The last few years can hardly be called simple for the citizens of the Russian Federation: the constant rise in food prices, tariff increases, the abolition of several social programs. But, the government is telling us not to despair, and the data confirms that the hardest times are behind us today.

What inflation will be in 2018, and what official forecast is prepared by the Ministry of Finance, we will find out in the article.

What to expect the country next year

Of course, all the inhabitants of the country are very worried about what to expect in Russia in 2018, how the economic situation will change, and will life really become easier? The Ministry of Economic Development really pleases with its forecasts. According to independent experts, the 2018 inflation index will drop significantly. It is expected to fall to 4%, which will significantly affect federal budget for 2018.

Such a high expected inflation rate in Russia has caused a lot of controversy, and not all experts agree with it, and in some points they are right. After all, if you look at the cost of food, their predicted cost differs from the real one by 12%.

The planned inflation for 2018 is calculated based on a baseline plan that has been in place for several years. It is based on the cost of oil and the value of the dollar. The given inflation rate for 2018 will be relevant in the Russian Federation only if nothing changes.

But, no one excludes a positive turn, in which the expected price of oil will begin to increase, which means that the country's welfare will improve, the national currency will strengthen its position. Of course, well-known experts do not want to talk about such lofty goals, because it is almost impossible to plan such a thing.

In addition, when calculating the inflation rate in Russia in 2018, the sanctions imposed against our country were also taken into account. But, most likely, some of them will be removed, which will positively affect the official results.

Why is it important to know the inflation rate?

Most citizens of the country, although they are interested in the level of inflation in Russia, and the economy as a whole, do not fully understand what a big role is assigned to it:

• The level of social payments to the population depends on how much inflation in 2018 will be percent. Based on the percentage of inflation, economists perform all the necessary calculations, which are then applied to the whole of Russia.
• Based on the inflation rate for 2018, we can say how well the economy is doing.
• If inflation is low, then, over time, the cost of oil will begin to rise. At the same time, taxes from its sale go directly to the treasury, this money will cover the deficit, the inflation rate will decrease significantly.
• If inflation in Russia decreases, then the well-being of its citizens will begin to grow, therefore, life will be better.

According to Rosstat, the projected price for a barrel of oil next year will reach $75, which, compared to the current price, will be an excellent option.

Such revenues to the budget will make it possible to quickly reach the planned level of income, and will make the life of ordinary citizens much easier.

What the government says

According to the President, the country is already out of economic crisis that I encountered. For supporting financial situation residents of the country, where possible wage indexation was carried out.

Today, according to the Ministry of Finance, next year the projected inflation rate will be at the level of 4%, this is the expected and forecast level of the coefficient. This means that the estimated amount of various social payments will also increase by 4%. So far, the government cannot significantly raise the salaries of its citizens, but the real concern for everyone is visible.

But, according to the Ministry of Finance, there may be an increase in inflation in 2018, this phenomenon is called creeping. They bring their positive points:

• Most citizens, out of habit, keep the accumulated money at home, hiding it in a secluded place. During the growth of inflation, they begin to fear the depreciation of savings, and rent their capital to the bank. Thus, there is an active stimulation of the banking sector, and a large turnover of currency.
• Residents who have a loan try not to wait until the planned payment arrives, but to close the debt as quickly as possible in order to take a new purchase at the very moment when it became cheaper.

Through the efforts of the country's government, inflation in Russia amounted to 5.6% in 2017, and will drop to 4% next year, which undoubtedly indicates a gradual stabilization of the state of the economy in the country and an improvement in its well-being in general.

Based on such optimistic forecasts, we can confidently say that the crisis has subsided, and, very soon, life will become much easier for all of us.

It is extremely difficult to predict inflation today, because everything economic indicators Today they are highly unstable and constantly changing. However, those what will be the inflation forecast for 2018, nevertheless, a huge number of people are interested, because it is on the basis of this information that it can be built, which means that let the data be approximate, you need to pay attention to them.

Inflation is a variable economic value that is influenced by several factors at once. The most important of them is considered throughout the world (meaning world indicators, on the basis of which a forecast is made for the development of the world economic system). Foreign economic relations between states (specifically, in Russia today there is a problem with interstate relations due to the introduction of sanctions), as well as a large number of internal factors (the presence or absence of budget deficit, economic growth, state of the economy).

TO additional factors, which affect the rate of inflation, and on which, accordingly, depends inflation forecast in Russia in 2018, include the development of the banking sector, on which the state of the whole country largely depends. Modern financial institutions today they are rapidly losing their own stability and becoming bankrupt, which does not contribute to normalization, so the authorities should solve the problem of financing banks, because otherwise they will not have to count on a decrease in inflation in the country.

