Without exaggeration, one of the most important and expected by Russians financial documents in our country can be called federal budget. It contains basic information about the planned cash flows in Russia: income components, expected expenses. The budget reflects in figures all the activities, programs and payments planned by our Government.

The formation and execution of the document is regulated by law. So, for the next financial year it has been signed and public information from it is already available. About the adopted budget of Russia for 2017 in numbers - read the article below.

Structure of the planned state budget

What is this document? It is compiled by the Government of the Russian Federation on the basis of a forecast of socio-economic development, which contains the expected parameters of indicators affecting the country's income. From them, the expected income items are formed. Then the revenue part is distributed to the necessary needs of the country.

The drafted document is sent to the State Duma for consideration. It must be approved in three readings, after the introduction of possible amendments. To date, the Russian budget for 2017 has been adopted in terms of the forecast for development and income.

Forecast values

What figures are the country's leadership oriented towards in the near future? The base scenario, which is the basis of the budget, contains the forecast values:

• Oil price: $40;
• Dollar exchange rate (average per year): 67.5-71 rubles;
• Gross domestic product: 86.8 trillion. rubles (growth 0.6%);
• Inflation (rising consumer prices): 4%.

Income

Budget revenues next year will amount to 13.42 trillion. rubles. The corresponding budget of Russia for 2017 in dollars will be about 200 million. This corresponds to the budget revenues of 2016 almost completely. The revenue part of the budget consists of the following main revenues:

Oil and gas sector (5029 billion rubles):

• Customs duties.

Others (8408 billion rubles):

• Excises (alcohol, fuel, tobacco products);
• Corporate income tax;
• Mineral extraction tax;
• Customs duties;
• Other.

For comparison, let's look at the ratio in 2012: 50.2% - income from the oil and gas sector and 49.8% - all the rest. Now income from the oil industry is less than the rest by a third. This distribution does not require comments and immediately answers one of the most popular questions - how much Russia is dependent on oil.

Expenses

According to the budget, expenses are expected in the amount of 16.18 trillion. rubles. This is 425 billion rubles. less than the previous year, but by 2.75 trillion. more income.

The expenditure part of the country's budget causes much more controversy among deputies. After the first reading, about 500 amendments were made, 3 out of 4 parties were against the proposed document. Consider the expenditure items of the adopted budget.

• National issues: 1170 billion rubles. (+72 billion compared to last year);
• National defense: 2840 billion rubles (- 1000 billion rubles);
• National security: 1968 billion rubles (+25 billion rubles);
• Economy: 2292 billion rubles (+124 billion rubles);
• Housing and communal services: 30 billion rubles. (-30 billion rubles);
• Environmental protection: 76 billion rubles (+11 billion rubles);
• Education: 568 billion rubles (+10 billion rubles);
• Culture and cinema: 94 billion rubles (+2 billion rubles);
• Medicine and healthcare: 377 billion rubles (-89 billion rubles);
• Social policy: 5080 billion rubles (+450 billion rubles);
• Sports: 86 billion rubles (+20 billion rubles);
• Mass media: 74 billion rubles. (-2 billion rubles);
• Public debt: 729 billion rubles (+89 billion rubles).

After the second reading, part of the costs was redistributed. As you can see, investments in the economy will increase next year. It is planned to allocate significant funds to support small and medium-sized businesses, as well as to subsidize the regions. The budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017 is also planned to be increased. Funds have been added for the reconstruction of sports facilities, additional subsidies are waiting for regional media.

The military budget of Russia for 2017 (National Defense section) will be reduced, and will amount to 73% of last year. 2 times will cut the cost of housing and communal services.

However, not all state treasury expenditures are available: 18% of them are not open data and are classified.

deficit

The budget deficit of Russia for 2017 still takes place, despite the planned growth of the economy and significantly reduced (by 425 billion rubles) expenditures. Its value is very significant - 2.75 trillion. rub., which is a fifth of the revenue or 3.16% of GDP.

According to the project for the next 2018-2019, its size will gradually decrease, however, over these three years, completely get rid of the deficit Money in the treasury will not work, even in conditions of the strictest economy.

