Oleg Grigoriev era of growth epub. Review: Oh

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Why are some countries rich and others poor despite their best efforts? What factors determine economic growth? Answering these questions, the author comes to an unexpected conclusion: at the heart of the wave economic growth over the last two-plus centuries lies a unique set of circumstances in the world economic system XVIII century. However, the initial growth momentum has long been exhausted.
Are we able to take control of economic development, or will we have to put up with a slow decline that threatens to turn into a catastrophe at any moment? There is no answer to this question today, however, the understanding of real mechanisms presented in the book economic development can serve as a basis for developing the necessary solutions.
Oleg Grigoriev relies on the original concept of the decisive role of the division of labor.
The book will be of interest to specialists, as well as to a wide range of readers interested in economics.
Oleg Grigoriev graduated from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, was a researcher at CEMI of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Worked in the Supreme Council, State Duma, in the Economic Department of the President of the Russian Federation. State Councilor First Class. Since 2012 - founder and scientific director of Oleg Grigoriev's Research Center "Neoconomics".

Our scheme of monocultural interaction between the two countries is similar to the theory of comparative
advantages of D. Ricardo, but in reality there are fundamental differences between them.
If we compare our model and the well-known model of D. Ricardo from a purely mathematical (rather arithmetic) point of view, then we get the impression that we are talking about the same model. However, both ours and Ricardo's models are economic, but from an economic point of view, the differences are very significant.
From an economic point of view, it is not the numbers that are important, but the exact description of the situation to which they refer. We and Ricardo are considering different situations - respectively, and the course of reasoning, and the conclusions we have are different.
The most important difference is the following. We consider the interaction of two countries under the assumption that they differ in the level of technological division of labor. As for Ricardo, his reasoning is based on the natural division of labor based on natural or acquired advantages. At the same time, some of Ricardo's remarks give grounds to assume that he knows about the technological division of labor, however, even in these cases, doubts remain: is it really a technological division of labor, or a natural one based on acquired advantages.

CONTENT
Words of gratitude
LECTURE 1 On the division of labor
LECTURE 2: Interaction between developed and developing states. Monocultural interaction
LECTURE 3: Interaction between developed and developing states. Investment interaction
LECTURE 4: Reproductive Circuit
LECTURE 5: Interaction of reproductive circuits: money
LECTURE 6: Interaction of reproductive circuits: rent
LECTURE 7: Technological division of labor. Firm
LECTURE 8: Scientific and technological progress
LECTURE 9: Formation of the modern economic system
LECTURE 10: Economic crises
Conclusion Literature

Social studies, module 3, economics, Zorabyan S.E., Gromakova V.G., Savchenkova I.N., 2019
History of Bolivia from ancient times to the beginning of the XXI century, Larin E.A., Shchelchkov A.A., 2015

The following tutorials and books.

Why are some countries rich and others poor despite their best efforts? What factors determine economic growth?

The economic growth of the past 250 years has exhausted its momentum. What's next for us?

Oleg Grigoriev understands the reasons that led then, a long time ago, to a surge, caused the growth of factories and plants, productivity and efficiency, the flow of money and general well-being. But can the same reasons keep the economy growing in the coming years?

From the site editor

Neoconomics is the best inoculation against conspiracy theories that have become especially popular in recent times. Not "Rothschilds and Rockefellers" determine the course of world processes, but quite objective patterns. which Grigoriev reveals and carefully considers in his book.

Without much exaggeration, we can say that the "Era of Growth" is the "Capital" of our time (so far only the first volume ...)

About what is Neoconomics and why this book should be read - you can read

Only on our website you can legally purchase this book in electronic form. And thus express in a material form gratitude to the staff of the Neconomics Research Center.

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Price - 299 rubles

After the purchase, you need to return back to the same page, where download links will be available to you.

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Why are some countries rich and others poor despite their best efforts? What factors determine economic growth?

The economic growth of the past 250 years has exhausted its momentum. What's next for us?

From the site editor

Without much exaggeration, we can say that the "Era of Growth" is the "Capital" of our time (so far only the first volume ...)

About what is Neoconomics and why this book should be read - you can read

Only on our website you can legally purchase this book in electronic form. And thus express in material form gratitude to Oleg Vadimovich and the staff of the Nekonomics Research Center.