What are the experts talking about?

Experts are carefully discussing the issue of inflation changes in the near future, and they insist that this indicator will decrease annually, and in 2018 it should reach a level of 3 or 4%. Today, such a figure does not seem quite realistic, because until recently inflation reached double digits, and today it will fall to a minimum, but this is actually the case, so believe official inflation forecast for 2018 is certainly worth it.

In general, experts from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development prefer to think positively, which gives reason to think that the situation in the country as a whole is starting to improve a little. However, there are also people who believe that with such positive figures, the authorities are trying to divert the attention of Russians from any other economic problems, for example, from or instability foreign exchange market which, it must be said, they succeed with success.

True, one cannot ignore the fact that the predicted inflation rate (4%) from the Ministry of Economic Development coincides with that predicted by independent analysts. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund expects a continuation or a new round of the crisis, which may cause an increase in inflation rates, and all expert opinions may turn out to be true. There is, of course, the possibility of error, because the leading economic organizations and independent analysts have repeatedly made mistakes with forecasts, but it is minimal, although, of course, one should not forget about it.

Information on "dessert"

The authorities strongly recommend that the population set their thoughts on a positive wave, because this is the only way to completely change yourself and the world around you. Naturally, you should not relax too much, because adversity can expect a person literally at every turn, yes, and if you believe the information from the forecasts, then the wages of the Russians will not increase too much. But the authorities are doing everything in their power to normalize the standard of living in the country, so no one should have any reason to worry.

Looking through inflation forecast chart for 2018 for Russia It is impossible not to notice that it will gradually decrease, and given that it is on the basis of this indicator that the indexation coefficient is calculated, the authorities decided to fix it at the same level. Inflation will be approximately 4% and indexation will be carried out exactly at this percentage, as it became known today. Means level wages and social benefits will increase exactly by 4%, and let it be a little, but a small increase is better than none at all (in accordance with this rule, Russians have been living for the past few years).

In conclusion, it must be said that during the year the inflation rate may grow slightly (it is called creeping), and this phenomenon has certain positive features. Which? When inflation rises a little, people who have taken out a loan are afraid to quickly pay it off and take it again, expecting that inflationary changes will make it easier to pay off debts (this stimulates the banking sector). Another positive change is that Russians who keep their savings "under the pillow" prefer to put them in a bank to protect them from depreciation, and this, in turn, also improves the performance of the country's banking sector. In general, in any situation there are advantages, the main thing is to learn to notice them.

The dynamics of growth in prices for food, consumer goods, transport, real estate, and, accordingly, a wide range of areas in the service sector is reflected in the indicators purchasing power Russians. The ratio of income and expenditure is changing not in favor of the majority of citizens: inflationary processes, as one of the signs of the state of the federal economy, force a number of consumer intentions to be adjusted. In this regard, forecasts of impairment indicators national currency very relevant for next year. What to expect from the inflationary “pendulum” in 2018? Let's consider the main macroeconomic forecasts.

What factors will affect the inflation rate in Russia in 2018

Decline in purchasing power due to rising prices and depreciation monetary unit occurs for a number of external and internal reasons that affect the national financial system. Among the main factors that determine behavior in the Russian economy, analysts name:

change in export indicators of the leading commodities - oil and gas;

the presence of a federal deficit;

foreign policy circumstances and economic action;

crisis phenomena in the banking sector, as well as the dynamics of demand for loans;

increase budget spending for social payments;

falling levels of production in a number of industrial sectors;

the formation of a monopoly in a number of industrial areas, in connection with which big business becomes the main price-forming link in the market of this segment of goods.

It should be noted that the above parameters of influence mostly relate to the negative dynamics of inflationary indicators observed in the Russian economy over the past 4 years. At the same time, in the circles of the leading specialized financial departments of the country, they say that already at the end of 2017, prerequisites for the possibility of a slowdown in inflation were noticed. Is it so?

Read also: Inflation rate in Russia by years (1991-2017): official data of Rosstat

What are the forecasts of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance

According to official reports from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (analysts of these departments often present the same versions of economic events in the future), in 2018 the inflation rate should not exceed 4%.

Despite the fact that a number of independent experts called this figure “too optimistic,” officials assure that the prerequisites for achieving it are quite logical: back in 2016, the Russian government managed to reduce inflation from the 10% inflation rate planned at the beginning of the year to a figure of 5.4%. And compared to 2015, this more than two-fold decrease in inflation over the year can be considered a record one (recall that in the crisis year of 2015, the depreciation of the national currency was 12.9%).

