Causes and types of unemployment. Natural rate of unemployment

Natural rate of unemployment

The natural rate of unemployment (u*) is the level at which full-employment of the labor force is ensured, i.e. the most effective and rational use of it. This means that all people who want to work find work. The natural rate of unemployment is therefore called the full-employment rate of unemployment, and the output corresponding to the natural rate of unemployment is called the natural output. Since full employment of the labor force means that there is only frictional and structural unemployment in the economy, the natural rate of unemployment can be calculated as the sum of frictional and structural unemployment rates:

U * = u Friction + u Struct = (U Friction +U Struct)/L * 100%.

The modern name for this indicator is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment - NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). Consider the graph of economic growth and the economic cycle.

Each point of the curve depicting economic growth (Fig. 1), i.e. each point on the trend corresponds to the value of potential GDP or the state of full employment of resources (points B and C). And each point on the sinusoid representing the economic cycle corresponds to the value of actual GDP (points A and D).

If the actual volume of output exceeds the potential (point A), i.e. the actual unemployment rate is below the natural rate, this means that aggregate demand exceeds aggregate output. This is an over-employment situation. When moving from point B to point A, the price level rises, i.e. acceleration of inflation. Thus, when the economy is at the level of potential output (full employment), which corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment, inflation does not accelerate.

The natural rate of unemployment changes over time. So, in the early 60s, it was 4% of the workforce, and now 6% - 7%. The reason for the increase in the natural rate of unemployment is the increase in the duration of the search for work (i.e. the length of time when people are unemployed), which may be due to:

an increase in the amount of unemployment benefits;
an increase in the length of time for the payment of unemployment benefits;
an increase in the share of women in the labor force;
increasing the share of young people in the labor market.

The first two factors make it possible to search for a job over a longer period of time. The last two factors, which signify a change in the age and sex structure of the labor force, increase the number of people who first appeared on the labor market and are looking for work (i.e., an increase in the number of unemployed), increase competition in the labor market and lengthen the job search period.

To calculate the natural rate of unemployment, a dynamic model of a sustainable unemployment rate (“labor force dynamics model”), proposed by M. Friedman, can be used, who proceeded from the fact that the main cause of unemployment is the imperfection of information. Some of the employed lose their jobs, becoming unemployed, and some of the unemployed find jobs and become employed. These displacements (flows) are shown in Fig. 2.

Rice. 2. Labor force dynamics model

At steady state, the number of employed who lose their jobs and become unemployed is equal to the number of unemployed who find work and become employed. If we denote the share of the employed who lost their jobs out of the total number of employed by the letter s, and the share of the unemployed who found work out of the total number of the unemployed, by the letter f, then in a steady state: s*E = f*U.

Since E = L - U then s*(L-U) = f*U or s*L - s*U = f*U.

Hence f*U + s*U = s*L or U*(s+f) = s*L. Divide both parts by L, we get: U/L*(s+f) = s.

Since U / L is an indicator of the unemployment rate, i.e. u, then from here: u = s/(s+f).

Since the premise of the model is the idea that the cause of unemployment is the imperfection of information, the resulting value of the unemployment rate (u) can be considered an indicator of the natural rate of unemployment (u*). So, if the average period of a person being among the employed is 80 months (this means that 1/80 of the employed lose their jobs every month, i.e. s \u003d 1/80), and the average period of being a person among the unemployed is 5 months (hence, monthly in the economy, 1/5 or 20% of the unemployed find a job, i.e. f = 0.2), then the sustainable unemployment rate will be u = s / (s + f) = 0.0125 / 0.2125 = 0.0588 or approximately 5.9%.

Actual unemployment may exceed its natural rate. This happens during a downturn (recession) in the economy. Unemployment caused by a recession is cyclical unemployment. On the business cycle diagram (Fig. 1), this situation is represented by point D, where actual GDP is less than potential. This means that there is an underemployment of resources in the economy, i.e. the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural one. In modern conditions, the existence of cyclical unemployment is associated both with the insufficiency of total spending in the economy, i.e. a reduction in aggregate demand and a reduction in aggregate supply.

The actual unemployment rate is calculated as a percentage of the total number of unemployed to the total labor force, or as the sum of unemployment rates of all types (frictional, structural and cyclical): . Since the sum of frictional, structural and involuntary unemployment levels is equal to the natural unemployment rate, the actual unemployment rate is equal to the sum of the natural unemployment rate and the cyclical unemployment rate: u actual = u* + u cycle.

The value of the actual unemployment rate can be either more (during a recession) or less (during a boom) than the natural rate of unemployment. Thus, during a recession, resources are underemployed, so the cyclical unemployment rate is positive, and during a boom, resources are overemployed, so the cyclical unemployment rate is negative.

Voluntary and involuntary unemployment

The interpretation of the nature of unemployment in different macroeconomic models is different. Thus, representatives of the classical school believed that the reason for the existence of unemployment is the unwillingness (refusal) of workers to work for the wage rate offered to them. And since the workers doom themselves to an unemployed state, unemployment in the classical model is voluntary. In modern conditions, their followers - supporters of the neoclassical direction - believe that voluntary unemployment exists, and for the same reason, and include it in frictional unemployment, and therefore in the natural rate of unemployment, understanding by the natural rate of unemployment such a level at which equilibrium is ensured in the labor market (the demand for labor is equal to the supply of labor), i.e. people who want to work for the equilibrium real wage rate find work sooner or later, and this is a natural process for the functioning of any economy.

