Trends in the development of the global financial system at the present stage. Prospects for the development of international monetary and financial relations General characteristics of the work

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Introduction

Currently, almost all countries take advantage of the international division of labor, specialization and cooperation. The increasing internationalization of production is forcing enterprises, government banks and individuals to enter the global market.

Operating principles economic entity in the foreign market differ in many ways from the principles of its work in the domestic market. That is why, when entering the international market, it is necessary to take into account a huge number of economic and political circumstances. In particular, in the foreign market, an enterprise is faced with a large number of currencies, the need to pay for its obligations with acceptable means of payment, assess all kinds of risks that arise when carrying out foreign economic activity, as well as follow the requirements and recommendations of international institutions, conventions and treaties.

The purpose of the work is to determine the prospects for the development of international monetary and financial relations. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks were set and solved:

1. Study the essence and structure of the World Monetary System.

2. Explore the features of the formation and stages of development of the World Monetary System.

3. Determine the prospects for the development of the World Monetary System.

The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that currency systems mediate currency relations that provide the necessary conditions for reproduction within the world economy. The theoretical basis of the work was the works of domestic economists: L.N. Krasavina, E.G. Avdeeva, I.P. Nikolaeva and others.

When carrying out the work, textbooks and teaching aids on economic theory, macroeconomics, international monetary and financial relations and international economic relations, periodical articles, and monographs by economic theorists were used.

1. Essence, objectives and functions of the world monetary system

Before trying to give a reasonable and clear definition of the World Monetary System (WMS), it is necessary to correctly define international monetary relations, that is, those relations that underlie this system. However, it is impossible to define the relationship without considering key concepts such as “currency” and “currency relations.”

Currency (from Italian valuta - price, cost, English currency) is the country's monetary unit used in international transactions. Accordingly, the national currency is the currency established by the legislation of a given state.

As a result of the emergence of currencies, certain relations emerged, called currency relations. Currency relations are activities related to the functioning of international (world) money.

International monetary relations are a set of social relations that develop during the functioning of currency in the world economy and ensure the mutual exchange of results from the activities of national economies. Creating an effective monetary mechanism for the smooth implementation of global economic relations has become the central task of the international financial system.

Thus, having explained a little the meaning and features of international monetary relations, we can define the monetary system.

The currency system is a form of organization and regulation of currency relations, enshrined in national legislation or interstate agreements. There are national, global and regional currency systems.

Historically, national currency systems arose first, enshrined in national legislation, taking into account the norms of international law. The national currency system is an integral part of the country's monetary system, although it is relatively independent and goes beyond national borders. The national currency system is inextricably linked with the World Monetary System.

The world monetary system is a historically established form of organization of international monetary relations, secured by interstate agreements. The MVS developed by the middle of the 19th century. The main task of the international monetary system is to regulate the sphere of international payments and foreign exchange markets to ensure sustainable economic growth, curb inflation, maintain the balance of foreign economic exchange and payment turnover of different countries. At this stage of development of the MVS, the main functions it performs are the following:

1. Mediation of international economic relations, that is, ensuring cooperation between states in economic matters, their cooperation in solving certain problems and achieving specific goals.

2. Ensuring payment and settlement turnover within the global economy. This function defines the MFR as a universal set of tools for financial agreement between countries, since it is the MFR that allows countries with different monetary units to conduct settlements.

3. Providing the necessary conditions for the normal reproduction process and uninterrupted sale of manufactured goods.

4. Regulation and coordination of the regimes of national currency systems, namely their successful interaction.

The nature of the functioning and stability of the IMF depend on the degree of compliance of its principles with the structure of the world economy, the balance of power and the interests of leading countries. When these conditions change, a periodic crisis of the international financial system arises, which ends with its collapse and the creation of a new currency system.

2. Features of the formation and stages of development of the world monetary system

2.1 From gold coin to gold exchange standard

The world monetary system is a historically established form of organization of international monetary relations, secured by interstate agreements. That is, the monetary units of different countries, each of which has its own national “uniform,” mediate the process of international movement of goods, services, capital and labor.

The first world monetary system spontaneously formed in 1816 in Great Britain. Legally, it was formalized by an interstate agreement at the Paris Conference in 1867. In the book by A.V. Anikin’s “Gold” states that, according to J. Galbraith, “legally, gold was recognized as the only form of world money at one rather little-known conference in Paris in 1867.” This organization of the monetary circulation system and international settlements presupposed the assignment of monetary functions to gold and the official establishment of a fixed gold parity of the national monetary unit. The established gold parity was also the official price of gold. Gold coins were in circulation and had the force of legal tender. Central banks were required to exchange paper money for gold at par. Free import and export of gold in any form was allowed. Exchange rates of countries were fixed on the basis of gold parities of national currencies and fluctuated only within narrow limits of “golden points”, which were determined by the costs (mainly transportation and insurance) associated with the movement of gold between countries.

Under the gold standard, regulation of the balance of payments was carried out mainly spontaneously through the transfer of gold from one country to another through private channels. The state practically did not participate in the process of regulating international payments, and official gold reserves were the main regulator of the imbalance in the balance of payments.

Following the monetary chaos resulting from the First World War, a gold exchange standard was established, based on gold and leading currencies convertible into gold. Payment instruments in foreign currency intended for international payments began to be called mottos. The Second World Monetary System was legally formalized by an interstate agreement reached at the Genoa International Economic Conference in 1922. Its basis was gold and slogans - foreign currencies. After the First World War, the monetary and financial center moved from Western Europe to the United States. This was due to the following. The monetary and economic potential of the United States has increased significantly, and capital exports have increased. In 1924, there was a redistribution of official gold reserves: 46% of the gold reserves of capitalist countries were concentrated in the United States. The United States launched a struggle for the hegemony of the dollar, but it received reserve currency status only after the Second World War.

The achieved currency stabilization was blown up by the global crisis of the 30s.

The gold standard system corresponded to the conditions of a free competitive market. The functioning of the mechanism of international monetary settlements, based on the gold standard, was of great importance for the expansion of international economic relations and the formation of a single world economy. At the same time, the monetary and exchange rate system of the gold standard began to counteract the concentration and centralization of capital, interfere with pricing practices, prevent the covering of sharply increased internal and external government expenses by issuing paper funds, and finally, impede international trade and the export of capital abroad. Manipulating the exchange rate by devaluing or revaluing a currency, changing the discount rate, pursuing inflationary or deflationary policies to regulate the movement of goods, services and capital. The use of international loans and credits - all this made it possible to maintain balances of payments to a certain extent temporarily balanced and to postpone the repayment of the negative balance (at the expense of gold reserves) for an indefinite period. As a result, it became clear that the regular resumption of economic relations between partners of different countries makes it possible and necessary for them to accumulate foreign currency both in cash and non-cash forms as a kind of reserve for quickly repaying its obligations to the partners of the country with a given national currency. Hence the emergence of a structural crisis, and then, during the world economic crisis of 1929-1933, the destruction of the gold standard mechanism.

2.2 Bretton Woods monetary system

The development of a project for a new world monetary system began in April 1942, as countries feared shocks similar to the currency crisis of the First World War in the 30s. At an international conference held in 1944 in Bretton Woods (USA), the basic principles of a new international monetary and financial system, which became known as the Bretton Woods system, were agreed upon. These principles were codified in the Articles of Agreement (charter) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adopted at the Bretton Woods conference. The main characteristic features of the Bretton Woods monetary system were that: gold retained its monopoly on final monetary settlements between countries, that is, on performing the function of universal means of payment; however, the scale of the use of gold for the actual servicing of international circulation and its regulatory role in this area has decreased significantly. Along with gold, two national paper currencies - the American dollar and the British pound sterling (to a much smaller extent) were widely used in world circulation as international credit means of payment, instruments of settlement for balances of payments and reserve currencies. Reserve currencies could be exchanged for gold.

The exchange rate relationship between currencies and their convertibility began to be carried out on the basis of fixed currency parities, expressed in dollars. Market exchange rates should not deviate up or down from the fixed official dollar parities of these currencies by more than 1%, that is, all capitalist currencies were strictly “pegged” to the dollar. Devaluation of more than 10% was allowed only with the permission of the fund.

Government bodies exercised some control over the functioning of the mechanism of international payments and private foreign exchange turnover. Plus, government agencies regulated the gold market, supporting the foreign exchange price of gold on the market through sales of metal from their reserves or its purchase, preventing it from significantly deviating from the official price level.

At the same time, for the first time in history, international monetary and credit organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) were created. Interstate regulation of currency relations and coordination of monetary policy were carried out through the IMF. The IMF also provided loans in foreign currency to cover the balance of payments deficit in order to support unstable currencies, and ensured foreign exchange cooperation between countries. The IMF ensured that participating countries observed a single code of principles of “international monetary cooperation” and that they maintained official currency parities, exchange rates, and free convertibility of currencies. Changing the parity or establishing currency restrictions required the consent of the IMF management in each individual case.

