Abstract on economic theory student group 313

Lyakhov Anton Borisovich

Moscow State University named after. M.V. Lomonosov

Chemical faculty

Moscow, 1998

Main provisions of the hypothesis

N. D. Kondratieva on the existence of large cycles of economic conditions

N. D. Kondratyev analyzed the dynamics of changes in the following indicators from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century:

A) in England: prices, interest on capital, wages of agricultural and textile workers, foreign trade, production of coal, iron, lead.

B) for France: prices, interest on capital, foreign trade, coal consumption, oat sown area, French Bank portfolio, deposits in savings banks, consumption of cotton, coffee, sugar.

B) in Germany: coal and steel production.

D) in the USA: prices, production of coal, iron and steel, number of spindles in the cotton industry, cotton acreage.

D) world production of coal and iron.

Production and consumption indicators are not general, but per capita.

After processing the obtained curves of the dependences of these indicators on time using the methods of mathematical statistics, well-defined cycles of economic dynamics with a length of 48 - 55 years were discovered. On the vast majority of curves, these cycles are clearly visible without any mathematical processing. The periods of fluctuations and the main (upper and lower) points of the dependence curves of different indicators coincide (±3 years).

Table 1.

Chronology of large cycles of economic dynamics according to Kondratieff (compiled in 1925).

Kondratiev also made 4 important observations regarding the nature of these cycles - “4 empirical correctnesses”.

First observation.

Before and at the beginning of the upward wave of each long economic cycle, there are profound changes in conditions economic life society. These changes are expressed in significant changes in technology (which in turn are preceded by significant technical discoveries and inventions), the involvement of new countries in world economic relations, changes in gold mining and monetary circulation.

Second observation.

The periods of the upward wave of each major cycle account for the greatest number of social upheavals (wars and revolutions).

Here is a list of the most important events.

I upward wave: The Great French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, the Russian war with Turkey, the American War of Independence.

I downward wave: the French Revolution of 1830, the Chartist movement in England.

II upward wave: revolutions of 1848-1849. in Europe (France, Hungary, Germany), Crimean War 1856, Sepoy Rebellion in India 1867-1869, American Civil War 1861-1865, Wars of German Unification 1865-1871, French Revolution 1871 ..

II downward wave: the war between Russia and Turkey 1877-1878.

III upward wave: Anglo-Boer War 1899-1902, Russo-Japanese War 1904, first World War, the revolutions of 1905 and 1917 and the Russian Civil War.

It is clearly seen that the social upheavals of upward waves far exceed those of downward waves, both in the number of events and (more importantly) in the number of victims and destruction.

Observation three.

The periods of the downward wave of each major cycle are accompanied by a long and especially pronounced depression in agriculture.

Fourth observation.

During periods of an upward wave of a large cycle, average capitalist cycles are characterized by the brevity of depressions and the intensity of upswings; during periods of a downward wave of a large cycle, the opposite picture is observed.

Table 2.

Brief ups and downs against the backdrop of Kondratieff’s “long waves.”

Although Kondratiev considered a period of 140 years (only 2.5 wavelengths of a large cycle), he concludes that the presence of such cycles is very likely, and their existence cannot be explained by random, incidental quantities. In his opinion, their causes must be sought in the features inherent capitalist system farms. However, when constructing an explanation of the reasons for the presence of such cycles, he encountered very great difficulties. It makes sense to present his hypothesis about the causes of these cycles in full.

“The duration of functioning of various created economic goods and productive forces is different. Equally, their creation requires different times and different means. As a rule, the main types of productive forces have the longest period of operation. They also require the most time and the most accumulated funds to create them.

Hence the necessity for economics of the concept of various types equilibria in relation to different periods of time (see equilibria of short and long periods in Marshall).

Large cycles can be viewed as disruption and restoration of economic equilibrium over a long period. Their main reason lies in the mechanism of accumulation, accumulation and dispersion of capital sufficient to create new basic productive forces. However, the effect of this main cause enhances the effect of secondary factors.

In accordance with the above, the development of the large cycle receives the following coverage.

The beginning of the rise coincides with the moment when the accumulation and accumulation of capital reaches such a tension at which it becomes possible to profitably invest capital in order to create basic productive forces and radical re-equipment of equipment.

The beginning of an increase in the pace of economic life, complicated by industrial-capitalist cycles of medium duration, causes an intensification of social struggle, the struggle for the market and external conflicts.

During this period, the rate of capital accumulation weakens and the process of dispersion of free capital intensifies. The intensification of these factors causes a change in the pace of economic development and its slowdown. Since the effect of these factors is stronger in industry, the turning point usually coincides with the beginning of a long agricultural depression.

The decrease in the pace of agricultural life determines, on the one hand, an intensification of searches in the field of improving technology, and on the other hand, it restores the process of accumulation in the hands of financial-industrial and other groups, largely at the expense of agriculture.

All this creates the preconditions for a new rise in the great cycle, and it repeats itself again, albeit at a new stage in the development of the productive forces.”

It should be mentioned that Kondratiev’s hypothesis was subjected to severe criticism in the USSR. His opponents tried to challenge the existence of “long waves” in the dynamics of many indicators, biasedly using methods of mathematical statistics. If the presence of “long waves” in the dynamics of any indicator was undeniable, then the explanation for the presence of such oscillations was derived from earlier works of other scientists, in particular, from the works of M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky (see).

It is quite obvious that the criticism of opponents was not directed against the concept of “long waves” as such, but personally against the author.

Development of ideas of N. D. Kondratiev.

Over the time since 1925, many new facts have been discovered confirming the existence of “long waves” in the economy, primarily their presence in the development of the economy during the 20th century. During the same time, a huge number of theories were proposed to explain their existence. There are 9 groups of such theories. They will be briefly listed below in this form: a short name of a group of theories, showing their meaning, and the names of the scientists who put forward these theories.

Table 3.

Classification of theories explaining the existence of large cycles of Kondratiev’s economic conditions.

