Macroeconomic equilibrium is a state of the economic system when overall balance and proportionality have been achieved between economic flows of goods, services and factors of production, income and expenses, supply and demand, material and financial flows, etc.

1.2.2. Macroeconomic equilibrium in the “Aggregate demand-aggregate supply” model

In the theory of macroeconomic equilibrium, there are two approaches: classical and Keynesian. Let's consider them separately.

1. Classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium

As in microeconomics, the equilibrium in macroeconomics between the price level and real output is determined by the point of intersection of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves.

Macroeconomic equilibrium involves the interaction of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to determine the general price level and gross national product in a free market. This, in turn, will allow us to discuss the two most important issues facing both society as a whole and the governments of countries with market economies: inflation and unemployment.

Fig.60. Macroeconomic equilibrium

The impact of aggregate demand AD and aggregate supply AS is shown in the graph (Fig. 60), where the Keynesian segment - I, classic - III and intermediate - II are highlighted on the AS curve. At the intersection point A, firms hire as much labor as they consider necessary for a given real cost of labor, which, in turn, depends on the current level of wages and the existing price level. This is why firms have no incentive to deviate from A. Workers also have no incentive to deviate from the intersection point by negotiating wages and working conditions with employers. However, not all workers may be satisfied with this situation, especially those who cannot find work paid at existing rates, but they are powerless to change anything in the current situation.

Equilibrium point A suits workers as consumers of goods and services. At a given price level, they can buy as much as they want. This provision applies to firms and abroad: they spend as much as they want, purchasing goods and services produced within the country. Consequently, no economic entity has an incentive to deviate from A - the equilibrium point, which simultaneously determines both the general price level and the size of GNP.

What happens if the balance is disturbed for any reason? Firms produce as much goods as they consider necessary at the existing price level in B, i.e. they produce less goods than in A, receiving a lower price for their products. Consequently, B employs fewer workers and has a higher unemployment rate.

Since B on the graph is below the aggregate demand curve, individual economic entities purchase fewer goods and services than they would like. (At a given price level, they would prefer to be in C.) Thus, aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply (scarcity) by the amount of segment BC.

How will the economic system react to this situation? Manufacturers will raise the price, and buyers themselves may offer higher prices due to shortages. As prices rise, the excess of aggregate demand over aggregate supply is equalized due to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. When the gap is closed, the price level stabilizes. There is a process of automatic regulation similar to the process in microeconomics.

Summarizing the above analysis, we can conclude that the economy itself, without outside intervention, will move towards an equilibrium point if supply is lower than demand. It is quite obvious that if the economy is above A, the “invisible hand” of the market will help create a state of equilibrium in the national market.

The strength of a market economy lies in its inherent mechanisms of self-regulation (the “invisible hand”, as A. Smith puts it). If producers see that their goods are no longer being bought at existing prices, then they themselves, on their own initiative, use both adjustment mechanisms, i.e. will reduce both the volume of products produced and their prices. The driving force behind this behavior is profit. If producers do not respond to market signals, they will inevitably find themselves squeezed out by competitors and risk losing their investment.

2. Keynesian approach to macroeconomic equilibrium

The specifics of this approach are as follows:

National income equilibrium is also possible under conditions of full employment;

Price rigidity;

Savings are a function of income, i.e. S=C o +(1-MRS) x Y, then investments and savings are determined by different factors. If we remember that the produced national income is defined as Y=C+S, and the used ND-Y=C+I, then C+I=C+S, and we can write that I(r)=S(Y), where r is the market rate of interest.

This equality is the condition for macroeconomic equilibrium.

Along with the classical model of equality of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, one can derive an equilibrium version in the “income-expenses” model, also called the “Keynesian cross” (see Fig. 61).

Point E 0 in Fig. 61 shows the equilibrium position of the national economy when ND is equal to consumer spending, and S = 0, i.e. situation of a stagnating economy. By adding private investment (Y=C+I), and then government spending (Y=C+I+O), the national economy will tend to a state of full employment (P).

This state can also occur under the influence of the multiplier effect, as discussed above.

Fig.61. Keynisan cross

It should be noted that an increase in the marginal propensity to save with an increase in the level of personal income does not always have a favorable effect on the state of the national economy. In a stagnating economy (i.e., during a period of stagnation of all economic activity), combined with underemployment, a reduction in consumption will lead to overstocking and a decrease in national income, i.e. The "paradox of thrift" appears.

Graphically, the disturbance of macroequilibrium will have the form shown in Fig. 62.

Fig.62. Disturbances of macroequilibrium

In position Y 1 with AD>AS under conditions of full employment, an inflationary gap occurs, i.e. I>S, therefore, a lack of savings will lower the level of investment, resulting in a decrease in production, which, with growing demand, increases inflation.

In position Y 2 at AS>AD under conditions of full employment, a deflationary gap occurs, i.e. S>I. This situation is characterized by production growth with low current demand, which leads the national economy into recession.

