nothing? This question, as a rule, is asked by those economists who promise us that there is nothing left for the dollar.

And then politicians enter into the polyphony of voices broadcasting about the collapse of the American currency. Impressed by the dire forecasts of economists, they propose to legally prohibit Russian citizens from keeping their savings in dollars. Not so long ago, State Duma deputy from the LDPR Mikhail Degtyarev came up with a similar initiative. “If the US national debt continues to grow, the collapse of the dollar system will occur as early as 2017,” the politician “encourages”. “Those countries that did not get rid of dollar dependence in a timely manner will suffer especially.” For Russia, according to Degtyarev, the consequences of the dollar collapse “could be fatal”: “In the next few years, the state will have to help Russian dollar owners, like deceived bank depositors of the 90s and victims of financial pyramids.” So there is only one way out: immediately dump the currency stored in the boxes - even if not voluntarily, but forcibly. Is not it?

The decline of the dollar is delayed... for a whole decade

But do you and I need to get rid of dollars? Not all economists are convinced that the collapse of the green economy is just around the corner. Yes, things are really heading towards the decline of the American currency as an international means of payment, but how soon will this decline come?

“The breakdown of the global economy into depression, which will manifest itself, among other things, in the form of the collapse of the dollar, is postponed for more than a decade,” the doctor of economic sciences is convinced. CEO Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin. “The first bell indicating the collapse of the US economy rang back in 2000, but the Americans managed to delay the demise of their currency.”

Delyagin talks about a 10-year deferment, other economists give the dollar a slightly longer period, but one way or another, you can forget about the rapid fall in the exchange rate of the American currency in the near future. By the way, the fact that the collapse of the dollar is being postponed should, in general, make us happy, says Mikhail Delyagin. “You should be aware that the collapse of the dollar will entail the collapse of the entire current financial system that is based on it. The opinion that the Russian economy, in the context of the collapse of the dollar, can be saved by banning the dollar is extremely naive. After all Russian ruble relies on the dollar, using it as its only collateral. And therefore, the collapse of the dollar will automatically mean the collapse of the ruble. And the ruble will collapse sooner than the dollar. Maybe the dollar will still stand, but the ruble will not,” he notes.

However, today's world is changing so rapidly that the forecast of 10 or more years of delaying the decline of the dollar may well turn out to be empty. Just a year ago, the famous economist and practicing trader Jim Sinclair, nicknamed Mr. Gold, refrained from making loud statements regarding the fall of the dollar. But now he is doing them precisely because of the dramatically changed political realities. “We are being pushed around by a group whose ideology demands the outbreak of war,” Jim Sinclair explains his change of heart. “Those who rule America today are not smart enough to admit that Russia holds all the trump cards. The petrodollar is the single most important factor existing in the global economy today, without any exception. And Russia today holds him for...”

So the fall of the dollar could happen much faster than it was planned a month or two ago, and it is no longer possible to speak with certainty about any 10-year delay - Sinclair is sure of this. Moreover, he believes that Russia today is able to turn the American economy on its head and completely destroy it. What are such scandalous allegations based on?

By introducing anti-Russian sanctions, Washington has put the petrodollar at risk

In the early 70s, US President Richard Nixon replaced the backing of the dollar with gold with backing with oil. Nixon agreed with the Arabian sheikhs that all energy contracts would henceforth be denominated in dollars. This is how the “petrodollar” appeared - a unit of payment for energy contracts. To pay for oil, consuming countries had to buy dollars. “The strength of the US currency is that you have to go to the market and buy dollars to settle energy contracts,” Jim Sinclair explains. – If the petrodollar weakens even a little, this will mean a shift in the entire force, a shift in momentum. The petrodollar is a boost to the US dollar.

And if Russia challenges the petrodollar by starting to pay for energy resources in a different currency, there will be a change in momentum and the dollar index could fall.”

If it were not for the aggravation of Russian-American relations due to the events in Ukraine, the dollar could really stay afloat for 10 years, as Mikhail Delyagin measured. But by straining relations with Moscow to the limit by introducing anti-Russian sanctions, Washington put the petrodollar at risk. And now “Russia can switch to paying for energy resources in anything - in gold, rubles, yuan or euros,” explains Jim Sinclair, “by announcing that it no longer accepts payments in dollars.

