However, in my opinion, a fairly long-term strengthening of the ruble, according to all market laws, should be replaced by a downward correction in relation to the dollar as well. Now we are very close to the maximum values ​​in the ruble-dollar pair; it will most likely not be possible to break through the level of 56 rubles per dollar. Taking into account the fact that neither the state nor exporters the dollar is at 56.5-57 rubles, with the cost of a barrel not exceeding $53, we will probably see the dollar return to around 58-58.5 rubles in April. Moreover, this can happen even without the participation of the United States, where a serious struggle is currently unfolding for the implementation of election promises Trump.

Speaking of the USA. The Fed's official rhetoric regarding further tightening of credit policy remains unchanged, judging by recent speeches Janet Yellen, with a high degree of probability, in June the regulator will once again raise the rate, which should strengthen the dollar against national currencies, including the ruble. How strong such a strengthening will be, given the extremely sluggish market reaction to the Fed’s latest step, is difficult to say, but, in my opinion, further strengthening of the dollar due to the continuation of the Fed’s policy can be considered inevitable.

Taking into account the fact that even before the end of spring the ruble may drop significantly against the dollar, buying the latter now at its lowest levels since 2015 seems to be a very good decision.

Stanislav Novikov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of FG BCS for Retail Business

We do not predict sharp changes in the ruble-dollar pair in the foreseeable future; medium-term factors speak in favor of a slight strengthening of the dollar. Fluctuations in the exchange rate may increase in May, on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting, where a decision will be made on extending the oil production reduction program.

If you have dollars, keep them, don't sell them. Do you want to buy or buy more? 55-57 rubles is a very good range for purchase, but you don’t have to invest all your money. The optimal share of currency in the structure of savings of a person living and spending money in Russia is 40%. It is advisable to store at least 60% in rubles.

Alexander Shustov, General Director of the Money Fanny company

I would like to say right away that trying to make money on the difference in exchange rates using exchange offices is very risky, so the “earning money” strategy does not need to be taken into account at all. It is better to take into account the strategy for forming your savings. If you buy currency to save your savings, then any level below 60 rubles per dollar is favorable for you in the long term (1-2 years).

You should not succumb to the emotional perception of the falling exchange rate and try to “catch the bottom”, but rather analyze macroeconomic indicators, which over the horizon of 1-2 years can lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and a weakening of the ruble.

Firstly, the large budget deficit in the Russian Federation, which will worsen as the 2018 election campaign approaches. Secondly, the intention of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to reduce the key rate and the opposite intention of the US Federal Reserve to raise the rate. In 1-2 years, the gap in rates will be smaller; the Trump administration intends to strengthen the dollar, so betting on the ruble as an “emerging market currency” is not very far-sighted.

It is best to transfer your salary or savings into foreign currency not in its entirety at once, but in parts, then as a result you will receive a currency portfolio with a certain weighted average rate over several months and will not try to catch the “most favorable rate”. This is impossible and unnecessary.

Observing the unstable situation in the country's economy, many people quickly succumb to panic and begin to buy currency en masse.

Any, even the slightest, changes in the social situation have repeatedly demonstrated how precarious the position of the Russian monetary unit is, and how sensitive the exchange rate is to political fluctuations. Exchange quotes serve as a clear example.

The desire of the population to protect their financial interests as much as possible is understandable, however, to increase capital you need to be able to make the right decisions. The pressing question today: whether it is worth investing in foreign currencies, mainly in American ones, is also of concern to authoritative experts, whose opinions we will consider below.

Why is the ruble falling?

Traditionally, citizens in Russia prefer the American currency, which has strengthened noticeably in recent years. Why did this trend arise? Of course, the ongoing conflict of political interests between the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and now Syria has a huge impact.

The weakening of the ruble exchange rate is mainly caused by the following reasons:

• reduction in the cost of “black gold” – oil;
• the introduction of economic sanctions against our state;
• cessation of trade turnover with Western companies;
• the decision of the Central Bank to use foreign exchange interventions exclusively in emergency situations;
• predominantly dollar payments when carrying out export operations;
• instability of the EU and Eurozone.