However, unlike their predecessors, the representatives of the neoclassical school recognize that some of the unemployment is involuntary, calling it waiting unemployment. The cause of unemployment waiting is the disequilibrium in the labor market associated with the establishment of the real wage rate at a level above the equilibrium market level (at which the demand for labor is equal to the supply of labor).

At the wage rate (W/P) 0 (Fig. 3), the labor market is in equilibrium at the level of full employment of the labor force (Lf). However, if the wage rate is set at (W/P) 1, then the supply of labor L1 will exceed the demand for labor, and only the number of workers equal to L1 will be hired. The difference between L1 and L2 will be waiting unemployment, which can disappear only when the wage rate is again equal to the equilibrium (W/P) 0 .

The reasons for unemployment waiting and "sticking" of the wage rate above the equilibrium level (wage rigidity) are:

Trade union activities and the signing of collective agreements that stipulate a wage rate below which employers are not allowed to hire workers. A trade union is an association of workers that is involved in collective agreements with employers (firms) regarding wages and working conditions. If the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement, the union may go on strike and stop providing labor services to the firm. Due to the threat of a strike, unionized workers earn 10-20% more than non-unionized workers. The union provides benefits to insiders (members) at the expense of outsiders (non-members). When a union pushes for higher wages that rise above the equilibrium wage, the result is unemployment among both insiders and especially among outsiders.
Legislative establishment by the state of the minimum wage rate, which serves as the lower limit of the rate when hiring. Since the equilibrium wage for most workers exceeds the minimum rate, this circumstance affects the unemployment rate only either among low-skilled workers or among adolescents with no experience and labor skills.
Widespread use of incentive (or efficient) wage theory. The point is that employers themselves are not interested in lowering the wage rate and may deliberately keep wages above the equilibrium in order to retain their best and most productive workers. Efficient wages are analogous to the minimum wage law and to unionization, since in all three cases unemployment is the result of the wage rate being set above the market equilibrium. However, the difference between efficient wages is that they are voluntarily paid by firms.

There are 4 reasons why firms may find it efficient to pay higher than equilibrium wages.

Worker layoffs (labor turnover) can be reduced by paying them higher wages because workers will find it difficult to find alternative jobs at a higher rate. Firms benefit from reducing layoffs because there are costs associated with hiring and training new workers and because new workers do not have the necessary experience, knowledge and skills and are much less productive than experienced workers.
The productivity (zeal) of workers can be increased by higher wages. Since the diligence of workers is not easy to control, workers may shy away from conscientious performance of their duties. This phenomenon is called moral hazard or the risk of dishonest (opportunistic) behavior and demonstrates the problem of asymmetric information. Workers (agents) know their own diligence and quality, but firms (principals) do not. The payment of low wages to workers can lead to the fact that workers will apply little diligence, treat their work dishonestly. Once caught and fired, workers at the equilibrium wage rate can easily find another job at the same rate. Higher wages can make workers stick to their jobs and work harder.
The quality of workers (labor force) can be improved by paying them higher wages. Firms cannot accurately measure the quality of workers who apply for hire. Each worker imagines the minimum amount for which he agrees to work (this value is called the reservation rate). The higher the quality (qualification) of workers, the higher this amount. If the firm sets a low wage rate, then this will lead to the fact that skilled workers will not apply to such a firm to be hired, since their reservation rate, in their opinion, is higher than the wage rate offered to them by the firm, and with a request such a firm will be approached by low-skilled workers with low self-esteem (low reservation rate) and therefore willing to work for low wages. This phenomenon also serves as a form of manifestation of information asymmetry and is called negative (or unfavorable) selection (adverse selection). By paying above-equilibrium wages, firms are more likely to attract higher quality (more skilled and productive) workers.
The health of the workers will be better, and consequently their working capacity and productivity will be higher, if they are paid higher wages. Higher paid workers are better fed and more productive. This argument is most relevant to firms in developing countries.

Thus, representatives of the neoclassical direction distinguish: unemployment associated with job searches (search unemployment), in which the labor market is in equilibrium, which constitutes the natural rate of unemployment and which includes:

voluntary unemployment associated with the refusal of workers to work for the wage rate offered to them and causing them to seek work at a higher rate
frictional and structural unemployment associated with the loss of a job and finding people "between jobs" or with the first appearance in the labor market
involuntary unemployment (wait unemployment) associated with labor market disequilibrium (excess labor supply) caused by the establishment of the real wage rate at a level higher than the equilibrium market level (at which the demand for labor is equal to the supply of labor), which is explained by institutional reasons (minimum wage law, trade union activities and the theory of efficient wages) and the expectation of a "balancing" of the labor market.

Representatives of the Keynesian direction in economic theory deny the possibility of voluntary unemployment and believe that unemployment is involuntary, due to the insufficiency of total spending, i.e. aggregate demand, which leads to a recession in the economy, to a recession. Thus, only cyclical unemployment is considered as forced in the Keynesian model.

u * = u Friction + u Struct = (U Friction +U Struct)/L * 100%.

24. SENIORAGE

(seigniorage) The profit received by the authorities from the issuance of money. The term originally referred to the profit from issuing a coin whose face value was higher than the cost of producing it. These days, seigniorage refers to the government's ability to obtain goods and services in exchange for newly printed money. A fast-growing economy needs a significant amount of money, but if the government issues too much, it will lead to inflation, which will reduce the real purchasing power of the money previously issued by the government.

25. Inflation tax- economic damage to which holders of money and other value equivalents are exposed. Such damage is caused by a decrease in the value of the currency due to inflation, with the simultaneous appropriation of benefits by the issuing center that caused inflation. In modern conditions, emission centers are controlled by states, thus a hidden tax is levied on money holders. Many economists point out that inflation tax the rich are less affected and the poor and middle class are more affected, as they are the ones who tend to keep most of their income in cash. In addition, the poor and the middle class receive most of their income in a fixed form - salaries, pensions and benefits, which leads to the impossibility of timely indexation. Some economists point out explicitly that inflation is a regressive tax on consumption.

