Given recent events, a monetary reform in Russia in 2019 is quite likely, since only radical economic and political steps will help curb the growth of protest moods in society. The situation today is so catastrophic that all means are good to strengthen the ruble, including the denomination. Crossing out today two zeros from a 1000-ruble bill, you can to a large extent increase its authority by international market. Although, of course, the main thing is to increase its authority among the population itself, which is increasingly feeling the chill from impending events.

Denomination, of course, plays more of a psychological role. However, it also has real advantages. For example, the population actively transfers savings to banks in order to avoid an unpleasant exchange procedure. Deposits during the period of monetary reform in Russia will increase significantly, which, in fact, is what is needed at the present stage, when the main business has simply stopped. In addition, part of the old savings in physical terms, which our citizens traditionally keep in a mattress, will inevitably burn out during the denomination, especially if the terms of such an exchange are limited. Accordingly, the value of money increases.

Will there be a monetary reform in Russia in 2019?

On the other hand, the 2019 currency reform in Russia through denomination may be just part of the PR program so beloved by our president. Everyone understands that by crossing out a few zeros on a bill, it is impossible to raise production and profitable sectors of the economy. After all, modern money expresses the economic power of the state. While 1 dollar costs more than 60 rubles, our country is 60 times weaker than the US economy. And if you artificially change the denomination of the national currency, the economy will not become stronger. Moreover, after some time, the currency will again slide back to its previous level.

Will there be a monetary reform in Russia in 2019? So far, there are no prerequisites for its implementation. But immediately before, the government can still take this step. The late Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin did the same before the 1998 default. And then, it must be admitted, the reform really played a certain role, since the economy at that time was also already breathing its last. How, in fact, breathes now.

In order to survive the monetary reform, if they suddenly start talking about it, it is best to invest in some very liquid object. Which will always be in demand, regardless of crisis situations.

• Monday, 10 September 2018 20:42

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Panic rumors about the impending confiscation currency reform in Russia, circulating throughout the last week after the statement by Goznak CEO Arkady Trachuk that it was time to change the “outdated design of banknotes”, made in an interview with RIA Novosti, were fueled today by the publication of Finanz, adding some details to a still unclear picture. According to the publication, in the course of the reform, the introduction of updated banknotes in denominations of 200 and 2 thousand rubles is expected. According to the publication's experts, this, at first glance, a cosmetic reform, can serve as the start of a large-scale campaign to replace cash in circulation. It is possible that in this way the authorities intend to strike at the shadow turnover of rubles: savings that have not been legalized through the banking system.

The fact that in Russia it is possible to replace money, representatives of the Central Bank spoke in the summer of 2017. Then the head of the cash department monetary circulation A. Yurov stated that ruble bills would soon undergo a "deep modernization". The monetary reform, according to officials, will depreciate the capital accumulated in the form of cash in the shadow economy, the fight against which was announced by the government as one of the main goals. economic policy states.

Meanwhile, ordinary people who remember recent history and independent experts fear that the replacement of banknotes may become a repetition of the infamous Pavlovian reform of 1991, when only three days were allocated for the exchange of banknotes, and one person could exchange no more than a limited amount of money (1000 rubles).

Well-known economist Dmitry Potapenko expressed his commentary on the possible reform and his opinion about what consequences it could entail for ordinary Russians.

- Dmitry, it became known that in Russia they are preparing a monetary reform - the introduction into circulation of new banknotes in denominations of 200 and 2 thousand rubles. By modernizing banknotes, the authorities allegedly intend to bring cash out of the shadows. What do you think is the real purpose of the reform?

- As for the withdrawal of cash from the shadows ... It's something akin to "In the city of elderberry, and in Kyiv uncle." If the authorities wanted to reduce some burden, they would have acted differently. With the introduction of new banknotes, they simply print more money. The replacement of banknotes has been discussed for a long time, even at the time of designing these banknotes, but the thing is that we have nothing to bring out of the shadows.

– Can we talk about repeating the so-called Pavlovian reform of 1991?

- It doesn't make any sense now. There are fewer and fewer people with alternative income every day. More and more people are working for what we mistakenly call the state, but in reality - for "sawing" the budget (directly or indirectly). Accordingly, if a person works to “sawing the budget”, he receives money on the so-called “Mir” card, that is, he receives it in cashless form. Therefore, why should the authorities complicate things if you can simply “cut zeros” from your card account.

– Should ordinary Russians be afraid of this reform?

“Look: before there was more cash, now there is less cash, so everything can be done more elegantly, you can take money away from you, because it doesn’t belong to you anyway.

The Russians should definitely not be afraid of this. They should be afraid that their money is depreciating, and depreciating for a very long time; to be afraid of a pseudo-pension reform, an increase in VAT and excises on fuel, an artificial devaluation of the ruble under the guise of an increase in the dollar and euro - this is what you should be afraid of.

– How far do you think the ruble will fall in relation to the dollar and the euro?

- The financial abyss is good because it cannot end. The bottom does not exist here. Therefore, the Russians are waiting for "tighter belts", because the main thing is what? The main thing is that "Trump is ours" and "What's with the crests." And the fact that you have a hole in your pocket is solely because "the damned Pindos stretched out their bony hands to your pension."

Many Russians remember empty store shelves, shortages, lost savings in the nineties. At that time, significant inflation was an indicator of future changes. The Government of the country denied the rumors about the reform, but in the summer the exchange of Soviet-style banknotes did take place.

Not surprisingly, in the current situation, this option comes to mind: economic crisis, rising prices, the depreciation of the ruble against the currency and denials from the leadership cannot but alert citizens who have gone through two monetary reforms at once.

