Government officials, economists, and business representatives are almost unanimous that exchange rate fluctuations, its instability, or, as economists say, high volatility, are even worse than just a weakening of the ruble.

And it’s clear why. After all, the national currency exchange rate is one of the main reference points for decision-making by economic agents in any country and at any level, from the population to the government. In economies open to external markets like the Russian one, where foreign trade turnover forms a significant part of GDP, this is the main guideline.

Firstly, when exchange rate fluctuations are high, the costs of all transactions in one way or another related to export-import operations increase sharply. This, in turn, leads to an additional increase in prices due to the uncertainty factor. In other words, not only “importers,” but also “exporters” suffer from volatility (including sharp strengthening of the ruble). Moreover, exchange rate instability also poses a problem for those who are trying to compete with imports in the domestic market. That is, volatility interferes with import substitution.

Second, consumers who want to continue to buy imported goods, or travel abroad, or simply save their savings, increase the foreign exchange share of savings to protect against uncertainty. All this does not contribute to the stabilization of the ruble.

Thirdly, for years Russians have developed the habit of focusing on the exchange rate as a kind of indicator of stability. Exchange rate fluctuations affect their assessment of current events and can give the population a reason to reduce consumption and entrepreneurs to reduce investments. And even those entrepreneurs who do not intend to give up investments find it difficult to plan them.

A stable ruble is so important for the economy that this is reflected at the legislative level. Both the Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 75) and the Federal Law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation” (Article 3) proclaim: “Protecting and ensuring the stability of the ruble is the main function of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.”

Current situation: currency swings

However, statements by the heads of the Bank of Russia do not yet give reasons for optimism.

“We would really like the ruble exchange rate to at least a basket of currencies to be stable. This would be very useful for the economy and anti-inflationary policy. But provide This impossible (emphasis mine. - WITH. B. ).,” says the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank. DmitriyTulin.

Head of the Central Bank ElviraNabiullina goes even further. By declaring that the ruble exchange rate can only be stabilized by diversifying the economy, she is actually shifting from herself to the chairman of the government DmitryMedvedev responsibility entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law on the Central Bank: after all, if anyone is asked to diversify the economy, it will not be the Central Bank, but the government.

When the main character of the money market publicly admits his own impotence, it is no longer surprising that, despite the relative normalization of the economy, currency swings continue to swing for more than half a year.

During trading on the Moscow Exchange on April 11, the euro exchange rate rose above 80 rubles. This happened for the first time in more than two years. The last time the single European currency was worth this much was in March 2016.

At the moment, the ruble has slightly moved foreign currencies away from dangerous levels, however, the rate of its weakening looks frightening. Since the beginning of the trading session, the dollar has risen in price by 1.13 rubles, the euro – by 1.49 rubles. At the moment, a unit of American currency costs 64.14 rubles, while a “European” currency costs 79.34 rubles.

The ruble remains colossally dependent on the geopolitical agenda. The emergence of negative news, primarily about the development of the conflict in Syria, leads to new shocks. The day before, after the closure of the exchanges, a meeting of the UN Security Council was held, at which it became clear that the situation in the Middle Eastern republic was far from resolved. Because of this, the ruble experienced another fall this morning.

When everyone let off steam, the national currency strengthened a little, The Bell cites the opinion of Nordea Bank analyst Denis Davydov. If bad news appears again, the “wooden” price could go into the range of 65-70 rubles today. for a dollar.

It is impossible to predict further developments in the foreign exchange market. Oil continues to rise in price steadily, and this circumstance is pushing the ruble exchange rate up. The fall in the volume of investments in Russian assets is dragging the national currency in the opposite direction. At any moment, a geopolitical factor may intervene, and this will turn out to be a decisive circumstance.

For now, geopolitical tensions do not appear to be easing. The Skripal case continues to be on the agenda. The Americans are again talking about another round of restrictive measures against Russian business, when our country has not yet recovered from the previous blow.

The conflict in Syria, it seems, will only escalate further. The more Americans talk about their readiness to strike at the positions of Bashar al-Assad, the more persistently representatives of the Russian government promise Washington “serious consequences.” Thus, Moscow is further weakening the position of the ruble.

