• 05.09.19

  Katya Frenkel, head of the analytical department at FinIst, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 534

• 04.09.19

  Alexander Kuptsikevich, FxPro analyst, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 6 1 603

• 03.09.19

  2 820

• 02.09.19

  3 051

• 30.08.19

  "The ruble, paired with the dollar, closed Thursday's trading at 66.5. Stronger growth of the Russian currency is hindered by an expensive dollar. Thus, the euro-dollar pair seems to have already taken root at 1.11 and cannot climb any higher. Moreover, there is a growing threat of breaking through the 1.10 mark, which could provoke a massive closing of "longs in the footsteps" and take the dollar to new heights.However, on Friday, we expect the ruble to continue to strengthen up to... 3 2 096

• 28.08.19

  The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2019 at the level of 65.8 rubles, at the end of 2020 - 65.6 rubles, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (base version) for 2019-2024, which was reviewed by Interfax (government plans to consider it at the meeting on September 19). The current exchange rate of the Central Bank on August 29 is 66.4 rubles. per dollar. At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts the dollar exchange rate at the level of 66.2 rubles,... 1 282

• 28.08.19

  Alexander Timofeev, Director for the Analysis of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics, IC "Instant Invest", especially for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta": 12 3 081

• 27.08.19

  Sergey Suverov, senior analyst at BCS Premier, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 3 164

• 26.08.19

  The head of the Central Bank of England, Mark Carney, proposed replacing the dollar with a new reserve currency. According to him, the world has become too dependent on the US economy. Carney noted that the role of emerging markets is growing, and the use of the US currency is risky. He invited central banks to unite and create a "global digital alternative" to the dollar, CNBC reports. The new currency will balance the system in which some countries have moved to... 1 048

• 23.08.19

  Alexander Kuptsikevich, financial analyst at FxPro, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 2 229

• 23.08.19

  The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fixed below the mark of 66 rubles. A wave of positive may further strengthen the Russian currency in the coming days - up to about 65 rubles per dollar, analysts admit. But the ruble is now being forced to grow by one-time factors, so it is hardly worth counting on the stability of its growth. Over the past two trading days, the Russian currency has almost won back the significant losses suffered on Friday and Monday, when due to... 4 2 585

• 07.08.19

  The ruble is undervalued after declining in early August. It is likely that its rate will recover amid a decline in fears associated with the recently announced sanctions and signals from the US Federal Reserve for further policy easing, predicts Yury Popov, an analyst at Sberbank CIB. 4 4 221

• 06.08.19

  The new package of anti-Russian sanctions may have spooked investors, but the ruble is already rebounding after falling 2% against the dollar on Thursday and Friday, August 1 and 2, Bloomberg reports. This is a marked improvement over the situation last year, when the United States imposed the first round of sanctions against Russia in connection with the assassination attempt on former double agent Sergei Skripal on the territory of the United Kingdom... 2 157

• 06.08.19

  Dmitry Babin, stock market expert at BCS Broker, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 5 370

• 06.08.19

  It will not be possible to “de-dollarize” international trade quickly. 1 109

• 06.08.19

  The signed law also gradually cancels the repatriation of rubles by exporters and reduces reporting on accounts in "good" countries. 932

• 06.08.19

  Federal Law No. 265-FZ of August 2, 2019 "On Amendments to the Federal Law "On Currency Regulation and Currency Control" with regard to the liberalization of restrictions on foreign exchange transactions by residents using accounts (deposits) opened with banks located outside the territory of the Russian Federation Federation, and repatriation of funds" 493

• 05.08.19

  The exchange rate of the ruble against leading currencies is currently more influenced by external factors than by the introduction of the second round of US sanctions, said Sergey Drozdov, an analyst at Finam Group. The second package of US sanctions against Russia in the framework of the "Skripal case" includes restrictions on public debt and Washington's requirement for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the IMF, not to provide loans to Moscow. American banks will be banned from participating... 1 266

• 05.08.19

  Rosbank chief analyst Evgeny Koshelev said that the ruble could lose another 1-1.5% against the US dollar against the backdrop of a new package of US sanctions. The measures were expressed in the introduction of a ban on the participation of American banks in the primary market for non-ruble bonds of Russian sovereign debt. "Federal loan bonds for five years may open at 7.30-7.35% and OFZ for 10 years - 7.50-7.55%," the analyst said. He added that the negative factor... 1 252

• 05.08.19

  Russia may well do without US loans, Anton Siluanov said. According to him, the Russian economy is quickly adapting to external restrictions. 3 1 070

• 05.08.19

  The escalation of the trade war between the US and China provoked the departure of global investors from risky assets. Against this background, at the end of the week, the ruble fell sharply and oil prices sank. Obviously, on Monday the sale of risky assets will continue, it will be aggravated by the effect of new US sanctions against Russia. At the same time, it is unlikely that there will be a deeper decline in oil prices and the ruble exchange rate in August than it was on Friday. Against the background of a new round ... 1 083

• 02.08.19

  Natalya Milchakova, Deputy Head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 31 11 605

• 01.08.19

  August is traditionally a difficult period for the ruble, and in the coming month, the Russian currency may be subject to several shocks, the main of which are sanctions and oil. They are capable of devaluing the ruble immediately by 10%, and subsequently more, according to some experts interviewed by the Prime agency. However, the arrival of the so-called "black swans" is an unlikely event, and analysts are more inclined to expect a slight change in the course... 4 037

• 01.08.19

  The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) for the first time since December 2008 lowered the base interest rate. 1 3 669

• 31.07.19

  The wider use of national currencies is supported by the European Union and China, but the departure from the dollar will not be quick - a restructuring of the entire global financial system is required. This was told to RBC by the director of the department of the Ministry of Finance for control over external restrictions Dmitry Timofeev. According to him, the process is hampered by the global historical role of the US dollar as the most liquid currency with a highly developed system of correspondent accounts. "Connecting... 1 066



• 31.07.19

  The Ministry of Finance believes that in this case the recalculation is carried out at the rate of the Central Bank on the date of issuance of accountable amounts. 3 454

• 31.07.19

  Georgy Vashchenko, Head of Operations on the Russian Stock Market, Freedom Finance Investment Company, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 4 229