If we analyze the dynamics of financial revenues to the state budget, we can see that the deficit is due to a decrease in the profitability of the oil and gas sector. At present, the government is faced with the goal of not only reducing the budget deficit, but also reducing oil dependence by reorienting the economy to a new investment development model.

Where is the difference?

The budget deficit in Russian Federation has been taking place for more than a year, and all the previous time it was compensated from the Reserve Fund. Remaining there today 1.15 trillion. rubles will be spent in the first few months, but even this money will not be enough to finance the necessary expenses.

How will funds be raised for the remaining almost 2 trillion. rubles? Last news on the Russian budget for 2017 announce the decision to partially use the National Welfare Fund. Almost 67 billion rubles will be used for urgent needs. Loan bonds will also be placed on the domestic market in the amount of about 2 trillion. rubles. Such a solution was proposed by the Ministry of Finance, and, apparently, it has no worthy alternatives.

Other options for reducing the deficit include amending the Tax code, resulting in an increased the tax burden help in some way in this situation. Thus, the mineral extraction tax on oil products and gas will increase, excise taxes on fuel - diesel and fifth-class gasoline - will increase. Wine, tobacco products and e-cigarettes will also be subject to higher rates.

Conclusion

The crisis of 2014 showed all the imperfections of the current economic model in Russia. Significant dependence on the income of only one sector of the economy, the lack of adequate cash reserves and other issues related to the political orientation require revision and restructuring in accordance with the needs of the time.

However, the political course chosen by the Government to stabilize the situation in the country proved to be quite effective. The economy shows growth, foreign analysts from time to time improve their own forecasts regarding the socio-economic development of Russia. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the planned elimination of the budget deficit for 3 years should be implemented.

On December 20, Vladimir Putin signed the main financial document for the country for the next year. According to him, the well-being of Russians will not improve much in the near future, but it may worsen even more in 2018-20. Because, if we consider Russia's budget for 2017 in numbers, it can only be described as "consuming". Unfortunately, it does not provide for any real anti-crisis program or import substitution plan. On the other hand, there are several curious moments that can suggest what the future, according to the forecasts of the Government, awaits the citizens of the Russian Federation.

What budget in figures was adopted by the deputies for Russia in 2017

In the country's main financial document, it is indicated that the state intends to spend about 16.241 trillion next year with an income of 13.488 trillion rubles. What do these numbers mean for ordinary Russians?

Three hard years

Structure of expenses in dollars

If we consider the projected expenditures for 2017, then, compared to last year, their total size in the federal budget has not changed much. By and large, that 16.241, that 16.098 trillion rubles - the difference is not very big. At the current rate (60.8528 rubles / dollar), about 250 billion in dollars. For comparison: spending in the US budget is 16 times more, and in the budget of Belarus 30 times less.

However, if you look not at the total volumes, but at the cost structure, then there is a clear trend towards an increase in injections of money into the “siloviki” and the army, with a reduction in spending on the social, scientific, medical and educational spheres. In particular, compared to last year:

• medical expenses will decrease by 10%;
• the cost of housing and communal services will increase by 40%;
• Pension Fund will receive less than 175 billion rubles;
• the educational sector will miss about 8%.

At the same time, the defense budget will be increased by 72 billion rubles, not counting the planned increase in the salaries of a significant part of the security forces.

Expenditure part:

What does such a budget adjustment mean for the average citizen? It's simple:

1. Rising military spending speaks of preparations for military conflicts.
2. The increase in spending on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and special services indicates preparations for internal unrest.
3. Reducing the cost of social, educational and medical field with a large amount of reserves shows that the inflow of money is decreasing and this is a long-term trend.

Sources of income

Regarding the revenues included in the federal budget, their size also differs little from last year - 13.44 trillion in 2017 to 13.738 trillion rubles in 2016. This is about 225 billion in dollars.

