• Burenina Natalya Borisovna, Candidate of Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor
• Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadsky

• DONATION REGIONS
• FREE ECONOMIC ZONES
• DEPRESSIVE REGIONS
• BACKWARD REGIONS
• CRISIS REGIONS
• RECIPIENT REGIONS
• DONOR REGIONS

The work identified the most subsidized regions for 2016, identified the main problems of recipient regions, including crisis, backward and depressed regions. The rating of the 10 most subsidized regions of Russia for 2016, including the region of the Republic of Crimea, was analyzed. The donor regions that showed sustainable economic growth in 2016 are considered. The problems of subsidized regions are identified and ways to effectively manage regional economic security are determined. The project for the strategic development of Crimea was considered.

• Strategy for effective management of economic security of the Russian Federation
• Innovative activity of free economic zone organizations
• A mechanism for optimizing costs and results when planning enterprise activities
• Regulatory and legal regulation of issues of assessing the quality of provided state (municipal) services in Russia

All regions in the Russian Federation according to their socio-economic development can be divided into recipient regions And donor regions.

Recipient regions include: crisis regions, backward regions ( most of the republics of the North Caucasus, republics and autonomous districts of southern Siberia, the Republic of Mari El, the Republic of Kalmykia"), depressed regions.

In crisis regions indicators of socio-economic development are significantly worse than in the country. Located close to each other, the regions are crisis zones. In Russia, belts include: belt, belt, Ural belt, belt.

The problems of the belts are: decline in production, unemployment, standard of living, budgetary security, population level, military conflicts, number of migrants and refugees.

Backward regions.“Characteristic developments of the regions are: a state of stagnation, intensity of activity, a poorly diversified economic structure, weak scientific and technical potential, a developed sphere. The following regions belong to this category at the time: most of the republics of the Caucasus, and the districts of southern Siberia, the Republic of El, Kalmykia.”

"Depressed regions- these are territories that at the time had lower socio-economic development than the national average, but were developed and, in terms of indicators, leading in the country. Distinctivedepressed regions are: the level of scientific and technical potential, the share in the economy, the relative level of personnel. More often region goes intostate influenced reasons: a decrease in the competitiveness of products from government orders and a reduction in demand, mineral resource base, structural in the country.”

The degree of differentiation in the level of socio-economic development of Russian regions remains quite large. To overcome the lag of the regions and reach the Russian average indicators, as expert calculations show, it will take more than a hundred years.

Some territories of Russia belong to free economic zones or special economic zones: SEZ "Nakhodka", SEZ "Yantar" (Kaliningrad region), Kabardino-Balkaria, Dagestan, Crimea (for 25 years SEZ with possible extension). In Crimea, the SEZ statute came into force on January 1, 2015 and provides for some features of taxation in Crimea and Sevastopol, features of state control, entry, and functioning of the free economic zone.

An analysis of official documents on the website of the Russian Ministry of Finance gives a rating of the 10 most subsidized regions Russia for 2016 per billion rubles. (see table 1).

Source .

The definition of “subsidized region” must be treated with caution. The main thing here is not the availability of subsidies, but their percentage component in the regional budget. As of 2016 subsidy level Dagestan 70%, Chechnya 82%, Ingushetia 87%. Sevastopol is subsidized by 70%.

However, one should keep in mind the size of the territories of the republics and, accordingly, the number of subsidies in absolute terms. Based on this, Crimea receives funds from the federal budget more, than any of the Caucasian republics.

According to the "Development Program North Caucasus the Caucasian republics must achieve “self-sufficiency” by 2025. With Crimea, a similar program does not yet work; it will only be able to really work after the construction of the bridge by 2018. In the meantime, over the course of three years (2015, 2016, 2017), Crimea and Sevasopol will receive approximately 150 billion rubles. In addition to subsidies, of course, there will also be investment costs. Direct subsidies that do not have a specific purpose. The Crimean authorities can use them at their discretion. It is clear that most of the money will go towards social benefits, infrastructure construction and organizing summer holidays.”