Group of theories	Scientists' names
1	Marxist theories	P. Baccarat, L. Fontvieille, E. Manuel, D. Gordon
2	Innovation theories	J. Schumpeter, S. Kuznets, G. Mensch, A. Kleinknecht, J. van Dyne
3	The theory of overaccumulation in the capital sector	J. Forfester
4	Theories related to labor	K. Friedman
5	Price theories	W. W. Rostow, B. Berry
6	Integration approach and monetary concepts	J. Delbeke, P. Korpinen, R. Batra
7	Sociological explanations and cycles of class struggle	C. Perez-Perez, I. Mylendorfer, E. Screpanti, M. Olsen, S. Wiebe, J. Gatten, B. Silver, W. Weindlich.
8	War cycle theory	J. Goldstein
9	The theory belonging to the authors of the book. It can be characterized as complex, gravitating towards Marxist

Due to the abundance of theories, it will be necessary to abandon, as a completely unrealistic task within the framework of this work, at least a brief summary of the essence of each theory. It is quite obvious that their number is beyond reason.

In many of these theories, an attempt is made to derive an explanation for the existence of long Kondratiev waves from the fluctuations of one parameter taken as a basis by the authors, and the authors explain the fluctuations of the parameter taken as a basis in an arbitrary way. As a rule, a satisfactory explanation for fluctuations in a “primary” parameter (for example, the number of scientific discoveries, inventions and technical improvements in innovative theories) cannot be given while remaining within the framework of economic science, and the authors of theories go beyond their framework with extreme uncertainty and usually do not advance beyond speculative philosophy .

Below we will examine one of these theories and show the blatant unconvincingness of the explanation for the causes of long-term fluctuations in the “primary” parameter, which in the example under consideration is the number of discoveries, inventions and technical improvements made (innovation theories).

The authors of some of these theories have proposed a hypothesis according to which an increase in the number of innovations and the intensity of their implementation is caused by a worsening situation in the economy, which supposedly stimulates inventors to be more active in their business, and entrepreneurs to invest money in introducing innovations. This position is highly controversial.

It is known that investing money in the implementation of innovations, especially fundamental ones, is very risky, and an entrepreneur, in order to invest in such projects, must have excess funds, the loss of which would not lead to his ruin. It is obvious that during periods of deteriorating economic conditions, the amount of excess funds entrepreneurs have is, in any case, no more than in favorable periods, and in a bad market, the entrepreneur’s readiness for risky investments is also unlikely to be higher than in a good one. In unfavorable periods, it is only possible to increase the rate of implementation of minor technical improvements, which do not require very large costs, but give a quick effect in the form of cost reduction, and in no case an increase in investment in radical re-equipment of equipment.

The worsening economic situation is also unlikely to stimulate an increase in the activity of inventors. In fact, the profession of inventor as such did not exist at all before the 20th century, and only in the 20th century did a targeted search for new technical solutions and organizations such as design bureaus, staffed by relevant professionals, appear. Before this, invention was carried out by people of other professions with a creative mind, in their free time from other activities. But in order to extract income from his invention, the author still needed to bring information about it to the attention of people with free capital and encourage them to invest money in its implementation. This matter was extremely difficult and did not always end in success. In addition, there was a very high risk of attribution of authorship of the invention to another person. (There were, however, cases when the authors of inventions managed to find the required funds on their own, create their own companies and achieve commercial success, but this was very rare). From the above, it is obvious that inventive activity required a lot of effort from the author and did not always bring him income, and more often - great trouble.

Thus, the well-known truth has not been refuted that the main reason for any creative activity is the internal need for creativity. Of the factors related to the economic situation, the only thing that matters is whether the potential inventor has a source of livelihood and free time.

It can be assumed that during an economic downturn, potential inventors have more free time due to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in employment during this period. However, the authors of innovation theories did not conduct a corresponding study of statistics. In addition, whether a potential inventor has a source of livelihood is no less important than having free time. An unemployed person, that is, a person who, until the 20th century, had no income at all, cannot fully engage in creative activity, especially considering that in the vast majority of cases he was also forced to take care of his family.

Thus, it is obvious that the explanation for the presence of long-term fluctuations in the number of discoveries, inventions and technical improvements made in innovation theories is unconvincing and is based on the methods of speculative philosophy.

Other theories also have similar defects: price theories, the theory of overaccumulation in the capital sector, etc. These theories, apparently, can be considered at least one-sided.

Complex theories have also been created, however, here too there is a need to go beyond the scope of economic science, since in the long term, apparently, it is impossible to consider the development of the economy without considering the development of the society that creates this economy to satisfy its needs. Probably for this reason, the success of the authors of such theories in explaining the existence of “Kondratiev cycles” is still very relative.

Separately, it should be said about the theory of military cycles by J. Goldstein. Although he was unable to offer a convincing explanation for the existence of large cycles in economic development, he noted and analyzed very important facts.

Since satisfactory economic statistics have existed only since the end of the 18th century, and then not for all important parameters, the authors of “economic” hypotheses were extremely limited in statistical material. J. Goldstein, considering primarily wars and their consequences as the main factor in the existence of “long waves” in the economy, bypassed this limitation, since statistics of wars, their victims and destruction are available for the last few millennia. (Military power can well be considered as an indicator of economic power, since maintaining a strong army and waging wars has always been extremely expensive, and it is possible to wage a war at the expense of the enemy only after the first - and very large - victory, achieved only on one’s own).

He assessed the intensity of wars not by the number of wars themselves, but by the number of victims and destruction they caused. Even N.D. Kondratiev noted the clearly expressed repeatability of large-scale wars in the upward phases of “long waves.” Such a clear recurrence of wars was traced by J. Goldstein back to 1500 (!). He apparently considered it unnecessary to examine even earlier data, but still, quite definite conclusions can be drawn from his observations.

J. Goldstein actually confirmed the presence of “long waves” in the development of the feudal formation. If this is true (which is very likely due to the convincingness of the data he presented), then almost all theories of long waves turn out to be untenable, since they are based on the laws of capitalist economics, which do not work in a feudal formation. Innovation theories are also not suitable due to the almost complete absence of large-scale innovations in the 16th - 17th centuries. (All the important inventions used at this time, such as gunpowder, firearms, the compass, metallurgical processes, printing, etc., were made in a much earlier period). For example, theories that assign a significant role to the world market are also not suitable, since in the 16th - 17th centuries it was also in its infancy.

In connection with the above, it makes sense to strictly (not using the methods of speculative philosophy) consider the assumption according to which “long waves” may have no economic nature, and “long-wave” cycles in the economy are consequences of some other processes.

To clarify this possibility, it is necessary to involve the latest achievements of other sciences, primarily sociology and ethnology.

The theory of ethnogenesis and an alternative hypothesis about the nature of Kondratieff’s long waves.

