Inflation in Russia in 2018 will slow to 4%, which corresponds to the government’s baseline forecast. A slowdown in price growth will allow the Central Bank to continue reducing rates, which will lead to a further reduction in prices credit resources. However new period devaluation may become an additional driver of inflation next year.

The economic crisis led to a rapid devaluation of the ruble and a corresponding rise in prices. Inflation on an annual basis reached 13%, which led to a significant decrease in the level of well-being of citizens. As a result, the Central Bank was forced to increase the key rate, increasing the cost of ruble liquidity. The recovery of the domestic economy after the crisis allows the regulator to move on to a gradual reduction in the rate.

In June 2017, the Central Bank lowered the rate to 9%, reacting to the slowdown in inflation. At the end of the year, price growth will slow down to 4%, which corresponds to the target level, regulator representatives emphasize. This trend will remain relevant in 2018, as fundamental factors contribute to the stabilization of the domestic economy.

Despite the cold period (spring-summer 2017), which led to an increase in prices for fruits and vegetables, the Central Bank is confident that prices will stabilize in the medium term. Experts note factors whose influence could lead to a new acceleration of inflation. Oil market dynamics, economic recovery rates and trends foreign exchange market will determine whether inflation in 2018 will correspond to the Central Bank’s forecast.

Drivers of inflation in 2018

The Central Bank's optimistic forecasts are based on the expected stabilization of oil prices and recovery economic growth. Next year, GDP growth will reach 1.5%, according to representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development. Under a more favorable scenario in the commodity markets, the growth of the domestic economy will accelerate to 1.7-2%.

The key factor for the resumption of economic growth remains the stability of oil prices. The cost of a barrel of “black gold” should not fall below $50, experts say. Coordinated measures by OPEC representatives will ensure a moderate increase in oil prices.

However, the oil market remains unbalanced, which could lead to further turmoil next year. Experts do not rule out a price reduction to $25-30 per barrel if suppliers fail to fulfill their obligations to reduce oil production. In addition, countries that are not limited by quotas will be able to take advantage of market conditions and increase their own oil supplies.

The fall in oil prices will have a negative impact on the development of the domestic economy. As a result, the projected 1.5% GDP growth next year will be at risk. Also, the government will be forced to weaken the position of the domestic currency, reacting to the decline in budget revenues.

Chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova notes the impact of fluctuations in currency quotes on the inflation index. In 2018, the basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development allows for the weakening of the Russian currency to 70 rubles/dollar, which will lead to an acceleration of inflation. The rise in the dollar exchange rate will affect the rise in prices of imported goods, which occupy a significant share in the consumer basket. As a result, it will be difficult for the Central Bank to achieve the target inflation level.

Slowing inflation will lead to an increase in real incomes of citizens. In addition, the Central Bank will be able to reduce the rate level, providing the economy with cheap loans.

Beneficial inflation

The acceleration of inflation during the crisis had a negative impact on the level of well-being of citizens. Rising prices began to “eat up” real incomes of the population, which led to a reduction in consumption. As a result, the economy lost one of its growth factors.

In addition, rising inflation and the Central Bank's response measures led to a sharp increase in the cost of borrowed resources. The collapse of lending led to stagnation in various sectors of the economy. Next year, experts predict another reduction in interest rates on loans. Including rates for mortgage loans may fall below 10%, which will lead to a revival in the real estate market.

Reducing the inflation index to 4% will lead to a reduction in budget costs. As a result, the government will be able to reduce the costs of annual indexation of payments (including increasing pensions), which will reduce the state treasury deficit. In this case, the authorities will be able to redirect some of the resources to the development of infrastructure projects, which will give an additional impetus to the Russian economy.

Next year, inflation will remain at 4%, which is in line with the forecasts of the government and the Central Bank. Domestic economy continues to recover from the crisis, which leads to a slowdown in price growth.

Experts note factors that may prevent the implementation of this scenario. First of all, this is a decline in oil prices and the subsequent slowdown of the economy. In addition, the weakening of the ruble will have a negative impact on inflation rates.