PDF, FB2 and EPUB formats are available.

Price - 299 rubles

After the purchase, you need to return back to the same page, where download links will be available to you.

Moreover, when downloading files in encrypted form, information about who exactly the copy was sent to is included. So distributing files on the network is also not recommended ...

The book will be of interest to specialists, as well as to a wide range of readers interested in economics. Oleg Grigoriev graduated from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, was a researcher at CEMI of the USSR Academy of Sciences. He worked in the Supreme Council, the State Duma, in the Economic Department of the President of the Russian Federation. State Councilor First Class.
Over the past 10 years, I have repeatedly undertaken to write a book that would embody the results of my reasoning about the fundamental role of the division of labor in the economy, but each time I encountered insurmountable obstacles. Each advance in analysis required a revision, sometimes radical, of what had been previously written. Something needed to be clarified, something needed to be reworked. And with each new step, the procedure had to be repeated. From a certain point, I realized that the only way to work on the exposition of a new theory is to consistently read courses of lectures on a wide range of economic problems.

With this iterative approach, it became possible to consistently refine the content of the new economic theory, its system of concepts and internal relationships. Based on the results of the lecture courses, it became possible to look at all the accumulated material in its entirety, critically assess its state, separate the important from the secondary, highlight areas that require further study and outline ways for further research.
The first large course of lectures was organized by order of the EFKO Group of Companies for its corporate university. This still very "raw" course of lectures allowed me to fully appreciate the significance of the new approach to economic theory, its fundamental difference from traditional approaches, and also to determine the main directions of development of the theory.
Further elaboration of the theory was carried out within the framework of more limited courses of lectures, as well as the work of a theoretical seminar organized by me. In 2012, on the initiative of P. Shchedrovitsky, another large course of lectures was organized at the Moscow Higher School of Social and economic sciences(Shaninka). During this course, it was possible to develop a holistic concept of a new approach to economic theory, to create, if I may say so, its skeleton.

The next large course of lectures was delivered within the framework of the Research Center "Neoconomics". In its course and in the course of numerous seminars, some important topics that previously remained outside the scope of the study were worked out, and a system of internal interconnections of the theory was formed. This book is based on the materials of the second and third courses of lectures. The main material is based on the course of lectures given in Shaninka, but it is substantially supplemented and refined in accordance with later studies, which are reflected in the next course. This circumstance explains some of the stylistic heterogeneity of the book, but it had to be sacrificed for the sake of the content unity of the material.

Since the emergence of Homo sapiens on this sinful planet, this man has lived in the same economic reality. And this reality was called - The increase in the division of labor. Which led to the emergence of more and more new professions. A constant and continuous increase in the division of labor, the emergence of new professions, has accompanied man throughout his history. It seemed like it would be like this forever. At least until all of humanity is involved in the global division of labor. But then a semiconductor transistor appeared and this (fortunately) came to an end.

The error lies in the fact that according to Oleg Grigoriev's Neoconomics, this process of deepening the division of labor has reached its limit. Covered all of humanity and there is nowhere to expand further. There are no more people on the planet who are not involved in the global division of labor. However, it is not. Moreover, since about 1990, the reverse process began. Since the end of the last century, humanity has entered a new economic reality. And this new reality is called - Reducing the division of labor.

We are talking exclusively about the labor involved in material production. Everything that can be weighed can be attributed to material production. In the literal sense of the word. The product of material labor has a weight that can be measured in kilograms. Everything that cannot be weighed belongs to the Service Sphere. The work of a hairdresser, designer, actor, psychologist, doctor, teacher, etc. It's impossible to weigh. And all this work belongs to the Service Sphere. Material production includes agriculture, the extraction of raw materials and industrial production, everything that can be weighed, everything that has Weight. This is the most important point needed to separate the Service Sphere and Material Production. It will go further, only and exclusively about material production.