Since the theory of ethnogenesis, created by the Soviet scientist L.N. Gumilyov, is new (created in the 70s - early 80s of the XX century) and is still unknown to many, it is necessary to outline its foundations before starting to present the author’s hypothesis about the nature of “long Kondratiev waves." It is presented in an extremely primitive manner and in a sequence dictated by the task facing the author.

Fundamentals of the theory of ethnogenesis.

It is well known that there are ethnic groups that are, in principle, incapable of independent development. These are the Papuans, the peoples of the Far North, most American Indians and some others. Moreover, each individual member of such an ethnic group is a fully-fledged person physically and intellectually. Thus, the ability to develop is not an inherent ability of an ethnos. The criterion for the development of an ethnic group is its relationship to the surrounding landscape. If an ethnic group purposefully transforms the landscape, it develops; if it does not transform the landscape and is in balance with the environment, then it does not develop.

Having gone through many hypotheses explaining this state of affairs, L. N. Gumilyov came to the following conclusions. It is obvious that a person exists due to the chemical energy he absorbs with food from the environment. Then people according to their “energy characteristics” can be divided into 3 categories: harmonious type (the vast majority of people), energy-excessive type (passionaries), energy-deficient type (subpassionaries) (compared to the biological norm of energy consumption). It can now be considered established that the level of absorption of biochemical energy from the environment is a hereditary trait. Passionaries are a factor in the development of an ethnos. (It should also be noted that there is a hypothesis according to which passionarity (the ability to purposefully overextend) is not due to increased absorption of biochemical energy from the environment, but with equal absorption, the release of most of this energy in the form of purposeful work. But this is not important from the point of view of the task at hand. The existence of people capable of long-term, purposeful superexertion, as well as the fact that a relatively small number of people have this ability, are established facts and not subject to revision. Many facts accumulated over the long history of mankind cannot be explained otherwise than by the fact that this symptom is. hereditary and recessive).

Any deviation from the norm in the absorption of biochemical energy reduces vitality. Subpassionaries are not viable, since their energy is below the biological norm, and passionaries die, on the contrary, due to excessive activity. Natural selection should lead to the fact that ONLY harmonious people will remain in the population. Such populations (ethnic groups) are incapable of development, and it is they who are represented by peoples such as the Papuans or Australian aborigines.

For history, the ratio of people of the three indicated types is important, because this ratio determines the picture of the behavior of the entire ethnic group as a whole. First of all, the ratio of the number of passionaries to the total number of people is important. This relationship can be fairly accurately assessed from the data of historical science, although the methodology for such an assessment is far from simple, and, for example, a large number of “great deeds” visible to history may correspond to both a rise in the level of “passionary tension” and its decline.

From historical data it is clear that from time to time individual regions planet there is a rapid and sharp increase in the number of passinaria, which can only be explained by massive micromutations under the influence of some external factors (these factors are known, we do not consider them). This is manifested in the activation of the peoples inhabiting a given region, which is expressed in wars, the formation of large states, etc., etc. Then, due to natural selection, the number of passionaries decreases, and in the end they disappear from the population altogether. In history, this manifests itself mainly as the destruction of large states and the conquest of their neighbors, in general regression, and in many other ways. Often there is a collision of two or more different passionate populations that arose from different micromutations (“passionary shocks”), which creates unique historical collisions.

From micromutation to the complete disappearance of passionaries from the population, 1200 - 1500 years pass, which constitutes a full cycle of ethnogenesis (therefore, the maximum lifespan of imperial-type structures is approximately 1200 years).

And the most important thing from the point of view of the task at hand: in addition to a large cycle of about 1500 years, the relative number of passionaries is subject to fluctuations with a “wavelength” of 50 to 100 years. This is explained by the fact that the gene responsible for this trait is apparently recessive (that is, it does not manifest itself in the form of a corresponding trait in every carrier). Therefore, after, for example, a difficult war, during which the passionaries die first, their numbers are noticeably reduced, and then gradually restored due to the offspring of latent carriers of this gene, in which the trait manifests itself in explicit form. After 2-3 generations, as a result, the activity and aggressiveness of the ethnic group increases again, wars and social upheavals occur again, and the “small passionary cycle” repeats again.

Those for whom this theory in such a crude and primitive presentation does not inspire much confidence are recommended to read the original works of L.N. Gumilyov, first of all. There is currently no alternative theory that explains the entire course of the historical process as plausibly.

It is noteworthy that a mechanism approximately similar to the “small passionary cycle” was proposed by J. Goldstein in his theory of military cycles. In his interpretation, it looked something like this: economic growth - increased competition and contradictions - war - devastation, economic recession, restoration - economic recovery - a new intensification of the struggle - new generations have already forgotten about the horrors of wars, and again they organize new wars - recession, devastation - ... and so on. However, the author was not familiar with the passionary theory of ethnogenesis, and this made his constructions look naive and largely “hung in the air.” The theory of ethnogenesis was precisely the missing link in his hypothesis. The upswings of large economic cycles then correspond to a high number of passionaries, and the downturns to a low number.

The presence of certain features of the “small passionary cycle” can be noted in many theories listed above in table. 3. For example, J. Schumpeter considers one of the main factors in the existence of “Kondratieff’s long waves” to be the division of entrepreneurs into “leaders” and “gray masses”.

On the issue of innovation:

Many have noted the emergence of a large number of innovations (major discoveries and technical inventions) and their active implementation in life during periods of recovery in a large economic cycle. It is clear that the activity of entrepreneurs, and therefore their attitude towards technical innovations and their willingness to invest money in them, should be related to the level of “passionary tension” of society. Likewise, major discoveries and inventions are made and “pushed”, as a rule, by active and active people, that is, also by passionaries.

The obvious question is why, in fact, the “small passionary cycle” is similar among different peoples - the French, the English, the Germans? The fact is that in addition to ethnic groups, there is a taxonomic unit of a higher order, the ethnic world - a superethnos (integrities of this type are also called “civilizations”, “worlds” or “cultures”). All European peoples and those descended from them (for example, the Yankees, Australians and others) belong to one superethnos, which until the 16th century had the self-name “Christendom”, and from the 17th century to the present day - the “civilized world”. All these peoples were “formed” by one “passionary impulse”, and the synchronicity of the rhythm of development of England, France, Germany and other Western European states is quite natural.

It should be noted that when creating the theory of long waves, Kondratiev and his followers operated only with data from developed capitalist countries, that is, countries belonging to the “civilized world.” Thus, Kondratieff’s cycles most likely correspond to fluctuations in the “passionary tension” of the Western European super-ethnic system.

