Financial experts believe that by the end of 2018 the euro currency will fall against the dollar to $1.12. From January 2019, the euro exchange rate will begin to grow slowly, this is the opinion of many analysts. Until this moment, the ruble was considered in the financial market, but now experts are more inclined towards the euro.

An increase in the exchange rate of the euro or dollar to 100 rubles is unlikely. Predisposing factors to the instability of the foreign exchange market are the economic relations between the EU, the USA and Russia.

The Eurozone currently experiences low inflation and economic growth. The issue of the possible introduction of non-standard measures by the ECB, which will help combat the deflationary threat, is now being decided.

Based on Forbes data, at the end of August 2018, the euro weakened its position against the dollar by 9-10%. The indicators of US trade policy make experts skeptical. Many countries are involved in negotiations on the use of national currencies and bypassing the dollar.

In practice, it is clear that such proposals cannot be implemented. The dollar occupies a strong position against the euro and the ruble, which will begin to strengthen its position after the Russian economy stabilizes.

The euro does not “suffer” as much from military operations in the Middle East as the dollar and ruble. Any actions in the economic market entail a number of consequences that are not beneficial for countries.

Donald Trump, after restricting the import of cars from Europe, received a boycott of American agricultural products on the European market in retaliation.

Due to sanctions and various restrictions, internal tension in the European market is increasing.

Expert opinion on the euro exchange rate in 2018

According to analysts, at the moment it is difficult to say in which currency it is best to keep cash savings. Nowadays, most Russians earn in rubles. Experts advise spending them rather than converting them into any foreign currency.

Due to economic weakness in many regions, the euro is expected to remain under pressure in early 2019. Dynamic growth of the European currency is unlikely. At the moment, the euro is considered a common replacement for the dollar; without the euro currency, it will be difficult to maintain global balance in the foreign exchange market.

The fate of the euro will depend on the actions of the ECB. If he changes the easing program, the European economy will be stimulated. By the end of 2018, the euro will cost 79.69 rubles or $1.148.

There is a low probability that the euro will strengthen its position against the dollar in 2018. From January 2019, the European currency may rise, but only slightly.

In times of crisis, counterfeit banknotes often appear on the market. A distinctive feature of the euro is the 11-digit serial number, to which another letter is added.

When replacing a letter with its serial number in the Latin alphabet and adding the resulting numbers with the rest, the number 8 should come out. Only in this case is the bill genuine.

There is another way to check. The numbers and letter will correspond to the country where the bill was printed. If the result is X2, then the bill comes from Germany.

The dynamics of political and economic factors will determine what will happen to the euro in 2018. The European Union will have to determine the further format for the functioning of the association, which increases the level of uncertainty. In addition, the position of the euro will depend on the policy of the ECB, which is not interested in excessive strengthening of the European currency.

Political uncertainty and new economic challenges: what will happen to the euro in 2018

In 2018, the European Union will face new challenges that may affect the future format of the association. After the shock of Brexit, United Europe is faced with the problem of Catalonia. In addition, some regions of Italy have announced their intention to expand their autonomy. In such conditions, the continued existence of the EU remains under threat.

The strengthening of the positions of Eurosceptics indicates a crisis in the main EU institutions. Excessive bureaucracy is increasingly becoming a target of criticism from various EU members. Also, European countries have different attitudes towards the problem of migrants, which increases the level of tension.

Growing political uncertainty creates pressure on the foreign exchange market, experts say. In addition, the dynamics of the European currency will depend on economic factors and the policies of the ECB. The regulator is not interested in a strong euro, fearing negative consequences for European exporters. The strengthening of the euro will lead to a slowdown in inflation to 1.2% next year, the ECB emphasizes. In addition, the growth of the European currency will worsen the competitive positions of export-oriented companies.

Unwanted strengthening

During 2017, the euro continues to win back its positions against the dollar. Despite the extension of the quantitative easing policy, the value of the European currency has reached a local maximum over the past three years. This trend is associated with the policies of Donald Trump and the uncertain prospects for the American economy.