So, under US pressure, within the framework of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar standard was established - a world monetary system based on the dominance of the dollar. The dollar, the only currency convertible into gold, has become the basis of currency parities, the predominant means of international payments, the currency of intervention and reserve assets. This position of the dollar led to the economic superiority of the United States and weakened its competitors. The basis for the dominance of the dollar was the acute shortage of dollars caused by the balance of payments deficit, especially in settlements with the United States, and the lack of gold and foreign exchange reserves.

The economic, energy, and raw materials crises of the 60s destabilized the Bretton Woods system, and changes in the balance of forces in the global context undermined its structural principles. Since the late 60s, the economic, financial, monetary, and technological superiority of the United States over its competitors has gradually weakened. Western Europe and Japan, having strengthened their monetary and economic potential, began to squeeze their American partner. Because the US used the dollar rather than gold to finance its balance of payments deficit, this led to a huge increase in short-term foreign debt in the form of dollar holdings by foreign banks.

The crisis of the Bretton Woods system reached its climax in the spring and summer of 1971, when the main reserve currency was at its epicenter. The dollar crisis coincided with a long depression in the United States following the economic crisis of 1969-1970. The crisis of the American monetary system was expressed in the mass sale of it for gold and stable currencies, as well as in the fall of the dollar. The most stable was the currency zone of the French franc, which exists to this day, uniting a number of countries in Central Africa.

The search for a way out of the crisis ended with the G-10 Washington compromise agreement on December 18, 1971. Agreement was reached on the following points:

1. Devaluation of the dollar by 7.89% and an increase in the official price of the dollar by 8.57% to 38 dollars. per ounce.

2. Revaluation of a number of currencies.

3. Expanding the limits of exchange rate fluctuations from +/- 1% to +/- 2.25% of their parities and establishing central rates instead of currency parities.

4. Elimination of the 10% US customs duty.

The Washington Agreement temporarily smoothed over the differences, but did not eliminate them. In February-March 1973, a currency crisis hit the dollar again, and the price per ounce fell to 42.22%.

We can conclude that the collapse of the second world monetary system was caused by a lack of reserve funds (dollars, pounds sterling, gold), which led to a slowdown in world trade, while at the same time the excess led to the destabilization of the system of fixed exchange rates.

The crisis of the Bretton Woods monetary system gave rise to an abundance of currency reform projects. The agreement of the IMF member countries in Kingston (January 1976) was called the Jamaica Agreement. This agreement, known figuratively as the “Jamaican rum cocktail,” defined the contours of a new international monetary system.

The basis of this system is floating exchange rates and a multi-currency standard. The transition to flexible exchange rates implied the achievement of three main goals:

equalization of inflation rates in different countries;

balancing balances of payments;

expansion of opportunities for independent domestic monetary policy by individual central banks.

The novelty and peculiarity of the Jamaican currency system was the following: the SDR standard, or special drawing rights, was introduced, that is, “this is an international reserve asset, the issue of which is carried out by the IMF and distributed among member countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. SDRs do not have a material form of existence and appear only in the form accounting entry in the accounts of central banks, as well as in a special account of the IMF.” The SDR was introduced instead of the gold exchange standard. The official currency price of gold was abolished, and it was also stated that it was inadmissible to establish state or interstate control over world gold markets for the purpose of artificially freezing its price.

At the same time, decisions were made regarding the use of gold, which was at the disposal of the IMF. The IMF returned one sixth of the gold reserves (which amounted to 25 million troy ounces, or 777.6 tons) to the old members in exchange for their national currencies at the official price that existed before the Jamaica Agreement (35 SDR units per ounce) in proportion to their quotas in the Fund's capital.

Thus, central banks were able to freely buy gold on the private market at prices prevailing there and make transactions in gold among themselves based on its market value. The previously existing obligation of IMF member countries to make a contribution to the Fund's capital in gold was also abolished. The IMF's right to demand gold from participating countries in payment of their contributions to the Fund's capital or when carrying out any transactions with these countries was eliminated.

One of the main principles of the Jamaican monetary system was the legally completed demonetization of gold. The official price of gold was abolished, gold parities were abolished, and the exchange of dollars for gold was stopped.

The Jamaica Agreement finally abolished gold parities of national currencies, as well as SDR units. Therefore, it was viewed in the West as the official demonetization of gold, depriving it of all monetary functions in the sphere of international circulation. The beginning was laid for the actual displacement of the yellow metal from the system of international monetary relations.

The internationalization of the system of international liquid assets and the formation of a collective currency unit are intended to have a stabilizing effect on the world economy, mitigate the consequences of imbalances in the balance of payments, and serve as a kind of barrier to the transfer of disturbances caused by such violations to the domestic economy of the country.

In accordance with this provision of the IMF charter, certain changes were made related to the SDR mechanism:

1. The link between the value of the SDR and gold ceases to exist.

2. Participating countries are given the opportunity to enter into transactions with each other by mutual consent using SDRs without the Fund’s prior adoption of any general or special decision on this issue.

3. The IMF may permit member countries to carry out SDR transactions among themselves. In May 1979, the IMF Directorate adopted a resolution granting member countries the right to carry out various operations, such as repaying any contractual obligation without transferring the currency in which the transaction was made, providing loans in SDRs, using them as collateral when receiving loans, etc. p.

4. SDRs replace gold and national currencies in payments by member countries to the Fund and the Fund to member countries, and their possible use in transactions carried out within the general department of the IMF should be expanded.

But the results of the functioning of SDRs indicate that they turned out to be far from world money. Moreover, problems arose in the issue and distribution, collateral, method of determining the rate and scope of use of SDRs. Contrary to its intention, SDRs did not become the standard of value, the main international reserve and means of payment.

The introduction of floating instead of fixed exchange rates in most countries in March 1973 did not ensure their stability, despite the huge costs of foreign exchange intervention. This regime turned out to be unable to ensure the equalization of balances of payments, to put an end to sudden movements of “hot money” and currency speculation.

Jamaican currency reform did not achieve currency stabilization. Credit opportunities The IMF, despite increasing loans, remained modest compared to the huge international financial flows and balance of payments deficits.

Against the background of numerous problems associated with fluctuations in exchange rates, the experience of functioning of a zone of stable exchange rates in Europe, which allows the countries included in this currency group to develop sustainably, despite the problems arising in the global monetary system, is of particular interest in the world.

2.4 European Regional Monetary System

Due to the instability of the Jamaican monetary system, Western European countries - EU members - could not afford to pursue an autonomous monetary policy without the risk of jeopardizing trade and, in general, the entire system of economic cooperation within the community. In the early 70s they introduced a regime called the “currency snake”. In practice, this meant establishing strict limits on the mutual fluctuations of the currencies of the participating countries in relation to each other and their “joint floating” in relation to the dollar. They soon created their own international, or rather regional, monetary system in order to stimulate the process of economic integration.

The immediate impetus for plans to create the EMS (European Monetary System) was given by the Jamaican agreements on the reform of the EMS (1976-1978), the basic principles of which did not meet the interests of Western European countries. Namely: the EEC (European Economic Community) countries were not satisfied with the functioning of the SDR system and its close connection with the American dollar, in addition, they were dissatisfied with the introduction of floating rates, which negatively affected their foreign trade and the functioning of the already established EEC integration processes.

At the end of the 70s, the search for ways to create an effective economic and monetary union intensified. As a result of protracted and difficult negotiations, on March 13, 1979, the European Monetary System was created as part of 8 “common market” countries (Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland, Denmark).

The goals of the new currency system were:

1. Ensure the achievement of economic integration.

2. Create a zone of European stability with its own currency as opposed to the Jamaican currency system, based on the dollar standard.

3. Protect the “common market” from dollar expansion.

The European Monetary System is a set of economic relations associated with the functioning of currency within the framework of economic integration; a state-legal form of organizing currency relations among the countries of the “common market” with the aim of stabilizing exchange rates and stimulating integration processes.

EMU is a subsystem of the World Monetary System (Jamaican). The features of the Western European integration complex determine the structural principles of the European Monetary System, which differ from the Jamaican Monetary System:

1. EMU was based on the ECU - the European currency unit. The notional value of the ECU was determined using the currency “basket” method, which included the currencies of 12 countries of the European Union. The share of currencies in the ECU basket depended on the share of countries in the total GDP of EU member states, their mutual trade turnover and participation in short-term support loans. Therefore, the most significant component of the ECU - approximately 1/3 - was the German brand. In September 1993, in accordance with the Maastricht Treaty, the “absolute” weight of currencies in the ECU was frozen, but the “relative” weight fluctuated depending on the market exchange rate. Thus, in October 1993, the share of the German mark was 32.6%, the French franc - 19.9%, the pound sterling - 11.5%, the Italian lira - 8.1% and the Danish krone - 2.7%.

The discrepancy between the market and central rates of each currency in the ECU is determined daily. The market exchange rate of a currency can reach the limit of deviations in relation to the ECU, without going beyond the limits of its permissible fluctuations in relation to the national currencies of the EMU member countries. This mechanism is designed to warn countries in advance about an impending violation of bilateral exchange rate relations.

The decision to create the EMU stipulated that the ECU would become:

The basis for calculations within the mechanism that determines exchange rates.

