But the reform was actively opposed by the Ministry of Energy and the oil industry, who offered to wait with the maneuver. They were also supported by the former deputy chairman of the government, Arkady Dvorkovich, who was then in charge of the oil industry. “Everyone else, except the Ministry of Finance, believes that this is premature. When the modernization of the refinery is completed, it will be possible to return to this issue, ”said Dvorkovich in March of this year. And Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ended each meeting at which the maneuver was discussed with an instruction to once again calculate its consequences, the official recalls.

Have to borrow

The government decided to reduce the excise rate per ton of gasoline by 3,700 rubles, per ton of diesel fuel - by 2,700 rubles. (taking into account the planned indexation from July 1, without it - by 3,000 and 2,000 rubles, respectively. - Vedomosti), said First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov. Lost revenues, including regional budgets, will amount to 140 billion rubles. To compensate for their losses, revenues from fuel excises will be transferred to the regions in full. Loss Compensation Source federal budget will be determined in the fall - this may be additional non-oil and gas revenues and an increase in loans, Siluanov said.

This time, the decisive argument of the Ministry of Finance (and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in the new government was also appointed the first deputy chairman, curator economic issues) it became necessary to finance the new May decree of the president - the costs are estimated at 25 trillion rubles, of which 8 trillion have yet to be found, the official explains. The Ministry of Finance proposes to complete the maneuver in six years - to reduce the export duty annually by 5 percentage points and bring it to zero by 2024, raising the severance tax in proportion, Vedomosti's interlocutors say. This will give the budget from 1 trillion to 1.6 trillion rubles. depending on oil prices, says an official and a participant in government meetings.

Conditions and terms for the completion of the maneuver will still be discussed in the government, the official said.

It will be possible to accurately assess the effect only after the final parameters for completing the tax maneuver appear, but in any case, shifting the load in the mining segment from the export duty to the MET can significantly increase tax revenues by expanding tax base in physical terms, more than 2 times, says the director of the Moscow Oil and Gas Center EY Denis Borisov. But the main thing is what will be the fate of compensation to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and consumers of certain types of oil products (primarily fuel oil) in the domestic market: the total share of these two items in the total expected effect may exceed 40%, he believes. And also there were calculations, oil quotes were predicted, exchange rates, price spreads for petroleum products in Europe, premiums and discounts on regional markets, in case of methodological errors, the expectation of the effect for both the industry and the budget may not be justified, Borisov warns.

Businesses warn of the negative effects of the maneuver. It will affect the refining margin, the employee fears oil company. Businesses are already complaining about its negative effect. In 2015–2016 The average refinery margin decreased by more than 3 times compared to 2014, Vygon Consulting experts estimated. True, this is due to both the decline in oil prices and the increase in excise rates on motor gasoline, they explained. The Ministry of Finance offered the same explanations. Without compensation, when duties are zeroed in 2018, profitability will decrease even more, Vygon Consulting experts predicted.

600 billion rubles

this is the share of oil refineries in subsidies, says Aleksey Sazanov, director of the tax department of the Ministry of Finance. 140 billion rubles - budget losses due to supplies to Belarus - the country receives oil at domestic Russian prices without duties. 300 billion rubles - Losses due to containment of prices in the domestic market.

In order to support oil refining and avoid rising prices for gasoline, the Ministry of Finance is ready to provide businesses with compensation - negative excise taxes on oil, as well as lower excise taxes on petroleum products by 2-3 rubles. And for refineries that have completed the construction of deep oil refining units, to introduce multiplying factors to the base rate of negative excise tax, Aleksey Sazanov, director of the tax department of the Ministry of Finance, told Vedomosti.

But it is not clear to businesses how such excises will be administered, the employee explains. big company Moreover, the negative excise does not take into account the logistical factor and the volatility of oil prices.

The abolition of the export duty on non-excisable goods will increase the sensitivity of prices to external conditions, since the change in oil prices cannot be offset by a fixed excise tax in rubles, another objection is raised by an employee of an oil company, conveying the fears of the Ministry of Energy. The producers of dark oil products and fuel oil, as well as those refineries that export more than 80% of their products or that sell non-excisable goods on the domestic market, such as surrogate fuels, will suffer the most from the maneuver.

Representatives of Lukoil, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft did not respond to Vedomosti's inquiries.