If we consider the economic development of, for example, Russia (another super-ethnic system) for the 18th - 20th centuries, then all researchers without exception noted that it does not fit into Kondratiev’s cycles at all. For example, the “Kondratieff” recession from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896 occurred during a fairly rapid Russian economic recovery, during the reign of Alexander III, and during Great Depression In the 30s of the 20th century, the pace of economic development in Russia was the highest in its entire recent history.

The essence of the proposed hypothesis explaining the existence of “Kondratiev long waves” in the development of a capitalist economy is that long-term fluctuations in economic conditions (Kondratiev long waves) are associated with fluctuations in the level of “passionary tension” of the Western European super-ethnic system (which also includes the USA and some other non-European countries). Relatively high level“passionary tension” corresponds to the high activity of the ethnic groups that form the superethnos, which is expressed in economic growth, faster scientific and technological progress and a significant increase in the pace of socio-political life (including the number of social upheavals: wars and revolutions). During periods of low “passionary tension” the opposite picture occurs.

conclusions

The theory of “large cycles of economic conditions” by N. D. Kondratiev and the hypotheses explaining their existence are considered. It is shown that despite the very large number of such hypotheses, they do not pretend to be Full description and an explanation for this phenomenon.

It has been suggested that large cycles of economic conditions are a consequence of processes of a non-economic nature, and on the basis of this assumption, using the latest achievements of sociology and ethnology, an alternative hypothesis has been constructed to explain the phenomenon of the existence of such cycles.

Bibliography

Kondratyev N. D. “Problems of economic dynamics”, M., 1989.

Menshikov S. M., Klimenko L. A. “Long waves in economics. When society changes its skin", M., 1989.

Gumilyov L. N. “Ethnogenesis and biosphere of the Earth”, M., 1994.

Gumilyov L. N. “Ethnosphere: the history of people and the history of nature,” M., 1993.

The theory of cyclicality is not limited to the study of traditional business cycles and structural crises. Economic science distinguishes economic cycles of significantly longer duration than 7-12 years.

The cycles of S. Kuznets are known to last 16-25 years. This is the so-called construction cycle, identified in the third years of the 20th century. based on the construction of statistical indices of the total annual volume of housing construction. Analysis of statistical data made it possible to detect successive long intervals of rapid growth and deep declines. In the monograph “National Income” published in 1946, S. Kuznets (1901-1985) very convincingly proved that in construction 20-year fluctuations have the greatest repeatability. In recognition of the achievements of the American economist, it was decided (1955) to replace the term “construction cycle” with the term “Kuznets cycle”, or “long fluctuations”.

However, the greatest interest in recent years has been generated by “long waves” in the economy lasting 40-60 years. These cycles entered the economic literature as “large” or “long Kondratiev waves”, named after the Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938), who first described this phenomenon in 1922.

In the 1920s, while studying the development of the economic situation in our country, Kondratiev made economic comparisons of a number of indicators characterizing the development of our economy with the dynamics of the world capitalist economy. Research in this direction led him to develop the concept of “long waves” of capitalist reproduction. Having summarized the vast statistical material since the end of the 18th century. (dynamics of the average level of commodity prices, interest on capital, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover, coal production and consumption, production of cast iron and lead in England, France and the USA), Kondratiev proved that, along with the long-known small cycles of capitalist reproduction (duration 8-10 years) there are large reproductive cycles of average duration - 48-55 years.

The theory of long waves was not in demand until the 70s of the 20th century. Under the influence of socio-economic upheavals caused by worsening oil and raw materials problems, economic thought turned to the theory of long waves.

In long cycles, N. Kondratiev identified two phases, or two waves - upward and downward. The first cycle - from 1787-1792. until 1810-1817 (upward wave) and from 1810-1817. until 1844-1851 (downward wave). Second cycle - from 1844-1851. until 1870-1875 (upward wave) and from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896. (downward wave). Third cycle - from J890-1896. until 1914-1920 (upward wave). And from 1920 to 1940 (downward wave). According to his calculations, the next, fourth, large cycle was supposed to begin in the late 40s and continue until the early 70s. An upward wave was expected, and from the early 70s to the mid-80s -
downward wave. The transition from the downward wave of the fourth cycle to the upward wave of the next, fifth, large cycle should, according to these calculations, occur in the early 90s, and the highest point of the upward wave of this fifth cycle will be reached in the first decade of the 20th century.

Based on rich factual material, N.D. Kondratiev showed that for about two decades before the start of the upward phase of the cycle, there was a revival in the field of technical inventions, and then during the years of economic recovery, their widespread use.

Kondratiev's theory is very interesting in historical and socio-economic plans. He, in particular, showed that periods of upward waves are much richer in social upheavals in the life of society than periods of downward waves, that the boundaries of “large cycles”, i.e. turning points in their development usually coincide with qualitative shifts in international economic relations, in the conditions of monetary circulation, are accompanied by changes in the place of individual countries in world economic life, etc.

As the practice of developing the world economy has shown, Kondratieff cycles reliably predict the development of social reproduction. In this regard, it is no coincidence that the theory of “long waves” has been adopted in many countries of the world, and a very respectful attitude towards long cycles has become fully established in foreign socio-economic literature. A number of international conferences were devoted to this theory in the 80-90s, as a result of which it was concluded that there is a law of cyclicity as a unified form of development of natural and social processes, and patterns of social and economic nature cannot be understood without taking into account the influence natural-ecological cycles, their synchronization and interaction. That is, on the basis and development of the ideas of N.D. Kondratiev, an actually new paradigm of cyclicity is currently being formed.

Along with Kondratiev, the theory of “long waves” was fruitfully developed by the Austrian economist I. Schumpeter. In his work " Business cycles"(1939), he substantiated the concept according to which the main driving force of long-term fluctuations in the capitalist economy is the wave-like dynamics of technical and technological innovations. Being a follower of N.D. Kondratiev, Schumpeter at the same time created an integral concept of “long waves” with specific justifications and conclusions.

As for the reasons for long cycles in the economy, several points of view can be distinguished. Most economists consider the period of reproduction of the passive part of fixed capital with a long service life as the main reason for long waves. N.D. Kondratiev identified the “investment cycle” as the fundamental basis of long waves. For the long cycle of the early 90s, the starting points are cybernetics, genetic engineering, new chemistry, synthetic fuels, investments in aircraft manufacturing, and agriculture. The American economist W. Rostow called change

changes in prices for raw materials and food, which lead to significant changes in the structure of the economy and price proportions. The reasons for long waves are also the renewal of the entire market economy system, radical changes in the birth rate and mortality rate of the population, migration processes, etc.