A means of carrying out foreign exchange interventions, concluding transactions and providing loans.

A means of settlement between the central banks of member countries, as well as between the currency authorities of the EEC.

A real reserve asset.

2. Unlike the Jamaican Monetary System, which legally enshrined the demonetization of gold, the EMU used it as a real reserve asset. Firstly, the ECU issue was partially backed by gold. Secondly, for this purpose, a joint gold fund was created by combining 20% of the official gold reserves of the EMU countries.

3. The exchange rate regime is based on the joint floating of currencies in the form of a “European currency snake” - a curve describing joint fluctuations in the exchange rates of the countries of the European Community relative to the rates of other currencies that are not included in this currency grouping - within the established limits of mutual fluctuations (+/- 2.25% of the central rate, for some countries, in particular Italy, +/- 6% until the end of 1989, then Spain, taking into account the instability of their monetary and economic situation Since August 1993, as a result of the worsening currency problems of the European Union, the framework. fluctuations are expanded to 15%.

The creation of the EMU is a natural phenomenon. This currency system arose on the basis of Western European integration with the goal of creating its own currency center. However, being a subsystem of the world monetary system, the EMU experiences the negative consequences of the instability of the latter and the influence of the US dollar.

Despite this, the EMU successfully occupies an important place in the system of international monetary and financial relations. The most real achievements of the EMU are:

The successful development of the ECU, which has acquired a number of features of a world currency, although has not yet become one in the full sense;

Relative stabilization of currencies, although their exchange rates are periodically reviewed;

Consolidation of 20% of official gold and dollar reserves;

Development of a credit and financial mechanism to support member countries;

A turning point in the development of Western European integration was the program for creating a political, economic and monetary union, developed by the J. Delors committee in April 1989.

The Delora plan provided for the creation of a common market, promotion of competition in the EU, coordination of economic, budgetary, and tax policies in order to curb inflation, stabilize prices and economic growth, limit the state budget deficit and improve financing methods.

Based on the Delors plan, the Maastricht Treaty on the European Union was developed by December 1991, providing for the phased formation of a monetary and economic union.

Progress towards union was planned in three successive stages. The first stage ran from July 1, 1990 to December 31, 1993. During it, an end was put to the financing of state budget deficits of member countries by increasing the money supply and obstacles to the movement of capital between the countries of the European Union and third countries were removed.

The second stage - from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 1998 - the establishment of the EMI (European Monetary Institute), the development of the legal framework and procedures for the future ESCB ( European system central banks) led by the ECB (European central bank), preparation for the introduction of a single euro currency, close coordination of the economic policies of member countries.

The third stage - from January 1, 1999 to June 30, 2002 - the beginning of the functioning of the ECB, the implementation by the members of the union of a common agreed monetary policy, the launch of the single European currency - the euro - first into non-cash and then into cash circulation.

The use of a single currency in many countries has both advantages and disadvantages for member countries. One of the most important advantages of the euro is the reduction of risks associated with exchange rates, making it easier to invest between countries. In addition, with the introduction of a single currency, fees charged for transferring funds from one currency to another, which were previously charged to both individuals and commercial organizations, are eliminated. Another notable benefit of adopting the euro is the creation of more stable financial markets. Financial markets on the European continent are expected to become much more liquid and flexible than they have been in the past. Companies also have more freedom to borrow money from banks abroad without exposing themselves to exchange rate risks. This forces national banks to lower interest rates to be competitive. The result of all these measures was the separation of the EMU into an independent, successfully functioning system, which continues its effective existence and development at the present time.

3. Problems and prospects for the functioning of the IMF in modern conditions

At the 2013 Gaidar Forum, famous financiers discussed the future of global currencies - the dollar and the euro. Experts agreed that there is no alternative to the current reserve currencies today, as well as the desire of the world community to build a new world monetary system. If the Russian ruble can enter the pool of reserve currencies, it will only be in regional status, and not soon.

Vice-President of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia (ARBR), Alexander Khandruev, believes that the future of global currencies critically depends on how the problem of global imbalances is solved: “Currently there are no mechanisms that would allow us to solve this problem. On the contrary, government intervention in the economy prevents market corrections and, in essence, causes the persistence of these global imbalances. In my opinion, any attempts to impose on the world some new architecture of the global monetary system are doomed to failure. Claims to the role of a reserve currency, for example, from Russian ruble, the Chinese yuan or the Brazilian real will remain futile until the market itself, the market participants themselves, claim these currencies as reserve currencies. As world experience shows, all global currencies are, first of all, the choice of market participants themselves, which is secured by the corresponding agreement.”

The market chooses a global currency.

Currency competition, Alexander Khandruev believes, is very useful. “In my opinion, the future of global currencies, whether we want it or not, is, of course, the preservation of a tripolar world - dollar-euro-yen. I do not rule out that the multipolarization of the world in 10-15 years may lead to a number of other currencies taking their place in the multipolar currency world. But, in any case, this will be a certain family of reserve currencies, which are preferred by market participants in their calculations,” he believes.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank Oleg Vyugin notes that the presence of a global currency is an extremely convenient thing, so the world will strive to either maintain the presence of some kind of global currency, or create a new or several new currencies: “This is convenient because real business, companies, which today form the basis of the world economy operate globally. And switching to 200 different currencies is a big transaction cost for global players. I am confident that based on these interests, the majority of the world will hold on to the existing global currency - the dollar - until something completely terrible happens, for example, the American authorities prove their incompetence in managing the economy and financial system, which seems unlikely."

According to Oleg Vyugin, the viability of regional currencies depends on the fate of the global currency. If the global currency as the principle and basis of the world monetary system survives, then regional currencies will not be of much interest, since global companies will still need to go beyond these regional currencies when conducting transactions, and global currencies always have the best set of financial instruments.

Will there be “devi”? At the forum, proposals were made to construct a currency based on the principle of combining the dollar, euro and yen, creating a new reserve currency - “devi” (according to the first letters of these currencies). “This looks like a dream,” says the head of MDM Bank. - But I would think about it. Trying to fix exchange rates effectively means creating a single currency for the United States, the European Union and Japan. But in this case, complete harmonization of fiscal policies must be achieved. This could not be achieved even within the European Union. Therefore, “go ahead” is quite a bold dream.”

The Chinese leadership today does not seek to make the yuan a convertible currency, much less an international means of payment. But over time, this position may change.

In reality, according to Oleg Vyugin, events will develop as follows: “The world will strive to preserve the dollar as a global reserve currency to the last. And the euro as a second reserve currency. If, nevertheless, confidence in the dollar and euro gradually fades away, if the authorities of many countries begin to think about how to act in this changed situation, then swaps between central banks will become a mechanism that will protect against serious critical events. Such a mechanism, by the way, is already in use - to the extent that it is needed. The swap mechanism actually makes it possible to reduce transaction costs for companies that operate in the global field and maintain the relative stability of currencies, and most importantly, this is the same competitive mechanism that over time can identify a new global reserve currency. An attempt to construct a "devi" as above national currency, probably premature. It’s just that any action must have a very strong motivation. There is no such motivation yet.”

“The problems that have arisen today,” continued the head of MDM Bank, “appeared not because of the imperfection of the world monetary system, but for purely economic reasons. Developed countries have taken on very large social obligations through an increase in government spending and, most importantly, through an increase in government obligations. They placed them on the shoulders of future generations, but it is not yet clear why these future generations will be many times more productive than existing ones. What mechanism will provide significantly higher labor productivity that will pay for these obligations? The answer to this question has not been found, and it has nothing to do with monetary systems. Whoever finds the answer to this question first will ultimately have a global currency. However, the United States still has the greatest chance of success in this matter.”

The Yuan doesn't want to be global. Already today, quite intensive and serious changes are taking place in the mechanism of operation of the world monetary system, says Sergei Dubinin, Chairman of the VTB Supervisory Board. However, the world monetary system, in his opinion, will be tied to the two largest assets for quite a long time - the dollar and the euro. Who could enter there on equal terms? This CNY. With the balance of payments that China has, the yuan can really become a convertible currency and a solid international means of payment. The Chinese leadership does not want this, and that is their right. They have an undervalued exchange rate, which allows them to boost exports. China also maintains a capital flow regulation system, despite its membership in the WTO and many other international organizations. “The Chinese leadership is currently not seeking to make the yuan a convertible currency, much less an international means of payment. I think that this will happen over time, and the yuan still has to go this way,” says Sergei Dubinin.

Prospects for the ruble.

The ruble also aspires to become a reserve currency. “I believe that the Bank of Russia’s announcement of the transition to a floating exchange rate (starting in 2015) and the recently adopted budget rule are two fundamental pillars on which the ruble can move towards reserve currency status,” said Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexey Moiseev. - What, in essence, is a reserve currency? It is the currency in which savings are held and in which issuers want to list their securities. For this to happen, two conditions must be met. The first is predictability of monetary policy, freedom of exchange rate setting (we achieve this thanks to the Bank of Russia). The second is the absence of currency restrictions. We don't have them. We did not introduce them even with the colossal capital outflow in 2009, and I think it is safe to say that none of the potential or existing investors expect that Russia will ever introduce currency controls again. I believe that these two factors - the floating exchange rate and foreign exchange restrictions - do not yet allow the yuan to become a serious reserve currency. These are two necessary conditions, without which no currency has a chance of becoming a reserve currency. The ruble has such chances.”