• 30.07.19

  The central event of the week, both for the ruble and for all financial markets, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on July 31, where the American regulator for the first time since 2008 should reduce the base rate. But the strengthening of the Russian currency, which such a decision should cause, is likely to be insignificant. On the eve of the payment of income tax ended the July tax period. Analysts of the bank "St. Petersburg" estimate the amount of payments on it at 420 ... 1 695

• 29.07.19

  In the second half of this year, the formation of a currency deficit in the domestic market and the weakening of the ruble are not ruled out. This is stated in the next issue of "Comments on the state and business" from the Higher School of Economics. The review's author Sergei Pukhov, in particular, points out that the seasonally adjusted current account surplus in the second quarter fell by about 10% compared to the first quarter of this year, to $20 billion. By... 995

• 29.07.19

  Since the beginning of January, the ruble has appreciated by almost ten percent against the dollar and by eleven percent against the euro. This is the best result among the currencies of emerging economies. The rate was not affected by fluctuations in oil prices, nor the threat of US sanctions. August is approaching - traditionally a difficult month for the Russian currency. What to expect from the ruble in the last month of summer - in the material of RIA Novosti. New reality In the first half of the year, the ruble showed the best... 1 919

• 29.07.19

  Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, expert of the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 3 980

• 29.07.19

  At the same time, according to the American president, because of this, "it is more difficult to compete." 745

• 26.07.19

  Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 305

• 25.07.19

  1 815

• 10.07.19

  The number of dollar millionaires in Russia in 2018 amounted to 200.3 thousand people, which is a record figure since 2008, according to the materials of the World Wealth Report, prepared by the financial company Capgemini. In 2017, the figure was 189.5 thousand people. Thus, the figure for the year increased by 10.8 thousand people, or by 5.7%. The total fortune of dollar millionaires in Russia in 2018 amounted to $1.1 trillion. ... 2 2 564

• 10.07.19

  Banks are starting to close deposits in euros. Some are even going to take a percentage for keeping the EU currency, that is, depositors will have to pay extra for this service. However, the clouds over the euro have been gathering for more than a month now. Rates are falling, and the exchange rate cannot be called profitable for investments. Life found out what was happening: why the euro fell into disgrace, what threatens savings in this currency and how to save them. Why banks refuse... 4 240

• 10.07.19

  The trend towards the weakening of the Russian currency, observed for most of last week, has not yet received a clear continuation at the beginning of this week. The dynamics of the ruble, like most currencies of developing countries, may change by the end of the month, closer to the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Russian ruble is still the clear leader of growth since the beginning of the year, but the bulk of the factors supporting the Russian currency have exhausted... 865

• 09.07.19

  The real effective exchange rate of the ruble (against the currencies of the main trading partners of the Russian Federation, adjusted for inflation), according to preliminary estimates, grew by 5.8% in January-June, and by 0.1% in June, according to the materials of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar rose by 0.7% in June compared to May, and by 0.1% against the euro. ... 682

• 09.07.19

  The Bank of Russia did not seriously discuss with professional market participants restrictions on the opening of foreign currency deposits for ordinary Russians, writes Forbes, citing sources. The reason for such news was a joke at a meeting of the Central Bank with representatives of self-regulatory organizations of the financial market. According to the interlocutor of the publication, during this meeting, one of the market participants voiced concerns that the regulation of the market could reach a ban by the regulator... 783

• 09.07.19

  The US Federal Reserve will begin a policy of sharp weakening of the dollar, Saxo Bank is sure. Thanks to this, the rest of the world “feels better”, analysts emphasize. Why the White House does not need a strong dollar and what tools the Fed has to adjust the exchange rate. 815

• 08.07.19

  The ruble remains under pressure from dividend payments, the situation in Iran, and the reduced likelihood of an aggressive easing of the Fed's policy. 2 1 876

• 08.07.19

  At the end of last week, the ruble showed mostly neutral dynamics, plying around 63.5 per dollar. But towards Friday evening, after the release of unexpectedly strong data on the US labor market, the Russian currency began to weaken. As a result, the auction ended at 63.8 rubles per dollar. According to the chief analyst of BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich, further risk appetite will cool, pressure on the currencies of developing countries and risk... 1 009

• 05.07.19

  Roman Blinov, head of the analytical department of the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 119

• 04.07.19

  The strengthening of the ruble, which since the beginning has gained 8.5% against the dollar and 9.5% against the euro, is short-lived, and in the second half of the year the Russian currency will begin to depreciate, Alfa-Bank's Center for Macroeconomic Analysis predicts. The dollar exchange rate, which fell below 63 rubles in June for the first time since August last year, will rise to 67 by winter, the bank believes. The ruble was supported by “a decrease in anxiety about new sanctions and an increase in appetite for... 3 803

• 04.07.19

  Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 912

• 03.07.19

  Narek Avakyan, head of the investment department at BCS Broker, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 806

• 03.07.19

  The total amount of funds allocated by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation for the purchase of foreign currency under the budget rule will amount to 231 billion rubles from July 5 to August 6. The daily volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 10 billion rubles in the coming period, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement. In the period from June 7 to July 4, the amount of funds amounted to 310.3 billion rubles (daily - 16.3 billion rubles). The expected amount of additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, ... 711

• 02.07.19

  The ruble will come under pressure in the second half of the year on the back of an increase in external debt repayments, an increase in imports and a general decline in risk appetite on world markets, according to most experts polled by the Prime agency. According to their estimates, the dollar and euro against this background will add a few rubles. Risks for the ruble The main risks for the ruble in the second half of the year are the traditional growth in the fourth quarter of... 1 432

• 02.07.19

  After the conclusion of a trade truce between the US and China, their trade relations are unlikely to show any positive breakthroughs in the short term. The main set of risks for the global economy will remain in full and, probably, have only a diplomatic "camouflage", says Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier. However, market sentiment in the coming month is likely to... 1 788

• 01.07.19

  The Russian currency has experienced a period of prosperity for the past six months: it has strengthened due to new investors. But the current month can significantly change everything. Experts believe that the tests, which are being prepared in July, can seriously change the situation with the ruble. At the auction of the Ministry of Finance, they discussed the yield of 18.4 billion rubles out of the planned 20 billion. According to Roman Makarov, CEO of IFC Seimer, “this means that investors are experiencing... 3 755