Budget revenues:

Year	2015	2016
total income	13659	13369
Oil and gas	5863	4778
of them
NDPI	3160	2819
export duties	2703	1959
Not oil and gas	7797	8591
of them
corporate income tax	491	465
VAT on goods sold in the Russian Federation	2448	2637
VAT on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation	1785	1910
excises on goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation	528	623
excises on goods imported into the territory of the Russian Federation	54	57
import duties	560	542

As can be seen from the table, the Government's forecast oil revenues will decrease next year, but this is planned to be covered by increasing various taxes, fees, excises and duties.

Real budget deficit

Even with regard to income and expenses, one nuance should be clarified - the correct understanding of the size of the deficit. The point is that the representatives of the authorities in the news, commenting on the federal budget, say: "Next year, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation will be at the level of (number) percent of GDP." What's wrong here?

GDP is the gross domestic product of the entire economy of the state, while the federal budget of Russia is the costs and expenses of all state structures, i.e. only a small part of the country's economy. In other words, what government officials say when comparing the budget deficit with GDP is the same as comparing the finances of an individual educator with income kindergarten. The number will come out less, but the employee does not give a real understanding of the level of costs and expenses.

In reality, if you look at the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers, it turns out that its deficit is 20%. Simply put, the state spends 20% more than it earns!

What is curious about the 2017 federal budget?

As already noted, in the federal budget of the Russian Federation for the next year there are several interesting points that can tell about what awaits the Russians in the future. The most important of them are these.

Hiding military spending

According to official information, the state plans to cut military spending in 2017 from 3.89 to 2.84 trillion rubles. At the same time, 2.771 trillion rubles of them are secret articles, the intended use of which is practically not controlled by anyone. However, if we consider the budget expenditures that relate to the military, but are not spelled out in the article on defense, then we can find the same amount of funds allocated for the army.

Experts have calculated that the 2017 budget will spend up to 4.5 trillion rubles on military spending. At the same time, a significant part of them, like the official costs of the army, are classified.

What are these funds spent on? Ideally, for the army and providing military personnel with everything necessary, including housing and transport. But in reality, things are a little different. For example, in 2016, the government allocated an additional 800 billion “secret” rubles to pay off loans that the army took out in 2010 for rearmament. How the money borrowed was spent can be found in the case of Evgenia Vasilyeva.

Who will be responsible for budget adjustments?

The next curious fact that can be noted, looking at the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers, is that they plan to cover the 20% deficit by using money from the reserve fund and the national welfare fund. Almost everything will be taken from the first - $ 50 billion, from the second - the missing part. At the same time, non-stucha will also be reduced due to the privatization of state property and budget adjustments:

• liquidation of a part of long-term investment projects;
• mineralization of indexation of civil servants' salaries;
• reduction of subsidies by regions.

The document’s forecast for the next year on key indicators for the Russian economy

1. The average price per barrel of oil is $40.
2. The average annual dollar exchange rate is 67 rubles.
3. The projected GDP is 1.4 trillion dollars (86.8 trillion rubles).
4. The reserve fund in 2018 will be equal to 0.
5. The size of the mother is 453 thousand rubles.

In addition, next year's budget adjustment will reduce program allocations:

• « Economic development and innovative economy” — decrease by 22.8%;
• "Promotion of employment of the population" - a decrease of 29.4%;
• "Health Development" - a decrease of 25%.

Summary

Summing up, we can say that the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers indicates a continuation economic crisis. At the same time, the Government does not have a plan to get out of it. They just want to wait it out, covering the lack of money with privatization and spending reserve funds.

The battle for the 2017 budget is over

The economic situation in the Russian Federation, which has developed at the moment, is the subject of close attention from not only leading financial analysts, owners big business or small entrepreneurs, but also ordinary citizens. The crisis phenomena that are observed today in many economies of the world are aggravated in Russia by the fact that in recent years it has been under the influence of Western sanctions.

The government's point of view is that this fact should not dishearten Russians. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive development, because long-term economic isolation will help develop own production and improve technological advances, which will ultimately provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.

The draft document was published by employees of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on 10/12/2016, and it is he who will determine the structure of state revenues and expenditures for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to new realities, including low oil prices, declining cash reserves and "Western restrictions" on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget in order to find out the government's priorities.

Innovations in the State Budget of Russia

To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures that characterize this bill can already be analyzed.

