Why Richard Thaler received the Nobel Prize in Economics. New behavioral economics Richard Thaler new

Richard Thaler

New behavioral economics. Why people break the rules of traditional economics and how to make money from it

Dedicated to:

Victor Fuchs, who gave me a year to think about it, and Eric Wanner and the Russell Sage Foundation, who supported the crazy idea.

Colin Camerer and George Loewenstein, pioneers of irrational behavior.

The basis of political economy and, in general, any of the social sciences is, undoubtedly, psychology. Perhaps the day will come when we will be able to derive the laws of social science from the principles of psychology.

WILFREDO PARETO, 1906

Richard H. Thaler

MISBEHAVING. THE MAKING OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

* * *

Richard Thaler(b. 1945) - one of the leading modern economists, known for his joint work with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman; author of the “nudge theory” (“guided choice”). Advisor to Barack Obama.

Economic theory is outdated. “Rational man” is too limited a model to explain our decisions and actions. This book rethinks everything you know about human behavior and helps you get the most out of it.

How does the magical effect of “free” offers, which are widely used by advertisers, work?

How to plan the initial choice of the consumer, on which all subsequent ones will then depend.

Irrationality is not random or meaningless - on the contrary, it is quite systematic and predictable. How to find patterns?

You will learn to predict the behavior of employees and clients, plan resources correctly and create those products and offers that will hit the bull's eye and cause a stir.

“The true genius who pioneered behavioral economics is also a natural storyteller with an incomparable sense of humor. All these talents are reflected in the book.”

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize laureate in economics, bestselling author of Thinking Fast, Solving Slow

“One of the most important insights in modern economics. If I were lucky enough to be stuck in an elevator with any intellectual, I would undoubtedly choose Richard Thaler."

Preface

Before we begin, I want to tell two stories - about my friend Daniel Kahneman and about my mentor Amos Tversky. These stories give an idea of what to expect from this book.

Please Amos

Even those of us who can't remember where we last put our keys have unforgettable moments in our lives. These can be socially significant events. If you and I are about the same age, such an event could be the assassination of John F. Kennedy (at that time I was a freshman in college, the news found me on the basketball court in the gym). For anyone old enough to read this book, another similar event would be the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, when I just got out of bed and listened to National Public Radio, trying to process what had happened.

The news of a dying friend is always shocking, but Amos Tversky was not the kind of man to die at the age of fifty-nine. Amos, whose work and performances were always precise and impeccable, whose desk contained nothing but a notepad and pencil, was not just dying.

Amos kept his illness a secret while he could still go to work. Until recently, only a few people were in the know, including two of my close friends. We were not allowed to tell anyone except our wives, so for five months we took turns comforting each other while we were forced to keep this tragic fact to ourselves.

Amos did not want his illness to become known to the public, because in his last days he did not want to play the role of a dying man. I had to finish the job. He and Danny decided to publish a book: a collection of articles, by themselves and others, in the field of psychology that they had pioneered - the study of judgment and decision making. They called the book Rational Choice, Values and Frames.

Mostly, Amos wanted to do what he loved: work, spend time with his family, watch basketball. In those days, Amos discouraged condolence visits, but "work" visits were allowed, so I went to see him about six weeks before his death, on the weak pretext of discussing the final draft of our joint paper. We spent some time working and then watched the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs.

Amos showed wisdom in everything he did in his life, and this extended to his illness. After consulting with specialists at Stanford about his prospects, he decided that spending the last months of his life on a useless treatment that would only make him feel worse but only add a few more weeks was not worth it. He managed to maintain a sharp mind. He explained to his oncologist that cancer is not a zero-sum game: “What harms my tumor does not necessarily benefit me.” One day on the phone I asked how he was feeling, and he said, “You know, it’s funny, but when you just have the flu, you think you’re dying, but when you actually die, you feel pretty good.”

Amos died in June and was buried in Palo Alto, California, where he lived with his family. Amos's son Owen gave a short speech at the memorial service, reading a note that Amos wrote to him a few days before his death:

Over the past few days, I've noticed that we tell each other funny, funny stories so that they will be remembered, at least for a while. It seems to be a long-standing Jewish tradition to pass on history and wisdom from one generation to the next, not through lectures and textbooks, but through anecdotes, funny stories and on-topic jokes.