• 28.06.19

  Russia and China have taken the first step towards de-dollarization. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Chairman of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang signed an agreement refusing to make settlements in dollars. All mutual payments will be made in rubles and yuan. After the signing of the agreement, settlements previously registered in dollars will also switch to settlements in rubles and yuan, Izvestia writes with reference to the deputy head of the department, Sergei Storchak. Make payments... 1 1 524

• 27.06.19

  Andrey Perekalsky, Leading Analyst at FinIst, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 2 724

• 26.06.19

  On Tuesday, the Russian currency again finished trading near 63 rubles per dollar against the background of the weakening of the "American" due to soft signals from the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the past peak of the tax period. The weakening of the dollar will naturally continue to support the ruble, but the potential for strengthening the Russian currency in the second half of the year looks limited, said Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier. First, in... 4 079

• 26.06.19

  Last year, the Russian Federation became the first in the world to sell reserves in US currency. 1 345

• 25.06.19

  Last week, at exchange trading, the Russian ruble continued to strengthen against the dollar and the European currency, closing at 63 and 71.61, respectively. The main support for the Russian currency was provided by the inflow of capital, as well as high demand for OFZ. An additional driver of growth was the rise in prices for "black gold", in particular, after hints at a possible expansion of easing measures immediately from a number of the world's largest central banks, ... 1 446

• 25.06.19

  The net demand of Russians for cash foreign currency changed slightly in April of this year compared to March, while the net demand for dollars decreased, and for the euro it increased. This is evidenced by the data of the “Review of the main indicators characterizing the state of the domestic market of foreign currency in cash in April 2019” published by the Central Bank. The total demand of the population for cash foreign currency (the amount purchased in ... 826

• 25.06.19

  After announcing the successful de-dollarization of the Russian banking system in March, the CBR seemed to be celebrating victory early. Although, according to the regulator’s statistics, the dollar assets of banks have decreased by almost a quarter since 2014 and were at a 10-year low ($302.6 billion) by January, in fact, Russian credit organizations simply took part of the currency off the balance sheet to foreign jurisdictions. Analysts of Raiffeisenbank came to this conclusion, ... 1 252

• 25.06.19

  Natalya Milchakova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 277

• 24.06.19

  The Russian currency ended the previous week at levels not seen since 2018 - around 63 rubles per US dollar. 4 132

• 24.06.19

  Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari Information and Analytical Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 399

• 21.06.19

  Reports of possible sanctions on Russia's public debt stirred up the calmness of the Russian currency and led to a decline in the stock market. The ruble, which this year demonstrates phenomenal strength and practically does not react to oil prices, has fallen in price against the dollar by 80 kopecks in just 10 minutes. However, after another 10 minutes, most of the losses were won back. However, the movement was so powerful and fast that premature conclusions can be drawn ... 3 143

• 21.06.19

  Citi advises selling the dollar after the Fed softens its position and predicts further growth in emerging market currencies, including the ruble. Asia: Bank experts recommend buying Asian currencies and, in particular, selling the dollar against the Korean won. In addition, Citi experts remain long the yuan against the dollar. Latin America: Here the main favorite is the Brazilian real. The Chilean peso also looks promising, however... 1 955

• 20.06.19

  The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) did not change the base rate, but actually convinced the market to lower it in the next few months. This alignment should return interest in risky assets, including the Russian currency. The Fed cautiously, but nevertheless, signaled to the markets that it is ready to cut the rate in the coming months in the event of a deterioration in economic forecasts and lower inflation expectations, the chief... 3 227

• 19.06.19

  Georgy Vashchenko, Head of Trading Operations on the Russian Stock Market, IC Freedom Finance, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 667

• 18.06.19

  For the first time in 11 years, banks' foreign currency assets no longer covered their foreign currency liabilities. Is this “gap” dangerous for foreign currency depositors, and how will banks pay their customers if the ruble falls? Since January, bank assets (loans, investments in securities, accounts with other banks, etc.) in foreign currency have ceased to fully cover foreign exchange liabilities (deposits, loans attracted on the interbank market and from the Central Bank, etc.). Turned to this... 2 050

• 18.06.19

  US President Donald Trump on his Twitter accused the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi of manipulating the euro. “Mario Draghi just announced the possibility of additional stimulus, which immediately drove the euro down against the dollar and made it unfairly easier to compete with the US,” he wrote. According to the president, such a policy has been coming off "China and other countries" for years. Draghi said earlier that the ECB could... 960

• 18.06.19

  According to the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, "the dollar is gradually becoming toxic." 829

• 18.06.19

  The interests of investors in the global market are now on the side of the US dollar, which is strengthening against a basket of major currencies. Trade wars have given rise to a trend towards the growth of the US currency, which may threaten the well-being of the ruble in the future. Despite occasional setbacks, the trend has been very clear: the US dollar has gained more than 10 percent over the past year against major world currencies, although it has remained under... 1 050

• 17.06.19

  Petr Pushkarev, Chief Analyst at TeleTrade Group of Companies, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 1 727

• 17.06.19

  Rates on deposits in US currency are still higher than in euros. 1 031

• 14.06.19

  The dollar's position in 2018 weakened, the ECB said: its share in world foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest level since 1999. Russia is one of the leaders in abandoning the US currency. 926

• 13.06.19

  Rates on deposits in dollars and euros will continue to decline, and offers of deposits in "exotic" currencies will become less and less. Against this background, the desire of the Central Bank to reduce the foreign exchange component in the balance sheets of Russian banks may receive positive reinforcement, experts interviewed by RG believe. Ruble deposits still remain attractive, despite the decline in profitability (according to the results of the third decade of May, the average maximum rate of the top 10... 1 018

• 13.06.19

  One of the risks for the Russian economy, which the experts of the World Bank spoke about in their latest report, is capable of pushing the dollar above 90 rubles, predicts Katya Frenkel, head of the analytical department at FinIst. Especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, she analyzed these risks, assessed their likelihood and how they would affect the ruble exchange rate. 2 376



• 13.06.19

  The ruble on the eve managed to strengthen against the dollar and the euro, following the general trend of emerging markets. Its dynamics in the short term and for about the next two months as a whole will depend on the interest of investors in risky assets. The strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday, along with the exchange rates of developing countries, was also due to the fact that the Chinese authorities lowered the reference exchange rate of the Chinese yuan,... 549

• 11.06.19

  Vladimir Rozhankovsky, LIFA, expert of the International Financial Center, especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta: 2 590

The question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future worries not only economists, but also ordinary citizens. Such interest is due, first of all, to the fact that the economic stability of Russia largely depends on the exchange rate of the American currency against the domestic ruble.

