Leifer L. Collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters

L.A. Leifer

“Information support for real estate valuation work. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market"

Whatever approaches and methods are used when assessing property, the necessary reliability and reliability of the resulting assessment cannot be ensured without adequate market information. This undeniable fact has been repeatedly noted in the assessment literature and in international standards. Unlike a Western appraiser, who has many information and analytical services that supply him with the required information, a Russian appraiser is not provided with the required amount of information. If primary information can still be obtained from periodicals and Internet resources, then with integrated characteristics (generalized market characteristics, correction factors, etc.) resulting from the analysis and processing of primary information, and which are necessary in the process of assessment procedures, things are much better worse. The lack of the necessary standardized information, on the one hand, creates the basis for an unscrupulous appraiser to obtain any amount of market value. On the other hand, the lack of adequate information makes it impossible for a conscientious appraiser to provide objective and indisputable evidence of his assessments that would be convincing to his opponent. At the very least, a competent opponent in most reports, including those made by a conscientious and qualified appraiser, will find provisions that, given the lack of information, cannot be strictly substantiated. Therefore, the situation today in Russian valuation is close to a dead end, and if real measures are not taken now to create an information support system, then difficult times await appraisers.

^ Structure of information used by the appraiser

All information that is used in the assessment process can be divided into two groups:

Inside information, related to the subject of assessment. If real estate is being assessed, then this group includes data on its technical characteristics, condition, need for repairs, etc. For business, this is data on the financial activities of the company being assessed, the condition of assets, etc. The main problems in using this information lie in the field of accounting, which most often does not reflect the real state of affairs at the enterprise. These and other problems related to the quality of internal information will be resolved as we move towards greater transparency of companies, the introduction of management accounting budgeting, as well as the transition to more progressive forms of accounting reporting and, above all, to IFRS.

^ External information. As noted in international standards, all approaches result in market value if they are based on market data. Therefore, without information reflecting the situation on the market for such objects, the assessment of market value cannot be objective. In accordance with generally accepted methods, the appraiser works with both primary data, for example, with transaction prices of comparable objects, and with integrated market characteristics, for example, correction factors that ensure “reduction” of comparable objects to the valued one.

^ Primary information ( sales prices of comparable properties, rental rates, financial characteristics of specific companies, etc.) is the most important factor in the reliability and accuracy of the assessment. Problems with the use of such information are well known. Not only for transactions with real estate, but even for transactions with large companies, data is not published. Instead of information on the prices of completed transactions, the appraiser has at his disposal many sources, including Internet resources, where offer prices are published. Of course, such information does not provide a complete picture of market prices. However, recently, individual appraisers have been taking steps towards creating a database of real transaction prices. In particular, work has begun in Nizhny Novgorod to monitor real transactions. And, although at this time such a database does not yet fully satisfy the needs of real estate appraisers, we can assume that a start has been made, and soon the appraiser will be provided with good initial information.

^ Integrated information based on the results of processing primary information. It includes adjustment factors to “reconcile” data on comparable properties - adjustments for location, presence/absence of renovations, scale factor, adjustments for a limited market or low liquidity, the share of land in the cost of a single property, etc.

For a business, integrated information may include various multiples, average ratios between equity and debt capital, industry-specific profitability values, etc.

Unfortunately, the insufficient experience of Russian valuation and, to an even greater extent, insufficient attention to this problem have led to the fact that the Russian Appraiser does not have all the necessary integrated information. Under these conditions, he is forced to solve the problem of the lack of necessary information in his own ways, which, more often than not, do not withstand any criticism upon serious consideration.

Let us consider what options assessment practice provides for solving assessment issues in the absence of the necessary information.

“Simple” options for solving data shortages

The lack of necessary data that the Russian appraiser is constantly faced with, he often tries to compensate for with “simple” solutions to the problem. Below we consider the most common options, which, despite their obvious inconsistency, have become widespread in valuation practice.

Statements based on the subjective reasoning of the Appraiser.