A slowdown in inflation will lead to an increase in real incomes of citizens, a decrease budget expenditures and cheaper loans.

Watch a video about what inflation is and what types there are:

Predicting inflation today is extremely difficult because everything economic indicators Today they are characterized by increased instability and are constantly changing. However, those what will be the inflation forecast for 2018, after all, a huge number of people are interested, because it is on the basis of this information that it can be built, which means that even if the data is approximate, you need to pay attention to it.

Inflation is a variable economic value that is influenced by several factors. The most important of them are considered throughout the world (meaning world indicators, on the basis of which the forecast for the development of the world economic system is compiled). Foreign economic relations between states (specifically in Russia today there is a problem with interstate relations due to the introduction of sanctions), as well as a large number of internal factors (presence or absence budget deficit, economic growth, state of the economy).

TO additional factors, which influence the level of inflation, and on which, accordingly, depends inflation forecast in Russia in 2018, include the development of the banking sector, on which the state of the entire country largely depends. Modern financial organizations Today they are rapidly losing their own stability and becoming bankrupt, which does not contribute to normalization, so the authorities should solve the problem with financing banks, because otherwise they will not have to count on a decrease in the level of inflation in the country.

What are the experts talking about?

Experts are carefully discussing the issue of changes in inflation in the near future, and they insist that this figure will decrease annually, and for 2018 it should reach a level of 3 or 4%. Today, such a figure does not seem entirely real, because until recently inflation reached double digits, and today it will drop to a minimum, but this is actually so, so believe official inflation forecast for 2018 Of course it's worth it.

In general, experts from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development prefer to think positively, which gives reason to think that the situation in the state as a whole is beginning to improve a little. However, there are also people who believe that with such positive figures the authorities are trying to divert the attention of Russians from some other economic problems, for example, from or the instability of the foreign exchange market, which, it must be said, they succeed in doing.

True, one cannot ignore the fact that the predicted inflation rate (4%) from the Ministry of Economic Development coincides with that predicted by independent expert analysts. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund expects a continuation or a new round of the crisis, which could cause an increase in inflation rates, and all expert opinions may turn out to be true. Of course, there is a possibility of error, because the leaders economic organizations and independent analysts have made mistakes with their forecasts more than once, but it is minimal, although, of course, you shouldn’t forget about it.

Information on "dessert"

The authorities strongly recommend that the population tune their thoughts to a positive wave, because this is the only way to completely change themselves and the world around them. Naturally, you shouldn’t relax too much, because adversity can await a person literally at every step, and, yes, and if you believe the information from the forecasts, then wages for Russians will not increase too much. But the authorities are doing everything in their power to normalize the standard of living in the country, so no one should have any reason to worry.

Looking through Inflation forecast chart for 2018 for Russia cannot be ignored, it will gradually decrease, and given that it is on the basis of this indicator that the indexation coefficient is calculated, the authorities decided to fix it at the same level. Inflation will be approximately 4% and indexation will be carried out at exactly this percentage, as has become known today. So the level wages and social benefits will increase exactly by 4%, and even if it’s not much, a small increase is better than no increase at all (in accordance with this rule, Russians have been living for the last few years).

In conclusion, it must be said that during the year the inflation rate may rise slightly (it is called creeping), and this phenomenon has certain positive features. Which? When inflation increases slightly, people who took out a loan are afraid to quickly pay it off and take it out again, expecting that inflationary changes will make it easier to pay off debts (this stimulates the banking sector). Another positive change is that Russians who keep their savings “under the pillow” prefer to place them in a bank to protect them from depreciation, and this, in turn, also improves the performance of the country’s banking sector. In general, any situation has its advantages, the main thing is to learn to notice them.

Probably not a single word evokes such horror among residents of the post-Soviet space as the term “inflation.” Anyone who is 30 years old or older today remembers well how quickly savings can depreciate and confidence in a secure future can sink into oblivion. After the calm beginning of the 2000s, when life began to get better and rubles were finally in a stable position in relation to rubles, inflationary processes again intervened in the lives of Russians.