Term inflation tax is not a strict economic concept.

26. xelerator (Accelerator) is a ratio showing how much investment increases as income increases.

Autonomous investments cause, with the growth of income, stimulated investments (derivative investments), depending on the dynamics of income. This is called the accelerator effect (accelerator). But the "wheel" of the accelerator can turn in the other direction. The reduction in income will also reduce derivative investment, and this will lead to the stagnation of the economy.

The concept of the accelerator was first formulated by the French economist A. Aftalion in 1919. Later it was developed by J. Clark, J. Tinbergen, S. Kuznets, P. Samuelson.

The accelerator formula in a simplified form can be represented as the ratio of investments of a given year to the increase in income of the previous year.

where a is the acceleration coefficient.

From this formula it follows that the investment of period t is a biased response to a change in income in the previous period:

Investment period t

An increase in income, ceteris paribus, will cause a larger increase in investment in the subsequent period, and a decrease in income will cause a multiple reduction in investment. The accelerator effect is closely related to the multiplier effect. Together they form a multiplication-acceleration mechanism.

The discovery of these principles made it possible to understand the mechanism of economic growth and its fluctuations. Sufficiently regular autonomous investments will cause a long-term sustainable growth of the economy if the propensity to save, the accelerator, the productivity ratio of capital do not change. If, on the other hand, autonomous investment does not "feed" economic growth regularly, the marginal propensity to consume rises and the marginal forward propensity to save falls. A decrease in investment will cause a drop in income. This will lead to a further decrease in savings and investment - growth will be replaced by a decline in the economy. This will continue until autonomous investment kicks off economic growth. Thus, the multiplier-acceleration mechanism can be represented as a spiral that either unfolds or collapses, causing cyclical fluctuations in the economy.