Completion of the tax maneuver in the oil industry from 2019 - a sharp abolition of export duties on oil and oil products with an increase in the severance tax - could bring about 4.4 trillion rubles to the Russian budget. until 2025, according to experts from the Gaidar Institute. At the same time, they do not offer a compensatory reduction in excises, due to which from 2019 to 2024 gasoline prices could rise by 17% excluding inflation. Russian refineries, most of which in the interior of the country will find themselves in a zone of negative profitability due to the maneuver, are proposed to be given subsidies that will be gradually reduced to zero by 2024 as part of the “modernize or die” logic. Kommersant's sources in the industry and the government, as well as analysts, consider the proposal not well thought out.

The topic of the end of the tax maneuver in the oil industry was again raised in the September issue of the monitoring economic development RF, which is made by experts from the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute. The tax maneuver refers to the waiver of export duties on oil and petroleum products and the transfer of tax burden entirely on oil production through an increase in the severance tax. According to Andrey Kaukin, head of the Gaidar Institute's Industrial Markets Laboratory, the completion of the maneuver from January 1, 2019 would give an increase in budget revenues by 4.4 trillion rubles over the next five years, and would also contribute to the optimization of oil refining in the Russian Federation. Institute experts propose to keep excises on gasoline at the level of 2018, as a result of which, according to their estimates, retail prices for gasoline from 2019 to 2024 will grow by 16.7% in real terms due to an increase in domestic oil prices (due to an increase in the MET) and a decrease in export netback (due to zero duties). The Ministry of Finance, which developed similar proposals in 2016, provided for a reduction in excises in order to partially protect consumers from rising fuel prices.

The institute's experts, like the Ministry of Finance earlier, propose to give refineries subsidies, since without them even the most modern Russian plants will be on the verge of profitability, and most plants will fall behind. Now the level of export duties on light oil products is significantly lower than on oil, and this difference is actually a tax subsidy for oil refining. With zero duties, this subsidy will disappear.

At the same time, experts from the Gaidar Institute propose to give a "lump-sum subsidy" ( lump sum) to all refineries, which will initially be quite significant (841 billion rubles in 2019), but by 2024 should be reduced to zero. Such an approach, according to the authors of the monitoring, will force the refinery to either modernize production or close. “Some factories without modernization of their capacities will not be able to operate with a positive profitability and will be forced to start the modernization process. The subsidy to such refineries is aimed at ensuring their functioning during the transition period. The subsidy can also be given to those refineries that have already begun the modernization process to ensure a return on investments already made,” they note. But it remains unclear how the subsidy for specific refineries will be determined.

Meanwhile, this issue is key in the discussion about the completion of the tax maneuver. When the idea of ​​an abrupt end to the maneuver first surfaced in the Treasury in 2015, it was seen primarily as a means of emergency budget replenishment in the event that oil prices were sustainably below $40 a barrel. Already in 2016, when the budgetary situation improved, the Ministry of Finance stopped persistently lobbying for the completion of the maneuver.

The complexity of the situation is that the oil refining of the Russian Federation as a whole needs subsidies due to the so-called logistical backlog of plants located far from ports in the interior of the country. This is due to the fact that the transportation of petroleum products by railway obviously more expensive than transporting oil through a pipeline. Under normal economic conditions, it will always be more profitable to export oil and refine it at refineries in Europe or Asia located close to consumers. Since oil refining in the Russian Federation is export-oriented (at least fuel oil and diesel fuel), it will not be able to compete with foreign refineries without subsidies, even if Russian plants are completely modernized. This will lead to the fact that part of the refineries in Russia will have to be closed, which will significantly affect the fuel balance in the regions. As Kommersant's interlocutors in the Ministry of Energy have repeatedly noted, social issues and so on will have to be resolved, since so far Russia has not had the experience of closing large refineries.

Accordingly, the question is on what criteria to issue subsidies. If they are issued on the basis of maintaining the normal profitability of all refineries, this will lead to an absurd situation when the most primitive and technologically backward "samovars" whose owners did not invest in modernization will receive the largest subsidy. Another option is to issue subsidies in a "manual mode" based on the importance of a particular plant for providing fuel to Russian consumers (this is how small simple refineries are cut off). But such a mechanism is not very fair in relation to the owners of large modernized refineries, who may not need a subsidy.