In such conditions, the ECB will not be able to achieve its target inflation level, which poses a threat to the sustainable growth of the eurozone economy. As a result, the regulator will be forced to abandon its intentions to curtail the QE policy. At the same time, analysts expect a gradual reduction in the volume of asset repurchases in 2018.

In addition to slowing inflation, a strong euro will lead to a deterioration in the position of exporters. At the same time, imported goods will receive an additional advantage, which will lead to a deterioration in the trade balance.

The ECB is concerned about the significant volatility of the European currency, which has a negative impact on the pace of economic recovery. Mario Draghi notes the impact of the euro on economic growth and inflation. In 2017, the eurozone economy will grow by 2.2%, the ECB predicts, which is the highest growth since 2007. The regulator intends to maintain the achieved growth rates in 2018.

In 2018, DZ Bank analysts predict that the euro/dollar quotes will remain at the level of 1.18 dollars/euro. Despite significant political risks, the United Europe passed the peak of uncertainty in 2017. The election results in Germany and France became favorable signals for Euro-optimists. In addition, the eurozone economy maintains positive dynamics.

Representatives of Rand Merchant Bank are less optimistic about the European currency. Next year, the value of the euro will drop to 1.12 dollars/euro, which will be possible thanks to a rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

The dynamics of the euro/ruble exchange rate for 2018 will depend on oil market trends and macroeconomic indicators of the domestic economy.

Prospects for the ruble in 2018

The government allows for a weakening of the ruble next year, which will have a positive impact on the performance of the Russian economy. As a result, the value of the European currency will reach the range of 70-72 rubles/euro. At the same time, the government will receive additional financial resources that will help finance increased social spending next year.

The key factor for the foreign exchange market remains the dynamics of oil prices. Price increases in the fourth quarter of 2017 to $57-60/barrel. allowed to stabilize the position of the domestic currency. At the same time, the Central Bank continues to reduce the discount rate, which leads to a partial outflow of speculative capital.

The basic forecast of analysts assumes a moderate growth of the euro in 2018, which will be possible if the price of oil stabilizes at $60 per barrel. Extension of oil production quotas will be the key to market balance next year, analysts say. However, the “black gold” market will remain significantly volatile, which is fraught with new collapses in quotes.

Next year, oil prices may drop to $40 per barrel if demand for “black gold” remains low. In particular, the dynamics of global oil consumption will depend on the performance of the Chinese economy, which has not yet overcome the consequences of turmoil in the financial markets. In such conditions, the Russian currency will face a new period of weakening. As a result, the euro exchange rate may reach 80 rubles/euro, analysts predict.

The position of the euro next year will be determined by political and economic factors. At the same time, much will depend on the policy of the ECB, which intends to accelerate the eurozone economy and reach inflation at 2%. In addition, the regulator is concerned about the excessive strengthening of the European currency, which is worsening the position of European exporters. In such conditions, experts allow the euro/dollar exchange rate to fluctuate in the range of 1.12-1.18 dollars/euro.

The value of the euro against the ruble will depend on the volatility of the oil market. Under the baseline scenario, the Russian currency is expected to weaken slightly to 70-72 rubles/euro. In the event of a new collapse in oil prices, the ruble will face a deeper devaluation. As a result, the euro exchange rate will reach 80 rubles/euro.

Look video with expert opinions on the situation with the euro for 2018:

Despite the favorable forecasts of financiers compiled for 2016-2017, the Russian economy is far from ideal. The global crisis, significant fluctuations in exchange rates and sanctions deal a serious blow to it. Economic instability and the slow rise of the ruble are forcing the public to save in euros. This monetary unit is famous for its consistently high performance. And recent expert forecasts have shown that in 2018 (in the first half) the euro exchange rate in Russia will rise. This fact was confirmed by Sberbank of the Russian Federation. But will this trend continue?

Causes of euro instability

Experts' forecasts come true somewhere between 67-82%. It is quite difficult to say more precisely how the currency will behave, especially if the scenario is drawn up for a long period - a year or two. Why? It's simple. In the case of the European currency, its fluctuations directly depend on the demand for the dollar - the stabilization of one unit leads to a fall or slowdown in the growth of another. They are interconnected, so the circuit works in both directions. But the growth of the American currency is not the only reason for the euro's surges.

