The most predictable currency pair. The calmest and most predictable currency pairs on Forex

There are many reasons why traders in the Forex currency market can lose their deposits - from the unprofessionalism of the traders themselves to the illegal actions of brokers. A special one among the reasons is the trading instrument (currency pair) that is not suitable for the trader, because the currency pair being traded can always be changed, i.e. eliminate the cause of failure.

Some categories of traders are more suited to volatile currency pairs, on the sharp movement of which they earn the main profit. Others on these sudden movements lose their deposits. Therefore, they should choose currency pairs with a calm “character” as trading instruments. It should be noted that there are no absolutely calm currency pairs; there is always the possibility of an important event, the occurrence of an unfavorable natural phenomenon, etc. Thus, by a calm currency pair we will understand its movement under normal conditions.

Calm currency pairs in the forex market

Australian Dollar/Danish Krone (Aud/Dkk). An established, unidirectional trend for a given pair can last for several weeks. An unfavorable point for traders when trading this currency pair is the large spread (the average spread is 30 points).

Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (Aud/Nzd). The stable movement of this currency pair is easily explained - the exchange rates of both currencies included in the pair are influenced by the same factors. However, the daily volatility of this currency pair can be more than 100 points. The spread value is smaller than for the previous pair, but still quite high (10-15 points), which, of course, scares off a certain percentage of traders.

Euro/ Australian dollar(Eur/Aud). Unlike previous couples, it has more or less acceptable trading conditions(spread 5 – 10 points). It should be noted that for this pair sometimes there are sharp jumps exchange rate, but all of them are determined by fundamental factors, the occurrence of most of which can be learned in advance from the economic calendar.

General conclusions

As we can see, most calm currency pairs contain the Australian dollar. But you shouldn’t look at the Australian dollar/US dollar pair in the same way; it has very unpredictable movements. The main reason that pushes traders away from trading calm currency pairs is the large size of the spread. Accordingly, you need to make transactions on such pairs only if you expect a large profit that can cover the costs.

Good day, dear readers of the blog site! We continue to develop the topic of trading in the financial market, today we’ll talk about Forex currency pairs.

There are mirror pairs - when there is a clear upward trend on the chart of one instrument, and bears are in power on the chart of the other.

Let's take EUR/AUD and AUD/CHF as an example. The specularity is not as pronounced as the symmetry in the screenshot above, but still.

Euro exchange rate in Australian dollars.

Australian dollar to Swiss francs exchange rate.

Specularity does not imply absolutely opposite movements, just as symmetry does not guarantee complete coincidence. Because exchange rate dynamics are also affected by non-overlapping currencies. In the case of AUD/CHF, we observe a powerful decline on January 15, 2015, because the pair has a franc, while EUR/AUD does not and cannot have it.

What happened in January 2015 - we’ll talk about this in the final part of the material.

Designation of currency pairs and assessment of currency value

Currency pairs in the trading terminal are displayed only in one format, which has developed historically. There is, for example, a pair USD/RUB, but not RUB/USD. That is, we see the dollar exchange rate expressed in rubles, but we do not know how much the ruble is worth if we convert it into dollars.

How did we get here? Based on the property of proportion.

USD/RUB = 60. The quote reflects the cost of one unit of currency. Therefore, 1USD/RUB = 60. How many rubles we need to determine, so we take rubles as “X”. We get the proportion.

Multiplying units gives one. To find X, divide the product by 60, come to 1/60 = 0.01 (6), round, get 0.017.

Let me remind you that in the terminal the rate of each currency pair is indicated with 5 decimal places. There are brokers that provide quotes accurate to 4 digits, but they are few. Five characters are needed to determine the cost of an entire lot of a particular currency.

Why the five-digit designation appeared, read the article “What is the price.” Let's talk about some more interesting things there, in particular, about Dutch bulbs.

If the GBP/USD rate = 1.30305, then to determine the cost of a standard lot we multiply this value by 100,000. Because 1 lot is 100,000 units of currency. To multiply by one hundred thousand, we move the decimal point to five places - $130,305 - this is how much the broker will pay for our transaction.