In general, “long waves” cannot but have a significant impact on traditional industrial cycles. If a crisis erupts during a downward wave of a large cycle, this will predetermine its deeper and more protracted nature, just as an upward wave of a large cycle will ease and reduce the hardships of the traditional cycle.

Long-term cycles (long waves) in the economy

Long-term cycles (long waves) in the economy express long-term fluctuations in business activity. Their existence was noted by the English economist Jevons, as well as M. Tugan-Baranovsky, K. Kautsky,

V. Pareto and other scientists. Certain aspects of long cycles have been studied for more than a century. One of the first researchers of this economic phenomenon was the English economist Jevons. The creation of the scientific theory of long waves is rightly associated with the name of the Soviet scientist N.D. Kondratiev, who in the early 20s published a number of important studies on this problem, in which he practically carried out a multifactorial analysis of the economic development of Great Britain, France and the USA for 100-150 years. The theory of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev had a significant influence on the development of this area of ​​scientific research. Subsequently, the theory of long waves was developed in the works of such famous scientists as I. Schumpeter, S. Kuznets, K. Clark, P. Samuelson. However, this does not in any way detract from the scientific contribution of M. Kondratiev. Recognition of this is the name of long waves in economics as “Kondratiev cycles,” which has become generally accepted.

This theory establishes that the material basis of long waves in the economy is the structural renewal of the technological mode of production. It is carried out in two ways: evolutionary, when existing technologies are gradually improved and improved, and revolutionary, when fundamental qualitative changes occur in the materialization of scientific knowledge, partial (in certain industries) or general technical revolutions.

These processes are interconnected, complement and strengthen each other: the evolutionary path makes it possible to fully use the potential of existing technologies and prepare the conditions for a leap in their development. Scientific and technological revolutions change the transition to new technological principles, which then spread evolutionarily. In the end, scientific and technological revolutions become the core of the revolution in the productive forces, marking their rise to a qualitatively new level of development. They are accompanied by qualitative changes in the development of man as the main productive force of society, the growth of the efficiency and productivity of his labor.

These provisions give grounds to assert the pattern of cyclical renewal of the technological structures of the productive forces of society, which are periodically repeated as the quantitative accumulation of relevant improvements occurs at certain intervals. It should also be taken into account that cyclical development productive forces are ultimately carried out under the influence economic factors. The intensity of scientific and technical discoveries and inventions, as M. Kondratiev noted on this occasion, is a function of the demands of economic reality and the previous development of science and technology. And the development of technology itself, in his opinion, is included in the natural process of economic dynamics. Therefore, the analysis of long cycles cannot be limited to only considering the cyclical nature of technical fluctuations. It must inevitably contain consideration of changes in the organizational and economic structure of society that correspond to these processes.

In the structure of long-term waves, N.D. Kondratiev identified two | stages of development in the form of ascending and descending. The ascending phase of the long cycle is characterized as a period of long-term growth in the scientific, technical and economic development of society, lasting from 25 to 30 years. At this phase, there is the possibility of cyclical economic crises, usually developing at the level of a long-term general rise in market conditions and associated with the renewal of fixed capital.

In the descending phase of a long cycle, only changes occur in the basic technical and technological foundations of the production system. This period lasts 20-25 years and is characterized by a restructuring of the economic structure adequate to the technological renewal of social production. An important feature of large cycles is that in the process of their development they become internationalized. Having taken root in the most technologically advanced and most susceptible to innovative transformations economic systems of a particular society, they gradually spread to other economic structures. With the formation of an integral system of the world economy, the time lag of the process of internationalization of large cycles changes.

In the economic history of capitalism (80th pp. XVIII century - 20th pp. XIX century) N. D. Kondratiev identified 2.5 “large cycles”. First cycle: from 1787-1792 to 1810-1817 pp. - Rising wave; from 1810-1817 to 1844-1851 pp.

downward wave. Second cycle: from 1844-1851 pp. to 1870-1875 - rising wave, from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896 pp. - Downward wave. Third cycle - from 1890-1896 pp. to 1914-1920 pp. - Rising wave. Research by S. M. Bolekov and L. A. Klimenko showed that since 1924, the capitalist economy has gone through such long crises (waves): 1924-1938 pp. - Big crisis; 1938-1952 pp. - Recovery; 1952-1974 pp. - Long ascent; 1974-1980 pp.

big crisis (procurement).

Modern scientific and technological revolution, which began in the mid-50s, began a new long cycle (the fourth from time industrial revolution). Its features are the deepening of the internationalization of social reproduction in individual countries, the widespread use of scientific and technological achievements, the transformation of science into a direct productive force, the development of electronics, computer science, biotechnology, the transition to resource-saving technologies, organic inclusion in the reproduction process environmental problems etc. All this causes profound structural changes in the economies of the world.

According to the theory of long waves by N.D. Kondratiev, scientific and technological progress develops in waves with cycles of 50-60 years. Over the past centuries, 5 waves have occurred in the history of technologically innovative evolution, resulting in the formation of 5 technological structures.

The first way of life (1780-1830 pp.) was based on new technologies in the textile industry.

The second (1830-1890 pp.) is associated with the development of railway transport and the mechanization of production of almost all types of products based on the steam engine.

The third (1880-1930 pp.) is based on the use of electricity in industry, the development of heavy mechanical engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled products, and research in the field of chemistry.

The fourth (1930-1990 pp.) provided for the further development of energy, based mainly on the use of oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. Industry leaders of the fourth mode: mass production automobile, tractor and aircraft manufacturing, weapons production.

The fifth, founded in the mid-80s, involves the use of advances in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, space exploration, and satellite technologies.

So, long cycle theory focuses on explaining why an economy experiences long periods of high economic activity and decline. At the same time, the general trend of economic growth may coincide with the opposite in meaning in the form of recessions within the average cycles, including in the ascending segment of long waves. Accordingly, the downward trend during the downward stage of long cycles did not include an upturn during the middle cycles.

Information about the movement of cycles, their nature and consequences are not socio-economic processes, the scientific basis for long-term forecasting of economic processes, development economic policy state and macroeconomic regulation.

