Lev Margolin, economist:

– There will be no significant differences in the country’s economy compared to this year. The decline will continue. Perhaps less than this year, but there will be no growth. How significant this decline will be depends on the outcome of negotiations with Russia on oil and gas.

As for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar, if the National Bank continues its tight monetary policy, the dollar movement next year will be within 10% - maximum 20%. If a shrinking economy forces massive cash injections in the form of loans, then the rate increase could be 50% or even 100%. Everything is in the hands of the authorities.

People's wages will continue to fall. To reverse this trend, the country needs investment, primarily foreign. But they are not expected. The second way to increase wages is through massive job cuts. But the authorities most likely will not dare to do this.

Unemployment will certainly rise. Enterprises will reduce production volumes, demand for their products will continue to fall, and they will try to get rid of unnecessary ballast in the form of labor.

Anton Boltochko, economist:

– Next year is a year in which important economic and political decisions will need to be made. Without them, it will not be possible to wait out or survive the current economic situation once again.

If we nevertheless accept the inertial scenario, in which economic policy remains at the same level, in the same form as now, then we will face another year of recession and a decline in GDP. The economic picture can be called Nebrezhnev's modern Belarusian economic stagnation.

The decline in household incomes will continue, unemployment, both registered and unregistered, will increase due to the difficult financial situation of enterprises. I don’t believe in the 9% inflation that the authorities are talking about. It will be higher, and its level will affect the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar.

This year it was supported by the donation of currency by the population. Next year, unfortunately, Belarusians will have less money, and as a result we will see a weakening of the national currency. There will be no landslide devaluation, and, most likely, the Belarusian ruble will fall in price by the level of inflation with minor deviations.

Yaroslav Romanchuk, economist:

– Next year will be more difficult than this one. The economic recession will not end. How much it will fall in 2017 – by 1% or 4% – will depend on how many conditional black swans will fly to Belarus. We will, no doubt, receive a couple from Russia in the form of supplies of oil, gas, prices for potash fertilizers and terms of trade on the Russian market. Exports will fall, there is nowhere to expect investment.

The real estate market will continue to fall.

State-owned enterprises will actively lay off workers, and unemployment in the country will de facto rise to 500 thousand people. If the company performs well, the salary of its remaining employees will be 250-400 dollars in a very good scenario. If the company falls under restructuring, 150–200 dollars will seem like happiness.

The National Bank will most likely not be able to continue its tight monetary policy as this year, and inflation will be more than 10%. A dollar will cost three Belarusian rubles, and in a pessimistic scenario even more.

Just like a year and a half ago, the head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on September 19 threatened the government of the country with resignation if his instructions were not fulfilled. Then such threats were followed by the dismissal of many officials. What will happen this time?

In March 2018, an article was written that predicted a government crisis and devaluation of the Belarusian ruble.

It would seem that the new government should have learned the lessons of its predecessor and a similar situation should not be repeated. But only about a year has passed since his appointment, and the situation is repeating itself, almost copying the events of 2018: Lukashenko again threatens the government with resignation, and, in fact, for the same reason as the last time.

Formally, of course, the situation looks different - then the government fell out of favor for sabotaging the order of the head of state to provide wages in the amount of 1 thousand rubles, although the budget was in surplus and there was money to increase wages.

The current government seems to be trying to sabotage the mandate to increase GDP this year by 4% (the budget is still in surplus, but the government is not spending money to boost the economy), which casts doubt on achieving the goal of growing our country’s GDP to $100 billion. .

However, the situation is complicated by the fact that the budget is in surplus with the approval of Lukashenko.

Lukashenko reminded about the elections

All this became clear after a meeting with the head of state on September 19. It reviewed the results of the current year and draft forecast documents for 2020.

As it turned out, three out of seven forecast parameters for the current year have not yet been met: for export growth, for GDP growth and labor productivity. In this regard, the president stated that “everything planned must be implemented,” and if “the development parameters for 2019 are not met, all those responsible - from the prime minister - will retire.”

He also emphasized that he is alarmed by the fact that economic growth in the country “is not only modest, but also extremely unstable, to put it mildly. This trend needs to be changed. Those who want and can, stay and change.”

Indeed, according to the results of January-August of this year, the GDP of Belarus increased by only 1.1%, and this despite the target for the year being 4% and growth in January-July of 1.3%.