How much will we pay? That is, how much money will we put down as collateral? Read it if you haven’t done so before, otherwise you won’t get far. The deposit depends on the leverage - if the leverage is 1:100, we will need $1,303.05, if 1:1,000, $130,305 will be enough.

We will talk about large corrective pullbacks in the article on wave analysis. Let's look at Ralph Elliott's wave theory there. Take note.

Exotic currencies are used by traders to make money on swaps, we have already talked about this earlier.

Let's learn everything about currency pairs

At first, it is advisable to choose 1 - 2 currency pairs for trading, gradually increasing the number of instruments. If you are speculating medium- or long-term, observing several pairs at the same time will not be difficult.

You need to know everything about the chosen financial instrument. Which countries own the currencies in the pair, on what fundamental factors they depend to a greater and lesser extent, how well they respond technical analysis. In the process of constant trading, you will find out whether the chosen instrument likes to present surprises and make spontaneous price jumps.

By the way, although currency pairs are traded around the clock, they also go to bed - at different times, the price movements of different instruments are not the same in intensity.

Forex is influenced stock exchanges, which in different states do not open and close at the same time. Trading sessions are distinguished based on their operating periods.

Here are the names of the sessions, their time intervals in Moscow and the currencies that are most intensively traded in each period. Exchanges are located in different cities, cities in different time zones. Therefore, sessions begin and end not at a specific moment, but within an hour.

During the American session, currency pairs with the US dollar fluctuate intensively, during the Asian session - with Japanese yen and so on.

Large states in the global economy are like neighbors in an apartment building. One country influences another in one way or another.

If you go to bed at night, and the neighbors upstairs are having a party, you are unlikely to be able to sleep a wink. The situation is similar in the financial market. When the Asian session begins and traders speculate on the Japanese yen, the Eurodollar cannot sleep peacefully and also reacts with price jumps.

We will talk about nuances of this kind in a separate article “Forex Trading Sessions”.

Let's return to the topic. It is especially important to know the spread and swap values ​​for a currency pair and the current volatility. Data on spreads and swaps are indicated on the website of the brokerage firm; in Alpari, the section is called “Contract Specifications”.

Look for information on the website of your broker only, since spread and swap values ​​vary from company to company.

Volatility is the amplitude of price fluctuations. To measure daily volatility means to determine the distance between the maximum and minimum price of a financial instrument during the day.

The price of a financial instrument is like a pilgrim traveling on foot. Every day a person on foot will cover different distances, but on average a young wanderer always covers a longer distance than an older one.

Moreover, the average speed is also a variable value. The air temperature, the condition of the road, and the general well-being of a person will either increase or decrease it.

It’s similar in the Forex trader’s toolkit: there are high-volatility and low-volatility pairs. The former are full of strength and are able to cover long distances, the latter move slowly and are in no hurry.

Learning to determine volatility

Let's go to trading terminal Metatrader and open the chart of any currency pair. I'll take EUR/CHF - the euro exchange rate expressed in Swiss francs.

To calculate volatility, first select the desired time interval. Let's say we want to collect data for the daily timeframe. The graph looks like this.

Let's move on to the calculations. There are two ways - simple and complex. Let's look at each one.

A complex way to calculate volatility

Each candle on the D1 timeframe chart reflects price fluctuations throughout the day. From the article, you remember that the Open and Close prices of a candle are the prices at the beginning and end of the trading day, High and Low are the maximum and minimum price values.

We need exactly High and Low. The distance between the stops that the financial instrument made does not matter, what is important is its reserve of strength - how much in total it strayed. Therefore, we measure the distances between the maximum and minimum price values.

This is done either by eye using a crosshair, or by precise calculations.

To use the crosshair, click either CTRL + F or click on the mouse roller. Enlarge the graph, measure the distance from one shadow to another.

1,902 minipips or 190.2 pips. The first value is based on the fifth decimal place, the second value is based on the fourth. It makes no difference which one to use. We write down the resulting value.

Now the method of accurate calculations. Move the cursor to the candle so that the data is displayed. Subtract the Low value from the High value.

1.14481 - 1.12600 = 0.01881. Removing all decimal places, we get 1,881 minipips - this is the distance the EUR/CHF financial instrument passed on August 9, 2017. With the crosshairs, we got a value of 1902 - 11 minipips more - not critical.