This dependence is determined by many external and internal factors, the main of which are the price of oil and gas on the world market, as well as currency quotes on the stock market. What forecasts do experts make regarding the US dollar for 2018, let's try to figure it out in this review.

What is the trend of the dollar in the near future?

In 2017, the US dollar appreciated significantly. This was influenced by several events at once:

• approval by the House of Representatives of the tax reform adopted in the Senate on December 19 last year;
• increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve System (FRS);
• implementation of the Fed's project aimed at reducing the cash dollar supply;
• US President Donald Trump signed a bill to ease the taxation of citizens.

In addition, European countries have recently experienced an economic downturn associated with a crisis within the conglomerate (the intentions of some states to leave the European Union were announced), an increase in unemployment, and an influx of a large number of Muslim refugees from the warring powers. All this contributes to the depreciation of the euro and at the same time the strengthening of the dollar in the global financial market.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2018

As the demand for dollar mass in the world continues to increase, the United States currency will only strengthen in the near future. This is precisely the forecast made by reputable international experts for the spring of 2018. As for the dollar-ruble ratio, the oil price is considered to be the main factor of influence here, since Russia is one of the largest suppliers of “black gold” in the world.

Predictions for the current spring based on the forecasts of leading stock analysts (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• March - 58.35
• April - 59.87
• May - 61.23

At the same time, some experts predict that with the victory of V.V. Putin in the presidential elections on March 18, 2018, the growth of the domestic currency or its stabilization is also possible. Which of the financiers was right, the near future will show.

Expert forecast for summer 2018

The opinions of economists regarding the exchange rate of the RUB / USD pair for the summer of 2018 are divided:

• Some experts predict the quotation of the domestic currency at a level not exceeding 56 rubles. per dollar.
• Other experts say that the US money exchange rate in the summer will fluctuate in the range from 57 to 62 rubles.

By months, it may look like this (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• June - 61.89
• July - 62.93
• August - 60.88

Dollar exchange rate forecast for autumn 2018

The forecast for the autumn for the monetary unit of Russia in relation to the US currency will largely depend not only on the price of oil and gas, but also on how fruitful this season will be. Economic analysts make the following predictions for this period (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• September - 62.98
• October - 61.25
• november

$ exchange rate at the end of 2018

The end of 2018 will be marked by the following important financial events.

• • Scenario #1 - Optimistic Scenario
  • Scenario #2 - Anxious Scenario
  • Scenario #3 - Realistic Scenario
• • Ruble Growth Factors
  • Factors of the fall of the ruble
• • Question 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?
  • Question 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?
  • Question 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)?
• 8. Conclusion

The economic situation in the country is now so unstable that it cannot but cause concern among Russian citizens. The very stability of the national currency is constantly alarming. Someone is worried about their financial savings, someone is worried about the constantly rising prices for food and essential goods, while others are simply worried about the level of well-being of their own family. But, in any case, there are no indifferent Russians in such a situation. So, what will happen to the ruble in 2019-2020? What will happen to the dollar, how much will it cost? Even many well-known and experienced experts do not undertake to make accurate predictions.

There are opinions that our currency will gradually strengthen and its positions will become stable. But, on the other hand, we hear constant statements that its imminent collapse is also possible against the backdrop of an already existing crisis (read more about the crisis in Russia).

Hence the questions arise:

• What and who to believe?
• How to plan your own budget? in such situation?
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future?
• What will happen to the dollar in the near future?

Of course, it is clear that the exchange rate of our ruble is dependent on oil prices, and, as you know, it is now falling. An important role in shaping the course is also played by the sanctions that are carried out by Western countries. Even relying on the level of inflation and the policy of the Central Bank, it is simply not possible to intuitively predict how the situation will develop in the near future. Let's try to thoroughly understand this article of the website GdeIkakazarabotat.ru.

Let's figure out what will happen to the ruble and dollar in the near future, what forecasts are given by experts, their opinions

1. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 - development scenarios + expert opinions

Based on the latest statistics, it becomes clear that the ruble has already fallen by 18,9% , and the development of an unfavorable situation in the east of Ukraine and in Syria only aggravates these forecasts. At the same time, the attempt of the Central Bank to influence the foreign exchange market and the exchange rate one-time by working with foreign currency did not bring the expected results.

And, according to officials, now there are only indirect methods of monetary policy that allow you to directly influence the ruble exchange rate. The basis of this, will be a set of measures to directly control the level of inflation in our country.

Based on the opinions of experts, on the question of what will happen to the ruble in the near future, we can single out 3 main scenarios development of events.

Scenario #1 - Optimistic Scenario

If you believe in the most pleasant forecasts, then Russia is now on a direct path to recovery. This is facilitated by the promise of our government to indicate high economic growth in 2019 and the mark of the expected price per barrel of oil in Asian countries at around $95, and the dollar itself should return to a value of 30-40 rubles.

Moreover, by the spring of 2019, it is planned to lift the economic sanctions of Western countries. All this will result in GDP growth, which will eventually be 0,3-0,6% .

Scenario #2 - Anxious Scenario

Periodic collapses of the oil market testify only to worsening forecasts for the future regarding the dynamics of the dollar. This is consistent with the statistics. Indeed, back in July 2015, the value of one dollar was equal to 58 rubles, and now its growth has amounted to 17 rubles, and eventually led to a figure of 75 rubles.

Yes, and in the plans of our government, according to some experts, no work is planned to strengthen the weakening national currency. The main emphasis is placed on the optimal development of exports.

But now, next year, the ruble will become sure to lose their positions.

In this case, there are 2 main real reasons:

1. Firstly, there is a sharp decline in oil prices on world markets. It is known that it is this gas and natural gas that are actively exported and bring considerable income. The same situation is observed in other regions of the world, such as Japan, USA, Europe.
2. Secondly, this is the influence of geopolitics. Not so long ago, the annexation of Crimea actively caused the outflow of huge capital from Russia. And the ever-increasing waves of sanctions from Western countries only increase their influence on the depreciation of the ruble.