At the end of 2016, an option was discussed to link the issuance of subsidies to the supply of gasoline to the domestic market (de facto, this is subsidizing the production of gasoline). The problem with this option, in particular, is that then LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft, the owners of relatively new refineries, would receive the largest specific amount of subsidies, while Rosneft, which will bear the main burden in the form of an increase in the MET, will receive relatively less and to In addition, it will have to modernize its facilities faster. In addition, such subsidies would be "eternal", while the Gaidar Institute proposes to cancel them rather quickly.

“Completion of the tax maneuver is necessary, but when proposing a sharp abolition of export duties, one must take into account that this will lead to a significant reduction in oil refining and the closure of a number of large refineries,” says Sergey Yezhov from Vygon Consulting. Even assuming that all refineries follow the path of modernization, the logistical backlog of refineries in the depths of Russia will not allow them to successfully compete with refineries near the border and in ports when exporting petroleum products. This gap will need to be compensated by subsidies from the budget, which is not included in the proposal of the experts.

"We proceed from the fact that the tax maneuver will continue, and from January 1, 2017, the export duty should be 30%, and the mineral extraction tax - in accordance with the level of increase that was planned," he said.

According to the agency, earlier the international rating agencies Fitch and S&P reported that the Russian authorities could extend the increased tax burden into 2017 by keeping the oil export duty freeze or reducing it not as much as the tax maneuver suggests.

tax maneuver

The tax maneuver in the oil and gas industry, effective from January 1, 2015, provides for a reduction in export duties on oil to 30% in 2017 from the current 42%, with a parallel increase in the MET rate on oil to 919 rubles per ton in 2017 from 857 rubles per ton in 2016.

Initially, for 2016, it was planned to reduce the rate for calculating the export duty on oil from 42% to 36%, but it was decided to “freeze” the rate at 42%. At the same time, the legislation still enshrines a reduction in the rate to 30% in 2017.

In 2015, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to use an unpredictable dollar exchange rate in calculating the price coefficient for the MET. So, if in the department's forecasts the expected dollar exchange rate was in the range of 63.5-66 rubles per dollar, then for the MET formula the rate will be 43.8-50 rubles per dollar. This approach would allow the budget to receive additional income in 2016-2018 in the amount of 1.6 trillion rubles. However, the Ministry of Finance was forced to abandon this idea due to the stiff resistance of other departments and oil companies.

Over the past few years, Russia has been reforming taxation in the oil sector. The main medium-term goal of the reform is to reduce the export duty rates for oil, their gradual alignment with the export duty rates for dark and, to some extent, light oil products, as well as to increase the rates of the mineral extraction tax. The implementation of this very reform vector in the laws adopted in 2013-2014 was called the tax maneuver.

The purpose of the maneuver is to enable both oil producers and the budget to adapt to the sharp drop in world oil prices without creating additional problems for the domestic market of petroleum products.

A package of documents on the completion of the tax maneuver in the oil industry was submitted on June 22. The day before, during a government meeting, the parameters of the forthcoming reform were finally agreed upon.

We are talking about two bills: one of them provides for a gradual reduction from the current 30% (of the cost of oil) to zero export customs duty. The second bill provides for a uniform increase in mineral extraction tax (MET) rates for oil and gas condensate production by the amount of the export duty reduction.

Thus, the export duty within six years will be completely replaced by the increase in the MET. It is assumed that the law will be adopted this year and the maneuver will begin on January 1, 2019.

The upcoming tax maneuver in the past two years has been a stumbling block between and the industry. proposed to postpone it until the completion of the modernization of Russian refineries and the launch of a single market for oil, oil products and gas within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (). current tax regime, in particular the export duty, in fact subsidizes oil refining. The Ministry of Finance insisted on completing the maneuver and maintaining support only for those oil production facilities that provide a high degree processing.

The adopted variant of the reform provides for the preservation of the existing severance tax benefits. It is about reduced tax rate for production at new offshore fields, gas condensate for LNG production, benefits for fields in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. Also reduced rates The MET will remain for fields with difficult conditions: depleted, small areas of subsoil, fields with hard-to-recover oil.

In addition, there is a mechanism for providing tax deduction MET on the produced gas condensate when it is directed to the production of technical propane-butane, by analogy with the receipt of a MET tax deduction when it is directed to the production of a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons.

