No reason for growth

​Recovery growth in real wages in 2017 gave the authorities hope of overcoming the long-term decline in real incomes and beginning to grow. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Russian television channels that the growth of real wages means that “we have entered a situation where incomes are no longer falling, but growing.” He called poverty “one of the most glaring problems” of the modern Russian economy.

The reason for the discrepancy between the dynamics of cash income and real wages is that “hidden” wages and other incomes declined in 2017 faster than observed wages grew, believes Tatyana Maleva, director of the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. “The reduction in real disposable cash income of the population with an increase in the observed wages of workers is most likely caused by a redistribution between observed and unobserved wages in favor of the observed and a reduction in the total volume of the “hidden” wage fund,” Maleva noted in the report “Social Lessons of the Economic Crisis ", presented in mid-January at the Gaidar Forum.

The reduction in real incomes, traced in state statistics, can be explained by the fact that Rosstat now reports on wages at large and medium-sized enterprises, which amounts to approximately 40% of all employment, Vladimir Gimpelson, director of the Center for Labor Research at the Higher School of Economics, told RBC. “In the remaining 60%, the dynamics of real wages is still unknown to us,” he noted. According to him, economic growth is very small (according to Rosstat for January-September 2017, GDP growth is 1.6%) and is not enough to ensure income growth. “I don’t see any particular reason for great hopes,” Gimpelson concluded.

We should not expect growth in real incomes in 2018, because the growth in real wages observed in 2017 may stop, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “In 2018, the dynamics of wages does not look encouraging, because most of the wages are indexed to last year’s inflation, which was 2.5%. There is a risk that wage indexation will approach the 2017 inflation level, while 2018 inflation may accelerate at least in the second half of the year, and then in real terms wages in 2018 may not show growth,” Orlova told RBC.

Hopes were not justified

Rosstat also reported that retail trade grew by 1.2% in 2017 after falling by 4.6% in 2016; in December, retail trade turnover grew by 3.1%. Industrial production in 2017, which is half as much as government forecasts. In December, industry decreased by 1.5%; in the fourth quarter, industrial production showed a decline of 1.7%. Alfa Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2018 to 1%. “We are extremely disappointed by the fact that the recovery of the Russian economy turned out to be short-lived; just one quarter after economic growth accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year, growth rates fell into negative territory in November,” Orlova noted.

* The price includes a 10% discount when paying online. persons. When paying by bank transfer, the cost is 30,000 rubles.

ECC "Invest-Project" has completed the next wave of statistical research distribution of income of the population of Moscow taking into account the results of 2015 and the forecast for 2016. The study was carried out by employees of the Invest-Project ECC according to the data of the FSGS of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, independent experts with recalculation using the author’s mathematical and economic models:

1. in January - May 2008,
2. in January - December 2009,
3. in January - September 2010,
4. in February - March 2011,
5. in March - May 2012,
6. in April - May 2013,
7. in May - June 2014
8. in February - March 2016

Study population groups

The study provides indicative statistics on the income of the Moscow population by group:

• by 10 decile groups (10% of city residents) and their derivative groups
  • "poorest" (10%),
  • “poor” (60%),
  • "middle class" (20%),
  • “rich” (10%);
• for 10 one-percent subgroups (1% of city residents each) of the tenth decile group (10% of the wealthiest city residents);
• for 10 0.1% subgroups (0.1% of city residents each) 1% of the richest city residents.

In fact, this data can be used to determine the target audience and calculate the possible market share for any b2c business in Moscow.

Data relevance

The data reflects the results of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, and a forecast for 2016 is provided.

Research methods

The results were obtained on the basis of methods and economic-mathematical models developed by specialists of the Invest-Project ECC for more than ten years, using initial data from these sources, adjusted for inflation, currency values, dynamics of purchasing power of the population, cost of living, structure of consumer costs , macroeconomic indicators. A spot check of key indicators confirms the accuracy of our forecast for 2008-2015. and allows us to confidently predict the results of 2016.

Each income group of the population has its own price range for goods and services. Consequently, the degree of market saturation must be determined not only for the market as a whole, but also in relation to each income group.

