MOSCOW, November 15 – RIA Novosti, Dmitry Mayorov. People planning New Year's trips abroad or other spending of foreign currency in the near future should worry about buying it now, advise experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.

Buying foreign currency to save money is not so obvious given the continued high yield of ruble financial instruments and the expected volatility of the domestic foreign currency market, analysts say.

The sharp rise in the dollar and euro against the ruble has sharply raised the question of the advisability of purchasing the main reserve currencies. This directly depends on the plans of buyers, experts say.

The dollar exchange rate for “tomorrow” settlements by 18.34 Moscow time decreased by 0.07 rubles - to 60.18 rubles, the euro exchange rate grew by 0.05 rubles - to 71.08 rubles, follows from data from the Moscow Exchange. Earlier on Wednesday, the euro had already risen to 71.575 rubles - the maximum since August 4, the dollar - to 60.92 rubles - the maximum since July 11.

For those leaving - buy

Many Russians go abroad during the New Year holidays, and they should hurry up and buy foreign currency, says Alexander Razuvaev from the Alpari company.

“A weak ruble is beneficial to the budget, which means that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance are, in fact, not against the weakening of the Russian ruble. Of course, we should not expect a large-scale devaluation like in 2014, but the ruble is definitely more likely to fall than rise in value. Before “No one will allow the collapse of the ruble during the presidential elections, and inflation will be kept at the target of 4%,” he added.

If foreign currency spending is already planned (for example, a New Year's holiday or buying something denominated in foreign currency), then there is no need to postpone the purchase in an attempt to find the best rate, Alexey Skaballanovich from the Region EsM company also advises.

"If you look at the technical picture of trading in the USD-RUB pair, then a possible downward correction is likely by one ruble, and an increase by two. Therefore, the possible losses are greater than the theoretical gain. It is much more reasonable for individuals who buy dollars to buy directly on exchange. Thus, you can save on the spread and commission, and this gain is more significant and more certain. Again, by the new year, traditionally, the difference between the purchase and sale rates at exchange offices grows and on the days before the holidays can reach unreasonably large values," he said.

By the end of the year, a weakening of the ruble is expected rather than a return of the dollar to 57 rubles and below; with the euro, accordingly, a roughly similar picture emerges, Anastasia Sosnova from the Russian Capital Bank also assesses the situation.

If you plan to make significant expenses for the New Year holidays in foreign currency (travel abroad), then you should purchase the required amount in several stages in order to smooth out possible exchange rate fluctuations, advises Andrey Manko from RIA Rating.

“Most likely, until the end of the year, the ruble will strengthen at certain points, and the exchange rate will be slightly lower than now,” he added.

If you are planning trips abroad, then you should stock up on foreign currency right now, since November is perhaps the last month in 2017 when the Russian currency will more or less retain its position, says Evgenia Abramovich from Dukascopy Bank.

“The fact is that no one needs a strong ruble in the current circumstances: inflation is below the target level by a quarter, and either the December seasonal increase in sales or another decline in the ruble will return it back to 4%. Oil has strengthened significantly against the backdrop of scandals with Saudi Arabia and against a general positive information background regarding a possible increase in oil consumption in the future, however, these factors for the market are extremely temporary.Finally, the Fed rate increase this time will most likely have an impact on the ruble, since the factors that would neutralize it are there’s no more left,” she explained her position.

In December, the ruble may fall in price against the dollar by 5%, but at times of peak demand for the currency, the scale of the weakening may be slightly higher, predicts Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank.

Savers - stay in the ruble

For Russians who earn and spend money within the country, foreign currency is hardly interesting, argues Razuvaev from the Alpari company.

“Interest rates on bank deposits are now significantly higher than inflation, and shares of Russian companies as a whole are trading significantly below the highs of 2008. At the same time, ruble deposits are, of course, more reliable and short-term investments, while stocks are riskier and long-term investments,” he said .

Now there is no point in buying a currency in order to make money on the exchange rate, since even if the dollar continues to rise, a significant part of the earnings will be eaten up by spreads that accompany high volatility in the market, argues Yuri Kravchenko from Veles Capital Investment Company.

“If you have a significant amount in rubles, it makes sense to pay attention to a number of short-term offers on deposits of the largest banks (state banks, the largest foreign subsidiaries), among which you can find a ruble yield of 7% plus per annum. For depositors with an increased appetite for risk - short-term ruble deposits of banks transferred to the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund,” he added.