An example of this type of “simple solutions” is the calculation of a discount rate based on a cumulative approach. As is known, the discount rate with this approach is calculated as the sum of the risk-free return and the sum of risk-related premiums. In this case, all components of premiums are usually accepted on the basis of general reasoning, from which the numerical values of the premium for various risks are “derived”. Obviously, with the help of an appropriate “justification”, you can easily obtain any value of the discount rate and, accordingly, the value of the market value. Note that the application of this approach by Western appraisers is based on numerous studies of factors influencing the numerical value of premiums. The results of such studies are widely covered in the open press and on the Internet. These publications make it possible to some extent (although not completely) to overcome the unreliability of the assessment due to the significant contribution of the subjective component in such a method. It is appropriate to note here that the subjective component is inevitably present to some extent in the assessment process. However, if it is decisive for the numerical value of the assessment, then there is no need to talk about the objectivity of such an assessment. It is obvious that an assessment based on the initial data obtained in this way provides ample opportunities for manipulating the result.

Even less convincing in the Valuation Report are statements like: “In the opinion of the appraiser, an adjustment factor should be introduced... (a numerical value is given)”, “based on research conducted by the appraiser, we will accept an amendment equal to...”. Even if such statements are preceded by qualitative reasoning about risk factors, such an assessment most often has nothing to do with the objective state, but reflects the desire of the appraiser to achieve a specific result. However, in fairness, we note that such assessments are most often not accepted by regulatory authorities and expert councils.

More convincing for regulatory authorities and expert councils is a reference to oral information received from specialists. For example, when calculating adjustments in real estate valuation within the framework of the comparative approach, a reference to a real estate company is often sufficient: “According to real estate companies, the adjustment factor is equal to...”. The indication of the telephone number and address of the real estate company makes it seem more convincing. It is difficult to understand why the opinion of realtors, who are not involved in market analytics and are in no way responsible for the outcome of the assessment, should be trusted more than the opinion of a specialist appraiser. However, an analysis of various reports shows that there are such “justifications” in the reports.

Coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources.

Outwardly, it seems more reasonable to use coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources. For example, when evaluating a business, calculating WACC requires a ratio characterizing the ratio of equity and borrowed funds. In well-known methodological developments of very respected companies, it is proposed to use coefficients from foreign sources. The values of discounts for lack of control and low liquidity when valuing shares are justified in a similar way. Of course, the data presented in articles, books, and on the websites of well-known news agencies are usually the result of real research and are trustworthy. But is it necessary to explain that today the Russian market is far from meeting the parameters of Western markets, and such parameters and coefficients do not reflect the realities of the Russian market.

Correction factors based on a small sample.

The paired sales method, which provides correction coefficients, has become widespread in valuation practice. If we exclude obviously incorrect methods of data processing, then the problem boils down to a large dispersion of the estimated coefficient. The fact is that price observations, even within a homogeneous sample, usually form a large scatter, due to the very statistical nature of prices on the market.

When using the paired sales method correctly, the appraiser generates sample values of adjustment coefficients representing the ratio of observations from two independent samples. In this case, the coefficient of variation (the standard deviation of the coefficients, expressed in relative units (percentage) relative to the average value) is approximately several times higher than the coefficient of variation for the primary sample. And the quasi-homogeneous sample formed after adjustments, used directly to estimate the market value, will be already in
times have a greater coefficient of variation than the corresponding homogeneous sample. Thus, on the one hand, the paired sales method allows you to expand the initial sample for evaluation, on the other hand, it increases the dispersion in it through the use of correction factors calculated with a large error.

This is especially true for market segments characterized by low liquidity; the dispersion of results is very large. In this case, assessing the market value of such objects with the calculation of correction factors based on a small sample leads to unacceptably large errors, and expanding the sample due to “adjusted” data in this case reduces the accuracy of the final assessment. These problems are largely eliminated if calculations of correction factors are performed on the basis of samples of sufficient size (50 - 100 values) and using special statistical analysis methods based on robust (i.e., resistant to interference) procedures.

Regression dependencies based on a small sample

As an example of this approach, consider constructing a regression dependence of the price of an object on a pricing factor (or several factors - multiple regression). For example, the influence of the scale factor or the factor of distance from the center when assessing commercial real estate. In general, this approach cannot raise objections. However, the influence of so-called latent (uncontrollable) factors leads to the inevitable blurring of such dependencies, which is reflected in the fact that the coefficient of determination (the well-known R-square) takes on fairly small values (0.2-0.5). The low value of the coefficient of determination in itself is not an obstacle to the use of correction factors. However, under these conditions, in order to provide statistically significant values of the regression dependence parameters (correction factors), sufficiently large volumes of initial data are required. It can be shown that the minimum required amount of price data for regression on 2-3 factors should be no less than 25. If price values for 5-10 objects are used, then the resulting corrections cannot be considered correct, which is easy to verify if you perform verification using statistical tests (for example, Student's test or F-square). In addition, the regression curves obtained in this way turn out to be very sensitive to individual sample values. That's why regression based on small amounts of data, like previous options, provides a basis for manipulating results against the backdrop of apparent legitimacy.

It is worth noting a very common misconception among estimators using multiple regression methods. Often, appraisers increase the number of pricing factors for regression parameters, mistakenly believing that this increases the accuracy of the assessment. This misconception is based on the well-known fact that as the dimension of the parameter space increases, the residuals on average decrease. This, however, does not indicate an increase in accuracy. Moreover, as shown in publications on regression analysis, an unjustified increase in the number of parameters (regressors) can lead to a decrease in accuracy.

Thus, the methods of processing small-volume statistical information (small sample) used in assessment practice, when seriously considered, raise serious objections and, most often, can be considered unreliable if a professional in the field of statistical assessment theory acts as an opponent.

Therefore, even the most conscientious and qualified appraiser, working in conditions of lack of information, is under the threat of recognizing the report as unreliable with all the ensuing consequences.

^ Breaking out of the information deadlock

The experience of Western countries, where assessment activities have existed for a long time, shows that the necessary information support for assessment activities is created within the framework of special analytical studies of specialized information and analytical agencies. Any appraiser has the opportunity to obtain all the parameters necessary for assessment that characterize the market.

Recently, various studies have appeared in Russian publications aimed at creating such support for the Russian market. and etc.). The continuation and development of such research, with the publication of integrated (summary) data in information sources accessible to appraisers, is the only real strategy for overcoming the information impasse and creating conditions for the implementation of an objective and civilized assessment.

The main source of information about the market is data on transactions or, in their absence, data on supply prices of objects. This data allows you to assess the state of the market, establish the influence of the value parameters of real estate on their value, see trends in the market and the expectations of participants. It should be immediately noted here that information on sales prices is a priority, and therefore we share the opinion of everyone who believes that collecting statistics, market monitoring, and all kinds of research into the influence of various parameters of real estate on their market value are necessary.

However, there is another source of market information. The fact is that the state, mood and expectations of the market are determined by the complex interaction of all market participants and, above all, sellers and buyers. The financial capabilities of the participants, their motivations in making decisions regarding the sale/purchase of real estate and, finally, their expectations are the driving force that determines prices on the market at the moment and their dynamics for the predictable future. Therefore, information obtained directly from market participants can help make correct judgments regarding the value of real estate, or at least understand how certain factors in people's minds affect their value. It is market participants who establish their attitude towards objects with different value characteristics, and in this sense, for example, the dependence of the market value of office space on the floor is a subjective value. At the same time, prices on the market are formed as a result of the interaction of the subjective opinions of many market participants. Therefore, market value reflects the collective opinion of market participants. Thus, specific characteristics of the real estate market are subjective in nature, since they reflect the opinions of individual subjects. On the other hand, these characteristics are the results of the interaction of a large number of such subjects, and therefore are objective in nature.

Ideally, a complete picture of the market could be recreated if it were possible to interview all market participants. Next, having all the information, you can determine some general characteristics that reflect the general state of the real estate market and all the required characteristics.

However, the practical implementation of the idea of collecting data directly from market participants faces fundamental difficulties on the way to its practical implementation. Therefore, one should look for ways to ensure its implementation in practice.

The first step in this direction is to replace the main market participants with specialists - appraisers who communicate with market participants, both through direct contact and through familiarization with proposals published in various media. Thus, each appraiser, based on personal knowledge and processing large amounts of information about the market, develops his own opinion, which he can formulate in the required form. Of course, all people have different abilities to process information. Therefore, people, even based on the same experience, have different judgments regarding certain parameters. In order to reduce the importance of the subjective component characteristic of each appraiser, we implemented a project to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market.

As part of this project, the opinions of appraisers regarding market parameters were collected, analyzed, processed and, in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment, collective expert assessments were formed on the parameters necessary for appraisers, reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and regions of the Russian Federation. Below is information on the implementation of the second stage of this project.