Among the main innovations are the following points:

The Government intends to return to the old practice of adopting unified budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion voiced by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in leveling the accumulated budget imbalances;
A distinctive feature of the new document was the change in the structure of sources for financing the budget deficit. If in the current year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years, representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more - borrowed funds attracted in the domestic market.

The revenue part of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2017

It should be noted that the revenue part in the 2017 budget is fixed at the level of 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year's figure. Many economists say that if inflation expectations are also taken into account, then in real terms this part of the budget will continue its downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.

Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened positions of the ruble - the quotation of 71.1 rubles per 1 U.S. $. Oil quotes included in the budget of the Russian Federation are forecasted at $40/barrel. In addition, it should be noted that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue part will tend to decrease - in 2019 this share will be 15%.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called ensuring income without additional tax reforms and raising the retirement age as the main goal of the government. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts attribute the government's optimism to completely different reasons.

So, for example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector of the RANEPA, says that the forecast growth of the revenue side of the Ministry of Finance is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its execution by income from taxation on mining, which the Ministry of Finance has pledged in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. The second reason she calls a possible increase in excise duties.

The expenditure side of the Russian budget

Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this indicator was announced in a slightly smaller amount. So, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 - 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing the expenditure side of the budget is the only way to ensure budget consolidation.

Recall that the costs in the budget of the Russian Federation are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.е. 18% of all spending will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of "hidden" costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this by some plans that provide for early settlement of loan obligations of defense enterprises.

If we consider the functional areas of expenditure item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:

It is planned to allocate 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. In this case, the government demonstrates a tendency to reduce social needs, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
the national economy will receive allocations in the amount of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion, and in 2019 - 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, funding national economy will be reduced from 14.2% of all expenses to 12.9%. It is rather strange that, with a policy of cutting spending on this item, government financiers predict the country will soon the economic growth. It is not entirely clear what reasons this growth can provoke - in the context of sanctions and an investment blockade, foreign investment cannot be counted on, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take bank loans due to exorbitant interest;
the needs of national defense will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. The indicated figure is the open part budget spending to this article. Taking into account closed items, which make up the gross part of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in appropriations. In 2018, the allocations will amount to 2.72, and in 2019 - 2.856 trillion. In three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the total expenditure part of the budget, which indicates high degree"militarization" of this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is the implementation of structural reforms related to production and the reduction of military spending. Nevertheless, this recommendation of experts has been ignored by the government for many years now;
spending on national security and law enforcement is on the rise. The law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
the costs associated with education, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and leave 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
The health sector also does not cause particular concern for the government: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 - 394 and 369 billion rubles each, respectively.

The analysis of hidden costs led to the following conclusions:

Government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the entire budget expenditures and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure in 2016;
a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen directions, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate intergovernmental transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
150 "secret" billion rubles will be allocated under the article "National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies";
items that include "other matters" and "hidden costs" together account for about 24% of the total expenditure Russian budget.

About the budget deficit

The budget for the next three years is planned as a deficit. In 2017, this figure will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase budget deficit up to 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some forecasts of economists, this figure may reach 3.26 trillion, moving close to the mark of 3.9% of GDP.

This value will be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth quoting the words expressed on this occasion by Vladimir Putin.

The President mentioned that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, but he maintains the healthy optimism of state financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that in comparison with the 2016 budget, the income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and the expenditure should decrease by 670 billion rubles. national currency.

It is also worth considering the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which has already reached the 2016 budget, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, then the total may reach 16.63 trillion rubles.

Financiers are more optimistic about the future, assuming that already in 2018 the country may reach a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the analytical agency Fitch say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hurt the budget filling.

State debt of the Russian Federation

As already mentioned, public financiers are planning to increase the level of borrowing in order to cover the budget deficit.

Presumably, these will mainly be internal loans, which will amount to:

1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to give another 1.6 trillion rubles;
in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.

In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the maturity of the bonds, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles, is suitable. It is possible that the amount of placed federal loan bonds will amount to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a certain degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds at high rates from the government.