In the article, we propose to consider how reasonable the assumptions andIs monetary reform possible in Russia in 2017?To do this, we first turn to theory.

What is monetary reform?

A monetary reform is usually understood as some kind of forced transformation of the existing monetary system, resulting in the replacement of existing monetary units. The likelihood of a monetary reform increases during periods of economic recovery, and the main goal is precisely its stabilization.

Main reform measures:

• Nullification: withdrawal of depreciated money from circulation and the introduction of new banknotes.
• Restoration: restoration of the gold backing of the monetary unit.
• Denomination: change of denomination of money.
• Devaluation: depreciation of local money in relation to currencies.

Causes

The main reasons that ensure the need for a monetary reform are as follows:

• political (for example, the formation of the state);
• economic (to spur economic growth, hyperinflation);
• psychological (increased confidence in the currency).

For understanding, it is useful to consider one of the main reasons for the 1993 reform. After the collapse of the Union, the former Soviet republics had the opportunity to print monetary units THE USSR. But at the same time, everyone wanted to switch to new money. The Russian government was unable to control the unsecured money masses that poured in from the CIS countries. The only solution at that time could only be a monetary reform with the replacement of old rubles. Another question is that they spent it unexpectedly and during the holidays.

Kinds

Distinguish between full and partial monetary reform.

Possible reasons for the reform in 2017

Is monetary reform expected in Russia in 2017 and in what form? In the coming year, denomination and devaluation seem to be the most probable. Proponents of this assumption point to economic reasons, taking place and growing since 2014:

1. inflation driven low prices for petroleum products on the world market. A further fall could trigger ruble depreciation and hyperinflation. This can lead to denomination.
2. Russia's foreign policy, EU economic sanctions and the country's unattractiveness in terms of investment will spur the collapse of the ruble against currencies.
3. The budget deficit in the future will lead to the inability to pay the external debt and the uncontrolled rise in prices.

What to expect?

However, there are also anti-reasons that explain thatmonetary reform 2017 in Russia inappropriate under the current conditions. In addition to the fact that the policy pursued by the current Government does not imply such a decision and everything possible is being done to stabilize, there are a few more points:

These are just some of the reasons explaining the low likelihood that there will bemonetary reform in Russia in 2017. Last news,voicing the point of view of the country's leadership, cite the words of the head of the Central Bank, who spoke very categorically about the rumors about a possible monetary reform. A similar position, namely the impossibility of holding it in Russia, is taken by the Government represented by the President and the Prime Minister.

What point of view to adhere to - everyone decides for himself.We, having voiced both sides, can only hope that this kind of shock will not await our country in the future.

Russia is currently in an economic crisis, so everyone is worried about the future of the ruble and inflation itself. At the top, so far, they are not discussing a change of money. So no one knows for sure whether a confiscatory currency reform or a denomination of our currency can be ruled out. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that our neighbor Belarus has already decided to change old rubles for new ones.

What are the options?

After sanctions were imposed on Russia, there was a transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble and a significant decrease in oil prices, it was clear that our wooden one dived deep against the dollar and the euro. Of course, the Russian currency will continue to float in 2017, because no one is going to lift sanctions, even those countries that have suffered from them themselves.

But oil could theoretically become even cheaper. All such factors can lead to hyperinflation in a country with a depreciating ruble. Subsequently, the authorities will be forced to recognize the denomination as expedient. It should be noted, by the way, that the denomination Belarusian ruble has already been approved by decree of the President of the Republic. It will also happen against the backdrop of prolonged inflation. According to many experts, if you remove 4 zeros from banknotes, then Lukashenko's government will rather imitate stabilization.

What history tells us

IN recent history the most memorable and largest denominations were in three states:

1. Zimbabwe - In the 2000s, the country experienced an economic disaster and a similar string of denominations of the unbacked Zimbabwean dollar. The process itself ended with the fact that the dollar was put into circulation. Only in this way could the authorities bring down inflation.
2. Yugoslavia - 1989-1994. she also experienced a very terrible hyperinflation and a series of denominations that occurred once a year. It all got to the point that the country issued a banknote of the largest denomination in the entire history of money - 500 sextillion dollars.
3. Germany - when the country went through a crisis after the defeat in the First World War, the result was the circulation of paper stamps. They were also denominated in 1924 at 1 to a trillion.

Over the entire history in Russia and the USSR there were more than 10 monetary reforms. Among them was the confiscated Pavlovskaya in 1991. the denomination also took place in 1998 with the parallel circulation of new and old money, the exchange of the latter in the branches of the Bank of the country without restrictions. And this year, Russia defaulted.

What the authorities think about 2017

In our time, there are no conditions for hyperinflation. Economists see little to no reason to be concerned. And you can trust them, if only because the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation are only growing. Therefore, our currency is sufficiently secured, and the fate of the Yugoslav or Zimbabwean currency does not threaten it. It is also worth noting that the Russian authorities are clearly making great efforts to stabilize the economy, but the monetary reform may have the opposite effect:

- to undermine the confidence of Russians in the ruble;

- cause panic;

- spur inflation, exacerbate price increases;

sharply increase the threat of default and even lead to it.

It is not profitable for the authorities to carry out a confiscatory monetary reform today. Denomination - economically. First of all, it needs a lot of expenses, and secondly, there is no need for it, because the rise in prices in the country has recently slowed down, and the fall of the ruble has also stopped. The latest and encouraging news tells us that recently the head of the Central Bank, Nabiullina, during her speech in the State Duma, categorically rejected the possibility of such a turn of events for the 2017 monetary reform.