27. ECONOMIC CYCLES

A term that refers to regular fluctuations in the level of business activity from an economic boom to an economic downturn. There are four distinct phases in the business cycle: peak, decline, bottom or trough, and rise. The peak, or top of the business cycle, is the "high point" of an economic expansion. At this point, unemployment theoretically reaches its lowest level or disappears altogether, and the economy operates at or near its maximum load, i.e. practically all capital and labor resources available in the country are involved in production. Usually, though not always, inflationary pressures increase during peaks. A recession is a period of reduced production and reduced business activity. Due to the downturn in economic activity, a recession is usually characterized by an increase in unemployment. Most economists believe that only a downturn in business activity that lasts at least six months can be officially considered an economic downturn, or recession. The bottom of the economic cycle is the "trough" of production and employment. It is believed that the bottoming heralds the imminent end of the recession, since this phase of the cycle usually does not last long. However, history knows exceptions to this rule. The Great Depression of the 1930s, despite periodic fluctuations in business activity, lasted almost a decade. After reaching the lowest point of the cycle, the boom phase begins, which is characterized by an increase in employment and production. Many economists believe that low inflation rates are inherent in this stage, at least until the economy begins to function at full capacity, i.e. until it reaches its peak. Although it is generally accepted that changes in business activity are directly or indirectly related to the economic cycle, there are other factors that affect the state of the economy. The most important of these are seasonal fluctuations and long-term trends. The influence of seasonal fluctuations can be traced at certain times of the year, for example, just before Christmas or Easter, when business activity increases sharply, especially in retail trade. Other sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, the automotive industry and construction, also experience seasonal fluctuations. The secular trend determines the long-term increase or decrease in the rate of economic growth. The business cycle is often associated with changes in output. Many economists believe that output, usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is the most reliable indicator of the health of an economy. It is important to note that the economic cycle in the recovery phase is manifested not in GDP growth as such, but in the rate of this growth. Negative growth rates over a period of time, typically six months or more, are seen as a sign of a downturn in the economy. On the contrary, consistently high monthly growth rates indicate that the economy is booming. Economic cycle, stock market and investment. Some activities tend to anticipate the change of the main phases of the economic cycle. This statement, at least in the past, was true for the stock market. On average, until the late 1980s, stock market peaks preceded business peaks by about six months. Since the late 1980s, however, the long-standing relationship between the behavior of the stock market and the economy as a whole has become much less clear, for the simple reason that the stock market has begun to fluctuate only slightly against the backdrop of an overall upward trend. Moreover, in the 1990s, the situation, when activity in the stock market made it possible to predict the state of the economy as a whole, was reversed. At the same time, the divergence in the performance of the stock market and the economy became more and more obvious: reports of a prosperous economic situation in the country often generated a negative reaction on Wall Street. This behavior of the stock market was mainly due to investors' fears that good economic news portends inflation. Another factor correlated with the business cycle is the overall level of net investment in the economy. Indeed, until the 1960s, the increase in investment more or less corresponded to the boom phase of the economy. However, since the mid-1960s, despite the fact that the economic cycle has not been disrupted, the volume of net investment, expressed as a percentage of GDP, has steadily declined, albeit with some fluctuations. In the period 1964-1969, net investment was 4.3% of GDP. In the future, this figure continued to decline and in 1985-1989 fell to 2.6%, and during the economic downturn of 1990-1991 - to 1.4%. Some economists argue that the gradual decline in net investment did not lead to a corresponding decline in business activity only because increased personal consumption, which was heavily reliant on credit, and increased government spending (largely due to budget deficit financing since the late 1960s). 1990s until the late 1990s) more than offset the decline in private investment. Other economists believe that, despite slight fluctuations in the general decline in economic growth, which has the appearance of a business cycle, since the 1960s a secular downward trend has clearly emerged. Indeed, since the 1960s, the duration of booms and peaks in the US economy has been consistently reduced. The average annual economic growth rate in the 1960s was 3.8%, in the 1970s - 2.8%, in the 1980s - 2.5%, and in the first half of the 1990s - 1.8%. This drop in rates can be explained by an increase in "speculative" investment (investment in ownership of existing assets or firms) at the expense of a decrease in "real" capital investment (in the purchase of machinery and equipment and the construction of new plants and factories).
Influence of economic cycles. Of the economic sectors, the services and non-durable goods industries are somewhat less affected by the most devastating effects of the economic downturn. The recession is even boosting some activities, such as boosting demand for pawnshops and bankruptcy lawyers. Firms that produce capital goods and consumer durables are most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations. These firms are not only the hardest hit in the downturn, but also the most benefit from the recovery in the economy. There are two main reasons: the possibility of postponing purchases and the monopolization of the market. The purchase of capital equipment can most often be deferred to the future; in difficult times for the economy, manufacturers tend to refrain from purchasing new machinery and equipment and building new buildings. During an extended downturn, firms often choose to repair or upgrade outdated equipment rather than spend heavily on new equipment. As a result, investment in capital goods declines sharply during economic downturns. The same applies to consumer durables. Unlike food and clothing, buying a luxury car or expensive home appliances can be put off until better times. During economic downturns, people are more likely to repair rather than replace durable goods. Although food and clothing sales tend to decline as well, the decline is usually smaller than the decline in demand for durable goods. Monopoly power in most industries producing capital goods and consumer durables is due to the fact that the markets for these goods are usually dominated by a few large firms. Their monopoly position allows them to keep prices steady during economic downturns by reducing production in response to falling demand. Consequently, the fall in demand has a much greater impact on production and employment than on prices. A different situation is typical for industries that produce non-durable goods. When demand falls, these industries usually respond by lowering prices in general, since no single firm has significant monopoly power.
Reasons for cycles. Because the business cycle is often at the center of the problems faced by businesses, governments, and the public, the question of what causes boom and bust cycles is important. Numerous schools of economic thought answer this question in different ways. For example, some economists associate periods of prosperity with important inventions (such as railroads or synthetic materials); the irregularity of such inventions determines the cyclical nature of economic development. According to another point of view, the reasons for the existence of the economic cycle should be sought in external events, such as wars and subsequent periods of peaceful life. Another group of economists argue that the economic cycle is almost entirely determined by events in the monetary sphere. For example, an increase in the money supply, which includes both cash and credit instruments, at the behest of the Federal Reserve System, stimulates the economy, while a contraction in the money supply depresses it. History in most cases confirms the close relationship of the business cycle with fluctuations in the money supply. However, facts relating to the end of the 20th century contradict this theory. Despite a steady decline in the real money supply in the first half of the 1990s, the economy continued to experience a protracted, albeit mild, recovery. However, few economists are willing to insist on a continuous increase in the money supply, since it is widely believed that excessive stimulus to the economy leads to excessive inflation. Some other theories directly contradict each other. For example, some theorists argue that the capitalist economy naturally tends to achieve an equilibrium state, and therefore, if governments did not intervene in the economy, there would be no fluctuations in the level of employment and prices. Other economists attribute fluctuations in the economy not to "monetary" factors such as prices, interest rates, and unemployment, but to "real" factors, such as new technologies, resource scarcity, and changes in labor productivity. Adherents of both theories believe that the economic policy of the state - regulation, redistribution, artificial stimulation - at best does not benefit the economy, and at worst directly harms it. There is a third point of view: the modern economic system is characterized by instability and even a tendency to a catastrophic collapse, therefore, in order for the economy to move in the right direction, even with some deviations, state intervention is required. This theory owes much of its appearance to the events of the Great Depression, such as the mass dumping of securities and the "raids" of depositors on banks. Finally, according to another theory, business cycles are intrinsic to the economic system. The line of reasoning here is as follows. When profits are high, firms have an incentive to expand production and hire more workers, and this trend gradually spreads throughout the economy. However, as a result of such actions of firms, unemployment is reduced, which may result in a decrease in their profits due to the strengthening of the positions of workers in the labor market and wage increases. When profits fall, companies start laying off workers, driving up the country's unemployment rate and lowering wages, and thereby restore profitability. However, mass layoffs, in turn, lead to a drop in demand for manufactured goods and, accordingly, to a recession in the economy. The process then starts again, thus opening a new cycle.
History and long cycles. Business cycles are not truly "cyclical" in the sense that the length of the period from, say, peak to peak has fluctuated considerably throughout history. Although economic cycles in the United States lasted an average of about five years, cycles have been known to last from one to twelve years. The most pronounced peaks (measured as a percentage increase over the economic growth trend) coincided with the great wars of the 20th century, and the deepest economic recession, excluding the Great Depression, was observed after the end of the First World War. It should be noted that along with the described economic cycle, the theory also distinguishes the so-called. long cycles. Indeed, at the end of the 20 The US economy appears to have entered a prolonged recession, as evidenced by some economic indicators, such as real wages and net investment. Nevertheless, even with a long-term downward trend in growth, the US economy continues to grow; although the country registered negative GDP growth in the early 1980s, it remained positive in all subsequent years except 1991. Symptomatic of the long-term downturn that began in the 1960s is the fact that, although growth has rarely been negative, the level of economic activity in the United States since 1979 has hardly ever exceeded the trend growth rate.