In Crimea, which since January 1, 2015 has been a free economic zone for a period of 25 years, it is necessary to develop our own livestock farming, poultry farming, fisheries, crop production - everything that was practically destroyed over the many years that Crimea was in Ukraine. Crimea has always been especially famous for its winemaking, which can successfully compete not only in Russian markets, but also in world markets. Therefore, first of all, it is necessary to increase the vineyard area and expand the production of wine products. Crimea has every chance of becoming a self-sufficient region or even a donor region, but this will take several years and multi-billion dollar investments.

A project for the strategic development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030 has been developed, which notes that “the sectors of specialization of the Crimean economy are the medical, health and tourism complex, agriculture, food production, winemaking, fishing, production of inorganic chemical goods (soda, salt, titanium dioxide ), shipbuilding".

This project for the strategic development of Crimea provides that for the Republic of Crimea to fully enter the economic space of the Russian Federation, achieve the average Russian standard of living and outstrip it in certain areas, it is necessary to ensure an accelerated pace of socio-economic development of the region. At the moment, a significant share of investments in fixed capital in the Republic of Crimea comes from budget funds, and the predominant direction of investment is the elimination of bottlenecks in the region’s infrastructure. After the completion of the Federal Target 21 program “Socio-economic development of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol until 2020”, this source of capital investment will be reduced, and progressive development will be possible primarily through private investment. In addition to financial resources, the necessary factors for successful development are the development of innovative technologies and approaches, as well as the attraction and development of human resources. The scenario characterizing the socio-economic development of the region depends on the result of the competition of the Republic of Crimea for the listed factors.

Taking into account the priority of the development of the Republic of Crimea in the Russian Federation, the high expectations of the residents of the region and the readiness of the leadership of the Republic of Crimea to implement a proactive socio-economic policy, a combination of 2 scenarios is taken as the basis of the Strategy:

1. modernization scenario (period 2017-2020);
2. innovation scenario (in the period 2021-2030).

The main direction of the first stage of implementation of the Strategy is the solution of infrastructure restrictions at the expense of the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the formation of prerequisites for the subsequent expansion of sources of financing for infrastructure projects. It is planned that in the future Crimea will gradually emerge from foreign trade isolation, creating new transport and logistics chains, creating the most attractive conditions for investment compared to other regions of the Russian Federation.

At the second (2021-2026) and third (2027-2030) stages of the Strategy implementation, the Republic of Crimea plans to transition to the path of innovative development, which includes the following directions:

1. development and implementation of new technologies;
2. innovations in all spheres of life in the region, in all its sectors;
3. development of innovative approaches in education in the formation of a new generation of creative leaders-managers and a sustainable middle class;
4. effective development of the entire diversity of resources of the Republic of Crimea;
5. introduction of new living standards according to the concept “Live, work and relax in Crimea”.

As for donor regions, out of 85 regions of the Russian Federation, only 10 are donor regions. TO regions donors The following economically developed and financially independent regions include (see Table 2).

Table 2. Donor regions for 2016

Having compared tax collection in the regions of the country and the amount of federal subsidies, we come to the conclusion: despite the fact that the constituent entities of the Federation are increasing contributions to the treasury, everything still depends on the “oil needle”.

Almost half of the taxes collected are provided by only 3 regions of our country, the number of subjects receiving subsidies is 72 (data from the Realnoe Vremya portal)

At the same time, officials note an increase in tax revenues: at the end of 2017, the federal budget received almost 9 trillion rubles, which is 32% higher than in 2016. The indicators of 17 subjects worsened, while the year before last there were 32.

According to analysts, rising oil prices intervened in the situation, which allowed the largest taxpayers in Russia - oil companies - to increase their income.