It is worth noting that the change in the sources of financing the deficit is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that given source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to give 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until February 1, 2020.

The bar for borrowing in foreign markets is dropping sharply. It is planned to attract no more than 7 billion US dollars from external sources in 2017, and in the next two - another 3 billion dollars each, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.

In 2017, the main financial institution of the country will simply refinance the expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy valuable papers by 7.3 billion c.u. We note right away that many experts believe that the chief financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but because of the ongoing sanctions, which concern, among other things, the sphere of lending.

The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation by the beginning of 2020 will increase, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the level of 2016 by 1.8%. In the next three years, the total amount of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are intimidated by the comparison of US$55 billion in external public debt with domestic debt(almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.

The budget issue and Chechnya

The planned budget aimed at cost savings has already caused discontent in some regions. Recall that after the project was published, dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through the social network Instagram was expressed by Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the Russian president.

In his statement, Peskov noted that the country's economy is characterized by difficulties that are related not only to the federation as a whole, but also to its individual regions. The presidential speaker focused on the fact that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of discussion points, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the dissatisfaction of individual federal subjects - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.

Not so long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to criticize the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic has not received funds for a long time within the framework of the federal target program concerning the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. The reduction of the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will have a negative impact on social obligations.

Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov's leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies in the amount of 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidized leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). The budget of Chechnya, and so on 80-87% is formed by deductions from the national budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.

However, with a very solid amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to take 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of monetary incomes of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of them are modestly recorded under the article not “salary”, but “other income”.

In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At least, it definitely does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve crisis issues, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up the remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict exacerbation of external risks for the country's economy, but they talk about the possibility of aggravation of internal risks.

In many ways, the viability of the RF budget depends on the oil market.

Blame the already mentioned oil prices. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, makes it impossible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why the cost of elections cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. Nevertheless, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, even these statements cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.

The draft new budget is still going through the final approval stages, because the document must be approved not only by the Ministry of Finance, but also by the Ministry of Economic Development before being agreed with the State Duma deputies. At each stage, the draft document will undergo several revisions, and only after that it will be made public as an approved financial plan for the country.

However, one should not count on significant changes. Most likely, Russia will enter the new “three-year plan” with a conservative budget, and the government will hope that increased oil prices will at least slightly stabilize the economic situation and raise social standards for the population.

Law on the state budget for 2017

Federal law passed State Duma December 9, 2016 and approved by the Federation Council on December 14, 2016.

Certificate of the State Legal Administration

The federal law establishes the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2017 are determined based on the projected volume of gross domestic product in the amount of 86,806.0 billion rubles and an inflation rate not exceeding 4.0 percent. The projected total volume of federal budget revenues is 13,487.6 billion rubles, the volume of expenditures is 16,240.8 billion rubles. The federal budget deficit is set at 2,753.2 billion rubles.

The federal law also approves the standards for the distribution of revenues between the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019, programs for state external and internal borrowings of the Russian Federation and state guarantees, determines the features of administering budget revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation, features of the implementation of federal budget and writing off certain types of debt to the federal budget.

The State Duma adopted in the third, final reading the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019. 315 deputies voted for its adoption, 99 were against, the correspondent of Rosbalt reports.

According to the document, treasury revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.488 trillion. rubles, expenses - 16.241 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 2.753 trillion. rubles. In 2018, these figures are planned at the level of 14.029 trillion. rubles, 16.04 trillion. rubles, 2.011 trillion. rubles, respectively. In 2019, revenues will amount to 14.845 trillion. rubles, expenses - 15.987 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 1.142 trillion. rubles.

The budget for 2017 is based on the oil price of $40 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, such an assessment of the level of oil prices is conservative, as it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices.

The share of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will continue to decline from 37.4% in 2017 to 36% in 2019. Non-oil and gas revenues relative to GDP will remain almost at a stable level (9.7% of GDP in 2017-2018 and 9.6% of GDP in 2019).

In 2017, the average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to remain at the level of 67.5 rubles per dollar, in 2018 the exchange rate is predicted to weaken to 68.7 rubles per dollar, in 2019 - to 71.1 rubles per dollar.