28. economic growth- this is an increase in the volume of production in the national economy for a certain period of time (usually for a year).

The fundamentals of the theory of economic growth and development were created by Joseph Schumpeter at the beginning of the 20th century. Simon Kuznets, Fernand Braudel, Theodor Schultz, Gary Becker, Michael Porter, Nikolai Kondratiev and other scientists also contributed to the theory of growth and development.

Joseph Schumpeter was the first to introduce the differences between economic growth and development, defined the essence of innovation as the main driver of economic growth.

In his basic scientific work - the monograph "The Theory of Economic Development", first published in 1911, Joseph Schumpeter defined economic growth as quantitative changes - an increase in the production and consumption of the same goods and services over time.

Joseph Schumpeter defined economic development as positive qualitative changes, innovations in production, in products and services, in the field of management, in other spheres of life and types of economic activity.

In other words, Joseph Schumpeter defined innovation as the main driver of development and progress, as well as an entrepreneurial resource that creates demand for innovation and its excess supply.

Briefly: growth is quantitative changes, and development is qualitative positive changes aimed at growth and, most importantly, at improving the quality of life.

Unlike a set of indicators for economic development, economic growth is a simpler quantitative indicator. Real output is usually understood as real (that is, cleaned from inflation factors) gross domestic product (GDP), less often - real gross national product (GNP), net national product (NNP), or national income (NI). .

Economic growth is closely related to the growth of the general level and quality of life of the population - the growth of life expectancy, the quality of medical care, the availability of quality education, the reduction of working hours, the safety of citizens, etc.

Theories of growth and development were created by the same authors within the framework of a single approach in which the main factors of growth and development are human capital and innovation. At the same time, qualitative positive changes (development) of intensive factors of growth and development of the economy, which serve as the foundation for its growth, are primary.

Types of economic growth

Distinguish extensive And intensive types of economic growth. In the first case, growth is achieved by increasing the extensive growth factors. In the second - due to intensive growth factors. With the development and mastering of modern achievements in science and technology, intensive growth factors become predominant. In real life, extensive and intensive types of economic growth do not exist in their pure form. Their interweaving and interaction takes place.

Modern growth theory generally distinguishes four types of economic growth: uniform growth leading countries (observed in the USA, Europe), wonders of growth(Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong), growing tragedy(some Central African countries) and lack of economic growth(for example, Zimbabwe).

In Russia, from 2000 to 2008, there was a relatively even growth of the economy.

Economists consider frictional and structural unemployment as inevitable, so full employment of the population takes place when there are only these two forms of unemployment in the country. At full employment, slightly less than 100% of the labor force is employed in manufacturing. The rate of unemployment at full employment in the conditions of the existence of frictional and structural unemployment is called the natural rate of unemployment.

Full employment is a level of employment where there is only frictional and structural unemployment in the economy.

The natural rate of unemployment cannot remain unchanged, fixed once and for all, although, according to Western economists, it fluctuates between 4 and 6%. During the Second World War, when the state artificially restrained the growth of frictional unemployment by introducing overtime or a ban on layoffs, the level of natural unemployment decreased. During periods of rapid structural adjustments, the natural rate of unemployment rises due to an increase in structural unemployment.

4. Cyclical unemployment (sometimes called insufficient demand unemployment, or Keynesian unemployment) occurs as a result of the inability of aggregate demand in the economy to create enough jobs for everyone who wants to work. Unlike frictional and structural unemployment, when the problem lies in the mismatch of jobs with the available labor force, cyclical unemployment arises from a lack of jobs in general. Cyclical unemployment is closely related to the movement of the economic cycle: in the upswing phase, the unemployment rate decreases, and in the depression phase, it increases. At the same time, unemployment of insufficient demand can arise not only due to cyclical economic development, but also as a result of chronic economic stagnation, which is commonly called "long-term stagnation".

Features of cyclical unemployment (in comparison with frictional and structural unemployment) are reduced, firstly, to the presence of significant annual fluctuations in employment associated with the general economic cycle. Secondly. Like frictional unemployment, cyclical unemployment is also widespread throughout the economy. Finally, thirdly, the duration of cyclical unemployment, as a rule (but not necessarily), exceeds the duration of frictional unemployment, but is inferior to the duration of structural unemployment.

To combat cyclical unemployment, it is necessary to adhere to certain public policy programs that ensure stable and healthy economic growth. In addition, it is possible to implement national projects, such as the construction of highways, the development and modernization of the urban economy during periods of depression, leading to an increase in aggregate demand.

The combination of the above factors of unemployment forms its overall level in the country. At the same time, real people with their social status, real regions and industries stand behind the total figure. Finally, the overall unemployment rate is just a statistic that may differ from the actual situation on the labor market. In this regard, the concept of unemployment should be specified using various criteria.

A particular problem in the development of employment policy is the reliability of determining the number of unemployed. The question of who should be considered unemployed is still being discussed by both theorists and practitioners. Today, almost all countries use the ILO methodology to determine the number of unemployed. This methodology is based on three criteria for "unemployment": lack of work or self-employment; willingness and ability to work at a given time; taking practical steps to find a job. But further disagreements arise in the interpretation of these criteria: in fact, can one be considered unemployed forcibly underemployed; how long should the state of “out of work be for a person to be classified as unemployed? As a rule, each state develops its own clarifications of the status of the unemployed.

In Russia, it is even more difficult to determine the real level of unemployment, not only because of disagreements in its understanding. The absence of a normal information base, the insufficient efficiency of employment services, and simply the distrust of a part of the population in these services creates many difficulties in determining unemployment. So, to get the status of unemployed, a person must register with the employment service. Needless to say, not all really unemployed go to the employment service, and many, especially in rural areas, do not even know about the existence of such services. But that's not all. From applying and registering with the employment service to obtaining the status of unemployed, you need to pass a test for compliance with certain conditions: a person must look for work within one to four weeks before applying to the service, have a job for three of the previous twelve months, be fired at their own request, have no other source of income. These rather stringent conditions are supplemented by the fact that citizens already recognized as unemployed should not reject employment offers from employment services, and the already meager unemployment benefit is reduced as the "experience" of unemployment. Only the following factors can force a mass of unemployed people to apply to the employment service:

Hope to find a new job;

A high level of unemployment benefits that ensures a normal existence;

Awareness of the population about the activities of employment services;

Compliance with all conditions (documented) necessary to obtain the status of unemployed.

All these factors work towards understatement of real unemployment in the country.

Thus, the registration approach to determining unemployment does not give reliable results. Other methods of estimating unemployment need to be developed, for example based on sample surveys or expert findings. At the same time, it is necessary to provide the population with full information about their rights in the labor market, to promote the activities of employment services.

Unemployment in Russia comes out on top in a number of macroeconomic problems.

There are three main causes of unemployment:

1) job loss (dismissal);

2) voluntary resignation from work;

3) first appearance on the labor market.

There are three type of unemployment: frictional, structural and cyclic.

frictional unemployment(from the word "friction" - friction) is associated with job search. Obviously, finding a job takes time and effort, so a person who is waiting or looking for a job is unemployed for some time. A feature of frictional unemployment is that people are already looking for work ready-made specialists with a certain level of professional training and qualifications. Therefore, the main cause of this type of unemployment is imperfection of information(information about the availability of vacancies). A person who loses his job today usually cannot find another job tomorrow.

The frictional unemployed include:

1) dismissed from work by order of the administration;

2) resigned of their own free will;

3) awaiting reinstatement in their previous jobs;

4) those who have found a job, but have not yet started it;

5) seasonal workers (out of season);

6) people who first appeared on the labor market and have the level of professional training and qualifications required in the economy.

Frictional unemployment is not only inevitable, since it is associated with natural tendencies in the movement of the labor force (people will always change their place of work, trying to find a job that best suits their preferences and qualifications), but also desired, as it contributes to a more rational distribution of labor and higher productivity (favorite work is always more productive and creative than the one that a person forces himself to do). The frictional unemployment rate is equal to the ratio of the number of frictional unemployed to the total labor force, expressed as a percentage:

Structural unemployment due to structural changes in the economy, which are associated a) with a change in the structure of demand for products of different industries and b) with a change in the sectoral structure of the economy, the cause of which is scientific and technological progress. The structure of demand is constantly changing. Demand for the products of some industries is increasing, leading to an increase in the demand for labor, while demand for the products of other industries is falling, leading to a reduction in employment, layoffs of workers and an increase in unemployment. Over time, the sectoral structure of production also changes: some industries become obsolete and disappear, such as the production of steam locomotives, carriages, kerosene lamps and black-and-white televisions, while others appear, such as the production of personal computers, video recorders, pagers and mobile phones. The set of professions required in the economy is changing. The professions of a chimney sweep, a glass blower, a lamplighter, a coachman, a traveling salesman have disappeared, but the professions of a programmer, an image maker, a disc jockey, and a designer have appeared. The reason for structural unemployment is the discrepancy between the structure of the labor force and the structure of jobs. This means that people with professions and qualifications that do not meet modern requirements and modern industry structure, being fired, cannot find a job. In addition, the structural unemployed include people who first appeared on the labor market, including graduates of higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, whose profession is no longer required in the economy. Structural unemployed also include people who have lost their jobs due to changes in the structure of demand for products from different industries. At different times, the demand for the products of some industries increases, so production expands and additional workers are required, while the demand for the products of other industries falls, production decreases, and workers are fired.

The structural unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of structural unemployed to the total labor force, expressed as a percentage:

Since both frictional and structural unemployment are associated with job searches, these types of unemployment are classified as " search unemployment».

Structural unemployment is more long-lasting and costly than frictional unemployment because finding work in new industries without special retraining and retraining almost impossible. However, like frictional, structural unemployment is an inevitable phenomenon and natural(i.e. associated with natural processes in the development and movement of labor) even in highly developed economies, since the structure of demand for the products of different industries is constantly changing and the sectoral structure of the economy is constantly changing due to scientific and technological progress, and therefore the economy is constantly undergoing and there will always be structural shifts, provoking structural unemployment. Therefore, if there is only frictional and structural unemployment in the economy, then this corresponds to the state full time labor force, and the actual output in this case is equal to the potential.

Natural rate of unemployment(natural rate of unemployment - u *) - this is the level at which the full employment(full-employment) work force, i.e. the most effective and rational use of it. This means that all people who want to work find work. The natural rate of unemployment is therefore called unemployment rate at full employment(full-employment rate of unemployment), and the output corresponding to the natural rate of unemployment is called natural output(natural output). Since full employment of the labor force means that there is only frictional and structural unemployment in the economy, the natural rate of unemployment can be calculated as the sum of frictional and structural unemployment rates:

The current name for this indicator is non-inflationary unemployment rate– NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). Consider the graph of economic growth and the economic cycle.