Macroeconomic equilibrium is possible E p , with HD=Y p, where AS=AD and I=S.

Properties of macroeconomic equilibrium:

1. Inflation is always a consequence of aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply, since in the absence of excess aggregate demand there is no reason for prices to rise. Although excess of aggregate demand can occur for various reasons, including due to the state budget deficit and monetary expansion

2. Macroeconomic equilibrium does not guarantee full employment.

3. In a state of macroeconomic equilibrium, the volume of imports may exceed the volume of exports, therefore the state accumulates external debt. In the opposite situation, foreign exchange reserves increase.

4. In macroeconomic equilibrium, the government bears the costs of providing public goods and services to its citizens. If government spending exceeds tax revenue, the deficit is financed either by external borrowing or by additional money creation. This situation affects the state of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, which will be discussed in other chapters.

ModelAD-AS

Among similar aggregated quantities are aggregate demand (AD - from the English Aggregate demand) and aggregate supply (AS - from the English Aggregate supply). The interaction between them is determined using the AD-AS model, which is the original basic model for macroeconomic equilibrium analysis. With its help, you can not only study the problems of total production, inflation, economic growth, but also identify the impact of economic policy on the situation in the national economy.

As at the level of individual markets, at the macro level the intersection of AD and AS shows the equilibrium output and the equilibrium price level (see Figure 2.1). In other words, the economy is in equilibrium at such values ​​of the real national product and such a price level at which the volume of aggregate demand is equal to the volume of aggregate supply.

Please note that if markets for individual goods are analyzed in such parameters as price and quantity, then the AD-AS model is built in other coordinates. Quantity is the volume of output, i.e. real gross national product, or real national income. Instead of prices for individual goods, a single aggregate price is used, or, more precisely, an indicator of the average price level of the entire set of goods and services, expressed in the form of a price index.

1.2.2.4. Aggregate demand

Aggregate demand is the real amount of gross domestic product that consumers are willing to purchase at any given price level, or the total amount of spending on final goods and services produced in the country (see Figure 2.1). AD consists of consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, government expenditures and net exports (exports minus imports).

In addition, not only shirts and ties, but also many other goods are offered and bought at the market. In this case, we are talking about aggregate supply and demand within the national market. In other words, specific goods - ties and shirts, refrigerators and televisions, pasta and cognac - are combined into a total mass of goods, expressed not in pieces, tons or meters, but in value terms.

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply

Macroeconomics deals with aggregate, aggregate indicators. There is not a multitude here, but one total producer, one total consumer, one national market. Demand appears not as the demand of individual buyers or groups of the population, but as the total effective demand on the scale of the national economy.

On the one hand, this is the aggregate demand of households for consumer goods and services (C), firms for investment goods and services (I), and states for goods and services purchased by the state (G). On the other hand, this is the supply of gross domestic product, calculated in relation to the current price level.

So, aggregate demand is the demand for the total volume of goods and services that can be supplied at a given price level, and aggregate supply is the total quantity of goods and services that can be produced and offered in accordance with the prevailing price level.

Problems of macroeconomics are problems of the functioning of individual sectors and the economy as a whole, i.e. at the national level. The most important of them are the problems of ensuring employment, reducing inflation, maintaining optimal rates of development, improving the national economic structure, and “fitting” the national economy into the world economy. These problems do not remain unchanged: their relevance and approaches to solution change, and the objectives and methods of economic policy are revised.

Macroeconomics is a complex, contradictory interaction of supply and demand, costs and results, income and expenses. The most important “regulators” are price instruments and the competition mechanism. Other non-price factors are also included in the process and affect the economic situation - demographic shifts, geographic location, national and historical traditions, level of professional training. As a result, instability and disequilibrium arise. They are especially characteristic of a transition economy, in which informal institutions - customs, traditions, and a code of economic behavior - play an extremely important role.

Macroeconomic disequilibrium is inflation, a decline in production, and balance of payments imbalances. In order to analyze and manage a specific situation in the market (markets), a non-equilibrium situation, you need to have an idea of ​​what equilibrium (equilibrium) is.

Macroeconomic equilibrium in the economy

In its most general form, equilibrium in the economy is the balance and proportionality of its main parameters, in other words, a situation where participants in economic activities have no incentive to change the existing situation.

Conclusions from the Walras model

The main conclusion arising from Walras' model is the interconnectedness and interdependence of all prices as a regulatory instrument, not only in the goods market, but in all markets. Prices for consumer goods are set in relationship and interaction with prices for factors of production, labor prices - taking into account and under the influence of product prices, etc.

Equilibrium prices are established as a result of the interconnectedness of all markets (goods markets, labor markets, money markets, securities markets).

In this model, the possibility of the existence of equilibrium prices simultaneously in all markets is proven mathematically. Due to its inherent mechanism, a market economy strives towards this equilibrium.