There is no need to panic now; the period of high demand for currency will most likely not last long, says Georgy Vashchenko from Freedom Finance Investment Company.

Next week, the USD-RUB pair may return to the range of 59-60, he estimated.

Despite the tendency for the ruble to weaken, ordinary citizens should not speculate in currency, argues Manko from RIA Rating. “Firstly, there will be noticeable losses on conversion, and secondly, in rubles the yield is noticeably higher,” he explained his position.

The American currency today is one of the reliable ways to save savings, so many are interested in when to buy dollars. For most, foreign exchange transactions are no longer something surprising, because today you can purchase a wide variety of types of foreign currency. But among them, the most stable is the dollar.

Against this background, the situation with the ruble is the opposite. Its exchange rate constantly fluctuates, which does not inspire confidence among Russians. The American dollar, which has been demonstrating high stability for many decades, is a completely different matter.

The government is taking certain steps to strengthen the national currency, and the ruble is gradually strengthening its position, but the dollar is still ahead of the ruble and quite significantly. To support the national currency, Russian banks provide loans in rubles and also use Russian currency to make payments.

But the population still has enough reasons not to trust the ruble. Therefore, those who have savings in this currency benefit when the next rate jump occurs.

After this, all goods immediately became more expensive. For most Russians, this came as a serious shock, because after that, with the available rubles, they could purchase goods three times less than before.

People who had purchased dollars were in a more advantageous position. They managed to save their funds from depreciation. But subsequently the surges stopped and the rate stabilized.

Dollar to ruble exchange rate growth chart

Such a situation can be assessed as an inevitable event from a series of financial cataclysms, and everyone understands that it is very difficult to do without dollars. Examples of this could be the default of 1998, the crisis of 2008 and 2014. Their consequences still affect the country's economy. And, despite any attempts by the ruble to strengthen, more and more Russians are beginning to become convinced that the dollar is a more stable currency and that it is more profitable to take it.

Rules for purchasing a dollar

Although the dollar is almost guaranteed to make a profit thanks to its stable exchange rate, this does not mean that any month of the year is favorable for buying it.

When to buy dollars?

Even if you try to analyze changes in exchange rates over recent years, you will still not be able to identify a certain pattern. The only conclusions that can be drawn are the following:

• Most often, the rate begins to rise in late summer and early autumn. Thus, it coincides with the resumption of business activity after the summer season. Taking this into account, it is advisable to plan the purchase of American currency at the end of spring and beginning of autumn, and more specifically, for the period from April to June.
• You need to learn to control yourself and not give in to panic. Seeing how quickly the Russian currency depreciated, which happened in 2014, most people immediately began buying dollars in order to sell them at a higher price after a while. But those who had good patience were in no hurry to cash out dollars and hoped to hold them for at least a week in order to increase the possible profit. However, it is wrong to do this. If such fluctuations in the national currency occur, then the authorities will definitely react to this in a certain way. They are taking measures to stabilize the exchange rate. Therefore, sooner or later the growth of the ruble will begin to slow down.

It follows that it is precisely at such moments that you should start selling it.

If you want to profitably buy dollars or euros in 2019, you need to pay attention to another liquid asset, which is gold. It helps many traders determine the moment when it is worth buying dollars.

The moment the price of the dollar begins to fall, this is a sign that speculators are beginning to withdraw their assets from it and transfer it to gold. As a result, the demand for the precious metal increases, and the US currency begins to depreciate.

It should be noted that today gold and oil are the main instruments that speculators use when trading against the dollar. They can also help you determine the favorable moment when you should start buying euros.

Another factor that can change the value of the US currency is the decisions of the Federal Reserve, as well as changes in interest rates. However, this factor is difficult to predict, since in some cases the rate may be increased and in others decreased, as a result the dollar exchange rate may rise or fall against other assets.

Credit institutions turn to the Central Bank for help

The banks were short of dollars. Foreign exchange reserves of credit institutions approached zero. As a result, they had to turn to the Central Bank for help. On Tuesday, financial institutions borrowed the maximum amount of “green” money from the regulator since 2014 - $1.5 billion. This indicates that there is a shortage of currency in the market, the demand for which is not decreasing. Is it worth buying a dollar now, MK asked the experts.