According to the recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia (MEDT), when studying the distribution of income of the population of a region, its entire population should be divided into 10 decile groups - 10% of the population in each group in order of increasing income. At the same time, a big problem is determining the boundaries of the ranges of average per capita incomes corresponding to these decile groups in a particular region in a given period and taking into account shadow incomes.

It is important to note that the average per capita income (rubles per month per person) does not mean the total wage and not the amount of the household’s own cash income per person, but the amount of all types of household income actually spent on consumption as a whole (wages, pensions, income from the rental of housing and property, various benefits and benefits in monetary terms, dividends, income on capital and intellectual property, shadow and illegal sources of income, etc.), divided by the number of family members living together and leading a common household . At the same time, one person living separately is also considered an independent household, even if he has close relatives.

Purpose of the study

Continuous monitoring of the dynamics of per capita income of the Moscow population for 30 main income groups.

Income of the population of other Russian cities

ECC "Invest-Project" conducts analysis distribution of income of the population any major cities in Russia. The results of the analysis are used in marketing research, for example, to determine target groups of consumers, their financial capabilities, the size of the average bill when entering new markets, etc., as well as when planning various socio-economic development indicators.

Excerpt from the study:

• average per capita income of the Moscow population:
• 2008: 44.8 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2009: 42.3 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2010: 48.6 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2011: 54.3 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2012: 59.4 thousand. rub. / month / person ,
• 2013: 66.5 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2014: 72.7 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2015: 70.8 thousand rubles. / month / person,
• 2016 (forecast): *** thousand rubles. / month / person

Distribution of income of the Moscow population in 2016

Against the backdrop of unfavorable macroeconomic factors, the average per capita income of the Moscow population in 2015 decreased by 12,6 %, reaching in value terms 70,8 thousand roubles. / month / person President of the ECC "Invest-Project" Andrey Lumpov: “The oligarchs were made poorer and forced to behave more modestly: in 2015, real incomes of all groups of the population fell, while the gap between the incomes of the richest 10% and the poorest 10% (decile ratio) continued to shrink, which helps reduce tension in society as a whole ". Without taking into account the income of the group of the wealthiest citizens, the average per capita income of 99.5% of the Moscow population in 2015 year was significantly less - *** thousand roubles. / month / person

At the same time, in 2016 we expect a recovery and growth in the average per capita cash income of the Moscow population by **% compared to the 2015 level.

The data can be widely used in developing companies' pricing policies, clarifying development strategies, and determining effective demand for goods or services.

Distribution of income of the population of Moscow contains 60 pages, including 29 tables and 11 graphs.

List of tables

Table 1. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population, 2008.

Table 2. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest city residents.

Table 3. Income distribution for the 1% wealthiest city residents.

Table 4. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2009

Table 5. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.

Table 6. Income distribution for the 1% wealthiest city residents.

Table 7. Reduction of nominal incomes by 10 decile groups in 2008 - 2009

Table 8. Living wages in Moscow in 2001 - 2008.

Table 9. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2010

Table 10. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.

Table 11. Income distribution of the 1% richest city residents, 2010

Table 12. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2011

Table 13. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.

Table 14. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2011

Table 15. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2012

Table 16. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2012

Table 17. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2012

Table 18. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2013

Table 19. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2013

Table 20. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2013

Table 21. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2014

Table 22. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2014

Table 23. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2014

Table 24. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2015

Table 25. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2015

Table 26. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2015

Table 27. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2016

Table 28. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2016

Table 29. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2016

List of charts

Graph 1. Dynamics of inflation and GDP in Russia, %, 2003-2016.

Graph 2. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population, 2008.

Graph 3. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2009

Graph 4. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2010

Graph 5. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2011

Chart 6. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2012

Chart 7. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2013

Chart 8. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2014

Chart 9. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2015

Chart 10. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population for 2016.

