The relevance of research

The fleet of specialized rolling stock certainly requires updating - now there is a demand for new dumcars and specialized tanks, however, it is obvious that they are intended for transporting a narrow range of goods, the volume of transport of specialized goods is several times less than the volume of transport of the same coal or ore. In addition, it is necessary to understand that the production of specialized rolling stock, due to its specifics, is more expensive.

Purpose of the study

analysis of the state of the freight railway rolling stock market, assessment of the volume and structure of the market, comparative analysis, as well as an analysis of the factors determining the dynamics of consumption of freight railway rolling stock in Russia, a forecast of industry behavior

Content

PART 1. REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

1.1.Main characteristics of the market

1.2. Dynamics of the volume of the freight railway rolling stock market in 2012-2016. Market volume

1.3.Assessment of factors influencing the market

1.5.Competition from substitute products

PART 2. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS ON THE MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

2.1.Largest players in the market

2.2.Market shares of the largest competitors

2.3.Profiles of the main players

PART 3. ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

3.1.Volume and dynamics of domestic production of freight railway rolling stock

3.2. Share of exports in the production of freight railway rolling stock

3.3. Segmentation of production of freight railway rolling stock by region

PART 4. ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE SUPPLY OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

4.1.Volume and dynamics of imports of freight railway rolling stock

4.2.Import structure

4.3.Volume and dynamics of exports of freight railway rolling stock

4.4.Export structure

PART 5. ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK VA

5.1.Dynamics of consumption volume of freight railway rolling stock

5.2.Analysis of the results of procurement tenders

PART 6. PRICE ANALYSIS

6.1.Average producer prices by Federal Districts

6.2.Average consumer prices by constituent entities of the Russian Federation

PART 7. ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE MARKET

PART 8. FORECAST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK UNTIL 2021

Excerpt from the study

Part 1. REVIEW OF THE RUSSIAN MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

1.1. Main characteristics of the market

The object of this study is freight railway rolling stock (car).

A freight car is a unit of rolling stock designed to transport goods. Another established name is freight car.

The freight wagon fleet consists of universal and special wagons of the following types:

In the early days of railroad transport, most freight cars were of just three basic types: box cars, gondola cars, and flat cars. Over time, specialized wagons appeared for transporting this or that cargo...

Diagram 1. Structure of production of freight railway cars in the Russian Federation in 2016

Based on axle size (number of wheel pairs), cars are divided into two-axle, four-axle, six-axle, eight-axle and multi-axle. The majority of the carriage fleet consists of four-axle carriages.

Based on the gauge, there are broad gauge (more than 1435 mm), normal (1435 mm) and narrow gauge (less than 1435 mm) cars. Cars in Russia, CIS countries, Finland and China are built for 1520 mm gauge; in the USA, Canada and most European countries - for 1435 mm gauge.

According to GuideMarket analysts, during 2012-2016. The share of imported products in the Russian market for freight railway cars has been constantly declining. If in 2012 imports amounted to ...% of the market, then already in 2016 - ...%. At the end of the 1st half of 2017, the share of imported railcars increased to ...%. Thus, at present, the demand for railway freight cars in Russia is satisfied mainly through domestic production.

1.2. Dynamics of the volume of the freight railway rolling stock market in 2012-2016. Market volume

Let's consider the dynamics of the volume and capacity of the market for freight railway cars in the Russian Federation.

Diagram 3. Volume dynamics Russian market freight railway cars 2012 - 6 months. 2017, billion rubles

According to the results of the 1st half of 2017, in the structure of revenue from the sale of freight railway cars, the position of ... Federal District weakened, the share decreased from 45% to 38%, as well as ... Federal District - from 12% to 9%. Accordingly, the share in total revenue of ... Federal District increased - from 16% to 23%, ... Federal District - from 9% to 12%. The shares of ... FO and ... FO remained at the same level.

Diagram 4. Revenue (net) from the sale of freight railway cars by federal districts for 2012 - 6 months. 2017, %

1.3. Assessment of factors influencing the market

Let's consider the main factors influencing the market for freight railway cars and, accordingly, demand.

1.4. Stage of the life cycle of the freight railway rolling stock market

The market for freight railway cars is at the maturity stage of its life cycle. This is evidenced by:...
1.5. Competition from substitute products

Recently, experts have been increasingly talking about the competitive pressure that road transport puts on rail transport in the freight transportation segment.

Part 2. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS ON THE MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

2.1. Major players in the market

Serial production of freight railway cars in the Russian Federation in 2016 was carried out at... enterprises...

2.2. Market shares of the largest competitors

According to the data of the NP “Association of Car Builders” and the assessment of GidMarket analysts, at the end of 2016, the largest player in the Russian market of freight railway cars is ... VSZ, its share amounted to ...% of the total sales volume.

Diagram 11. Shares of the largest competitors in the Russian market of freight railway cars in 2016

2.3. Profiles of the main players

Part 3. ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

3.1. Volume and dynamics of domestic production of freight railway rolling stock

Volumes of production of freight railway cars during 2012 - 6 months of 2017. undergo significant changes every year.

Diagram 12. Dynamics of production volumes of freight railway cars in the Russian Federation for 2012 - 6 months of 2017, pcs.

The total revenue volume of the TOP-6 largest manufacturers of freight railway cars in Russia is characterized by multidirectional dynamics throughout 2012-2016.

Diagram 13. Dynamics of the total revenue of the largest manufacturers (TOP-6) of freight railway cars in Russia, 2012-2016.

3.2. Share of exports in the production of freight railway rolling stock

During 2012-2016. There are multidirectional dynamics in the share of exports of freight railway cars in the volume of Russian production...

3.3. Segmentation of freight railway rolling stock production by region

3.3.1. Production by federal districts

According to Rosstat, at the end of 2016, almost half of the production volume of freight railway cars came from...

3.3.2. Production by constituent entities of the Russian Federation

At the end of 2016, the leaders in the production of freight railway cars were...

Part 4. ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN TRADE DELIVERY OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

4.1. Volume and dynamics of imports of freight railway rolling stock

According to the Federal Customs Service, during 2012-2015. ...

4.2. Import structure

At the end of 2016, the main importer of freight railway cars to Russia was...

4.3. Volume and dynamics of exports of freight railway rolling stock

During 2012 - 6 months of 2017. The export of freight railway cars from Russia in physical terms is characterized by multidirectional dynamics.

Diagram 19. Dynamics of exports of freight railway cars in physical terms, pcs.

4.4. Export structure

Based on the results of 2016, the largest recipient countries of Russian freight railway cars include... (42.4%) and... (29.5%).

Part 5. ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION OF FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

5.1. Dynamics of consumption volume of freight railway rolling stock

During the period under review, the most high level consumption of freight railway cars was recorded in 2012 - 74,380 units. Then in 2013

5.2. Analysis of the results of procurement tenders

For the period from 08/01/17 to 09/01/17. ... tenders for the purchase of freight railway cars were announced for a total amount of ... billion rubles.