From the theoretically achievable economic equilibrium, the conclusion follows about the relative stability of the system of market relations. The establishment (“groping”) of equilibrium prices occurs in all markets and, ultimately, leads to an equilibrium of supply and demand for them.

Equilibrium in the economy is not reduced to the equilibrium of exchange, to market equilibrium. From Walras's theoretical concept follows the principle of interconnectedness of the main elements (markets, spheres, sectors) of a market economy.

Walras's model is a simplified, conventional picture of the national economy. It does not consider how equilibrium is established in development and dynamics. It does not take into account many factors that operate in practice, for example, psychological motives and expectations. The model considers established markets, established infrastructure that meets market needs.

Macroeconomic disequilibrium

The functioning of the market mechanism is sometimes compared to the interaction and strict coupling of elements of a clock or other similar mechanism. However, this comparison is very conditional. The market mechanism operates successfully when there are no sharp price fluctuations or unforeseen and dangerous influences of external factors. Deep and unpredictable price surges throw market economies into disarray. The usual financial and legal regulators are not working. The market does not want to return to an equilibrium state or does not return to normal immediately, but gradually, with significant costs and losses.

As a result, there are many differences between the traditional picture emerging in the macromarket, in which equilibrium prices occupy commanding heights, and the “atypical” situation generated by the unconventional behavior of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves.

The system of equilibrium prices as a kind of “ideal” exists only in theory. In real economic practice, prices constantly deviate from equilibrium. Sometimes the “habitual” relationships no longer work; Contradictory and sometimes unexpected situations arise. Some of them are called "traps".

As an example, let us refer to the so-called liquidity trap, in which the amount of money in circulation (in liquid form) grows, and the decrease in the interest (discount) rate practically stops.

“Liquidity trap” is a situation when the interest rate is at an extremely low level. This would seem to be good: the lower the interest rate, the cheaper the loan and, therefore, the more favorable the conditions for productive investment.

In reality, this situation turns out to be close to a dead end. It is not possible to “spur” investments with the help of interest, since no one wants to part with money and store it in banks. Savings do not turn into investments. Keynes believed that lowering interest rates in order to increase the profitability of investments has its limits. A liquidity trap is an indicator of the ineffectiveness of monetary policy.

Another situation, called the “equilibrium trap,” arises in a transition economy due to a sharp decline in household incomes. Equilibrium at an unjustifiably low level of income for the main groups of the population is a dead end. Due to the erosion of effective demand, getting out of this situation is extremely difficult. The “equilibrium trap” prevents the exit from the crisis and the achievement of stability.

The significance of the Walras equilibrium model

This model helps to understand the features of the market mechanism, self-regulation processes, tools and methods for restoring broken connections, and ways to achieve stability and sustainability of the market system.

Let's say investment prospects improve; the interest rate remains unchanged. Then entrepreneurs will expand capital investments in production. As a result, due to the multiplier effect, national income will increase. As income increases, feedback will begin to flow. There will be a shortage of funds in the money market, and the balance in this market will be disrupted. The demand of business participants for money will increase. As a result, the interest rate will rise.

The process of mutual influence between the two markets does not end there. A higher interest rate will “slow down” investment activity, which in turn will affect the level of national income (it will decrease slightly).

Now macro equilibrium has been established at point E 1 at the intersection of the IS 1 and LM curves.

Equilibrium in the goods market and in the money market is determined simultaneously by the rate of interest (r) and the level of income (Y). For example, the equality between saving and investment can be expressed as follows: S(Y) = I (r).

The equilibrium of regulatory instruments (r and Y) in both markets is formed interconnectedly and simultaneously. When the process of interaction between two markets is completed, a new level of r and Y is established

The IS-LM model was recognized by Keynes and became very popular. This model means a specification of the Keynesian interpretation of functional relationships in the commodity and money markets. It helps to present the functional dependencies in these markets, the monetary equilibrium diagram according to Keynes, and the influence of economic policy on the economy.

The model helps to substantiate the state’s financial and monetary policies, identifying their relationship and effectiveness. Interestingly, the Hicks-Hansen model is used by proponents of both Keynesian and monetarist approaches. This achieves a kind of synthesis of these two schools.

The conclusion from the model is this: if the money supply decreases, then credit conditions become stricter and the interest rate rises. As a result, the demand for money will decrease slightly. Part of the money will be used to purchase more profitable assets. The balance between the demand for money and its supply will be disrupted and then established at a new point. The interest rate here will be lower, and there will be less money in circulation. Under these conditions, the central bank will adjust its policy: the money supply will increase, the interest rate will decrease, i.e. the process will go in the opposite direction.

Equilibrium in statics and dynamics

5. In a transition economy, achieving equilibrium is one of the goals of the ongoing reforms. The transition to a market equilibrium system is a very complex, contradictory and lengthy process.

Terms and concepts

Aggregate demand
Aggregate offer
Macroeconomic equilibrium
Equilibrium in commodity and money markets
"Liquidity trap"
Model AD-AS
Model IS-LM
Macroeconomic disequilibrium
General equilibrium conditions
Walras' law
Keynes' theory of macroeconomic equilibrium

Self-test questions

1. What non-price factors currently have the most significant impact on aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the Russian economy?

2. What impact do the following factors have on aggregate demand and aggregate supply:

reduction in oil exports due to falling production;

reduction in world prices for liquid fuels and non-ferrous metals?

3. If GDP increased by 4%, and total income increased by 2%, then what consequences should this lead to? What happens if, on the contrary, GDP increases by 2% and total income by 4%?

4. Compare general and partial economic equilibrium. What are the differences and relationships between them?

5. How do the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves interact in the Keynesian AD-AS model?

6. Explain how equilibrium is established in the money market and the goods market according to the IS-LM model.

7. Explain whether general equilibrium can occur in the presence of imbalances in the economy? What are the advantages of a market system of macroregulation and ensuring general equilibrium?

Macroeconomic equilibrium is a state of the national economy when the use of limited production resources to create goods and services and their distribution among various members of society are balanced, i.e. there is an overall proportionality between:

Resources and their use;

Factors of production and the results of their use;

Total production and total consumption;

Aggregate supply and aggregate demand;

Material, material and financial flows.

Consequently, macroeconomic equilibrium presupposes the stable use of their interests in all spheres of the national economy.

Such balance is an economic ideal: without bankruptcies and natural disasters, without socio-economic upheavals. In economic theory, the macroeconomic ideal is the construction of general equilibrium models of the economic system. In real life, various violations of the requirements of such a model occur. But the importance of theoretical models of macroeconomic equilibrium makes it possible to determine specific factors of deviations of real processes from ideal ones and to find ways to realize the optimal state of the economy.

For macroeconomics, equilibrium means equality between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. At the same time, for macroeconomics, the optimal state is when aggregate demand coincides with aggregate supply (Fig. 1). It is called macroeconomic equilibrium and is achieved at the intersection point of the aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) curves.

The intersection of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves determines the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium real volume of national production. It means that at a given price level (P E), the entire produced national product (Y E) will be sold. One thing to keep in mind here is the ratchet effect, which is that prices go up easily but are difficult to go down. Therefore, when aggregate demand decreases, prices cannot be expected to fall over a short period. Producers will respond to a decrease in aggregate demand by reducing production and only then, if this does not help, lower prices. The prices of goods and resources, once increased, do not immediately fall when aggregate demand decreases.

Figure 1 Macroeconomic equilibrium

The following signs of macroeconomic equilibrium can be distinguished:

correspondence between public goals and real economic opportunities;

full use of all economic resources of society - land, labor, capital, information;

balance of supply and demand in all major markets at the micro level;

free competition, equality of all buyers in the market;

immutability of economic situations.

Distinguish general And private macroeconomic equilibrium. General equilibrium means such a state of the economy as a whole when there is a correspondence (coordinated development) of all spheres of the economic system, taking into account the interests of society and its members, that is, overall proportionality and proportionality between the most important parameters of the formation of the macroeconomy: factors of economic growth and their use; production and consumption, consumption and accumulation, demand for goods and services and their supply; material and financial flows, etc.

In contrast to general (macroeconomic) equilibrium, which covers the economic system as a whole, private (local) equilibrium is limited to the framework of individual aspects and spheres of the national economy (budget, monetary circulation, etc.). General and particular equilibrium are relatively autonomous. Thus, the absence of partial equilibrium in any link of the economic system does not mean that the latter as a whole is not in equilibrium. And vice versa, the lack of equilibrium in the economic system does not exclude the lack of equilibrium in its individual links. However, the known independence of general and private equilibrium does not mean that there is no relationship and internal unity between them. After all, the state of the macroeconomic system as a whole cannot but influence the functioning of its individual parts. In turn, processes in local spheres cannot but have a certain impact on the state of the macroeconomic system as a whole.

As a condition for general (macroeconomic) equilibrium in the economy, we can distinguish: firstly, the correspondence of social goals and capabilities (material, financial, labor, etc.); secondly, full and effective use of all factors of economic growth; thirdly, the correspondence of the production structure to the consumption structure; fourthly, market equilibrium, the balance of aggregate supply and demand in the markets of goods, labor, services, technologies and loan capital, which must interact with each other.

The actual macroeconomic equilibrium of the entire system, not subject to spontaneous processes, inflation, decline in business activity and bankruptcies, is ideal, theoretically desirable. Such equilibrium is characterized by the complete optimality of the implementation of economic behavior and interests of subjects in all structural elements, sectors and areas of the macroeconomy. However, to ensure this balance, a number of reproduction conditions must be met (all individuals can find consumer goods on the market, and entrepreneurs can find factors of production, the entire social product must be sold, etc.). In the economic life of society, these conditions are usually not met. Therefore, there is a real macroeconomic equilibrium, which is established in the economic system under conditions of imperfect competition and external factors influencing the market.

However, ideal economic equilibrium, which is abstract in nature, is necessary for scientific analysis. This macroeconomic equilibrium model makes it possible to determine deviations of real processes from ideal ones, to develop a system of measures to balance and optimize reproduction proportions.

Thus, all economic systems strive for an equilibrium state. But the degree to which the state of the economy approaches the ideal (abstract) macroeconomic equilibrium model depends on the socio-economic, political and other objective and subjective conditions of society.

The following models of macroeconomic equilibrium are distinguished: classical and Keynesian.

Classical macroeconomic equilibrium model dominated economic science for about 100 years, until the 30s of the 20th century. It is based on J. Say's law: The production of goods creates its own demand. Each manufacturer is at the same time a buyer - sooner or later he purchases goods produced by another person for the amount received from the sale of his own goods. Thus, macroeconomic equilibrium is ensured automatically: everything that is produced is sold. This similar model requires the fulfillment of three conditions:

every person is both a consumer and a producer;

all producers spend only their own income;

the income is completely spent.

But in the real economy, part of the income is saved by households. Therefore, aggregate demand decreases by the amount saved. Consumption expenditures are insufficient to purchase all products produced. As a result, unsold surpluses are created, which causes a decline in production, increased unemployment and decreased income.

In the classical model, the lack of funds for consumption caused by savings is compensated by investment. If entrepreneurs invest the same amount as households save, then Say’s law applies, i.e. the level of production and employment remains constant. The main task is to encourage entrepreneurs to invest as much money as they spend on savings. It is decided in the money market, where supply is represented by savings, demand by investments, and price by interest rates. The money market self-regulates savings and investments using the equilibrium interest rate ( rice. 2).

The higher the interest rate, the more money is saved (because the owner of the capital receives more dividends). Therefore, the saving curve (S) will be upward sloping. The investment curve (I), on the other hand, is downward sloping because the interest rate affects costs and entrepreneurs will borrow and invest more money at a lower interest rate. The equilibrium interest rate (r 0) occurs at point E. Here the quantity of money saved equals the quantity of money invested, or in other words, the quantity of money supplied equals the demand for money.

Figure 2 Classic model of the relationship between investment and savings

The second factor ensuring equilibrium is the elasticity of prices and wages . If for some reason the interest rate does not change at a constant ratio of savings and investment, then the increase in savings is compensated by a decrease in prices, as producers seek to get rid of surplus products. Lower prices allow fewer purchases to be made while maintaining the same level of output and employment.

In addition, a decrease in the demand for goods will lead to a decrease in the demand for labor. Unemployment will cause competition and workers will accept lower wages. Its rates will decrease so much that entrepreneurs will be able to hire all the unemployed. In such a situation, there is no need for government intervention in the economy.

Thus, classical economists proceeded from the flexibility of prices, wages, and interest rates, i.e., from the fact that wages and prices can freely move up and down, reflecting the balance between supply and demand. In their opinion, the aggregate supply curve AS has the form of a vertical straight line, reflecting the potential volume of GNP production. A decrease in price entails a decrease in wages, and therefore full employment is maintained. There is no reduction in the value of real GNP. Here all products will be sold at different prices. In other words, a decrease in aggregate demand does not lead to a decrease in GNP and employment, but only to a decrease in prices. Thus, classical theory believes that government economic policy can only affect the price level, and not output and employment. Therefore, its interference in regulating production and employment is undesirable.

The classics concluded that in a market self-regulating economy. Capable of achieving both full output and full employment, government intervention is not required; it can only be detrimental to its effective functioning.

Summarizing the above, we can conclude that the classical model of equilibrium production volume, based on J. Say’s law, assumes:

absolute elasticity, flexibility of wages and prices (for factors of production and finished products);

highlighting aggregate supply as the engine of economic growth;

equality of savings and investments achieved through free pricing in the money market;

the tendency for the volume of aggregate supply to coincide with the potential capabilities of the economy, therefore the aggregate supply curve is represented by a vertical line;

the ability of a market economy, with the help of internal mechanisms, to self-balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply at full employment and full use of other factors of production.

Keynesian model.

In the early 30s of the 20th century, economic processes no longer fit within the framework of the classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium. Thus, a decrease in wages did not lead to a decrease in unemployment, but to its increase. Prices did not decrease even when supply exceeded demand. It is not without reason that many economists criticized the positions of the classics. The most famous of them is the English economist J. Keynes, who in 1936 published the work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” in which he criticized the main provisions of the classical model and developed his own provisions for macroeconomic regulation:

1. savings and investment, according to Keynes, are carried out by different groups of people (households and firms), guided by different motives, and therefore they may not coincide in time and in size;

2. The source of investment is not only household savings, but also funds from credit institutions. Moreover, not all current savings will end up in the money market, since households leave some money on hand, for example, to pay off bank debt. Therefore, the amount of current savings will exceed the amount of investment. This means that Say’s law does not apply and macroeconomic instability sets in: excess savings will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand. As a result, output and employment decline;

3. the interest rate is not the only factor influencing decisions about savings and investment;

4. lowering prices and wages does not eliminate unemployment.

The fact is that the elasticity of the price-wage ratio does not exist, since the market under capitalism is not completely competitive. Monopolistic producers prevent prices from falling, and trade unions prevent wages from falling. The classic assertion that lowering wages in one firm would allow it to hire more workers turned out to be inapplicable to the economy as a whole. According to Keynes, a decrease in wages causes a decline in income for the population and entrepreneurs, which leads to a decrease in demand for both products and labor. Therefore, entrepreneurs will either not hire workers at all, or will hire a small number.

So, the Keynesian theory of macroeconomic equilibrium is based on the following provisions. The growth of national income cannot cause an adequate increase in demand, since an increasing share of it will go to savings. Therefore, production is deprived of additional demand and is reduced, causing unemployment to rise. Therefore, an economic policy is needed that stimulates aggregate demand. In addition, in conditions of stagnation and depression of the economy, the price level is relatively stationary and cannot be an indicator of its dynamics. Therefore, instead of price, J. Keynes proposed introducing the “sales volume” indicator, which changes even at constant prices, because it depends on the quantity of goods sold.

Keynesians believed that the government could promote GDP growth and employment growth by increasing government spending, which would increase demand and keep prices almost unchanged as output increased. With an increase in GNP, there will be an increase in employment. Consequently, in the model of J. Keynes, macroeconomic equilibrium does not coincide with the potential use of production factors and is compatible with a fall in production, the presence of inflation and unemployment. If a situation of full use of production factors is achieved, then the aggregate supply curve will take a vertical form, i.e. actually coincides with the long-term AS curve.

Thus, the volume of aggregate supply in the short run depends mainly on the amount of aggregate demand. In conditions of underemployment of production factors and price rigidity, fluctuations in aggregate demand cause, first of all, changes in the volume of output (supply) and only subsequently can they be reflected in the price level. Empirical data confirms this position.

We can conclude that the most important provisions in the Keynesian theory of macroeconomic equilibrium are the following:

The most important factor determining the level of consumption, and, consequently, the level of savings, is the amount of income received by the population, and the level of investment is mainly influenced by the interest rate. Since savings and investments depend on different and independent variables (income and interest rates), there may be a discrepancy between investment plans and savings plans;

Since savings and investments cannot automatically balance, i.e. in a market economy there is no mechanism that independently ensures economic stability; state intervention in the economic life of society is necessary;

The engine of economic growth is effective aggregate demand, since in the short term, aggregate supply is a given value and is largely oriented toward expected aggregate demand. For this reason, the state must, first of all, regulate the required volume of effective demand.

To summarize, we can conclude that both the classics and Keynesians did a lot to understand macroeconomic equilibrium, but, unfortunately, as practice has shown, the macroeconomic equilibrium models they built were valid only for a short period of time, which, in my opinion, is not surprising, since even economic laws are objective, but any decision in economics, one way or another, is made by people, and they are subjective. Therefore, much more will have to be done to create conditions for the macroeconomic balance to be maintained.

The problem of macroeconomic equilibrium is a central problem in macroeconomics courses. Under macroeconomic equilibrium usually understand the equilibrium of the entire economic system as a whole, which characterizes the balance and proportionality of all economic processes. It is divided into ideal and real.

Perfect Balance is achieved with the full implementation of the economic interests of economic entities in all sectors and spheres of the economy. It assumes the existence of conditions of perfect competition and the absence of externalities.

Real balance is established in the economy in conditions of imperfect competition and taking into account external factors influencing the market environment.

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply

Economic equilibrium is based on the correspondence between the supply of resources and the demand for them, between the production of goods and effective demand, between savings and investments. Macroeconomic equilibrium is achieved when the economy of a state does not suffer from such destructive ailments as inflation, unemployment, etc. Achieving macroeconomic equilibrium is the basis of the economic policy of every state.

In macroeconomics, several models are used to determine macroeconomic equilibrium. The model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply is the basis for studying general equilibrium, fluctuations in the volume of national production and the general price level, the causes and consequences of their changes.

Macroeconomic equilibrium- this is a state of the national economy when the use of limited economic resources to create goods and services and their distribution among various members of society are balanced, i.e. there is an overall proportionality between resources and their use; factors of production and the results of their use; production and consumption; supply and demand; material and financial flows. Achieving complete equilibrium is an economic ideal, since in real life economic crises and incomplete or inefficient use of resources are inevitable. In economic theory, the macroeconomic ideal is the construction of general equilibrium models of the economic system.

Macroeconomic models are formalized (logical, graphical) descriptions of various economic phenomena and processes in order to identify functional relationships between them.

Despite the fact that in practice there are various violations of the requirements of such a model, knowledge of theoretical models of macroeconomic equilibrium allows us to determine specific factors of deviations of real processes from ideal ones and find ways to realize the most optimal state of the economy. In economic science, there are quite a lot of models of macroeconomic equilibrium, reflecting the views of different directions of economic thought on this problem:

• F. Quesnay's model of simple reproduction using the example of the French economy of the 18th century;
• classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium;
• model of general economic equilibrium under conditions of perfect competition by L. Walras;
• schemes of capitalist social reproduction (model of K. Marx);
• J. Keynes's short-term economic equilibrium model;
• V.V. Leontiev’s input-output model.

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply

When developing models of macroeconomic equilibrium, significant development, along with the construction of market-structured models (L. Walras model), received an approach that analyzes the conditions for ensuring equality between aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the national economy. To reveal the patterns of macroeconomic equilibrium, it is necessary, first of all, to formulate the concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, since all changes in the national economy are associated with their changes.

Aggregate demand. Aggregate demand refers to the sum of all individual demands for final goods and services offered on the product market. Aggregate demand consists of consumer spending (aggregate household demand), business investment spending, government spending, and net export spending.

Some elements of aggregate demand are relatively stable, such as consumer spending; others are more dynamic, particularly investment spending. The aggregate demand curve (Figure 12.1) shows the quantity of goods and services that consumers are willing to purchase at the appropriate price level. It provides options for combining the volume of production of goods and services and the general level of prices in the economy, in which the commodity and money markets are in equilibrium.

In macroeconomics, the level of aggregate demand as aggregated monetary demand for elements of GNP is influenced by two main factors: the amount of money in the economy (M) and the speed of its turnover (V). The influence of all other factors of demand for an individual product ultimately comes down to changes in these factors. The negative slope of the aggregate demand curve can be explained as follows: the higher the price level (P), the lower the real reserves of funds (M/P), and therefore, the lower the quantity of goods and services for which demand is presented (Q).

The inverse relationship between the amount of aggregate demand and the price level is also associated with the interest rate effect, the wealth effect and the effect of import purchases. Thus, when prices rise, the demand for money and the interest rate increase. An increase in the cost of credit leads to a decrease in consumer and investment spending and, accordingly, to a decrease in the volume of aggregate demand. Rising prices also reduce the real purchasing power of accumulated financial assets with a fixed value (bonds, fixed-term accounts) and encourage their owners to reduce expenses. An increase in prices within the country, while import prices remain unchanged, shifts part of the demand from domestic goods to imported goods and reduces exports, which also leads to a fall in aggregate demand in the economy.

With expanded reproduction, part of the surplus value of both divisions accumulates and acts as capital, which is used to purchase additional means of production and additional labor. Therefore, in order to implement expanded reproduction, part of the surplus value must be in natural form and consist of additional means of production to increase production and additional consumer goods for workers newly involved in production. Thus, with expanded reproduction:

I(v + m) > IIс;
I(c + v + m) > Ic + IIc;
II(c + v + m) > I(v + m) + II(v + m). (12.2)

This means that the net product of division I must be greater than the replacement fund for means of production in division II by the cost of the accumulated means of production necessary to expand production in both divisions.

The Marxist model of social reproduction shows the fundamental possibility of realizing a social product in a market economy. This model is an abstract theory of implementation, since if we take into account those factors from which Marx abstracted, then significant problems will arise in ensuring macroeconomic equilibrium.

Inter-industry balance model

Analysis of the structure of the national economy. The previously discussed models of macroeconomic equilibrium reveal the most essential conditions for balance in the national economy. At the same time, they are insufficient to solve a number of practical problems of the state's economic policy. One of these tasks to ensure sustainable growth of the national economy includes analyzing the structure of the country’s economy and the prospects for its development. The main changes in the structure of the national economy are associated primarily with scientific and technological progress, development and deepening of the social division of labor.

In the last third of the 20th century. In economically developed countries, the transition from the dominance of manufacturing industries in the economy to the rapid development of the service sector is becoming more and more clearly visible. As a result, by the end of the century, the share of this sector of the economy in the national product of these countries reached 55-65%. The main limiting economic resource in a post-industrial economy is knowledge and information.

Computer communications are replacing traditional forms of communication. Under these conditions, education and science are playing an increasingly significant role in the economic and social development of the country. The transformation of the latter into a direct productive force gives it a qualitatively new meaning. Simultaneously with the rapid development of the “knowledge industry” and the narrowing of the sphere of material production in developed countries, significant qualitative changes have occurred in the real sector of the economy. The share of industrial products and the share of people employed in this industry increased mainly due to a reduction in the share of agricultural products and the share of people employed in it.