As a result, we will come to a moderate, but not critical decline in GDP growth, which will be 3-3.5%, and the dollar will be equal to 50-65 rubles.

Scenario #3 - Realistic Scenario

What will happen in reality? The situation with sanctions will not change much. According to the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU countries decided to keep them. It becomes clear that they will remain at the same level. But, given the conflict situation with Ukraine and its active development, in the event of a possible aggravation, sanctions will most likely be strengthened.

With regard to the price of oil, we can say that in the future it will remain the same, and will amount to 60-80 dollars per barrel. But, the level of our GDP will remain zero (According to the forecasts of the World Bank, Russia's GDP in 2019 will be negative - the fall will be about 0.7 - 1%).

What will happen to the ruble, dollar - forecasts and expert opinions

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3. What will happen to the dollar in 2020 - expert opinion - expert forecasts of the ruble exchange rate

As mentioned earlier, experts cannot come to one common opinion and give unambiguous forecasts. But, nevertheless, it is now clear that 2019 and 2020 will be a huge test not only for our economy in general, but also for the position of the ruble in particular.

So, for example, Alexey Kudrin , who previously held the post of Minister of Finance of our country, believes that the Russian economy will be subject to a serious collapse. As a result, this will not only affect the depreciation of the ruble, but will also leave a huge imprint on the purchasing power of citizens.

I agree with him and Vladimir Tikhomirov , who is a contemporary economist. Vladimir argues that the level of stability achieved at the moment is only a temporary phenomenon, and will result in a huge collapse of the Russian currency.

Even taking into account the fact that at the October forum held in Sochi Alexey Ulyukaev , head of the Ministry of Economic Development, confirmed his forecast for 2019, where the level dollar will be 63.5 rubles, many simply do not agree with him.

So, Nicholas Solabuto , the head of the Finam Management organization predicts a fall national currency and significant growth of the American up to 200 rubles . He attributes this to the fact that the cost of oil will begin to actively decline over the course of several months.

That's Igor Nikolaev , who now runs the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis, insists that the ruble will continue to lose ground. So, in his opinion, by the beginning of December, we will see that in relation to the dollar the cost will be equal to 60 rubles, and in relation to the euro already 70.

Igor connects this situation with the following factors:

• national economy. The expert believes that this branch of our development has a certain weakness and fully depends on the outside world. It simply cannot actively develop on its own.
• Sanctions. According to the nearest forecasts, their action will last at least until 2020.
• Oil . The cost of "black gold", according to Nikolaev, will constantly decline for a long time. He attributes this to competitive supplies of the product from the US and OPEC countries.
• US Federal Reserve. The expert suggests that her policy will be seriously linked to quantitative easing measures.

Igor Nikolaev believes that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is currently doing everything right. The policy pursued by him is quite correct and there is no need to subject it to logical rethinking. But, with all this, the loss of positions of the ruble exchange rate cannot be stopped now. According to him, in order to stabilize such a situation, it is important first of all to eliminate the factors he named earlier. They actively influence the fall of the national currency.

Based on opinions Vitaly Kulagin , a modern financial analyst, we see more optimistic pleasant forecasts . The specialist believes that the price that the ruble has reached at the moment can be confidently called simply the minimum. It is like a starting point, giving further growth. In his opinion, by the end of 2019 - the beginning of 2020, the exchange rate will be able to gradually adapt to the current situation and stabilize in it.

Before trusting and agreeing with the opinions of various experts, it is worthwhile to clearly understand for yourself which main factors have an impact on the fall, and which ones on the strengthening of our currency.

Consider why the ruble is falling and growing and what will happen to the dollar

4. Factors of growth and fall of the ruble

In light of recent events, every Russian now follows the movement of the Russian currency, which in turn depends on various factors. And, if there are some additional savings that are important not only to properly preserve, but also to increase, the issue becomes the most relevant. Let's try to figure this out.

Ruble Growth Factors

Of the variety of reasons that have a positive effect on the growth of the national currency, the following can be mentioned:

1. The cost of oil. Even from school textbooks, we know that a huge amount of oil is produced in Russia, which is spent not only for its own needs, but also for export. Rescuing profit from such an operation, we actively form the budget of our own country, so there is a direct dependence on its prices. That is, if the cost increases, then the income from the sale will increase accordingly.
2. State policy. This area of ​​activity also has a direct impact on monetary growth. Certainly, it is clear that many political decisions taken by our leadership, in turn, become a rational basis for the development of Russia.
3. The relationship of the population with the ruble. It would seem, what influence can such a factor have? Actually, very simple. The level of confidence of the country's residents in the ruble is reflected directly in their own deposits. And the more such attraction there is, the more confident our national currency will feel. The exchange rate of the ruble will not only increase, but will also lead to an increase in lending to the economy.(Where to invest money so as not to lose). Moreover, the contributions of not only Russians are important here, but also the positive attraction of foreign citizens in rubles. Such investment operations will contribute to the development of the national economy. It is clear that such a situation would be ideal. But, unfortunately, at the moment we are failing to convince foreign investors of our own stability. Therefore, strengthening one's own course becomes the basis of the state's activity.
4. Attraction in securities. This is a tool that is currently very poorly developed and gives little results. But still, positive actions in relation to this area will also contribute to the growth of economic indicators and work with foreign partners. The fact is that in Russia there are companies, investing in the securities of which, foreign investors are able to receive significant profits for themselves, which ultimately becomes a good factor for strengthening the position of the ruble.
5. Increasing the pace of production. Work in this direction will allow the Russian manufacturer not only to increase the volume of planned production, but also to export goods outside their own country. Thus, by attracting foreign currency to Russian banks, the constant growth of the ruble will be ensured and, accordingly, the well-being of the population will improve. Saturation of our country with quality goods and services will improve the performance of the economy and consolidate the stability of its position in front of other countries.

Factors of the fall of the ruble

But, in turn, with positive factors, the reasons that negatively affect the growth of the ruble, forcing it fall against the currencies of other countries.