After the funeral, everyone gathered at the Twersky family home for a traditional shiva. It was Sunday afternoon. At one point, several of us quietly moved to the TV to watch the end of the NBA playoffs. We were a little embarrassed, but Amos’ son, Tal, calmed the situation: “If Amos had been here, he would have offered to record the funeral and watch the game at that time.”

From the first day I met Amos in 1977, I consistently used the same method to evaluate every article I wrote: “Would Amos like this?” My friend Eric Johnson, discussed below, can confirm that one of our joint papers could not be published because of this for three years after it had already been accepted by the journal. The editor, reviewers, and Eric were all happy with the result, but Amos saw one flaw and I wanted to fix it. I fiddled with this article while poor Eric was forced to apply for a new position without this article on his resume. Fortunately, he had written many other works by then, so this delay did not cost him a new job, but Amos was satisfied with the changes made.

When I began writing the book, I took seriously what Amos said in the note that his son Owen read at the time, because this is not the kind of book that economics professors usually write. This is not a scientific treatise or a scientific polemic. Of course, on these pages I will refer to research results, but besides this you will find stories, funny (I hope) stories and even funny incidents here.

Danny talks about my virtues

One day in 2001, I was visiting Danny Kahneman in Berkeley. We sat in the living room, chatting about this and that. Suddenly Danny remembered that he had arranged a telephone interview with Roger Lowenstein, a reporter who was writing an article for The New York Times Magazine about my work. Roger, being, among other things, the author of the famous book When Geniuses Fail, naturally wanted to talk about me with my old friend Danny. I found myself in a quandary. Should I leave the room or stay and listen? “Stay,” Danny said, “it might even be fun.”

Richard Thaler's book "The New Behavioral Economics" will be useful for those traders who want to delve into the psychological aspects and fundamentals of economics. They say that price takes everything into account, but the correct interpretation of many economic events from the point of view of the human factor helps to make the right decisions without succumbing to market provocations.

In other words, the book by an American professor specializing in behavioral economics helps to understand how economic events influence people's behavior, and why people behave differently under apparently similar conditions.

Richard Thaler was nominated for the Nobel Prize in 2017 for his research in economics as it relates to human psychology in his book The New Behavioral Economics. Today, despite his advanced age (born in 1945), he actively teaches at the University of Chicago. The American professor became widely known thanks to his theory of nudges in decision making. In other words, it is called guided choice theory.

In his book The New Behavioral Economics, Thaler notes that man is generally extremely rational in his behavior as far as all economic aspects are concerned. In any case, he strives to earn more with minimal labor or material investments. But how can one attach human feelings and emotions to this rational desire to increase one’s income? Richard Thaler managed to build a real bridge connecting two seemingly completely different sciences: sociology (social psychology) and economics. Thaler's theory became known as behavioral economics.

Richard Thaler has long collaborated with famous scientists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who formulated the so-called “prospect theory”, with which Thaler’s new behavioral economics is closely related. The point is that people's choices are often based more on emotions than on actual facts. Therefore, many make completely opposite decisions under the same circumstances. Both scientists are confident that a person’s choice when making decisions can be selectively influenced, and without distorting the initial facts at all. To do this, it is enough just to slightly change the presentation of these facts.

Richard Thaler's book “The New Behavioral Economics” helps to take a fresh look not only at trading, but also at our entire lives, as a frequent series of illogical and incorrect decisions and teaches us not to give in to emotions at turning points.

Name: New behavioral economics. Why do people break the rules of traditional economics and how to make money from it?

Year: 2015.

Language: Russian.

Format: FB2, EPUB.

Dedicated to:

Victor Fuchs, who gave me a year to think about it, and Eric Wanner and the Russell Sage Foundation, who supported the crazy idea.

Colin Camerer and George Loewenstein, pioneers of irrational behavior.

The basis of political economy and, in general, any of the social sciences is, undoubtedly, psychology. Perhaps the day will come when we will be able to derive the laws of social science from the principles of psychology.

WILFREDO PARETO, 1906

Richard H. Thaler

MISBEHAVING. THE MAKING OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

* * *

How does the magical effect of “free” offers, which are widely used by advertisers, work?