As for our country, its economy during the 90s was and is in a deep economic crisis, which is neither cyclical nor long-wave. There is a decline for a number of reasons. Among them, one should mention the destruction of one social economic system(administrative-command) and the transition to another (market *) secondly, there was a violation of the former unified national economic complex within the USSR (although not perfect in structure and technically of poor quality) thirdly, unfortunately, the transformations are carried out in conditions of uncontrollability of transformation processes at the macro and micro levels, when the national economy is just being transformed into a market economy and at the same time the state process is being carried out. There are also reasons for the complex socio-economic crisis in Ukraine, which will be revealed in the following topics.

Test questions and assignments

1. What is the content of economic growth?

2. Describe extensive and intensive types of economic growth.

3. What are the driving forces of economic growth?

4. What is the role of accumulation in ensuring economic growth?

5. What indicators characterize the rate and scale of economic growth?

6. How does scientific and technological progress affect economic growth?

7. Describe the main theories of economic growth.

8. What is the essence of cyclical economic growth?

9. Name the main signs of a crisis state of the economy.

10. Describe the content of the main theories of the business cycle.

11. What is the role of long waves of economic development?

Currently, in world economic science, the name of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev is associated with such concepts as “Kondratiev’s long waves” or “Kondratiev’s large cycles of market conditions.”

In the early 1920s, Kondratiev launched a broad discussion on the issue of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, hopes were still very strong for a quick revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, the possibility of its new rise, its achievement of a higher stage of development was extremely relevant.

The discussion began with the work “The World Economy and Its Conjunctures During and After the War,” published in 1922, in which Kondratiev suggested the existence of long waves in the development of capitalism. Despite the negative reaction of the majority of Soviet scientists to this publication, N.D. Kondratiev continued to consistently defend his position in the following works:

"Controversial issues of the world economy and crisis (answer to our critics)" - 1923

"Great Cycles of Conjuncture" - 1925

"On the question of large cycles of market conditions" - 1926

"Large cycles of market conditions: Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics" (together with Oparin D.I.) - 1928

Kondratieff's research and conclusions were based on empirical analysis of a large number of economic indicators of various countries over fairly long periods of time, covering 100-150 years. These indicators are: price indices, government debt securities, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover indicators, coal mining, gold production, lead production, cast iron, etc.

None of the available methods of mathematical statistics can confirm with a sufficient degree of probability the presence of 50-year cycles in the interval of 100-150 years, i.e. based on information containing a maximum of 2-3 fluctuations. Since no mathematical apparatus for time series analysis can confirm or refute the existence of long cycles with sufficient probability, Kondratiev looked for additional information, trying to find properties and phenomena common to the corresponding phases of the long cycles he discovered.

By the beginning of the 20s, world capitalism experienced, according to Kondratieff’s calculations, two and a half long waves:

rises: 1789-1814, 1849-1873, 1896-1920;

recessions: 1814-1849, 1873-1896.

Throughout the entire period under study, Kondratiev identified “four empirical correctnesses.” Two of them relate to the increasing phases, one to the decreasing stage, and another pattern appears at each of the phases of the cycle.

1) At the origins of the upward phase or at its very beginning, a profound change occurs in the entire life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations. In the upward phase of the first wave, these were: the development of the textile industry and the production of cast iron, which changed the economic and social conditions of society. In the upward phase of the second wave: the construction of railways, which made it possible to develop new territories and transform agriculture. The rising stage of the third wave is caused by the widespread introduction of electricity, radio and telephone. Kondratiev saw prospects for a new rise in the automotive industry.

2) Upward phases are richer in social upheavals (revolutions, wars) than downward ones.

3) Downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on agriculture. Low prices on goods during a recession contribute to an increase in the relative price of gold, which encourages an increase in its production. The accumulation of gold helps the economy recover from a protracted crisis.

4) Periodic crises (7-11 year cycle) are, as it were, strung together on the corresponding phases of a long wave and change their dynamics depending on it - during periods of long upswing, more time is spent on “prosperity”, and during periods of long downturn, crisis years become more frequent.

Statistical analysis of time series and the identification of these empirical patterns led Kondratiev to substantiate the theory of the endogenous nature of long waves (the nature of their occurrence inherent in the capitalist economy). According to this theory, none of the above “empirical correctness” arises by chance. Changes in technology are caused by production demands, the creation of conditions under which the use of inventions becomes possible and necessary. Wars and revolutions are a consequence of the current economic, social and political situation. The need for the development of new territories and population migration is also a result of such circumstances. That is, the noted phenomena do not play the role of random shocks that give rise to the next cycle, but are part of the mechanism inherent in capitalism that ensures its wave-like development. Each successive phase is the result of cumulative processes accumulated during the previous phase.

Endogenous mechanism according to Kondratieff.

N.D. Kondratyev in his work “Long Waves of the Market” writes that wave-like movements represent a process of deviation from the equilibrium states to which the capitalist economy tends. He raises the question of the existence of several equilibrium states, and hence the possibility of several oscillatory movements. Kondratiev explores the entire set of wave-like movements under capitalism and proposes to develop general theory hesitation.

According to Kondratieff, there are three types of equilibrium states:

1) “First order” equilibrium - between ordinary market demand and supply. Deviations from it give rise to short-term fluctuations with a period of 3-3.5 years, that is, cycles in inventory.

2) “Second-order” equilibrium, achieved in the process of formation of production prices through an intersectoral transfer of capital invested mainly in equipment. Kondratiev associates deviations from this equilibrium and its restoration with cycles of medium duration.

3) The “third order” equilibrium concerns “basic material goods”: industrial buildings, infrastructure structures, as well as skilled labor serving a given technical method of production. The stock of basic capital goods must be in balance with all the factors that determine the existing technical mode of production, with the existing sectoral structure of production, the existing raw material base and energy sources, prices, employment and social institutions, the state of the monetary system, etc.

Periodically, this balance is also disrupted and the need arises to create a new supply of “basic capital goods” that would satisfy the emerging new technical mode of production. According to Kondratiev, such a renewal of “basic capital goods”, reflecting the movement of scientific and technological progress, does not occur smoothly, but in pushes and is the material basis of large cycles of the environment. The renewal and expansion of “basic capital goods” that occurs during the upward phase of the long cycle radically changes and redistributes the productive forces of society. This requires enormous resources in kind and cash. They can only exist if they were accumulated in a previous phase when more was saved than was invested.