If you don’t know how to get the data we used from candles, read either the above-mentioned article or watch the video.

We measure the second candle with a crosshair – 618 minipips.

The third – 589.

Let's assume we are interested in 3-day volatility. We add up all the resulting values: 1,881 + 618 + 589 = 3,088 minipips. We find the arithmetic mean - divide the amount by 3: 3,088/3 = 1029, (3) minipips - we get the current volatility.

How to track its changes? Keep a notebook and indicate new price values ​​and averages in it every day.

At first your entry will look like this.

In a day you will enter new data. The candle on the chart is still forming, the day has not ended, but let’s take its values ​​as an example. Distance traveled – 244 points.

We subtract 618 from the last sum, because this day is already eliminated, we are not interested in it. It turns out 2,470. We add the path traveled by the price today, that is, 244 points. Total – 2,714. Divide by 3, we get 904.7.

How many days to take into account when calculating current volatility depends on your trading strategy; traders’ approaches in this regard differ.

In the future we will get acquainted with indicator methods of analysis; there is no panacea there either. The Moving Average indicator will produce different values ​​depending on the number of days analyzed.

That's for 14 days.

Here's for 140.

The larger trends we want to catch, the more days we analyze.

What period should you use when calculating volatility? Let's look at the simple method of counting that was taught to me, and then answer this question.

A simple way to calculate volatility

Open the hourly chart of the selected financial instrument. Right-click “Properties”, go to “General”, check the box next to “Show period separators”.

Separators now appear on the chart. If we measure the distance between them, we get the mysterious number 24.

The first value displayed by the crosshairs is the number of candles in the measured interval. 24 candles, each reflecting fluctuations for 1 hour. This means that between periods fit a day - one Forex trading day. The foreign exchange market trades around the clock.

Measuring the distance between the High and Low of each candle on the daily time frame is tedious. It is easier to connect the maximum and minimum price values ​​within one period with a crosshair.

Ultra-precise calculations are not needed, we measure by eye. In the screenshot above, 1,886 points were received. Expand the terminal to full screen and measure the volatility of all periods that will fit completely, I fit 13 - 14 periods. I learned to trade using historical levels; according to my strategy, volatility data was needed to correctly apply them; 13 - 14 days is enough.

That's it, we've looked at this issue. If something is unclear, write in the comments, I’ll explain. We will analyze the levels in graphical analysis.

Which currency pairs to trade on Forex

Novice traders usually look for signals to enter the market based on technical analytics. Therefore, for a successful start in trading, it is advisable to choose the most technical currency pairs.

These include primarily EUR/USD. The famous Eurodollar is the most liquid and, perhaps, easily predictable Forex instrument.

The EUR/USD chart is perfect for implementing any trading strategy. Trend movements with rare “surprises” can be easily predicted by both indicator and technical analytical methods. Small spread – a great opportunity do scalping.

The Eurodollar is also suitable for news trading, because its rate is affected by events in several EU countries.

Once you are comfortable with EUR/USD, take a look at AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Australian and New Zealand dollars belong to low volatility financial instruments, their prices do not make sharp jumps like currency charts paired with the pound.

If you want to join long-term trends, the Australian and New Zealander are just useful: it is not dangerous to leave them open positions on weekend. However, you still can’t forget about gaps.

Start mastering Forex with the three above-mentioned currency pairs, then get acquainted with other instruments. Don't get into exotics until you've trained in major pairs.

In this article we learned how to configure the display of quotes. The terminal allows you to view several pairs simultaneously and make a large “universal” chart. Read it, it will be useful.

There you will also learn how to add new currency pairs to the workspace. But I don't think you have a problem with that.

Before you start trading a new instrument, collect information about it, find out about the “specifics” of each currency.

Please also take into account the fact that information tends to become outdated. USD/CHF is still called a highly technical instrument on some sites, but its technicality fell into oblivion on January 15, 2015.

On this day, the Swiss National Bank refused to hold the franc exchange rate and released the beast.

Nowadays, the Swiss currency is not among the elite of well-forecast ones.

At the beginning of the article we talked about mirror currency pairs. The strong depreciation of the Australian dollar in the AUD/CHF pair is precisely caused by the situation described.