And, note, large consumers will only be pleased with this idea: they will no longer have to make currency transactions, and, therefore, energy will become cheaper due to simplified payments. Why pay in dollars when you can pay in your own currency? And the dollar will be under pressure like it has never been before. And this will entail the collapse of the petrodollar, since Saudi Arabia will inevitably follow the Russian path and begin to accept yuan, rupees and euros instead of the dollar. And the Europeans will only be happy - against the backdrop of the falling dollar, the euro will strengthen.”

Mikhail Khazin, economist:

– The foundations of the modern financial system were laid in the American town of Bretton Woods in 1944. The USSR took part in the Bretton Woods Conference, but did not ratify the agreement for a number of reasons. And therefore, at first it was a Western financial system, and then it became a global one - after the collapse of the Union. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, renamed the World Bank trade organization, are structures generated by the Bretton Woods agreements. All this was built on the basis of the dollar, taking into account control over emission system American currency. The model, built on the issue of the dollar, came to a crisis in the 70s. We managed to get out of this crisis by moving to the so-called Reaganomics, that is, credit stimulation of private demand, again with a new issue. Then the crisis delayed the collapse of the USSR. But today we have again come to a crisis - the Bretton Woods system has come to its logical conclusion. It is no longer possible to expand, because issuing dollars is no longer possible.

In general, it is fair to say that the current system will collapse. Another thing is that most of the so-called experts consider this situation from this point of view - on what day, or better yet, hour, or even better minute, will this happen, so that a minute before that you could enter the market, and a minute later you can exit and get lots and lots of money.

Regarding timing, this is a delicate question. There is an opinion that all this will happen before the end of 2015, but this opinion is based on an analysis of the words of experts and leaders of the Federal reserve system USA. I can only say one thing: this system is being destroyed before our eyes, and this is an objective process.

Ron Paul, Congressman, Representative from Texas:

“If we tried to back the dollar with precious metals or other tangible resources right now, the American medium of exchange could regain its status as the most stable currency.” If not, then the rest of the world will stop using the dollar as a global reserve currency. Under Nixon, the dollar was no longer backed by gold, and the new system allowed the United States to print money without any restrictions. This allowed the dollar, essentially backed by oil, to occupy a special place among world currencies. But then everything changed.

In 2003, Iran began selling oil to Asian and European buyers for euros. In 2008, the Iranian government opened an oil exchange on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf to trade oil for euros and other currencies. And then Tehran completely stopped oil transactions for US dollars. Such measures, taken by OPEC's second largest oil producer, became a direct threat to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Since then the situation has worsened. Asian central banks have lost their desire to buy US dollars. China, Japan and the rest of Asia are making it clear that they will not pay our debts forever. But our entire consumer economy is based on the desire of foreigners to own American debt.

Hugo Salinas Price, Mexican billionaire:

– The existence of paper currencies depends on the ability to purchase dollars for them. The paper dollar can exist as long as it can be used to purchase gold. The situation with the sale of gold today is this: those who sell it do not want to part with it. Countries sell their gold reserves, keeping the gold itself. At the same time, there are almost no people on the markets willing to buy gold “for future delivery,” even if its price is significantly lower than the cost of gold “for immediate delivery.” Previously, such a situation was also observed, but it was temporary. And now it becomes permanent. And when it becomes permanent, the end of the dollar will come. The world needs physical gold in hand at the time of payment, not promises of future deliveries.

When the economic and financial crisis hits in the US - and it must - countries will respond by printing huge amounts of paper money, because that's all they can do in such a situation. This will be the beginning of a mass flight from the dollar to gold. Gold can only be obtained in exchange for things or services. In other words, gold will again become the world's money. When will this happen? It's difficult to predict the date. It can only be noted that the world debt in paper dollars has reached astronomical proportions. After the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the global debt was not paid, but, on the contrary, grew by leaps and bounds. It is absolutely impossible to pay off this debt. Thus, the situation today is even more critical and unstable than six years ago, and sooner or later an inevitable economic and financial collapse will occur.

— Status of the world reserve currency
— What could cause the collapse of the dollar?
— What event could cause the collapse of the world currency?
— Why don’t other countries benefit from the fall of American money?
— What happens if the dollar does collapse?
- "Dollar Killer"
- Conclusion

The most frequently cited problem with the US dollar system is the potential loss of its status as the world's reserve currency. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), together with the Republic of South Africa, no longer use the dollar to pay each other. The Chinese have internationalized the yuan, which is now used in trade with other BRIC countries, as well as with Australia, Japan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran and various and African countries under bilateral agreements.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, has refused to sell crude oil in US dollars since 2009. While European countries use the euro, South American countries have established their own currency settlement system, Sistema de Pagamentos em Moeda Local, or SML. At the same time, the IMF is preparing to switch international trade to Special Drawing Rights (SDR). However, regional agreements are largely useless.