^ Brief information about the project to form collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters

Project participants

The problem of selecting experts to form a collective expert opinion is one of the most complex and responsible. During the first stage of the project, we invited professional real estate appraisers as experts. We proceeded from the fact that their experience in valuation work, constant study (monitoring) of the market and an analytical approach to the analysis of market processes allow us to best form an idea of the market parameters, and combining the opinions of various appraisers to level out the individual characteristics of each of them. It should be noted that during the discussion on the Labrate.ru portal, opinions were expressed that direct operators of the real estate market - employees of real estate companies - should be invited as experts. However, attempts to collect the necessary information on the real estate market convinced that realtors, fundamentally far from analytical work, are not ready to present a generalized opinion on the state of the real estate market. Moreover, without a vested interest in the results of such work, they will not provide the breadth of market coverage required for this type of research.

Thus, as in the first stage, professional Appraisers with practical experience in the field of property valuation participated as experts in the project. The experts were surveyed through a questionnaire with a standard set of questions. At the same time, however, the range of questions formulated in the questionnaire was significantly expanded compared to the first stage. We present comparative data on the main characteristics of the expert survey.

In total, 206 professional Appraisers from 55 cities of the Russian Federation took part in the project: From Kaliningrad to Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, from Novorossiysk to Murmansk, as well as cities of Ukraine (Kyiv, Sevastopol). Comparative data of the first and second stages are shown in the table.

Below is a list of cities for which at least 6 questionnaires were received.

No.	city	Number of experts
1	Volgograd	8
2	Vladimir	8
3	Volgograd	13
4	Voronezh	7
5	Kaliningrad	8
6	Moscow	10
7	Nizhny Novgorod	12
8	Omsk	18
9	Rostov-on-Don	10
10	Saint Petersburg	6
11	Tula	15
12	Cheboksary	11

A separate analysis of expert opinions was performed for all these cities.

One of the most important issues is the nature of the information collected. Depending on the questions posed in the questionnaire, experts can present information both in the form of point estimates and in the form of intervals.

Interval expert assessments are a new promising direction in the theory and practice of expert assessments, which is just beginning to develop. When using the method of interval expert assessments, instead of evaluating an indicator or characteristic of an object with a number, the expert indicates the interval in which the characteristic he is assessing is contained. As noted in the Report, carried out on the basis of more than twenty years of experience of the “Expert Assessments” commission of the Scientific Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences on the complex problem of “Cybernetics”, assessment by interval is more natural for an expert than assessment by number. Indeed, our experience of seminars in various cities, including a survey of students who at the same time served as experts, convinces us that, for example, indicating the range of forecast values for the expected rate of price growth is easier and more understandable for the Appraiser than indicating a single value of the required parameter. Therefore, we considered it appropriate, along with traditional schemes, to use the method of interval expert assessments. Here, however, it should be noted that the processing of such data is not limited to traditional statistical methods, but requires the use of special procedures for analyzing interval data, which have only recently begun to develop.

Features of the 2nd stage of the study

1. As experts, our survey, as in the first stage, included practicing Appraisers from among those who systematically become acquainted, primarily through Internet resources, with new developments in the field of assessment. Although the Appraisers themselves are not directly involved in transactions, it seems to us that, constantly working with Appraisal Orders, due to the analytical nature of such work, they are more capable of making generalizations about market processes than other market participants. The correctness and effectiveness of this choice was confirmed by the results of a survey during the implementation of the first stage of the project. Therefore, we considered it appropriate to maintain the principle of forming a group of experts and invited professional Appraisers to participate in the survey as experts.

2. 210 appraisers - representatives of 52 cities of the Russian Federation took part in the research of the second stage (at the first stage, 100 Appraisers from 31 cities), which made it possible to expand the geography of our research and get a more complete picture of the characteristics of the market throughout Russia. One of the goals of the study was to identify the dependence of the values of the estimated parameters on the characteristics of the subject of the Federation (number of cities and population income), since these characteristics are an important pricing factor. The volume of data obtained in the second stage made it possible to carry out such a study.

3. The form in which expert opinions are presented is fundamental. Having studied the experience of the first stage, we considered it necessary to abandon the traditional approach, when the survey process asks for point values of the required market characteristics. By limiting the expert to the requirement to indicate one value, we put him in a difficult position when he must choose one value from the set that he used on practice. Therefore, in the survey questionnaires for all three blocks of questions, it was proposed to indicate the interval in which, in the expert’s opinion, the parameter being determined should be located (for example, a discount on bargaining).

4. Since the initial data based on the results of the expert survey are interval values, data processing is carried out using, along with traditional, other procedures of interval analysis. In particular, an interval of values representing the intersection of the original intervals was used as the result of processing. In other words, the interval obtained in our study shows the range of values representing the intersection of the intervals proposed by each participant in the expert survey. If such an interval exists, then it can be considered as consensus, since it includes the opinion of all experts. However, since with 200 survey participants, the interval representing the intersection of all 200 intervals most often narrows to zero, we exclude some values. In a sense, obtained from an incomplete set of initial intervals, the resulting interval of values characterizes an approximate consensus. And the share of experts (the number of experts divided by the total number of survey participants, whose opinion is involved in the formation of the resulting interval), in a sense, can be considered as a probability. However, it should be understood that this interval is fundamentally different from the confidence interval, which is the area in which the value of the estimated parameter is located with a given probability (which in this case is called confidence).

5. Unlike processing at the first stage, primary data processing at the second stage was carried out according to the standard scheme for calculating point estimates and confidence intervals.

The results are currently being processed. The final materials will be published.

^ Bibliography:

V. A. Volnova, E. I. Khrapel, E. P. Balakina, appraisers of Siberian Appraiser LLC Determination of the market value of the rental rate of the premises of the property being assessed using the method of correction coefficients. Magazine: “Property Relations” No. 4 (55), 2006
Krivozubov S.P. Comparative approach. Collection of materials from the international congress of CIS appraisers “Mass and individual valuation of real estate for the purpose of seizure for state and municipal needs, cadastre formation and privatization”, Ufa, May 35=26, 2010.
Leifer L. A. Methods of using relevant information in individual and mass assessment (the problem of a small sample and heterogeneity of statistical data). Collection of materials from the international congress of CIS appraisers “Mass and individual valuation of real estate for the purpose of seizure for state and municipal needs, cadastre formation and privatization”, Ufa, May 35=26, 2010.
Anisimova I. N., Barinov N. P., Gribovsky S. V. Taking into account different types of price-forming factors in multivariate regression models for real estate valuation. “Evaluation Issues - No. 2, 2004.”
V. Misovets, Article Interfax-AKI, http://www.labrate.ru/.
Marchuk A.A. The use of expert opinion in determining the size of the bargaining discount, Professional scientific and practical journal “Evaluation Issues” - 2007, No. 1
Leifer L. A., Grishina M. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market, Register of Appraisers, No. 3, 2010

The Volga Center for Financial Consulting and Valuation invites professional appraisers to take part in the 2nd stage of the project to form collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters, necessary in the process of providing real estate valuation services. Within the framework of this project, it is expected to collect the opinions of appraisers regarding market parameters, analyze, process them in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment and form collective expert assessments on the parameters necessary for appraisers, reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and regions of the Russian Federation. Unlike the 1st stage, in accordance with the comments and suggestions made by the evaluators during the subsequent discussion of the results, at the 2nd stage the list of parameters is significantly expanded.

In this regard, I ask you to fill out the attached forms and send them electronically to: *****@***ru with the subject “expert survey” until November 15.

We express our gratitude to you in advance.

All Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data will be sent short Reports with the results of processing, which they can use in their assessment work.

Scientific director of the project

[Download survey forms]

Information support for the project on the Internet:

[Labraith Library. Ru] [ESMI ". Appraiser's Bulletin"] [Appraiser's Register] /

[Questions and discussion online]

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SECOND PHASE OF THE PROJECT

Today, the Russian Appraiser works in conditions of lack of information, and he is forced to compensate for this deficiency by including correction factors, forecast characteristics and other parameters of the real estate market, reflecting his personal point of view, in calculations for the assessment of real estate objects. The unjustifiably inflated subjective component introduced by the Appraiser into the assessment process casts doubt on the objectivity and reliability of the final assessment stated by the Appraiser in the assessment report. In order to to some extent overcome the difficulties arising from the lack of information, reduce the influence of the subjective factor on the result and promote the unity and comparability of assessment results, it is proposed to create a single set of such parameters that reflect the collective opinion of professional Appraisers working in different regions of the Russian Federation.

Objective of the project: Based on individual expert assessments of individual Appraisers, who, on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition, make personal judgments regarding correction factors, parameters of the real estate market at the current moment and in the foreseeable future, to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market, often used by Appraisers in the process of their assessment activities.

Project content. The basis of the work is to identify opinions regarding the market parameters of actively working Appraisers who perform the functions of experts in this project. To implement this project, a standardized questionnaire with questions was developed. Data processing includes checking the consistency of expert judgments and forming a group opinion based on statistical processing of expert information. Materials are processed by a group of analysts.

Brief results of the first stage. This stage is a logical continuation of the work performed at the first stage, in which more than 100 experts - professional Appraisers from 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation took part. Appraisers from Moscow, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen took the most active part. General conclusions based on the results of the expert survey, tables with data, the meaning and interpretation of the parameters being assessed and brief recommendations for their use are presented in electronic media and published in the journal “Register of the Appraiser”. In addition, the main results, presented in the form of tables, were sent to all Appraisers who took part in the survey (albeit with a delay, for which we deeply apologize).

We do not have precise data on how many Evaluators are currently using the results of this survey. However, based on requests to us and discussions in electronic media, we can conclude that these materials have found wide application and have proven useful to many Appraisers. Some comments were made, most of which boiled down to a proposal to expand the list of parameters being assessed. We have carefully reviewed the comments received and taken them into account as far as possible.

First refers to market characteristics that are difficult, and sometimes impossible, to determine by calculation based on market statistics. This primarily applies to the forecast parameters that the Appraiser includes in his calculations. At the same time, the project developers proceed from the fact that, of course, no one can know exactly how the market will actually develop in the future. But the market value of an object at the moment is determined by what the market “thinks” about it today. This means that in order to correctly assess the market value, the Appraiser needs to correctly “guess” the expectations of market participants regarding how rental rates will change and what the expected trajectory of real estate prices is in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the opinion of each Appraiser, who not only records the current state of prices on the market, but also influences them with his assessments, is extremely important for determining the general mood and expectations in the market. If there is a sufficient amount of information, it seems possible to obtain correct estimates of parameters that reflect the general ideas of market participants about its further development. Therefore, the table should include the personal expectations of the survey participant for the future development of the real estate market.

To the second group These are market characteristics that reflect investors' current ideas about the required profit, risks, etc. These characteristics are very important for determining the diagnostic rate, capitalization rate and profit of the entrepreneur. At the same time, for regions for which there is sufficient data (at least 8), such characteristics will be calculated separately.

Third group includes parameters that are used as adjustments within the comparative approach. These parameters are usually calculated by each Appraiser using the paired sales method. However, as a rule, the Appraiser does not have sufficient data, and therefore the adjustments he uses may not always be considered sufficiently convincing. At the same time, since in many cases such adjustments are not specific to the region, there is a fundamental possibility of combining them (generalizing) and obtaining more accurate estimates of the adjustment parameters that combine more complete information.

Processing expert survey data. The project involves the use of special data processing methods, including interval mathematics methods, since expert data is presented in the form of intervals. Please note that survey participants must indicate the minimum and maximum values of the parameters. Subsequent data processing presupposes the presence of such information.

Project implementation results. Based on the collected data, it is planned to prepare a Report with a detailed analysis of all information. This Report will contain the results of data processing using modern methods of mathematical statistics. The processing results will be presented in the form of tables, graphs, histograms, convenient for use in the process of evaluation and preparation of Reports. Brief reports with the results of processing will be sent to all Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data. Appraisers will be able to use the results presented in this Report in their assessment work.

Further development of the project. It is planned to conduct a periodic survey with the publication of a Report with the results of processing regularly, with an interval of 6-12 months. In addition, if this project is supported by a sufficient number of Appraisers, at subsequent stages the list of parameters will be supplemented with multipliers and other characteristics used in business assessment.

Features of the second stage of the project:

· Taking into account the comments and suggestions of Appraisers using the values of real estate market parameters published based on the results of the first stage, the list of parameters subject to survey has been expanded.

· Subject to an increase in the number of experts participating in the survey, it is expected to present collective expert assessments differentiated by region.

· Along with the publication of tables with the values of real estate market parameters, recommendations will be developed on how to use these data in the process of performing assessment work and preparing a report.

· Particular attention will be paid to the development of procedures to improve the accuracy of mass assessment based on the use of expert information.

Presentations

Artemenkov I.L. Changes in new international assessment standards regarding information and analytical support
Babenko R.V. Illustrations for the report “Evaluation support of productive agricultural lands”
Gribovsky S.IN. Problems of assessing cadastral value
Kornilov D.A. The problem of applying a comparative approach in assessing the market value of real estate for the purpose of seizure using the example of assessment for the conditions of the city of Sochi
Krapin A.V. The role of analytical and information agencies in shaping the real estate market
Leifer L.A. Collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters
Neiman E.I. Information and analytical support for the processes of individual and mass real estate assessment in connection with the adoption of the new edition of Federal Law No. 135 (Federal Law No. 167) regarding cadastral assessment
Roslov V.YU. Selection of appraisers for the purposes of cooperation with Sberbank of Russia OJSC
Sapozhnikov P.M. State cadastral valuation of land plots
Slutsky A.A. Information and methodological support for assessment for bank lending
Smolyak S. A. On mathematical support for cadastral value estimates
Sternik G.M. A unified research algorithm for market analysis, mass and individual valuation based on discrete spatial-parametric modeling of the real estate market
Fingert A.B. Application of the “Expert Choice” system in real estate valuation and investment analysis

Abstracts of reports

Gribovsky S.V.. Problems of implementing FSO No. 4
Leifer L.A. Information support for real estate valuation work. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market
Nosov S.I. State cadastral assessment of productive lands based on zoning and their classification
Smolyak S.A. On mathematical support for cadastral value estimates
Sternik G.M., Sternik S.G. A unified research algorithm for market analysis, mass and individual valuation based on discrete spatial-parametric modeling of the real estate market
Sternik S.G., Sternik G.M. Basic provisions of the methodology for collecting and processing information about the real estate market in the interests of valuation activities

Additional materials

Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Guidelines for the state cadastral valuation of agricultural lands (approved by order of the Ministry of Economic Development “On mathematical support for cadastral value estimates” No. 445 dated September 20, 2010)
Federal Agency for Real Estate Cadastre, FSUE Goszemkadastrsemka - VISKHAGI. Quality assessment and classification of lands according to their suitability for use in agriculture (practical guide)

Artemenkov I.L. Changes in new international assessment standards in terms of information and analytical support ppt, 79 KB
Babenko R.V. Illustrations for the report “Evaluation support of productive agricultural lands” pdf, 792 Kb
Gribovsky S.V. Problems of implementing FSO No. 4 doc, 55 Kb
Gribovsky S.V. Problems of assessing cadastral value ppt, 2 MB
Krapin A.V. The role of analytical and information agencies in shaping the real estate market ppt, 258 Kb
Leifer L.A. Information support for real estate assessment work. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market doc, 102 Kb
Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Guidelines for the state cadastral valuation of agricultural lands (approved by order of the Ministry of Economic Development “On mathematical support for cadastral value estimates” No. doc, 55 KB

"Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook" edited by Leifer Lev Abramovich, third edition, updated and expanded, in 2 volumes, 2014, set of two books.

The information presented in the third edition of the directory is based on materials from a survey of about 200 leading appraisers from 52 cities in Russia. The directory contains characteristics of the real estate market and adjustment factors used by appraisers when valuing real estate.
The directory is intended for use in the process of real estate valuation. It can also be useful to specialists involved in market research, students of economic specialties and specialists undergoing professional retraining in the specialty “Property Valuation”.
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· The problem of information support for real estate valuation work and ways to solve it.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Conceptual provisions.
· Project to create collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market - 2013.
· Additional comments in connection with questions that were often asked by the authors of the project.
· Presentation of statistical processing results and their interpretation.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Discounts for bargaining.
· Collective expert assessments of correction factors (adjustments). Short description.
· Low-class office and retail properties.
· Low-class production and warehouse facilities.
· Agricultural facilities.
· Class A and B business centers.
· Apartments.
· Residential buildings and cottages.

Volume 1:"Adjustment Factors for the Comparative Approach."
Publication cost - 1600 rubles. Book's contents:
Volume 2:"Market Characteristics and Forecasts for the Income Approach."
Publication cost - 900 rubles. Book's contents:
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The second volume of the Handbook contains updated information that can be used when implementing income approach methods in real estate valuation, including: data on operating expenses for various types of real estate, data on the degree of underutilization of real estate when leasing them, which may be useful when forecasting cash flows. Data are also provided on the profitability of real estate, gross rental multipliers, and the expected profit of an entrepreneur, which are usually used to determine the discount rate within the framework of the income approach. In addition, the Directory contains parameters characterizing the expectations of market participants regarding further price dynamics in various segments of the real estate market.
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