Lukashenko also noted that those officials who know how to listen to him and carry out his instructions will continue to work with him, and invited those who disagree with this practice to leave: “If Rumas and Kochanova, deputy prime ministers and ministers do not hear me, then you better pack your portfolios and leave immediately."

Lukashenko also stated that “we cannot take the position of outside observers and be content with balance. Fictional, written down on paper. People, putting their trust in during various kinds of campaigns, including political ones, did not vote for this and this is not what they demand from us.”

Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Sergey Rumas after criticism on September 19, he showed composure and said that in the remaining months the government would make every effort to make up for lost time. It may be noted that he did not say that the GDP growth plans would be met.

This revealed a fundamental difference in the attitude of officials and the head of state to his instructions. Officials believe that their job is to try their best, while Lukashenko believes that the result is important. This is a fundamental contradiction of the Belarusian management system.

The National Bank does not expect GDP growth of 4%

How it will be resolved this time is still unknown. On the one hand, despite Sergei Rumas’ promise to do everything possible, the government is unlikely to be able to raise GDP growth rates to 4%.

Thus, experts from the Eurasian Development Bank believe that there will be no significant and sustainable acceleration in the growth rate of Belarusian GDP in the short term. They wrote about this in the bank’s monthly information and analytical review for August 2019.

Experts noted that the acceleration of the growth rate of the Belarusian economy in January-July 2019 to 1.3% from 0.9% in the first half of the year was due to short-term factors, in particular, good weather, that is, this process will not continue.

Indeed, in January-July 2019, the GDP growth rate decreased to 1.1%, and this was caused by a decrease in agricultural production.

Even the National Bank believes that GDP will increase this year by only 2.9%. Pavel Kallaur said this in an interview with the British magazine for investors fDi Magazine, which published materials about investment opportunities in Belarus, paid for by the National Agency for Investment and Privatization of the Republic of Belarus.

The head of the National Bank again spoke about the need for structural changes in the country and called on foreign investors to believe in the further improvement of the business climate in the Republic of Belarus and to invest their funds in Belarus.

Of course, one can hope for this, but in the context of the creeping global economic crisis, investors are now more eager not to invest in emerging markets, but to withdraw.

However, for now the government is looking for ways to grow GDP and exports. In particular, on September 24, Sergei Rumas held a meeting with transport workers. It discussed measures aimed at increasing the export of transport services.

However, the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus Alexey Avramenko honestly said that there will be no growth this year, exports will remain at last year’s level and amount to about 4.5 billion dollars.

Forecast: the government will still work

Thus, there is no chance of a sharp increase in GDP in the coming months. But this does not make the government's resignation inevitable. There is an important difference between the current conflict and last year's, indicating that Lukashenko is unlikely to rush to take radical measures.

Namely, the government and the president avoid any specific figures. They did not talk about a GDP of 100 billion dollars, nor did they talk about the plan for GDP growth this year by 4%. This is being done for a reason, but apparently so that Lukashenko cannot later be reproached for not fulfilling his threats if he does not dismiss the government.

The fact is that the government has several scenarios for economic development and growth of 4% corresponds to the most optimistic one. Therefore, Lukashenko will always be able to say that he did not mean 4%, but growth within the framework of one of the pessimistic scenarios.

That is, so far the head of state’s intentions to dismiss the government do not seem very serious. Apparently, the fate of the government largely depends on the mood of voters during the parliamentary and presidential elections.

If Lukashenko considers the mood negative for himself, then he may well arrange a demonstrative resignation of the government. That is, if the government fails to provide the people with bread, then the president will provide the people with the spectacle of the resignation of officials.

As for the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, it can be carried out as one of the measures to support Belarusian exports, and may also be a consequence of easing the monetary policy of the National Bank and the government.

This is quite possible, since they do not have much money to accelerate the rate of GDP growth. And so they have already lasted long enough without mitigation (except for the increase in wages at the expense of the budget), as a result of which the GDP growth rate in our country remains at such a low level.

China and the United States are stimulating their economies with all their might, and they are growing without any foreign investors. At the same time, China is slowly devaluing the yuan, and even in the United States Donald Trump is trying to weaken the dollar, although so far without much success.

The dean of the Faculty of Economics of BSU, Mikhail Kovalev, shared his view on the situation in the global and Belarusian economy and the forecast for the development of events with listeners of Radio TUT.BY live.

Listen to the audio version of the telephone conversation here

To what extent, in your opinion, are pessimistic forecasts regarding the development of the economic situation during the crisis justified?