The link between the petrodollar and oil futures at the global level of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) unconditionally guarantees the US dollar with crude oil, and the US military remains the most powerful in the world. As long as OPEC countries support the US dollar, and until a real competitor appears, the US currency is unlikely to be toppled from its pedestal. The euro, for example, is a troubled currency and its future is in doubt.

China's economic recovery is likely to continue, and the yuan will be exchangeable for goods produced in that country. However, the Chinese economy is currently in recession, the yuan is not a fully international currency, and the Chinese army cannot be called the army of a superpower. Currently, no currency appears to be a viable contender for the position occupied by the US dollar, and no agreement has been reached on its eventual replacement.

However, the debate over the gold standard has moved from the margins financial world to a wide audience. The price of gold rose in response to widespread currency devaluation, that is, as a hedge against inflation. OPEC members and many other countries could perhaps return to gold if the US dollar were to lose viability, that is, if global commodity prices, and especially the price of gold, rose at an accelerated rate in US dollars.

China and Russia, for example, are large buyers of gold, and crude oil could be purchased with gold instead of US dollars under bilateral agreements, if not generally on world markets. A potential return to the gold standard is possible, but unlikely any time soon.

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— What could cause the collapse of the dollar?

To start the process of dollar collapse, three conditions must be met. First, the dollar must show its weakness. This situation is observed in 2017. The American currency is indeed weak, despite strengthening by 25% since 2014. The US dollar depreciated by 54.7% against the euro from 2002 to 2012.

American debt has almost tripled during this time, from $6 trillion. up to $15 trillion. Now the size of the debt is even greater: it is close to $20 trillion. Moreover, it is growing at an incredible rate. National debt to ratio Country's GDP exceeded the 100% mark. This fact increases the likelihood that the US government will allow the dollar to devalue so that it will be easier to pay off existing debts with cheaper money.

Secondly, there must be an alternative to the dollar in the world to carry out daily trading operations. The dollar's strength comes from its status as the world's reserve currency.

The next most popular currency is the euro. But in the world bank reserves the euro takes up less than 30%. The Eurozone debt crisis weakened the euro and undermined the currency's reserve status.

China and some other countries are declaring the need to create a new global currency. And the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, took another step forward. He said the yuan should replace the dollar in global trade to support China's economic growth. China's concerns about the fate of the dollar are understandable. The country is the largest creditor to the US and is sad to see their investment in US Treasuries dwindle.

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— What event could cause the collapse of the world currency?

These two conditions make the collapse of the dollar possible. But it will not happen without the presence of a third condition. And this third condition is a serious economic event that could undermine confidence in the US currency.

Foreign countries own more than $5 trillion. American debt. If China, Japan or other large holders of US Treasuries begin to dump these debt instruments on the secondary market, this could cause panic that will ultimately lead to a collapse of the markets.

Will China and Japan dump American Treasuries? Only if they see that the value of their investment is rapidly decreasing. The economies of Japan and China depend on American consumers. The governments of these countries know that by selling US bonds, they will reduce the purchasing power of the dollar. And that means their yuan- and yen-denominated products will become more expensive for Americans. This means that it is in the interests of China and Japan to ensure that the dollar retains its purchasing power.

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— Why don’t other countries benefit from the fall of American money?

Firstly, the US has a huge state debt, and yet they thrive. All world countries invest in the United States, since they are the main consumer of goods from these countries, America takes loans from them, and the debt bubble is gradually inflating. But there is also a downside: due to its debts, America regularly makes a profit, and its currency is in circulation throughout the planet. The economic crisis doubled the US debt, but the dollar was not significantly damaged.

The main reason why the dollar is unlikely to collapse in the near future is the fact that there is no second such competitive currency in the world. Even states that have a more or less stable currency understand that a fall in the dollar will not bring them anything good, because they are investing in the American economy.

According to economic canons, the following things work against the strengthening of the currency: an excess of imports over exports, a large public debt, a high level of issue of banknotes that are not backed by anything. If you look at the situation with these factors in the United States, it becomes clear that on all counts America is, if not in first, then in one of the first places. The extent to which the dollar is issued cannot be compared with any other currency of a developed country. Despite the negative trade balance, the United States imports the most. Until recently, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of other countries were replenished, for the most part, with dollars.