Chart 11. Dynamics of average per capita income of the population of Moscow, 2008-2016, thousand rubles. / month / person

Real disposable income of the Russian population has been falling for the fifth year in a row – since 2014. In 2018, according to Rosstat, they decreased by another 0.2%. This means that Russians continue to get poorer in real terms. What does “real terms” mean? This is when, in fact, the growth of your salary or other income is depreciated by inflation - when goods and services become more expensive. That is, the nominal (not taking into account) inflation salary, and the quantity and quality of goods that you can buy with it, falls. Often, wages do not increase and the ability to buy various goods decreases even more. We have to switch to cheap products and give up some services.

The dynamics of the decline in real income from 2014 to 2018 is as follows:

Total for 5 years – 11% falls.

From 2000 to 2018, statistics on real income growth in % look like this:

2000	9,1
2001	8,7
2002	11,1
2003	15
2004	10,4
2005	12,4
2006	13,5
2007	13,1
2008	2,4
2009	3
2010	5,9
2011	0,5
2012	4,6
2013	4
2014	-0,7
2015	-3,2
2016	-5,6
2017	-1,3
2018	-0,2

Rosstat data.

At the end of 2018, household incomes are at the levels of 2009-2010. The growth compared to 1999 is slightly more than 2 times.

Although the figures for the decline to 2009 levels look quite dramatic in themselves, some economists call 11% too optimistic, citing the fact that Rosstat often inflates “paper” figures.

The top ten rankings of regions by average per capita income in 2016 included Moscow, Chukotka Autonomous District. District, Sakhalin Region, Magadan Region, St. Petersburg, Moscow Region, Kamchatka Territory, Tyumen Region, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Territory. In addition to the capitals and the Moscow region, the remaining regions represent the Far East and Siberia (see rating).

The second ten rankings for 2016 included the Murmansk and Sverdlovsk regions, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Krasnodar region, the Arkhangelsk region, the Primorsky region, the Komi Republic, and the Nizhny Novgorod region. Both industrial regions and regions with developed agriculture are represented here: the Krasnodar Territory and the Voronezh Region, in which the shares of the shadow economy are relatively large. The informal economy in regions favorable for agriculture brings significant income to the population and is taken into account by statistics.

Among the outsiders in terms of average per capita income are the Tomsk region - 50th place, the Oryol region - 52, the Chelyabinsk region - 53, the Vladimir region - 55, the Astrakhan region - 57, the Stavropol region - 59, the Orenburg region - 60, the Pskov region - 61, Irkutsk region - 62, Ulyanovsk region - 63, Penza region - 65, Volgograd region - 66, Altai region - 68, Kemerovo region - 69, Kirov region - 70, Kurgan region - 71, Saratov region - 73.

Outsiders in terms of average per capita income include subjects with diverse economies - Siberian regions rich in natural resources (Tomsk, Irkutsk, Kemerovo regions, Altai Territory), industrial regions (Chelyabinsk, Vladimir regions), as well as regions with a favorable climate for agricultural development - Oryol, Volgograd, Saratov regions.

Average per capita income in the Russian Federation for 2016 amounted to 30,738 rubles. For comparison, the additional payment assigned to themselves by a special Federal Law to the basic salary of State Duma deputies is 90 thousand rubles per month. Three times higher than the average per capita income in the Russian Federation. And the salary of State Duma deputies itself is 154.85 thousand rubles, which is far from small compared to the average Russian salary (36,709 rubles in 2016).

The average per capita income of Russians at current exchange rates is about $510. This is difficult, but enough for a modest Russian life. But most Russians are unable to create effective savings in profitable financial assets. Therefore, Russians are not yet actively participating in the securities markets.

At the same time, on the deposits of Russians, according to the Bank of Russia, as of June 1, 2017, in the entire banking system of the country, the volume of deposits amounted to 24.4 trillion rubles (including deposits in foreign currency and precious metals), which must be used as effective investments into the Russian economy, as is the case in other countries.