Conclusion

Dear beginners and professional traders, we have finished the conversation about currency pairs and reviewed the most suitable tools for starting Forex trading. Ask your questions in the comments - I will definitely answer.

Are you interested in the patterns of movement of individual currency pairs? If yes, I will prepare for you separate descriptions of EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and other instruments.

Newbie traders often wonder: which currency pair is best to trade? Much depends on the trading strategy, on the time of trading (morning, evening or afternoon), but the most important advice, perhaps, is this: choose the most predictable currency pairs - it will be easiest for you to work with them. We present to you the top 5 Forex currency pairs, the behavior of which will not be difficult to predict even for a beginner.

EUR/GBP

This pair behaves quite predictably: there are clear trends in it, and when a key support or resistance level is broken, the trend in most cases reverses, and you can safely work in the direction of the new trend. Why is this pair considered easy? Because both the pound sterling and the euro are European currencies that are influenced by the same factors. News regarding the EU economy often affects the EUR and GBP rates simultaneously. All classical models of graphical analysis can be applied to this pair; indicators also generate good signals (there are very few false ones).

USD/CHF

It may not be the most predictable currency pair, but over the past few years its behavior has changed for the better for traders. The fact is that National Bank Switzerland initially carried out currency interventions to regulate the exchange rate of the franc, but then abandoned this policy due to its futility. As a result, the movements of the dollar/franc pair have become more even and understandable; both sideways and channel breakouts are clearly visible on the chart.

AUD/USD

The Australian economy is quite isolated, and as a rule, when it strengthens, this has a positive effect on the Aussie exchange rate. That is why this pair reacts well to fundamental data, and its behavior can be predicted by working with economic calendar. Professional traders advise using the Australian/American pair for medium- and long-term trading, since a chart with a large time frame is best analyzed. Please also note that this pair is most active early in the morning, during the Pacific session: during this period quite strong movements can occur, and the rest of the time the pair behaves very calmly, with flats often occurring.

GBP/USD

This pair is also very interesting for trading, and this is explained by the fact that strong price movements are often observed for it. If you plan to trade the pound/dollar pair, then choose trend strategies, and stop loss and take profit should be placed quite far from the opening price of the transaction. It is best to trade this pair inside the channel.

EUR/USD

The most popular and liquid currency pair completes the list. She only placed fifth in the rankings due to the fact that over the past year her behavior has become less predictable than usual. Perhaps such changes were associated with political events in the United States (presidential elections, trade wars and the conflict with the DPRK). However, this pair is attractive because it lends itself quite well to both fundamental and technical analysis. This pair is equally suitable for medium-term and short term trading, it is also very popular among scalpers.

But pairs with the Japanese yen, which is also one of the world's major currencies, are considered difficult to trade. The reason is that the yen is not just a currency, but a so-called safe-haven asset - an investment asset into which large market participants transfer their capital in the event of increased market instability. In addition, the JPY rate is affected by economic news not only from Japan, but also from the entire Asian region.

One of the most popular underlying assets both in the Forex market and in trading binary options, currency pairs are considered. Currency pairs have become so widespread due to the relative predictability of their price movements. In addition, they are traded on the market around the clock (24 hours a day, 5 days a week), available on any trading platforms and live charts, it is easy to monitor changes in fundamental indicators and the release of economic news. In general, a currency pair is the most common underlying asset.

Like all underlying assets, currency pairs have their own volatility indicators. And in this light, it is extremely important for a binary options or Forex trader to know which currency pair is considered the most flat (calm) and which is the most volatile. In this article we will highlight the most flat currency pairs.

Calm currency pairs are widely used in trading due to automatic advisors and robots. It is on flat currency pairs that the robot or trading advisor shows the most stable results.

In binary options trading, flat trading on currency pairs is used using the “Range” option. When there is a flat on the chart, the trader just needs to indicate the option term and buy the “Within Border” option. And if there is really calm movement on the chart, then the price is unlikely to go beyond the range, and the trader, in this case, will make a profit.