Regarding the situation in the world, I am a moderate pessimist, but regarding Belarus I am rather an optimist. I don’t see any big reasons for the further decline of the Belarusian economy. The drop in exports that occurred at the end of last year and in the first two months of this year, when we dropped from monthly exports of $3.5 billion to $1.3 billion, is now beginning to correct itself. There is hope that, taking into account the adjustment in oil prices, exports will more or less recover by summer. And this is the main thing for the Belarusian economy.

But where will exports come from if pessimistic forecasts for the global economy do come true?

But the most pessimistic forecast says that the world economy this year will shrink by a maximum of 2%, that is, it will not be $65 trillion. according to purchasing power parity, but a couple of trillions less. And world trade, indeed, due to protectionist measures taken by almost every state, will fall more this year - by about 10%. So, nothing terrible will happen if Belarusian exports fall by the same 10% compared to last year.

Let this year not be so bad. But the most pessimistic forecasts suggest that the crisis will drag on for many years

One American rating agency has just conducted a survey of 52 of the world's most famous economists. So they said that it seems that the crisis has already reached its bottom. It is clear that we will be at the bottom for some time, because the economy, weakened by the crisis, will not recover so quickly. But the majority opinion is that we have already reached the bottom. Of course, it is always easier to fall than to rise, and getting out of the crisis will not be easy. Moreover, apparently, this exit will create a new configuration of the world economy.

So, there is no threat of a general shortage of food on food cards in Belarus?

No, this crisis is not characterized by shortages, but, on the contrary, by overproduction. Nothing to buy! There is something to buy, but there is not enough money - this is the main problem during the years of crisis. Because a crisis is not so much an economic as a psychological phenomenon, a phenomenon of mistrust of business entities, banks, and even governments. This leads to a shortage of one of the main resources of a market economy - capital.

The government of our country states that the consequences of the crisis on the Belarusian economy are reflected less than in other countries, citing the continued, albeit small, but still GDP growth. Will GDP growth help us during the crisis?

GDP growth is the main thing. After all, we can only divide what we have created into salary, pension, benefits and investments. As we see, the crisis arose due to the fact that many lived in debt for too long. Nowadays, living in debt, “for free,” won’t work out very well. You can only live on what you yourself have produced. If we produce less, we will consume less. The people have already felt the fact that GDP growth has slowed from 10% to 1%. So GDP growth is the foundation for everything else.

How do you feel about import restriction measures?

This measure is forced, it was adopted for only six months, however, if the economic situation requires it, it can be adopted again after six months. I’ll say one thing for sure: if this measure had been adopted a year ago, there would not have been a New Year’s devaluation. I am convinced that this measure alone would be enough to curb consumer imports into the country. Moreover, a year ago it had to be adopted in an even stricter regime than it was accepted today. But of the two possible measures, the government adopted a one-time devaluation.

Imports have been contained, but exports are still not increasing, and the negative foreign trade balance has already reached the forecast for the year - minus $1.5 billion. Will this lead to another devaluation in the near future?

It is precisely such a measure as raising prices for imported goods that have domestic analogues that should reduce the balance, if not by one and a half, then at least by half a billion. Let me give you these numbers. Last year we imported $6 billion worth of consumer imports into the country. Now, if we had given up one and a half of these six, we would already have a zero trade balance. I think that the measures taken will gradually level out the foreign economic situation.

As for devaluation, I am convinced that it will not happen before the end of the year. But by the end of the year a psychological problem will appear. I think the government and the National Bank are now developing a set of measures that will avoid devaluation at the end of the year and, more importantly, convince the population that it will not happen.

To present the “convinced” population with another New Year’s surprise?

I think we can do without surprises this time. Devaluation is the most painful method. It reduces our wages, increases our debt on loans and generally reduces our standard of living. It would be better to resort to such, of course, also unpopular, protectionist measures to curb imports. And there is no third way out.

How do you generally assess the anti-crisis measures that the Belarusian government is taking?

The government is taking, in general, the right measures, but it needs to act more decisively and energetically. As I already said, curbing imports should have started a year ago. In addition, it was necessary to stop lending for the purchase of cars and similar non-essential goods. If banks had put the brakes on widespread import lending last year, there would have been no need to even think about devaluation. After all, of the 15 trillion rubles that we brought to the banks, we managed to give most of it to those who did not have this money, so that they could buy imported goods on credit. And the welfare of our country was not yet so brilliant that its population could buy imported goods worth 6 billion dollars.