Citizens are already ready to rush to stores to buy household appliances with their ruble savings before they depreciate, or to banks to buy a more stable currency. Experts advise them not to do this: the situation remains uncertain, the dollar and euro can at any time move from their peak values ​​towards a decline, and then the person who bought foreign currency will be a loser.

The Russian authorities continue to maintain Olympic calm, observing the fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate. The Ministry of Finance said that they do not see a threat to the stability of the Russian economy, and therefore the department is not going to take any measures to strengthen the ruble.

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov blamed speculators for everything. “These are emotional manifestations, perhaps partially speculative manifestations. A calm and sober assessment of the situation is required here. You know that volatility happens. The system has a fair margin of safety,” he said.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev promised that sanctions are even good for the Russian economy. They say that our country will cope with this pressure and even turn it to its advantage.

Independent experts believe that the ruble exchange rate will stabilize when the situation regarding further sanctions and geopolitical tensions becomes clearer. At the same time, they warn that in the coming weeks the dollar will not return to the level of 57-58 rubles, where it was for more than a year. Correction may take several months. “As the situation stabilizes and risks are assessed, support from oil will not allow the ruble to fail. I think that a return to 60-61 rubles is quite possible in the absence of an additional flow of negativity,” believes Daria Zhelannova, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company.

In his opinion, the devaluation of the ruble is associated with lower oil prices and geopolitical risks.

“We are monitoring the situation. It must come to a new equilibrium. And the value of the currency, taking into account the new position, both in the trade balance and taking into account the outflow of capital, is looking for its equilibrium positions.<…>We hope this will happen soon. We will get some new levels of balancing the balance of payments and then we will see how the situation develops,” TASS quotes the Minister of Finance.

However, the forecast of the head of the Ministry of Finance regarding the imminent stabilization of the Russian currency is in no hurry to come true - at today's currency trading, the ruble again demonstrated negative dynamics. In the morning, the “wooden” price set a new historical low at 40.37 rubles per dollar. The official exchange rate of the American currency, set by the Central Bank on Saturday, October 11, was 40.21 rubles.

The euro also set a historical maximum against the ruble - the official exchange rate of the European currency of the Central Bank was set at 51.05 rubles. The last European record of 50.94 rubles was recorded in March.

We turned to experts and found out what prevents the Russian currency from stopping its fall and when the ruble will stabilize.

Mayor of Khimki, former head of the Investment Policy Department of the Ministry of Economic Development Oleg Shakhov

Stabilization of the exchange rate will undoubtedly occur in the medium term, since this is extremely important for the population from the point of view of a significant increase in inflation, and the authorities understand this well. At the moment, such strong movements are largely speculative: players are reacting to a negative news background, a decline in oil prices. The regulator enters the market to dampen such a sharp weakening of the national currency, but does so carefully. At such moments, it is extremely difficult to calm the foreign exchange market, and there is no point in spending a significant part of gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Strengthening of the ruble can be expected towards the end of the year, when the peak of payments of foreign borrowings by the corporate sector ends - speculators will calm down, and there will be an awareness that there is no reason for panic.

Strengthening of the ruble can be expected towards the end of the year, when the peak of payments of foreign borrowings by the corporate sector ends - speculators will calm down, there will be an awareness that there is no reason for panic, and the national currency has every chance of strengthening by 1-2 rubles.

It is very important for the Central Bank to reassure the market, to make it clear that the situation is under control and the regulator is successfully performing this function. When the market calms down, through careful foreign exchange interventions it will be possible to achieve exchange rate stabilization.

Alexander Razuvaev, director of the analytical department of Alpari»

International reserves allow the Bank of Russia to set, probably, almost any exchange rate in the short term. If desired, the Central Bank can easily return it to the old level of 30-35 rubles per dollar. However, our monetary authorities prefer not to spend reserves; accordingly, in the near future the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will follow oil prices. And they should grow closer to the heating season. Plus, the likelihood of OPEC quota reductions is growing every day.