Over the past few years, the average person has constantly noted an increase in prices for food, travel, clothing and housing and communal services, as well as a reduction. Savings depreciate, and real income does not keep pace with the current expenditure of funds that are needed for a full life. It is especially difficult for the least protected segments of the population - pensioners, students, pregnant women, large families, orphans and disabled people could not boast of full provision from the state.

If inflation is not stopped, many Russians will find themselves below the poverty line

And with the intensification of inflation processes, they found themselves “below the poverty line.” Of course, the crisis phenomena of the Russian economy cannot be compared with the period experienced by people who lived during the collapse of the socialist empire. However, citizens still prefer to keep their finger on the pulse of events and monitor forecasts from specialists in the field of macroeconomics. Let's see what inflation forecasts experts give for 2018.

Forecast from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

As usual, experts representing the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “blow the same tune”, presenting the Russians with the same macroeconomic forecasts. Analysts from these departments say that in 2018, government economists will be able to finally curb inflationary manifestations, so that the year will end with the depreciation rate of money no higher than 4%.

The task of curbing inflation is considered a priority by these departments, because without this it is impossible to reduce interest rates and ensure an increase in domestic demand of households and investment activity of entrepreneurs. Let us remind you that these tasks are clearly stated in the financial plans of the national level for 2017-2019.

If we focus on the data published by government statistical departments, then this level of inflation can be safely considered quite achievable. According to official reports, already in 2016 the government was able to bring the level of money depreciation to 5.4%, with a planned 10% per year. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance have already dubbed this figure a record, because back in 2015 inflation was recorded at 12.9%. In just a year it was reduced by more than half.

In 2017, the Central Bank plans to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy, so 4% inflation in 2018 looks like a completely logical and natural consequence of implementation economic programs. The optimism of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance is supported. He said that in recent years the Russian economy has begun to develop at an unprecedented pace, and the decline in inflation indicators is happening even more quickly than was calculated in the forecasts of previous years.

Calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development

It is worth noting that not all government departments support the optimism of the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank RF. The Ministry of Economic Development does not yet expect inflation of 4% per year. Moreover, in their forecasts, representatives of this department say that even under optimal conditions it will not be possible to achieve inflation of 4% in 2019. The maximum the government can count on is 4.1% in 2 years. In 2017 and 2018, they predict the depreciation of the ruble at 4.9% and 4.4%, respectively.

With “optimistic” ruble quotes of 64.5-65.5 units per 1 US dollar, the real income of the population will grow by no more than 3% per year, that is, it will lag behind inflationary influences. Therefore, the Ministry of Economic Development believes that the income received by Russians will not have a significant impact on the country’s economy, but a collapse similar to the example of 2015 should not be expected. Well, the pessimistic forecast says that in 2017 wage growth will be fixed at 0.6% per year.

Real and announced inflation rates by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rarely coincide

It is quite possible that the situation will repeat in the 90s, when statistical reports spoke of normal incomes of the population even in depressed areas of the country, but in reality they were provided only pension payments and social benefits. That is, another waste of the budget. However, now, as we know, the almost completely exhausted Reserve Fund will not make it possible to easily cover the needs of the population who do not have the opportunity to earn extra money on their own.

In principle, this thesis is confirmed by the Ministry of Economic Development, whose experts recommend that the government fulfill minimum social obligations. For example, for public sector workers, with the exception of teachers and health workers, it is proposed to plan a complete moratorium on salary indexation in the period 2017-2019.

UN Department of Economic Affairs forecasts

They are somewhat less optimistic about the Russian future. According to calculations by specialists from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, real indicators of inflation processes in Russia in 2015 and 2016 reached 15.9% and 10.5%, respectively.

Given the persistence of sanctions restrictions and unstable oil prices, it is not yet possible to count on a quick restoration of pre-crisis growth rates in the future. The maximum that can be expected from 2018 is overcoming the zero level of GDP growth and some reduction in inflation, but not more than to a level of 7.1%.

It cannot be said that such an improvement will be achieved solely through government measures. According to statements by many foreign agencies, the rapid rate of decline in inflation indicators only indicates that the Russian economy has entered a phase of stagnation, and the consumer demand of the population is characterized by very low values ​​due to the freezing of wages and many types of social benefits.