In order for issuers to place their assets in foreign currency, a developed market is needed securities. This is another condition for a currency to become a reserve currency. “It is somewhat ironic that reserve currency issuers can only be those countries that have a developed market for government debt securities. The large US government debt, denominated in dollars, is one of the reasons why the dollar is indispensable as a reserve currency. Now it is simply impossible to invest the reserves of even central banks (not to mention the reserves of the private sector) from the dollar, from US treasury bonds into other government securities - there is such a quantity of liquid government securities nowhere else,” noted Alexey Moiseev. “This suggests that a local securities market must necessarily develop - one in the currency of which investors will want to issue their securities.”

So far, Russia has only one precedent - the issue of securities of the Republic of Belarus in rubles. “If it is possible to build an adequate market structure, then issuers from the former USSR countries and some other nearby countries will actively issue their securities on the Russian site,” believes the Deputy Minister of Finance. - In order for the ruble to become a reserve currency at the regional level, we have two macroeconomic conditions; it remains to build efficient financial markets. When they are built in Russia, we will have a real chance to “build” a fairly serious regional reserve currency.”

Conclusion

In this course work, the international monetary and financial system was studied. The essence was revealed and the functions of its main elements were shown. Based on the above analysis, we can come to the conclusion that the world monetary system has a long history and has gone through several stages of development. Each period of the existence of the currency system had its own characteristics that met the requirements of a particular era, but a general development trend can be noted: the gradual demonetization of gold and the strengthening of the American dollar as the main reserve currency, which contributed to the consolidation of the United States in the world economic arena. The modern international financial system has gone through three stages, and a new stage has begun: the transition of the world to a three-currency system, where there are three interchangeable currencies - the dollar, the euro and the national currency. The greatest attention is focused on the euro, and it is the introduction of the euro that is a promising step in the development of the international financial system.

A lot of time has passed since the idea of integrating the monetary systems of the member countries was born in the EU, and a huge amount of work has been done. We have witnessed a gradual, thoughtful and measured movement of Europe towards the intended goal. The peculiarity of this movement was its complete openness and explanation of each step. In the European press and media, one could always find a lot of operational and analytical information of various levels regarding the integration process. For the successful functioning of EMU, a number of European institutions were created with equity participation all EU members in them.

Officials do not hide their hope that the created currency will displace the American dollar and take on part of its role. Europe's economic potential is much greater than that of the United States and Japan combined. But until now, the pace of development of European industry was much lower than in these countries. It is expected that the introduction of a single currency will eliminate this problem. However, one should hardly expect an immediate effect from the integration process. The world economy is too large a mechanism, very sensitive to mistakes, but takes too long to confirm the correctness of certain actions. In general, if the euro did not collapse sharply in January 1999, this is unlikely to happen in the future. There are objective reasons for this.

Due to the large-scale costs that business entities around the world will need to make at the turn of the millennium (and European ones in particular), it is likely that many small companies will leave the market or merge into larger ones. Currently, the European community is a goldmine for accounting and transaction software vendors. The massive renewal of the computer fleet also gives impetus to the development of relevant industries.

But one cannot ignore the dollar; it still remains a strong currency, and a stable position in the International Monetary Service is guaranteed for many years, since many countries are in no hurry to part with the dollar as a reserve currency.

international currency gold coin

List of sources and literature used

1. Avdeeva E.G., Dollar and the global economic crisis of the USA, Canada - economics, politics, culture - Moscow, 09.29.2010

2. Anikin A.V. Gold, 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: International relations, 1988

3. Belotelova I.P. Money, credit, banks: textbook. manual - M.: Dashkov and K, 2008. - 483 p.

4. Vozhzhov A.P., Belousov A.S. Incentives for the creation of new reserve currencies - Finance and Credit, Moscow, 08/28/2011.

5. Gryaznova A.G. Financial and credit encyclopedic dictionary - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2004.

6. Krasavina L.N. International monetary, credit and financial relations - Moscow, 2008

7. Krasavina L.N. Conceptual approaches to reforming the world monetary system - Money and Credit, No. 5, 2010.

8. Krasavina L.N. Scientific school of international currency, credit and financial relations - Money and credit. 2009. N 1.

9. Kuzmin D. National competitiveness, global equilibrium and the world monetary system - World economy and international relations, 05/31/2011.

10. Menshikova A.M. The G20 and the economy of the post-crisis world - Business and Banking, Moscow, 09/13/2011

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The process of developing IFS into a global form of financial interaction

The global financial system (GFS) is a multifaceted and complex object of study, which explains the richness and diversity of theoretical and practical work in this area of research. It is not surprising that there are different approaches to its definition. Firstly, a number of scientists in their interpretations of the IFS focus on international monetary, credit and financial relations as the basis of the system, and also formulate a general idea of the object of scientific analysis through revealing the essence of its basic elements - various international financial markets1. Secondly, some researchers identify IFS with a certain form of organization of international financial relations within the framework of special agreed principles and focus on institutions that are key parts of the system2. Finally, in some works the authors refer mainly to an integral element of the IFS structure, namely the world monetary system, i.e. The definition of the object of study is based on the interaction and mutual influence of its components3. At the same time, the listed approaches are united by the idea that MFS is a special sphere and at the same time part of the world economy, playing a key system-forming and at the same time serving role in the processes of the market economy. Note that the first two definitions of MFS formulated in the theory, in our opinion, are incomplete and reflect only some aspects of the functioning of the system. The last definition is also not accepted as a basis in our study, since identifying the MFS with one of the links in its structure contradicts the logic of the existence and development of the system. In the second part of this chapter we will outline the most acceptable and expanded interpretation of the object of study.

Analysis of the conceptual framework of the IFS is extremely important for understanding the general logic and direction of development of the system, carrying out a clear, reasonable periodization of its life cycle, identifying problems of systemic financial evolution and, finally, for determining the nature and methodology of future reforms. To implement the stated task, it seems advisable to combine the key theories devoted to MFS into three large blocks. The first contains the ideological framework of international financial relations, the main principles of which are set out in the works of classics of various areas of economic science. The second group covers basic macroeconomic and financial concepts. The third block includes the basic theories of international capital movements. Thus, the proposed scheme for reviewing an array of theoretical works helps to trace the development of economic doctrines about MFS in dynamics, allows us to display the breadth and richness of the “palette” of scientific views on the issues under study, while maintaining the depth of analysis.

In the first block, as representative theories of the MFS, we included such modern trends of economic thought as neoliberalism, institutionalism, dirigisme, post-Keynesianism and Western Marxism. These theoretical directions are intended not only to explain the logic of the historical development of the world economy as a whole and the IFS as its important component, but also to determine the balance of power in the system, i.e. identify the specific roles of various institutions in the process of making strategic decisions.

First of all, each of the listed movements offers its own interpretation of the capitalist stage of development of national and international socio-economic and financial relations in the context of their history. According to neoliberalism, this is an almost ideal form of interaction between economic entities, the central category of which is “freedom.” Institutionalists, dirigists and post-Keynesians are quite close in their characteristics of capitalism as a system of financial and economic relations, going through several stages of its formation from trade to administrative through business and financial (banking) and having certain and, most importantly, correctable and/or removable shortcomings. The position of Marxists is absolutely opposite to the two points of view listed above: they are convinced that the capitalist formation, which creates imbalances in the economy, is, in principle, unable to lead the system to the Pareto optimum, since under its conditions it is impossible to improve the position of the working class. Thus, from the point of view of the development of MFS, neoliberalism advocates a kind of static financial relations, Marxism turns towards revolutionary “purifying” changes, while the other three related movements advocate systemic evolution and the idea of increasing the well-being of society at all levels of financial interactions.

In determining the balance of power within the framework of the IFS and the world economy as a whole, there are also clear differences among the representative theories of the first block. Firstly, neoliberalism gives the main role in the system to the market as an internal, natural, self-regulating “order”4. The state is thus given a clearly defined place5. In the understanding of ordoliberalists, this is the establisher of a “constitution” in the form of rules of the game for subjects of financial and economic activity; in the concept of a social market economy - a kind of prime mover in relation to the market environment6; for monetarists, it is a subject with an innate right to make mistakes in the policy of regulating the financial sector, constantly in need of some guidance (guidelines such as the “monetary rule”)7. Thus, the ideas of liberating market forces, eliminating barriers to the movement of capital and increasing its mobility, multilateral liberalization, etc. - all this is a priori useful for the MFS and should increase the efficiency of its functioning.