At the same time, our leadership should not only clearly identify them, but also significantly reduce the influence of each. Of the main ones, the following can be mentioned:

1. The level of value of foreign currency. In this case, it is the currency that has a significant weight in the global financial market that is indicated. Influencing this factor is not only very difficult, but practically impossible. The fact is that any advanced country, just like Russia, confidently monitors the exchange rate of its own currency and does everything possible to strengthen it. Such a policy is developing with respect to the dollar. When the United States takes a set of measures to maintain its own stability, the ruble falls and it is simply not possible to influence such foreign measures by all means of the Russian economy.
2. The movement of Russian capital. It would be more accurate to say its outflow to other countries. This is, as it were, the consequences of the influence of the first factor. The fact is that the shaky position of the ruble makes it reasonable to transfer the funds of Russian investors into foreign currency. This happens not only in order to preserve equity, but also to significantly increase it. Giving away our cash reserves to foreign countries, transferring them to offshore zones, we ourselves form the direction of the ruble's fall, ensuring a direct capital outflow. And, as a consequence, this situation entails a lack of investment in the Russian economy. The direction of this activity is simply not attractive.
3. The game of Russians with exchange rates. The fact is that not only large investors, but also ordinary people, who regularly look through news and foreign currency appreciation rates, wanting to earn some money, invest their own funds not in rubles, but mostly in dollar And Euro. Thus, they provide themselves with the most favorable currency in which to store their own funds. Noted that in moments of strong depreciation of the ruble, large transfers of money were carried out into other types of currencies, which, although artificial, nevertheless, creates a situation of further depreciation of our exchange rate. This also confirms the fact that Russians lack confidence in their own government. And all the assurances that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize do not find their confirmation and even more cause not only doubts, but in some cases also fears.
4. actions of the Central Bank. This factor is due to the fact that when the ruble falls, the Central Bank of Russia does not use the opportunity to invest its own funds in dollars in interbank trading. This situation could not only reduce the fall of the national currency, but also slow down its pace.
5. Gross domestic product. Producing a small share of domestic goods, the GDP slows down significantly. The fact is that profiting from the sale of such a small volume, the money is basically only enough to pay employees and ensure a small level of inflation. All this leads to the moment that the population of our country simply ceases to trust the domestic manufacturer and buys foreign-made goods. In fact, our own developed technologies just stand still, and we use that equipment in production. Which was relevant 20 years ago, without updating it for many years.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor follows from the previous one. Moreover, when buying foreign-made goods, we pay attention to their modernity, convenience, and a number of other factors that attract in this purchase. Thus, giving preference to them, we reduce the balance of payments of our own country and directly affect the fall of our own currency.

Read also - - definition, meaning, consequences "

5. Oil forecast for 2019 and 2020

We offer you to familiarize yourself with the graph of the dependence of the cost of the ruble on the cost of oil. (If oil falls, the dollar rises, if oil rises, the dollar falls and the ruble rises)

Graph of the dependence of the ruble on oil

According to the forecasts of VneshEkonomBank, a barrel of oil in 2019-2020 will cost $80. According to the technical analysis, there are resistance levels in the $70 area and a support level in the $42 area. When these levels are broken, it is pointless to predict the cost of oil, it can be as much as you like. Since, at the beginning of 2019, the price of oil is already at an 11-year low and has broken through the level 33 $ per barrel.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: forecasts from leading banks - latest news

For a very long time, a period has been going on in which the exchange rate of the ruble against foreign currency, and specifically dollar And Euro changes a lot. We are not the only country where such fluctuations have been noted during the development of our own economy. But, unfortunately, only the national currency of Russia suffers more actively than others.

If the support level of the ruble / dollar (60 rubles) is broken down, the dollar will go to the range of 54-55 rubles, if the ruble breaks up, 65 rubles per dollar, the dollar will be traded in the region of 72-75 rubles. If there is a confident break through the level 72 and 80 rubles, then the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar can cost anything.

After all, analyzing the received data, the ruble has recently lost almost half of its value. By expanding our activities and increasing our foreign policy role, we thereby attract the great attention of various experts, including mostly foreign ones, and force them to monitor our economic indicators and predict the future situation in relation to other countries.

At the same time, there are no indifferent opinions about the Russian ruble. It is clear that minor fluctuations, so to speak, one-time, can be associated with even the most elementary foreign policy events.

This, For example, is associated with the regular speeches of the president or the signing of international treaties by him. But, more significant fluctuation intervals of the Russian ruble naturally depend directly on oil prices, as mentioned earlier. This connection has always been strong and will continue to be so in our future.

If you turn to the opinions of various experts and look for their forecasts for various future periods, you can find not only the information itself, but also certain formulas by which the corresponding calculations are made. (We also recommend reading our article - - expert advice)

But, trust in this case, only very large financial organizations and special specialized state structures that are seriously involved in the development and study of such issues are worth it. Working through their reports, it is clear that, for example, the World Bank has been giving a fairly clear forecast of economic indicators for our country for a long time.

This scenario is very favorable for us and gives us optimistic hopes, allowing us to build our own plans. So, by the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020, the cost of a barrel of oil will be $58, but by the middle of 2020, it will rise to $63 and in 2021 the rate of increase will not decrease.

As for our main currency, it will strengthen against the dollar and become equal to by the middle of 2020 58 rubles.

Elvira Nabiullina - Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation gave positive forecasts. In her interview, which took place on the Russian TV channel "Russia 24", she spoke openly about the development of the Russian economy, its immediate plans and prospects.

According to her, the political actions of the Federal Reserve of a country like the United States are also aimed at strengthening the American currency, but this is not so scary, because in the end it will still lead to the maintenance of the main exchange rates of many developing countries, including ours. And, although she did not name any figures regarding the price of the ruble, she expressed confidence that everything would stabilize.

Nabiullina expressed 3 main reasons, which, in her opinion, contributed to the result of 2014, when there was a sharp fall in the ruble.

They can be formed like this:

• the need for Russia to make huge foreign economic payments;
• lower oil prices;
• the presence of significant restrictions on access to financial markets for our country.

If we now turn our attention to Vnesheconombank forecasts , then its analysts suggest that oil exporting countries, with their deteriorating national budgets, will begin to actively raise oil prices and eventually come to comfortable indicators for us in 2019, stopping at the level of $80 per barrel .

This situation will of course entail a change in the dollar. According to all the same indicators of Vnesheconombank’s reports, its value against our national currency will be equal to 61 rubles by the end of this (2019) year, and in 2018-2019 years the dollar will be at the mark 53-55 rubles.