Part 6. PRICE ANALYSIS

6.1. Average producer prices by Federal Districts

According to Rosstat, at the end of 2016, the highest prices for manufacturers of freight railway cars were established in ... Federal District (2500.8 thousand rubles / piece), the lowest - in ... Federal District (1817.5 thousand rubles / piece. ). The largest increase in prices in 2016 relative to 2015 was noted ... Federal District (+21.9%), the smallest - in the Northwestern Federal District (+2.7%).

6.2. Average consumer prices by constituent entities of the Russian Federation

In this section, consumer price refers to the wholesale price at which the company sells products to the customer.

Part 7. ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF THE MARKET

Part 8. FORECAST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET FOR FREIGHT RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK UNTIL 2021

List of charts

Diagram 1. Structure of production of freight railway cars in the Russian Federation in 2016

Diagram 2. The ratio of imported and domestic products on the Russian market of freight railway cars, %

Diagram 3. Dynamics of the volume of the Russian market of freight railway cars 2012 - 6 months. 2017, billion rubles

Diagram 4. Revenue (net) from the sale of freight railway cars by federal districts for 2012 - 6 months. 2017,

Diagram 5. Dynamics of Russian GDP, as a percentage of the previous year

Diagram 7. Dynamics of the population of the Russian Federation, million people

Diagram 8. Dynamics of the fleet of innovative freight cars in the Russian Federation, thousand units

The car-building industry is pleased with its regular upswings. According to data that has not yet been officially approved, November gave an increase in output volumes by 40% compared to November last year. At the same time, in terms of price, the month set another record. An ordinary gondola car reached 2.6 million rubles per unit, innovative – up to 3.2 million. The positions on special personnel are still unclear, but in general, operators note an intensification of the growing trend. The cargo owner market has gently sunk into oblivion. The time has come for the operator market. More precisely, a car builder and a regulator.

On the one hand, everything is simple: more loading means more wagons. Taking into account the subsidence of the industry in previous years, “double pollination” is now underway: to meet current needs and for what was not received in previous years. The question is how economically justified this increase in appetite is.

Let's give a weighted average calculation of the daily costs of maintaining one purchased car. According to seven operator companies with whom the correspondent spoke vgudok. com. So.

Daily costs for maintaining one gondola car:

TORs – 150 rubles

Administrative expenses – 300 rubles

Leasing/credit payments – 800-850 rubles

Scheduled repairs – 50 rubles

Total: daily cost of servicing one car is 1350-1400 rubles

This does not take into account the infrastructure component of the tariff. That is, the share in the amount of transportation costs that is taken JSC Russian Railways. For each car and for the empty run of this car.

Let us recall that the weighted average daily rate for attracting a gondola car, according to data IPEM, is about 1500 rubles per day. Plus, the Russian Railways tariff and “lubricant for drivers” (as one of our interlocutors wittily noted), which are paid by the consumer.

“Actually, this is so unimportant that it is implied by default,” noted another representative of the logistics company. – At the end of the season, “crushed stones” are ready to give and 3000 rubles per day, because then a fiasco will come for them.”

That is why today they are snapping up everything that can move on rails.

As a representative noted at one specialized meeting "Sberbank-leasing": “We have a certain pool of “old” cars for which companies were unable to pay and did not consider the terms of installment payment attractive. We will wait for normal offers. Demand today clearly outweighs supply. Objectively, policy is now dictated by the supplier, not the buyer. The price of the asset is growing and I have no doubt that in a couple of weeks it will be purchased.”

However financial expenses to service such purchases are clearly incommensurate with the benefits acquired. Even in conditions of very stimulating conditions of leasing companies. The low margin of transportation in the amount of up to 200 rubles/day, taking into account current expenses, hardly implies a return on investment. Although, as we have already said, the spot is so warm that 2-3 thousand rubles per day few people are surprised anymore. But this is a rare prize. The usual story is 1500-1700 rubles with a downward trend.

The cost of wagons continues to rise. Maybe manufacturers and buyers know something that we don’t?

So why was there such a stir around the carriages?

“There are persistent rumors on the network that some measures will be taken that could strangle the manufacturers of old carts,” the owner of a medium-sized operator company shares his fears. – For us, “innovator” is absolutely unattractive. And for most companies that do not operate on coal. Maybe, SUEK it generates profitability, but it is simply unrealistic for medium-sized companies to pay for the car. We don’t understand very well why they charge such a price.”

In order for such an understanding to come, the idea of ​​another cleansing of the market with simultaneous new preferences for buyers of innovative cars is increasingly being promoted in high ministerial offices.

While the procurement market is heating up with unreasonable expectations, the majority of participants surveyed opined that speculative rate rise will end in December-January.“In general, we have fulfilled our annual plans,” notes director of logistics large Ural enterprise. – Even if not without financial losses, I think we will close even January in full. We will see later, but for now there is no mood to maintain price overheating. I understand that carriages are becoming more and more expensive, but what does this have to do with us and our products?”

However, the cost of wagons continues to increase. Maybe manufacturers and buyers know something that we don’t?

Sergei Vetrov

Description

Objectives of the study: analysis of competition in the Russian railway rolling stock market, structured description, comparative analysis and ranking of operational and financial indicators of the 600 largest owners and operators of mainline freight railway rolling stock in Russia.

We recommend: for a more in-depth analysis of the main segments of the transportation market and forecasting its development, purchase the study "Transport Industry of Russia. Results of 2018." For operational daily or weekly monitoring of events in the transport sector, it is advisable to use the thematic news service: “Railway transport of the Russian Federation” and “Railway mechanical engineering of the Russian Federation and neighboring countries”.

Areas of use of research results: analysis of market conditions, search for clients and partners, marketing planning, analysis of competitors' activities.

Time frame of the study: results of 2018 (operational and financial indicators), trends of 2019 (events and materials in business references)

Duration of the study: March-May 2019 (the previous version was released in 2018).

Key market parameters:

The Database contains data on 492 owners of Russian rolling stock, which account for 98% of the freight railway rolling stock in Russia as of January 1, 2019, including:

• 233 owner gondola cars, owning 98% size of Russia's park (530.7 thousand units)
• 223 owners tanks, owning 99% size of Russia's park (247.8 thousand units)
• 164 owners covered wagons, owning 94% size of Russia's park (52.5 thousand units)
• 138 owner platforms, owning 92% size of Russia's park (76.7 thousand units)
• 106 owners fitting platforms, owning 96% size of Russia's park (57.2 thousand units)
• 82 owners cement tankers, owning 85% size of Russia's park (18 thousand units)
• 27 owners car carriers, owning 73% size of Russia's park (3 thousand units)
• 58 owner grain trucks, owning 99% size of Russia's park (50 thousand units)
• 60 owner mineral carriers, owning 93% size of Russia's park (28.7 thousand units)

The database contains data by 480 rolling stock operators, which account for 96% fleet of freight railway rolling stock in Russia as of January 1, 2019, including:

• 219 operator gondola cars, managers 90% park of Russia (482.7 thousand units)
• 188 operators tanks, owning 103% park of Russia (250.4 thousand units)
• 152 operator covered wagons, managers 99,9% park of Russia (60 thousand units)
• 118 operators platforms, managers 95% park of Russia (79 thousand units)
• 112 operators fitting platforms, managers 95% park of Russia (56.5 thousand units)
• 71 operators cement tankers, managers 99% park of Russia (22 thousand units)
• 18 operator car carriers, managers 62% park of Russia (2.5 thousand units)
• 51 operator grain trucks, managers 100% park of Russia (more than 50 thousand units)
• 43 operators mineral carriers, managers 100% park of Russia (more than 30 thousand units)

Benefits of the study:

• Rating of the largest operators and operating leasing companies at the end of 2018
• Database of owners and operators of Russian rolling stock as of January 1, 2019
• Analysis of transportation and railcar fleet by largest owners and operators.
• Database of the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia by type at the end of 2018.
• Database of the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia by type of cars based on the results of 2018.