Independent experts' assessments

The significant improvement in published indicators, according to independent experts, can also be explained by the new calculation methodology that Rosstat began to use. Thus, according to analyst Denis Davydov, representing Nordea Bank, the data presented by Rosstat does not yet add clarity. The bank is in no hurry to adjust internal forecasts, focusing on an inflation rate of 4.6% by the beginning of 2018.

Analysts at the Russian rating agency ACRA say that a reduction in inflation, on which representatives of the Central Bank are fixated, could lead to a decrease in the flexibility of real wages and, as a result, contribute to growth natural unemployment. According to ACRA calculations, the real income of Russians will continue to fall in the next few years. In 2017 it will decrease by 1.1%, in 2018 – by 0.8%, and only by 2020 can we expect an increase of 1%.

Even with a decrease in inflation, the income of Russian citizens will continue to fall

Separately, it is worth noting the discrepancy between the information published by Rosstat and representatives of the private holding Romir, whose analysts use a methodology that reflects real changes in prices for various groups of goods and services. At the beginning of 2017, Romir's calculations indicate inflation of 3.2%. The reason for this was the increase in prices for food (7%) and alcoholic beverages, prices for which increased by 12%. At the same time, over the same period of time, Rosstat provides information that inflation increased by only 0.6%.

Possible causes of inflation in the Russian Federation

Experts say that inflation indicators are put under pressure by the ruble exchange rate and low demand from the population, since this macroeconomic indicator can decline so sharply only under the influence of two factors - global inflation or the lack of consumer demand. However, as an analysis of the world economy shows, inflation processes in global terms do not show such a decline as the indicators announced in Russia.

Current deflationary processes may be caused by the artificial influence of the Central Bank or have a short-term seasonal nature. In addition, artificially low inflation is an excellent reason to reduce indexation of salaries, scholarships and all types of social benefits. At the same time, when analyzing Russian consumer demand, experts focus on the fact that today average citizens spend approximately 1/3 of their budget on food.

For comparison, in Europe this figure is 15% of family income. In Luxembourg it makes up 8.6% of all spending, in the Netherlands – 10%, in the UK – 11%, in Denmark, Norway and Austria – 11.9%. In the Russian Federation, the leaders in spending on food purchases are Dagestan, where residents spend up to 58.7% of the budget on food, Crimea - 48.5%, Ingushetia - 44.7% and Buryatia - 43.7%. They spend the minimum on food in the Moscow region - about 26% of the entire family budget.

Russians spend 30% of their budget on food, and another 20% on housing and communal services!

In 2016 alone, consumer activity among Russian residents fell by 5%, and the increase in food consumption declared by Rosstat affected only the cheapest groups of goods, which include carrots, onions, potatoes and cabbage. Spending on meat fell from 30.7% to 18.6% of the food budget, and on dairy from 22.3% to 13.8%. Experts say that this fact indicates that the “personal” inflation of Russians is higher than the “average temperature in the hospital” calculated by specialists from Rosstat.

At the Ministry of Economic Development, experts have calculated since the fall of 2016, what will be the inflation forecast for 2018. From the statement of the Deputy Minister for economic development Alexey Vedev should expect a 4 percent inflation rate in the next two years. He also noted that in order to soften the situation, the Central Bank of Russia will maintain a moderately tight monetary and credit policy.

The Russian economy, as determined by the Ministry of Economic Development, will gradually improve by 2018 and is expected to rise in all indicators of various areas.

How experts explain inflation

The concept of inflation refers to the phenomenon when channels money circulation overflowing with excess amounts of money, and this is reflected in commodity prices, which inevitably increase.

This event was called an economic phenomenon in the 20th century, despite the fact that there had been facts of price growth before, especially in wartime.

The emergence of the term is associated with reform in the national monetary system and the transition to paper bills, which depreciate when there is an excess of them.

Modern inflation is influenced by a complex of different factors, for example, we can say about the rapid growth of production of various types of goods, its structural complexity, the universality of the price system, social transfers, the emerging monopoly at some enterprises has led to changes in pricing, and price competition has decreased.