The annexation of Crimea and humanitarian and social support for the population of Eastern Ukraine also have a significant impact on the weakening of the economy.

In connection with current events in the world, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predict two options for the development of the country’s economy:

1. Optimistic - the situation in Ukraine will stabilize, anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, the cost of a barrel of oil will rise, and the dollar will drop to 35-40 rubles.
2. Pessimistic - the escalation of the Ukrainian military conflict continues. Sanctions from the West will become tougher, and the price of oil will fall even further. In this situation, the ruble exchange rate will decrease and inflation will rise.

Leading specialists - experts, economists, chairmen of large banks (Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, BCS Premier) still count on the stabilization of the Russian ruble.

Looks at the situation more realistically Andrey Nechaev- founder of the Russian Financial Corporation and First Minister of Economy. He believes that as long as panic among the population grows, the ruble cannot be strengthened. And this is logical, everyone remembers the currency rush at the end of 2014, which led to an insane demand for “Americans” and “Europeans”, and, as a result, to an increase in their value.

Alexey Kudrin, former Minister of Finance, is also confident that the ruble is expected to weaken by the end of 2015.

And here is the director of the investment company "Finam" Solabuto Nikolay predicts a noticeable improvement in the current situation only by the end of 2018. Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation German Gref I agree that the long-term perspective of 2016-2018 will bring a decrease in the dollar to 45 rubles.

What do foreign experts think?

Despite the US government's confidence in the growth of the country's economy, the exchange rate of the American currency will begin to decline in the coming months. This is already noticeable.

The opinions of independent foreign experts were also divided into several points of view:

• optimistic– sanctions will not be lifted, trade relations between Russia and China are developing at a slow pace, the dollar exchange rate remains in the middle;
• realistic– Russia’s foreign economic relations are being established with Asian countries and China, this allows the Russian monetary unit to strengthen and not lose ground;
• pessimistic– Russia and its partner countries are minimizing dollar transactions, which leads to a fall in the American currency.

As you can see, no one gives clear predictions about what the exchange rate will be and whether it is worth investing in foreign money. And what will happen next, time will tell. Definitely, you should not transfer all your money into any specific currency. Distribute the amount evenly to reduce the risk of losing everything.

Important Takeaways

• Anton Siluanov, head of the Ministry of Finance, believes that short-term investments in dollars are fraught with the loss of existing savings. A promising option is to buy dollars during the period of “rollback” (usually after direct lines with Vladimir Putin, signing lucrative contracts on oil and gas transactions, etc.) and subsequent sale during the period of growth - with transaction amounts of 50 thousand rubles. There is no point in trading less.
• Non-cash exchange transactions by converting from your account will be cheaper. In addition, banks usually offer favorable rates in the evening, at the end of the working week and for direct exchange, for example, euros into dollars.
• Do not forget about the mandatory commission, the amount of which must be taken into account when planning income from the transaction. It is profitable to withdraw foreign currency cash from your card.
• Leading experts advise keeping money in the currency in which you receive your main income.
• When choosing a bank, evaluate the conditions offered - quotes, commission size, safety and reliability of the financial institution.

Naturally, everyone must decide on their own which currency to invest in and how much. If you do not plan to spend foreign currency or travel abroad, there is no point in buying euros and dollars with all your savings. A moderately correct decision would be to invest in several major currencies, including, in addition to the leaders, the Chinese yuan and the ruble. If you intend to make money on the difference in rates, today is not the best time for this, according to professional financiers. To compare points of view, read forecasts and track all changes, visit the popular forum on the information resource www.banki.ru. Fresh discussions of the latest financial news and offers in the world of banking services appear here quickly.

The dollar exchange rate against the Russian ruble the day before was set at 56 rubles 34 kopecks. As polytika.ru found out, this is the lowest dollar-ruble exchange rate over the past year and a half - the last time this was recorded was in the middle of summer the year before last. The day before, the Arguments and Facts publication looked into whether it is worth running to an exchange office for American currency or whether you need to wait a little longer, having conducted a survey of financial analysts.