Resources expended: 800 man-days (about 2 million rubles).

Objectives and structure of the study by sections.

The database “600 largest owners and operators of mainline rolling stock in Russia, CIS countries and neighboring countries” includes five sections:

The Database section includes the TOP-30 rating of the largest operators on the Russian rolling stock market. The INFOLine agency analyzed information on the operating results of the 30 largest railway rolling stock operators, which at the end of 2018 accounted for 80% of the managed fleet, 66% of the owned fleet, taking into account financial leasing, and 77% of freight transportation by rail in Russia. In addition to fleet and transportation indicators, companies were ranked by revenue amount from operating rolling stock. Except quantitative indicators, on which the Ratings were compiled, were also calculated performance indicators activities of operators, including technological (the total volume of cargo transported per year in one car) and financial (the ratio of revenue to the number of fleet under management and to the total volume of cargo transportation).

The Database section includes structured information about the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia. This section Bases include contact information(company name, legal form, actual address, telephone, fax, E-mail, website, full name and position of the head of the company, full name and position of the head of the transport department - for cargo-owning companies), as well as information on the number of rolling stock owned, owned, taking into account financial leasing and managed by the company on January 1, 2019 by types of cars: covered cars, platforms, gondola cars, tanks, mineral hoppers, cement hoppers, grain hoppers, fitting platforms, car carriers and other cars. Number of cars per January 1, 2019 in management is calculated as the sum of the number of own cars not leased and the number of cars leased from other owners. The unique approach to calculating the fleet of companies (both managed and owned) given in this database is that INFOLine conducts a quarterly survey of about 100 largest owners and operators of rolling stock, which account for more than 70% of the entire fleet, due to which the data is more correct than in other sources.

The Base section describes the state of the market for rail freight transportation and railway rolling stock in Russia, including: freight turnover, traffic volume, fleet structure, average age of rolling stock, dynamics of write-offs and purchases of the rolling stock.

The Database section contains business information on the largest rolling stock operators in Russia, including the history of development, operational and financial indicators, fleet dynamics in ownership and management, transportation volumes and cargo turnover for 2013-2018, investment projects, procurement of rolling stock, mergers and acquisitions, resignations and appointments, corporate strategies, contacts.

Section V. Business information on largest companies engaged in operational leasing in Russia

The Database section includes a rating of the largest operating leasing companies on the Russian rolling stock market. The section provides business information on the largest operating leasing companies in Russia, including the history of development, operational and financial indicators, as well as information about the client base (lessees).

Section VI. Database of the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia for 9 types of rolling stock

The Database section includes tables with information on the largest owners and operators of 9 types of cars, in particular: gondola cars, tanks, platforms, covered cars, grain carriers, fitting platforms, mineral carriers, cement tankers, pellet carriers, automobile carriers and other types of cars. The information provided in the section includes contact details of companies (actual address, telephone, fax, e-mail, web address, full name of the head and full name of the head of the transport department - for cargo owners) and data on park in ownership, ownership taking into account financial leasing and management as of January 1, 2019.

Expand

Content

Section II. Database of 600 owners and operators of Russian rolling stock

2.1. Database of the largest rolling stock operators in Russia

2.2. Database of the largest owners of rolling stock in Russia, taking into account financial leasing

2.3. Database of the largest owners of rolling stock in Russia excluding financial leasing

Section III. Short review Russian rolling stock market

3.1 State of the rail freight market

Freight turnover, loading volume and transportation volume in Russia

Loading trends by main types of cargo

3.2 State of the freight railway rolling stock market

State of the freight rolling stock fleet in Russia

Procurement and decommissioning of rolling stock in Russia

State regulation of service life and implementation of innovative cars

Section IV. Business information on the largest operators in Russia

Subsidiaries of JSC Russian Railways

"United Transport and Logistics Company"

"Transcontainer", PJSC

"RZD Logistics", JSC

"Federal Freight Company", JSC

« RailTransAuto», JSC

HoldingUniversal Cargo Logistics Holding

« First cargo company», JSC

HoldingGlobaltrans Investment, PLC

Holding "Neftetransservice", JSC

GC "RTK"

"Rusagrotrans", JSC

"Freight Company", LLC

"TransLes", LLC

JSC "First Heavy Weight Company"

HC "Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company"

Transport group "FESCO"

GC "Rail Garant"

Transoil, LLC

"SUEK", JSC

Freight company Novotrans, LLC

Gazpromtrans, LLC

"Modum-Trans", LLC (formerly "UVZ-Logistic", LLC)

"RAILGO", LLC (formerly "ISR Trans", LLC, "TEK "Eurotrans", LLC)

"Sovfracht-Sovmortrans", GC

"RN-Trans", JSC

"LUKoil-Trans", LLC

"Pipe Freight Company", JSC

"Eurosib SPb-transport systems", CJSC

"VM-Trans", LLC

Uralkali, PJSC

Mechel-Trans, LLC

"Spetsenergotrans", JSC

JSC Apatit (formerly Phosagro-trans, LLC)

MHC EuroChem, JSC

"SIBUR-Trans", JSC

"Petrochemical Transport Company", LLC

"URALCHEM-TRANS", LLC

GC "Maximum"

GC "Sodrugestvo"

Logistics1520, LLC

"Transport Technologies", LLC

"First Industrial Operator", LLC

Far Eastern Transport Group, JSC

"Kuzbasstranscement", LLC

"TalTEK Trans", JSC

"Fintrans GL", LLC

"Refservis", JSC

Acron-Trans JSC

"Transport and logistics company", LLC

"Tehnotrans", LLC

"Lokotrans", JSC

"Alcon" LLC

"System Transport Service", LLC

GC "Apparel", LLC

GC "Delo"

5.2 Business certificates of companies engaged in operational leasing of rolling stock

Brunswick Rail Limited

"NPK "United Carriage Company", PJSC

"Universal Container Company 1520", LLC

Leasing company "Rail1520"

Management Company "RailTransHolding", LLC

"RTH-Logistic", JSC

"SG-trans", JSC

"Transfin-M", PJSC

"TFM-Operator", LLC

"TFM-Trans", JSC

Section VI. Database of the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia by type of rolling stock

6.1. Largest owners and operators of gondola cars

6.2. Largest owners and operators of tank cars

6.3. Largest owners and operators of boxcars

6.4. Major platform owners and operators

6.5. The largest owners and operators of fitting platforms

6.6. Largest owners and operators of cement hopper trucks

6.7. Largest owners and operators of grain hoppers

6.8. Largest owners and operators of mineral hoppers

6.9. Largest owners and operators of car carriers

Expand

Tables

Tables

• Rank rating of TOP-30 rolling stock operators at the end of 2018
• Rating of the largest operators by fleet under management in 2014-2017. and 2018, thousand units. 5
• Rating of the largest rolling stock operators by fleet size owned (including financial leasing) at the end of the period 2014-2018, thousand units.
• Rating of operators by volume of freight traffic in 2014-2018, million tons
• Rating of operators in terms of transportation to fleet management in 2014-2018,
• Rating of operators by cargo turnover in 2014-2017 and 2018, billion t-km
• Rating of operators in relation to freight turnover to fleet under management in 2014-2018, million t-km per car per year
• Rating of operators by gross revenue (indicating whether the tariff of JSC Russian Railways is included or not) in 2014-2018, billion rubles. without VAT

Charts

• Dynamics of the market share of the largest rolling stock operators in management in 2013-2018
• Dynamics of the share of the largest operators in the structure of the Russian fleet (including financial leasing) in 2013-2018, %
• Dynamics of the share of freight traffic of the largest rolling stock operators in 2013-2018, %
• Dynamics of the share of freight turnover of the largest rolling stock operators in 2013-2018, %

Section III. Overview of the Russian rolling stock market

• Volume of cargo loading by rail in the first and fourth quarters of 2015-2018, million tons
• Volume of loading of main types of cargo by rail in 2016, million tons
• Volume of loading of main types of cargo by rail in 2017-2018, million tons
• Volume of freight transported by rail in the first and fourth quarters of 2015-2018, million tons
• Dynamics of production and freight rail transportation in 2017-2018, %
• Quarterly dynamics of production volumes, freight base of railway transport and cargo loading in 2018 by type economic activity,% by 2017
• Government resolutions on state support for railcar production 2009-2018.

• Volume of loading on Russian railway transport in 2013-2018
• Volume of loading on Russian railway transport in the I-IV quarters of 2013-2018.
• Freight turnover of Russian railway transport in 2013-2018
• Volume of cargo transportation by rail in Russia in 2013-2018
• Dynamics of railway freight turnover in Russia in 2013-2018, billion t-km
• Structure of railway transport freight turnover in Russia in 2013-2018, %
• Freight turnover of the main types of cargo on railway transport in Russia in the I-IV quarters of 2013-2018, billion t-km
• Dynamics of transportation of main types of cargo by rail in Russia in 2013-2018, million tons
• Structure of transportation of main types of cargo by rail in Russia in 2013-2018, %
• Figure 34. Dynamics of transportation of main types of cargo by rail in Russia by month in 2014-2018, million tons
• Dynamics of transportation and cargo turnover of the main types of cargo for 2018 compared to 2017,%
• Dynamics of railway cargo transportation in 2013-2018. by profitability segment, million tons
• Structure of railway cargo transportation in 2013 -2018 by profitability segment, %
• Dynamics of the index of entrepreneurial confidence in the mining sector for 2013-2018.
• Dynamics of the index of entrepreneurial confidence in the manufacturing sector for 2013-2018.
• Structure of cargo loading on Russian railway transport by type of wagon in 2013-2018, million tons
• Dynamics of freight turnover in Russian railway transport by type of car in 2013-2018, billion t-km
• Structure of freight turnover in Russian railway transport by type of wagon in 2013-2017, %
• Dynamics of the volume of freight transportation by railway transport by type of wagon in Russia in 2013-2018,
• Structure of freight transportation by rail by type of wagon in Russia in 2013-2018, %
• Volume of cargo transportation by rail by type of wagon in Russia
• in the I-IV quarters of 2013-2018, million tons
• Freight turnover of gondola cars in Russia in the first and fourth quarters of 2013-2018. by type of cargo, billion t-km
• Volume of cargo transportation by rail in gondola cars in Russia in the first and fourth quarters of 2013-2018. by type of cargo, million tons
• Structure of tank car turnover by type of cargo in Russia in the first and fourth quarters of 2013-2018, billion t-km
• The volume of cargo transportation by rail in tanks in Russia in the 1st-4th quarter. 2013-2018, million tons
• Average distance of cargo transportation by rail in Russia in the 1st-4th quarter. 2013-2018, km
• Average distance of cargo transportation by rail by type of wagon in 2013-2018, km
• Dynamics of the rolling stock fleet in the USSR in 1988 and in Russia 1993-2018, thousand units at the end of the period (by year - census, 2013-2018 - number base)
• Structure of the rolling stock fleet by type as of January 1, 2018, %
• Structure of the rolling stock fleet by type as of January 1, 2019, %
• Dynamics of the average age of the rolling stock fleet in Russia in 2000-2018, years at the end of the period
• Dynamics of decommissioning and purchases of rolling stock in Russia in 1994-2018, thousand units
• Dynamics of procurement of rolling stock in Russia in 2015-2018, thousand units
• Dynamics of write-off of freight cars in Russia in 2015-2018, thousand units

Section IV. Business information on the largest operators in Russia

• Share capital structure as of the beginning of 2019
• Procurement procedures for the supply and rental of rolling stock in 2017-2018
• Volume of transportation of loaded and empty containers for 2017-2018.
• The largest railcar tenants as of 01/01/2019
• Dynamics of financial indicators
• Report on financial results
• Tenders for the purchase of rolling stock
• Information on the amount of investment in 2014-2018.

• Park structure under company management as of January 1, 2019,%;
• Structure of the park owned by the company as of January 1, 2019,%;
• Dynamics of the rolling stock fleet under management and ownership (including financial leasing) of the company in 2013-2018, thousand units.
• Dynamics of the company's cargo transportation volume in 2003-2018.

Section V. Business information on the largest operating leasing companies in Russia

For all companies the following are given:

• Rating of the largest leasing companies by fleet volume transferred under operating lease as of the end of the year (excluding fleet transferred under operating lease to affiliated companies).
• Renters of carriages as of January 1, 2019

• Dynamics of the company's fleet by main types of cars in 2013-2018, thousand units.
• Structure of the company's leasing fleet by type of wagon as of January 1, 2019, %
• Financial results report for 2013-2018, million rubles (according to IFRS)

Section VI. Database of the largest owners and operators of rolling stock in Russia by type of rolling stock

• The largest owners and operators of gondola cars as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of tanks as of January 1, 2019
• Largest owners and operators of covered wagons as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of platforms as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of fitting platforms as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of cement hopper trucks as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of grain hopper trucks as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of mineral hoppers as of January 1, 2019
• The largest owners and operators of car carriers as of January 1, 2019

In Russia, the production of innovative railcars is being reduced. According to Rosstat, over the eight months of this year, their share in total output decreased from 58 to 42%. The demand for standard cars is growing: during this time, the same number of them was produced as in the entire 2017. In fact, there has been a reversal of the trend: if in previous years it was innovative cars that dominated sales, now only the United Carriage Company (UWC) continues to produce them from large manufacturers. Uralvagonzavod and Altaivagon, for various reasons, focused on the production of standard cars.

Market participants - operator companies, shippers, car manufacturers and government authorities - do not have a common opinion on economic efficiency innovative cars and the need for preferences that their manufacturers and owners receive. In this case, preferences mean subsidies provided to buyers of innovative rolling stock and a discount on empty mileage tariffs. It was this that became the main stumbling block. Since the beginning of October, a discussion has begun on this issue again, the end of which may be reached as early as the beginning of December.

Those who leave earlier get a discount

One of the main features of the innovative car is its increased load capacity: in contrast to the standard one, where the axle load is 23.5 ton-force (tf), this figure is 25 tf. Accordingly, due to this, as well as the increased volume of the body, the car can carry more cargo - not 69, but 75 tons. The first high-capacity carriage appeared on the Russian railway network in 2009. A request for new generation cars came from Russian Railways. The carrier needed such cars - this allows them to form heavy trains and transport more cargo at a time, thereby saving resources and reducing the load on the network.

Mass production of cars with increased load capacity and improved characteristics began in 2012, when the Tikhvin Car Building Plant, built from scratch (part of UWC), was launched. The investor was the ICT group Alexandra Nesis. The construction of a modern full-cycle enterprise for the production of carriages cost one and a half billion dollars. The plant was built mainly with borrowed money, a significant part of which - $330 million - was provided by Vnesheconombank. The state did not leave the issue aside and subsequently took a number of steps aimed at supporting the production of innovative cars.

Today, more than a dozen companies are engaged in the production of freight cars in Russia, the largest in terms of volume are UWC, Uralvagonzavod (part of Rostec), Altaivagon (HC Siberian Business Union), RM-Rail (Russian Machines). But not everyone has the right to preferences. Their main recipients are those who have achieved recognition of their cars as innovative: UWC, Uralvagonzavod and Altaivagon.

Each manufacturer has taken its own path to recognizing its carriage as innovative. UWC did this faster and easier than anyone else: some market participants believe that the very criteria for “innovation” were developed based on the technical characteristics of the cars of the Tikhvin plant. Well, or the plant was being built, and the cars were designed according to these criteria - everyone looks at the situation from an angle favorable to him.

One way or another, certain models of cars produced by the Tikhvin plant were the first to receive a discount on empty mileage. The discount on empty mileage was justified by the fact that innovative cars have less impact on railway tracks. It should be noted that at the time of granting this discount, in 2013, the state had not defined clear criteria for innovation, and there were no evidence-based studies on the more gentle impact of new cars on the network. All this aroused suspicion among market participants that the state was acting selectively when distributing “carrots”. Uralvagonzavod had to seek recognition of its cars as innovative in order to also receive a discount on empty mileage. He achieved it in 2014, but in smaller size. “Altaivagon” followed the path of UVZ, since at that moment it produced cars on a bogie, which it produced under license from the Ural plant. The discount ranges from 11 to 27% of the empty mileage tariff, depending on the transportation distance and car model. Standard cars with an axle load of less than 25 tf do not have such a discount at all.

Affectionate calves

In 2014 and 2015, the state compensated for losses in income of leasing companies that provided their customers with innovative cars at a discount. Over two years, the state spent almost five billion rubles on this. Since 2016, the scheme has been changed: support was provided both directly to the manufacturers themselves (three billion rubles) and to buyers - they received subsidies for the purchase of cars (seven billion rubles). True, it turned out that the main buyers - and recipients of subsidies - were companies controlled by the main manufacturers of cars, which then transferred them further at market value. Thus, the Tikhvin plant sold its cars to the leasing company Rail1520, and Uralvagonzavod sold its cars to UVZ-Logistic. Well, what is not prohibited is permitted. However, in 2017, the state limited its support measures to subsidies to buyers.

In general, over five years, about 20 billion rubles were spent from the budget to support carriage manufacturers and their clients. This year, budget subsidies to stimulate the purchase of innovative railcars will amount to two billion rubles.

Another important action that was taken to stimulate sales of innovative cars was to complicate the procedure for extending the service life of cars in 2015, and in 2016 it was completely prohibited to extend the service life. As a result, about 220 thousand cars were written off in 2015–2016. And during the same period, only a little less than 60 thousand new cars were purchased - both standard and innovative. So the number of freight cars on the general network railways by the end of 2016 it decreased by 15%, to just over a million pieces. Shortfalls have returned to the industry. Rental and transportation rates have increased.

In 2017, due to the increasing shortage, about 60 thousand more cars were purchased. In the fleet of gondola cars - the most common rolling stock - the share of modern ones is close to 20%, and the average age of cars has become one of the youngest in the world - 12.9 years. For comparison: in the USA the average age of cars is 23.7 years, in Europe - 27 years.

Everyone is now paying for such a rapid renewal of the wagon fleet - buyers spent more than 320 billion rubles on the purchase of wagons in 2015–2017 and are returning and will return this money by increasing the fee for providing rolling stock to shippers.

By the middle of this year, the fleet of cars in Russia had grown to 1.09 million units, still falling short of the number that was on the network before the mass write-off - 1.23 million. And this despite the fact that the need for cargo transportation continues to grow. So more cars will be purchased, and the total amount of investment in expanding the fleet for 2018 is projected at about 200 billion rubles.

Expensive and even more expensive

Such a large-scale retirement of cars and the need to quickly replace them with new ones led to a sharp increase in demand, and with it prices for rolling stock.

And this is, perhaps, one of the main complaints against public policy in terms of support for the car building industry from car buyers and shippers, who ultimately bear the main financial burden of supporting car manufacturers.

Thus, at a recent thematic conference*, a representative of the Neftetransservice company (operates a fleet of 35.2 thousand gondola cars and 28.65 thousand tanks) Sergey Sturov drew the attention of the assembled colleagues to the fact that in 2017 the average ratio of the price of an innovative gondola car to the price of a standard car was 1.14, and now it is 1.3. If in January 2017 a standard gondola car cost 2.15 million rubles, and an innovative one - 2.45, now the price of the first has increased to 3 million, and the second - to 3.9 million rubles.

“Yes, the price of a standard car is growing,” noted Mr. Sturov, “but the price of an innovative one is growing much more significantly. I believe that the current price ratio of innovative and standard cars is the maximum and reflects the amount of the bonus that a potential buyer is willing to pay. In my opinion, exceeding this value will only increase interest in standard models of gondola cars.”

The sharp rise in prices for innovative railcars is not considered justified even by companies directly related to their production. Thus, a representative of the SDS-Mash Holding Company (manages the Altaivagon plant) Stanislav Zolotarev, noting the growth in railcar production in Russia - plus 24.8% in the nine months of this year compared to the same period last year, emphasizes that the increase is due precisely to the production of standard railcars.

“According to all the laws of economics, taking into account economies of scale, growth in production volumes and other factors, the cost of innovative cars should decrease,” says Mr. Zolotarev, “However, the price of innovative gondola cars has increased by 50 percent since 2016. This would not have happened if innovative cars had not had preferences in production, purchase and tariff. In pursuit of these preferences, car-building factories went into debt. In order to give away this expensive money in a situation where the price of metal and energy is rising, they need to constantly raise prices for their products. And the increase in prices for innovative cars became a driver for increasing prices for conventional cars. In my opinion, the price of an innovative car should be the same as a serial one, and due to its improved technical characteristics it should sell itself.”

The massive write-off of cars had another delayed effect - a sharp increase in the price of railway wheelsets and other components.

“Until recently, there was a significant decline in the need for spare parts, and this decline was due, among other things, to the presence of a large number of used spare parts from “cut-up” cars,” Deputy General Director for Civil Products of Uralvagonzavod told Expert. Boris Myagkov. “And taking into account the fact that the workload of car-building enterprises was insufficient, metallurgical plants producing components for rolling stock were also only 20–30 percent loaded. Then both the production volumes of wagons and the need for spare parts for repairs increased sharply. As a result, both car building and operation required many times more volumes of spare parts and components. This also led to the fact that the price of some components increased sharply. Next comes the price of the carriage.”

*“Market of railway rolling stock and operator services”, organized by the company “Industrial Cargo”.

More luck, but is it cheaper?

An innovative gondola car can carry a maximum of 10% more cargo than a standard one. This does not explain the difference of a third of the price. But manufacturers justify the higher cost of the innovative car by using expensive components in its production, the use of which allows them to reduce maintenance costs. Thus, UWC declares that the overhaul life of its gondola cars from construction to the first depot repair is eight years or a million kilometers, while for standard cars these figures are three years and 210 thousand kilometers. According to the company’s calculations, maintaining a gondola car produced at the Tikhvin plant in good condition will cost the owner 875 thousand rubles per million kilometers. A typical car will cover the same distance with a large number of repairs and a total cost of 1.78 million rubles. The difference is significant.

However, the practice of operating innovative cars shows, as some market participants claim, that after several years of operation, the number of uncouplings of these cars for repairs approaches the number of uncouplings of a standard car. In addition, innovative cars are a relatively new phenomenon for the Russian market; their repair service is not yet as developed as the service for standard cars.

“Innovative cars have their own spare parts,” explains the executive director of the Union of Railway Operators (SOZHT) Alexey Druzhinin, - and there are often cases when a car sits for fifty to sixty days at some distant station waiting for the necessary spare part to arrive. In principle, innovative cars are more reliable. But imagine that your taxi fleet includes a Hyundai Solaris and a Maybach. Of course, the Maybach is better than the Hyundai, but it also costs a decent amount. The cost of transportation on it will be quite high. And it can also get into an accident, and it will be very expensive to repair it. Likewise, an innovative car can get caught in a derailment, and even if it doesn’t fold, according to the standards, all castings on it must be replaced.”

Give me some coal!

Another problem that all market participants note is that innovative rolling stock is mostly used to transport the same cargo along the same routes - coal for export to the eastern or northwestern ports of Russia. We are talking about gondola cars, which account for 85% of the total fleet of innovative cars (95 thousand out of 112 thousand), and they are the ones that are most in demand on the market, unlike other types of innovative cars.

“Innovative fitting platforms are not in demand, since a large number of “light” cargoes are transported in containers, requiring a large loading volume rather than a carrying capacity, which causes low demand for innovative cars,” says Alexander Slobodyanik, Head of the Freight Transportation Research Department at the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies (IPEM). “Improved characteristics of the carrying capacity of innovative gas tanks when transporting liquefied gases are not in demand on the market due to their low density.”

It is profitable to transport the already mentioned coal in gondola cars, and grain, chemical and mineral fertilizers with high bulk density in innovative grain carriers, notes Alexander Slobodyanik. Transportation of coal in innovative cars, in addition to their increased carrying capacity, is primarily advantageous because the discount on empty mileage is the highest here due to the large transportation distance. Accordingly, it is not profitable to take passing cargo on the way back - this very discount is lost. "Of course, with Far East There’s not much to bring,” says Alexey Druzhinin. - However, in the case of transporting coal in the northwest direction, on the way back it would be possible to take crushed stone in Karelia, but innovative cars fly past Karelia empty. They turned into coal carriers; this rolling stock can now hardly be called universal.”

Ninety percent of the innovative gondola cars available on the network are used for coal transportation. At the same time, if we take the entire fleet of innovative cars, then, according to the information and analytical agency INFOLine, the share of coal in the total volume of transportation is gradually decreasing, at the end of 2018 it will be less than 75% and will continue to decline by several percentage points per year.

According to UWC, the share of transportation of metallurgical cargo (ore, scrap, coke, metal products, etc.) in cars with an axle load of 25 t is gradually increasing. Since 2016, it has increased from 2.9 to 5.1%. The fact is that when tariffing the transportation of rolled metal products, a minimum weight norm applies, which is equal to the carrying capacity of the car. That is, by loading a slab weighing 36 tons into a standard wagon (23.5 tf), the shipper actually paid for 69 tons of the wagon's nominal carrying capacity. In the case of models with increased load capacity (25 tf), loading increases to 72 tons (two slabs) with a charged load capacity of 75 tons. As a result, the loaded tariff per ton of metal is reduced by almost half. Thanks to this, over the past three years, the volume of transportation of metallurgical cargo in high-capacity railcars has tripled and by the end of 2018 will amount to 11–12 million tons.

However, in comparison with the transportation of the same coal, this is not so much: export transportation of coal alone this year will amount to more than 200 million tons.

Of course, coal companies are interested in maintaining the empty mileage discount, because ultimately it makes transportation cheaper for the shipper. One of the key players in the coal transportation market is the First Heavy Haul Company (PTK), part of the Industrial Investors group. Sergei Generalov. In a comment for Expert, a representative of PTK noted that “a special tariff scheme reduces the total cost of transportation in new generation cars (taking into account the operator’s rate) to the standard level. Its cancellation will not lead to changes in logistics, and an increase in the tariff burden will fall on the shoulders of shippers.”

The empty mileage discount for innovative railcars irritates some market participants: they believe that it has outlived its usefulness as a measure to stimulate demand for innovative railcars, leads to financial losses for Russian Railways, and the company reimburses them at the expense of all other shippers. By the way, back in 2015, the FAS initiated a case to cancel the discount, and although it was terminated on formal grounds (the FTS was abolished, and its functions were transferred to the FAS itself), the service then noted that the discount was contrary to the competition law.

The FAS returned to this issue in September of this year, again proposing to cancel the empty mileage discount for innovative cars as discriminatory in relation to other types of rolling stock. The Union of Railway Operators also spoke out for the abolition of discounts, especially noting that in this case Russian Railways' revenue would increase by eight billion rubles a year.

For the same rake

December twenty-ninth, 2017 Dmitry Medvedev signed decree number 2991. This document limited the growth rate of tariffs for Russian Railways services until 2025. According to the document, the tariff for the transportation of goods by public rail transport could increase by the inflation rate minus 0.1 percentage points per year, and no more. This decision was the result of lengthy consultations with market participants and authorities. For shippers, fixing the growth rate of one of the most important components of the cost of rail transportation allows them to more accurately plan transportation-related costs. In accordance with this order, Russian Railways updated its long-term development program (LDP) until 2025 in the summer.

However, already in mid-October, before a meeting at which the government planned to consider the Russian Railways program, the monopoly proposed to reconsider the approach to setting tariffs for its services. Thus, it was announced that it was necessary to maintain the export tariff surcharge of eight percent, which was supposed to be removed completely from next year, to increase empty mileage tariffs for all gondola cars (totalling 63 billion rubles) and to take a number of other steps to increase the cost of transportation. It is clear that these proposals caused a negative reaction from shippers, especially those who export their products in significant volumes. First of all, these are coal miners, metallurgists, and fertilizer producers. For industry as a whole, the introduction of an eight percent surcharge on exports will cost 252.6 billion rubles.

On the eve of a meeting with Medvedev, at which a new version of the Russian Railways DPR was to be discussed, the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak wrote a letter to the Deputy Prime Minister responsible for transport Maxim Akimov, who also heads the board of directors of Russian Railways. In it, he directly indicated that these proposals contradict previously adopted government decisions and agreements with business; the Ministry of Energy does not support Russian Railways’ initiatives and believes that “their implementation jeopardizes the implementation of long-term tariff policy on railway transport." In addition, according to the minister, “an unplanned increase in transport costs will have a significant negative impact on the implementation of already launched or planned investment projects fuel and energy companies."

Regarding the tariff for empty mileage, in his letter to the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Presidium of the Council of the Union of Railway Operators Igor Romashov wrote that “the very raising of the issue of additional indexation of empty run of gondola cars, in which standard cars used to provide social services must bear an additional tariff burden, is anti-state, taking into account the true preconditions for additional indexation of tariffs (forming a source of investment for the development of export coal routes) "

The final decision on the export premium of eight percent to the tariff, and on the fate of the tariff on empty mileage: the discount for innovative cars will be cancelled, everything will remain as is, or tariffs will be raised for everyone while maintaining existing preferences - can be made on December 1. By this date, Russian Railways must finalize its long-term development program and determine the sources of its financing.

However, information has already been leaked that Dmitry Medvedev agreed with the opinion of lobbyists from car manufacturers: the discount on empty mileage for innovative cars must be preserved. The head of Rostec addressed this to the Prime Minister Sergey Chemezov and received a “I agree” visa. Since September of this year, Uralvagonzavod has not produced innovative rolling stock, since its facilities are busy fulfilling an order for the supply of a large batch of standard cars to one of its clients. Upon completion, UVZ managers promise to return to the production of innovative cars. And they consider maintaining a tariff discount an important argument in favor of these products for their customers. “If this tariff scheme is abolished, then those industries that use the innovative car will not be able to achieve the full economic effects,” explains Boris Myagkov. - Why will it be necessary to buy - at a higher price - cars that use various innovative technical solutions that provide improved characteristics of this car, if the effect of their use will not be visible? Therefore, the demand for innovative cars in the event of the abolition of these tariff schemes may almost completely disappear, and we will all remain on the development car of the thirties of the last century. Accordingly, in the future, when the fleet reaches a surplus state, the demand for cars will fall completely. Taking into account the fact that until 2025 the retirement of rolling stock in terms of service life is minimal, we will see a shutdown of the entire car-building industry for four to five years. As a result, Russia risks completely losing its competencies in the production of innovative railcars.” However, the operators themselves attribute the drop in demand not only and not so much to the possible cancellation of discounts, but to a sudden increase in prices for cars and, as a consequence, to a change in their payback periods.

So the question of a general indexation of the tariff for empty mileage remains open. For all. By the way, if this happens, then the discrimination that the FAS is talking about will only intensify: if the tariff for empty mileage is increased and the discount for innovative cars is maintained, it turns out that the latter become even more profitable - the gap in the tariff between them and standard cars increases. Simple arithmetic.

At the same time, by the same date - December 1 - the FAS must submit a report to the president Vladimir Putin based on the results of monitoring prices for cars and services for their provision.

“The introduction of such monitoring is extremely important, since the car supply market is highly volatile,” believes CEO IPEM Yuri Sahakyan. - For example, from January 2017 to September 2018, rates for the provision of gondola cars increased by more than 70 percent, to 2,300 rubles per car per day. Similar trends are observed for other types of cars.”

It is possible that based on the results of this monitoring and the report to the President, far-reaching conclusions can be drawn both in terms of supporting car manufacturers, whose product prices are excessively high, and in terms of regulating the market for the provision of rolling stock.

Here, the consequence may be regulation of the market for operator services - the state will set the size of rental rates for cars. Thus, one of the main achievements of the Ministry of Railways reform will be buried - the introduction of market relations in terms of the provision of rolling stock.

As for carriage building, it is obvious that innovative carriage and heavy-duty movement are necessary. Another thing is at what pace and in what ways they make their way along the way and what the consequences of this are. In other countries, this process took thirty years or more, but in our country it was forced without calculating all the possible consequences.

Currently, active testing of a car with an axle load of 27 tf is underway.

These cars will also need to make room in the sun, that is, on the railway networks. Considering that the demand for cars with increased axle loads is falling, the temptation once again arises to squeeze some with state support to the detriment of all others. Moreover, the main producers are more important to the state than everyone else. UVZ is under Rostec, and the United Carriage Company, in the course of a series of upheavals, escaped the control of the ICT group, and now its largest shareholder is the structures of Otkrytie Bank, which itself is under the control of the Central Bank. So now the state has two carriage-building enterprises and their starting position is better than that of all other participants. Shall we repeat it?

In 2015, the volume of write-offs amounted to more than 100 thousand cars, this year they can grow 1.5 times - and this does not take into account the ban on the admission of cars with an extended service life from 01/01/2016. In the 2nd quarter of 2016, the volumes write-offs have already exceeded the milestone of 70 thousand freight cars. Such high rates of fleet retirement are associated with the entry into force of the requirements of the Technical Regulations of the Customs Union “On the Safety of Railway Rolling Stock”, which obliges expensive modernization of rolling stock when extending the service life and subsequent certification, as well as with record high low rates for the provision of wagons in 2015.

The historical minimum average rates for the provision of the most popular type of rolling stock - gondola cars - amount to 350 - 400 rubles. per day was recorded in the summer of 2015. The situation was due to a surplus of the fleet, which depends on the demand for transportation, the volume of purchases and write-offs of cars, the timeliness of depot major repairs, and the level of costs for rolling stock owners - maintenance and repair costs, administrative and investment costs, leasing and loan payments.

Starting from August 2015, the rate began to increase, initially on routes that are inconvenient for the transportation of low-cost cargo from a logistics point of view. Subsequently, there was a general increase in rates, due to the intensive decommissioning of the fleet, as well as the need to include return on investment for the purchase of new expensive cars in the operators’ income rate. Reducing the surplus by forcing cars with expired service life to be scrapped will raise the level of the profit rate by several tens of percent. Thus, in the near future there will be a change in trend: the buyer’s market will change to a seller’s market in certain transportation directions and for certain cargoes.

Fall in production

Against the backdrop of falling demand, there is a sharp drop in car production. The production capacities of factories remain underutilized. If in 2015 enterprises were provided with assistance in accordance with the government decree on the support and reassignment of personnel, then this year they began to reduce workforces due to a surplus of personnel whose wage included in the cost of freight cars.

The next factor influencing the cost of freight cars is the spring rise in prices for rolled metal - their metal intensity is quite high, and another jump in metal prices in the domestic and foreign markets (more than 20%) has led to a decrease in the level of sales of cars from 97 to 90% over the past two months . At the end of 6 months of 2016, the factory warehouses held unsold products worth RUB 2.3 billion. -- about 1150 wagons.

The share of innovative cars is growing

The state is trying to support the demand for new rolling stock, focusing on the purchase of innovative cars, as the most promising for reducing total transport costs in the economy.

There are 6 manufacturers officially represented on the innovative railcar market - UVZ, TVSZ, Altaivagon, Roslavlsky VZ, NKVZ and the Metal Structures Plant in Engels. In recent years, most of the innovative cars have been produced by the Tikhvin Carriage Plant. Since 2008, this enterprise has produced about 38 thousand innovative cars, which amounted to 10% of all cars produced in the Russian Federation during this period. At the same time, in 2012, the share of innovative cars in the plant’s production structure was 1%, and in 2015 - about 55%. In general, the share of innovative cars in production is steadily growing: the ratio of classic-design cars to innovative ones in 2016 is expected to be 70% in favor of the latter, and in the gondola car segment - at 90%.

The planned production of freight cars in 2016 is 30-35 thousand cars. It is expected that about 70% of the cars from this volume will be produced on innovative bogies with an increased load capacity of 25 t. At the same time, there are three types of innovative carts on the market - these are mod. 18-194-1 produced by UVZ and mod. 18-9855 “Barber S-2-R”, produced under license from TVSZ, as well as Motion Control carts mod. 18-9836 (currently not available).

Currently, there is a demand not just for the purchase of cars, but for the purchase of services, which includes after-sales service. This means that manufacturers need to plan to develop a network of service centers to service their products. With the transition to the production of new generation cars, this topic will become extremely relevant, and the industry must be ready for this qualitative transition.

Changes in the field of car repairs

The scope of rolling stock repair directly depends on the condition and quantity of the fleet on the railway network. On the background established order extending the service life of cars after the entry into force of the technical regulations of the Customs Union on August 2, 2014, car repair facilities during 2015 began to transform their services in accordance with the new rules. Entered 01.01. In 2016, changes in the PTE of the Russian Railways banning the operation of extended cars on the public network actually deprived this area of ​​activity of prospects.

A number of preventive measures are used to improve the failure-free operation of the railway network: administrative measures, which also limits the capabilities of car repair companies, despite the existing demand. For example, in 2015, members of the Commission of the Council on Railway Transport of authorized specialists of the carriage industry of railway administrations agreed on a ban from January 1, 2017 on the formation of wheel pairs for freight cars using axles of the RU-1 type. Obviously, implementing this measure will not be difficult, since due to the massive write-off of rolling stock, the market is overflowing with a huge number of spare parts that have been released.

The work of the car repair complex is also becoming more complicated due to the increase in the production of innovative cars, which have longer intervals between repairs and an increased service life compared to traditional ones.

All these factors adversely affect the volume of work of car repair companies, which in turn resort to capacity optimization.

A possible direction of activity in these conditions is the transition to cassette bearings. The service life of a cassette bearing between repairs is 8 years. Currently, the CTBU 130x250 bearings (in the axle box housing), installed in 1000 new gondola cars produced by UVZ in 2008, have reached the end of their 8-year service life. Companies producing bearings of this type expressed their readiness to supply new bearings, as well as repair dismantled bearings.

In connection with the transition to the production of innovative cars, more than 10 thousand tapered bearings will be repaired until 2020 inclusive; in 2021, the increase in repair volumes of cassette bearings will be almost 40 thousand units, and until 2023 inclusive - almost 300 thousand tapered bearings.

Uncouplings in TOR are growing

Today, the main parameter for the reliability of rolling stock in operation on the Russian Railways network is uncoupling in the top priority areas. Within a month, 200 cars out of 1000 are uncoupled on the network, that is, every fifth car, for one reason or another, does not withstand operating conditions and creates costs for the owners.

Since 2013, when 1,118 thousand cars were uncoupled, the number of uncouplings in the ASEZ exceeds the number of cars in the Russian Railways network. In 2014, the growth in uncouplings was 11% (1,256 thousand cars uncoupled); in 2015, this figure increased by another 6.7% (1,346 thousand uncouplings). Thus, each car is uncoupled at the TOP at least once during the year, that is, more than 3,600 cars are uncoupled per day. In the segment of innovative rolling stock, each car produced by UVZ is uncoupled twice a year, during the same period every fifth car produced by TVSZ is uncoupled. However, with a large number of uncouplings, the reliability of such elements of innovative cars as axle boxes equipped with cassette-type bearings is confirmed.

In 2015, the structure of current repairs was a combination of three main faults: 33% - body, 33% - wheelset, 21% - bogies, the remaining 7% were in the axle box unit, frame, auto brake, automatic coupler, etc.

Government support for the industry

Today, there is a whole range of government support measures for the car building industry - from stimulating the production of innovative cars to recycling old cars, including tax breaks and discounts for using new cars. In 2016, manufacturers of freight cars with certain technical characteristics, as well as car-carrying cars, will receive another measure of state support in the amount of 3 billion rubles. from federal budget. The purpose of providing these subsidies is to increase the competitiveness of innovative freight railway rolling stock.

According to representatives of enterprises, the new support measure will only partially compensate for the sharp increase in prices for materials and components observed since the second quarter of 2016. Therefore, this measure can be assessed as timely and necessary, but it is premature to talk about its effectiveness. Measures to stimulate production only indirectly affect demand by reducing the selling price. Due to underutilization production capacity enterprises and an increase in metal prices, the effect of using this measure may be dissolved in covering losses and have a slight impact on the selling price.

The volume of cars that is planned to be sold in 2016 using this measure is estimated at 20 thousand units. Thus, support for the production of one car will amount to about 150 thousand rubles. If this measure is jointly implemented and owners are subsidized for the purchase of innovative cars in the amount of 300 thousand rubles, the final effect will be 450 thousand rubles, which will practically equalize the cost of innovative cars and cars of classical design.

Despite the difficult situation, manufacturing enterprises are working to improve the quality and consumer properties of new cars, innovative solutions for freight car building inevitably penetrate all market segments. Innovative grain carriers, tanks and a number of other types of cars have already been presented, which have an increased body volume, an extended service life, and are also equipped with bogies with an axle load capacity of 25 tf. It is obvious that in the coming years the demand for such specialized cars will increase.
Georgy Zobov, head of the transport engineering research department at IPEM