Chukotka Autonomous Republic district
Sakhalin region
Magadan Region
Saint Petersburg
Moscow region
Kamchatka Krai
Tyumen region
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Khabarovsk region
Murmansk region
Sverdlovsk region
Republic of Tatarstan
Krasnodar region
Arhangelsk region
Primorsky Krai
Komi Republic
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Belgorod region
Voronezh region
Amur region
Perm region
Kaluga region
Lipetsk region
The Republic of Dagestan
Leningrad region
Republic of Bashkortostan
Krasnoyarsk region
Tula region
Yaroslavl region
Vologda Region
Rostov region
Kursk region
Samara Region
Tambov Region
Republic of Karelia
Novgorod region
Bryansk region
Kaliningrad region
Novosibirsk region
Omsk region
The Republic of Buryatia
Tver region
Ryazan Oblast
Smolensk region
Kostroma region
Ivanovo region
Udmurt republic
Republic of Adygea
Tomsk region
Jewish Autonomous Region
Oryol Region
Chelyabinsk region
Transbaikal region
Vladimir region
Sevastopol
Astrakhan region
Chechen Republic
Stavropol region
Orenburg region
Pskov region
Irkutsk region
Ulyanovsk region
R. North Ossetia - Alania
Penza region
Volgograd region
The Republic of Khakassia
Altai region
Kemerovo region
Kirov region
Kurgan region
Kabardino-Balkarian R.
Saratov region
Republic of Crimea
Mari El Republic
The Republic of Mordovia
Chuvash Republic
Altai Republic
Karachay-Cherkesskaya R.
The Republic of Ingushetia
Republic of Kalmykia
Tyva Republic

RIA Rating - June 1 The crisis phenomena that gripped most spheres of the Russian economy could not but affect the income of the population and led to a reduction in the free monetary resources available to the family after making vital expenses. For four years, RIA Rating experts noted an increase in the well-being of Russian families, and until 2015, in most regions of the Russian Federation there was an increase in the amount of free money that could be spent on the purchase of expensive goods, vacations outside the region, purchase of housing, etc. Despite this that the average nominal accrued wage increased by 4.2%, the volume of free financial resources of families due to inflation decreased in the vast majority of regions. At the same time, large gaps in the financial situation between rich and poor regions remained. And in general, it can be stated that the well-being of Russian families is closely related to the level of economic development of the regions, one of the indicators of which is the volume of gross regional product per capita.

This is evidenced by the rating of regions by the level of family well-being at the end of 2015, prepared for the fifth time by RIA Rating experts. The rating was based on the amount of money that remains at the disposal of a family with two workers with the average salary in the region after deducting the cost of living of two adults and two children. The cost of living was used as a minimum cost level. Of course, in reality, the minimum expenses of families may be higher, since official statistics cannot take into account all the characteristics of a particular family, but these expenses, most likely, cannot be lower.

The free cash balance of families has decreased in the vast majority of regions

On average in Russia at the end of 2015, families with two children are left with 28.1 thousand rubles every month after minimal spending, which is 13% lower than a year earlier. Only in 15 regions the free balance exceeds the national average, and their number and composition have not changed compared to the results of 2014.

For the fifth year in a row, the first place is occupied by the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, but the difference with the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - its closest pursuer - continues to shrink. The average monthly balance of a typical family with two children in these regions is 91.2 thousand rubles and 89.9 thousand rubles, respectively. In third place is the city of Moscow, where on average a family with two children has 69.4 thousand rubles after minimum expenses. The Sakhalin region, which occupied seventh place a year earlier, moved to fourth place. This is the only region where the free cash balance of families increased in 2015 and amounted to 64.7 thousand rubles, which is 9% more than a year earlier. In three more Russian regions - the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Magadan Region - the free balance of household funds exceeds 50 thousand rubles.

By average Russian standards, the wealth of families in these regions looks very high and they have the opportunity to plan their future relatively calmly. On the other hand, it is certainly worth making allowances for the diversity of living conditions in our country, and salaries are not an absolute indicator of the quality of life in the regions. In the north of the country, the high income factor compensates for the harsh climate, difficult living conditions and remoteness from the cultural values ​​of the central regions. In capitals, this is compensation for the shortcomings of megacities.