During the boom phase, the constant rise in prices and wages gave rise to a tendency among the population to spend more; during the recession, on the contrary, prices and wages fall. The first leads to a desire to save, and the second leads to a decrease in purchasing power. The accumulation of funds also occurs due to a fall in investments during a general recession, when profits become low and the risk of bankruptcy increases.

It can be noted that such phenomena took place in the capitalist economy in the 80s, when there was an outflow of capital from the production sphere to the sphere of speculative stock exchange transactions.

A decrease in commodity prices according to Kondratieff leads to an increase in the relative cost of gold. There is a desire to increase its production. The appearance of additional monetary metal contributes to the growth of free loan capital, and when a sufficient amount of it accumulates, the possibility of a new radical restructuring of the economy is born.

The main elements of the internal endogenous mechanism of the long cycle according to Kondratiev are as follows:

1. The capitalist economy is a movement around several levels of equilibrium. The balance of “basic capital goods” (production infrastructure plus skilled labor) with all factors of economic and social life determines a given technical mode of production. When this balance is disturbed, the need arises to create a new supply of capital goods.

2. The renewal of “basic capital goods” does not occur smoothly, but in spurts. Scientific and technical inventions and innovations play a decisive role in this.

3. The duration of the long cycle is determined by the average lifespan of industrial infrastructure structures, which are one of the main elements of capital goods of society.

4. All social processes - wars, revolutions, population migrations - are the result of the transformation of the economic mechanism.

5. Replacing “basic capital goods” and exiting a long recession requires the accumulation of resources in kind and in cash. When this accumulation reaches a sufficient magnitude, the opportunity arises for radical investments that take the economy to a new upswing.

Basic modern theories of long waves.

Innovation theories.

One of the theories of long waves is the innovation theory. This theory was developed by the Austrian economist J. Schumpeter, who was one of the first to perceive and apply the idea of ​​Kondratieff cycles. He outlined his views in the book “The Theory of Economic Development,” published in 1913.

According to Schumpeter, under capitalism there is no profit other than pure income from business, and most owners of capital do not receive profit, but only remuneration for their own labor. But some entrepreneurs do not want to put up with this situation. They are more proactive, enterprising and courageous than others, so they play the role of pioneers, introducing new goods and types of equipment into production, opening new markets and sources of raw materials, organizing production in a new way. If their undertakings are successful, the reward is high entrepreneurial profit, as a payment for additional risk and high competence.

Following such entrepreneurs, an ever-growing group of followers rushes into new areas. Innovation covers everything large quantity interdependent industries. The economy is entering a period of accelerated growth. It continues until innovation covers most of production, at which point entrepreneurial profits begin to dissipate and finally disappear. At the same time, the economy returns to the same state it was before the recovery. It does not follow from this that the cessation of growth will develop into a crisis. Schumpeter explains crises by the influence of external factors.

In addition to J. Schumpeter, followers of the innovative direction in the theory of long waves include such scientists as Simon Kuznets, Gerhard Mensch, Alfred Kleinknecht, Jacob Van Dyne.

The theory of overaccumulation in the capital sector.

This concept of long waves was developed in the mid-70s at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the leadership of Professor Jay Forrester. He stated that the changes in the previous 20 years in the economy did not fit into the dynamics of the medium-term cycle, so attention was paid to long-term fluctuations. A complex mathematical model was developed, the equations of which were derived as a result of a survey of businessmen, financiers, and politicians, and computer modeling was subsequently used.

Large cycles, according to researchers, are responsible for the processes occurring in industries producing means of production. Briefly, this mechanism can be described as follows. Let us assume that the final product of the economy consists of two sectors: the production of capital goods and the production of consumer goods. The capital sector, which produces means of production, provides machinery and equipment not only to the industries that produce consumer goods, but also to itself. The growth of consumption causes an even faster growth of means of production, that is, an accelerator operates between the two industries. According to the authors of the model, the magnitude of this accelerator in real life is much greater than that required for equilibrium motion. This is due to the fact that capital growth in conditions of constant demand is accelerated by additional circumstances: speculation, revaluation of demand, changes in real interest rates on loans, various delays in deliveries, and a pyramidal payment structure. All these factors contribute to overaccumulation in the capital sector. Orders first rise sharply, and then decline sharply. This is enough to cause long-term oscillations.

Theories related to labor.

This group of theories is based on consideration of long wave theories from the point of view of labor force patterns. Basically, the followers of this theory integrated the factor of the influence of labor on long waves with some other factor. One such scientist is Christopher Freeman, who combined innovative ideas with employment and social issues.

Freeman led a working group that conducted research in this area from 1970-1984. In their opinion, innovation is the central factor in the formation of long-term fluctuations in all spheres of economic life. However, employment acts not only as a consequence, but plays an active role in switching economic activity to a lower position.

The mechanism by which employment becomes such a switch can be described as follows. The introduction of new technologies gives rise to new industries. In the early stages of pioneering technologies, the demand for labor is limited or intense. This is due to the fact that the volume of new production is not yet large and what is required is not mass, but especially qualified, unique labor. Production volumes are gradually increasing and the emphasis is on capital-saving technology; the demand for labor begins to increase. This growth continues until the demand for both labor and related goods is saturated. At the same time, wages are rising and costs are increasing. There is a need for labor-saving innovations. There is an outflow of labor, a decrease in wages, and general demand, that is, a decline in the economy.

Price theories.

One of the proponents of the price direction in explaining long waves is Walt Whitman Rostow. According to Rostow, changes in the supply and demand of raw materials and food products, and accordingly their prices, affect innovation activity, which determines the sequence of leading industries and itself depends on them. In addition, demographic factors, housing construction, and changes in the structure of the labor force have a great influence. These three points are inextricably linked with each other. By highlighting and combining them, Rostow tries to integrate three directions in his theory of long waves: 1) agrarian-price, 2) innovation-investment and 3) demographic. Next, Rostow analyzes Kondratieff long waves, trying to trace the relationship of the three phenomena he identified in each of the cycles. Also among the supporters of the pricing concept of long waves is the American scientist Brian Berry.

CONCLUSION

Further development of the theory of long waves is seen in the creation of a new theory containing all the main factors influencing this process, since most of the listed models suffer from the lack of such multifactoriality.

Theoretical concepts of long waves are important because they provide the necessary basis for assessing the state of the economy and predicting its future state.