How to plan the initial choice of the consumer, on which all subsequent ones will then depend.

Irrationality is not random or meaningless - on the contrary, it is quite systematic and predictable. How to find patterns?

You will learn to predict the behavior of employees and clients, plan resources correctly and create those products and offers that will hit the bull's eye and cause a stir.

“The true genius who pioneered behavioral economics is also a natural storyteller with an incomparable sense of humor. All these talents are reflected in the book.”

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize laureate in economics, bestselling author of Thinking Fast, Solving Slow

“One of the most important insights in modern economics. If I were lucky enough to be stuck in an elevator with any intellectual, I would undoubtedly choose Richard Thaler."

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Preface

Before we begin, I want to tell two stories - about my friend Daniel Kahneman and about my mentor Amos Tversky. These stories give an idea of what to expect from this book.

Please Amos

Over the past few days, I've noticed that we tell each other funny, funny stories so that they will be remembered, at least for a while. It seems to be a long-standing Jewish tradition to pass on history and wisdom from one generation to the next, not through lectures and textbooks, but through anecdotes, funny stories and on-topic jokes.

Thaler and his followers showed that people do not always behave as standard theory dictates. For example, contrary to the classical idea of economically rational agents, a real person has different attitudes towards the same sums of money received from different sources (salary, investment income, lottery winnings, etc.), and often distributes his expenses depending on sources of income. Regular income is more often used to purchase necessities, while irregular income is more often used for entertainment and luxury goods. It follows that two people with exactly the same income but different sources will spend and save money differently—behavioral economics can predict how. Accordingly, economists (and other interested parties) can extract additional predictive knowledge from information about the structure of income, not just its size.

Thaler called this “mental accounting.” This theory shows that when allocating their personal budgets, people make decisions that are not at all rational: for example, they spend money on a credit card and at the same time maintain some savings reserve, although it would be more logical for Homo economicus to use the saved funds to pay off debt. At sales, people often buy things that they don’t use later, etc.

Push to the right decisions

A key feature of behavioral economics is its desire, based on its knowledge of people, to adjust policy decisions in various areas - from education and health care to public safety and financial products for the population. In 2008, Thaler co-authored Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness with Harvard Law School's Cass Sunstein, which became an economic bestseller. Thaler and his book so influenced then British Prime Minister David Cameron that in 2010 he created a task force designed to nudge people to make the best decisions for themselves and society.

Thaler and Sunstein called their concept of coercion (“nudging”) to make good choices a seemingly paradoxical term: “libertarian paternalism.” If policy makers want to get citizens to make the economic decision they want without limiting their freedom of choice, they need to be nudged in the right direction through the default option. For example, in order to stimulate pension savings, it is better to transfer workers to such a system automatically, and those who do not agree should refuse in an express way. If you give people an active choice between two options, they will most likely choose the “keep as is” option, not because it is better, but because people have a “cognitive bias” in favor of maintaining the status quo.

Thaler is a scientific consultant for ideas42, an American non-profit organization whose mission is to “apply behavioral insights to the toughest social problems.”

Richard Thaler became a regular candidate for the Nobel Prize in Economics just a few years ago. But when he began his scientific career, he was perceived by the academic community as an outsider and a fringe, recalls his colleague and co-author Cass Sunstein. When Thaler was given a position at the University of Chicago, 1990 Nobel laureate in economics Merton Miller said of him: “Every generation must go through its own mistakes.” And the famous American judge, lawyer and economist Richard Posner said to his face: “You are absolutely unscientific!”

In May 2016, already an established economist, Thaler stressed: “It is time to stop treating behavioral economics as a scientific revolution - it is simply a return to the open-minded, intuitive discipline that was invented by Adam Smith and complemented by powerful statistical tools and data sets.” .