Financial market participants began to feel a shortage of currency in the spring. In July, inventories decreased by $3.2 billion, in June - by $0.7 billion, in May - by $4.3 billion, in April - by $3.7 billion, in March - by $1.6 billion.

As experts explain, there are several reasons for the reduction in the volume of currency.

In particular, the Ministry of Finance contributed. The department placed $3.9 billion in bonds in September 2017, which credit institutions rushed to buy. “It is more profitable to store liquidity in guaranteed instruments - in bonds of the Ministry of Finance or large parastatal companies. It is safe and also brings income at the level of 7.5-9.5% per annum. Therefore, banks do not maintain sufficient reserves of foreign currency. They prefer to borrow it “at the last moment,” when foreign currency payments and settlements are due. Moreover, they borrow from the Central Bank, where the interest rates for these operations are the lowest,” explains Pyotr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade Group.

However, the main reason for the reduction in the volume of currency is the payments of a number of the largest Russian corporations on external debt. “They have been accumulating currency since the end of the second quarter. But now, when the dollar costs 58.3 rubles, companies prefer to buy more foreign currency. Corporations base their forecast on the dollar exchange rate based on the fact that the Central Bank will continue to reduce the key rate. This means that Russian assets will become less and less interesting. Foreign investors and speculators will withdraw their capital. And as a result, the ruble exchange rate will begin to weaken,” notes General Director of Money Fanny Alexander Shustov.

Apparently, corporations plan to make money from this growth in the dollar exchange rate. However, citizens can follow their example. But from a risk management perspective, experts recommend that Russians keep 50% of their savings in rubles and the other 50% in foreign currency. “The so-called dual-currency basket allows you, if not to earn money, then at least not to lose your savings due to exchange rate fluctuations,” continues Shustov.

As financial analyst Gerchik&Co rightly notes. Viktor Makeev, “the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, first of all, depends on oil prices, the geopolitical situation and published statistics for the country.” For example, the expert does not rule out that “black gold” may continue its current upward movement - up to $65-67 per barrel. And this, in turn, will provide Russia with additional foreign exchange earnings and thereby support the ruble. The Russian currency may strengthen from the current 58.3 rubles per dollar to 56.

True, as analysts note, the future fate of the ruble will also depend on GDP data for the third quarter of 2017.” “By the end of the year, in the absence of new positive news, it is possible that the exchange rate will fall to 60-62 rubles per dollar,” warns Mashchenko.

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The banks were short of dollars. Foreign exchange reserves of credit institutions approached zero. As a result, they had to turn to the Central Bank for help. On Tuesday, financial institutions borrowed the maximum amount of greenbacks from the regulator since 2014 - $1.5 billion. This indicates that there is a shortage of currency in the market, the demand for which is not decreasing. Is it worth buying a dollar now, MK asked the experts.

Financial market participants began to feel a shortage of currency in the spring. In July, inventories decreased by $3.2 billion, in June - by $0.7 billion, in May - by $4.3 billion, in April - by $3.7 billion, in March - by $1.6 billion.

As experts explain, there are several reasons for the reduction in the volume of currency.

In particular, the Ministry of Finance contributed. The department placed $3.9 billion in bonds in September 2017, which credit institutions rushed to buy.

It is more profitable to store liquidity in guaranteed instruments - in bonds of the Ministry of Finance or large parastatal companies. It is safe and also brings income at the level of 7.5-9.5% per annum. Therefore, banks do not maintain sufficient reserves of foreign currency. They prefer to borrow it “at the last moment,” when foreign currency payments and settlements are due. Moreover, they borrow from the Central Bank, where the interest rates for these operations are the lowest,” explains Pyotr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade Group.

However, the main reason for the reduction in the volume of currency is the payments of a number of the largest Russian corporations on external debt.

They have been accumulating currency since the end of the second quarter. But now, when the dollar costs 58.3 rubles, companies prefer to buy more foreign currency. Corporations base their forecast on the dollar exchange rate based on the fact that the Central Bank will continue to reduce the key rate. This means that Russian assets will become less and less interesting. Foreign investors and speculators will withdraw their capital. And as a result, the ruble exchange rate will begin to weaken,” notes Alexander Shustov, general director of Money Fanny.

Apparently, corporations plan to make money from this growth in the dollar exchange rate. However, citizens can follow their example. But from a risk management perspective, experts recommend that Russians keep 50% of their savings in rubles and the other 50% in foreign currency.