And now the situation has not changed much. Settlements on the world market are carried out in American currency. Supply of military equipment and goods own production, oil sales, etc. are also paid in dollars, although the transactions are not related to the United States. But this greatly contributes to the stability of the American currency and increased demand for it.

In addition, if the dollar depreciates, then the gold and foreign exchange reserves of almost all countries will also lose their value, their currencies will also devalue, which will again be beneficial to the dollar. There are a lot of unfavorable factors for the ruble that force it to give up its positions against the dollar, and it is so difficult for the ruble to win them back that there is no need to even talk about it.

This means only one thing - that it is useless to expect an unexpected overthrow of the dollar to rubles up to forty, or even lower. A fall in the dollar is possible if it is removed from all gold and foreign exchange reserves, but, as we have already mentioned, this will lead to a devaluation of the dollar, and, as a result, other currencies will be devalued (largely also because they simply won’t have time for most of the American money get rid of it, and this will mean even greater depreciation.

A possible reason for the fall of the dollar could only be the decision of the US President to abandon some government debts, which could push the beginning of the devaluation of the national currency, and then the dollar could reach the level of 45 rubles per unit, and even lower. In any case, quite compelling reasons are needed for a sharp fall in the American currency, and they have not yet been observed on the world market. Thus, we see that the current position of the American currency is extremely favorable, since everything in the world depends on it - the currencies of other countries and, accordingly, their economies, so they will do their best to support the dollar in a decent position.

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— What happens if the dollar does collapse?

According to him, the United States of America is the country with the largest debt on the planet. If American economy will one day collapse under the burden of her astronomical debt, the whole world will be plunged into disaster. Already in 1988, the American state, its enterprises and consumers accumulated a global debt equal to 11,400 billion dollars. It is impossible even theoretically to cover it based only on the production of specific goods.

It follows that the United States is a prisoner of a spiraling increase in debt and debt interest. If capital flows into the United States are slowed, if, for example, Japan or the oil emirs enter a phase economic crisis and stop investing their dollars across the Atlantic, America will instantly cease to be a great power. Worse, it risks dragging many other countries and peoples into the crisis.

In reality, the dollar today is a monetary unit undermined by credit and having no real backing (like the Russian ruble!). The United States failed in industrial competition with Europe and Japan. The numbers are clear: it is enough to state the amounts of industrial and budget deficit. Due to structural problems, it is impossible to improve this situation in the near future. The limits of growth have been reached: US debt has crossed a critical threshold! Interest is gradually strangling their economy!

Despite this, the United States still has a global monopoly on the currency. The dollar remains the basis of the global financial and monetary system.

The production of real goods represents economic level the only objective need that will sooner or later affect the level of the monetary system. This means that the price of the dollar compared to strong currencies and gold will fall extremely. Favorable speculation with dollar units will instantly stop at the global level.

Based on the gigantic mass of circulating dollars requiring commodity coverage, we should expect imminent hyperinflation in the dollar zone. The entire stock capital stock of the United States will then be instantly destroyed by the accumulated debt and interest on it. At the level of the real economy, this has actually already happened. The process of debt growth is steadily growing exponentially. America is inexorably approaching complete bankruptcy.

For Europe and Japan, such a bankruptcy would have the most dramatic consequences. Export potential will be reduced to zero and dollar reserves will be destroyed. Only currencies that have a stable backing in gold (about 40%) will be able to survive the collapse of this giant pyramid of loans.

The fall of the dollar means the collapse of the entire global financial and monetary system. The world of paper money will collapse at lightning speed. Will remain in stock real economy and the production of goods, on the one hand, and gold as the only true currency unit, with another. The new monetary system will be based on gold. Gold signifies complete security, complete trust, goodwill and truth.

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- "Dollar Killer"

The recently concluded BRICS summit in China presented another surprise for the global financial system. The five countries will develop their own cryptocurrency, capable of displacing the Western blockchain Bitcoin, and with it the dollar as a global reserve currency. BRICScoin will become a tool in the already begun process of transition to national currencies in circulation between the BRICS countries in the virtual sphere.

Following the results of the summit, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, spoke about this in relation to the organization of global trade and financial regulation. BRICSCoin is planned to be developed on the basis of Russian cryptocurrency created using domestic cryptography, and issued within the BRICS Development Bank. According to the director of the RDIF, this will increase mutual investments by 3-4 times.

According to American analyst Adam Harry from Global Research, the BRICS cryptocurrency may turn out to be the same prophetic “dollar killer” that economists have been talking about since the financial crisis of 2008. In any case, with coverage of 40% of the world's population, BRICScoin awaits the fate of a new world currency and reliable protection of its issuers from international sanctions.