Scientists who work at the intersection of psychology and economics are not given the Nobel Prize very often, notes Vladimir Spiridonov, head of the Laboratory of Cognitive Research at RANEPA. Before this, there were two cases when psychologists were awarded prizes in economics, he recalls. In 1978, it was awarded to Herbert Simon for his studies of economic decision-making by entrepreneurs - he was the first to describe a company not as a structure focused only on maximizing profits, but also as “an adaptive system of physical, personal and social components that are united by a network of relationships and the willingness of its members cooperate and strive to achieve a common goal.” Another example of the Nobel Prize at the intersection of psychology and economics is the award to Daniel Kahneman in 2002, Spiridonov points out. Kahneman won the prize for integrating ideas from psychological research into economics, “especially with regard to human judgment and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty,” the Nobel committee explained. Kahneman concluded that human decisions “may systematically deviate from those predicted by standard economic theory.” At the same time, the prize was received by Vernon Smith, “who stood on alternative positions” and insisted that the economy works only according to economic laws, Spiridonov notes.

In his theories, Thaler explains decision-making not at the macroeconomic level or at the level of large industries or enterprises, Spiridonov says. It concerns microeconomics up to family budget planning. “For example, Thaler showed that mental accounting (accounting for planning your own money) is structured like a real one. There is a division into separate expense items that do not intersect, and if they do intersect, they lead to fatal errors. If one item is completely spent, a person does not easily transfer money from one item to another, but considers that it is “different” money,” Spiridonov points out.

What's wrong in Russia?

“Thaler, since the author is not very simple, as far as I know, was translated [in Russia] only once,” says Spiridonov. Among Russian experts interested in the topic of behavioral economics, either “absolute pop” or very complex economic models that have little to do with psychology are popular, he adds. “In this sense, Thaler, on the one hand, is a very serious author and in places even very systematized, and on the other hand, crystal clear and very understandable, intelligible when he tries to explain to non-economists this strange matter that lies between psychology and economics,” - Spiridonov argues. In 2017, Thaler’s book was published for the first time in Russian - “New Behavioral Economics. Why people break the rules of traditional economics and how to make money from it.”

In Russia, psychological and economic theories are popularized quite actively, says Alexey Belyanin, head of the Laboratory of Experimental and Behavioral Economics at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), and now it is very fashionable to invest in yourself. But “much less is being done” than it could be, he adds: Thaler’s theories are for those who want to improve their already good situation, and in Russia the standard of living is quite low, people are not ready to think about such things. Another reason for the lack of demand for behavioral theories, according to Belyanin, is the immaturity of society: citizens are still prone to irrational behavior (excessive spending instead of saving for retirement, for example).

In early October, Clarivate Analytics (formerly the research and intellectual property division of Thomson Reuters) named possible Nobel Prize winners in all fields, including economics. This year's nominees were Colin Camerer and George Lowensteen (“for their pioneering research in behavioral economics and neuroeconomics”), Robert Hall (“for their analysis of labor productivity and research into recession and unemployment”), as well as Michael Jensen, Stuart Myers and Raghuram Rajan (“for his study of decision-making processes in corporate finance”).

The Nobel Prize in Economics, unlike the other five Nobel Prizes (medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace prize), was not created by Alfred Nobel himself in 1901. The prize has been awarded since 1969, its founder is the Bank of Sweden. 78 scientists became laureates of the prize. Most of the laureates are scientists from the United States (and most of them worked at the University of Chicago). Russian scientists have received the prize only once - in 1975, it was awarded to the Soviet economist Leonid Kantorovich “for his contribution to the theory of optimal resource allocation.” From Russia were Simon Kuznets (1971 prize for “an empirically based interpretation of economic growth”) and Vasily Leontiev (1973 prize “for the development of the input-output method and its application to important economic problems”). At the time of the award, both scientists lived and worked in the United States.

In 2016, the prize was awarded to researchers Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström (both working in the USA, at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, respectively) with the wording “for their contribution to contract theory.”

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Description of the book

The author of the book, professor from Chicago Richard Thaler, one of the advisers to US President Barack Obama, thoroughly studied the emotions that drive the buyer and the difficulties he faces when making a purchase decision, choosing a mortgage or a pension fund. In his new book, Thaler shares the results of the study and continues the conversation he once started about the psychology of influence.

Last impression of the book

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20-01-2019, 19:28

Lord, how can we understand Your ways? Yes, you can speculate: is it necessary? In the sense of “does it need to be understood?”, it’s possible. But why? But intellectual speculation is just that: it is possible to spin an “infinity spiral,” as the singer Zemfira sings: you can do an infinite number of iterations with this very “possible.”

