Many countries are trying to move away from dependence on the dollar, which has persisted for decades. China, Russia and India enter into agreements that allow them to accept each other's currencies in bilateral trade, Europe sees the euro as a reserve asset and an international medium of exchange.

Frederick William Engdahl

And if the dominance of the dollar had previously been preserved, it still did not pose a mortal threat. However, what has been happening lately is much more serious. And this phenomenon even has an ominous name: dedollarization.

China, increasingly supported by Russia, is taking decisive steps to create a very viable alternative to the tyranny of the US dollar in global trade and finance. Wall Street and Washington are not surprised by this, but they cannot stop it, writes American economist Frederick William Engdahl.

As long as Wall Street's dirty tricks and machinations could create a crisis, as in the Eurozone in Greece in 2010, countries with trade surpluses such as China, Japan and then Russia had no alternative but to buy more Treasuries. USA.

Washington and Wall Street could print endless volumes of dollars, backed by nothing more valuable than F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks. China, Russia and other dollar bond holders were actually financing US wars that targeted them by buying up US debt. Back then they had few real alternative options.

Viable Alternative

Now, ironically, the two countries that extended the life of the dollar after 1989 - Russia and China - reveal that most fear the alternative of creating a viable international currency backed by gold and perhaps several similar currencies that could reduce the hegemonic role of the dollar today .

For several years, both Russia and China have been buying huge volumes of gold, mainly to fill up the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, which are otherwise held in dollars or euros. Until recently, it was not clear why.

For several years, the largest buyers of physical gold in the gold markets have been the central banks of China and Russia. And it was unclear how deep the strategy they implemented was simply to build confidence in the currencies amid rising economic sanctions and Washington's belligerent trade war.

China and Russia, joining their major trading partners in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Eurasian partner countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), are about to complete the creation of a new monetary alternative to the dollar.

Currently, in addition to the founding members China and Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and more recently India and Pakistan are full members of the SCO. This is a population of over 3 billion people, about 42% of the world's total population, who unite in peaceful economic and political cooperation.

Golden Silk Road

It is clear that the economic diplomacy of China and Russia, as well as the group of countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, is largely associated with the construction of advanced high-speed railways, ports, energy infrastructure, united by a huge new market that will eclipse any economic opportunities in the countries within less than 10 years OECD EU and North America suffering from huge debts.

What was vital, but not entirely clear, was a strategy to free Eurasian countries from the dollar and their vulnerability to further US sanctions and dollar-dependent financial warfare. This has to happen.

At the annual BRICS summit in Xiamen, China, on September 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out quite simply and clearly the Russian vision of the current economic world. He said: “Russia shares the concerns of the BRICS countries about the inequity of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not take into account the growing influence of emerging market countries. We stand ready to work with our partners to promote international financial regulatory reforms and overcome the undue dominance of a limited number of reserve currencies."

As far as is known, he has never been so outspoken about currencies. And when put in the context of the latest financial architecture presented by Beijing, it is clear that the world will soon reach a new level of economic freedom.

Chinese oil futures denominated in yuan

According to a report from the Japan Nikkei Asian Review, China is set to launch oil futures denominated in yuan, which will be converted into gold. And this gets interesting given China's other moves over the past two years to become a viable alternative to London and New York in Shanghai.

China is the world's largest oil importer, the vast majority of which is paid in dollars. If the new yuan oil futures gain widespread acceptance, it could become the most important benchmark for oil in Asia, given that China is the world's largest oil importer. This would jeopardize Wall Street's two crude oil futures, Brent and WTI, which have so far provided Wall Street with huge hidden advantages.

This would be another giant manipulation lever that would be able to eliminate China and its oil partners, including Russia. The introduction of oil futures traded in Shanghai in the yuan, which recently joined the IMF's reserve currency basket, could significantly change the geopolitical balance of power from the Atlantic world to Eurasia.

In April 2016, China took a big step to become the new world center for gold trading, physical gold. Today, China is the world's largest gold producer, far ahead of BRICS member South Africa and Russia, which ranks second.

Now, if you add the new oil futures that are traded in China in Yuan backed by gold, this will lead to a sharp shift among key OPEC members, even in the Middle East, to prefer gold backed Yuan over dollar backed oil. carries a geopolitical risk that Qatar has experienced since Trump's visit to Riyadh a few months ago. Notably, Russian state oil giant Rosneft has just announced that Chinese state oil company China Energy Company Ltd. just bought a 14% stake in Rosneft from Qatar. All this begins to add up to one clear picture.

Latin America is also taking steps towards de-dollarization

Meanwhile, in Latin America, the situation with the abandonment of the dollar is also developing rapidly.

Hasn't the doomsday clock for the petrodollar (and implicit US hegemony) ticked another minute closer to midnight?

Seemingly confirming what President Maduro warned in the wake of recent US sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reports that Venezuela has officially stopped accepting US dollars as payment for crude oil exports.

As noted earlier, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that Venezuela intends to “free itself” from the US dollar: “Venezuela intends to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free the country from the dollar. And if they come after us with the dollar, we will start using the Russian ruble, the yuan, the yen, the Indian rupee, the euro.”

State oil company PDVSA has told its private partners about a joint venture to open accounts in euros and convert existing cash into Europe's main currency, one of the project partners said.

This is the first step towards the adoption of one or more gold-backed Eurasian currencies, and it certainly looks viable and - for many major players - a welcome addition to the global money supply.

Venezuela shows growing US weakness. It used to be that a small country that refused to take dollars could expect regime change within a short period of time. Now, things have changed somewhat.

Add in the emergence of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as the monetary asset of choice for libertarians, and the monetary world suddenly begins to look completely multipolar.

According to some reports, the American dollar may disappear from circulation in foreign trade transactions of the Russian Federation over time. The government develops and approves a plan for the transition to the national currency. Does this mean that now in export-import relations with the countries of the Eurasian Union we will pay in rubles, with China - in yuan, with the EU - in euros? Most likely, the country will soon fully feel the advantages and disadvantages of castling banknotes of the Russian Federation, but even today a number of consequences can be identified for Russians and entrepreneurs.

The reason for the possible abandonment of the American currency was Washington’s threats: the arrest of Russian government debt, the freezing of financial transactions of Russian state banks in the United States - all this pushed the process of withdrawing dollars from the Russian economy. Plans to stop payments in American currency, according to Mr. Siluanov, are already ready and submitted to the government for consideration. Details of the plan have not been disclosed, and little is known. The main thing is the transition to settlements in the national currency of the Russian Federation with the CIS countries, the EU, and the Eurasian Union. In this case, a huge part of transactions is covered, and the possibility of refusing to pay in dollars for oil is not excluded.

The process will not be sudden, it will last for 5 years and is expected to be completed by the end of 2024. For companies operating in ruble settlements with foreign companies, or planning to switch to domestic banknotes, the authorities promise tax benefits. This could be an accelerated VAT refund, or the cancellation of the obligation to return export proceeds.

Some experts predict a temporary “rollback” to the 1980s. For example, M. Delyagin, head of the Institute of Globalization Problems, Doctor of Economic Sciences, suggests the development of events in two ways. The first is a complete rejection of US dollars, but while officials assure that Russians will not lose the opportunity to open dollar accounts, the scenario looks dubious. This can provoke the emergence of a “black market”, where the price for one dollar will be at least 5 times higher than the official value. For example, in 1980, the official rate was 67 kopecks per $1, and speculators sold currency for 3-5 rubles, for the same $1.

Let's calculate according to today's realities: the approximate exchange rate is 66 rubles, multiply and get up to 500 rubles. for 1$. However, there are also experts who talk about the liberality of the government’s economic bloc, without predicting any currency restrictions. Experts rely on the fact that even after the 1998 default, Russians did not have any problems with the currency.