The geography of poverty has expanded

The number of regions in which a family of two working parents and two dependent children has less than 10 thousand rubles has decreased from year to year. But at the end of 2015, it increased again to 26 (in 2014 there were only six such regions, in 2013 - seven, in 2012 - 10, in 2011 - 29). In another 18 regions, between 10 and 15 thousand rubles remain. That is, it can be assumed that it is on these funds that the average family, living without additional government or other support, can potentially count on the realization of their desires. Be it improving living conditions, purchasing a car, going on vacation, receiving paid medical services or education for children.

As follows from the rating data, the poorest families live in the Pskov region, whose free balance after all minimum payments is only 570 rubles. The region’s position did not change over the year; at the end of 2014, the region also occupied the last line of the ranking, but the volume of free cash resources decreased by 93%, and this was the most significant decrease in the indicator among all regions. The penultimate place was taken by the Republic of Dagestan, where the family has only 2.4 thousand rubles, which is 75% lower than last year’s figure. The third place from the bottom is occupied by the Ivanovo region with a free cash balance of 3.1 thousand rubles (-64% compared to the result of 2014).

The regions of the Crimean Federal District were also included in the calculation of the family well-being rating at the end of 2015, but so far their positions are modest, largely due to the ongoing process of full integration of Crimea into the Russian economy. Sevastopol ranks 54th with a free balance of 12.4 thousand rubles for a family with two children; in the average family of the Republic of Crimea, 7 thousand rubles remain and this is 71st line in the ranking.

Analyzing the lower part of the ranking, it is worth noting that the geography of regional poverty is very wide, and you can find representatives from almost all federal districts. But if at the top of the ranking there are mainly industrialized regions rich in natural resources, then at the bottom are regions with low-power industry. And until the historical imbalance is eliminated, it is difficult to expect real changes in the well-being of the population in poor regions.

In last year’s ranking of family well-being, RIA Rating experts expected that the leaders would be able to maintain their positions, but in the middle part of the ranking various changes were possible, which actually happened. The most noticeable improvement in positions was shown by the Samara region, which immediately moved up 14 positions. At the end of 2015, the region ranks 29th versus 43rd a year earlier. In addition, the Republic of Mordovia rose by 8 places to 59th, the Ryazan region and the Udmurt Republic added six places each, taking 43rd and 46th places, respectively. It is worth noting that the listed subjects of the Russian Federation were not able to avoid a decrease in their free cash balance, but compared to the regions surrounding them in the ranking, the drop was not so significant. As already mentioned, the consolidated balance decreased in all regions of the Russian Federation, with the exception of the Sakhalin region.

The most noticeable decline in position is for the Republic of Karelia, which lost 14 places and, at the end of 2015, ranks 50th. Primorsky Krai is in 45th place, which is 11 lines lower than in 2014. The Republic of Ingushetia took 69th place in the ranking, losing 7 positions; the Amur Region and Nizhny Novgorod Region lost six places each.

It's easier for families with one child

The well-being of families with one child, which, according to Rosstat data, is the majority in Russia, is noticeably higher. In the vast majority of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, families have between 20 and 50 thousand rubles left on their hands each month. In ten regions, after all minimum payments, more than 50 thousand rubles remain, and in no region there is a free cash balance of less than 10 thousand rubles. The leader in this case is the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, where a family with one child can have a free balance of 106.8 thousand rubles, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is in second place (106.7 thousand rubles), and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (106.7 thousand rubles) closes the top three ( 83.2 thousand rubles). Even in this case, Pskov families have the hardest time of all in Russia, but if they have only one child, they are left with 10.6 thousand rubles.

According to RIA Rating experts, based on the results of 2016, it is difficult to expect a significant improvement in the situation in the field of family well-being without tangible changes in the real sector of the economy. Although, on the other hand, there are trends towards improvement in the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators and with a certain degree of confidence we can hope that things will not get worse.

RIA Rating is a universal rating agency of the media group MIA "Russia Today", specializing in assessing the condition of companies, regions, banks, industries and credit risks. The main activities of the agency are: assigning credit ratings and reliability ratings to banks, enterprises, regions, municipalities, insurance companies, securities, and other economic entities; economic research in the financial, corporate and government sectors.

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