But unlike fractal geometry, sophistical exercises will lead to absolutely nothing. Except for medieval scholasticism. Do we need it? Why all this nonsense with speculation? Yes to the book, of course! "Behavioral Economics". Behavioral economics. Yoly-paly - two supposed sciences! Psychology and Economics. Two "sciences". About and within the framework of which it is written, scribbled on, typed on the keyboard - a trillion gigs of information. And that's all science! Or so – “science”! With the appropriate surroundings in the form of a Nobel lecture, where humanity appears in the faces of members of the Royal Swedish Academy as students. Heeded by "gurus". Tell me, people, how to arrange it this way, huh? You write something according to some “scientific” criteria, and it’s a Nobel! Damn, great! Why is that? Or first, let’s talk about whether all this is fair? No, let's first - why? Why are there so many Nobels in economics? At the intersection of psychology and economics? Those spheres of human thought that do not have scientific criteria. A priori unable to give at least some forecast for the future. And, therefore, well, they in no way fall under the definition of not only exact sciences, but sciences in general? And further. It is impossible to ignore the fact that the overwhelming number of Nobel laureates in economics are Americans. Why is that? I am sure that everything is in strict accordance with the scientific forecasts and justifications of another “American” - the German Jew Karl Marx. “American”—let’s not be fooled—is a Jew. And here is one fundamental proposal! I repeat – this is a fundamental proposal. I will send a proposal to the Nobel Committee by the end of October. In the “Justification” section it will be written: for centuries of effective work in all sectors of human activity. Based on the totality of merit, so to speak. As is customary in Hollywood: “for contribution.” No, not into a savings book - into human history. So, what, or more precisely, who are we talking about? Who is the laureate? Jewish mom, of course! Judging by the results, she still has something to show the world and the Nobel Committee. So what does “behavioral economics” have to do with it? Well, regarding the Jewish mother, this is already clear, of course. How else is it there? What preceded, what went next - after all, everyone there is entirely “American”. This is how it should work! This is what collective leadership and collective responsibility are! Still: why is there such an abundance of Americans in the economy? Why are dubious “scientific” disciplines regularly at the peak of global recognition? And what does K. Marx have to do with it? Money. Nothing personal - money. The household economy is the engine of the market. And how households and members behave is how they spend it. And these are no longer jokes of dubious level and quality about “Americans”. This is blood, sweat, tears, bodies, souls, meanings, goals. And who? Elites of the world. Shadows. That is, those who rule everything. And gives meaning to everything. At least in the public sphere. In a free world. So to speak. Those who cannot be understood under any assumptions and an infinite amount of data. It is impossible to answer “for them” the main question: why do they need so much money? After all, everything already belongs to them? By the way, why do they need so much property? For what? The intellect becomes dull and breaks down at the first and only question: why? When, even before leaving for the village, I jotted down some short notes, I came up with 8 points, of which I cite only the following: 1. Level of economic practice 2. Request for an appropriate level of research. 3. In general, a request for a result 4. Objective theoretical restrictions (Gödel’s theorem) 5. Hence - behaviorism as some kind of meaningful response to the challenge: You can’t keep up with the Americans, with or without quotes, you can’t keep up. Because the level of US economic practice is only higher than the sky. Whether we like it or not. And therefore the whole trail comes from the “superstructure”: science, art, technology, etc. Hence the request for an appropriate level of research. And in general - a request for results. Because the result is the cornerstone of American culture. And this gives at least some chance not only to the loyal, but also to the competent, at least some. Unlike us, for example. But here is the objective complexity of predictability, prognostication of reflection: Gödel with his theorem. Therefore – tolerances, only tolerances, probabilities and almost superposition. In the sense of behavioral forecasts. Money is nothing personal. By the way, “behavioral economics” is nothing more than a completely American scientific and practical tradition: behaviorism. A kind of continuation. So to speak. Something like that. Where is “behavioral economics” itself? Of course, in Behavioral Economics. Why retell something that an inquisitive reader must reflect on himself??? And there is something to reflect on. Judge for yourself: Page 15 ... economics is also considered the most powerful social science in the intellectual sense. The basic postulate of economic theory states that a person makes a choice based on the possible optimal outcome... In other words, we make choices based on what economists call “rational expectation.” Another postulate is conditional optimization, which means that the choice is made under a