The second version of the scenario, according to Mr. Delyagin, is more reasonable and realistic: dollars will be excluded from foreign trade transactions. Other currencies will remain available: euro, Swiss francs, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan. Such a policy is already noticeable today; according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in 2017 foreign trade operations increased in volume by almost a quarter, exceeding $590 billion. Goods worth $353 billion were exported from the Russian Federation, and goods worth $238 billion were purchased abroad. By all indicators, an increase of 25%. The main trading partners of the Russian Federation: China (15%), Germany (8.5%), Holland (6.8%), Belarus (5%). Trade operations with the United States did not even reach 4%; Turkey, Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan, Poland, and France show even less.

As the volume of sanctions against Russia grows, payments in rubles increase, including in foreign trade transactions. In 2013, the component of payments in dollars was estimated at 80%, today it is no more than 36%. In rubles, the volume of settlements is growing and today occupies “second place”, amounting to almost 29%.

Trade volumes in euros are also “growing”, from 8% to 31%; other currencies are not so popular yet, although here the number of trade transactions is steadily increasing, still amounting to just under 3%.

Yuan helps us

Today, almost all dollar payments go through American financial institutions, so the US currency is becoming “highly toxic” for the trade market. If Washington really prohibits Russian banks and holding companies from conducting operations on the market, then the process of refusing to use the currency will begin to grow like a snowball and will affect all states conducting trade with the Russian Federation. It turns out that forced de-dollarization in international payments will only benefit the Russian economy.

The absence of payments in dollars reduces the country’s vulnerability to the introduction of currency sanctions; the state will have the opportunity to establish ties with other countries without the use of “bucks”; in addition, the Russian Federation’s dependence on fluctuations and shocks of a global macroeconomic nature will be reduced.

M. Delyagin believes that not all countries will switch to their national currency in settlements with the Russian Federation. It is very profitable for China to promote the yuan, but will the country be happy to abandon the dollar and completely switch to its own currency, which is not yet quoted so well on the market? And today, representatives of Chinese trading companies complain about the instability of the ruble exchange rate, although they talk a lot about continued cooperation and the possibility of switching to alternative external settlements.

For example, when the economic crisis unfolded in Russia in 2014, economists from the Celestial Empire assured that the Russian currency was literally one step away from devaluation. Beijing-based analyst Li Haishan predicted a significant weakening of the ruble, which would lead to a decline in status and make the Russian currency unattractive for Russian-Chinese trade relations. Reason: an increase in the cost of goods purchased by the Russian Federation from China, which means unfavorable consequences for the export-import relations of the countries.

Indeed, Beijing should have expected negative developments when the dollar exchange rate reached its maximum of 67.8 rubles in December 2014. Let us recall that in January of the same year the dollar was sold for 32.6 rubles.

Chinese analysts feared that due to aggravation and disagreements with the United States, the country would not fulfill all its obligations, which means that the situation could only be resolved by breaking Russian-Chinese trade relations. But that year everything worked out and the mood of economists improved significantly.

The refusal of dollars in mutual settlements today could provoke an accumulation of Russian currency in the accounts of Chinese banks. And although China needs rubles for trade with the Russian Federation, large reserves of rubles from local Chinese businessmen will cause the devaluation of the Russian national currency, and the use of rubles in transactions that are in no way connected with the Russian Federation will lead to financial damage for Chinese companies.

However, high government officials in Beijing and Moscow are beaming with optimism and assure that the countries intend to help increase the share of national currencies in trade payments, investments, financing, as well as develop cooperation in the areas of payment systems and insurance - this is exactly what was discussed at V.V.’s negotiations. Putin and the leader of the People's Republic of China in June 2018

In addition to China, all developing countries may experience the risk of devaluation, with which the Russian Federation will try not to pay in dollars.

If the yuan dipped by only 6%, which was a consequence of the trade confrontation with the United States, then the Turkish lira, due to disputes between Ankara and Washington, depreciated by almost 40% - this is in comparison with US dollars.

Three years ago V.V. Putin called Turkey one of the priority trading partners of the Russian Federation, and today the republic barely rose to 5th place in trade turnover (from 3.5% to 4.2%), the volume of trade transactions in the first six months of 2018 increased by 46%, which amounted to 11 .4 billion US dollars.

The warning from BCS senior analyst S. Suverov is encouraging that deposits from Russian state banks and export companies will support a volume of several tens of billions of Turkish lira for quick settlements with companies. And even if the lira exchange rate collapses sharply, the funds will not be lost, but will be used for settlements over time. However, the decrease in working capital caused by the fall of the lira may become a source of decrease in investment in Russian business due to the low valuation rating from some international agencies.

What awaits the ruble

To replace currency in foreign trade transactions, you need to have a good trade balance. Balance is the difference between sales and purchases, positive balance means that you bought less than you sold, negative balance means that sales are small and purchases are large. Data from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation report a positive balance for 8 months of 2018. Compared to 2017, the balance increased by 60%, amounting to just under 130 billion US dollars.

For organizations that transferred payments from dollars to euros and other currencies, the government promised to cancel obligations to return export proceeds. In reality, this means that instead of returning money to the country, the finances will calmly settle in foreign banks.

The fact is that, according to the legislation of 2003, an exporter who has received funds from another state that are deposited into a foreign bank account is obliged to return this money to his homeland. The law was introduced for a reason, but to reduce the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation. Repatriation of funds existed until 2007, when in Russia operations for the sale of foreign currency earnings within the country were made mandatory. Now, by 2024, officials are preparing a new rule: money earned from exporting goods (selling abroad) can remain in banks abroad if payments were made in ruble equivalent.

Despite the growth of international payments in rubles, experts say that the proposed benefit opens the way for dubious transactions to withdraw money abroad. Nothing will prevent organizations and individuals from making fictitious transactions, withdrawing funds abroad without any possibility of returning to their homeland. How much money will instantly flow out of the country and never enter the country’s economy again - no one will say about it. It is impossible to prevent or track such transactions; the finances will be under the jurisdiction of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which means they will be subject to uncontrolled status.

In addition, all distortions and violations of foreign trade transactions that limit the possibility of settlements in rubles will only intensify: today the dollar currency is considered the norm, payment processes are reflected throughout the global financial structure. Dollar transactions are much cheaper than payments in the national currency, gold. It is a stable financial unit, accepted even for long-term contracts. Few of the counterparties will agree to switch to the ruble - one of the most unstable currencies in the world. The same Beijing, with its severe trade wars with Washington, is in no hurry to give up the US “bucks,” and Russia, with its share of imported equipment in modern enterprises, cannot do without “green” payments. In the field of geological exploration, oil production, refining, and other industries, the share of imported equipment reaches 70%, telecommunications are 95% foreign, and the situation is no better in the light and food industries.

The equipment is bought only for US dollars and no one will sell it to us for rubles, as well as consumables, spare parts, and components for these devices. It will take decades to establish your own production, and it is not a fact that the quality will be at least the same.

Will America itself give up the dollar?

Few people know that America itself is ready to abandon the dollar. Analysts say that the current US president is already solving the problem with the country's external debt. Today, the amount of debt has already exceeded $20 trillion, which is much more than the US GDP. The decision is to introduce a single currency for the USA, Canada, and Mexico. For “ours”, such new “bucks” will be exchanged at the rate of 1:1, and for “strangers”, the list of which includes Russia along with Turkey, Iran, China, the rate will be 1:10 or 1:100. In this case, everyone will suffer - from ordinary Russians saving at home to companies transferring money to bank accounts or to currency cards.

Stalin and Gaddafi are leaders of countries that tried to abandon the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

There are 3 countries on the planet that previously tried not to use the US dollar as a world reserve currency. Let’s look at what happened to them and what’s happening to the dollar today using examples.

1. Dollar and USSR

In the 1940s, following the results of World War II, the American dollar was accepted as a reserve currency in the world. The only strong country in the world that then refused to recognize the power of the dollar was the USSR at the instigation of Stalin.

Under Stalin, the ruble was backed by gold. I quote:

The declared gold content of the ruble was equal to 0.222168 grams of pure gold; The selling price of 1 gram of gold was set at 4.45 rubles.

Stalin also ensured the growth of the USSR economy after the Second World War at such a pace that by 1970 would have led to a threefold superiority of the Soviet Union over Western countries. This was stated in Washington and Brussels.

This could not be allowed in Washington. Therefore, many experts are confident that Stalin’s death in 1953 was not accidental. It is impossible to prove this, but it happened too timely, precisely in the interests of the West.

What happened to the USSR

As a result, Khrushchev became Stalin's successor and in 1961 carried out a reform of the ruble, after which our economy began to develop at a slower pace, which 30 years later led to the collapse of the USSR. This is what happened to our country as a result.

2. Dollar and France

Charles de Gaulle is a national hero of France. He was the first after Stalin to understand that not all is well with the American dollar. Moreover, the French currency, the franc, has become another candidate for the title of world currency. And he was backed by gold!

As a result, in 1960, Charles de Gaulle announced the abandonment of the dollar and the transition to international payments of his country in gold. He then confirmed his line in 1965.

And then he collected dollars in his country and sent them by ship to the USA, demanding in return that he give him gold. Let me remind you that at that time the price for a troy ounce was 35 USD.

According to various sources, as a result of the sale of dollars, the French treasury was replenished with an amount of gold from 1,650 to 3,000 tons.

Other countries tried to follow the example of Paris, so in 1971 it was announced that the dollar was no longer backed by gold.

What happened to France

About 2 years after the return of the French gold reserves to France, de Gaulle ceased to be the head of the country, and a little later he died. And this death can also be considered incomprehensible, like the death of Stalin. That is, very timely and even indicative of maintaining the power of the dollar.

The result of de Gaulle's work was France's withdrawal from the NATO military organization in 1966. But today this country is again drawn into the sphere of activity of the Alliance thanks to Washington’s “soft policy” to ensure control over the countries of the European Union.

3. Dollar and Libya

Muammar Gaddafi was the head of a country in which the population had more wealth and freedoms than some countries in Western Europe. The country owned huge reserves of oil and gas.

And the time came when Gaddafi stopped trusting the West and announced in 2010-2011 a transition to the “golden dinar” - a currency backed by gold. And he called on other Muslim countries to follow his example.

Strictly speaking, it was not Gaddafi who proposed switching to the gold dinar - this was done 10 years before him. But it was he who could ensure the existence of this currency in 2011, which became a threat to the power of the dollar.

It was a direct competitor to the dollar, and more attractive due to its peg to the precious metal.

As a result, very little time passed, and Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown by militants who introduced themselves as the “Libyan people.” Naturally, this happened with the participation of the United States and NATO countries.

What happened to Libya

Since the death of Gaddafi, the country has been in civil war for eight years. Although General Haftar, the pro-Russian leader of the Libyan army, already controls up to 90% of the country’s territory and its hydrocarbon deposits. But minor clashes between tribes continue, and Libya's economy is in ruins.

The countries mentioned above tried to abandon the dollar in the 20th century. But at the present time, not everything is so simple either.

Results as of the 21st century. Dollar and Russia

Russia also initiated the abandonment of the dollar in international payments in the 21st century. And this was a response to America’s actions against our country (reasons: the situation in Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, as well as sanctions, etc.). Russia simply has no other choice but to defend itself.

The Russian Federation initiated the abandonment of the dollar starting in 2018. This process should finally be completed within 5 years. That is, until the end of Putin’s current presidential term – in 2023.