Both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are convinced that in 2018 government economists will find leverage to slow down the rate of inflation to 4% by the end of the calendar year. This task must be completed, first of all, in connection with the need to reduce interest rates on lending, as well as in order to enhance investment activity small business - declared in the federal economic terms shares for the coming years.

In fairness, we note that the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are not shared by all relevant bodies. For example, analysts of the Ministry economic development The Russian Federation reports that the Russian economy can reach a record 4% inflation rate in the best scenarios no earlier than in 2020. Possible, at the same time, optimistic figures that can be achieved in 2018 are inflation fluctuations at the level of 4.5-4.9%.

Moreover, according to the arguments of officials of the Ministry of Economic Development, even with the expected exchange rate of the ruble k at the level of 64/1, the welfare of the population will not exceed the growth rate of 3%, that is, it will still not reach the level of inflation. At the same time, officials assure that a critical situation with the depreciation of the ruble will definitely not happen.

Which categories of citizens can count on income indexation

From January 1, 2018, a number of categories of Russians expect wage indexation by 3-6%, depending on the industry, region of residence of the specialist, length of service, category and other factors. Which public sector employees will be affected by indexation? We are talking about specialists in the following industries, namely:

employees of educational and preschool state institutions;

medical workers;

specialists of customs and migration services;

employees tax authorities and treasury;

employees of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies;

government officials;

cultural workers.

It is expected that the most tangible increase in the income level of teachers and doctors, as well as professionals involved in professional activity in the regions of the Far North.

In turn, it is known for sure that in February 2018, a number of social benefits will be indexed by 3.2%. The category of citizens who can count on receiving an index increase includes.

Probably, not a single word causes such horror among the inhabitants of the post-Soviet space as the term "inflation". Everyone who today is 30 or more years old remembers how quickly savings can depreciate and confidence in a secure future can sink into oblivion. After the calm start of the 2000s, when life began to improve, and the rubles were finally in a stable position in relation to, inflationary processes again interfered in the life of Russians.

In the past few years, the layman has constantly noted an increase in prices for food, travel, clothing and housing and communal services, as well as a reduction. Savings depreciate, and real income does not keep up with the current expenditure of funds that are needed for a full life. It is especially difficult for the least protected segments of the population - pensioners, students, pregnant women, large families, orphans and the disabled, and so they could not boast of full-fledged support from the state.

If inflation is not stopped, many Russians will fall below the poverty line

And with the intensification of inflationary processes, they ended up “below the poverty line”. Of course, the crisis Russian economy cannot be compared with the period that people who lived during the collapse of the socialist empire found. However, citizens still prefer to keep their finger on the pulse of events and monitor forecasts from experts in the field of macroeconomics. Let's see what inflation forecasts experts give out for 2018.

Forecast from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

As usual, the experts representing the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation "blow the same tune", presenting the same macroeconomic forecasts to the Russians. Analysts of these departments say that in 2018, government economists will be able to finally curb inflationary manifestations, so that the year will end with a depreciation of money no higher than 4%.

The task of curbing inflation is considered a priority by these departments, because without this it is impossible to reduce interest rates and ensure an increase in the domestic demand of households and the investment activity of entrepreneurs. Recall that these tasks are clearly spelled out in the financial plans of the national level for 2017-2019.

If we focus on the data published by government statistical departments, then this level of inflation can be safely considered quite achievable. According to official reports, already in 2016 the government was able to bring the level of depreciation of money to a value of 5.4% against the planned 10% per year. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance have already called this indicator a record one, because back in 2015 inflation was recorded at 12.9%. Literally in a year, it was possible to reduce it by more than two times.

In 2017, the Central Bank is going to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy, so that 4% inflation in 2018 looks like a completely logical and natural consequence of the implementation economic programs. The optimism of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance supports. He said that in recent years the Russian economy has begun to develop at an unprecedented pace, and the decline in inflation rates is even faster than was calculated in the forecasts of previous years.

Calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development

It is worth noting that not all government departments support the optimism of the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank RF. The Ministry of Economic Development does not yet expect inflation in the form of 4% per year. Moreover, in their forecasts, representatives of this department say that even under optimal conditions, inflation of 4% will not be achieved in 2019 either. The maximum that the government should expect is 4.1% in 2 years. In 2017 and 2018, they predict ruble depreciation at 4.9% and 4.4%, respectively.

With “optimistic” ruble quotations of 64.5-65.5 units per 1 US dollar, the real income of the population will grow by no more than 3% per year, that is, it will lag behind inflationary influences. Therefore, the Ministry of Economic Development believes that the income received by the Russians will not have a significant impact on the country's economy, however, a collapse following the example of 2015 should not be expected. Well, in a pessimistic forecast it is said that in 2017 wage growth will be recorded at the level of 0.6% per year.