Secondly, institutionalists in the global financial system rely on certain institutions and “institutions”. Representatives of this economic school, opposed to the “mainstream,” pessimistically assess the prospects and results of the independent development of financial markets, thereby justifying the need for and the inevitability of expanding and deepening “balancing” government intervention in the processes occurring within the global and national financial systems8. In the context of our topic, the empiric-statistical theory of W. K. Mitchell, set out in his 1913 work, is of greatest interest. Economic cycles" Logic of history cyclical development economy is built by the author on the basis of processes occurring in the sphere of circulation. The financial system at all levels, according to Mitchell, is the most effective form of organizing social relations. At the same time, the dual nature of financial institutions (securities, exchanges, banks) is revealed: they are capable of both increasing the well-being of the individual and the country, and disrupting the natural balance of their existence. Within the framework of the presented interpretation, MFS acts both as a destructive element and as the basis of the world economy9.

Thirdly, dirigisme is not only a doctrine and “offshoot” of traditional institutionalism according to one version, and neo-Keynesianism according to another, but also a specific type of public policy. In other words, this direction of theoretical thought is quite difficult to separate from practice, and it presupposes active, close private and public, as well as supranational financial and economic interaction. The main instrument of dirigisme is selective policy and indicative planning, and its main idea is the need for public control over large investments and coordination of investment volumes and prices to achieve balanced economic growth10.

Fourth, post-Keynesians are divided in their views on the distribution of roles in the financial system. Their “right” representatives insist on strictly limited participation and “dosed” intervention of the state in the sphere of circulation, the left “wing” deepens this idea to elevate the planning (in the style of dirigisme) of the main financial macroeconomic indicators to the rank of obligatory planning. However, it is important to note the following: in both cases, it is assumed that market freedom for the development of MFS should be implemented as much as possible, regulation of the system should be carried out to the extent that it is necessary at each point in time, and control over its functioning is a continuous function of government and supranational institutions11.

Finally, Marxists, following their traditions, determine the balance of power in the financial and economic system through classes. R. Hilferding, in a work devoted to the analysis of the newest phase of the development of capitalism, discusses the emergence of powerful capitalist groups that united all layers of the propertied class to serve financial capital, which controls almost all spheres of social activity, including production processes. Finance capital expands and begins to dominate the world thanks to the principles of laissez-faire, at the same time it needs a strong state that will protect it within the national economy and facilitate the conquest of foreign markets. Entering a more mature phase of its development, financial capital reveals itself in the highest stage of concentration of economic and political power in the hands of tycoons.

Financial bubbles and global imbalances

Let's start our analysis by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of GFS. The benefits of financial globalization highlighted in theoretical works150 can be conditionally classified into global and national, and their criterion can be the achievement of common key goals of economic development, for example, an increase in GDP, sustainable economic growth. At the top of Fig. Figure 3 presents both the traditional global benefits of financial globalization, leading directly to the implementation of the assigned tasks, and additional positive qualities that are potentially open to any state.

The first group of advantages of the GFS includes, first of all, a qualitative breakthrough in the development of global financial markets (the “reverse” side of this process is discussed below). Opportunities to improve international distribution and use are expanding financial resources, since financial liberalization and cross-border capital flows are expected to facilitate the efficient transformation of savings into investment. In addition, direct channels for distributing benefits “feed” indirect ones. All other things being equal, the rule of mutual benefit (or co-directional movement) should apply: capital-deficient countries will receive access to financial resources, and capital-rich countries will receive high factor income. Downside Profit maximization is expected to result in an overall reduction in the cost of capital, realized to a greater extent through the international diversification of financial risks.

Fr. Mishkin, who actively calls for the speedy use of the entire block of benefits from the GFS processes, and J. Stiglitz, who is skeptical about such an idea without a comprehensive balanced analysis, agree that the traditional advantages of financial globalization include an increase in the level of competition in the system: business entities developed countries compete for market niches not only among themselves, but also with players from developing countries151. In a review of theoretical works on this issue, M.Yu. Golovnin notes that increased competition has become one of the key factors that influenced the reduction in global and global inflation rates152 (see Appendix, Fig. 9).

Indeed, during the 1980s - mid. 1990s The average annual global inflation rate fluctuated between 15-35%, but in 2000-2013. the value of this macroeconomic indicator did not exceed 6%.

In our opinion, the list of traditional benefits of GFS, presented in Fig. 3, should be supplemented with several positive effects of international capital movement, which we include: the spillover effect, associated with the development of fundamental intermarket financial connections based on the interaction of financial players, both at the level of components of the State Fiscal System and at the intercountry (geographical) ) financial space. A characteristic feature of this financial effect is that it comes from the fundamental features of the movement of financial capital, which theoretically, based on rational economic premises, should be invested in the most promising and profitable projects. For example, as noted earlier, the evolution of the financial innovation market (especially its American and European segments) has attracted and concentrated enormous financial resources in this area of the State Fiscal Service. integration or transformation spillover effect (from English also spillover effect), reflecting the qualitative and quantitative interaction of the real and financial sectors of the world and global economy. As emphasized earlier, in fact, the IFS at each stage of its development is the most dynamic and progressive subsystem of the general economic system, therefore, changes in international financial relations one way or another, instantly or over time, entail transformation processes in international production and trade, which, in turn, launches a new round of financial evolution. As a specific example, we can cite integration processes in European countries: monetary and financial integration strengthens and strengthens the interaction of national economic systems and contributes to their successful adaptation within the framework of the State Fiscal Service and the global economy as a whole. the financial monsoon effect, reflecting the influence of positive financial changes developed countries on national financial systems, balances of payments and other economic indicators of developing countries and countries with economies in transition. “Monsoons” with positive economic consequences, for example, include an increase in the degree of participation of developing countries and countries with economies in transition in world and global financial and economic processes. As an example, we present several facts related to the evolution of MVR. It was the world stock market during the first and second “waves” of globalization that became an important means of financial communication that brought countries around the world closer together (see paragraphs 1.2 and 1.3).

The second group of advantages of financial globalization includes signaling or expression by a country of readiness to enter global financial markets, the development of national financial markets, improvement of financial and legal institutions and the creation of a favorable investment regime, which also makes it possible to attract new technologies. In addition, competition between domestic and foreign financial intermediaries stimulates the design of innovative financial products. Financial globalization contributes to the further development of specialization and the deepening of the international division of labor, the processes of which were analyzed in detail by A. Smith and K. Marx. The interaction of the financial and real sectors of the global economy leads to the fact that the rationalization of production is already taking place on a worldwide scale, economic integration is being improved and deepened.

To the conditional benefits of financial globalization, J. Stiglitz adds the existence of an opportunity (at least limited in many ways) for various groups of states to take advantage of global financial markets as sources of financial resources and diversification of financial portfolios. Fr. Mishkin in his work expands the boundaries of the benefits of the GFS for developing countries and introduces into this group of benefits of financial globalization the development of property rights and the evolution of financial institutions, which, in his opinion, will accelerate the achievement of the goals set in the production sector of the economy153.

The presence of a number of the above advantages of financial globalization is partially confirmed in practice. Let's give a few specific examples. Financial globalization as a new stage in the development of IFS and its elements is characterized through categories such as the “death of distances”, operations “at arm’s length” and ultra-close cooperation, which not only reflects the presence of trust in society (the spiritual side), but also makes it possible to reduce transactional costs, increase the quality and speed of customer service (material component). These processes were manifested, among other things, in the work of universal financial companies that generate synergistic effects (for example, in the form of cross-financing or the provision of expanded service packages). The creation of a special accessible Internet information space, appropriate technical and technological installations for the implementation of various financial transactions and means of communication, overcoming language barriers (universalization of the English language) contribute to the further development of financial globalization.

Financial crisis at the current stage of development of MFS

The global financial and economic crisis, the most acute phase of which occurred in 2007–2009, became an important event in the history of the State Fiscal Service. Firstly, this phenomenon warns that the system, in the terms of A.A. Bogdanov, has independently found some internal “solution” to the contradictions that have accumulated in it. Secondly, after a crisis, the object of research necessarily ceases to be what it remained before, and it is important to understand what character the GFEC has - creative or destructive - and to highlight its features. Finally, a systemic crisis always has an impact on both the financial sector and the economy as a whole, so it is important to give a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of this event.

Theoretical and practical analysis The essence and various types of financial crises have already been given above. This section will present the results of a study devoted to the specific causes and timing of a multiple (i.e., affecting several financial areas, see paragraphs 1.1 and 2.2) global financial crisis, channels of its spread, identification of distinctive properties and consequences. In 2008, it reaches a general economic scale, and this phase process is associated with a reduction in global, regional and national indicators of production, trade and an increase in unemployment (see Fig. 21-22 and Appendix, Fig. 30).

The conclusions presented above, made on the basis of studying the features of the development of the global financial system, allow us to formulate the following complex block of reasons that determine the emergence of the GFEC: systemic fundamental problems of financial globalization, including the financial phenomenon of GFP and global imbalances; II. characteristic features of the US economy and financial system as the geographic starting point of the crisis; III. specific development of the “infected” countries (approximately 150 states).