Each point of the curve depicting economic growth (Fig. 4.1.), i.e. each point on the trend corresponds to the value of potential GDP or the state of full employment of resources (points B and C). And each point on the sinusoid representing the economic cycle corresponds to the value of the actual GDP (points A and D). If actual output exceeds potential(point A), i.e. the actual unemployment rate is below the natural rate, this means that aggregate demand exceeds aggregate output. This is the situation overemployment. When moving from point B to point A, the price level rises, i.e. accelerating inflation. Thus, when the economy is at the level of potential output (full employment), which corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment, inflation does not accelerate.

1) an increase in the amount of unemployment benefits;

2) an increase in the duration of the payment of unemployment benefits;

3) an increase in the share of women in the labor force;

4) increasing the share of young people in the labor market

Actual unemployment may exceed its natural rate. This happens during a downturn (recession) in the economy. Unemployment caused by a recession is cyclical unemployment. On the business cycle diagram (Fig. 4.1.), this situation is represented by point D, in which the actual GDP is less than the potential one. This means that there is an underemployment of resources in the economy, i.e. . the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural one. In modern conditions, the existence of cyclical unemployment is associated both with the insufficiency of total spending in the economy, i.e. a reduction in aggregate demand and a reduction in aggregate supply.

Since the sum of the levels of frictional, structural and involuntary unemployment is equal to the natural rate of unemployment, then the actual unemployment rate is equal to the sum of the natural rate of unemployment and the rate of cyclical unemployment:

u fact. = u* + u cycle.

The most important macroeconomic problem is the existence of unemployment. Its size directly affects the price level and the volume of production, the structure and forms of income distribution, the state budget and public spending. And such macroeconomic indicators as the level of employment and the unemployment rate are the most important parameters that determine the effectiveness of the ongoing economic policy.

In a market economy, there is always a certain classification of the country's population. In accordance with it, the entire population is divided into institutional And non-institutional.

TO institutional usually include persons who do not temporarily or permanently have any factors of production, i.e. this is a disabled population. These include children, pensioners, the disabled, the sick, women on parental leave, and so on.

Non-institutional population- these are persons who have any factors of production, i.e. this is the able-bodied population.

The entire non-institutional population is subdivided into economically active(amateur) and economically passive(non-active).

Economically active population(labor force) is made up of people who are employed or looking for work for hire. The economically active population includes busy And unemployed.

A to economically passive include persons who are not employed and are not looking for such work (military personnel, students, housewives, freelancers, persons without a fixed place of residence, etc.).

Unemployment is a cyclical phenomenon, expressed in the excess of the supply of labor over the demand for it.

International Labor Organization (ILO ) unemployment is defined as the presence of a certain number of people of working age who do not have a job, but are able to work and are looking for it at the moment.

Thus, according to the definition of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployed a person who can work, wants to work, independently actively seeks work, but cannot find a job due to lack of jobs or insufficient professional training.

Unemployment is a socio-economic phenomenon that objectively characterizes a market economy and exists even in conditions of full use of resources, the so-called moderate unemployment.

moderate unemployment necessary for the normal development of the economy, as it:

- forms a reserve of unemployed labor, which can be used if it is necessary to expand production;

- enhances incentives for work and entrepreneurship;

- is an effective means of increasing productivity and labor discipline.

At the same time, unemployment is a negative phenomenon that has a direct and strong impact on every person. Losing a job for most people means a decline in living standards and causes serious psychological trauma.

A large number of unemployed people in society leads to economic losses and social upheaval. In order for the state to be able to pursue an effective economic policy, it is necessary to assess the size of unemployment and determine its level.

Two indicators are used to characterize unemployment:

1) the duration of unemployment (the time during which a person remains unemployed);

2) Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total economically active population.

Where u- unemployment rate;

U- the number of unemployed;

E- the number of employees (employed).

The unemployment rate is an indicator that characterizes the extent of unemployment in a country.

If, for example, the number of unemployed is 10 million people, and the number of employed is 90 million, then the economically active population (labor force) is 100 (10+90) million people. Hence the unemployment rate is 10% [(10: 100) x 100%].

The economic literature distinguishes the following types (kinds) of unemployment: frictional, structural, seasonal, cyclical, stagnant.

1. Frictional unemployment this is temporary and voluntary unemployment associated with the voluntary transition of workers from one job to another and initial employment, i.e. covers workers who are looking for or waiting to get a job in the near future. This is the period between being fired from one job and entering another or returning to the same place.

Frictional unemployment always exists, it is inevitable. It is based on the natural movement of labor resources between enterprises, regions and industries. People will always seek to change jobs in order to get some kind of advantage: higher wages, promotions, less time spent in transport, more interesting work, etc. An essential feature of frictional unemployment is that people who are looking for work , have the necessary qualifications, training and skills. There is a demand from capital for their ability.

Such unemployment is short, it lasts from 1 to 3 months.

2. Structural unemployment this is a forced form of unemployment that occurs as a result of a decrease in demand for labor under the influence of structural changes in the economy, scientific and technological progress, which change the demand for certain professions and specialties.

Thus, structural unemployment is due to the emergence of a professional and qualification mismatch between the structure of vacant jobs and the structure of workers, i.e. discrepancy between the structures of demand and supply of labor in terms of qualifications, demographic, geographical and other categories.

The development of the economy is constantly accompanied by the following structural changes: new technologies appear, new goods that replace the old ones. There are shifts in the structure of demand in the capital market, the goods market and the labor market. As a result, there are changes in the professional and qualification structure of the labor force, which requires its constant territorial and sectoral redistribution.

Under the influence of scientific and technological progress, some sectors of the economy are gradually dying off, disappearing, at the same time, new industries and industries are emerging. Accordingly, the structure of demand for labor is changing. For example, the emergence of automatic production lines has led to a reduction in the need for machine operators (turners, millers, etc.). The development of the production of artificial synthetic materials led to a decrease in steel production and, accordingly, to a reduction in workers in metallurgy.