According to the forecasts of most scientists, the economy reached its peak in the early 70s. Since the mid-70s, the economy has been in crisis.

Eastern University

in the discipline "History of Economic Doctrines"

on the topic: “the theory of “long waves” by N.D. Kondratiev”

Performed.

We have already noted the positive role of cyclical crises, which contribute to the recovery of the economy at a new, better level. However, the cyclical crisis of 1973-1975. could not resolve the contradictions that had accumulated. This is explained by the fact that, along with underload production capacity, characteristic of crisis conditions, such phenomena as an absolute and relative increase in unemployment even during the recovery period appeared. There was a complete breakdown in monetary circulation, and a phenomenon arose such as stagflation– a combination of a crisis decline in production and an increase in commodity prices.

That is, the crises of the 70-80s. got out of the control of state countercyclical policies, and state regulation itself found itself in crisis. After all, the traditional (Keynesian) anti-crisis program provided for such crisis methods of combating the cyclical decline as reducing taxes, providing cheap credit (to stimulate investment), increasing government spending, while the fight against inflation requires increasing taxes, increasing the cost of credit, and reducing government spending. In other words, the combination of inflation and decline deprived the state of the opportunity to use proven methods of combating each of the mentioned negative phenomena in particular.

This happened because in the 70-80s. The crisis situation was caused not only by the industrial cycle, but also by its intertwining with monetary, environmental, and structural crises, i.e. with long-term crisis phenomena.

That is structural crises , is a natural phenomenon caused by the need for structural changes in the economy caused by the impact of the development of productive forces and allowing the transition to a new stage social division labor. That is, an outdated structure National economy(the decline of its individual elements, substructures of industries and groups of industries) should be replaced by a renewed structure.

The current long-term structural crisis has affected three groups of industries: 1) producers of fuel and other products of intermediate demand (except for new materials and energy resources); 2) producers of elements of fixed capital (except for other types of equipment); 3) producers of personal consumption goods (except those related to microelectronics).

What are its features?

One of the features of a structural crisis is that it associated with the decline of key industries, which determine the structure of reproduction (coal, steel, automobile, textile, rubber, etc.), and the imbalances between individual industries can no longer be overcome with the help of a cyclical crisis. (Whereas ordinary (industry) crises do not go beyond these industries and do not affect general economic proportions - flour-grinding, leather industries, for example.)

Besides, structural crises are longer term and are characterized by: 1) overaccumulation; 2) production reduction; 3) long-term technological unemployment (thus, the fuel and energy crisis ensured the transition to energy-saving technologies and resource conservation).

Structural crisis is a means of long-term adaptation(and not the violent resolution of contradictions) of production to new social needs (the content of such adaptation is a structural restructuring of the economy, creating new opportunities for the development of social productive forces).

He cannot be overcome by simple crossing economic system from decline and depression to recovery and recovery. Firstly, economic growth stimulates the development of contradictions caused by structural imbalances (since new industries are equipped advanced technology, are developing at a faster pace, and crisis sectors do not have time to get out of stagnation). Secondly, overcoming the structural crisis is complicated by the new social parameters of society’s requirements for production, which consist in the need to allocate significant funds for environmental protection. Thirdly, the need to allocate funds to create favorable working conditions.

This is explained by the fact that capital, seeking to make a profit, forms the appropriate territorial-sectoral structure of a particular region. If this structure turns out to be overloaded with one type of activity (coal, metallurgical, etc.), then this leads to a complication of solving socio-economic problems, with the aggravation of the crisis in these leading industries.

Therefore, if structural crises of a sectoral nature demonstrate a long process of overaccumulation of capital in its value and in a specific material form, then regional crises are their manifestation of a spatial plan, i.e. spatial manifestation.

In this regard, regional crises, combined with cyclical and structural ones, pose problems for society that have yet to be solved.

In general economic restructuring is not limited to the redistribution of basic resources between traditional industries and areas economic activity, it covers all existing economic institutions, changes the system of economic relations, and sets new requirements for the level of industrial culture.

If we talk about the structural restructuring of the economy in the 70-80s, in developed countries, then at the first stage a transition was made from resource-intensive to resource-saving technologies (basic industries underwent radical modernization, and enterprises that could not be re-equipped were liquidated).

At the second stage, rapid computerization of the economy was carried out in almost all spheres of social life.

Modern structural restructuring, as experience shows, requires structural transformations in combination with a targeted and solid structural and regional policy of the state. And in conclusion of this issue, let us turn to the theory of long waves by N. Kondratiev.

So, back at the beginning of the twentieth century. in the works of scientists (A. Aftalion, M. Lenoir, M. Tugan-Baranovsky) it was noted that there were long periods of price fluctuations (increases and decreases). In the 20s Russian scientist N.D. Kondratiev, based on statistical research, described the phenomenon of long-term fluctuations.

Based on a study of changes in the price index, rent, wages, foreign trade turnover, production of coal, lead, pig iron and consumption of mineral fuels over a 100-year period, he came to the conclusion that large cycles exist.

They identified one current and two large cycles, and within them – waves of increase and decrease.

I. 1) Wave of increase: the end of the 80s to 1810-1817.

2) Wave of decline: from 1810-1817. to 1844-1851

II. 1) Wave of increase: from 1844-1855. to 1870-1875

2) Wave of decline: from 1870-1875. to 1890-1896

III. 1) Wave of increase: from 1891-1896. to 1914-1920

2) Wave of decline of the third cycle from 1914-1920.

Characteristic features of large cycles:

1) Have an international distribution;

2) they are not universal in terms of manifestation in all indicators of market conditions;

3) a more accurate repetition period (the average interval is 48-55 years, whereas for ordinary cycles it is 7-11 years).

A more detailed analysis of long waves was also made, reflected in the provisions:

1) Before and at the beginning of the rising wave, there is significant progress in technology, drawing new countries into global economic ties.

2) The period of waves of increase accounts for the greatest number of social upheavals (revolution, wars).

3) The wave of decline is characterized by a pronounced depression in agriculture.

4) During the period of increase, ordinary (average) cycles are characterized by short-term depression and the intensity of rises. During periods of waves of decline, the opposite is true.

The main cause of long-wave oscillations N.D. Kondratiev considered the presence in the total capital of special inertial parts that have a long lifespan (high cost of means of production, structures, devices, Vehicle, as well as skilled labor).

However, both cyclical fluctuations and structural crises are associated with economic growth, which from time to time creates certain imbalances.