However, it is quite difficult to single out any specific flat currency pairs. This is due to the fact that the conditions financial market are constantly changing. Until recently, a highly volatile currency pair can turn into a calm asset, and vice versa. It is enough to remember the change credit rate National Swiss bank. Before this, the currency pair USDCHF (American dollar to Swiss franc) was considered calm. But after the announcement of the loan rate, everything changed:

However, the calmest currency pairs are considered to be assets that are close in the direction of price movement. They are called cross courses. USDCHF was like that - it was close in movement to EURUSD (euro to US dollar). Currently, such cross rates are EURGBP (euro to British pound), AUDNZD (Australian dollar to New Zealand dollar), EURCAD (Euro to Canadian dollar).

But, in my opinion, it is important to know not which currency pair is the most flat, but when a certain asset will be the calmest. Therefore, I recommend reading the article The best time to trade binary options. Only after working out a certain trading time, building trading strategy and having chosen his favorite assets (he will understand which currency pair is the most predictable for him), the trader will be able to consistently earn money from binary options.

Trading internationally foreign exchange market is not only analysis and money management. It is also the ability to wisely choose an asset in such a way as to extract maximum benefit from its fluctuations.

When thinking about how to make money from trading, many novice currency speculators strive to find the most volatile instruments, believing that since the pair shows serious fluctuations, it means they can make a good income here.

On the one hand, this is logical, since with large fluctuations there is a chance to take a profit even on a small time frame. On the other side, This approach has its drawbacks, since very volatile pairs are extremely unstable.

Therefore, many Forex traders are looking for calm currency pairs. It is important to understand here that such assets can have a long trend line, on which it is easy for a speculator to earn a good profit.

Finding calm currency pairs

Very often, the choice of beginners falls on such assets as the euro-dollar or pound-dollar. In principle, there is a certain logic here. The euro is on everyone's lips. And the pound is much closer to speculators from the CIS than, for example, the Australian or New Zealand dollars. At least that's what it seems like.

But how to make money in situations where average daily fluctuations can reach 150-200 points? To do this you need to try very hard. And the result will not always be positive. Abundance important news from the eurozone and the UK can make fluctuations almost unpredictable.

In such a situation, you can move on to long-term trading. But this method is used only by a small number of traders. Most people prefer to work during one day.

Respectively, calm currency pairs are the only solution, which allows you to earn more or less stable income. But how to find such assets? How can you generally determine which couple can be considered calm and which not?

To do this, let's define some characteristics. First of all, you can take as a basis a certain period of time, say, a month or several, and see what the average daily fluctuations in the asset were.

The higher this indicator, the more unstable the instrument is. The calmest currency pair on Forex is characterized by weak fluctuations. That is, the average daily amplitude will be the smallest. But, as we have already noted, this will not necessarily be the worst tool for trading. After all, such couples have monthly trends. Accordingly, you can make good money on them.

More often the calmest Forex currency pair is found among the so-called crosses, that is, assets without participation American dollar. The fact is that it is dollar news that has a very serious impact on fluctuations. Therefore, if they are excluded, the volatility of Forex currency pairs may be lower.

The calmest currency pair on Forex is AUD/NZD. Very often you can observe fairly long-term trends in this asset. The reason is simple - both currencies react almost identically to the same data. Accordingly, there are not many reasons for a reversal.

The calmest currency pair is also AUD/DKK. She is also exotic. Trade turnover between Australia and Denmark cannot be called serious. Accordingly, liquidity here is small. Trends that are established for this currency pair can last for weeks.

However, there are also disadvantages. The fact is that the Forex spread on this asset will also be quite large. It can reach 30 points. Therefore, trading the pair is not entirely profitable and convenient.

Calm Forex currency pairs can also be found among the major pairs known to us. After all, volatility depends not only on the currencies themselves, but also on the timing of trading. For example, EUR/USD may not experience high volatility during the Asian session. True, you are unlikely to find trend movements at this time for this asset.

Another important point - calm Forex currency pairs can be found on days when there is no important news. Again, you shouldn’t count on trends. But there will not be significant volatility in the market at such moments.

To summarize, we note that quiet Forex currency pairs are chosen by those who want to earn money with a greater guarantee. Of course, risks may await here too. But for insurance, you can use various tools for hedging and limiting risks.