In 2017, spending on general government issues is planned in the amount of 1.135 trillion. rubles, national defense - 1.121 trillion. rubles, security and law enforcement - 1.270 trillion. rubles, the national economy - 2.292 trillion. rubles, housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles, environmental protection - 76.4 billion rubles, education - 568 billion rubles, culture and cinematography - 94 billion rubles, healthcare - 377 billion rubles, social policy - 5, 08 trillion. rubles, the media - 73.4 billion rubles, physical culture and sports - 89.7 billion rubles, servicing the public debt - 729 billion rubles, intergovernmental transfers - 783.5 billion rubles.

In the 2017 budget, the share of secret spending is 17.1%, with 11% of it going to sections not related to national defense and security.

Net capital outflow will increase from $20 billion in 2017 to $25 billion in 2018 and 2019. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2017 the GDP growth rate will move into the positive area and will amount to 0.6%, in 2018 year of GDP will rise to 1.7%, in 2019 - to 2.1%. By the end of 2017, inflation is forecast to drop to 4%.

It is predicted that the Reserve Fund will be fully depleted in 2017. The volume of the National Wealth Fund will be reduced from 4,702.3 billion rubles at the beginning of 2017 to 3,056.2 billion rubles at the beginning of 2020.

At the same time, due to significant state domestic borrowing, an increase in the volume of public debt is planned in the next three years. At the end of 2017, it will amount to 13,972.2 billion rubles, in 2018 - 15,177.1 billion rubles, and in 2019 - 16,651.9 billion rubles.

When considering the document in the second reading, the deputies redistributed 540 billion rubles for 2017 and more than 1 trillion. rubles for the period 2018-2019. In particular, it was decided to increase credit support for the subjects of the Russian Federation from the federal budget from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. In 2017, the regions will also receive a separate type of subsidies - to ensure a balanced budget. Thus, Crimea will receive an additional 18.65 billion rubles, Sevastopol - 5.16 billion rubles, and Chechnya - 16.4 billion rubles.

Additional funds will receive banks and agro-industrial complex. So, credit organizations will be able to count on additional subsidies to compensate for the lost income they received from loans issued to agricultural enterprises. We are talking about the amount of 21.3 billion rubles in 2017, 17.6 billion in 2018 and 17.17 billion rubles in 2019. An additional 10.638 billion rubles will be allocated to support the agro-industrial complex.

Three Duma factions voted against the adoption of the budget - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia. “The budget is not numbers, it is the fate of people, and this Trishkin caftan cannot be patched up, it will not fit on the shoulders of huge Russia,” said, in particular, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov. According to him, the government gave 2 trillion to save the banks. rubles, which "spread offshore". "According to official information, out of the 800 billion allocated for investments, only 3.4% was directed to investments," Zyuganov added.

He is convinced that "the crisis will only grow." "Ticks will continue to squeeze the throat of the country and all of us," the leader of the Communist Party concluded.

State Duma deputy from A Just Russia, Alexander Burkov, said that the country was "imposed on the budget of the fall of the Russian economy." “The parents of this budget should be deprived of parental rights,” he said. According to the deputy, when drafting the budget, the government "saved 250 billion rubles on the elderly, while it wants to squeeze 150 billion on bonuses to officials."

State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Aleksey Didenko noted that the new budget did not become the "budget of national salvation" and is adopted by United Russia practically without taking into account the opinions of other factions. “1 trillion. rubles was distributed by one faction, how can this budget be called the budget of national accord? - the deputy was indignant.

It should be noted that 47 extra-parliamentary parties were invited to consider the draft budget in the third reading, but they were not given the floor, but were offered to listen to the discussion on the Duma balcony.

State budget revenues in 2017

The tense global political situation makes citizens think about the future. Russia is going through hard times. The economy, one might say, is being reborn anew, and this entails the inevitability of costs in the form of a federal budget deficit. The people do not feel stable, and therefore they are already asking the question: what is the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers?

Important factors are taken into account when preparing a budget. This is the oil and gas component, the dollar exchange rate, the general world situation. Laying articles for the next three-year period, the authorities also paid attention to the existing sanctions of foreign states against our country and Russia's response to them.