It's time

“The current dynamics of ruble pairs makes both the Central Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation quite nervous,” says Sergei Kozlovsky, head of the analytical department of Grand Capital. According to him, we should expect decisive actions from the federal regulator aimed at restraining the ruble exchange rate. That is why, the expert believes, the current rate of 56-56.5 rubles per 1 US dollar can be called acceptable for purchasing foreign currency. Meanwhile, Kozlovsky advises not to expect rapid growth of the dollar in the foreseeable future - it is worth preparing for approximately 58-60 rubles per dollar by the middle of this year.

Imminent downward correction?

“It seems to me that the current situation that has developed in the foreign exchange market creates the most optimal conditions for buying the dollar in order to create savings for the medium term. From the very beginning of this year, we have seen a fairly confident increase in interest from large investors in the Russian ruble, which is certainly reflected in an increase in its resistance to negative external factors,” says IFC Markets analyst Dmitry Lukashov.

Lukashov suggests paying attention to the fact that even during the recent correction, when the strength of the psychological threshold of $50 per barrel of oil was tested, the ruble not only managed to maintain its position, but also continued to strengthen. And if we add to this the reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank, as well as ongoing interventions from the Ministry of Finance, it turns out that today the position of the ruble looks more than confident.

“However, it seems to me that a fairly long-term strengthening of the Russian currency, according to all market laws, should end in a downward correction. Today we have approached almost the maximum values ​​of the ruble pair, therefore, it will most likely not be possible to break through the level of 56 rubles per 1 US dollar. Moreover, next month we may see the exchange rate return to 58-58.5 rubles per dollar,” says Lukashov.

The outlook is stable

“We are not inclined to predict any sharp changes in the dollar-ruble pair in the foreseeable future. Medium-term factors currently favor a slight strengthening of the dollar in the future. General fluctuations in the exchange rate may be slightly higher in May, right before the OPEC+ meeting, within the framework of which a decision is planned to be made regarding the extension of the program to reduce oil production,” says Stanislav Novikov, deputy head of the board of the FG BCS for retail.

According to Novikov, those who currently have dollars in stock should not rush to sell them, it is better to hold them. But if you want to buy a little more American currency, then the exchange rate range of 55-57 rubles per US dollar can be called good for this, but the expert still does not recommend investing all your funds in the currency. According to him, the optimal share of foreign currency in the structure of savings of a person who lives and makes purchases in Russia is 40%. The remaining 60% of cash is best kept in rubles.

Dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia - will the USD fall and the ruble strengthen? What is the objective reality of what is happening, is it worth buying the dollar now?

The exchange rate of the national currency is, in fact, a reflection of the strength of the economy. Even if we ignore the devaluation of 1998, the ruble is 65 units weaker than the dollar. The Russian economy is 65 units weaker than the US economy. If we compare other indicators, Russia is everywhere much weaker than the United States - GDP per capita (RF - 48th place, USA - 9th), volume of GDP (RF 3565 versus 17419 for the USA), etc. If we compare the Russian economy with the economies of NATO countries, it turns out that less than 3% compete with 70%. Import substitution in Russia is catastrophically low - about 20-30%; in fact, we produce only part of the textiles and food products.

It is clear that during political squabbles, stronger Western countries, through economic sanctions, easily push through our national currency. Now, while the “lost” Buryats and “dismissed” GRU special forces are waging war on foreign territory, and the government, instead of saving production, is investing money in the military-industrial complex, which will not bring any added value, at the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia there can be no positive prognosis. The Minsk agreements were only able to weaken the conflict, but they cannot stop it - the war is going on, sanctions are not being lifted, business in Russia is regressing.

The best scenario for the ruble is an end to the conflict in Ukraine, strengthening the Minsk agreements and negotiations that will ease the wave of sanctions. Then we can talk about a more or less stable dollar exchange rate of 55-58 rubles. But you need to understand that even in this situation, expert forecasts are far from rosy - the economy is driven below the plinth, it needs to be raised by the whole country. Under the USSR, the share of GDP in the world economy reached 11% - and this is thanks to the cult of labor. Today there is no work left - just leavened patriotism, a St. George's ribbon and the shaking of rusty weapons.