Since the first group of reasons for GFEC was discussed in detail by us in the previous parts of this chapter, we will dwell in more detail on the remaining blocks. The second circle of reasons is directly related to system-wide threats, but if the first block analyzes the very structure of the geographical structure of the GFS according to the “core-periphery” type, then in this case the following specific characteristics of the US economy, which finds itself in the position of a global financial leader, are revealed: 1) historical- geographical, identified on the basis of the concept of “dependence on a common path”. Peculiarities territorial position in many ways allowed the United States not only to benefit financially and economically from the events of two world wars, but also to take documented leadership positions in the IFS. In addition, earlier in the 19th century. financial and industrial achievements of the United States were associated with the strengthening and development capitalist relations, free from outdated feudal forms and attitudes. Thus, throughout the history of the development of the United States up to the GFEC, the prerequisites were formed for the successful transplantation of borrowed progressive financial institutions, and most importantly for the design and “growing” of their new types269. 2) innovative and technological. Continuing the previous line of reasoning, here are several examples of newly created and/or improved financial institutions and operational algorithms in the United States: secondary market mortgage agencies, outwardly aimed at realizing the “American Dream” of justice and prosperity; bringing to perfection the technology for concluding financial transactions based on the “arm's length” principle270, i.e. when financial players carry out mutual or unilateral transactions without having special knowledge about each other. This business approach largely depends on the general availability of information resources, so the predominance of the practice of using it is a rather risky choice compared to the strategy of direct long-term interaction between counterparties; encouraging the “mutation” of derivative financial instruments and participating in the complication of structured financial assets through the implementation of the “derivatives from derivatives” scheme271 (CDO squared and cubed). This served as another factor in the “revolt of financial innovation” (drawing a parallel between modern reality and the “revolt of machines against their creators” described in “Capital” by K. Marx). 3) neoliberal in the philosophical form of “freedom from.” The focus on the efficiency of financial markets made it possible to implement the following series of programs in practice: deregulation of the national financial system, expressed in the form of minimizing the role of the state in the economy. A peculiarity of American reality is that the state through its budget redistributes about 31% of GDP, and the remaining 69% is operated by the market through financial institutions272.

As proof of this thesis, one can cite the evolutionary “chain” of savings institutions and mortgage institutions from construction savings banks to secondary mortgage lending market agencies. One of the legislative changes is the transition from the Glass-Steagall Act to the Gremm-Litch-Bliley Act (see Chapter 1). Granting investment banks special permission from the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) to manage risk based on capital requirements from the “Big 5 Investment Bank Voluntary Regulatory Program.” Until 2004, financial transactions were controlled through strict rules allowing for the relationship between liabilities and value net assets like 15:1. Under the new established algorithm, investment banks could agree to SEC consolidated supervision on more flexible terms, which in some cases allowed the above ratio to be increased to 40:1273. the role of financial markets in the country turned out to be extremely exaggerated. According to Yu.Ya. Olsevich, this, in turn, contributes to the distortion of the system of motivation and stimulation of economic entities274. creating the world's largest national financial system and taking a leadership position in global financial markets. Previous sections of the dissertation have already provided data on the status of the United States and its financial “hawks” in various components and structural connections of the State Fiscal Service. In addition, we note that the mere presence in the pre-crisis 2000s. working in a close “nexus” of global financial intermediaries - five investment giants Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merril Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, two financial conglomerates Citigroup and JP Morgan, three key insurance players AIG, MBIA, AMBAC, as well as rating agencies Moody s, S&P, Fitch - provided the United States with a central position in the global financial hybrid network.

In conclusion of the analysis of the second block of reasons for the SFES, we note that the functioning of the US financial sector, central to the SFS, is essentially an extreme in the implementation of the Anglo-Saxon model of economic development.

Following the tradition of F. Quesnay and T. Hobbes, it is advisable to draw an analogy of the financial system with the circulatory system of a living organism, through which the blood carries both beneficial nutrients and infection. Let us analyze the channels of spread of the global crisis in the State Fiscal Service to developed and developing countries and countries with economies in transition, both on the basis of general trends and specific representative examples.

Development of transformation scenarios and long-term development strategy for MFS

Thus, in our proposed system, both the elements and the structure are improved. In addition, key functions are distributed: the reformer transforms, regulators supervise and correct, the market guides financial entities.

The auxiliary ones include changes aimed at improving interim plans for the transformation of specific segments, eliminating possible mistakes of the global reformer and “improving” the system. The initiatives being introduced by the G-20, which we outlined above in the form of the main points from the program of global financial transformations, are also included in this type of changes and are recommended for continuation (except for those that have already been replaced by the author within the framework of the presented arguments). This type of reform occupies the longest segments of the transformation vector. All economic entities must have the opportunity to adapt to the given course and conditions, and the reformer will retain the right and time to make the necessary, “supporting” changes.

The accompanying transformations reflect the multi-sphere nature of the ongoing activities and are associated with a set of measures to solve a number of global socio-economic problems at the stage of vibration stabilization. Reforms that go beyond international financial relations - social, anti-corruption, environmental, etc. – will fit very organically into this plan due to the transformational effect of flow. Only with progressive reform of the State Fiscal Service will a further increase in the range of transformations in the global economy will arise and spread harmoniously and in a timely manner. Let us give a specific example: tightening control and regulation in the banking sector and areas of operating with derivative financial instruments requires the appropriate intervention of officials at the global, regional and national levels; the introduction of effective anti-corruption measures in this situation will make it possible to carry out the necessary changes more effectively.

Thus, in essence, global reforms of a triple structure are proposed: 1) fundamental ingression processes requiring global cooperation; 2) auxiliary and accompanying transformations based on international initiatives (a number of events of the G-20 and world monetary and financial organizations); 3) changes implemented at the regional and national levels (solving internal problems and integrating international standards into legislative norms and own practice). During their implementation, it is expected to eliminate the alienation between progress in the financial sector, scientific and technical progress (in the manufacturing sector) and the spiritual development of the individual (gaining the deep philosophical meaning of work and existence). The reformer should avoid the costs of missed opportunities that exacerbate the development of a pessimistic forecast.

When the system enters the trajectory of balanced sustainable evolutionary development, growth of social welfare and further convergence of economic systems, the policy of stability comes into force, and at the same time, the activity of the global reformer does not stop. The preparation of plans and resources begins as part of the strategy for the progress of O-IFS and the global economy as a whole.

Is there a high probability of implementing the presented algorithm of global reforms from the point of view of the development of the global economy? In our opinion, the answer to this question should be sought in modern interpretations of the theory of long cycles by N.D. Kondratiev. Researcher K. Perez identifies 5 evolutionary “waves”, each of which is characterized by its own historical sequence of events inherent in the nature of capitalism (for example, according to this theory, the technological revolution is replaced by a financial “bubble”, the “collapse” of which turns into a crisis, and then comes the period “ golden time"370). The world is now at the 3rd stage of the 5th cycle, and it is necessary to draw an important conclusion: historically, the opportunity has been given for the onset of the next “golden time” of the development of the world economy, subject to the effective reform of the IFS and the rational use of all types of resources for this purpose. It is necessary to use this chance correctly and in a timely manner, competently carrying out the necessary transformation “injections”.

The plan we have developed is calculated and recommended for implementation within 20 years: the implementation of the policy of stabilization and vibration stabilization should take on average about 10–15 years, the policy of stability – approximately 5 years. A long-term strategy for the progress of O-IFS and the global economy as a whole, in our opinion, needs to be drawn up for a 20-25-year perspective, including 5-7-year intermediate and adjustable plans for systemic development. The strategy of gradualism for carrying out global financial transformation in our case is expressed, first of all, in the consistency, adjustability and adaptive characteristics of the proposed reforms.

Let us summarize the results of creating a long-term strategy for the development of MFS and evaluate the quality of our proposed general vector of global transformations in accordance with the methodology of SWOT analysis, which is an important mechanism for the preparation and implementation of strategic plans in the field of marketing and management. In relation to our topic, it will be associated with a step-by-step study of the Strengths and Weaknesses of the global reform strategy, their Opportunities and Threats for IFS, as well as an assessment of options for turning weaknesses into strengths, and challenges into new perspectives. The results of the SWOT analysis are placed in a special matrix (see Fig. 28), with its help it is technically convenient to draw appropriate conclusions.

At the 1st step, we evaluate the benefits of the global reforms proposed above. Our algorithm combines dynamism and planning. A special head institution in the organizational hierarchy is being built into the system; transformations are taking place not only in the financial architecture, but also in the State Fiscal Service as a whole. Ingression is radical.

At the 2nd step, we identify opportunities for systemic transformation. First of all, global reforms are not starting from scratch: we continue to develop useful initiatives, leave behind effective institutions and get rid of the causes of the SFEC. The global reformer and the corresponding structures at all levels can attract the necessary and sufficient quantities of resources and factors to carry out systemic transformation. Eliminating the problems of the State Fiscal System and adjusting the processes will ensure crisis-free development of the research object.

At the 3rd step, we determine the weaknesses of the proposed transformations. These include the disadvantages inherent in model designs and strategies: theoretical nature, an attempt to program processes (while circumstances play a large role in the lifeline of the system), a high degree of rationalization and the presence of a number of conditions/assumptions.

At the 4th step, threats are identified that may hinder the implementation of global reforms. Firstly, they include the counterforce with which some groups of business entities will resist innovations, possibly associated with costs or loss of profit for them (the management team of F-TNCs, corrupt structures at various levels, participants in shadow banking, etc. .). Secondly, this is various kinds of delays in the timing of approval and implementation of certain ingression processes. Finally, let us especially note the still unresolved conflict nature of globalization.

The world financial system is economic relations associated with the functioning of world money and serving various types of economic relations between countries (foreign trade, export of capital, investment of profits, provision of loans and subsidies, scientific and technical exchange, tourism, public and private transfers, etc. ).

The relevance of the research topic is determined by the fact that in modern conditions of deepening the integration of the economies of industrialized countries, the world monetary system is playing an increasingly important and independent role in world economic relations. In addition, it has a direct impact on the determining economic situation country factors: growth rates of production and international exchange, prices, wages, etc.

The purpose of the study is to study trends in global financial development in the 21st century.

The trends in the development of the global financial system include the following.

Regulation of financial markets and investment institutions, namely:

1) strengthening the financial system and reforming local financial institutions through the development and dissemination of international principles and standards for regulation and supervision of the banking system, stock market and various financial institutions.

2) identifying ways to strengthen prudential supervision in both developing and developed countries;

3) creation of mechanisms for market regulation of the derivatives market and investment activities with the active use of borrowed resources;

4) promoting the introduction of international standards of activity in offshore financial centers.

Well-established economic policy:

1) determining the conditions for liberalizing the domestic market and introducing an adequate exchange rate regime in countries with developing markets, developing ways to control the movement of international capital;

2) increasing the efficiency of government support mechanisms for the private sector and distribution of social benefits;

3) finding ways to minimize population losses as a result of crises and developing policies that would better protect the most vulnerable segments of the population;

4) expanding transparency in the private and public sectors and in the activities of international financial institutions.

Creation of new international structures:

1) create a separate supranational institution or give new powers to one of the existing international organizations to coordinate the macroeconomic policies of leading developed and developing countries, especially in the field of suppressing inflation and ensuring employment;

2) create a system of international financial regulation to develop uniform international standards and supervise the activities of institutions conducting operations on a global scale. An important step in this direction could be regular meetings of representatives of financial authorities of the G-7 countries, leading countries with emerging markets and international financial organizations within the framework of a special forum on regulatory policy issues.

The goals of improving the global financial system at the present stage are:

1) restoration of economic activity and investor confidence in countries that have experienced a financial crisis;

2) preventing further spread of the crisis to developed countries;

3) minimizing the risks of future crises, limiting their depth and scope;

4) limiting the financial costs of overcoming crises and reducing the time to overcome them;

5) limiting possible losses for investors during future crises;

6) creation of a financial system that would take full advantage of global markets and capital mobility with minimal risk of destruction and effective protection of the most vulnerable social groups of the population;

7) strengthening the IMF's supervision of the policies pursued by member countries, especially in the financial sector and in the field of capital flows;

8) increasing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy at the international level.

Thus, the development and stable functioning of the international financial system is conditioned by the growth of productive forces, the creation of a world market, the deepening of the international division of labor, the formation of a world economic system, and the internationalization of economic relations.

Literature:

1. Noskova I.Ya. International financial and credit relations: Textbook. allowance. - M.: UNITY, 2010.-346 p.

2. Fedorov B.G. Modern currency and credit markets. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008. – 345 p.

Introduction
Conclusions
Sources

Introduction

The topic of the test is "The evolution of the global monetary and financial system - the possibilities of transfer systems and the prospects for their development" in the discipline "Finance".

The purpose of the work is to reflect the stages of evolution of the global monetary and financial system regarding changes in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, depending on the availability of resource and communication conditions for carrying out transactions, obtaining financial resources and information about financial market conditions, etc.

The evolution of the global monetary and financial system - the possibilities of transfer systems and prospects for their development

The evolution of the world's monetary and financial systems has been studied quite fully in terms of the transition from a lower to a higher form, methods of functioning, and conditions of their application. Traditionally, it was believed that at each stage of evolution, due to the deterioration of the situation with international liquidity, a new monetary and financial system was created that was supposed to solve this problem. The concept of “international liquidity” is inextricably linked to factors such as the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks and the ability of countries to produce gold. Despite the fact that since the 70s of the XX century. gold no longer served as money, scientists tend to explain even the current state of the global monetary and financial system taking into account the dynamics of gold production, changes in market value and demand for it from central banks. There are objective reasons for this opinion.

First, the indisputable fact is that the gold standard system has always, whether it was gold coin, gold bullion or gold exchange, functioned ideally precisely because of the firm link between the issue of currencies and the gold reserves of central banks. But natural restrictions, complex economic and political relations between states, catastrophic events in international life (the First and Second World Wars) led to the fact that the dynamics of world trade began to exceed the dynamics of gold production, that is, the emergence of international illiquidity was due to its shortage in world markets .

Secondly, the key to the success of the Bretton Woods monetary system was that during its creation (1944), the US Federal Reserve concentrated over 70% of the world's gold reserves. This allowed the United States to turn the dollar into a world currency, issuing on such a scale as required by international trade and the interests of the national economy. It would seem that Bretton Woods provided inviolable guarantees, based, in particular, not only on the mentioned link, but also on the activities specialized organizations The UN, namely the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. International Financial Cooperation, International Development Association, International Investment Guarantee Agency. But the problem of international liquidity was gradually maturing and sooner or later was bound to make itself known loudly. The short-sighted economic policy of the United States significantly accelerated events in this area. In the late 60s - early 70s, most IMF member countries officially recognized that the current global financial system, based on the peg of gold to the dollar, had exhausted itself and could neither guarantee stability for financial markets nor contribute to the development of the global farms.

Thirdly, although one of the key postulates of the Jamaica Conference (1976) was the rejection of gold as a universal equivalent and the use of convertible currencies as reserves, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks, along with the latter, still include collective currencies, 25% of the country's share to the IMF, as well as banking metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). It should be noted that in recent years, the demand and price of gold have been constantly growing in the banking metals market (2000 - 255 dollars, 2005 - 450, 2009 - 1214, 2010 - 1350 dollars) . The first rating company recently published data on the owners of the largest gold reserves. According to this information, the USA owns 8965.6 tons of gold, Germany - 3767.1, IMF - 3546.1, France - 2930.4, Italy - 2702.6, Switzerland - 1285.6, Japan - 843.5, the Netherlands - 688.39, to the European Central Bank - 666.5 tons. The gold reserves of Ukraine are 26.8 tons, only 2.7% of the official gold and foreign exchange reserves of the NBU are formed in gold, we occupy 50th place in the ranking.

The transfer capabilities of the subjects of the global monetary and financial system as a determining factor in their evolution, as well as the influence of innovative solutions on these capabilities, have remained outside the field of view of researchers. The concept of “transfer opportunities” includes the presence of resource and communication conditions for transactions, as well as the receipt of financial resources and information from other subjects of the system. These opportunities are characterized by certain qualitative parameters, primarily speed, security, multi-channel transactions, and are linearly related to several prerequisites:

the presence of international and national guarantees for the security of transactions;

development of communications;

flexibility of mechanisms for collective accumulation of resources using a variety of financial instruments and their use in those areas that have the greatest profitability potential;

diversification of methods and sources of informing the public about the state and prospects of financial markets.

An analysis of the development of the world monetary system shows that the emergence of international illiquidity is usually accompanied by a decrease in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, with all the characteristic features this process: transactions slow down, the number of channels for attracting and transferring resources to business partners decreases, and security guarantees are weakened. Thus, since 1914, European countries began to gradually issue national currencies without reference to the gold reserves of their central banks, and transactions on the world financial market were carried out only in convertible currencies. Before 1937, almost all countries abandoned the gold standard. At first, transfer opportunities decreased due to a slowdown in transactions and a decrease in the number of channels for receiving and transferring resources to business partners, and then, when alternatives in choosing currencies finally disappeared, the main problem became the extremely low level of security of any transactions.

In this case, by innovative we mean decisions made by heads of governments and central banks at international conferences, as well as at meetings of international financial organizations, the implementation of which radically changed the “rules of the game” and provided new opportunities for subjects of the global monetary and financial system.

Significant was the reduction in transfer opportunities as a result of the emergence of currency blocs. As you know, a currency bloc is a grouping of countries that are economically, financially and otherwise dependent on a strong “hegemon” who dictates a unified foreign policy to them and uses them as a privileged sales market, a source of cheap raw materials, and a profitable area for capital investment. The very idea of currency blocs was interesting and quite promising. But during the creation of these blocks there were no prerequisites for their effective functioning: we are talking about the absence in the 30s of the XX century. global and even regional communication and information networks, as well as an adequate mechanism for establishing floating rates of non-convertible currencies relative to the currencies of economically developed countries. The system of currency blocs, not having the ability to solve the main problem - to increase the level of international liquidity, was actually applied partially, existing in full only “on paper”, and to a certain extent contributed to the deepening of the payment crisis on the eve of the Second World War.