The so-called dual-currency basket allows you, if not to earn money, then at least not to lose your savings due to exchange rate fluctuations,” continues Shustov.

As financial analyst Gerchik&Co rightly notes. Viktor Makeev, “the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, first of all, depends on oil prices, the geopolitical situation and published statistics for the country.” For example, the expert does not rule out that “black gold” may continue its current upward movement - up to $65-67 per barrel. And this, in turn, will provide Russia with additional foreign exchange earnings and thereby support the ruble. The Russian currency may strengthen from the current 58.3 rubles per dollar to 56.

Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst of the social network for investors eToro in Russia and the CIS, also sees no reason to panic.

The national currency exchange rate is supported by oil prices. Most likely, it will continue to move in the range of 57.70-58.50 rubles per dollar,” the expert says.

However, as analysts note, the future fate of the ruble will also depend on GDP data for the third quarter of 2017.

By the end of the year, in the absence of new positive news, it is possible that the exchange rate will fall to 60-62 rubles per dollar,” warns Mashchenko.

Dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia - will the USD fall and the ruble strengthen? What is the objective reality of what is happening, is it worth buying the dollar now?

The exchange rate of the national currency is, in fact, a reflection of the strength of the economy. Even if we ignore the devaluation of 1998, the ruble is 65 units weaker than the dollar. The Russian economy is 65 units weaker than the US economy. If we compare other indicators, Russia is everywhere much weaker than the United States - GDP per capita (RF - 48th place, USA - 9th), volume of GDP (RF 3565 versus 17419 for the USA), etc. If we compare the Russian economy with the economies of NATO countries, it turns out that less than 3% compete with 70%. Import substitution in Russia is catastrophically low - about 20-30%; in fact, we produce only part of the textiles and food products.

It is clear that during political squabbles, stronger Western countries, through economic sanctions, easily push through our national currency. Now, while the “lost” Buryats and “dismissed” GRU special forces are waging war on foreign territory, and the government, instead of saving production, is investing money in the military-industrial complex, which will not bring any added value, at the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 forecast in Russia there can be no positive prognosis. The Minsk agreements were only able to weaken the conflict, but they cannot stop it - the war is going on, sanctions are not being lifted, business in Russia is regressing.

The best scenario for the ruble is an end to the conflict in Ukraine, strengthening the Minsk agreements and negotiations that will ease the wave of sanctions. Then we can talk about a more or less stable dollar exchange rate of 55-58 rubles. But you need to understand that even in this situation, expert forecasts are far from rosy - the economy is driven below the plinth, it needs to be raised by the whole country. Under the USSR, the share of GDP in the world economy reached 11% - and this is thanks to the cult of labor. Today there is no work left - just leavened patriotism, a St. George's ribbon and the shaking of rusty weapons.

IS IT WORTH BUYING A DOLLAR?

Will the dollar rise in July 2017? There are no prerequisites for sudden growth, but there are a lot of prerequisites for gradual growth. There are practically no real factors for a strong decline, down another maximum of 5-7 rubles and then growth again. A correction is currently ongoing and will probably last until the end of summer. At most, the Central Bank will again drop the rate to 58-59 rubles, but since the reserves have already been replenished, there is no point in this operation. Therefore, it is reasonable to use the current stability to create your own foreign exchange reserves. The dollar is always growing in Russia. Because the US economy is always ahead of the Russian economy. Because Boeings fly in the sky, not TUs, we use American Windows, not Russian ones. Now, when our already miserable economy has been crushed by sanctions and lower oil prices, there are simply no prospects for strengthening the ruble. The monetary methods used by the Central Bank will last at most another 2-3 quarters.

Why will the ruble strengthen - if they start selling Armata to India? Or maybe Canada will buy our Urals with a plastic cabin?
The questions are rhetorical, as is the forecast for the dollar exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia, which shows only sad prospects. There are two ways here - either change the government, urgently creating a free economy according to Western principles, actively growing small and medium-sized businesses that will help the country survive when oil falls. Or return to a full-fledged cult of labor, slavery and dictatorship. Russia needs a push, an impulse, consolidation, work. And delusional patriotism, based on verbal diarrhea and increasing contributions to the military-industrial complex against the backdrop of a decreasing budget for healthcare, only drives the economy deeper.

So dollar rates for July 2017 are from 58 with a continued correction to 67. There are no plans for sharp jumps yet.