Real inflation figures and those announced by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rarely coincide

It is quite possible that the situation of the period of the 1990s will repeat itself, when statistical reports spoke of normal incomes of the population even in the depressed regions of the country, but in reality they were provided only pension payments and social benefits. That is - the next eating up of the budget. However, now, as you know, the almost completely exhausted Reserve Fund will not make it possible to easily cover the needs of the population, which is not able to earn extra money on its own.

In principle, this thesis is confirmed by the Ministry of Economic Development, whose experts recommend that the government fulfill social obligations to a minimum. For example, for public sector employees, with the exception of teachers and health workers, it is proposed to plan a complete moratorium on wage indexation in the period 2017-2019.

United Nations Department of Economic Affairs Forecasts

They are somewhat less optimistic about the Russian future. According to the calculations of specialists from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, the real indicators of inflationary processes in Russia in 2015 and 2016 reached 15.9% and 10.5%, respectively.

In the context of continued sanctions restrictions and unstable oil prices, it is not yet possible to count on a quick recovery of pre-crisis growth rates in the future. The maximum that should be expected from 2018 is to overcome the zero mark of GDP growth rates and some decrease in inflation, but no more than to the level of 7.1%.

It cannot be said that such an improvement will be achieved solely by government measures. According to statements by many foreign agencies, the rapid rate of decline in inflation indicators only indicates that the Russian economy has entered a phase of stagnation, and consumer demand is characterized by very low values ​​due to the freezing of wages and many types of social benefits.

Assessments by independent experts

A significant improvement in published indicators, according to independent experts, can also be explained by the new calculation methodology that Rosstat began to use. Thus, according to analyst Denis Davydov, representing Nordea Bank, the data provided by Rosstat does not yet add clarity. The bank is in no hurry to adjust internal forecasts, focusing on an inflation rate of 4.6% by the beginning of 2018.

Analysts at the Russian rating agency ACRA say that lower inflation, which the central bankers are fixated on, could lead to reduced real wage flexibility and, as a result, contribute to growth natural unemployment. According to ACRA calculations, the real income of Russians will continue to fall in the next few years. In 2017, it will decrease by 1.1%, in 2018 - by 0.8%, and only by 2020 can we expect an increase of 1%.

Even with a decrease in inflation, the income of citizens of the Russian Federation will continue to fall

Separately, it is worth noting the discrepancy between the information published by Rosstat and representatives of the private holding Romir, whose analysts use a methodology that reflects real price changes for various groups of goods and services. At the beginning of 2017, Romir's calculations speak of an inflation of 3.2%. The reason for this was the rise in prices for food (7%) and alcoholic beverages, the prices of which increased by 12%. At the same time, over the same period of time, Rosstat provides information that inflation increased by only 0.6%.

Possible causes of inflation in the Russian Federation

Experts say that the ruble exchange rate and low demand from the population put pressure on inflation indicators, since this macroeconomic indicator can decline so sharply only under the influence of two factors - global inflation or lack of consumer demand. However, as the analysis of the world economy shows, inflationary processes in global terms do not show such a fall as the figures announced in Russia.

The current deflationary processes may be caused by the artificial influence of the Central Bank or have a short-term seasonal nature. In addition, artificially low inflation is an excellent reason to index less, salaries, scholarships and all types of social benefits. At the same time, analyzing Russian consumer demand, experts focus on the fact that today average citizens spend about 1/3 of their budget on food.

For comparison, in Europe this indicator fits into 15% of family income. In Luxembourg it accounts for 8.6% of all spending, the Netherlands - 10%, Great Britain - 11%, in Denmark, Norway and Austria - 11.9%. In the Russian Federation, Dagestan is considered the leader in spending on food purchases, where residents spend up to 58.7% of the budget on food, Crimea - 48.5%, Ingushetia - 44.7% and Buryatia - 43.7%. The minimum is spent on food in the Moscow region - about 26% of the total family budget.

Russians spend 30% of their budget on food, and another 20% on housing and communal services!

In 2016 alone, the consumer activity of Russian residents fell by 5%, and the increase in food consumption declared by Rosstat affected only the cheapest groups of goods, which include carrots, onions, potatoes and cabbage. Spending on meat fell from 30.7% to 18.6% of the budget for food, and on dairy - from 22.3% to 13.8%. Experts say that this fact indicates that the "personal" inflation of Russians is higher than the "average temperature in the hospital", calculated by specialists from Rosstat.