As a result, China, India, Russia, Iran, Syria and other countries (including members of the SCO and BRICS) began to ignore the dollar as much as possible. The population of these countries is from 40% to 50% of the planet.

This means a decrease in dollar purchases for mutual settlements between states and a decrease in US income. Even in Europe, they are seriously considering abandoning the dollar when paying for gas supplied from the Russian Federation and switching to the euro.

This process could lead to the erosion of the power of the dollar and, as a consequence, to the undermining of US dominance in the world. Naturally, in America they will try to prevent this. This led to confrontation between the Russian Federation and Western countries.

What will happen to Russia because of such a confrontation is not yet known. Therefore, we need to be prepared for any development of events.

MOSCOW, September 18 - RIA Novosti, Natalya Dembinskaya. From many years of conversations and reflections on how to reduce dependence on the main currency of the world, the US dollar, states are moving to concrete actions. Recently, the head of VTB, Andrei Kostin, presented a plan to abandon the American currency. The Chairman of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, voiced his proposals to deprive the dollar of its current status to the European Parliament. What governments are ready to do to get rid of the dollar shackles, and where the “American” has already turned on the red light - in the RIA Novosti material.

Kostin's plan

The plan of the head of VTB involves the re-registration of the largest Russian holdings in the domestic jurisdiction, the placement of Eurobonds on the Russian site, as well as the licensing of all stock market participants. The first and main point of the program is an accelerated transition in settlements with foreign countries for export-import transactions to other currencies. Certain steps have already been taken in this direction - since 2014, agreements with China on bilateral trade in rubles have been in force.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, this year the trade turnover between Moscow and Beijing will reach $100 billion, and the volume of payments in national currencies will also increase. In 2017, about ten percent of payments for supplies from Russia to China were denominated in rubles; Russian companies paid for almost 15% of Chinese imports in yuan.

The next important step that Russia is ready to take is to abandon the dollar when paying for its main export commodity - oil. Analysts point out that the American currency can be excluded right now from settlements with China, Turkey and Iran, which will only strengthen the trend towards de-dollarization.

China is going the same way. In March, Beijing, amid the outbreak of a trade war with the United States, dealt a powerful blow to the dollar on the global energy market by opening trading in oil futures in the national currency. This turned out to be a timely preventative measure. Now the Celestial Empire is going to pay for physical oil supplies in yuan.

Analysts note: abandoning the dollar is advisable not only for payments for oil, but for all payments in general. Russia, for example, may well start with the Eurasian Union.

Europe is tired of the dollar

Europe is also losing hundreds of millions from the trade wars launched by Trump. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, speaking before the European Parliament, stated the need to deprive the dollar of its status as the main world currency.

© AP Photo/Evan Vucci

© AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The dismantling is supposed to begin again with petrodollars: Juncker complained that Europe pays for 80% of energy imports in American currency. He also called it absurd that European companies buy European planes for dollars, not euros.

The European currency must become “the face and instrument of a new, sovereign Europe,” Juncker emphasized.

Ruble or euro

The agreement of counterparties to invest their currencies in the ruble, in order to then pay them for the supplied oil, would contribute to the strengthening of the Russian currency. However, the main trouble is the high risks of the ruble, which is volatile and unpredictable in profitability. To trade in other currencies, Russia’s desire alone is not enough; the good will of partner countries is also required.

“The transition is, of course, possible, but some kind of discounts or preferences will have to be given so that they at least cover the risks of the partners,” says Sergei Khestanov, adviser to the general director for macroeconomics at Otkritie Broker. Therefore, for now, settlements in euros look like a more realistic option.

On the other hand, some countries have already expressed a desire to switch to payments in national currencies. In particular, Türkiye, which experienced a collapse of the lira due to Washington sanctions. With its largest partners - China, Russia, Iran and Ukraine - Turkey is ready to trade in national currencies, said the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As with European countries, if they wish, the Turkish leader added.

Anti-dollar riot

Nevertheless, it will not be possible to completely abandon the dollar. The global financial system is structured in such a way that the “American” accounts for 70% of all payments. “Russia trades oil, and it is denominated in dollars. Accordingly, in order to support import and export operations, a significant part of the reserves must be in American currency,” explains analyst Timur Nigmatullin.

Independent economic expert Anton Shabanov considers the idea of ​​switching to national currencies in mutual settlements to be quite logical. But the plan proposed by the head of VTB “looks, if not a utopia, then a Wright brothers’ plane,” Shabanov noted on Sputnik radio. The fact is that there is not yet enough global infrastructure to implement the plan.

One way or another, according to World Bank forecasts, the dollar will lose its main role in the global financial system. It will be replaced by a system of three currencies: the euro, the dollar and some kind of Asian currency - most likely the yuan.

American economist and former IMF advisor Barry Eichengreen explains the inevitability of the dollar losing its status as the world's main currency: the power of modern financial technologies is destroying the “network effects” that created a natural currency monopoly. He compares this process to the development of operating systems for personal electronics - it is no longer necessary to use only Windows.

The revolt against the dollar could be much stronger than most economists predict, warns Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for Global Security Analysis. He recalled that the United States is now waging an economic war against two dozen countries of the world with a total GDP of over 15 trillion dollars. Russia and China set the course, drawing more and more participants into the “anti-dollar bloc.” According to Luft, the main front where the future of the dollar will be decided will be the global commodity market - including the $1.7 trillion oil market.

The growing US sanctions pressure on Russia and the unstable exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar are forcing many politicians and economists to hatch projects for Russia to stop using dollars in payments and international financial transactions. Is it possible? Invest Foresight asked several leading expert economists to answer the question.

Yakov Mirkin, Head of the Department of International Capital Markets at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences

The dollar is the world's number one reserve currency. Prices for raw materials are determined in dollars: these are the prices of oil, metals, food, and the cost of commodity derivatives on exchanges in Chicago, New York, and London. Gas prices are tied to oil prices. Traditionally, payments for oil and other raw materials are carried out in dollars everywhere. You cannot refuse to use the dollar in payments if you wish. Anyone who switches to national currencies in such payments may put himself at a disadvantage in terms of competition compared to other suppliers of raw materials. Why? Because buyers may incur losses due to exchange rate differences when switching from the dollar to the national currency and vice versa. And, secondly, due to the fact that the national currencies of developing countries, such as Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Turkey, post-Soviet countries, are very volatile. As for the yuan, for example, it is a currency with a controlled exchange rate, essentially a non-market one, in the calculation of which you can very easily put yourself at a disadvantage.

Of course, it is possible to reduce the use of the dollar, and this can be done by force, but from the point of view of economic efficiency this decision will be irrational. In the future, yes, this may become possible, but in order to strengthen the position of the ruble and use it in international financial transactions, the national currency needs to be stabilized. And it is necessary that Russia’s share of nominal GDP in the world economy be around 5-6%. And for this, Russia must move to stable economic growth and grow a stable financial machine instead of a small and speculative one.

Boris Kheifetz, Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Yes, now many countries are trying to reduce the share of the dollar in international payments. Although, of course, it is worth admitting: this is very difficult to do. So far, a serious breakthrough has not been achieved, since the dollar is based on a very serious economy with very serious weight. An economy that plays a very important role in international trade. Now Turkey has announced its desire to reduce the share of the dollar in payments, and China is making certain attempts. But there are also risks: transaction losses when making payments in other currencies can be very significant.

As for Russia, we are working on this topic in the BRICS format, and our main partners in this direction are India and China. Another direction of reducing the use of the dollar in international payments is observed with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Community, here Russia is also making certain attempts. And yet we still need to take into account how foreign trade is distributed. Our main partner is the European Union, its share in foreign trade turnover is slightly less than 50%. Settlements with EU countries require euros, and it would be possible to switch to them. But this is on the one hand. See for yourself - now the dollar-euro ratio is 1.17, but it was 1.5, so the euro is weakening against the dollar. And is the transition to a single European currency beneficial for us in this situation?

In a word, there are prospects, many countries are considering this issue, but it will be resolved very, very gradually. I think that at least within the next 5 years there will be no serious progress in resolving this issue.

Sergey Suverov, Head of the Analytical Department of Management Company "BCS Savings"

Russia can switch to settlements in national currencies only with some countries and only in strictly defined cases. First of all, China and Turkey can be named on the list, although in the latter the lira has now devalued quite seriously. And in general, if we talk about payments for goods in national currencies, these countries or any others are ready to agree to this option due to political rather than economic reasons. At the same time, it will still not be possible to completely abandon the dollar; the dollar is the main world currency, accounting for up to 40% in international payments. Using other currencies when paying for goods may increase transaction costs, which ultimately makes such transactions less profitable.

If we talk about specific goods that can be paid for, for Russia these are energy resources and metals. We can take foreign currency, but not dollars, when delivering any products to us. However, in this situation it is quite difficult to determine its nomenclature. In fact, each such operation will be the fruit of personal agreements, and not of a strategic idea.

Igor Nikolaev, Director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis of the company "Financial and Accounting Consultants" (FBK)

I believe that the prospects for reducing the use of the dollar in foreign economic payments for supplied products are unimportant. Of course, you can want to stop using it. But in the end we are abandoning the world's strongest strengthening currency. Well, okay, let's sell our products for rubles! But this is a question for both sides. Where can the buyers of our goods get our rubles? Why do they need them? Just to make payments with us, take a currency that is weakening against the dollar? I wouldn't say that this is a cost-effective course of action. The Turks, for example, will demand that we pay in liras for their supplies. What does this mean, we specifically have to buy lira for them, which are weakening now? The same yuan - it is also weakening against the dollar. In a word, the idea is attractive, but economically today it is absolutely unprofitable.

It may be worth moving away from the dollar, but it is not necessary. These are just emotions. Look for yourself, we withdrew from American securities, reduced investments to $15 billion, and in December it was a little more than $100 billion. But this is stupidity - on the eve of the strong strengthening of the dollar, we “withdrew” from it. Calculate how much you lost? About a trillion rubles. If the dollar can still be replaced with something, then it should be comparable currencies. Probably the euro. But the situation will not change much; we are also under EU sanctions. Pound sterling, Swiss franc, Japanese yen. Yes, these currencies can be replaced, but they will only be suitable for payments for the products of these countries, and the trade turnover between us is not that great.

Nikita Maslennikov, head of the “Finance and Economics” department at the Institute of Contemporary Development

There is a trend towards a decrease in the use of the dollar, and yet there is a certain decrease in the role of the dollar in the global monetary system and payments. Today the dollar accounts for 40% of international payments and settlements and about 60% in the reserve positions of the world's central banks. And over the past 10-15 years, you can see a shift towards increasing the share of the euro, the share of the Chinese yuan is growing, although it still only accounts for about 2%. There are fairly stable indicators for the pound sterling and the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Canadian and Australian dollars. In a word, there is a trend, the question is: how long will it take, for example, to align the dollar with the euro and bring the yuan to third position? There is no definite answer today; the process may probably take at least 10-15 years. This figure also implies a possible decrease in the share of the dollar in international payments for Russia - 10-15 years.

By the way, the US itself is also not benefiting from the strengthening of the dollar. This is an additional burden on the trade balance, for example. As a result, we get trade wars and, in the future, serious economic instability. In the meantime, settlements in national currencies are more expensive in terms of transaction costs. And business chooses the dollar as the most convenient currency and relatively cheap compared to others. Yes, if we switch to other currencies when paying for our products, we will still have to take into account the dollar equivalent; it is no coincidence that First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov made a special reservation about this equivalent in one of his speeches. Moreover, to switch to such payments, a bilateral financial infrastructure is required.