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Oil prices of major benchmark grades are under pressure as U.S. $ is strengthening along the entire global market, and shale companies in the US continue to increase the number of operating drilling rigs.

Oilfield services company Baker Hughes recorded an increase in the number of operating drilling rigs in the US by 7 units, to 414 units, according to the results of the previous week.

The US dollar was marked by large-scale growth along the entire foreign exchange market as Fed officials expressed doubts about the effectiveness of further continuation of loose monetary policy.

Prices have been very volatile lately and this is not surprising. The market is not yet able to confidently trade with Brent prices above $50 per barrel. This requires strong fundamental prerequisites, but they are still lacking. On Thursday we saw good stock data. But already on Friday, the dollar began to strengthen along the entire currency market and on the comments of the Fed representatives, and this is always a negative for oil.

This week, prices are unlikely to receive additional support from any side. This is the last week before the Fed meeting, and the dollar will feel confident. At the same time, a significant drop in inventories, which was recorded last week, most likely was of a one-time nature. Still, for a steady decline now is not the season.

Accordingly, the fluctuation range of 47-52 dollars per barrel remains quite logical. If the dollar continues to actively strengthen, then Brent may drop to 45, but this will already be interesting for purchases.

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Prices for oil of the main reference grades were marked by the most rapid growth in 2016 after the OPEC countries at the regular meeting in Vienna agreed to cut production. Valery Polkhovsky, an analyst at the FOREX CLUB Group of Companies, writes about this.

Contracts for European Brent crude with an expiration date in February on the ICE exchange in London on November 21 at 11:00 Moscow time added 0.9% to $51.90 per barrel. At the same time, the US benchmark WTI was up 0.9% to 49.40. A day earlier, both varieties added about 8% in price.

On November 30 in Vienna, the OPEC countries agreed to reduce oil production from January 2017 according to the agreements announced on September 28 in Algiers. Since the beginning of 2017, the cartel will reduce production by a total of 1.2 million barrels, and expects non-OPEC countries to reduce production by 600 thousand barrels per day. The reduction quotas do not apply to Nigeria and Libya, while Iran will freeze production at 3.7 million barrels per day.

OPEC was able to overcome all key differences, shaming the naysayers, and signaling that the cartel is much more alive than dead. His return to the market as a regulator signals the end of the “pump as much as you can” policy and will help quickly balance supply and demand. If a reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day can be achieved, taking into account the obligations of non-OPEC countries, this will help the market quickly get rid of excess stocks and raise the price to the level of 50-60 dollars.

It is also worth noting that OPEC's decision to cut will be valid until mid-2017. At first glance, this seems to be a weak point, but it is not so at all. By setting quotas for only 6 months, the cartel avoids rising prices at the far end of the forward curve, which will prevent high-cost miners from using long-term contracts to hedge risks. If necessary, the decision to reduce can be extended in June.

Skeptics will now turn their attention to the fact that non-OPEC countries may not cut production. However, it is worth noting that in countries such as Mexico and Azerbaijan, production will fall naturally due to the depletion of deposits. If it fails to achieve a reduction in production from Russia, which is expected to be about 300 thousand barrels, then in general this will not make any fundamental changes to the plan.

“We believe that the growth of OPEC creates a new higher fundamentally sound corridor for price fluctuations. According to our preliminary estimates, its central value will be in the area of ​​$55 per barrel. Toward the end of 2017, it may move to the level of $60,” concluded Valery Polkhovsky.