Give examples from the history of world economic crises. Top world's largest financial crises

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Introduction

1. The concept and essence of financial crises

1.1 Financial crises as part of the economic system

1.2 The largest financial crises of the twentieth century

2. Current financial and economic crisis

2.1 Causes and manifestations of the financial crisis

2.2 Forms of manifestation of financial crises

3. Global financial crisis in Russia

3.1 The real sector of the Russian economy in times of crisis

3.2 Anti-crisis measures of the Russian government

Conclusion

Literature

INconducting

financial crisis

The topic of crisis is one of the most popular today. The whole world is now literally in a fever from the word “crisis”. It is called the banking crisis, financial crisis, economic crisis, global crisis, and also the crisis in Russia. The media is throwing out more and more negative information, and every day analysts' forecasts are becoming more frightening. Today, the words “financial crisis” are on the lips not only of company owners and top managers, but also of ordinary workers.

The relevance of the research topic is determined by the fact that the search for ways to prevent financial crises has become a problem for the world community. This is due to the increasing risk of crises in the context of economic, including financial, globalization. As a result, crisis shocks in different segments of the financial market have become more frequent, and their spread as a result of a chain reaction periodically takes the form of an avalanche. Financial crises contribute to a slowdown in the rate of economic development of countries and lead to negative social consequences.

The purpose of the course work is to analyze the global financial crisis of 2008.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1) become familiar with the theory of economic crises;

2) find out the features and consequences of the financial crisis of 2008;

3) identify directions and evaluate the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures;

4) analyze the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators of Russia;

5) determine the consequences of the crisis.

The object of study in the course work is the economic crisis itself, as a macroeconomic phenomenon, and the subject is the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators of Russia.

1 . The concept and essence of financial crises

1.1 financial crises as part of the economic system

A financial crisis is a sharp decrease in the value of any financial instruments. During the 19th and 20th centuries, most financial crises were associated with banking crises and resulting panics. The most famous crisis of this kind was the beginning of the Great Depression. The term is also often applied to situations in stock markets when so-called “economic bubbles” burst.

“Financial crisis” in everyday speech means lack of money, difficulties with cash.

The development of global monetary and credit relations is accompanied by outbreaks of financial crises. Before the formation of the world economy, financial shocks engulfed the national systems of individual countries. In the last century they began to acquire an international character. The clearly expressed international nature of financial crises manifested itself in the 30-90s, which belonged to the lower phase of the long wave of development of a market economy. To a large extent, financial crises have become a reflection of ongoing structural changes in the global economic system.

There is a debate among economists about whether a complex classification of international crises is needed, or whether all crises have common features and characteristics, which allows us to talk about a single crisis model. Most experts believe that it is justified to separate the two types of systemic crises.

The first type assumes that as a result of the weak positions of a particular national currency, capital owners seek to withdraw their assets from this currency, and “capital flight” is observed, which leads to general economic difficulties. In this case, much depends on which currency is going through difficult times: if it is the currency of a developing state, then the crisis will be limited to national or regional borders, but if it is a currency of international importance (for example, the dollar), then the crisis becomes global.

The second type of crisis is called “contagious” by some experts, since it does not relate to a single national currency, but is associated with distrust in one or another type of asset or security (for example, a fall in prices for real estate, land or banking sector assets). In this case, there is a chain reaction that is difficult to stop, even if the situation in the economy that is the source of the “infection” has already returned to normal.

The international financial crisis is understood as a deep disorder of credit and financial systems in a number of countries, leading to sharp imbalances in international monetary systems and interruption of their functioning. A financial crisis usually, to one degree or another, simultaneously affects various areas of the global financial system. The center of financial crises is money capital, and the immediate sphere of manifestation is credit institutions and public finances.

There are cyclical and special international financial crises. The former are harbingers of economic crises of production, the latter arise regardless of the economic cycle under the influence of special reasons. But the latter also affect the economy and foreign economic relations through reverse reflection. When a deliberate motivation for the development of a crisis is carried out, a pseudo-crisis occurs - this is the manifestation of crisis symptoms in a “healthy” economic system. A pseudo-crisis can be provoked, for example, with the aim of ousting competitors from the market, as well as veiling certain actions of business participants.

Thus, the main feature of a crisis is that, even being a local or micro-crisis, like a chain reaction, it can spread to the entire system or the entire development problem. Because there is an organic interaction of all elements in the system, and problems cannot be solved separately.

1 . 2 The biggest financial crisesXX century

History knows many global crises: comprehensive or affecting a narrow circle of countries, protracted and less prolonged - their causes, as a rule, are always different, and the consequences are extremely similar. Crisis phenomena leave their mark not only on the economies of countries, but also on human destinies, turning many people (sometimes even the wealthiest) into beggars literally in a day.

The 20th century was rich in global economic crises. The First and Second World Wars played a significant role in this, during which the financial markets of countries turned into “ruins”, like cities after bombing.

The series of crises of the twentieth century opens with the crisis of 1907, which affected 9 countries. Its reasons are purely economic, expressed in the Bank of England increasing the discount rate to 6% from the original 3.5%. The purpose of such actions by Great Britain was the desire to replenish its gold reserves. The influx of capital into the country turned out to be simply incredible, with the United States becoming its main source. Accordingly, in the United States itself, this led to negative consequences: a stock market crash, a decline in business activity, a liquidity crisis and a protracted economic recession. These events immediately affected Italy, France and some other countries.

The global financial crisis of 1914 arose in the run-up to the First World War. Its reason was the complete sale of securities issued by foreign issuers. States needed monetary resources to finance ongoing military operations, and the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France and some other countries sold their securities without hesitation. This global crisis is perhaps the only one of all that did not develop according to the “domino principle”, but arose in most countries almost at the same time. Global and national markets for goods and money have collapsed. In a number of countries, the situation was saved thanks to the intervention of Central Banks.

The First World War also ended with the crisis of 1920-1922, caused by post-war deflation amid an economic recession, as well as currency and banking crises in a number of countries.

There are many “dark” days in the history of crises, and most of them are associated with the United States. It was with “Black Thursday” on October 24, 1929 that the next world crisis began, which turned into a great depression that affected the whole world. It all started with a sharp drop in the Dow Jones index and stock prices on the New York stock market. After the end of World War I, the US economy experienced an unprecedented rise, and the securities market became an attractive platform for investment by other countries, which caused an outflow of capital from Latin America and Europe. The collapse of the stock market amid tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve led to multiple stock crises around the world. This was immediately followed by a decline in production in all countries affected by the crisis, by an average of half, and as a consequence - unemployment on a huge scale. Under the dominance of the “gold standard” system, the authorities of many states were unable to make the necessary cash injections into the economy, which only aggravated the situation. The crisis dominated the world until 1933, and its echoes were felt until the 40s of the last century.

After the end of World War II, the first crisis that affected several countries at once was the crisis of 1957. It struck the USA, Canada, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and a number of other countries of the capitalist system. The crisis continued until mid-1958.

The 1973-1974 crisis was called the oil crisis because it was caused by a sharp and unprecedented increase in oil prices, which increased by almost 400% (from 3 to 12 dollars per barrel). Part of the reason for this phenomenon was the decrease in oil production in Arab countries, and partly the Israeli war against Syria and Egypt. All allied countries of Israel (including the United States) stopped receiving oil supplies from Arab countries. During the crisis, the dependence of the economies of developed countries on energy prices was clearly exposed.

And again, the United States experiences a black day - “Black Monday” on October 19, 1987, when another collapse of the country’s stock market occurs due to a sharp drop in the Dow Jones Industrial index by 22.6%. Following the United States, the stock markets of Canada, Australia, South Korea, and Hong Kong also collapsed.

The 1998 crisis turned out to be one of the most difficult in history for Russia. Devaluation, default... The causes of the crisis lay in the huge amount of public debt, the low level of prices for raw materials in the world, as well as the large debt of the state to repay state bonds, the deadlines for which had already passed.