Although it is here that an interesting dispute arises as to which type of production to include software, which is becoming more and more significant in the total volume of Gross Domestic Product. The work of a programmer is Material Production or Services. The dispute inevitably comes down to the level of Quantum Mechanics and The Theory of Relativity. The software at the time of its transfer from one place to another, still has this weight. But it is at the moment of transmission, not storage. Photons and electrons involved in the transmission of software have this weight. In any case, the same Photons have energy and this energy can be converted into kilograms, not to mention electrons. But at the moment of its storage, this software has no weight. A hard disk or a laser disk has the same weight, regardless of whether the program is written on it or not. A person who buys such a software disc in a store is actually buying only the weight of the media itself. The purchased program in its place of storage after downloading from the network also has no weight. The program itself, placed on the carrier, cannot be weighed in kilograms. And if at the moment of buying a product or storing a product, this product (program) has no weight, then it belongs to the Service Sphere. In general, all the work of a programmer can be fully attributed to the economy of the Service Industry.

The increase in the division of labor in material production has gone through three stages. The first stage is the level. Division of labor based on natural advantages. We grow grapes and olives, you have sheep and goats. Let's exchange wine and olives for wool, butter and cheese. The second level of the division of labor is based on industrial and raw materials exchange. We give you industrial products (iPhones and gadgets), you give us raw materials and food (oil, gas, hemp and grain). The third level is based on Outsourcing. We assemble and develop the final product, the product itself, you supply us with components and parts for it.

According to the logic of development of the Increase in the division of labor, the entire post-Soviet space should be included in the global division of labor for more high level the third stage or the third phase of its development, at the level of Outsourcing. For example, China and the countries of Latin America are included. However, the entire post-Soviet space is stuck at the second level of development. Raw materials and food in exchange for manufactured goods. And it's not just about bad colonial administration, bad Putin or Yanukovych. With a good Poroshenko, the second level of the division of labor is even more fixed. It's all about the global process that began around 1990 of the last century. Mankind has entered a new economic reality - Reducing the level of division of labor. To understand why the reverse process began and what the transistor has to do with it, you need to start from afar and trace all the stages of development of the Increase in the division of labor.

At the very beginning of history, there was only one natural economy. Then began a gradual process of exchange - trade, based on natural advantages. At this stage, settled settlements began to appear. Then the second stage of development began, raw materials and food in exchange for industrial (handicraft) products. At this stage, cities and towns of artisans began to appear. The third stage, Outsourcing, the removal of the production of parts and components to places with a lower income level. At this stage, Trans national or Trans urban companies began to appear. Settlements and cities at the top of technological chains began to stand out.

First there was a stick. And besides the stick, man produced nothing. Then, there was an increase in the variety of sticks - products. A stick for knocking fruit on a tree, a stick for dripping roots, a stick - a baton for hitting the head. The process of increasing the number of products produced by man began. Man gradually learned to produce clothes, shoes, dishes from ceramics. Build housing - a hut. The variety of products produced by man has constantly increased. As the variety of products increased, an equally interesting process began in their production. In some products, an increase in the number of parts of which these products consisted began. And this is the second important point in production.

An increase in the variety of products leads to the emergence of new professions and, as a result; Increases the level of division of labor. An increase in the number of parts in one product leads to the emergence of new professions that produce different parts for the product and, as a result; Increases the level of division of labor. The sailing ships in 1492, on which Columbus and company crossed the Ocean, contained no less than a thousand individual parts, knocked together and assembled into one product called Caracca. Three carracks, Pinta, Nina and Santa Maria as a result of this action, went down in history as the ships of Columbus. Subsequently, every hundred years there was a doubling of the number of parts in one product, referred to as a sailing ship. The galleons of the early 17th century contained two to two and a half thousand parts. Three-masted galleons of the 18th century, with several rows of sails on one mast, could contain up to four to five thousand parts.

It is difficult to model when the increase in the number of parts in ships began, but you can definitely tell how it all began. And it all started with two things. A dugout boat, one detail and an oar from a single piece of wood, the second detail. It is easy to see that with an increase in the number of parts in ships, it became possible to move the production of individual parts to places where income - wages were lower. Not so much the urgent need to move part of the production to another city, but the opportunity to reduce the cost and increase production - the assembly of ships. Including an increasing number of people in the division of labor in the production of one final product. A city or a village with a shipyard, with such a division of labor, was at the top of the technological chain, controlling the development and final assembly of the product, getting the maximum profit, and the owners of the shipyard turned out to be at the head of the Trans city company with suppliers of manufacturers in other cities - settlements.