Signs of a decrease in the transfer capabilities of subjects of the global monetary and financial system during the functioning of the Bretton Woods agreements were also clearly expressed. Thus, since the creation of the IMF, there have been constant disruptions in this area associated with the negative balance of payments of its participants, in particular those who owned non-convertible currencies. The transfer opportunities of this category of participants were limited, because they, as a rule, did not have export potential, did not influence the IMF policy and actually depended on subsidies from economically developed countries. At the turn of the 60-70s, this decline acquired global proportions. The heads of governments and central banks of many countries expressed doubts about the then exchange rate of the dollar and its support from the US balance of payments. The reasons for the trouble were as follows:

1. After World War II, the Eurodollar market was formed. Western European countries were interested in their high cost, since the dollar was used as a reserve currency.

2. To stimulate the development of export potential and equalize their balance of payments, Western European countries pursued a policy of devaluation, thereby inflating the dollar exchange rate.

3. The United States, implementing a free market policy, refused to introduce quotas on imports of products from Europe and deliberately allowed the positive balance of the balance of payments to turn negative.

4. The United States paid for the majority of its imported products using Treasury bills.

As a result, the rapid development of the world economy and the growth of world trade required an additional influx of dollars into financial markets. It was impossible to respond to this need traditionally - by issuing money due to the dollar being tied to gold; Of course, an increase in the supply of dollars required replenishing the supply of gold, and this was unrealistic.

So, the transfer capabilities of global financial market entities were reduced, because there were not enough dollars in circulation. In addition, there was a danger of their depreciation if the US Federal Reserve nevertheless started printing the press, despite the agreements of 1944.

In the post-war period, the problem of security in international financial markets was extremely acute. In the United States, Europe and Asia, almost simultaneously, measures were developed and implemented aimed at eliminating abuses in the banking sector, the emergence of which was facilitated by the lack of a mechanism for monitoring market participants. The cooperation of the Bank for International Settlements with the central banks of developed countries resulted in the signing of the Basel Concordat (1975), which laid the foundations for security in banking, which are still in effect today. The document talks about the unification of banking terms, the introduction of standards for the level financial stability, as well as on the reporting of banks carrying out international transactions to central banks.

As for changes in the transfer capabilities of global financial market entities, the Jamaican system is the most ambiguous. This is due to two factors:

provided for the introduction of floating exchange rates corresponding to supply and demand;

The global cable and satellite communications network SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) was deployed.

Both factors have eliminated any restrictions on the growth of global trade, providing unprecedented quality of transfer opportunities for market participants, since SWIFT operates on a NATO material and technical base, covering all time zones and supporting about 100 data formats. However, on the other hand, due to the lack of linking of exchange rates and emissions to the gold and foreign exchange reserves of central banks, the control mechanism was lost, which led to an unjustified increase in the dollar supply in the world. Well-known analyst Chris Hedges claims that with beginning of the XXI Art. The United States increased the volume of money in circulation at a rate of $2 billion. per day. The growth of the dollar supply, and in general the increase in turnover in the foreign exchange markets, is explained by the communication capabilities of the SWIFT network: using it, transnational banks easily carried out transactions between their foreign representative offices located in different time zones, and thanks to this they received speculative profits due to exchange rate differences at the beginning and end of the working day. Stock markets, in particular the derivatives market, also began to grow at an unprecedented pace. This is how speculative capital arose, a significant part of which is fictitious (virtual), and the volume significantly exceeds the value of world GDP. Let's take an example: the turnover of the gold derivatives market in Chicago and New York is about 99% of the real gold market in London and Zurich. Moving under the influence of situational differences in supply and demand through communication channels from one market to another, this speculative capital creates the danger of a crisis of non-payments and a collapse of foreign exchange and stock markets. It so happens that developed countries, having large investment resources and extensive communications, are able to influence the situation in financial markets and thereby receive certain benefits from the rise in asset prices or, conversely, from their fall. Developing countries traditionally resort to exchange restrictions to protect the national currency and do not allow the threatening influx of foreign capital, which significantly limits transfer opportunities local entities monetary and financial relations. A problem on a planetary scale also turned out to be a catastrophic increase in the debts of many countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland).

In scientific and business circles, ways to avoid the dangers posed by the modern global monetary and financial system are actively discussed.

The following proposals are considered constructive:

global financial currency transaction

1) ensuring control over foreign exchange markets, removing excess money from circulation;

2) maintaining opportunities for fast, safe and multiple options for international transactions;

3) transition to a multipolar structure of the global monetary and financial system.

When analysts talk about removing the excess amount of money from circulation on a global scale, then, of course, they primarily mean the dollar. If we take into account the volumes of dollars that are in the reserves of the central banks of different countries, it becomes obvious: the joint participation of the main financial poles is required here in order to ensure stability in global financial markets. First of all, participation should consist in preventing sharp fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. This can be achieved by introducing a currency corridor system for all the leading currencies of the world (dollar, euro, British pound, yen, etc.). An important measure in establishing a multipolar world monetary system is expanding the list and balancing the shares of currencies in the basket of special drawing rights (SDR) 10 ; To accomplish such a task, it would be necessary to change the methodology for calculating these shares, in particular, to take into account the regional factor when choosing currencies for the basket.

It is impossible to create corridors for the leading currencies of the world in order to remove the excess mass of dollars from circulation without fundamental changes in the derivatives market. On the one hand, thanks to this market, financial resources quickly accumulate and speculative profits grow, therefore, new companies emerge, competition between investors intensifies, and risks when financing large long-term investment projects are diversified; but, on the other hand, the instability of the derivatives market is the main cause of payment crises in the lending sector. As you know, before the events of 2007-2008. Ukrainian banks received substantial amounts of funds from abroad. Foreign investors, widely promoting promising forecasts about the pace of development of new Ukrainian and other markets in various media, did everything to ensure that the market value of derivative securities increased several times compared to the initial one. But as soon as the first signs of the crisis appeared and the “payment of bills” mechanism began to work, it turned out that the radiant forecasts were overestimated, that is, actual incomes were much less than expected. This caused the bankruptcy of newly created investment funds, a decrease in the ratings of companies that received loans secured by derivatives, a deterioration in the structure and profitability of the loan portfolios of multinational banks, and brought Ukrainian financial institutions into crisis, from which foreign capital was withdrawn.

Special drawing rights (SDR, SDRs) - reserve means of payment, which is issued by the IMF and which exists only in non-cash form in the form of entries in bank accounts. The value of SDRs is calculated based on leading currencies. SDRs were first used in 1969 to solve the problem of international illiquidity. During 2006-2009 the share of the dollar in the SDR basket was 44%, the euro - 34, the yen and pound sterling - 11% each.

In view of the above, the regulation of derivatives markets should be significantly updated. In particular, it is necessary to take restrictive measures to change the market value of derivatives, as well as apply clear mechanisms for linking it to the value of the assets underlying the derivatives. Such measures would have a positive impact on the stability of the global monetary and financial system and national financial markets that are in their infancy, including stock market Ukraine.

In general, of all the introduced monetary and financial systems, the system of currency blocs is the most suitable for the economic development and financial stability of Ukraine. Today there are all the prerequisites for its functioning. Let's list them. Firstly, there are various reserve currencies, which to a certain extent can mutually replace each other. Secondly, there are global communication networks that ensure communication between all regions and currency areas. Thirdly, the division of currencies into central and peripheral, which is envisaged by the very concept of a “currency bloc,” is possible and advisable in the context of a multipolar world monetary system. This division could serve as a real basis for issuing central currencies in volumes corresponding to the needs of a particular zone. Such a procedure would make it possible to weaken the negative impact of the dollar on the Ukrainian economy, deepen the diversification of currencies under export and import contracts, and bring the conditions for the development of the national financial system closer to the system of the country in whose currency zone it would be included. True, we have to admit that intergovernmental agreements are required here that would guarantee the prevention of actions aimed at reducing the transfer capabilities of subjects of the monetary and financial markets.

A system of currency blocs can provide the listed positive effects only if it covers all countries and regions. This is precisely the key to stability in global currency markets. If it spreads only to a certain region or a certain group of countries, then the confrontation between the leading currencies will intensify.

Conclusions

To summarize what has been said, we emphasize that we believe it is necessary to make changes in the global monetary and financial system in those periods when the transfer capabilities of its subjects are declining. The decisions of representative international conferences, as well as permanent specialized organizations, are aimed at increasing them. These solutions can be divided into three groups: effective, ineffective and those that play a dual role. The first group includes decisions on the introduction of a gold coin standard, the Bretton Woods currency system, the creation of a compensatory financing fund, a collective currency (special drawing rights) and the signing of the Basel Concordat. The second group includes decisions on the transition to gold bullion and gold exchange systems and the creation of currency blocs. The third group consists of decisions about the Jamaican currency system and the SWIFT network.

The work reflects the stages of evolution of the global monetary and financial system regarding changes in the transfer capabilities of its subjects, depending on the availability of resource and communication conditions for carrying out transactions, obtaining financial resources and information about financial market conditions, etc.

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