Disproportions in the development of enterprises in different industries in the regions also lead to the emergence of structural unemployment. For example, in the 1960s and 1970s, weaving production prevailed in Ivanovo, which traditionally provided employment for women, and men turned out to be “superfluous”, so the complex development of the region was required, in particular, the creation of machine-building plants.

Structural unemployment also arises from changes in geographic distribution; work places. The labor force responds slowly to changes in demand. So, for example, a miner who lost his job due to the closure of the mine must either move to another region and enter another mine there, or undergo retraining and acquire a different profession. At the same time, finding and getting a new job requires some time, the availability of relevant information, the necessary infrastructure - a developed housing market, the absence of obstacles in choosing a place of residence (obtaining registration, registration or residence permit). An important feature of structural unemployment is that the qualifications and training of the unemployed do not fully correspond to the existing demand from capital.

One form of structural unemployment is technological unemployment, arising from the introduction of new technologies and new equipment, which leads to the replacement of people by machines and their release. At the same time, if the market volume increases, then employment increases mainly due to the involvement of workers with new professions and higher qualifications.

Thus, structural unemployment occurs when workers who have lost their jobs in some sectors of the economy as a result of structural changes cannot be employed in vacant jobs that are available in other sectors (sectors, regions). Structural unemployment differs from frictional unemployment in a longer duration and is typical for workers with low qualifications or an outdated profession, and also covers the population of economically backward areas.

Such unemployment lasts from about 3 months to 1 year.

3. Cyclical (opportunistic) unemployment this is the release of labor force caused by the general decline in production, i.e. that phase of the economic cycle, which is characterized by a reduction in aggregate demand, production and employment. It affects all spheres and sectors of the economy. The value of cyclical unemployment changes periodically, reflecting the dynamics of the economic cycle.

During a cyclical downturn, cyclical unemployment complements frictional and structural unemployment; there is no cyclical unemployment during periods of cyclical upswing.

Unemployment caused by a decline in production (opportunistic) can exist in hidden And open forms.

hidden form means a reduction in the working day or week, sending staff on forced leave and, accordingly, a decrease in wages.

open form means the dismissal of an employee, the complete loss of work and, accordingly, income.

At the same time, the decline in employment does not affect different segments of society to the same extent. First of all, insufficiently qualified workers, women, representatives of national minorities lose their jobs. Highly qualified personnel are employed in industries that are less subject to cyclical fluctuations (nuclear energy, computer science, electronics, etc.). In those sectors where there is a recession, entrepreneurs are interested in retaining qualified personnel, since solid funds have been spent on their training and education. When the economic situation recovers, a laid-off employee may not return to his original place, and the company will have to train new staff.

With cyclical (opportunistic) unemployment, the supply on the labor market is less than the demand that capital imposes on labor resources.

Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of the actual unemployment rate from the natural one. Cyclical unemployment is associated with a decrease in real GNP and the release of part of the labor force, which leads to an increase in the number of unemployed. It is also necessary to distinguish between real and fictitious unemployment. The characteristic features of the first are the ability to work and the desire to work of an employee who, for certain reasons, is unemployed; the second is the unwillingness to engage in labor activity for one reason or another.

4. Seasonal unemployment due to seasonal fluctuations in the volume of production of certain industries (i.e., depending on the time of year): agriculture, construction, crafts, in which sharp changes in the demand for labor occur during the year. Seasonal fluctuations in the demand for labor, as a rule, are determined by the peculiarities of the rhythm of the production process. Therefore, the size of seasonal unemployment in general terms can be predicted and taken into account when signing contracts between employers and employees.

5. Long-term unemployment caused by an excess of labor force, overpopulation. Covers the most professionally untrained part of the labor force. These are, as a rule, ruined peasants, former housewives, unskilled workers and others. Such unemployment can last for years. Its representatives, living on benefits or odd jobs, wander, beg, gradually turning into lumpen and sinking to the social bottom. They can only get a permanent job as a last resort, when the economy is booming and the labor force becomes severely scarce.

Obviously, at any given moment in the country there is a certain frictional, structural and seasonal unemployment, i.e. some of the workers are constantly away from their jobs. These workers form the so-called "natural" or "normal" unemployment that always exists in any country.

natural unemployment – stable over a long period of time the number of unemployed covered by frictional, structural and seasonal unemployment. It characterizes the state of the labor market, in which there is an approximate equality between the number of vacancies and the number of workers looking for work.

concept natural rate of unemployment , first introduced into scientific circulation by M. Friedman. According to M. Friedman, the natural rate of unemployment reflects the economic feasibility of using labor force, just as the degree of utilization of production capacities reflects the feasibility and efficiency of using fixed capital.

Forming a labor reserve, natural unemployment allows for the expansion of production without rising prices.

Since natural unemployment exists constantly and without it the normal functioning of a market economy is impossible, the concept of “full employment” does not mean 100% employment of the labor force, but implies the presence of natural unemployment. Thus, the problem of ensuring full employment of the population turns into the problem of maintaining unemployment at a natural level.

The amount of natural unemployment depends primarily on demographic, institutional and social factors. For example, an increase in the proportion of young people in the unemployed leads to an increase in frictional unemployment. The development of infrastructure in the labor market (labor exchanges, employment services, organization of public works, etc.) leads to a decrease in natural unemployment, as well as an increase in the level of the minimum wage, unemployment benefits, and social payments.

In the real economy, the current actual unemployment rate, as a rule, is not equal to the natural level, exceeding it during the recession and being below the natural level during the recovery period.