IS IT WORTH BUYING A DOLLAR?

Will the dollar rise in July 2017? There are no prerequisites for sudden growth, but there are a lot of prerequisites for gradual growth. There are practically no real factors for a strong decline, down another maximum of 5-7 rubles and then growth again. A correction is currently ongoing and will probably last until the end of summer. At most, the Central Bank will again drop the rate to 58-59 rubles, but since the reserves have already been replenished, there is no point in this operation. Therefore, it is reasonable to use the current stability to create your own foreign exchange reserves. The dollar is always growing in Russia. Because the US economy is always ahead of the Russian economy. Because Boeings fly in the sky, not TUs, we use American Windows, not Russian ones. Now, when our already miserable economy has been crushed by sanctions and lower oil prices, there are simply no prospects for strengthening the ruble. The monetary methods used by the Central Bank will last at most another 2-3 quarters.

Why will the ruble strengthen - if they start selling Armata to India? Or maybe Canada will buy our Urals with a plastic cabin?
The questions are rhetorical, as is the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia, which shows only sad prospects. There are two ways here - either change the government, urgently creating a free economy according to Western principles, actively growing small and medium-sized businesses that will help the country survive when oil falls. Or return to a full-fledged cult of labor, slavery and dictatorship. Russia needs a push, an impulse, consolidation, work. And delusional patriotism, based on verbal diarrhea and increasing contributions to the military-industrial complex against the backdrop of a decreasing budget for healthcare, only drives the economy deeper.

So dollar rates for July 2017 are from 58 with a continued correction to 67. There are no plans for sharp jumps yet.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine “site”! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and dollar will cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends and so on.

After all, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens due to its total instability . The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by rising prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners are concerned with one question: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions; even experienced analysts hesitate to make specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually strengthen, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will learn our vision from the forecast of the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

Do you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even based on the policies of the Central Bank.

The motive for introducing sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to secede from unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 a referendum was held, which attracted more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and the further annexation of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the residents of Crimea they wanted it themselves separation from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, candidate countries for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit Russian banks' access to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft manufacturing.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• "Gazpromneft".

The following Russian banks were hit by sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• "Gazprombank";
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was not spared the sanctions:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions consist of a prohibition for residents of the European Union and their companies to carry out transactions with securities whose expiration date more than 30 days , assistance to Russia in the production of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited transactions with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also prohibited the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying goods, services and special-purpose technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any EU country, not to mention entering the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, to companies subject to sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for a period of more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to support Russian military forces to Russian territory. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft that were developed by US forces or that contain elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade and economic relations among companies and banks and so on.

As we see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something to ensure the normal functioning of the country and stabilize the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. In response to Russia's sanctions, the European Union is introducing retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

By cooperating, you can issue joint bonds and investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export. Trade in petroleum products is currently at a low level, and all because prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia achieve its share of stabilizing the national currency over time.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine turning into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You shouldn’t expect such actions from the US government; by bending to Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency has fallen by more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This is especially concerning for people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, shares and other assets from this broker .

The ruble exchange rate is falling, and it is unknown whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury items.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in prices for oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable positions. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the falling exchange rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the exchange rate through inflation targeting. basis The method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. alarming
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in the countries of Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should regain its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Alarming scenario

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Collapses in the oil market only worsen the situation regarding the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government’s plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. Export development is where the state’s efforts are directed.

Of course, exporting goods will bring additional income to the country as Russia copes with its production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the harvest collected by Russian farmers and earth workers.

You should not expect the ruble exchange rate to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations for a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The decline of the economy cannot have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage decline in GDP, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the terms and conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

There will be several reasons for this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. This primarily concerns natural gas, which through its exports brings a large share of the country’s income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent annexation of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital from the country.