Experts make a forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2018, based on the economic situation in the EU countries. The cultural, social, and political situation within the borders of these states is also important, because they use it to conduct financial transactions and payments. This means that the tense political situation in one of the EU states will lead to the loss of positions by the monetary unit. This is the situation in the world and Europe.

What is happening with the European currency in Russia. It has been rapidly rising in price lately. Reasons for this:

• sanctions imposed on the state by the European Union;
• rise in price of fuel, the price of which increased by 11-14.5%;
• a decline in oil exports to the West, as a consequence of its reduction in price;
• previous inflation;
• state of the Russian economy, etc.

As long as there are sanctions that impede free trade, there is no need to talk about the stability of the euro exchange rate. The price for 100€ will be prohibitive. Until Russia restores stable and regular oil supplies to the West, forecasting the exchange rate will differ from reality.

What forecasts do government experts make for 2018?

Leading economists in Russia and the Ministry of Finance do not predict any sharp changes for the worse in the future. Despite the fact that it is extremely difficult to propose an exact scenario for the development of the exchange rate, according to analysts and officials, the value of the EU currency will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. But such a price has not been seen on the financial market for more than 5 years. Such a positive development scenario does not inspire confidence, especially if you study the tables of the euro’s behavior by month, which large Russian banks have already posted on their pages.

Experts working at Sberbank predict the following scenario.

The forecast of Sberbank analysts, presented in the table, shows that in 2018 the euro exchange rate will continue to be unstable. The price for 1 € in the first months of next year will increase to 85-90 rubles. At the same time, future events in the world “hint” that this figure is far from the limit. The main news of August-September 2017 was the issue under consideration regarding England’s exit from the EU. If the exception comes true (more than half of the British voted for the country to leave the European Union), there will be no need to talk about the stability of the price of the EU currency.

But still, analysts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are building optimistic scenarios, assuming an early end to the crisis situation in the foreign exchange market. Hence the low figures for the euro for 2018, which ministry analysts announced in the hope that oil prices will rise by the middle of next year - the price is expected to rise to $80 per barrel. But analysts from independent Russian agencies offer the following oil forecasts for next year.

According to the table, the maximum price increase that can be expected at the very beginning of the year is 60-65 per barrel.

What to expect: growth and decline in the value of the euro?

The opinions of independent experts and economists differ. The discrepancies in the scenarios amount to 5-12 rubles. Many foreign experts believe that the EU currency rate will rise to 100 rubles by mid-2018. This figure is explained by the fact that the Russian economy will not be able to grow in the coming months due to current sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods. Although not all Western experts predict such a leap. Analysts at one of the largest US banking holdings, Morgan Stanley, see no reason for the euro to rise above the 80 ruble mark. This is their latest forecast, based on the growth rate of the Russian economy. In 2018, growth will be at least 1.78%.

Despite disagreements in figures, both Russian and foreign analysts and economists are convinced that December 2017 and January next year will be months of active growth of the euro in the Russian Federation. Financial experts note that sharp jumps in the exchange rate are not expected, but warn of a possible decrease in value if Russia manages to restore oil sales at a higher price. But still, you should not rely on the accuracy of the scenarios they offer.

When reviewing the latest analytical scenario, it is advised to take into account the situation in the country and the world, in particular in the EU. Economists recommend that those who have already saved a certain amount in euros should not change it in the near future. And for those Russians who would like to buy foreign currency, it is wiser to wait for the price to fall. According to forecasts, it is expected in November 2017 (a slight decrease in cost - by 2.4%) and from September 2018.

Updated 02/27/2020 11:20

What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow?

The Euro exchange rate forecast for tomorrow is 71.47 rub., the minimum rate is 70.47, and the maximum is 72.47 rubles. The current exchange rate is Euro 71.72. Today the rate is growing by 0.70% compared to yesterday’s close of the day at 71.22.

Will the Euro rise or fall in a week?

Euro exchange rate forecast in a week 73.95 rub., minimum 72.91, maximum 74.99 rub. Thus, for a week the Euro exchange rate will increase on 2.23 rub. relative to the current exchange rate of 71.72 rubles. For more detailed forecast by day for the week, see the table below.