Next up is the global financial crisis of 2008. Starting with the problems of the largest US companies, the crisis quickly developed into a global financial crisis, and the “domino principle” came into play here.

Thus, financial globalization and the rapid development of financial markets, an increase in the number of participants and the volume of transactions, and an abundance of instruments, including new ones, contribute to the growth of losses when crisis phenomena occur.

2 . Modern financial and economic crisis

2 . 1 causesemergenceAndmanifestations of financialcrisis

Global financial crisis is a persistent financial crisis of countries that are part of the global financial system, based on the dominance of the American financial system over other systems.

Figure 1. Map of the spread of the global financial crisis in 2008: - countries in which the global financial crisis led to recession; - countries that suffered greatly due to the financial crisis in 2008

Figure 1 shows that the crisis affected all economically developed countries. It was particularly acute in the USA and European countries. Latin America and African countries remained completely unaffected by the crisis.

Starting with the problems of the largest US companies, the crisis quickly developed into a global financial crisis, and the “domino principle” came into play here. One of the symbols of the global financial crisis was the collapse of the American bank Lehman Brothers. In Europe, the first sign of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the scandal surrounding the Société Générale bank, which, as a result of the fraud of its trader, lost 5 billion euros in stock trading.

The current financial crisis is characterized by both depth and scope. Perhaps for the first time since the Great Depression, it swept the entire world. The global financial crisis of 2008 (sometimes called the “great recession”) is a financial and economic crisis that manifested itself in September - October 2008 in the form of a very strong deterioration in key economic indicators in most developed countries, and the global crisis that followed at the end of the same year. recession.

The precursor to the 2008 financial crisis was the mortgage crisis in the United States, the first signs of which appeared in 2006 in the form of a decline in home sales and in early 2007 developed into a subprime mortgage crisis. Quite quickly, reliable borrowers also felt problems with lending. Gradually, the mortgage crisis began to transform into a financial crisis and affected not only the United States. Bankruptcies of large banks began, banks were bailed out by national governments. Stock market prices fell sharply during 2008 and early 2009. The opportunities for companies to obtain capital when placing securities have been significantly reduced. In 2008, the crisis acquired a global character and gradually began to manifest itself in a widespread decrease in production volumes, a decrease in demand and prices for raw materials, and an increase in unemployment. However, there are more fundamental reasons behind the crisis, including macroeconomic, microeconomic and institutional. The leading macroeconomic reason turned out to be excess liquidity in the US economy, which, in turn, was determined by many factors:

Imbalances in international trade and capital flows.

The depreciation of the US dollar during 2002-2008 gave rise to a decrease in its use by a number of countries as a reserve currency, and even attempts to switch to other currencies in international payments, which led to crisis phenomena in certain areas of the US economy, overheating of economies in other countries and abnormal pricing in commodity markets.

The general cyclical nature of economic development;

Overheating of the credit market and the resulting mortgage crisis;

High prices for raw materials (including oil);

Overheating of the stock market.

The loose monetary policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve since the early 2000s has stimulated banks to issue loans. Average annual growth rate of bank consumer lending in 2003-2007. were at the level of 5%, the increase in consumer loans in the third quarter of 2007 amounted to 7.2%. The volume of mortgage loans issued increased from $238 billion in the first quarter of 2000 to $1,199 billion in the third quarter of 2003.

As the US economy entered a recession, there was a tendency for a gradual reduction in the volume of issued bank loans. In the third quarter of 2008, the volume of mortgage loans issued to the population amounted to only $415 billion (Fig. 2). The growth rate of consumer loans has decreased significantly - in November 2008, compared to October, their volume decreased by 3.7%.

Information asymmetry played a key role in the development of the current crisis. The structure of financial derivatives has become so complex and opaque that assessing the true value of financial companies' portfolios has become virtually impossible. Because the credit market could no longer effectively identify potentially defaulting borrowers, it fell into paralysis. The development of the situation in the financial sector has seriously affected the real sector of the economy. Soon after the problems in the financial system worsened, the United States entered a recession. The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a council of academic economists considered the official arbiter of when a country's recession begins and ends, announced in December 2008 that the US recession began a year ago - in December 2007.

Figure 2 - Mortgage loans in the USA (billions of dollars) as of December 2008

Gradually, the financial crisis in the United States began to spread throughout the world. American corporations have begun urgently selling assets and withdrawing money from other countries. According to Bank of England estimates, the total losses from the crisis in the economies of the US, UK and EU have already amounted to 2.8 trillion. Doll.

According to the US Department of Labor, in December 2008, the American economy lost 524 thousand jobs, and for the year as a whole - 2.6 million. This is the maximum figure since 1945, when the country's economy was being rebuilt on a peaceful basis. The unemployment rate in the US reached 7.2% - the highest level since 1992 (before the financial crisis - 4.4%). If we take into account the layoffs of part-time workers, it increased to 13.5% (at the end of 2007 - 8.7%).

The volume of new home construction in the United States in November 2008 decreased by 19% compared to the previous month. This is the lowest figure since the beginning of its observation. Compared to November 2007, the decrease was 47%. On an annualized basis, sales of new homes in November 2008 were 35.3% less than in November 2007.

Events in the US economy have had a negative impact on stock markets in developed and developing countries. Figure 3 shows the dynamics in 2007-2008. one of the main American stock indexes S&P 500 and the stock index for emerging markets MSCI EM, developed by Morgan Stanley (the data in the figure does not reflect the intramonth dynamics of the indices).

Figure 3. US and emerging market stock indices

In 2007, stock markets in developing countries grew at a faster pace than developed countries, driven by portfolio investments from the world's leading economies. In 2008, the massive influx of funds from abroad into developing markets ceased, and the dynamics of the stock index for developing countries practically repeats the dynamics of the leading American stock index. During 2008, the S&P 500 index fell by almost 40%, and the MSCI EM index fell by more than 50%.

Spending by state and municipal governments will only slightly soften the decline in economic activity. In response to lower-than-expected revenues and the need to balance the budget, they are cutting spending on goods and services and, according to BUK estimates, no real increase in spending on these purposes is expected in 2009.

Thus, the main macroeconomic reason that provoked the current global crisis was excess liquidity in the US market. Against this background, microeconomic factors also contributed to the onset of the crisis - the development of new financial instruments.

2 . 2 forms of manifestation of financial crises

The financial crisis includes the following phenomena:

Collapse of exchange rates;

Sharp rise in interest rates;

Withdrawal by banks en masse of their deposits in other credit institutions, restriction and termination of cash withdrawals from accounts (banking crisis);

Destruction of the normal settlement system between companies through financial instruments (settlement crisis);

Currency crisis;

Debt crisis.

Many factors determine the occurrence and development of financial crises. Often the causes of a crisis remain a mystery. Typically, the conditions for financial crises are violations and problems in the relationship between various types of assets in certain parts of the financial system. Thus, if there are signs of an unfavorable situation in the company or a deliberately created situation, shareholders begin to dump shares, which can cause a downward trend in stock exchange rates. When doubts arise about the reliability of banks, depositors tend to withdraw their deposits as quickly as possible, and since banks have limited liquid funds, they cannot immediately return a significant part of the deposits. Due to the interconnectedness of the elements of the economic system, a chain reaction may begin, leading to a financial crisis. Foreign capital is leaving the country, at the same time, and perhaps earlier, national capital is fleeing. Capital flight from the country leads to an increase in the demand for foreign currency. Even a high level of foreign exchange reserves may be unable to satisfy growing demand. The widespread use of information technology has led to crises that arise in national financial markets quickly becoming international in nature.

The global movement of capital, the development of offshore operations, and the reduction of the regulatory role of the state have increased the possibilities for purely speculative actions in the global financial system. These include operations that pursue the goal of extracting excess profits through the deliberate use of financial indicators (exchange rates, stock prices, discount rates). For this purpose, huge funds amounting to tens and hundreds of billions of dollars are being mobilized. There are opportunities for this.

There are about 4 thousand hedge funds in the world that specialize in speculative operations. They concentrate 400-500 billion dollars of liquid funds, which, if their actions are coordinated, can be used in any center to obtain speculative profits. According to the IMF, the 5-6 largest funds are capable of mobilizing up to 900 billion dollars to attack a particular national currency or stock market. Not all financial centers are able to withstand such pressure.

The last quarter of the last century was characterized by an increase in financial crises. Moreover, in developing countries they happened more often than in developed ones. Thus, currency crises occurred in more than 60 countries in the 1990s, including 41 countries with emerging markets. The financial systems of Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, Southeast Asian countries, and Japan experienced the greatest shocks.

Financial crises were a reflection of the instability of global economic development, its hierarchy, as well as structural imbalances in the field of mobilization and placement of capital, management of foreign exchange reserves in crisis countries. They showed that the most important reason for the emergence of financial crises was the massive attraction of foreign loan capital, especially in the short term. The ratio of short-term debt to total external debt before the crisis for developing countries in crisis was twice as high as for countries not in a crisis situation.

The accumulation of short-term debt and a significant portion of liabilities secured or indexed in foreign currency weakened the stability of national monetary systems. Large external imbalances (negative balance of payments, large interest payments, high share of short-term debt, predominance of external liabilities over assets, etc.) make the economy very sensitive to external changes, including changes in the cyclical development of developed countries, constant changes in international financial markets and exchange rate structures of leading currencies.

The financial crisis has a negative impact on the material production sector and capital formation. The most pressing problem is labor employment. As the crises developed in the 1990s, the countries affected by them lost up to 14% of their GDP at the annual level, and it took up to six years to restore the pre-crisis level of economic growth. Crises caused an increase in balance of payments deficits in crisis countries by more than 2% of GDP. The crises of the 90s had a negative impact on the development of the production and monetary sectors of the world economy. A sharp reduction in production in crisis-affected farms led to a decrease in the growth rate of foreign trade and increased competition due to changes in exchange rates.

Thus, financial crises have shown the need to rebuild the global financial system, introduce greater openness, improve reporting, and strengthen national economic policies.

3 . Global financial crisis in Russia

3 . 1 real sector of the Russian economy during the crisis

In Russia, the spread of the crisis, initially denied, began in September - October 2008. And it caused a contraction in aggregate demand. In the banking sector, the service sector, there is a reduction in personnel, in metallurgy, orders are being reduced, steel production is being reduced, in transport - the volume of cargo transportation, in the sectors of industry and the engineering complex they are preparing for a reduction in employment and are freezing orders. Banks are reducing the volume of production lending, reducing the issuance of consumer loans, etc.

The financial crisis in Russia as part of the global financial crisis did not arise on its own, but became possible due to the integration of the Russian economy into the world economy, when “any event abroad affects the value of Russian bonds and shares, liquidity, incomes of citizens and economic growth."

The causes of the crisis in Russia can be divided into two groups: external and internal. External ones had a greater impact on the financial system than internal ones.

External reasons include the following:

A sharp drop in oil prices from almost $150 to $40 per barrel (see Fig. 4).

Financial disaster in the United States and the subsequent chain reaction around the world.

Figure 4. Oil prices (dollars per barrel)

The global crisis has limited Russian companies' access to cheap foreign loans.

Internal causes of the financial crisis in Russia:

The Russian economy is highly dependent on energy prices (oil and gas);

Russia's commodity-export-oriented economy is faced with a situation where demand and prices for raw materials have fallen.

A feature of the Russian economy before the crisis was a large volume of external corporate debt with insignificant public debt, and the third largest gold and foreign exchange reserves of the state in the world. The weak banking system caused a liquidity crisis and a banking crisis in Russia. After which businesses stopped getting access to cheap loans. The financial crisis in Russia was aggravated by corporate debts, which are comparable to the gold and foreign exchange reserves, as well as the actions of the authorities in relation to business (Mechel, TNK-BP), Russian intervention in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, and a sharp outflow of foreign capital in August-September 2008 . This caused the first signs of an emerging crisis to appear.

The sharp drop in the RTS and MICEX stock indices (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange), the fall in prices for export products (raw materials and metals) began to affect the real sector of the economy in October - November 2008:

A sharp decline in industrial production began (see Fig. 5). In December 2008, the fall in industrial production in Russia reached 10.3% compared to December 2007 (in November - 8.7%), which was the deepest decline in production over the last decade; in general, in the 4th quarter of 2008, the fall in industrial production was 6.1% compared to the same period in 2007.

Figure 5 Volume of industrial production - the first wave of job cuts (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. Overall unemployment rate in the Russian Federation as a percentage of the economically active population.

For the first time, the country was faced with an economic crisis on a global scale, which could not be compared even with the crisis in Asian markets, which was the reason for the 1998 default. If at the beginning of 2008 the economic bloc of the government was struggling with prohibitive inflation, then at the end of the year it faced the prospect of the first economic recession in a decade.

2007 ended with the government's failure to control rising prices. According to official data, it reached 11.9 percent, which was much higher than previously planned.

Figure 7. Inflation. Consumer price index

Inflation in the first half of the year was not only a Russian problem, being evenly distributed among most countries of the world. Record prices for decades were recorded in the United States, the eurozone, China, India and Eastern European countries. Most of them were caused by the rapid rise in prices of agricultural products, oil and metals.

Figure 8. Ruble exchange rate per US dollar, average for the period

The government's attempts to contain the depreciation of the Russian ruble (see Fig. 8) led to losses of up to a quarter of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation. From the end of November 2008, the financial authorities embarked on a policy of “soft devaluation” of the ruble, which significantly accelerated the decline in industry in November - December 2008, forcing enterprises to curtail production and withdraw working capital to the foreign exchange market. Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves decreased by about 10% in the first quarter of 2009.

3 . 2 Anti-crisis measures of the Russian government

The limited resources and reserves of the government in conditions where a quick recovery from the crisis is becoming less and less likely is a prerequisite for a shift in economic policy from “operational-tactical” measures aimed at mitigating the crisis to measures aimed at overcoming it.

The overall goal of the system of anti-crisis measures implemented by the Russian Government and the Central Bank is to minimize the scale of the economic crisis and mitigate its consequences for the population and the economy.

In October - December 2008, when the global economic crisis began to have a serious impact on the Russian economy, the government began implementing anti-crisis measures aimed at solving the most urgent task at that time: strengthening the Russian financial system.

Since the beginning of the anti-crisis policy, the following priorities have been declared:

· support (ensuring stability) of the financial sector;

· social support for the population, preservation and creation of new jobs. This priority is of great importance, as it implies the protection of citizens from unemployment, indexation of pensions, that is, the fulfillment of obligations to Russians “in full.” Conducting co-financing of regional programs from the federal budget;

· support for individual sectors of the real sector of the economy that are most sensitive to the crisis based on stimulating domestic demand. In order to support the revival of the economy, measures will be taken to expand lending to enterprises and restructure the debt of the real sector. The provision of state guarantees for borrowings by city-forming enterprises will continue. Taking measures to stimulate demand, including in the automotive industry and housing construction;

· support for city-forming enterprises.

Anti-crisis measures of the first stage made it possible to prevent the crisis from growing and transforming into forms that threaten the fundamentals of the functioning of the economy. These measures included monetary and fiscal policy instruments that were aimed at ensuring the repayment of external debt by the largest banks and corporations, reducing the liquidity deficit of the main banks. Budget expenditures aimed at supporting the financial system exceeded 3% of GDP. These expenses were carried out through two channels: the provision of liquidity in the form of loans and through injections into the capital of the banking system. This made it possible to stabilize the banking system in conditions of extreme liquidity shortage and prevent panic among the population: the net outflow of deposits from the banking system stabilized, the growth of foreign currency deposits began, bankruptcy was avoided among large banks, and the process of consolidation of the banking sector was resumed.

Tens of billions of dollars from the budget were transferred to the accounts of insolvent banks in the form of loans. The state-owned Vnesheconombank has provided $50 billion in borrowed funds to Russian companies that are unable to cope with the payment of foreign currency debts. As a result, Russia finds itself in a pretty good position, being able to survive the current crisis. It has huge reserves of cash, and its banking system, although unstable, is not as large relative to the rest of the economy as in Western countries.

During the acute phase of the crisis, a shortening of the economic policy horizon was inevitable, but systematic monitoring of measures taken and a structured preliminary assessment of new measures will make it possible to lengthen it and link current government actions with previously stated strategic priorities.

After the completion of the cycle of taking “fire measures”, as well as with the awareness of the duration of the crisis, the objective need for a systematic assessment of the state’s anti-crisis policy in relation to the real sector of the economy increases.

Thus, in a very short time (practically from November 2008), a wide range of anti-crisis measures were announced to support the real sector of the economy, the implementation of which required not only the development and adoption of many regulatory legal acts, but also the formation of new “manual control” mechanisms for a number of tools. Many measures were implemented under strict time constraints and strong pressure from various interest groups.

At the same time, the implementation of anti-crisis policy made it possible to accelerate the implementation of a number of previously planned strategic measures, especially in terms of developing corporate regulation, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and improving tax regulation.

In this regard, it seemed important to reconstruct the objectives of anti-crisis policy, based on the composition and characteristics of the measures being implemented. Basically, anti-crisis measures are aimed at solving the following problems:

· expanding access of enterprises to financial resources (direct lending by state banks, financial development institutions, their capitalization; stimulating private lending by providing subsidies on interest rates and government guarantees; recommendations to banks on lending; expanding conditions for attracting capital based on the issue of shares and bonds and their repurchase authorized organizations);

· reducing the burden on business (tax burden, export customs duties, administrative burden; limiting the growth of tariffs for services and products of natural monopolies);

· mitigation of negative social consequences and development of the labor market (increase in unemployment benefits, co-financing of regional employment programs, restrictions on the use of foreign labor);

· stimulation of domestic demand (government procurement, advance payments, preferences for domestic producers, purchases and investment programs of natural monopolies, leasing, protective customs measures, subsidies for consumer loans);

· support for small and medium-sized businesses (co-financing of regional programs for the development of SMEs, Vnesheconombank SME lending programs), development of competition.

A number of measures are difficult to attribute to only one of the identified tasks. For example, some anti-crisis measures within the framework of social policy can also be considered in the context of stimulating domestic demand for the products of certain industries and entrepreneurship development.

The Russian government has put forward the following programs that will help combat the consequences of the global financial crisis:

1. Exchange rate policy;

2. Support for the banking system;

3. Support for the financial market and protection of Russian enterprises from hostile takeovers;

4. Tax and budget policy;

5. Tariff policy;

6. Promotion of employment;

7. Housing construction and assistance to citizens in the housing market;

8. Support for business activity in the real sector of the economy;

9. Oil industry;

10. Automotive industry;

11. Agricultural engineering;

12. Defense-industrial complex;

13. Small and medium businesses;

14. Air transportation;

15. Retail trade;

16. Agricultural-industrial complex;

17. Infrastructure projects;

18. Organizational support for the implementation of anti-crisis measures.

To increase the stability of the Russian economy, the state of the labor market and the situation at enterprises in the real sector of the economy are monitored. An action plan aimed at improving the situation in the financial sector and certain sectors of the economy was approved. And it is planned to adopt a number of legislative acts aimed at developing financial and banking infrastructure.

Conclusion

The course work included a detailed analysis of the global financial crisis of 2008. During its writing, the general theory of economic crises was considered, the features and consequences of the financial crisis of 2008 were clarified, the directions of anti-crisis measures were identified and their effectiveness was assessed, the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators were analyzed by comparing data for the previous and period under review, and prospects were outlined development of the Russian economy and measures to eliminate the consequences of the crisis. The set goal was achieved.

Based on the analysis of the work done, we can draw the following conclusion: in Russia, the beginning of 2010 can be considered the end of the financial crisis that began in 2008. All that remained of it were the consequences, which caused enormous devastating damage to the economy of our country and not only; the population of these countries also suffered greatly, being left without work and without a means of subsistence.

The causes of the Russian financial crisis of 2008-2009 lie far beyond the country's borders. The economic situation did not deteriorate overnight; it was preceded by a number of other processes, the consequences of which gradually accumulated and simply could not help but lead to what we have now.

It is precisely the set of signs that in the first half of 2008 foreshadowed the unfavorable development of the situation in the global economy that now definitely indicates that a turning point has occurred. The avalanche-like decline in markets and the economy has not only stopped as a whole, but after two to three months of uncertainty is being replaced by a movement in the opposite direction.

It will still take a lot of time to eliminate the consequences caused by the crisis. Not all sectors of the economy in the world and in Russia will recover in the same way; some will not even reach the heights and speeds of development that were observed before the crisis. But the global economy as a whole will be restored. The crisis has laid the preconditions for a structural restructuring of the world economy, and the uneven speed of recovery of various industries will ultimately lead to the fact that the post-crisis economy will have a different “power structure” than the one it had at the beginning of 2008.

I would like to hope that the leadership and economic experts of Russia will draw all the necessary conclusions from what happened, since serious errors in economic planning and distribution of financial resources have become obvious. The extreme vulnerability of the Russian economy and the low margin of its internal stability have become completely clear. It is very important that the systemic principles of development that the government adheres to are significantly revised in order to avoid the start of a new crisis. To do this, it is necessary to achieve self-sufficiency of the Russian economy in key industries, such as the food industry, agriculture, heavy industry and machine tool manufacturing, and critical high-tech sectors of the economy. It is necessary not only to create conditions for the accumulation of large reserves of energy carriers and other critical resources (for example, copper, titanium and aluminum), but also to develop technologies for the long-term storage of large volumes of grain and other food resources. A financial system is needed that can quickly adapt to internal flows only. Among the safest destinations for international trade and increased interdependence, it is not the United States and China that should be considered, but rather India and Germany. It is necessary to achieve modernization of the army - if only in order to direct the thoughts of potential opponents in a direction other than Russia with its dilapidated military machine.

Literature

1. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On Currency Regulation and Currency Control” dated December 10, 2003 No. 173-FZ.

2. Federal Law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)” dated July 10, 2002, No. 86-FZ, Art. 27.

3. Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ (as amended on July 19, 2009, as amended on September 22, 2009) “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia).”

4. Federal Law of December 2, 1990 No. 395-1 (as amended on April 28, 2009) “On Banks and Banking Activities.”

5. Gerasimenko V.V. Main trends in the development of the modern financial system // Economics. - 2009. - No. 6.

6. Money. Credit. Banks: textbook / G. E. Alpatov, Yu. V. Bazulin and others; Under. ed. V. V. Ivanova, B. I. Sokolova. - M.: TK Welby, Prospekt Publishing House, 2008.

7. International monetary, credit and financial relations: Textbook / pod. ed. L. N. Krasavina. - M.: “Finance and Statistics”, 3rd ed., revised. and additional - 2008

8. Finance: Textbook /pod. ed. Babich A. M., Pavlova L. N. - M.: 2009

9. Economic theory: textbook for universities / S. S. Nosov, ed. VLADOS Center, 2007

10. Tedeev A. A., Parygina V. A., Melnikov S. I. Budgetary law of the Russian Federation. - M.: Prior, 2010.

11. Financial principles of local self-government in the Russian Federation / Ed. V. M. Zuev, S. S. Kuznetsov: legal aspect. - M., 2008.

13. “Russian economy. Forecasts and trends" No. 2, 2010

14.IMF; Development Center calculations.

15. www. cbr. ru - Official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

16. www. bankersha. com - Banker's website.

17. Wikipedia / World recession of the late 2000s. / The global financial crisis of 2008 and the recession of the late 2000s / Access mode: http: //www. wikipedia. org/ wiki/World_financial_crisis, free.

18. Global recession of the late 2000s // http: //ru. wikipedia. org/

19. Macroindicators / Main macroeconomic indicators. Access mode: http: //www. icss. ac. ru, free.

20. World crisis / Economic crisis in Russia 2008 - 2009 and the world economic crisis / World economic crisis / Access mode: http: // www. mirovoy-crisis. ru/economic-crisis. php, free.

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1873-1896. Long depression

In May 1873, the collapse of the Vienna stock exchange began one of the most protracted financial crises in history. The reason is the rapid growth of real estate markets in Austria-Hungary and Germany. Developers were given huge loans, which many of them could not pay off. The panic that began on the stock exchanges of Europe spreads to the United States and then to Russia.

At the end of the 19th century, the governments of Austria-Hungary, France and Germany relied on capital construction. Banks were created to provide loans to developers. The first mortgage papers appeared. The debt burden of construction companies grew rapidly, and with it real estate prices. On Black Friday, May 9, 1873, the Vienna stock exchange crashed. Markets in Amsterdam and Zurich followed suit. After panic began on the stock exchanges in Europe, and German banks refused to extend debt to American companies, the crisis spread to the United States.

Already in September 1873, a large American railroad developer, the investment company Jay Cooke & Co., was unable to pay its debts. Due to the horrendous drop in prices, the New York Stock Exchange closed for several days. Mass bank failures began. Small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped issuing loans. Unemployment reached 25-30 percent. Due to widespread layoffs in Pennsylvania mines, workers staged pogroms. The panic began.

It is believed that J.P. Morgan, one of the most influential bankers in America, played a significant role in ending the financial crisis, who provided $62 million in gold to the US Treasury Department. This made it possible to pay off sovereign obligations. Paradoxically, corporations were created during the Depression that still exist today. For example, in 1876, Thomas Edison opened his laboratory. A few years later, he created the Edison General Electric Company, which in 1896 was the first in history to enter the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

1929-1939. The Great Depression

There is no consensus on the causes of the Great Depression. Among the most probable is the disproportion between the mass of goods and the volume of funds; stock exchange “bubble” (investment in production beyond what is necessary); an increase in customs duties on imports and, as a consequence, a decline in the purchasing power of the population. In addition to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Germany and France were particularly hard hit by the crisis.

One in six by 1933 was unemployed. The number of homeless people has increased sharply. Bethleem Steel fired 6,000 workers, evicted them from corporate-owned homes and demolished them to avoid paying property taxes. New York City Mayor Jimmy Walker urged movie theater owners to "show pictures that will lift the spirit of Americans and restore hope in them."

During the years of the crisis, about 40 percent of banks went bankrupt, their depositors lost $2 billion in deposits. After the Great Depression began, ordinary citizens hated bankers. From 1931 to 1935, the famous Bonnie and Clyde, who robbed banks and terrified bank employees, aroused sincere admiration among ordinary Americans.

By the beginning of the depression, automobile production had reached 5 million cars per year. By 1932, it had dropped to 1.3 million vehicles, that is, by 75 percent compared to 1929. General Motors founder William Durant lost more than $40 million, almost all of his money. GM barely survived the depression by pursuing harsh price-cutting policies.

1973-1975. Oil crisis

The largest energy crisis in history erupted in October 1973, when Syria and Egypt went to war with Israel. OPEC countries reduced oil production volumes and increased selling prices by 70 percent: first to the United States and the Netherlands, then to Israel's allies.

The number of unemployed people in the United States has reached 15 million. At the height of the crisis, university lecturer John Sperling drew attention to the large number of older students wanting to change their profession. This is how the idea of developing a retraining program arose. Sperling founded the first for-profit educational institution, the University of Phoenix, and the Apollo Group. Now there are about 90 institutions across America with a capitalization of about $10.6 billion.

At the peak of the crisis, the price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States rose from 30 cents to $1.2. In America, 85 percent of Americans used personal cars. The lines at gas stations stretched for kilometers. For some time, a rule was in effect: owners of cars with odd number plates were given the right to refuel only on odd days, and vice versa. The governments of Austria and Germany have introduced a ban on the use of cars on certain days of the week.

In the United States, authorities have taken exceptional measures to support ordinary citizens. The Bankruptcy Commission, formed in the United States in 1973, recommended changes to laws that would allow a person who declares personal bankruptcy to retain part of the property, making it legally unavailable to creditors. Thus, in Texas, a bankrupt had the right to keep his house, regardless of its value, and property worth up to 30 thousand dollars.

1987-1989. "Black Monday"

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed. Following the American stock market, in a wave of panic that caused an outflow of investors and a decrease in the capitalization of several largest transnational companies, stock exchanges in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea and many Latin American countries collapsed.

Since August 1982, the Dow Jones index has shown steady growth. By August 1987, the Dow Jones doubled to 2,700. Meanwhile, in the economy, rapid recovery growth after the recession of the 70s was replaced by stable development. In early October, the Dow Jones gradually began to decline, and on Friday, October 16, the index lost 5 percent. The only person who predicted the collapse that occurred three days later was Arch Crawford, the owner of a company providing astrological business consultations.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones stock index fell 22.6 percent. This crash was even worse than the stock market crash of October 28, 1929, which started the Great Depression. One possible explanation for the crash is the computer trading programs that traders used. They took into account the dynamics of the market and issued orders to buy if the market promised growth, and to sell if it was falling. And as soon as there was a turning point in the market dynamics after five years of growth, the programs issued a massive order to dump shares.

Contrary to the fears of economists and monetary authorities, there was no recession either in the US economy or in other countries whose stock exchanges felt the crash of 1987. The very next day, the Dow Jones index rose 12 percent. True, then there were again ups and downs, but not as significant as on Black Monday. The crisis affected to a greater extent those people who worked in the financial sector. In America, about 15 thousand brokers, traders, etc. lost their jobs. The Dow Jones reached its previous heights only in 1989.

1998-1999. Russian default

On August 17, 1998, the Government of the Russian Federation declares a default on government short-term bonds. The reasons for the crisis are an acute shortage of funds and Russia's huge public debt. The ruble against the dollar fell almost fourfold in six months, the confidence of the population and investors was undermined, and there were massive bankruptcies of small businesses and banks.

In May 1995, inflation in Russia was about 200 percent. To keep prices from rising, the government decides to finance the budget deficit by issuing government short-term debt. By May 1998, annual inflation had fallen to 7.5 percent. The GKO market operates according to a pattern: banks borrow money abroad, buy GKOs, and after a few months sell them and pay off their debts. The profitability of such operations is from 50 to 140 percent per annum. The Russian authorities are constantly issuing new loans to pay off previously issued ones. A financial pyramid is being created.

By the spring of 1998, monthly federal budget revenues amounted to 22 billion rubles, expenses - 25 billion rubles, and another 30 billion rubles to pay off domestic debt. On August 14, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced on television that there would be no default. August 17 - default. The dollar exchange rate for the week from August 18 to 22 grows by only 60 kopecks. This is followed by the resignation of the government. On August 25, the ruble immediately falls by 10 percent. Already in September 1998, inflation was 400 percent (in December - 256 percent), the ruble exchange rate had collapsed almost four times by November 1998.

Despite the fact that monthly inflation figures are huge and the Central Bank is conducting an unsecured ruble issue, the refinancing rate remains at 12.5 per annum. This provides the real sector with affordable loans. At the end of 1999, as a result of import substitution, industry grew by 20 percent. World markets are recovering. During 1999, the price of oil doubles and reaches $27 per barrel. The outflow of money from banks stopped in March 1999. From mid-1999 to the end of the third quarter of 2000, banks' capital increased 2.5 times.

1997-2001. Asian crisis

In July 1997, the Asian financial crisis broke out. The reason is the rapid collapse of national currencies and stock indices of the countries of Southeast Asia, provoked by economic overheating, as well as unsustainable government and corporate debts. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were hit hardest by the crisis.

Before the crisis, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore collected more than half of the world's investment. But in the mid-90s in the United States, in order to contain inflation, the monetary authorities increased the refinancing rate. The countries of Southeast Asia, in turn, are also raising their own rates - Asian currencies are strengthening, the competitiveness of products on the world market is falling due to rising costs. At the same time, corporate and government debt in Asian countries continues to rapidly increase.

On May 14, 1997, currency speculators - from George Soros' Quantum Fund to Julian Robertson's Tiger Management Corp - attacked the Thai baht. On July 2, the baht collapsed. During the month, the exchange rates of the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit fell. In Indonesia, the crisis led to mass uprisings and regime change. South Korea was also seriously affected. In early December, the government assured that short-term liabilities of corporations did not exceed $30-40 billion, but by 1998 they exceeded $150 billion.

The International Monetary Fund has allocated more than $110 billion to the countries of Southeast Asia to overcome the consequences of the crisis. Of which, 57 billion were provided to South Korea under strict conditions: to sell the two largest national banks to foreign companies; allow foreign banks to conduct financial transactions in Korea, and most importantly, liquidate companies (chaebols), which accounted for about a third of GDP. By 2001, the national economies of the countries of Southeast Asia had overcome the crisis and resumed growth.

2008 — ?

A new money bubble, artificially created by the authorities, is brewing in the economy, says Mikhail Khazin. If the authorities not only in Russia, but also in other countries do not have time to sense the moment when the money bubble they created will continue to grow without their help, and are late in extracting money from the economy, we will face hyperinflation, chaos in financial markets and most likely a new recession .

Since the beginning of the year, the global economy has seen an ever-widening gap - financial markets are rising, while the real sector of the economy is falling. Common sense says that such a situation cannot last forever: either the top of the scissors will pull the bottom towards itself, or, conversely, financial markets will begin to fall to the level determined by the state of the real sector, and the economy will go into a new round of crisis. To test this hypothesis, all you need to do is stop pouring public money into the economy and see if private demand returns.

As a matter of fact, all statements by representatives of the monetary authorities of the leading economies of the world, the IMF and many other “experts” about overcoming the recession in the near future pursue one single goal - the restoration of private investment demand and lending to the economy. But is it possible to restore investment demand in conditions of obvious excess production capacity? The Chinese authorities, for example, see this as one of the key problems. In fact, it is possible if you close your eyes to the fact that we are talking about the formation of a new financial bubble.

How does the current situation differ from the pre-crisis situation? Because the bubble being inflated today is man-made. Either budget or printed money is used to form it. But the further the bubble grows, the more panic both the financial authorities and market participants fall into. What happens if this man-made bubble behaves as expected? If lending to the real sector secured by financial assets resumes in pre-crisis scales and proportions, this will inevitably cause a sharp surge in inflation, with a high degree of probability capable of developing into hyperinflation.

To avoid inflation, it is necessary to accurately determine the moment when the bubble begins to operate in self-sustaining mode, and then you need to quickly begin to withdraw money from the economy that was previously thrown into it. If you do this a little earlier than it should, the economy will enter a new round of crisis. And it will no longer be possible to get her out of there, since all the resources were spent during the previous cycle. If the monetary authorities are a little late, then inflation, chaos in financial markets and, most likely, a new recession are inevitable.

As for the Russian monetary authorities, they will simply wait to see what the actions of the American Federal Reserve System, the European Central Bank and other global financial institutions will lead to. Wait and hope that the world economy will really revive and the demand for natural resources will pull up Russian exports, and after them the remnants of the real sector oriented towards domestic demand.

In fact, there are several most likely scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. The first, basic one, is based on the assumption that the world economy in 2010 will be able to overcome the crisis, restart lending processes and ensure stable demand for raw materials. And this will largely depend on how Western governments manage to ensure sustainable growth in financial markets (reduce trading volatility). If financial markets normalize, the real sector of the economy will have reliable collateral for lending in the form of shares and bonds, from the point of view of banks. The real sector will begin to grow. Then the forecast of both the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance for the Russian economy and budget for 2010 is justified. The increase in budget revenues in 2010 could be up to 5 percent, and the economy will grow by about 1.5-2 percent.

However, there is another option: the authorities will not be able to normalize the growth of financial markets, then the world economy will continue to decline in 2010. The Russian government will have to make a decision on devaluing the ruble. The critical moment for making such a decision will be November 2009 (until this point, devaluation of every 10 percent will provide one to one and a half additional months of financing the budget deficit from the Reserve Fund). In my opinion, this decision would be correct, since it would allow us to restart growth in the Russian economy, regardless of what is happening in the world. In the event of a late devaluation or its absence in the event of unfavorable developments in the world economy, the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy in the second half of 2010 will inevitably worsen, and significantly. A decline in GDP comparable to that of 2009 is possible. If the devaluation is carried out on time, the injection of money into the Russian economy can and will need to be increased, despite a significant increase in inflation.

It turns out that if foreign states succeed in the feint of restarting the global economy, Russia will again have the opportunity to “sit on the pipe.” But we won’t have any innovative path of development. If Bernanke (head of the Federal Reserve) and Trichet (head of the ECB) fail in their operation, then financial markets will inevitably begin to collapse, and with them oil prices may reach a level of 30-32 dollars per barrel or even lower. In this case, Russia risks ending up in a situation similar to the early 90s of the last century.

But we have a chance to get out of the crisis on our own through a deep devaluation of the ruble. Then we will definitely have to completely reform the economy.

Development forecasts

*Optimistic*	*Pessimistic*
Arkady Dvorkovich, Aide to the President of the Russian Federation	Johannes Berner, Senior Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
In recent months, Russia's GDP has grown for the first time after almost a year of decline, but it is too early to calm down. We understand that the risks are still very high, this growth trend is still unstable. Some stabilization has been achieved, but precisely on the basis of incentive measures. I don’t agree with the necessity of a new wave of crisis. The main recipe for countering the crisis is to shift the emphasis in state support from increasing liquidity and capital to stimulating domestic private demand - both consumer and investment. There are no significant risks for the national currency at oil prices above $50 per barrel. True, a weakening of the ruble, albeit a small one, against the backdrop of increased federal budget spending at the end of 2009 is not excluded. We are not discussing radically new measures and believe that, in general, the structure of our anti-crisis package today is correct. We are currently working intensively on guarantees. We pay special attention to regional employment programs. It is possible that the structure of these programs will gradually change: there will be a little less emphasis on public works, and more emphasis on creating new jobs.	The stimulus package also had some positive effect, but the stabilization is primarily explained by rising prices on commodity exchanges. A new round of crisis is possible. But another scenario is more likely - a protracted period of recovery, several years long. Development is hampered by “bad debt,” which limits the ability of banks to issue new loans. Macroeconomic indicators favor a stable ruble, but it is unknown whether the government will abandon devaluation to increase the competitiveness of Russian products. The volume of anti-crisis program funds is not as important as how they are spent. Huge sums have been spent on saving jobs in uncompetitive enterprises and on various employment programs, many of which are temporary. All this does not contribute to improving the economic situation.
Elvira Nabiullina, Head of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia	Igor Nikolaev, partner, director of the strategic analysis department at FBK
Anti-crisis measures that are being taken to support investment and social support, according to MEDT calculations, can create up to half a million new jobs. People who are being released from not very efficient enterprises will be able to attend them. The official GDP forecast worsened - minus 2.2 percent, for industry - minus 7.4 percent. The rate of decline in industrial production in 2009 will largely depend on how the government's anti-crisis package will work and when it will begin to work and on how banks will lend to the economy. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade expects a decrease in the volume of investments in the Russian Federation in 2009 by 14 percent. Real incomes of Russians in January 2009 compared to January 2008 decreased by 6.7 percent. The situation is no better with real wages, which decreased by 3.2 percent. At the end of the year, Russians’ incomes will decrease by 8.3 percent compared to the beginning of the year.	The total assessment of the state's anti-crisis financial obligations gives a huge figure of 10.2 trillion rubles. (23.7% of 2008 GDP). About 92 percent of the allocated funds are channeled through the banking sector. Moreover, the more money was pumped into the banking system, the worse bank liquidity indicators became. This casts doubt on the correctness of the strategy to confront the crisis. Industrial production in 2009 could fall by 20 percent. To understand the scale of the problem, it is enough to remember that in recent decades, comparable threats occurred only in 1992, during the transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Then the industry fell by 18 percent. Our expectations are not so rosy: in 2009, the decline in investment in fixed assets will be at least 15 percent. There will be no growth in real cash incomes of the population. At the end of last year, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development was counting on a 2.5 percent increase in this indicator. We estimate there will be a 15 percent decline by the end of 2009. The current and forecast state of the Russian economy is such that it is difficult to count on the emergence of incentives for growth.

Crises in the economy are not considered something out of the ordinary; they are one of the phases of the economic cycle. Crises are characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand for goods and services. At this time, the state of the state’s economy sharply deteriorates, production declines, many enterprises declare themselves bankrupt, and unemployment rises. All this ultimately negatively affects the standard of living of the population. Crisis phenomena begin with a decline in the economy (recession), which is usually followed by a new rise.

Before the twentieth century, crises were usually local in nature and affected a specific country. With the development of a market economy, everything changed. In just over 100 years, humanity has experienced several such events that it has never known before in its entire history.

Economic crisis of 1900-1903

The first crisis in the 20th century, which affected many Western countries and Russia, was caused by a sharp economic rise and overproduction of raw materials. Industrial production could not keep up with it, as a result of which prices for raw materials fell, and small and medium-sized companies began to go bankrupt one by one. Unemployment grew and many workers found themselves on the streets. Only monopolies, large enterprises and cartels managed to survive. This crisis led to the concentration and monopolization of production in developed countries.

Russia was affected by this crisis even earlier. In 1899, many metallurgical and machine-building enterprises went bankrupt. Not only small and medium-sized, but also large companies were closed. Railway construction and oil production decreased. The crisis caused a decline in the rate of industrial production and became protracted. The economy managed to get out of the depression only ten years later, after the Russo-Japanese War and the 1905 revolution.

Banking Panic of 1907

In 1907, the Central Bank of England sharply increased the discount rate to replenish gold and foreign exchange reserves, which began an influx of capital into England and its outflow from the United States. Due to the mass flight of depositors from banks and trust companies in the United States, the New York Stock Exchange index collapsed. Citizens in panic began to withdraw money from banks, many banks and enterprises declared bankruptcy. The efforts of financiers who pledged their own funds to strengthen the banking system helped prevent panic in the United States. This crisis caused an economic recession and affected the economies of countries such as Italy and France.

World War I

Before the start of World War I, the USA, Great Britain, France, and Germany needed funds to conduct military operations, as a result of which they began to sell off securities of foreign issuers. Such a total sell-off caused a collapse in the commodity and stock markets of many warring countries, and financiers began to panic. The crisis was overcome thanks to the intervention of the countries' central banks.

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The global crisis, which began in 1929 and lasted until World War II, went down in history as the “Great Depression.” This protracted crisis, which affected the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France and many other countries, is remembered as the most terrible and destructive in history.

The Great Depression began with a collapse in stock prices on October 24, 1929. This date went down in history as “Black Thursday”. The cause of the crisis was the discrepancy between the quantity of goods produced and the purchasing power of the population; a crisis of overproduction arose. In addition, in the 1920s, during the boom in the US economy, everyone was playing on the stock exchange, and many speculators appeared who inflated stock prices.

In the first four years of the crisis, industrial production in the United States fell by 46%. The automotive industry, oil and coal production, and metallurgy suffered the most. Hundreds of thousands of enterprises, firms and banks went bankrupt and closed. A third of America's working population found itself on the street, while at the same time wages fell by half. Hungry people left without work took to the streets to rally. In 1932, in Detroit, participants in one of these hunger marches were shot by Henry Ford's security service.

The situation in the United States has greatly affected the economies of other developed countries of the world. The level of industrial production fell in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, and in France by 32%.

The measures taken by President Franklin Roosevelt, called the New Deal, gradually brought the United States out of the depression. At this time, the state took active intervention in the economy: it began to issue loans to large banks, abolished the gold standard, and restructured farm debt. Many social initiatives were also undertaken, for example, the unemployed were involved in public works. Today, economists believe that not all of Roosevelt’s measures helped overcome the crisis; some of them only delayed this process. The consequences of the Great Depression were finally overcome only by 1945.

Oil crisis of 1973

The world's first energy crisis coincided with the beginning of one of the Arab-Israeli wars. In 1973, OPEC member countries announced that they would reduce oil production and would not supply oil to the United States and other countries that supported Israel in the war. OPEC's actions led to the fact that the price of oil quadrupled, which, of course, benefited oil exporting countries and hit hard the countries that depended on its supplies.

The United States, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan suffered from the energy crisis. Real production declined, inflation rose, power outages began in residential buildings and institutions, mass layoffs and strikes followed, and gasoline prices soared. 15 million people were left without work. To cope with the crisis, the governments of the affected countries introduced a strict energy saving regime, began to use coal and natural gas, and also developed nuclear energy. This crisis seriously affected the USSR, since it was from that time that the USSR became one of the main exporters of oil.

Asian financial crisis

In the last few decades of the 20th century, the economies of South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan rapidly developed and grew, as a result of which these states, the so-called “Asian Tigers”, became the leading countries of Asia in a very short time. However, rapid development and the influx of foreign capital led to the overheating of the economy, and in 1997-1998 an economic crisis erupted in Southeast and East Asia.

During the crisis, inflation rose sharply, the national currencies of many countries in the region depreciated by 100-200%, stock markets collapsed, and investors began to quickly withdraw capital from Asia. The crisis affected Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea, while Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan were less affected.

The International Monetary Fund helped the countries of Southeast Asia overcome the consequences of the crisis. An echo of events in this region was the 1998 economic crisis in Russia.

World financial crisis

The last global crisis that swept the entire globe began in 2008. It was caused by the mortgage crisis in the United States, when cases of default on high-risk mortgage loans became more frequent. Such loans were given to those who had low incomes and a bad credit history. The consequence of the mortgage crisis was that many banks were declared bankrupt. In particular, in 2008, a large investment bank, Lehman Brothers, went bankrupt. That same year, the stock markets crashed.

The crisis quickly engulfed not only the United States, but the entire world. The world's economies have entered a recession. Raw materials became cheaper and industrial production began to decline. Central banks of many countries around the world, except Japan and Russia, decided to lower interest rates, and governments began to take measures to save the banking system. The IMF also began to issue loans to affected countries.

At the same time, enterprises and factories began to close in many countries, mass layoffs followed, which caused the unemployment rate to increase; a number of financiers and businessmen even committed suicide. The global economic crisis also affected Russia, which forced the government to take large-scale anti-crisis measures. In 2010, the World Bank acknowledged in its report that our country managed to overcome the first years of the crisis with fewer losses. The US and Europe suffered much more. In recent years, economists and politicians have increasingly begun to talk about the impending second wave of the crisis.

History knows a lot of global crises: comprehensive or affecting a narrow circle of countries, protracted and shorter - their causes, as a rule, are always different, and the consequences are extremely similar. Crisis phenomena leave their mark not only on the economies of countries, but also on human destinies, turning many people (sometimes even the wealthiest) into beggars literally in a day.

The twentieth century was rich in world economic crises. The First and Second World Wars played a significant role in this, during which the financial markets of countries turned into “ruins”, like cities after bombings...

Financial crisis of 1907

The series of crises of the twentieth century opens with the crisis of 1907, which affected 9 countries. The reasons for this are purely economic, expressed in the Bank of England increasing the discount rate to 6% from the original 3.5%. The purpose of such actions by Great Britain was the desire to replenish its gold reserves. The influx of capital into the country turned out to be simply incredible, with the United States becoming its main source. Accordingly, in the United States itself, this led to negative consequences: a stock market crash, a decline in business activity, a liquidity crisis and a protracted economic recession. These events immediately affected Italy, France and some other countries.

World crisis of 1914

The First World War also ended with the crisis of 1920-1922, caused by post-war deflation against the background, as well as currency and banking crises in a number of countries.

1929-1933 – Great Depression

There are many “dark” days in the history of crises, and most of them are associated with the United States. It was with “Black Thursday” on October 24, 1929 that the next world crisis began, which turned into a great depression that affected the whole world. It all started with a sharp drop in the Dow Jones index and stock prices on the New York stock market. After the end of World War I, the US economy experienced an unprecedented rise, and the securities market became an attractive platform for investment by other countries, which caused an outflow of capital from Latin America and Europe. The collapse of the stock market amid tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve led to multiple stock crises around the world. This was immediately followed by a decline in production in all countries affected by the crisis, by an average of half, and, as a consequence, huge unemployment. Under the dominance of the “gold standard” system, the authorities of many states were unable to make the necessary cash injections into the economy, which only aggravated the situation. The crisis dominated the world until 1933, and its echoes were felt until the 40s of the last century.

Crisis of 1957

Oil crisis of 1973-1974

1987

Once again, the United States experiences a black day - “Black Monday” on October 19, 1987, when another collapse of the country’s stock market occurs due to a sharp drop in the Dow Jones Industrial index by 22.6%. Following the United States, the stock markets of Canada, Australia, South Korea, and Hong Kong also collapsed.

This was followed by a series of more localized crises: in 1994-1995 - Mexican crisis , in 1997 – Asian crisis and in 1998 – Russian crisis .

The 1998 crisis turned out to be one of the most difficult in history for Russia. Devaluation, default... lay in the huge amount of public debt, the low level of prices for raw materials in the world, as well as the large debt of the state to repay state bonds, the deadlines for which had already passed.

This is the history of the world crises of the twentieth century. Its successor, the 21st century, has already begun its record of “dark days”...

Before the development of the global market economy, crises were predominantly local in nature, remaining a problem for an individual state. In the 20th century, with the growth of economic integration processes, crises began to acquire a global scale: the established close ties between different countries resulted in the dependence of their economies.

The first world crisis of the 21st century began on September 15, 2008, when the largest financial conglomerate, the American investment bank Lehman Brothers, declared bankruptcy. However, over the past 100 years, the world has seen many economic shocks that humanity has had to endure.

First World Crisis 1900–1903

The first erupted at the beginning of the last century and lasted from 1900 to 1903. This was the so-called crisis of overproduction, caused by a sharp economic recovery in capitalist countries. As a result, prices for energy resources began to fall, many entrepreneurs went bankrupt, and unemployment grew at a tremendous rate in Europe and America. Only large monopolies and cartels were able to survive, therefore, after the crisis, the processes of monopolization of production intensified in developed countries.

In Russia, crisis phenomena began even earlier: 1899 was marked by the bankruptcies of large industrial enterprises, metallurgical and engineering companies collapsed, the pace of railway construction slowed down, and the extraction of raw materials sharply decreased. In just a few years, the Russian economy reached its bottom; it was possible to get out of the crisis only in 1905 after the revolutionary events and the end of the Russo-Japanese War.

Banking Panic of 1907

In 1907, the British Central Bank unexpectedly raised the discount rate. Great Britain needed fresh cash flows to increase its gold and foreign exchange reserves. The tempting offer worked and caused an influx of external capital: many investors left US banks and invested their funds in the British economy.

As a result, the New York stock exchange collapsed, the country's population succumbed to panic and rushed to withdraw their savings from US banks. Some financial institutions were forced to declare bankruptcy. Similar phenomena were also observed in France and Italy, but to a much lesser extent than in the United States.

Great Depression 1929–1941

The events of the Great Depression in the United States provoked stock speculation and growing consumption by the population. Only in a short period of time from 1928 to 1929. the price of securities increased by 40%, trading volumes increased 2.5 times - from 2 million to 5 million shares per day. No one was embarrassed by such a sharp rate of growth in quotations; everyone counted on gigantic profits in the future.

The resulting bubble burst on October 24, 1929, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 381.17. The unexpected decline caused panic in the market; shareholders began to get rid of previously purchased securities. In just one day, 12.9 million shares were sold, the stock index fell by another 11%. This day went down in world history as “Black Thursday”.

Black Thursday was followed by Black Friday, followed by Black Monday and Black Tuesday. During this short period of time, about 30 million securities were sold. Thousands of investors went bankrupt, with losses estimated at more than $30 billion.

The ruin of shareholders led to the closure of banks that provided loans for the purchase of securities. Financial institutions were forced to admit their insolvency and declared themselves bankrupt. Enterprises deprived of the opportunity to obtain a loan were unable to continue to function normally and were also forced to close. Unemployment was growing at a catastrophic rate in the country.

The US economic growth rate fell by 31% during the first few years of the Great Depression. Industry and agriculture suffered greatly: prices for farm products fell by 53%, and the decline in production was almost 50%.

The American economy began to recover from the shocks only after President Franklin Roosevelt came to power in the spring of 1933. His “strong hand” policy brought tangible results, depression gave way to recovery. The United States managed to finally overcome the crisis only after World War II.

The countries of Western Europe also suffered from the crisis in America, the UK and Germany being the worst hit. A few years before the crash in New York, Great Britain returned the English pound to its pre-war denomination. As a result, the national currency became overvalued, its own exports became more expensive and lost competitiveness.

To maintain its currency, Great Britain was forced to take out a loan from the United States. After the events of “Black Thursday,” the crisis that broke out moved overseas: first it covered Great Britain, and from there it spread to other European countries that had barely recovered from the difficult events of the First World War.

Oil crisis of 1973

The 1973 crisis arose against the backdrop of the events of another Arab-Israeli war. Member states of OPEC (the organization of oil exporters) announced their decision to reduce oil production and stop exports to those countries that supported Israel in this military conflict.

As a result, oil prices quadrupled within one year. The described events played a positive role for oil exporters and had a negative impact on buyers. The Soviet Union eventually took a leading position among sellers of energy resources and significantly strengthened its international authority.

Rising energy prices caused a crisis in large developed countries - France, Italy, the USA, Germany and Japan. Problems arose with the energy supply to residential buildings and institutions, gasoline prices jumped, production fell, and inflation rose. The fall in production caused an increase in unemployment - almost 15 million people were laid off.

To overcome the crisis, the governments of these countries introduced an austerity regime, developed effective energy saving methods, began to use natural gas and coal, and began to develop their own nuclear energy.

Asian crisis 1997–1998

In the mid-90s, a new large-scale economic crisis emerged that engulfed the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APAC). Until this time, the economies of the countries called the Asian Tigers were growing rapidly at a high rate. Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have become leading countries in their region in a short time. Rapid development and powerful injections of foreign capital led to overheating of economies, resulting in a crisis.

Following the collapse, there was a rapid outflow of foreign investment from the economies of these states, national currencies depreciated by 2-4 times, and inflation increased. Singapore, Japan and Taiwan suffered the least from the crisis; the economies of Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia felt the impact more strongly. In 1998, the economic crisis began in Russia.

Borrowings from the International Monetary Fund helped the countries of Southeast Asia overcome the crisis.

Global financial crisis 2008–2009

The strongest shock of our time was the events of 2008, when the global financial crisis broke out, caused by overheating of the asset market. In Russia, the cause of the crisis in the economy was the overheating of the “black gold” market: for several months, oil prices grew in giant leaps; as soon as the price rose above $72 per barrel, it became obvious to experts that a crisis was inevitable.

Crisis phenomena were observed for a year and a half, and gradually the economies of individual states began to recover. Although, according to some estimates of authoritative experts, the last crisis is not over, and the negative phenomena that are observed in the global economy now are a continuation of the 2008 crisis - its second wave.

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Oil crisis of 1973

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Financial crisis of 1907

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1929-1933 – Great Depression

Crisis of 1957

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First World Crisis 1900–1903

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Great Depression 1929–1941

Oil crisis of 1973

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Global financial crisis 2008–2009