The advantage of the new cryptocurrency in the game against the dollar is the lack of control from central banks, since in this case it is not subject to US financial sanctions. The advantage of BRICScoin over Bitcoin is the combination of flexible cryptocurrencies with support from the leaders of the trade and economic bloc, which will provide more confidence to traders.

As an exchange rate, the expert suggests taking derivatives of the IMF non-cash currency SDR, or the so-called “special drawing rights” (SDR). Initially, this was a proposal from China, which back in 2009 initiated the creation of a reserve substitute for the dollar based on the SDR. However, after this, the IMF promptly introduced the yuan into its own basket of reserve currencies, and since then this issue has not been raised at the official level.

However, over the years, China, together with Russia, has taken new steps to weaken the hegemony of the dollar. In particular, a transition to national currencies has been made in trade with the Russian Federation, and currently preparations are being made to trade oil in yuan, allowing their gold conversion for international exchanges Shanghai and Hong Kong. Thus, BRICSCoin receives a reliable gold-oil cushion and a large market with access to the “BRICS plus” format.

It is no secret that Bitcoin was developed by the CIA under the plausible pretext of electronic control over circulation Money to prevent the financing of criminal activities. In fact, with the help of new virtual means, the United States intended to control other people's economies. The development of BRICScoin will end the monopoly of American cryptocurrency and protect national markets.

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- Conclusion

The fall of the US dollar is probably the most common topic in economic circles. Analysts predicted its fall at the beginning of 2016, but these forecasts never came true. Then they moved this date to 2017, but it is already coming to an end, and in this regard little has changed.

It is worth noting that experts have differing opinions on this issue; some argue that the dollar will soon collapse and this will lead to a global crisis. Others are confident that this is nothing more than speculation and the dollar exchange rate will only strengthen its position in the future.

In any case, you should protect yourself. Be prepared for anything, and a crisis will never take you by surprise.

The material was prepared by Dilyara specifically for the site

Fall on Thursday against the major currencies against the backdrop of yesterday's statement by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he supports the weakening of the US currency. As analysts note, the American authorities have broken the long-standing tradition of supporting a strong dollar exchange rate under any circumstances.

However, Donald Trump's "America First" trade policy has reversed this trend. Thus, the dollar bears received a signal, which they immediately took advantage of. In addition, as Expert Online previously wrote (the dollar exchange rate was predicted to collapse), the day before The Wall Street Journal published an article noting that the dollar exchange rate remains overvalued by 10% and in order to achieve Trump’s goals of eliminating the US trade deficit of 500 billion dollars will require a significant depreciation of the US currency from current levels.

However, the White House tried to somehow calm the markets, saying that the administration was in favor of a “stable” dollar, but it was too late. Analysts were quick to call the dollar “stable weak” at the current stage.

The dollar exchange rate fell sharply on all fronts on Wednesday after Mnuchin's statement. On Thursday, the decline in the US currency slowed down somewhat.

However, key currencies continued to reach new highs against the dollar. The dollar index fell to 88.87 (the lowest since November 2014). The euro exchange rate rose to three-year highs - $1.2425, the yen rose to four-month highs - 109.105 per dollar.

A number of commodities are also growing on a weak dollar. Gold rose to its highest price since August 2016 in trading on Thursday.

As of 9.44 Moscow time, the price of February gold futures at New York Stock Exchange Comex increased by $8.6, or 0.63%, to $1,364.9 per troy ounce. The price of March silver futures rose by 1.06% to $17.68 per ounce.

Oil jumped to $71 a barrel in Brent.

“Last week the dollar was under pressure from expectations that the European central bank and the Bank of Japan are normalizing monetary policy, but the bearish trend has entered a completely new phase after Mnuchin's comments,” Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo, was quoted as saying.

Today, markets will focus on the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, who is expected to have to put on the brakes on plans to normalize monetary policy to avoid excessive strengthening of the euro. But this may not help.

"Some players will probably lower their long positions in euros if the ECB shows concern about the strength of the euro.But even such comments will likely not be enough to stop the continued weakening of the dollar,” Ishizuki of Daiwa Securities said in comments to Reuters.

The ruble exchange rate also caught the wave on world markets.

At 10.11 Moscow time, the American dollar decreased by 17 kopecks - to 56.01 rubles. The euro fell by 5 kopecks to 69.57 rubles.

Since Thursday morning, the dollar has already fallen in price to 55.97 rubles. This is the minimum since last spring 2017.