What is your forecast: when will the crisis end?

If we look at purely economic indicators, there is no decline in gross domestic product in Belarus yet, which means there is no recession. In other countries there is a decrease, and quite a significant one. If we talk about all the factors together, in order to restore the growth that we had before the crisis, to restore lending, including for imported goods, all this, it seems to me, will take at least two years. For comparison, the Russian default of 1998, from the point of view of export recovery, we experienced for five years. So there won't be an immediate recovery.

4 January 2017, 08:44

Independence Square in Minsk

Belarus ended the past year with growing problems. In 2017, the country's authorities expect a powerful impetus for the economy. Experts talk about feeling for the bottom. collected forecasts for Belarus.

Belarus ended the past year with a stagnating economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, the President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he has high hopes for 2017: “It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country.” Analysts surveyed by DW are noticeably less optimistic about the future. They made their forecasts for DW for the coming year, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.

1. Finding the bottom in the economy

“Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they are already too late.”, the editor-in-chief of Economic Newspaper noted in an interview with DW. Leonid Fridkin. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.

Project Manager "Kosht ​​Urada" Vladimir Kovalkin in a conversation with DW suggested that 2017 "preparing the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and the search for that very cherished bottom". At the same time, the expert points out that it is more likely “The leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters set in the budget.”

2. Return to the promise of $500 paychecks

In his New Year's address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: “No matter what it costs us, we will significantly increase citizens’ incomes in the coming year.” December 21 upon appointment Natalia Kochanova the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenko, voiced a more specific goal: "The average salary next year is $500. Despite all the difficulties, no matter what it takes - steal, dig up, find, whatever, but $500 must be completed."

According to Belstat, in November the average accrued salary in Belarus was 717 rubles ($366 converted). The implementation of a similar demand by Lukashenko before the 2010 presidential campaign the year after the elections led to a threefold devaluation of the ruble. Economists interviewed by DW do not consider a repeat of that collapse likely.

Expert of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies (BISS) Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky suggested that no one would seriously carry out this verbal instruction from the president: “As far as I understand, this (an average salary of $500 - Ed.) is not stated anywhere in the target indicators of program documents. This means that there will be nothing to ask the officials for.”. The expert emphasized that in order to achieve 500-dollar salaries, the printing press will have to be turned on again, inflation will start and the stability of the ruble exchange rate will decrease, “and this has already been done many times.”

Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenko, speaking with journalists, returned to the topic of 500-dollar salaries, clarifying : “Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. Whatever it costs us, we will move towards this goal.”

3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies

Each pumping of money into the Belarusian economy ended in another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. “There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and the temptation to solve the problem of growth through emissions. But such a probability is minimal as long as there is hope to receive loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD),” - Leonid Fridkin is sure.

Structural reforms, the necessity of which independent economists insist, from their point of view, are possible either under the influence of external factors (the demands of foreign creditors) or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.

Pavel Daneyko, the general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW, called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other choice for the government. By the way, such restructuring is one of the main conditions for granting Belarus a loan from the IMF.

Experts interviewed by DW doubt that the authorities in Minsk will dare to massively bankrupt insolvent enterprises. “Rather, they will try to drag their feet and look for ways to correct the situation through the usual administrative measures,”- says Friedkin.

4. Continuation of the oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia

Belarus entered the New Year with an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Belarus Vladimir Semashko On December 29 he told BELTA that "we remain optimistic". According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes “to reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017.”

Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less favorable conditions for purchasing oil and gas from the Russian Federation. “The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and negotiations will become increasingly difficult,”- the expert predicts.

5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution

The Belarusian left intends to magnificently celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians intend to remember the victims of communist terror. Head of the Warsaw Center for Policy Analysis and Forecasts Pavel Usov in an interview with DW, he noted that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.

“Most likely, the population will face new forms of economic coercion (such as a tax on parasitism) from the authorities, which will increase protest sentiments and discontent. But it is unlikely to find expression in open opposition to the authorities, with the exception of local riots,”- Usov believes.

For the Chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP) Anatoly Lebedko 2017 is mainly a year of risks and challenges: "For citizens - a crisis and a dead-end economic policy of the government. For the authorities - the Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. For supporters of change - a reset by the West of relations with official Minsk."

The campaign for local council elections will begin in November 2017. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the "Tell the Truth" campaign Andrey Dmitriev expressed hope that the elections will be held together with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, providing for parliamentary elections based on party lists.