limited budget. Page 24 I searched but could not find a source of data on mortality rates by type of occupation. By comparing mortality rates by occupation with the salary data I had, I was able to calculate what salary would need to be offered to get a person to agree to risk their life doing a dangerous job. Page 41 A person loves to make a profit, but even more a person hates to receive losses. Page 45 Loss Avoidance: A loss is felt more strongly than the joy of an equivalent gain. This observation has become the most powerful tool in the arsenal of behavioral economics. Page 60. According to psychologists, in order to learn something from experience, two conditions are required: frequent practice and immediate results. Page 65. In a nutshell, we were interested in the question: “How do people think about money?” Recall from the description of the endowment effect that all economic decisions are made based on the assumption of opportunity costs. The cost of dinner and a movie tonight is not the same as a financial cost, and alternative ways of spending the same time and money must also be taken into account. Page 66. If you understand opportunity cost and if you have a ticket to a game that you can sell for $1,000, then it doesn't matter how much you paid for that ticket. The cost of watching the game is equal to what you can afford with $1,000. Page 68. Unlike Rationals, People also take into account another aspect of the purchase: the subjective quality of the transaction. This is what transaction utility reflects. Page 71. Several retail chains have tried over the years to lure shoppers with something like "everyday low prices," but these experiments have generally failed. A one-time profitable purchase is more satisfying than the opportunity to save a small and generally almost imperceptible amount of money on regular purchases of individual products. Page 72. Large format discount chains like Walmart, Costco use the strategy of low prices every day, but do not eliminate transactional utility, quite the opposite - they convinced their customers that the essence of shopping is to hunt for the best price, and stepped aside to reinforce this image. It's important for business owners to understand that everyone has a stake in a good deal. Whether it's a sale or really low prices, shoppers are enticed by a good deal. Page 82. Faulkner said that a writer must learn to kill his loved ones. Page 114. Our model is based on metaphor. We proceed from the assumption that at any given time an individual has two identities. One of them, the ant identity, makes plans for the future with good intentions and rational goal-setting, and the other, the dragonfly identity, lives for today, blithely floating with the flow. Page 132. What makes people willing to pay more for beer from an expensive hotel restaurant, instead of buying it cheaper in a run-down store? Or in scientific terms: what makes an economic transaction “fair” in the eyes of buyers? Page 133. “Gauging” is the use of the current situation in the market, when, due to force majeure and monopoly, the seller who has a monopoly on the market raises the price of an “ordinary” product. The usual meaning of the verb "gauge" is to make a hole or passage with a sharp instrument. Page 136. ...perception of fairness is associated with the endowment effect. Both buyers and sellers feel that they have the right to expect certain trading conditions to which they are accustomed, so any deviation from these conditions is considered a loss. Page 141. As usual in a situation where demand increases sharply, the seller must carefully weigh everything before choosing between making short-term profits and risking long-term losses from lost customer loyalty, which are difficult to measure. Page 142. New York State and Uber have reached an agreement whereby, in the event of a market abnormality, Uber will limit the increase in its multiplier rate according to a formula: it will first determine the highest multiplier applied on four different days in the sixty-day period prior to the abnormal market condition. market conditions”, and the highest price of these four should serve as the threshold for establishing an increasing coefficient for the period of emergency. In addition, Uber, on its own initiative, proposed to donate 20% of excess profits received on these days to the American Red Cross. Page 144. The concept of the Next restaurant in New York is extremely original. Three times a year, the restaurant menu is completely updated. The theme of the menu is something unexpected every time: dinner in Paris in 1906, Thai street food. When the restaurant was about to open, the owners announced that all food would be ticketed, with prices varying depending on the day of the week and time. Although economists suggested the exact opposite to the business owner. Now the restaurant owner has begun selling his software for an online ticket sales service to other restaurants. Page 159. According to the definition accepted in physics, an object remains at rest until something happens. People behave the same way: they stick to what they have until there is a compelling reason to change that state of affairs. At some point in time, a person reaches an age when he can no longer be described as “promising.” Page 212. Keynes: “It is a generally accepted truth that, to save one’s reputation, it is better to be wrong sometimes than to be right all the time.” That's it now.