What is the Euro exchange rate forecast for February?

Euro exchange rate forecast for February 67.77-72.57, at the end of February 71.47 rub. At the beginning of February, the Euro exchange rate was 70.97, i.e. the change for the month will be +0.7%.

What Euro rate is forecast for March?

Euro exchange rate forecast for March - 74.18 rub. at the end of March, the minimum rate during the month is 70.57, the maximum is 75.22. Monthly change +3.8%.

Euro exchange rate forecast for each day in the table

date	Day	Min	Well	Max
28.02	Friday	70.47	71.47	72.47
02.03	Monday	70.57	71.57	72.57
03.03	Tuesday	72.02	73.04	74.06
04.03	Wednesday	72.34	73.37	74.40
05.03	Thursday	72.91	73.95	74.99
06.03	Friday	72.69	73.72	74.75
09.03	Monday	72.51	73.54	74.57
10.03	Tuesday	72.78	73.81	74.84
11.03	Wednesday	72.60	73.63	74.66
12.03	Thursday	72.88	73.91	74.94
13.03	Friday	72.40	73.43	74.46
16.03	Monday	71.63	72.65	73.67
17.03	Tuesday	71.35	72.36	73.37
18.03	Wednesday	72.09	73.11	74.13
19.03	Thursday	72.42	73.45	74.48
20.03	Friday	72.04	73.06	74.08
23.03	Monday	71.11	72.12	73.13
24.03	Tuesday	70.59	71.59	72.59
25.03	Wednesday	71.77	72.79	73.81
26.03	Thursday	72.77	73.80	74.83
27.03	Friday	73.01	74.05	75.09
30.03	Monday	72.14	73.16	74.18
31.03	Tuesday	73.14	74.18	75.22
01.04	Wednesday	73.17	74.21	75.25

What is the Euro forecast for April?

Euro exchange rate forecast for April is in the range of 73.17-76.85, at the end of April 75.79 rub. Monthly change +2.2%.

What is the Euro rate predicted for the rest of 2020?

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020 year: the rate will trade in the range of 70.57-76.85. Exchange rate forecast for the end of December 2020 72.62 rub.

What will the Euro exchange rate be in 2021?

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2021 year: rate at the end of December 2021 - 69.76 rub. And throughout the year the rate will fluctuate in the range of 66.14-72.62.

Euro exchange rate forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022

Month	Start	Min-Max	End	Total,%
2020
Feb	70.97	67.77-72.57	71.47	+0.7%
Mar	71.47	70.57-75.22	74.18	+4.5%
Apr	74.18	73.17-76.85	75.79	+6.8%
May	75.79	73.18-75.79	74.22	+4.6%
Jun	74.22	72.61-74.67	73.64	+3.8%
Jul	73.64	73.11-75.19	74.15	+4.5%
Aug	74.15	70.83-74.15	71.84	+1.2%
Sep	71.84	71.84-75.76	74.71	+5.3%
Oct	74.71	72.33-74.71	73.36	+3.4%
But I	73.36	70.77-73.36	71.77	+1.1%
Dec	71.77	71.60-73.64	72.62	+2.3%
2021
Jan	72.62	70.43-72.62	71.43	+0.6%
Feb	71.43	69.25-71.43	70.23	-1.0%
Mar	70.23	69.26-71.22	70.24	-1.0%
Apr	70.24	68.35-70.29	69.32	-2.3%
May	69.32	69.32-71.73	70.74	-0.3%
Jun	70.74	68.16-70.74	69.13	-2.6%
Jul	69.13	66.21-69.13	67.15	-5.4%
Aug	67.15	67.15-70.82	69.84	-1.6%
Sep	69.84	68.44-70.38	69.41	-2.2%
Oct	69.41	68.89-70.85	69.87	-1.5%
But I	69.87	66.14-69.87	67.08	-5.5%
Dec	67.08	67.08-70.74	69.76	-1.7%
2022
Jan	69.76	69.76-72.48	71.48	+0.7%
Feb	71.48	69.38-71.48	70.37	-0.8%

Currency forecasts: