I will try to justify my idea why big money will always win, or in other words, the rich will always earn, and the poor will always lose.

I think everyone has long known that horizontal channels (aka flat) are not created from scratch. And although in many books they write that since the price is flat, then the trader has nothing to do at this time, they say nothing significant is happening there and the market has simply come to a consensus.

Nothing like that, any flat is very important.

A horizontal channel (flat) is (1) a struggle between two large players (seller and buyer), or (2) accumulation of the required volume at the price of interest.

What happens in the flat?

I don’t remember in which of the articles, when analyzing the market, I mentioned the word “consolidation”. This word is very often used in trading, especially during flat periods. Literally, it means strengthening something, unification, rallying of individuals, groups, organizations to strengthen the struggle for common goals, the merger of two or more firms, companies.

Do you understand what I'm getting at?

Strengthening something is kind of like creating a support/resistance level.

Association, rallying of individuals is the same as entering the market at the best average price, and so on.

It turns out that it is precisely such consolidations (trading) that are very important for the trader; it is here that the fate of further movement is decided. All that remains for the trader is to understand who won.

In order to understand who won, you need to understand what is actually happening inside the flat?

The elementary law of the market operates on the market: “The more goods, the cheaper it is, the fewer goods, the more expensive it is.”

It is clear that such a comparison is not entirely appropriate for trading currencies or any other instrument, but I thought about it for a long time and came to the only opinion that you need to use your imagination a little and imagine that the thesis presented above is correct.

What is meant?

Everything seems to be clear with the goods. Suppose the situation occurs in a market where, for an unthinkable reason, there are 10 sellers selling potatoes. In other words, there is supply, but no demand.

To sell his product, the seller needs to lower the price to attract a buyer (this is clear to everyone). Suppose the tenth seller decided to become a monopolist and bought all the potatoes on the market at a cheap price.

Now there is a monopolist that owns all the potatoes. In this case, the tenth potato seller will increase the price, because demand has appeared in the market, but supply has decreased. And the longer there is demand, the higher the price will be. When demand decreases, the price will fall.

It turns out that while the tenth seller was buying goods, the price for the next purchase increased, as soon as he began to sell the purchased goods, the price of potatoes decreased.

Yeah... Now let's move on to the foreign exchange market (or any other, forex, futures, stocks, bonds).

It turns out that as soon as a trader makes an operation to buy a futures (for example, futures on euro 6E), the price of this futures increases. When a futures contract is sold, the price falls.

This is all theory, it’s time to determine the same thing on the chart.

Rice. 1. They buy the price from below, and sell the price from above.

Important!! This means that there are two players in the market. One needs to assemble a sell position and he constantly sells, the second needs to assemble a buy position and he constantly buys. Neither one nor the other open positions are closed.

That is, it turns out that at the bottom of the consolidation the price is bought in the hope that it will go even higher. As soon as the price reaches the upper limit, sellers become active and begin to sell futures, thereby lowering the price lower.

Let's move on to the most interesting part. How long will consolidation continue?

I'm sure you already know the answer.

It is until one of the players runs out of money. As soon as one of them runs out of money, having once again approached the consolidation border, there will be no one to stop the movement, which will entail an exit from the flat (consolidation) and further movement towards the winner.

Why does momentum occur when exiting a consolidation?

We've sorted out the consolidation (flat). But why, when exiting it, does the price begin a sharp movement (impulse)?

It's all about the feet.

This nuance will not cause problems for traders trading futures, as they know that when trading futures, there are no stop orders. All open trades are closed with reverse orders (this was mentioned in the article NinjaTrader | Trading with Dynamic SuperDOM).

We are all already experienced traders and understand that trading without stop losses is the path to loss.

Answer yourself this question: if you were selling looking at Figure 2, where would you put your stop loss?

Rice. 2. Where will your stop loss be?

I can 100% say that your stop will be set above the consolidation. And it is right.

Rice. 3. Setting stops.

This means that since you set a stop above consolidation, other traders will also set a stop there. The level is not important, it is important that your stop will be located somewhere above the current consolidation.

What happens when the market hits your stop? and you remember that the stop you set is nothing more than a Buy Stop order, that is, a buy order, and any purchase is a push up in the price.

Rice. 4. The market has followed in your footsteps.

So it turns out that as soon as the seller’s money runs out, the market begins to move towards his stops, having reached which, an impulse occurs and further upward movement occurs.

Conclusion

This article expresses solely my opinion on how things are on the market.

In the example offered in the article, we are talking about smart traders who act correctly: they buy at the bottom of the consolidation, and sell at the top. Beginners, in such cases, trade completely differently, doing everything the other way around, but this will be discussed in other articles.

Will this information help you in your trading? To be honest, I don’t know, but the main thing is understanding the market, the rest is a matter of profit.

Look through the history of any instruments, look at exactly how they were created and exits from consolidations, and I think many questions will disappear by themselves.

Good luck with your trading.

There is an opinion that the daily turnover of the Forex market reaches several trillions of dollars and if this is so, then one might think that for a large player there should be no problems with gaining a huge position within one working day, because the liquidity of the Forex market allows it. However, if you look at the chart of any instrument, you will notice that this is far from the case. Of course, if an ordinary ordinary trader wants to gain a position, then he can do this in the first second by throwing an order into the market, since his working position is too small in relation to the money of a large player, it’s like a drop in the ocean.

This market is too thin for instantly gaining a large position, even despite such a large daily turnover, and if a large player wants to gain a large volume at a certain price, he will not succeed, since the price will simply fly into space from such purchases, due to that the demand for purchase significantly exceeds supply. It turns out that a major player, by his action, bought the currency at the current price and no one else sells to him at this price, and therefore the price goes higher to those sellers who are ready to sell to him at a high price, and in such situations the price can go far up, provided that there is abnormal demand.

From a logical point of view, it is completely unprofitable for a large player to immediately gain a position, since perhaps he wants to gain a position at 1.25 and take profit at 1.29, and if he throws a deal into the market, then the price will immediately fly from 1.25 to 1.29 and then about whom will he close with such a huge position? There will be no one to worry about and the price will also quickly fall down and then the major player will have a significant minus.

So how can you see on the chart how a major player is gaining a position? Quite simply, its entire set takes place at the most boring stage of the market, namely sideways.

The biggest losses for ordinary traders occur in the sideways, when they expect a trend movement, and the price flies up and down, thereby knocking down stop losses for both buyers and sellers, and thanks to this action, a major player gains his volume much more easily. The second picture shows that a major player gained a position for almost a whole year and as soon as he gained it, he immediately let the price go up.

I wrote a strategy using this method

Of course, you can find a sideways trend on any timeframe, but in my opinion, it is not particularly worth looking for a set of positions on a smaller timeframe than the 4-hour one, since the lower the timeframe, the less significant the situation. More or less significant gains occur either on a 4-hour or daily interval, and if you can clearly see that at this stage of the market a position is gaining momentum, then most likely it will end soon, since the major player does not need extra freeloaders.

Sometimes, for various reasons, you may miss the price exit and then it is unknown how long the price will go into a targeted movement and the only thing that can help you is a previous trade by a major player. If the price has been trading for quite a long time, then most likely this price exit will continue for several more days and it is worth buying/selling regardless of how high or low the price fell in previous days without your participation.

Here's the question.

For my readers I would like to say right away. Despite the fact that this topic is very popular today, I deliberately did not make a separate video. There will be too much criticism directed at me, because... Each trader has his own vision, there are even people who claim that dolls use 200 EMA. Besides, I don’t really believe in it. I don’t believe that there is such a big player who knows for sure that now he will gain a position, after a while he will slow down the market, and after some time he will throw off his position.

Let's define it right away. A major player is a market participant who, through various manipulations, can control the market, move it and bring it to certain areas. A major player can stop the price, slow it down, etc.

Now let's look at the question piece by piece.

Why does a major player place limit orders?

Here, from my point of view, everything is simple. Suppose we have a certain movement in which, in our opinion. A major player gained his position. Fine. What's next? Then he moves the price up. After which a rollback occurs. The deeper the pullback occurs, the more traders realize that the trend has changed. More traders begin to enter a short position. On the one hand, the crowd puts in their limit orders, which restrain the price from moving upward, on the other hand, they enter market orders to the side, thereby moving the market. The market becomes obvious and can only be interpreted in one direction. In this case, the crowd begins to take money from the big player, which, by the way, Alexander Mikhailovich Gerchik said that a big player can be dismantled by the crowd if it unites against him.

Based on what has been said, it turns out that a large player needs to stop the market in time, until the pressure of the crowd becomes critical. Otherwise, he simply won’t have enough funds to hold back the crowd and the major player will suffer a loss.

According to trading watchdogs, large players may be making losses. However, they exit without using stop orders. Think for yourself. If a major player exits the long position with a stop, then in this case, each subsequent transaction will lower the price. Due to the fact that the position of a major player is large, there is a risk of receiving a stop size of the entire deposit.

When critical (for a large player) crowd pressure occurs, and the crowd begins to interpret the market in one direction... A large player is forced to create a market stop by using limit orders that will hold the price, not letting it go down.

Until the crowd buys out these limit orders, this area - the market will not go down. This can be compared to a hammer and a wall. Think of the market as a hammer and limit orders as a wall. If you hit a wall with a hammer, the hammer bounces off the wall. However, sooner or later, if you hit the wall regularly, cracks will appear on the wall and it will collapse. The same thing happens in the market, with one exception. A major player is obliged to prevent the wall from collapsing - or he will receive a loss, which he, of course, does not want.

If the limit traders take it apart, the price will go down. If they don’t figure it out, the price will go up or be in a flat.

When a major player protects his positions with limit orders.

By the way, the tower model embodies this philosophy. Here we see a market stop, accumulation, and the use of initiative, which is why the market goes out of its range.

What usually happens?

How can you spot a big player? How to enter the market together with a major player?

Of course, it is difficult to judge without becoming a doll. Essentially, we are blind kittens exploring the world. Traders simply guess at the tea leaves and each has their own understanding of the cool, the understanding of the major player and what is happening. However, there are formations from which one can understand what is happening. In this case, I am looking at the Russian market, on Forex, on other Western assets, although a similar situation occurs, but it is more hidden.

There is an opinion that a major player works only in a flat. This opinion, unfortunately, is usually not justified, because There are practically no ideal formations by which we can confidently say that there are dolls there. However, you can meet them, but again, traders try to mystify it to the point of impossibility.

More often than not, a different picture occurs.

Stopping the market on a trend movement by a major player.

Very often you can observe the following picture. We have a long trend movement, everyone understands that they need to buy, everyone is doing it. The market is slowly growing and reaching a large, obvious level. This is a major historical level that is important for this asset. The market continues to move, having reached a level, suddenly large candles with abnormal spikes and high volume appear. However, the market does not react to this and continues to move as if nothing was happening. After some time, the candle appears again, again with a large volume, again half painted over. Again nothing happens. After N time, the market begins to slow down, float for a while and then reverses.

If we switch to cluster analysis or market profile analysis, we will see that volume appears at the very tails of these candles, which tells us about the execution of limit orders. The question is, who places these large limit orders? After all, it’s clear that the one who does this has a lot of money. If so, it can stop the market. Moreover, if he does this, then he has information about possible events, does that mean he is a major player? Unfortunately, we cannot know for sure.

The same section of the market, but in a “market profile”

Please note that large volumes were formed in the tails of the candles.

The subsequent movement was sharp and powerful. Please note that a little further on a similar picture began to appear. This is normal, because the big man is dumping some of his positions. In the following articles and videos I will tell you this

The market rarely stops at a hairpin. To do this, there must be either a large fundamental level (in terms of importance for the asset) or news. More often there is a market stop, accumulation and reversal. As you all probably know, there are 2 phases in the market - accumulation and distribution. This is why the market rarely stops at a hairpin.

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of technical analysis and price action, we need to deal with one extremely common misconception that has been spammed all over the Internet (and which is utter nonsense).

We are talking about the opinion that certain large players (in slang they are sometimes called “dolls” - from the word “puppeteer”) are manipulating the world currency market in such a way as to rake in all the money for themselves. And therefore, we - retail traders - have no chance against them. They are smart and take all the money from us stupid people.

It looks like this:

• the price has broken through resistance - this is a major player;
• didn’t break through - again a big player;
• false breakout - again;
• I saw how long the shadow of the candle was - and again he;
• he knows and can do everything, but we can do nothing.

The mysterious “big player”, whom no one has ever seen, continues to “disturb” many traders in the Forex market. And many paid trading schools, using this misconception, intimidate traders: “You have no chance! Only we will help you discover these big players and teach you how to fight them!”

Funny? Certainly. This is how traders get caught in the trap of religious thinking.

In primitive times, when lightning raged behind the walls of caves and frightened the hairy population there, it was not difficult to come to the global idea of ​​​​a menacing invisible bearded guy on a cloud. Which, thus, “punishes” bad guys with clubs for some kind of misconduct.

This concept became extremely convenient and has since been used as an effective tool for manipulation and strengthening personal power. If you don't listen to the tribe leader, the invisible bearded guy on the cloud will punish you for it. The doll controls everything. So listen to the leader. Fear ruled and controls the masses.

Shamans appeared who exploited this same misconception. They became even “closer” to the invisible bearded man, a couple of steps, and even “interpreted” his will, which was known, naturally, only to them. It is always very profitable to exploit other people's misconceptions. Religiosity is an excellent tool for monetizing fears and ignorance.

Major players in the Forex market

It’s exactly the same story with trading. The interbank foreign exchange market Forex, by its nature, is an OTC market. What does it mean? It is not traded on exchanges and does not have central clearing. In other words, accurate data on trading volumes and market participants does not exist at all. The foreign exchange market is decentralized and over-the-counter.

Currencies are traded through hundreds of systems, through “black boxes”, also known as dark pools, through various ECNs like EBS, through the dealing platforms of Reuters and Bloomberg. There is basically no exact data. There are only approximate, very general volumes, which is provided by the only source in the world: . Which estimates approximately the general temperature in the currency hospital.

In other words, any market fluctuation can be attracted to the actions of a “big player” - it still cannot be verified and confirmed with reliable data. After all, they simply don’t exist.

Axiom: for the foreign exchange market there is generally no accurate data on volumes.

What do many teachers and schools do? They frighten you with complexity and fairy tales about an insidious bearded guy on a currency cloud. How can you not use such fear to your advantage? They use it.

At the same time, the main participants in the Forex market are well known. This:

• central banks of the world's leading countries;
• largest investment banks;
• hedge funds;
• investment companies;
• retail traders.

Each major market participant has, as you understand, reporting on its profits and losses. While the Central Bank intervenes to strengthen the exchange rate of national currencies, the main participants in the interbank market are commercial banks and funds.

These are the 10 largest commercial participants in the foreign exchange market. These are our big players, they are also “dolls”. In percentage - their share in the foreign exchange market.

According to naive Pinocchio, it is these large players who “own” the market, data on all open positions, have secret information that is inaccessible to others and use it to their advantage, manipulating the market the way they want.

Logical? Logical. We see a large share of the market, they clearly control everything here. What cunning bearded guys!

Achievements of major players in the foreign exchange market

If big manipulators are running a trillion-dollar market, they should be making staggering, incredible profits, right? Then these are natural financial vacuum cleaners, raking in liquidity from everyone, taking advantage of their exceptional position.

Let's look at their successes and how to spot a big forex player. Number 9 on the list, Goldman Sachs, lost more than $1 billion on the Forex market.

Oh, how is this? An important question right away:

How could a major player who “manipulates the market” lose so much money on it?

While you're thinking about this, let's take a look at other "manipulators." According to statistics, since 2008, leading banks (the very top 10 of the Forex market) have been in a deep crisis and have already laid off more than half a million staff. The global banking system cannot recover from the crisis and is firing everyone in an effort to cut costs.

Not bad for manipulators who “own” a market with a turnover of 5.3 trillion dollars a day, right? Where are their excess incomes? Where is the money they earned, Zin, what did they snatch from their competitors?

In second place in the top 10 currency traders is the almighty Deutsche Bank. Along with Citi, it is a giant of the Forex market. Explain how this giant managed to demonstrate a net annual loss of 6.8 billion euros in 2015?

In third place we have Barclays Bank, which plans to lay off 7,000 of its 20,500 staff within three years. Another champion that “manipulates the market”, brilliant!

By the way, I have a question. Do all the banks from the top 10 manage unhappy traders and knock down their stops in MetaTrader spontaneously or in turn? They are competitors, actually, from different countries. What does it look like for them? They gathered in the bathhouse, took a steam bath, and said: “Today I’ll take a tenner from Vasya, tomorrow you’ll take a fiver from Petya.” Or how?

They are clearly struggling with the squeeze; they don’t rely on almighty manipulators - because statistics show that everyone is suffering colossal losses. Then who? Funds? Masonic investment companies from Venus, which are richer than the main banks of the world?

They all have public reporting and, you know what, those who became fabulously rich are not visible either. Well, where is he, King Midas of the foreign exchange market, who turns everything into gold, manipulating prices as he pleases, and defrauding the leading banks of the planet?

As you can see, the top 10 hedge funds working with the foreign exchange market had a total capital of less than $6 billion at the end of 2015. Tears for the foreign exchange market with a daily turnover of several trillion.

That's why. When people tell you lies about “powerful players in the Forex market,” ask:

1. The name of this powerful bearded guy on the cloud.
2. A link to the annual financial statements, where you can see his stunning success in defrauding other market participants.

This will be enough to remove the noodles from your ears. By the way, bank traders really tried to manipulate... not currencies at all, but specific things, like the LIBOR rate. The results are billions of dollars in fines to banks, criminal cases and mass layoffs.

Why was this fairy tale invented?

“Big powerful guys” are using this idea to trap newcomers in order to take control of their minds and wallets through fear. If you are a small, insignificant retail trader, and there is such a gigantic, all-powerful machine against you, your only chance is to gain the protection and confidence that they promise you. Paid and expensive.

In such schools, the poor people are taught how to find “the actions of large players” (this is in the OTC market, where there is no data on volumes at all), how to “deceive” them (generally a joke) and lay other eggs filled with nonsense.

Everyone is equal before the market

But this is a sober look at things. In 1995, it took the efforts of... 5 central banks of the world to reverse the dollar exchange rate. Five countries barely turned the dollar around. Publicly and openly - everyone knew that the Central Banks were fighting the market, His Majesty the Market, in order to strengthen the dollar based on their economic interests. These interventions were carried out openly and controlled, and were monitored by financiers around the world.

Banks and funds have more financial opportunities than a simple trader, but:

• Do they have a monopoly on the future?
• Can they be guaranteed to squeeze profits out of the market?
• Can they direct the market wherever they want?

Their reporting speaks for itself. Can not.

Banks, funds, investment firms and retail traders are all battling the market. Some have more opportunities, some have less. But no one has a monopoly. Everyone is trying to squeeze their little bit of luck out of the market. And this can be done by creating your own individual understanding, a set of rules that allow you to regularly take profits from the market.

But faith, religiosity, conviction of existence:

• all-powerful players who are always right;
• 100% strategies;
• guaranteed trading schools;
• profitable indicators.

It will only lead to what it has always led to - the trader leaves the market with a hole in his pocket. A completely natural and logical result for those who do not like to think with their own heads.

It's funny that despite this obvious and publicly available data, religious thinking has become so entrenched in the minds of many traders that they are not ready to give up their illusions.

Why this is so is quite clear. It is extremely convenient to explain your failures and failures by some omnipotent manipulator who ruins everyone’s life and drives the euro/dollar so that it breaks the levels of spread betting players in Metatrader. The villain is grinning insidiously at this, I’m sure. Amusing self-deception, however, after a bad day it’s better to take a sip of moonshine - even that will be more useful than from ridiculous inventions.

You will definitely meet such citizens on your trading path; someone always interferes with them. If you want to have fun, ask them 2 specific questions given earlier and enjoy the reaction.

What about the puppet masters of the cryptocurrency and stock markets?

Here the story is similar, but with some nuances.

Forex - over-the-counter market, also known as the OTC market. There is no one place where these trades take place, so the mythical puppeteer simply has no place to turn around.

But on exchange The situation in markets is somewhat different. When trading is carried out centrally - through one exchange, be it the NYSE for the stock market or Coinbase for the cryptocurrency market - so in the centralized market, of course, there are large players who can influence intra-exchange quotes. In exchange markets, volumes and other tools are also useful, which are generally not relevant for Forex. For the latter, volumes are completely useless.

The foreign exchange market, I repeat once again, is over-the-counter. This needs to be sorted out right away. It is not traded on exchanges. That is why no puppet masters represented by banks decide anything here and do not influence the quotes of EUR/USD or any other currency pair as they please.

Therefore, you don’t have to worry. No banks hinder your stops in MetaTrader. Oh, how they would like it! Anyone who received the key to the foreign exchange market, with their capabilities, would hit a multi-billion dollar jackpot. But the banks are only losing these billions, because they are the same market participant - simply institutional - like us, small retail losers.

Our chances are equal. This is why we love trading - the opportunity to participate in the same league as the big players. For the chance to ride the social elevator, which is available to everyone.

• Back:
• Forward:

And if essentially..., without theories, then point by point:
You write:

"The directional movement of the market (shorts) news release, we emphasize an important point (negative news)."

Question: how interesting do you determine the nature of the news, that is, is it negative or positive? This is a task for analysts to interpret something there, but it is only clear that it is after the fact.

“assuming that the big players know in advance what news will come out and are already short”

Question: Who are these big players? Do you seriously believe that these large players are already “short” in anticipation of this bad news?
And if, as you argue, they supposedly know about this bad news, then excuse me, this is already a nonsense insider, and for this you can be completely punished.
The wealth-lab node has such a feature from the fundamentals provider for shares short and shares interest. Build graphs for fun and see how this compares with real market volumes. And besides, if by “big players” we mean the same thing, then it’s doubly unclear how they can sit in shorts, well, they don’t play these games.

“And therefore the news is bad, the crowd is going short.”

Well, I already spoke about the “crowd” of short sellers. And besides, who needs these “shorts without a smoke break” from the depot for 100 bucks
Has it ever occurred to you that these are not shorts at all, but covering positions? Are you familiar with the concept of synergetics?

Very useful information, especially in terms of "most likely". If you say this, then please take the trouble to assess the likelihood of such a scenario. And for some reason it seems to me that when calculating the latter, your enthusiasm will significantly decrease.

It’s even scary to comment further. Your supposed "big man" is waiting for a "crowd of short sellers" to "get an even better position at a better price"....
So you see how, clinging to the monitor, a “big guy” with a nasty grin on his distorted lips, choking with lust, covers a model of an order of joyfully short-shorting representatives of the crowd.... Brrr... A terrible picture. Sorry for the banter.

It didn’t occur to you that your so-called “big guy” is a “big guy” because he operates with slightly different amounts, with a slightly different investment horizon, and therefore (and not only because) he doesn’t play these supposed games of yours. And you are also obviously familiar with the concept of hedging positions, and the basics of how hedges and other funds work. If you are unfamiliar, then ask at your leisure...

"And the more people fall for this scam..."

Sorry, but this very significantly relates to this very article.