One very famous and practically the largest investment bank in the world Goldman Sachs he was also puzzled by the ruble exchange rate and made his own forecast, confirming it with a report. Judging by these indicators, by 2019, 1 dollar will cost 60 rubles. and, as for oil, and its most popular Brent brand, the cost of 1 barrel will fluctuate for a long time, but, in the end, it will stop at a significant mark of $70. this will happen as early as 2019 and will last until 2020.

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7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar

Here we will consider issues that are not included in the main section of the article.

Question 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?

The state took a course to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. But it is impossible to take and cancel the circulation of the dollar in the state, since the entire financial system of the world is built on the basis of the US currency. A gradual reduction in turnover, albeit in small sectors of the economy, can lead to an increase in the national currency.

So, for example, the sale and sale of natural resources of the Russian Federation for the national currency, and not for dollars, can significantly lower the price of the dollar against the ruble. If all major countries, such as China, the Russian Federation and others, decide in an instant that they need to get rid of dollars, they start selling US debt (Treasury bonds), the US financial system, and the entire system as a whole, will collapse, and a financial collapse will come. Therefore, a gradual decrease in dollar turnover is the correct course of Russia.

But on the other hand, as long as the Central Bank of Russia is a "representation" of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), there is no need to talk about any stabilization and economic growth.

Question 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

Let's look at an example of how to do analysis and forecast courses. Fundamental analysis (news, politics, etc. will not be taken into account, as these are unpredictable events and it is useless to make forecasts).

Resistance - 66 and 69-72 rubles - it will be difficult to break through them. Support - 59 (60) and 56 (57) rubles Forecast of the ruble against the dollar for the next week- breaking through the downtrend (from 71 rubles to 64 rubles) and leaving the ruble in the range to 75-80 rubles, since there are no reasons for strengthening and it is not expected in the near future

Question 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)?

Before, how to discuss the issue of the fall of the dollar when exactly this happens, it is worth noting that the national exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate of the ruble will mainly depend on the amount of investment in the Russian economy.

These factors also affect the exchange rate of the US, including the balance of US imports and exports. Speaking of the last two factors, it is also necessary to take into account the US national debt, which is the largest in the world.

In addition to external debt, the United States of America also has an internal debt of the country, which is also constantly growing. Based on the above factors in general (a huge budget deficit), a situation is created when the value of the dollar in the world economy should fall, which should directly affect the USD exchange rate.

But questions arise why the dollar does not collapse, does not catastrophically “go to the bottom”, the forecasts of analysts and experts about the collapse of the dollar do not come true, and for what reasons does the US currency remain the most converted, liquid and reliable currency? Is it worth keeping an eye on the US currency, how will this currency fall and collapse, and under what circumstances is this possible? What to do if the dollar falls anyway?

Before discussing the issue of falling, it is necessary to consider what currency can replace the American one. Is there such a currency in the world that will perform the same functions as the dollar does?

Many Experts and analysts cite the Eurozone currency as a replacement for the US currency. But we should not forget that the Euro is a young currency that has not been tested by time, which also largely depends on the US currency, especially since Euro going through hard times right now. Many European countries are already in crisis because of their debts, this includes countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. Largely due to the foreign debt of the United States, which owes these countries.

Despite all these factors, the US dollar is depreciating quite rapidly. The state of the dollar would have been much worse if not for the crisis in 2008-2009, when many countries of the economy were on the verge of default. But even during the crisis, when all assets began to fall in price, including real estate, etc., the dollar remained the only currency that had a stable balance.

Before looking for answers to questions about the decline in the value of the US dollar, it is important to find out what is driving its growth and constant demand from the outside. To save your money, you need to diversify your investments. As a rule, a currency basket is the most optimal way. Since the US dollar is a constituent currency of many countries, including Russia, China, Brazil, etc., the demand for the US currency is high.

The US government does a lot to maintain the exchange rate of its national currency. There are rumors that the economic crisis was inflated by the US Federal Reserve, as at that time the dollar (usd) was on the brink.

To support the US economy, the Fed has undertaken to launch a "money printing machine". During this time, since 2008, many billions - trillions of dollars have been printed, but as long as demand remains, the US currency will not fall.

From here we can assume situations when the dollar can collapse:

1. dollar can fell if all countries start selling treasury bonds (bought by countries to support their economies);
2. Will stop use dollars for mutual settlements. (Russia has already started selling grain to Iran in exchange for other goods without the dollar). Previously, this was impossible to do, it was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and for dollars from another country the necessary goods and services. If countries stop paying in their national currencies (for rubles, yuan, etc.), the need for dollars will be minimal, which may cause the dollar to fall due to low demand.

Therefore, the United States is trying in every possible way to keep its currency demanded . After all, it is not in vain that the United States is the organizer of economic crises, organizations military conflicts(including Russia, Syria, Ukraine, etc.)

Why wait for the dollar to collapse? 10 rubles, he navryatle will already be. Why tie your life to these courses, if you can learn how to make money on the Internet once, and forget about what is falling, what is growing.

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* Our forecast for the dollar in the near future

On January 7, 2016, judging by the cost of oil and the situation in the economy, it can be assumed that the dollar will rise again. So, technical analysis of the usd/rub chart

The level has been broken 71-72 rubles, nearest resistance - 80 rubles. (resistance is weak), so forecasted ruble exchange rate against the dollar 100 - 115 rubles.

On February 7, 2016, there is a direct dependence on the cost of a barrel of oil.

Support for the dollar - 72 rubles, 75 rubles. Resistance - 80 rubles, 78 rubles.

See also video - Stepan Demura - Neuromir TV - dollar / ruble exchange rate

8. Conclusion

Analyzing all the previously given indicators, it becomes clear that the largest banks give the most positive forecasts for our currency and unanimously affirm the positions of its strengthening. This is a great start for the Russian ruble. And, although the process itself will be lengthy and gradual, but with a certain amount of patience, we will still come to indicators of its stability with reasonably ensuing consequences.

But no matter how rosy the prospects are now, it is worth realizing that a number of factors may arise that change the economic situation of the country. Thus, according to official statistics, Russia spent the last year and a half one hundred and fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves (GFR).

And, although the process of reducing gold reserves was suspended, but this is only for a while. It is quite possible that those who set oil prices will continue such spending. Therefore, relying only on expert forecasts is not worth it..