The situation looks alarming, especially in the medium and long term. Next year, the US Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates, which will automatically lead to a strengthening of the dollar against most currencies, a fall in emerging stock markets and, most importantly for Russia, commodities. The US dollar remains an investment currency, not a production currency. The problem is that the American rate starts almost from zero. And with a high probability, the world will face a long-term cycle of increase in oil prices, which, other things being equal, means a long-term “bear” cycle in oil prices. The capital-intensive and risky fields of the Russian Arctic may eventually become simply unprofitable. The fall in oil prices may coincide with a fall in its production in Russia. And this does not bode well for the Russian ruble.

Roman Ermakov, analyst, investment operations department, Lanta-Bank

Basically, the ruble is under pressure from a number of factors. Firstly, we are observing a continuing decline in oil prices (since the beginning of the year, oil prices have already fallen by about 15%), and now the BRENT oil brand is trading around $89 per barrel. Secondly, the ruble is influenced by geopolitics and restrictive measures on raising capital in relation to leading Russian banks from the US and the EU. Thirdly, the US currency is now strengthening against all currencies of developing countries, so the previous two factors only added additional acceleration to the growth of the US dollar against the ruble.

In September, Russian companies needed to refinance external corporate debt, which also contributed to the weakening of the national currency (the volume of corporate debt due by the end of this year is $33 billion, next year it will be $57 billion).

We believe that in the current conditions the regulator acts quite predictably and adequately to the situation. At the same time, the introduction of a longer-term currency repo, which the head of the Central Bank recently spoke about, in our opinion, needs to be implemented as soon as possible in order to discourage a speculative attack on the national currency, since it is already clear that currency interventions do little to help stabilize ruble exchange rate.

At the same time, we can now say quite confidently that the ruble is greatly oversold relative to its counterparts from developing countries. We predict that corporations have already accumulated most of the currency for the upcoming repayments before the end of the year, and there will no longer be such significant pressure on the ruble from their side. There is a risk of mass conversion of ruble deposits into foreign currency by the population. We believe that the level is 40-40.5 rubles/dollar. is attractive for fixing positions in US currency. We see the weighted average exchange rate for October at around 38.5 rubles per American as quite adequate to the current state of the Russian economy.

It must be admitted that reasonable exchange rate policy plays a significant role in economic development. Therefore, it is obvious that this policy should help solve the following problems:

Protection of national production from foreign competition (protectionism).

Stimulate exports and thereby contribute to an improvement in the balance of payments and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves (export expansion).

Foreign investment: stimulate the influx of foreign capital.

At first glance, it may seem that all three goals are achieved by depreciating the national currency (devaluation). More specifically, in our situation we are talking about the state helping to increase the dollar exchange rate, outstripping the growth of domestic prices.

The mechanism of the impact of devaluation on the economy is well known. A higher exchange rate of the dollar (and other convertible currencies) gives exporters additional benefits when exchanging foreign currency for rubles (or allows them to reduce prices in foreign currency), forces importers to buy dollars at a higher price and thereby reduces the profitability of imports, and makes ruble investments more profitable for foreign investors . But this effect is conditional and can produce beneficial consequences only under very specific conditions. There are no such conditions in Russia.

It is unlikely that a depreciation of the ruble can be any effective weapon for protecting domestic production. In conditions of inflation and weak domestic competition, rising import costs are relatively easily passed on to the consumer. Intense demand, created by decades of isolation from the world market, reacts little to rising prices of imported goods. Import tariffs and perhaps outright import restrictions may be more appropriate instruments of the type of protectionism we need.

Russian industrial goods are not very competitive in foreign markets, not so much in terms of prices, but in terms of quality, design, completeness and regularity of deliveries, etc. As for the export of raw materials, we can draw conclusions

from recent experience, what happens when the ruble exchange rate is low and the resulting excess of world prices over domestic ones: predatory sales abroad with concealment of foreign currency earnings, sales at dumping prices. Exports also need a well-developed program of diversification (reducing risk by combining the lending and investment activities of an entire group of borrowers) and incentives, rather than currency manipulation.