At the same time, in industry, knowledge-intensive sectors received preferential development: mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, and chemical industries.

While the countries of Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and the United States began to actively develop post-industrial technologies based on the achievements of microelectronics, biotechnology and computer science, the economy of the former USSR continued to use (with rare exceptions) industrial and even pre-industrial technologies. Problems of resource conservation and increasing the share of science-intensive, high-tech products were resolved very slowly. Structural distortions have formed in the economy, one of which has been an increasing increase in the share of the military-industrial complex, including the scientific component, to the detriment of the civilian sector of the economy.

The growing importance of investments in human capital, science and modern conditions is reflected in a noticeable increase in budget funding for education, professional training, and R&D in developed countries. In accordance with the order of the President of the Russian Federation dated March 12, 2002 No. 94-rp, on March 20, a joint meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the Presidium of the State Council of the Russian Federation and the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for Science and High Technologies was held with the agenda “On the fundamentals of the policy of the Russian Federation in areas of science and technology development for the period up to 2010 and beyond.”

It was decided to allocate up to 4% of the budget to the development of science, and budget funding should be concentrated on strategic scientific and technical areas. For the development of science as a whole, one of the most important problems remains the determination of the most effective organizational forms of research activities of research institutes, 70% of which belong to the state.

In the modern economy, emphasis is placed on the development of innovative processes and high-tech production. This was preceded by the solution of structural problems of the Russian economy in previous decades.

If we evaluate the structural changes in the national economy that occurred in the 1990s from the point of view of increasing the efficiency of its functioning, then the achievements of the state’s macroeconomic policy in this area should be considered minimal. One of the structural distortions in the Russian economy at the beginning of the reforms was the low share (18%) of the service sector in the national product. By the end of the 1990s. the share of this sector of the economy was about 50% of GNP. Assessing the quality of the almost threefold growth of the service sector, it is necessary to note the following.

Firstly, the increase occurred against the backdrop of a significant drop in production in the real sector of the economy (the volume of industrial production decreased by more than half, agricultural production by 1.6 times). Along with this, there were negative changes in the structure of the basic branch of the real sector - industry. In the 1990s. There was a noticeable decrease in the share of the manufacturing industry and at the same time an increase in the share of its extractive sector.

Secondly, the growth in the share of the service sector was ensured primarily by the accelerated development of trade and financial services. The formation and development of the banking system should be considered a positive structural change, provided that commercial banks made profits primarily as a result of lending to the real sector, and not through participation in purely speculative transactions in the financial market. At the same time, the condition of such service sectors as science, the public education system and professional training has deteriorated significantly over the years of reform.

Thirdly, structural transformations in the national economy were accompanied by a significant increase in investment. In Russia, the rate of decline in capital investment and renewal of fixed capital exceeded the rate of decline in industrial production. By 1997, investment had dropped to 10-15% compared to the early 1990s. During the years of reforms, the volume of investment decreased by an average of 13% per year.

Inter-industry balance model. One of the macroeconomic equilibrium models that can be used to forecast economic growth, analyze the structure of the national economy, and the efficiency of its functioning is the intersectoral balance model. The development of the inter-industry balance in developed countries is associated with the name of Nobel Prize winner (1973) V. V. Leontiev and the model he proposed for analyzing inter-industry connections “input-output”.

The first inter-industry balance was published in the USA in 1936. The inter-industry balance (IB) model covers the entire reproduction process, including production, distribution, exchange and consumption, and reflects the value and natural form of GNP. The MOB model presents all the main characteristics of the macroeconomy: spheres and sectors, gross output, GNP, intermediate product, final social product, national income, all material flows in the national economy, volumes of import-export relations. This allows the use of the input-output balance model to analyze macroeconomic equilibrium. The name of V. I. Leontiev’s model “input - output” is associated with a dual consideration of individual industries: on the one hand, as exponents of aggregate demand and buyers of material goods and services offered by other industries (costs), and, on the other hand, as exponents of aggregate offers and sellers of material goods and services provided by themselves (output). This makes it possible to link the intersectoral balance model with the system of national accounts.

Leontief's input-output balance is a “chess table” of the structure of the gross national product, which reflects the main material and value flows of the national economy. Moreover, the number of these flows is not limited; everything is determined by the volume of information and the capabilities of computing resources. The Leontief table reflects costs in each industry and output for individual industries. These tables provide information on the consumption of intermediate products of each industry and its contribution to the creation of the final social product and national income. These tables show the sectoral structure of consumption of part of the intermediate product created in a particular industry, as well as its final product.

This allows us to determine the natural and value structure of the gross national product.

The intersectoral balance of production and distribution of the national product, broken down into several hundred industries, is compiled in many countries of the world, as well as in international organizations in accordance with the system of national accounts recommended by the UN. The advantages of the input-output balance model make it possible to use it both to analyze the current state of the national economy and to develop forecasts for its development.