The law that determined the budget for 2016 was an innovation, because traditionally the budget is determined for the next year and planned for another 2 years. But in view of the lack of clear forecasts and constant changes (not always for the better), the government did not dare to take responsibility for predicting 3 years ahead.

However, in 2016, the authorities seem to be optimistic, because in the coming weeks Russia's budget for 2017 will be adopted and funds for 2018 and 2019 will be pledged. The federal law will come into force on January 01, 2017.

Budget revenues and expenditures

So, according to the project federal law, state revenues will amount to 13.4 trillion rubles. Expenses, in turn, 16.2 trillion. What do these numbers say? Yes, the state does not have enough money. Nominally, these are almost the numbers of 2016. Of course, inflation is also important, taking it into account, income, compared to the previous year, will decrease. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the state is able to reduce costs and increase the revenue component. The forecasts are quite good: if the Russian budget deficit for 2017 is 2.8 billion, then in 2018 it will be 2 billion, and in 2019 it will be 1.1 billion rubles.

Gross domestic product next year is projected to be 86.8 billion. By 2019, it is likely to rise to 98.8 billion.

In the process of drafting the law on the budget, the authorities repeatedly emphasized that the only way to stabilize the budget is to cut costs as much as possible. Moreover, such a policy is still in effect: the expected budget deficit in 2016 was to be 3.7 billion. However, amendments have already been made to reduce this figure. Now it is a little over 3 billion rubles. It is likely that in 2017 the deficit has a chance of reducing by more than 15%.

Where to get scarce funds

In 2016, most of the deficit was covered by the Reserve Fund. Now it stores almost 3 billion rubles. In 2017, the prospects for the Reserve Fund have already been determined: it will completely dry up. Therefore, this part of the financing had to be radically changed. Now the National Wealth Fund will be involved, the value of which is 4.6 trillion. In 2017, it will empty by 0.66 trillion, and in 2018 - by 1.2 trillion. rubles.

In general, the state seeks to reduce external borrowing and prioritize domestic borrowing. In terms of external debt, the Russian budget for 2017 in dollars will stop at $7 billion, and in subsequent years the upper limit of the loan will drop to $3 billion. Moreover, according to the authorities, even these figures can be borrowed on the domestic market, in foreign currency.

Ministry of Finance in explanatory note to the draft federal budget law indicated that the general state debt in the period 2017-2019 will not exceed a safe mark of 20% of GDP.

The structure of budget expenditures

The smallest part in the structure of expenditures for 2017 is occupied by such areas as education and healthcare (3.5% and 2.3%, respectively). The government promises to reduce the number of state-funded places in universities by more than 40%. Student scholarships will also be reduced. This measure is aimed at reducing the cost of education and will entail massive layoffs of researchers and teachers. In addition, the provision of the education development program is being reduced. In 2017, it will be cut by more than 20%.

14.2% fell to the share of the national economy. It is planned to increase the entrepreneurial ability of the population, thereby restoring economic growth, support some investment projects.

The budget in the housing and communal services sector is rapidly shrinking: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 58 billion rubles to this sector, and in 2018 only 28.8 billion rubles.

The budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017 will amount to almost 1968 billion rubles, which is 12.2% of the share of total expenditures. However, this department is waiting for significant changes, first of all, they relate to staffing. The requirements are being tightened not only for the professional qualities of an employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but now the moral and psychological aspects of the personality of a single employee are playing a big role. These criteria were also introduced in part as conditions for staff reductions. By October 2017, the number of police officers may decrease by almost 10%. This means that 100 thousand employees will be left without work. Innovations will have little effect on employees working "on the ground", directly with the population (district, for example). The share of their reductions will not exceed 2%. Pleasant bonuses await those who remain in the ranks of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - a 5% increase in salary.

Since 2015, Russia has outlined a direct course to support and strengthen national defense. The military budget of Russia in 2017 will amount to 2840 billion in 2017. This is 6% less than in 2016, adjusted for inflation. It is worth noting the existence of the so-called closed, secret items in the budget. In the field of defense, 800 billion are planned for such an article. There are opinions that this money will be used for early fulfillment of obligations on loans to defense enterprises in order to save interest.