In such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible escalation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In the current situation, every Russian citizen monitors the behavior of the ruble on the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can highlight those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investment by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies helps stabilize the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is poorly developed. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only to meet the needs of the country, but also to export it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget with oil sales. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income.
• Population's attitude towards the national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning is in these words; people treat him normally. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country’s lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, like residents, so Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high production volume will make it possible to meet not only the needs of the country, but also to export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors in the fall of the ruble

Along with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble exchange rate in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, and our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our cash savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its exchange rate. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the decline of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest money in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble is losing its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation of the exchange rate in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. The game of the population with exchange rates. Most Russians have a desire to make money on exchange rates. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, after looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people ensure secure storage of their savings through a stable currency. At moments when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply, huge transfers were made exchanging Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures a fall in the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank measures. During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still; industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sales is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that remains from the times of the Soviet Union does not allow us to operate at the power that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for approximately the same price category as domestic producers. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, by giving preference to goods from another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country’s balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said: 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts on this matter.

💡 We recommend that you first familiarize yourself with the opinions of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". Following the link you will find tabs and sections with the latest forecasts from a specialist; you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

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Former Russian Finance Minister, Alexey Kudrin , believes that the country's economy is subject to a huge recession in the near future. This opinion was inspired by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist Vladimir Tikhomir , I completely agree with Kudrin’s opinion. According to the economist, the economic recovery and the achieved level of stability are only a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . Occupying the post of head of the Finnam Management company, he associates the reason for this situation with the rapid fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the price of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export “black gold” on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby “cutting off the oxygen” for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which completely depends on the environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policies will be associated with certain activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today’s measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors behind the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These include external sanctions from other states and the country’s external debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the price of oil will $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. This price will further reduce 10-15 % from today's value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, you need to understand for yourself the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price decreases, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank forecasts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level for this price is at $70, and the support level is at $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. If it breaks down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of the absolute minimum over the last decade and was equal $28 per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position relative to other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the value of their national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and a dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country’s economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to implement measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some countries, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the opportunity to enter the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal to 55-58 rubles, if OPEC's policy will help raise prices per barrel of oil to $75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial flows directed to our country will decrease by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion of production capacity, as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

We should not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not benefit our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the national currency exchange rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be around $70 per barrel.

All world banks They all agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting a rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to boost the economy as a whole, we will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because you shouldn’t expect a quick return to the previous situation.

7. Frequently asked questions about ruble and dollar exchange rates 📢

Question No. 1. Is it true that the dollar will be abolished in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all kinds of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory blow.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the financial world system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the Russian national currency.

For example, trading a national resource of Russia, like natural gas, for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to depreciate in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell American treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will instantly collapse.

General Director of City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov states that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the population's savings are, to a greater extent, stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which will ultimately lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to combat the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question No. 2. What is the forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for the coming week?

When forecasting the exchange rate you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future; they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change or stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, since there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate.

We remind you that the latest forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question No. 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must be at an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from a country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has largest national debt . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which creates the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar as a world currency should fall.
But questions arise as to why, given this situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why do expert forecasts not come true year after year, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What consequences could there be of a falling dollar?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come to replace it. It is necessary to think about what currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts give Euro to replace dollar. But we should not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

America's large debt to these countries is also to blame for this stagnation. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were experiencing a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use it as a currency basket. exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated funds and possibly increase them.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using the dollar as a currency basket promotes stability and demand for America’s national currency.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the cause of the economic crisis was one of the “powerful moves” on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

As a method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar exchange rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is only possible in the following cases:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of American currency and abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. If countries stop trading using the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, when trading and purchasing, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity; it will become less in demand.

Question No. 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed’s decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our views on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

*Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts!!!

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9. Conclusion + video on the topic 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a quick stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain amount of patience; the ruble exchange rate will strengthen soon.

But despite such rosy prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the last two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia will face full budget deficit.

After all, the country’s income will drop significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But we need to look at today’s situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making deposits to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that everyone is looking for the answer to the questions - “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, making their own forecasts and relying on their own principles.

If you have questions or suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video