The registered unemployment rate is calculated as a ratio. Distribution of labor resources
In accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployed citizens include persons at the age established to measure the economic activity of the population. These persons must meet the following conditions:
- do not have a job (income-generating occupation);
- search for a job, i.e. contact the public (private) employment service, use or place advertisements in the press, directly contact the administration of enterprises (employers), use personal connections or take steps to create your own business;
- be ready to start work during the week being examined.
Also, trainees, students, pensioners and disabled people are taken into account as unemployed if these persons have been looking for work and are ready to start work.
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed people of the corresponding age group to the number of the population that is economically active (of a certain age group). This indicator is calculated as a percentage.
Unemployment rate formula
The unemployment rate formula is calculated by the ratio of the share of unemployed to the total labor force (%):
u=U/L * 100%
Here u is the unemployment rate,
U – number of unemployed,
L – number of employed and unemployed (labor force)
Types of unemployment
There are several types of unemployment, for each of which the calculation of the unemployment rate formula has its own characteristics:
- Structural unemployment, which is the most widespread, since its presence is associated with constant changes in market demand for goods (if demand falls, then the need for specialists will decrease). The unemployment rate formula for structural unemployment is:
UBstr = Qstr / HR * 100%
Here UBstr is the level of structural unemployment,
Qstr - number of structural unemployed;
- Frictional unemployment, which characterizes the lack of employment of citizens who have certain qualifications. This type occurs when certain enterprises are closed or production capacity declines. The formula for the unemployment rate for this type is:
UBfr = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBfr is the level of frictional unemployment,
Qfr - the number of frictional unemployed;
NRS - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
- Seasonal unemployment associated with work that is seasonal in nature. Unemployment rate formula for seasonal unemployment:
UBses = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBsez is the level of seasonal unemployment,
Qsez—the number of seasonal unemployed;
NRS - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
- Cyclical unemployment associated with economic cycles that constantly occur in different countries. During a decline in GDP, cyclical unemployment begins, which is characterized by the level of unemployed labor due to a temporary reduction in production capacity and their release from the production process. Cyclical unemployment rate formula:
UBcik = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBcik is the level of cyclical unemployment,
Qcycl—the number of cyclical unemployed;
NRS - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
Other unemployment indicators
In order to carry out a more in-depth analysis of unemployment, it is not enough to know the methods of calculation for the corresponding types of unemployment.
The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is often used. Unemployment rate formula:
UBest = UB str + UB fr
Here UBest is the natural unemployment rate,
UB str – level of structural unemployment,
UBfr is the level of frictional unemployment.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1
Unemployment rate? This is the proportion of the number of unemployed in the economically active population.
Economically active population (employed labor force) ? This is the part of the population that provides the creation of goods and services.
The unemployment rate is one of the most important indicators of a country's economic situation, although it cannot be considered an infallible barometer of the health of the economy.
In Russia, the economically active population in 2002 amounted to 72.2 million people, of which the unemployed? 7.1 million people, hence the official unemployment rate? 9.0%1.
At the same time, the number of unemployed citizens registered with the employment service2 in 2000 and 2001 is 1.5%.
As for the forecast for the labor market, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the overall unemployment rate in 2005 will be 10.3%.
Unemployment? a relatively new phenomenon for Russia.
Based on these indicators, we see that solving the problem of maintaining employment requires the adoption of urgent government measures both at the federal level and at the level of the constituent entities of the Federation.
Table 32.1
The persistent gap between total and registered unemployment is one of the most paradoxical features of the Russian labor market. It has been established that a very small proportion of Russian unemployed people apply for official registration with state employment services. This phenomenon has become one of the main “mysteries” of the Russian labor market.
As for registered unemployment, the basis for its measurement is administrative information about clients of public employment services (PSE). Indicators of registered unemployment have the advantage that they are based on continuous statistical observation and are characterized by a high degree of efficiency (calculated monthly). They perform an important instrumental function, providing an information base for the formation of public policy on the labor market and opening up opportunities for assessing its scope and degree of effectiveness.
The basic principles for registering the unemployed are established by the Employment Law. In accordance with it, officially unemployed are recognized as able-bodied citizens who do not have work and income, are registered with the employment service in order to find suitable work, are looking for work and are ready to start it (clause 1 of article 3). Although this definition refers to the criteria of being unemployed, looking for work, and being willing to start work, methodologically, estimates of registered unemployment differ from estimates of total unemployment. Not everyone who qualifies as unemployed according to the standard ILO definition is eligible to receive official unemployed status.
There are several alternative indicators that can be used to assess the scale of search activity in the labor market as it is monitored by public employment services:
The total number of people who applied to the State Employment Service for employment issues;
The number of persons not engaged in labor activities who are registered with employment services. These do not include those who, having a job, are looking for alternative or additional employment, as well as full-time students;
Number of persons registered in the State Employment Service as unemployed. Compared to the previous one, this category is narrower and does not include: a) young people under 16 years of age; b) pensioners; c) persons who refused two options for suitable work within 10 days from the date of application, as well as persons who refused two options for professional training or two offers of paid work (if they did not have a profession and were looking for work for the first time); d) persons who did not appear without good reason within 10 days from the date of registration in order to search for suitable work to the employment service authorities to offer them suitable work; e) persons who did not appear within the period established for their registration as unemployed. The unemployed also do not include persons who have undergone initial registration and are awaiting a decision on assigning them the status of unemployed, and persons sent for training and retraining, who are classified as employed for this period;
The number of unemployed people who have been granted unemployment benefits. The benefit is not provided to all registered unemployed people. In particular, it is not provided to those who have already exhausted the right to receive it.
At the beginning of 2000, in Russia, taking into account hidden unemployment, its actual level reached 20–23%, and in a number of regions of the country? significantly higher than this average value: in the regions of the North, small towns of Russia, a number of closed zones, areas where light and coal industry enterprises are located, and in persistently depressed regions (in particular, the Caucasus), which are gradually turning into zones of stagnant unemployment.
Along with the concept of “unemployment,” is another, no less important concept used in economic analysis? "full employment".
Unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of the active labor force, that is, that part of the working-age population that is actively searching for work. This ratio is expressed as a percentage.
The term is widely used in economic theory "full employment", which is generally defined as a situation in the economy when all resources suitable for it are involved in production.
In relation to the labor market, “full employment” does not mean the absolute absence of unemployment. Since frictional and structural unemployment always exist, “full employment” is always less than 100% of the working population. In other words: at “full employment” the unemployment rate is equal to the sum of frictional and structural unemployment, cyclical unemployment is zero.
The unemployment rate at "full employment" is called "natural rate of unemployment"(i.e. the total value of frictional and structural unemployment). Modern statistics place it at 5-6% of the active labor force. As noted, the “natural rate of unemployment” is considered in theory (especially in the Keynesian school) as a phenomenon useful for the economy, since this part of the labor force can serve as a source of additional labor during a period of economic recovery.
The actual unemployment rate may deviate from the “natural” one. Lower rates were achieved in fairly rare cases. For example, during the Second World War and the post-war economic recovery, European countries experienced “overemployment” - the demand for labor was almost unlimited, overtime work, and the attraction of foreign labor were commonplace.
But a more stable state of the labor market is when actual unemployment is higher than “natural.” The entire post-war history of countries with developed market economies has been characterized by chronic unemployment. It not only exceeds the natural level, but does not decrease even in conditions of economic recovery.The real situation on the labor market may be distorted due to the fact that official statistics take into account as unemployed only those citizens who are registered with employment services as applicants for unemployment benefits. Those citizens who are engaged in an independent search for work, or who have stopped searching, having lost hope of finding a job, are not taken into account by official statistics. In this regard, the concept of “hidden unemployment” is highlighted. To get the real picture, it is necessary to add to the official indicators those people who could work if they did not believe that looking for work was useless. Official statistics consider such people as having dropped out of the labor force. To eliminate this discrepancy between official and real unemployment rates, the International Labor Organization (ILO) methodology is often used, which involves conducting sample surveys among certain population groups. These surveys make it possible to determine the extent of hidden unemployment.
The lack of official data also lies in the fact that those citizens who do not have a permanent job and are forced to settle for casual, irregular earnings are not taken into account as unemployed. Persons working part-time (part-time) are considered as fully employed.
Topic 3. Employment and unemployment as current problems
Modern labor market (End of lecture)
1. Concept, principles and forms of employment. The current state of employment and use of labor resources in Russia.
2. Unemployment: features, classification and socio-economic consequences. Unemployment indicators.
3. Hidden forms of employment and unemployment.
4. Employment policy in the Russian Federation and determination of its effectiveness.
By duration unemployment is divided into short-term (up to 4 months), long-term (from 4 to 8 months), long-term (from 8 to 18 months), stagnant (more than 18 months).
Summarizing the above, we can conclude that unemployment can be caused by various reasons: economic downturn (cyclical), natural factors (seasonal), structural changes (structural, technological), imperfect information in the labor market (frictional) and can have different durations . The combination of the above factors of unemployment forms its overall level in the country.
By nature of manifestation a distinction is made between open unemployment, including registered unemployment, and hidden unemployment.
Open unemployment does not require special comments, it does not hide, does not disguise itself, people publicly declare their desire to work and are actively searching for it. Registered unemployment - This is part of open unemployment, which is registered with the employment service through the application of citizens seeking work there.
Hidden unemploymentwill be discussed in more detail in the next question on the topic.
The level of hidden unemployment is determined by special surveys, as well as expert assessments of managers of large enterprises, government bodies, employment service specialists, and scientists.
Hidden unemployment will be discussed in more detail in the next question on this topic.
Unemployment figures
Unemployment is the object of attention of government agencies. Its size, composition and duration are monitored and researched by the Government of the Russian Federation represented by its bodies - Rostrud, Rosstat, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, as well as local authorities.
The study of unemployment is based on a system of indicators obtained on the basis of official (monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual) statistical materials of Rosstat, on the basis of special sample surveys of households on employment problems, “Statistical Bulletins” and other materials (for example, “Monitoring of registered unemployment”). unemployment"), prepared and published by Rostrud.
In Russian statistics, as in the statistics of many other countries, two ways of measuring unemployment are used: 1) according to registrations with employment services, 2) the results of regular labor force surveys, in which the status of the unemployed is determined according to the criteria of the International Labor Organization (ILO). Accordingly, two indicators are calculated and published: registered (explicit) And general (or “motovskaya”) unemployment. Possible discrepancies between them are explained by the fact that, firstly, some of the unemployed prefer to search for work without registering with state employment services; secondly, people who have jobs or represent the economically inactive population are often registered as unemployed in order to receive benefits. In cross-country comparisons, it is customary to use unemployment indicators based on the results of labor force surveys, since they are carried out using a single methodology and are free from the distorting influence of administrative practices for registering the unemployed that develop in different countries.
Let's look at the most general unemployment indicators.
1. Officially registered unemployment rate - this is the ratio of the number of registered unemployed to the number of economically active population based on statistical data calculated for a certain territory in average monthly, average annual terms or as of a certain date (for example, at the end of the year). For conditions of average annual abundance, this indicator is calculated using the following formula:
UZB = ZB / E A x 100%;
UZB is the level of unemployment registered in the i-th territory on an average annual basis, %; ZB - the average annual number of unemployed people registered in the i-th territory, people; E A - average annual number of economically active population in the i-th territory, people.
2. Level general unemployment - this is the ratio of the total number of unemployed, calculated in a certain territory through sample surveys as of a certain date, to the number of economically active population on that date. It is calculated using the formula
where is the unemployment rate; - number of economically active population; - number of employees.
U b = OB / E A x 100%;
U b - the level of general unemployment in the i-th territory as of a certain date, %; OB - the total number of unemployed, calculated in the i-th territory through sample surveys as of a certain date, people; E A - average annual number of economically active population in the i-th territory, people.
3. Frictional unemployment rate equal to the percentage ratio of the number of frictional unemployed to the total workforce:
Ufrict = Ufrict/ *100%
4. Structural unemployment rate calculated as the ratio of the number of structural unemployed to the total workforce, expressed as a percentage):
Ustruct = Ustruct/ *100%
5. Share of registered unemployment in the total number of unemployed- this is the ratio of the number of unemployed people registered on a certain date to the total number of unemployed people calculated in the i-th territory through sample surveys as of a certain date. It is found using the following formula:
UB = ZB / UB x 100%;
UB - the share of registered unemployment in the total number of unemployed in the i-th territory as of a certain date, %; ZB - the number of registered unemployed in the i-th territory as of a certain date, people.
6. Duration of unemployment - a value characterizing the average duration of job search by persons who had the status of unemployed at the end of the period under review, as well as by those unemployed who were employed during this period. This value is described by two indicators. The first indicator shows how many months all those who are listed as unemployed on the corresponding date have been unemployed. The second is how many months on average those persons with unemployed status who got a job in the period under review were unemployed.
7.An important indicator characterizing the state of the labor market is tension coefficient - the ratio of the number of unemployed people registered with employment services to the number of vacancies declared to the employment service, calculated in a certain territory in average monthly, average annual terms or as of a certain date (for example, at the end of the year). To calculate the indicator for a specific date, use the formula
HP = NZB / SV x 100%;
HP - coefficient of tension in the labor market in the i-th territory as of a certain date; VV - the number of vacancies from enterprises and organizations in the th territory declared to the employment service as of a certain date.
8. In all reformed economies, the transition to a market was accompanied by an increase in the number of not only the unemployed, but also people belonging to economically inactive population. The weakening of labor activity was caused by reduced employment opportunities for pensioners, increased difficulties for women in combining work with raising children (due to the closure of preschool institutions, etc.), and the emergence of a new category on the labor market - those who are desperate to find work.
At the same time, this meant approaching a more rational model of distribution of society's labor potential across areas of activity, characteristic of mature market economies. In the former socialist countries, the labor activity of the population was artificially maintained at an extremely high level and, even after a significant drop during the transition period, continues to remain higher than in many countries with a similar level of development (especially among women).
9. Labor market indicators are also: unemployment levels for certain categories of the population, for example youth and female unemployment; structure of the unemployed by gender, age, marital status, work experience; duration of unemployment as the time between the day a citizen is registered as unemployed and the day he is deregistered with the employment service at his place of residence; average duration of unemployment; the scale of public works and training in the direction of the employment service; reasons for unemployment, etc.
Analyzing the dynamics of unemployment in Russia, one can be convinced that in the pre-perestroika period there was practically no problem of employment. The society was dominated by the principle of universality and compulsory labor. Thus, from 1992 to 1998, there was a sharp increase in the level of unemployment in the country (an average of 1.6% per year), and reached its maximum at the time of the 1998 crisis - 14% as a result of the decline in production and structural changes in the economy. The following factors contributed to this trend: firstly, the privatization of domestic enterprises led to a reduction in workers, and there was a wave of mass layoffs; secondly, the insolvency and lack of competitiveness of enterprises led to their bankruptcy; Thirdly, economic restructuring contributed to an increase in structural unemployment.
 Figure 1 - Dynamics of the unemployment rate in Russia for 1992 - 2009. |
The current state of unemployment in the country was largely influenced by the 2008 crisis. The response to this crisis was a reduction in personnel costs in 62% of the companies surveyed (the survey was conducted by the research company HeadHunter, in which 222 Russian companies took part). The most common way to reduce employee costs is to reduce staff. A third of companies (33%) laid off some employees. Next in popularity are measures such as reducing wages (22%), shortening the working week (14%), and forced leave (16%). Another fairly common way is to reduce the social package (15%).
The crisis not only led to mass layoffs and unemployment in Russia, but also generated demand for a number of professions that were previously not very popular: lawyer specializing in bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions, innovation manager, staff reduction specialist, crisis manager, financial specialist monitoring and credit risks, etc.
As a result, in 2009 the highest level of unemployment since the 1998 crisis was reached. According to Rosstat, the number of people looking for work in Russia has increased to 7.7 million people, which is 10.2% of the economically active population.
Among the unemployed according to the ILO methodology, the share of women in September 2009 was 45.7% (3.51 million people), but this figure decreased by 1.6% compared to the previous year. The excess share of men among the unemployed is due to the fact that “male” sectors (such as the military-industrial complex, etc.) suffered large losses, while “female” sectors of the social sector (education, healthcare), on the contrary, increased.
According to 2009 data, the largest number of unemployed people are in the 20-24 age groups, as a result of the high degree of uncertainty faced by the “newcomer” in the labor market and frequent job changes (high level of frictional unemployment). The smallest is 55-59 years old as a result of the fact that people of pre-retirement age are not inclined to change jobs.
Among the unemployed, 31.4% are people whose period of searching for work does not exceed 3 months. 30.4% of the unemployed have been looking for work for one year or more. Among rural residents, the share of stagnant unemployment is significantly higher than among urban residents.
In September 2009, among the unemployed, the share of people who left their previous place of work due to layoffs or reductions in the number of workers (structural unemployment) was 16.2%, and the share of people who left their previous place of work due to voluntary dismissal was 19 .8 percent (friction.
Considering the unemployment rate by region of Russia, the following groups can be distinguished (Table 1). After analyzing the table, we can conclude that high unemployment rates are observed in regions with high populations, but with insufficient economic development to provide the working population with work. Low unemployment rates - in industrial regions and in regions that are massively creating new jobs in market industries.
A distinctive feature of unemployment at present is its hidden nature. The regions of the Northeast and Far East are characterized by the largest scale of hidden unemployment. People in these regions tend to look for work themselves, not trusting the employment service. Also, a significant part of the population is employed in the criminal sphere.
Table 1 - Classification of regions depending on level
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In 2010 in Russia, despite overcoming the consequences of the crisis, the unemployment rate still remains high. Thus, according to ILO calculations, in September of this year there were 5 million unemployed Russians. One in seven out of a hundred people falls under the definition of “unemployed”, hence the unemployment rate is 7 percent. Compared to the previous year, the figure decreased by 3.2 percent. However, the post-crisis consequences are still actively making themselves felt: part of the workforce turned out to be unclaimed, for example, due to the transition to new technologies in industry, or to electronic accounting.
The Federal Service for Labor and Employment, which has been under the jurisdiction of the Russian Ministry of Health and Social Development since mid-2004, and its territorial bodies work to help the unemployed find suitable work, and also maintain statistics reflecting their activities. In the periodically published bulletin “Main Indicators of the Activities of Employment Service Bodies,” Rostrud provides the following data:
■ number of registered job seekers - total;
■ of them - persons who have been assigned unemployment benefits;
■ number of persons registered - total;
■ of them - not engaged in labor activities;
■ number of persons recognized as unemployed;
■ the number of persons who have been granted unemployment benefits;
■ number of persons deregistered;
■ the need for workers declared by enterprises and organizations;
■ the number of people who have completed vocational training in the direction of the employment service, etc.
Such information is provided not only for the country as a whole, but also for each of the seven federal districts, as well as for each of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Materials are compiled using the balance sheet method: at the beginning of the reporting period, for the reporting period and at the end of the reporting period.
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Unemployment is a phenomenon characteristic of all countries of the world. According to the International Labor Organization, it covers almost the entire economically active population of the world, which is either unemployed or underemployed.
Unemployment in some industrialized countries of the world and CIS countries at the beginning of the 21st century. characterized by the data given in table. 2.
Noteworthy is the high level of unemployment in the countries of the former socialist camp - Poland, Bulgaria, as well as in the former republic of the USSR - Georgia. The unemployment rate in Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany is comparable in size. In such prosperous countries as Switzerland and Norway, unemployment also occurs, but its level is 2-3 times lower than in Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. USA, Japan and Great Britain at the beginning of the 21st century. had a moderate level of unemployment, although there are known periods when unemployment there was catastrophically high.
In many developing countries, the majority of workers work in low-productivity, low-wage jobs with harsh working conditions. Since October 2008 and in 2009, due to the global financial crisis, the unemployment rate in most developed countries of the world has increased sharply.
Attitude towards unemployment as a socio-economic phenomenon was not always unambiguous and changed over time. At the beginning of the 20th century, when the sizes
unemployment on a global scale was quite high, it was believed that it was a great social evil, which the state must fight with all means and methods. In the middle of the 20th century, in the conditions of building societies with a social market economy, a new view of unemployment as a social phenomenon, which, due to its episodic nature, did not pose serious problems for the state, developed.
Currently, attitudes towards unemployment depend on its type and duration. Short-term frictional unemployment has more positive aspects than negative ones. Structural - caused by scientific and technological progress and the natural process of improving production. Both of these types of unemployment are natural and do not require the adoption of any significant measures to prevent them, except that it is necessary to organize retraining of personnel in accordance with the requirements of the labor market.
Cyclical unemployment, accompanied by long-term and
worthy of its forms - most destructive for society, it
causes significant economic, moral and social harm to the population
social damage and requires active government measures to overcome it.
lenition, preventing stagnant unemployment or reducing it
level.
Long-term and persistent unemployment entails serious economic and social costs. Among economic consequences of unemployment let's name the following:
Underproduction, underutilization of society's production capabilities. American economist Arthur Okun substantiated and quantified the relationship between the unemployment rate and the volume of gross national product (GNP), according to which an excess of the unemployment rate above its normal natural level by 1% leads to a lag in GNP production from its potential level by 2.5% (Oken's law).
A significant decrease in the standard of living of people who find themselves unemployed, since work is their main source of livelihood;
An increase in the tax burden on the employed due to the need for social support for the unemployed, payment of benefits and compensation, etc.
Main among social consequences are:
Increased political instability and social tension in society;
Aggravation of the crime situation, since a significant number of offenses and crimes are committed by non-working persons;
An increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, mortality from alcoholism, and the overall volume of deviant behavior (behavior with various deviations);
Deformation of the personality of the unemployed and his social connections, expressed in the appearance of depression in life among involuntarily unemployed citizens, their loss of qualifications and practical skills; aggravation of family relations and family breakdowns, reduction of external social connections of the unemployed.