I really want to achieve stabilization of the exchange rate, many are already tired of asking questions: “What will happen to the dollar in the near future”, “What will happen to the dollar”, etc., I would like to hope for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions, increase the purchasing power of their own population and achieve the best performance of the Russian economy, but you need to be realistic and draw your own conclusions from the current situation.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

Scenario 1 - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2019.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current position.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula led to a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that conditionally the factors for the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only domestic , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

What internal and external factors will support the ruble in March, and what, on the contrary, could weaken the national currency? AiF.ru asked this question to financial experts.

March is a positive month for the ruble

Irina Komarova, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Russian University of Economics G. V. Plekhanova: “March promises optimistic prospects for the ruble. The positive dynamics of industrial production, the acceleration of the growth of freight turnover of rail transport and air transportation, the expansion of retail sales of goods for both current and long-term consumption - all this indicates the recovery of the Russian economy. One of the key indicators of business sentiment - the PMI index - hit a multi-year high, which gives hope for further expansion of investment spending in the corporate sector.

The state of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation also plays in favor of the ruble: the growth of the current account surplus. Finally, another important factor for the further strengthening of the Russian currency was the increase by S&P of Russia's credit rating to investment grade.

Now for the deterrents. This is primarily the policy of the Central Bank, which implies a further reduction in interest rates, after which the national currency weakens.

Serious fluctuations from the dollar and the euro in March should not be expected. The dollar exchange rate will fluctuate around the mark of 56 rubles.

The euro exchange rate in March will be very sensitive to changes in the economic and political situation in the region. Several important events are scheduled for March in the eurozone: these are elections in Italy, summing up the results of the vote of the Social Democrats in Germany, as well as a possible revision of ECB interest rates. In conditions of high uncertainty of outcomes, it is not necessary to expect upward dynamics from the euro exchange rate. At the same time, favorable data on economic activity in the eurozone will not allow the euro to roll back below the mark of 68 rubles.”

All eyes on the USA

Stanislav Werner, head of analytical department Dominion: “In March, a curious situation may arise: against the backdrop of a strong balance of payments traditional for the first quarter and an increase in oil prices, the ruble may fall in price against the dollar. Nothing dramatic: the rate may simply lose the achievements of February, pulling up to the highs since the beginning of the year: 57.80 rubles. And the reason for this will be events in foreign markets, which have no direct relation to Russia. Namely, the highest growth rates of the world economy over the past ten years, which are forcing the world's leading central banks to gradually reduce the amount of incentives introduced during the crisis years.

The American Federal Reserve is leading this process: in March, it can raise the key interest rate for the first time this year. Against the backdrop of rising interest rates, capital will flow to the United States, and Russia, with its high oil prices, will no longer be so interesting for foreign investors. The difference in interest rates due to the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia will continue to melt, which may provoke a partial withdrawal of foreign money, which has helped the ruble to strengthen significantly over the past two years.

The scope of this trend will be limited by high oil prices, which in recent days have signaled a readiness to return to annual highs. Shale oil production has not yet completely absorbed the entire increase in demand.

Relative to the euro, the ruble will not fundamentally change in March, as the dollar will push the single European currency as well. The euro / ruble exchange rate can be expected in the range of 67.5-70 rubles.

The growth of GDP, oil and foreign trade will support the ruble

Elena Krylova, Head of the Department of Financial and Economic Disciplines, Moscow University for the Humanities (MosGU), Ph.D. n.: “This year, the ruble is highly likely to stabilize due to institutional factors (elections) and the policy of the Central Bank. The expected range for the dollar is 56-61 rubles. And March will be the most active period of this dynamics.

The standard factors for the strengthening of the ruble are the same. First, oil prices. Raw materials will rise in price, the influx of foreign currency will grow along with oil prices, thereby creating an oversupply, which by itself will work to strengthen the Russian currency.

Secondly, the growth of foreign trade volumes. Its volumes increased by a quarter last year, exports are growing faster than imports. Again, there is an excess of currency, which stimulates the ruble.

Thirdly, GDP growth by 2%. The volumes of the national economy are slowly growing, which also supports the Russian currency.”

Only sanctions can weaken the ruble

Georgy Vashchenko, Head of Operations on the Russian Stock Market, Freedom Finance Investment Company: “I expect relatively calm dynamics in the foreign exchange market. I focus mainly on the range of 55.5-57.5 rubles per dollar. This is due to the rebound in oil prices, the influx of new investor funds and the absence of negative external events. The only thing that could negatively affect the ruble and the stock market is new sanctions, if they are announced. But their impact on the economy as a whole is weak.”

The US Fed will strengthen the dollar

Roman Blinov, expert at International Financial Center: “If you pay attention to the recent speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, we can conclude that the period of strengthening the dollar. Naturally, this will also affect the Russian currency.

A huge number of investors from all over the world are waiting for the US Federal Reserve to once again revise the level of the base discount rate in March 2018. In the current favorable economic conditions, the Fed intends to make every effort to avoid overheating the economy, gradually increasing the cost of lending to the economy. Today it is assumed that the trajectory of the rate increase will be very smooth, so that inflation in the medium term has time to recover to the target level of 2% per annum.

The main burden on the ruble may fall on March 20-21, when the rate will be raised in the United States. This will stimulate demand for the dollar, increase its exchange rate, and the ruble, on the contrary, will weaken.

Nevertheless, there are factors due to which the Russian currency will strengthen. These are stable oil prices and the general interest of foreign investors in Russian assets.”

Under oil pressure

Sergey Kozlovsky, head of the analytical department at Grand Capital: “Growing uncertainty while maintaining balance in the oil market increases tension, which leads to a correction in commodity prices. We saw the first negative impulse in early February, when oil corrected by more than 10%. If OPEC+ does not develop an additional package of measures to regulate supply volumes in March, oil correction will continue. This means that the ruble will also be under pressure.

An additional negative factor in March will be the expected intervention of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, aimed at weakening the ruble. Does not support the Russian currency and a decrease in interest from investors-carry traders due to the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia.

Additional pressure on the ruble pairs will come from the expected strengthening of the euro and the US dollar on the foreign exchange market due to positive statistics from the eurozone and the US, respectively.

Expected exchange rates by the end of March: 59 rubles per dollar and 70 rubles per euro.