The first Ford cars contained 1.5 thousand parts. Now, the simplest car of the same company contains about 20-30 thousand parts and hundreds of suppliers of these parts, often in other countries. Boeing 747 contains over half a million parts. Boeing 787 contains about a million parts and thousands of suppliers around the world. It seems that the number of various products and the number of parts in the product is steadily growing, and with it the increase in the division of labor with the transition to the third level, Outsourcing. However, it is not.

The increase in the number of products and parts in them is gradually growing, but already much more slowly than before and, most likely, will reach its limit very soon, after which the reverse process will begin. But the number of parts in electronics products has already begun to decline. Early VCRs contained more detail than DVD players. The laser disc itself is one detail. The cassette for the tape recorder contained up to forty details. Now the players themselves are disappearing. Even in televisions, the number of parts is decreasing and every TV in the near future will be both a computer and a game console, consisting of two parts. A wire with a plug and a single-crystal computer on transistors. These same transistors, before the eyes of one generation, practically destroyed the entire film industry. Film and photo film, magnetic tape for tape recorders and all equipment using them. It is hard to imagine how many people were involved in these productions and what was the scale of Outsourcing, the removal of the production of parts and components by transnational companies. And the first computers occupying entire floors of buildings on vacuum tubes and punched cards. And the vacuum tubes themselves. But that's not all.

Computers themselves, with software, fired entire factory institutes involved in drawing drawings by hand on paper. A computer connected to the machine and becoming a numerically controlled machine, which dramatically increased labor productivity, sent an entire army of machine operators into oblivion. Peter Martin and Harald Schumann wrote a book - The Trap of Globalization. Where they described the threat to the world order, from the transition to society 20 = 80%. Where only twenty percent of the population will be employed in material production. And in agriculture, and in the extraction of raw materials and industrial production, due to the increase in labor productivity associated with the massive introduction of computers in all areas of production. Already now in such countries as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, which have yet to develop and develop to the level developed countries, have a percentage close to 20-80%. Already now in these countries 60% of the population is employed in the service sector, not to mention the developed countries, and this percentage is steadily growing. It is the reduction of the population employed in material production that is the result of the process that has begun - the reduction of the division of labor.

With this trend, the number of countries where the high-tech industry will be preserved will also decrease. The world of Elysium and the rest of the Cyberpunk world, where there will be endless Hunger Games that have already begun in the Middle East and the former Ukraine, this is the bright future of mankind. This is due to the fact that as labor productivity grows and the number of people employed in industrial production decreases, there is a great desire to transfer this production to one's home, in developed world, leaving the neighbors only the extraction of raw materials, and agriculture. This process began at the end of the last century and will inevitably reach its logical end. The upheavals and social cataclysms that will accompany all this action will by no means be inferior to the upheavals that humanity experienced during the change of previous economic formations.

Previous wars were caused by the desire of individual countries to climb to the top of the technological chains. Today's wars will be caused by the desire to stay on these heights. The dispute between the US and Europe over who will remain has already begun.

And before that, Central Europe, without any war, destroyed the technological industry of its eastern competitors - neighbors. After 1990, the high-tech industry disappeared in the countries of the former socialist bloc, Poland, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, the USSR. It is believed that jobs from here moved to China. But this is not true, by and large they have not moved anywhere. It's just that in central Europe labor productivity has increased and enterprises in the east working for European outsourcing, supplying parts and components to final assembly sites, have become unnecessary, just as direct competitors are not needed. The total number of people who lost their jobs in the technology industry of these countries far exceeds the number of people employed in China's export areas. In China itself, for the rest of the world, only 20-40 million people work.

This is in pseudo-liberal myths, the whole of China is working for the rest of the world for a cup of rice. Half of China's population is employed in agriculture and does not export rice and wheat. The service sector employs 30% of the population. The remaining thirty percent or two hundred million people are employed in the production itself. Of these, only ten, twenty percent, work in export areas of production. The adult uncles who run the Western world themselves did not understand what they had done with China, pumping it with technology in pursuit of cheapness. In order to have forty million Chinese working for them for low wages, they essentially raised a technological monster and a competitor to their Western head, for a place in Elysium. To destroy the industry in the post-Soviet space, preventing it from becoming an analogue of Latin America technologically dependent on developed countries, for the sake of exploiting forty million Chinese, and in fact for the sake of the Chinese, this must be done.