Efficiency in production usually increases not from lower prices, but from the growth of profitable masses, as well as from the profitability of all participants in the production chain.

A prerequisite, but more often inflation itself, can be considered the dynamics of prices in the direction of its increase.

Forecasts Ministry of Finance and Central Bank

Official inflation forecast for 2018– this is 4 point and 8 percent.

Savings standards, according to Central Bank analysts, will be reduced in the next couple of years, just as the reduction will gradually reach an inflationary level.

Consumer demand will be restored, and the volatility of the ruble will return to the characteristics of the indicators of the 14th year.

Our responsible government agencies agree that we will be able to achieve 4 percent inflation this year, and we would like to fix this figure. At the Central Bank today this is a priority guide in work.

About forecast of an international rating agency

Fitch Ratings analyzed the situation Russian economy, expressed his opinions about the rise in prices of goods and services this and next years. An international rating agency has determined that inflation in 2018will be 5 and a half percent, such a forecast can be seen in the news feed on the portal of the analytical organization.

This same year will be even sadder for citizens, since analysts here provide information about a six percent inflation rate.

Regarding the average annual ruble exchange rate, Fitch Ratings experts say that this year the dollar will be equal to 65 rubles, and in 2018 it will be equal to 60 rubles. 2017 should bring GDP growth by 1.3 percent, and from next year - by 2 percent. Consumer spending will increase by a couple of percent this year, and in 2018 this figure will rise by another half a percent.

About indices - deflators reported by the Ministry of Economic Development

Many compatriots are worried about economic expectations about how the Russia of the future will develop. But economic system Today it is quite unstable, therefore it is not easy to give exact data; any figures are approximate.

Price trends analyzed by government experts are called deflators. They are needed by specialists to calculate prices at specific times in each industrial sector. Therefore, the Ministry of Economic Development of the country will indicate a different price index for construction contract and works, for Agriculture, for retail and wholesale trading companies.

Inflation forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2018 speaks of its decline; inflation rates will gradually fall, according to preliminary data, until 2030. Already in the next new year, life will become a little easier for the people of Russia. Percentages in tabular form can be seen on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development.

From there it can be seen that the percentages on inflation indicators in 2018 are lower than this year, and the situation will only improve further, with all industrial sectors expecting an economic recovery.

About forecast deflator indices with a long-term perspective by 2030, you should know that they are developed taking into account the conditions that influence the set goals and objectives.

Indicators depend on many economic factors, mainly on inflation and oil prices, which undergo periodic changes, therefore you need to periodically refer to information sources that reflect the latest data.

Up economics and forecasting price growth

Rosstat published data on price growth, which shows that the year before last 15th year was sad with high rates, that is, about 13 percent, and already in the 16th year the price increase acquired a smaller percentage component, the figure fell to 5.4.

If we consider the previous few years, noticeable sharp jumps sometimes up, sometimes down:

1. 14th year – 11 and 4 tenths percent.
2. 13th – 6 and a half percent.
3. 12th – 6 point and 6 percent.
4. 11th – 6 point and 1 percent.
5. 10th and 2009th years - 8 and 8 tenths of percent.
6. 2008 – oh – 13.3 percent.

Inflation forecast chart for 2018 for Russia is calculated by the figures of this year and the estimated figures of the following:

Today, most experts and government officials speak positively about macroeconomic indicators. Stabilization is approaching, stopping the fall and strengthening of the native Russian currency.

Optimism is reduced by gold and foreign exchange reserves, which have been reduced by a lot in the country today. If the sad trend continues, currency operations will be revised, this currency will be distributed among the country's banks to regulate supply and demand. It will also be needed for partial repayment foreign loans. Then dangerous volatility, which may be reflected in the volatility of foreign exchange market prices, will be eliminated.

Inflation forecast in Russia for 2017 – 2018 indicated by approximate figures of 4 - 5 percent. The President of the country said that the government will try to get closer to these most favorable and possible data for today in order to improve life and economic conditions in the country.