It is proposed to establish excise tax deductions for oil refiners, taking into account the volumes of class 5 high-octane motor gasoline and diesel fuel produced from petroleum feedstock, as well as taking into account the level of oil prices on world markets, the average wholesale prices for the sale of such petroleum products in Russia and the prices of the export alternative in Russia. oil products.

The excise rate for straight-run gasoline, benzene, paraxylene, orthoxylene used in petrochemistry is set taking into account a correction factor that gradually increases its value over six years, starting from January 1, 2019, by the amount of the reduction in the export customs duty rate for oil, specify in the government.

Fuel price spikes

That is, we are talking about a small, but still increase in the tax burden on the industry. Judging by the figures, on average, companies will receive less than $1-1.5 per barrel of oil produced. On the other hand, this is not so much, especially given the favorable conditions in which the industry exists today - rather expensive oil and a cheap ruble, the expert adds.

In any case, one should not expect that the problem of rising gasoline prices will be solved in Russia, targeted relief for producers of high-quality gasoline will not solve the problem of reducing the margins of most refineries and the growth of domestic oil prices,

notes the managing partner of Veta Expert Group.

Accordingly, already in 2019 we can observe new outbreaks of fuel prices at gas stations, he adds.

Additional concessions will be applied to those oil producers who produce high-quality Euro-5 gasoline and diesel fuel, in which case they will receive a part of the excise tax paid by refineries from the budget, Zharsky draws attention.

Although, in general, the reform in the industry will lead to additional stimulation of oil companies to sell more oil and oil products on the domestic market than abroad, budget revenues as a result of such a maneuver can fluctuate greatly, since the draft law allocates a lot to the application of additional benefits for the severance tax, as well as the return excises, the expert believes.

At the same time, excises

An unexpected "addition" to the package of bills to complete the oil and gas tax maneuver was the indexation of excises for 2021. Usually the government makes calculations of excise taxes together with the preparation of the federal budget for the upcoming three-year period and presents them as a separate amendment to tax code autumn. Indexation is carried out after the government decides on the macroeconomic forecast and the main directions of the budget, tax and customs tariff policy.

There was no normal procedure this time. The explanation given in the accompanying documents is as follows: excisable goods in 2021 are indexed "for the inflation rate, which, according to forecasts, will be 4%".

“At the same time, excise rates for the period 2019-2020 remain at the level established by the current tax legislation,” the bill specifies. Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development was actually ordered not to forecast inflation above 4% for 2021 during the preparation of the budget, regardless of the macroeconomic situation.

Otherwise, in the fall, rates for 2021 are subject to revision. In particular, excises on ethyl alcohol will increase by 4 rubles from 111 rubles per liter in 2020 to 115 rubles per liter in 2021. The excise tax on alcohol stronger than 9% will increase by 22 rubles to 566 rubles per liter. Wine will rise in price by 1 ruble from 19 rubles in 2020 to 20 rubles in 2021. The excise tax on cigarettes will increase by 79 rubles from 1,966 rubles. per thousand cigarettes in 2020 to 2,045 rubles. in 2021.

At the same time, the bill expanded the list of excisable goods. From January 1, 2019, a new excise tax will be introduced on hookah mixtures in the amount of 457 rubles per 1 kg. In 2020, it will be raised to 467 rubles, and in 2021 to 495 rubles.

According to Finam analyst Alexei Korenev, this year the Central Bank "is unlikely to be able to keep inflation around 4%." It remains to be seen what effect the VAT increase to 20% will have. Most likely, it will affect the acceleration of prices in the range from 1.6 to 2%. At the same time, an increase in excises and the inclusion of new excisable goods in the bill will lead to an increase in inflation from 0.2 to 0.5%. The fact that inflation remained within 2.4% in May of this year is largely due to the favorable market conditions, Korneev believes.

“It is pointless to predict the inflationary effect for 2021, since both excise rates and inflation estimates will change at least twice more during the adoption of the budget in 2019 and 2020,” the chief economist of FG BCS told Gazeta.Ru.

“It’s just that at this stage it’s worth taking into account that the government plans to increase excises, but it is possible that by the beginning of 2021 these plans will be adjusted,” the expert emphasized.