The effect of devaluation in terms of attracting foreign capital is equally questionable. Even if we do not take into account the argument that this will intensify the “sale of Russia,” it is quite obvious that in modern conditions the influx of foreign capital is hampered not by the ruble exchange rate, but by well-known economic, political and criminal factors.

While the positive effects of the depreciation of the ruble are doubtful and unlikely, the negative ones, on the contrary, are quite obvious. First of all, in our conditions it is a powerful factor of inflation and worsens the possibilities of any financial stabilization. The already catastrophic flow of foreign currency abroad and the accumulation of cash currency among the population are intensifying.

Any economic policy measures that could increase the rate of inflation are absolutely contraindicated. It is quite obvious that the collapse of the ruble, even on a small scale, would have extremely negative international consequences for Russia of various kinds - from worsening the prospects for economic integration of the CIS to the final undermining of our positions in international financial organizations and in capital markets.

Having analyzed various measures of exchange rate policy, we can conclude that it may consist of moderately restraining the depreciation of the ruble and maintaining an approximate correspondence between the growth of the dollar and the increase in domestic prices. If it is ever possible to reduce inflation to at least 1-1.5% per month, then we can talk about some kind of stabilization of the ruble exchange rate.

To improve the position of the ruble in the Russian economy, it is necessary to pursue a policy of a favorable investment climate, which consists of:

In the sustainable stabilization and subsequent revival of production, relying on the currently competitive part of the production apparatus;

In implementing a set of measures to normalize payment discipline, which will allow making savings in cash;

In a clear delineation of the areas of responsibility of the federal and local budgets, namely:

a) allocation of funds for the development of federal property;

b) in relation to individual objects that are in municipal ownership - the allocation of funds from the federal budget only through co-financing in an amount not greater than that provided for by the local budget;

Course regulation - These are actions aimed at maintaining a stable level of currency. This approach makes it possible to prevent sudden surges that negatively impact the economic activity of the country as a whole. Several methods are used to maintain the exchange rate.

Effective measures to stabilize currencies

Stabilization of the exchange rate implies the presence of a significant foreign exchange reserve, as well as high requirements for the country's monetary policy. The global economy has developed a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the national currency, which are as follows:

• – depreciation of the national currency. Those. foreign currency is worth an order of magnitude higher than the national currency. However, devaluation is used as a method of stabilization and has positive consequences for the country's economy.

• – reduction in the value of banknotes of the national currency. The lower its level, the more stable the economy.

• – characterizes the fall in product prices. Deflation is accompanied by a deterioration in economic indicators, which are associated with an increase in the unemployment rate in the country. During a period of deflation, many organizations are downsized, which forces entrepreneurs to seek investment.

• money implies the depreciation of the paper money supply due to the re-issuance of currency by “crossing out the zeros.”

• occurs due to an increase in the value of the national currency in relation to others.

How to support?

The methods used to regulate the exchange rate of the national currency are further divided into two broad categories: direct and indirect. Often, the management of foreign exchange reserves resorts to regulation by direct methods, since indirect ones affect the maintenance of the exchange rate only slightly and are auxiliary.

Direct methods are:

• Change in economic regime. This method allows you to reduce inflation rates, increase purchasing power, as well as the level of the budget in the country.

• Unfixed rate. This method allows the market to independently create the necessary exchange rate, thanks to which it is possible to switch to market coding.

Economists often practice switching to a non-fixed exchange rate, because This approach makes it possible to quickly restore the economy after the financial crisis. However, the introduction of a floating exchange rate may adversely affect those involved in international trade.

What influences the choice of exchange rate?

Determining the choice of exchange rate regime is a rather complex process, where many direct and indirect factors are taken into account:

• Macroeconomic indicators: level of convertibility, budget balance, gold and foreign exchange reserves, etc.
• Market indicators: the general state of the foreign exchange market in the world, dynamic data on product prices, which are important indicators of exports in the country.

Regulating and maintaining the exchange rate within the predicted values ​​allows the use of many tools in economic policy, which is aimed at reducing costs by reducing the tax burden, waiving loans, controlling the activities of monopolies, etc.

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