Social sphere

The government is returning to a three-year budgeting cycle to address structural imbalances. The Russian budget for 2017 reflects in numbers the desire of officials to switch to austerity. At the same time, the government does not predict a significant increase in oil prices, and the budget deficit remains at a high level.

Russia's budget for 2017 in numbers

The transition to a three-year budget cycle will eliminate existing imbalances, representatives of the Ministry of Finance are sure. Prior to this, the federal budget was developed for each year, which led to negative consequences in the face of a falling economy. The budget deficit of the current year will reach 3.9%, which is the maximum value for the last 6 years. The main task of the Ministry of Finance is to reduce the deficit to 1.2% by 2019.

Experts emphasize that the transition to a three-year cycle indicates that the acute phase of the crisis has been overcome. Under the current conditions, representatives of the economic bloc can plan the development of the situation in the medium term, which allows using more tools to stabilize the situation.

The key forecast parameter that affects the 2017 budget is the cost of oil. Officials have laid down a rather conservative forecast for oil prices - $40 per barrel. If oil quotes rise higher, then the government will receive an additional source of financing, with the help of which the Reserve Fund will be filled.

The revenue part of the budget for 2017 remains unchanged - 13.44 trillion rubles. (against 13.37 in 2016). Given the current rate of inflation, real revenues to the budget continue to decline. A change in this trend is expected only in 2019.

The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that the tax burden on businesses in the medium term will not increase. Moreover, officials allow a reduction in the tax burden, which will stimulate the development of entrepreneurship.

The most pressing issue remains the need to cut costs. Despite all the attempts of officials, the cost part of the future budget continues to significantly outstrip the planned revenues.

Deficit spending: running out of reserves

The total budget expenditures for next year reach 16.18 trillion rubles. The budget deficit of Russia in 2017 is expected at the level of 3.16% (2.74 trillion rubles). Compared with the absolute deficit of the current year, this figure will be reduced by 16%, the Ministry of Finance emphasizes.

The structure of the expenditure side remains unchanged - the main items of expenditure remain the social sphere (31.4%) and national security and defense (29.8%). At the same time, the shares of spending on health care and education will amount to only 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively. The share of classified spending will be about 18%, which is significantly less than in 2016 (22%).

A number of sources will be used to finance the Russian budget deficit for 2017. First of all, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase domestic borrowing, which will help relieve the excessive burden on reserve funds. More than 1 trillion rubles will be borrowed annually on the domestic market, which is twice the borrowing rate of the current year. In addition, next year the Ministry of Finance will have to redeem government bonds in the amount of 829 billion rubles.

The reserve fund next year will “lose weight” by another 1.15 trillion rubles. As a result, this source of funding will be completely exhausted. Another 660 billion rubles. officials plan to draw from the funds of the National Welfare Fund. In subsequent years, the rate of spending on the reserves of the NWF will increase.

Change is delayed

The structure of the domestic budget remains unchanged, which indicates the unwillingness of the authorities to solve the accumulated problems, experts say. The main items of expenditure are the social sphere and defense, which in fact is the budget of "eating". At the same time, the government is constantly postponing the launch of pension reform, which would help balance the situation.

Despite a significant margin of safety, financing the budget deficit is turning into a serious problem. During the crisis, the Russian Federation completely depleted the existing reserves. Future privatization and the growth of domestic debt will resolve the issue in the short term, but a new collapse in oil prices could trigger a structural crisis.

To reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors, it is necessary to make changes to the current economic model. In particular, it will be necessary to go through a painful period of reducing the share of social spending. The saved resources should be directed to investments and the development of infrastructure projects, which will create new factors for economic growth.

Russia's budget for 2017 remains in deficit. The expenditure side exceeds revenues by 2.74 trillion rubles, which will lead to further depletion of reserve funds and an increase in domestic debt.

The main cost items remain the social sphere and defense, which indicates the conservation of existing problems. As a result Russian economy will remain tied to the dynamics of oil prices.