Regions - "locomotives"

The leaders in terms of collections are traditionally the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (Yugra), the “patrimony” of Rosneft, Lukoil and Surgugneftegaz. At the end of 2017, the region transferred almost 2 trillion rubles to the federal budget, which is 37.4% more than in 2016. Ugra provided more than 22% of revenues from the constituent entities of the Federation. Moscow ranks second in terms of tax collection with 1.26 trillion rubles, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug takes third place (652 billion). Together, these three regions collected about 5 trillion into the treasury, which amounted to 57.3% of all taxes and fees.

The fourth place is occupied by St. Petersburg with 492 billion rubles, and in fifth place is Tatarstan, which has made a serious breakthrough, with 328.5 billion. The republic increased tax collections in 2017 by 43.2%. At the same time, the growth of gross regional product (GRP) in the republic amounted to 2.8%. The main positive contribution to the development of the region's economy was made by industry, agriculture and trade.

Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug. Photo: www.globallookpress.com

Debtor regions

It is worth noting that the situation with subjects where socio-economic conditions are far from ideal does not seem to be improving. Moreover, in January 2018, for the first time in Russia, external financial management was introduced in the Republic of Khakassia and the Kostroma region.

The debt of these two entities on loans from the federal budget exceeded 80% of the income they collect into their own treasury. In total, according to the Ministry of Finance, at the beginning of 2018, the state debt of Russian regions reached 2.5 trillion rubles.

In 2017, the volume of federal subsidies to equalize the budgetary provision of Khakassia amounted to almost 9 billion rubles, and the Kostroma region - 9.2 billion rubles.

In 2017, tax revenues decreased the most in the Republic of Tyva (-42%), Sakhalin (-33.2%), and Kemerovo regions (-40%). And the Arkhangelsk region reduced fees by 65%. In the “anti-leaders” - Transbaikalia: taxes “collapsed” by 96%. The region is facing debt restructuring and is facing external administration.

Pouring from empty to empty

The total volume of subsidies to the regions in 2017 increased by 100 billion rubles, provided, among other things... by income tax revenues from the constituent entities of the Federation.

Let us remind you that since last year this tax has been transferred to the federal level and distributed among those entities in need of support.

At the same time, there are only 13 regions in Russia that do not receive federal funding. Among them are the favorite business entities that have reserves of natural resources.

You can praise donor regions as much as you like, but this does not change the situation in regions with difficult economic situations. The top 5 most “expensive” regions for the budget do not change every year, and they account for more than a third of all subsidies.

Among the “lucky” ones this year is the Republic of Dagestan, which received more than 9% of all subsidies. In second place is Yakutia, with 44 billion rubles (an increase of 20%). The third largest subsidy is more than 39.3 billion rubles. will go to Kamchatka.

The number of regions that received a nice increase of 20% also included the Oryol, Yaroslavl, Bryansk, Ivanovo regions, Altai Territory, Kabardino-Balkaria and Sevastopol,”

Realnoe Vremya analysts note. Let us also note Chechnya, which will receive 27 billion rubles in 2018, which is 12.8% more than in 2017.

The Republic of Dagestan. Photo: www.globallookpress.com

The top five most subsidized subjects will receive 30% of all equalization subsidies in 2018, RBC calculated. And as analysts point out, the total volume of subsidies has been growing over the past six years.

To equalize budgetary security in 2018, 645.1 billion rubles will be allocated, which is 5% more than a year earlier. Let us note that, in this case, budget loans for regions have been completely cancelled.

In addition to the increase in subsidies, there was a redistribution between regions. Accordingly, for those regions where subsidies increased, the total increase amounted to 48 billion rubles. Both due to 30 billion rubles, by which the total amount increased, and due to 17.4 billion rubles, by which subsidies to other regions were reduced,”

Alexander Shurakov, an analyst at the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, explained.

Cancellation of loans and increase in minimum wage

By “transferring” subsidies from one “pot” to another, the authorities simultaneously declare their intention to abandon them altogether. True, economists do not quite understand how the government is going to do this, given the recent actions of the Cabinet of Ministers in this direction.

Member of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Vladimir Sysoev in an interview with Tsargrad, he stated that “a quarter of the regions are actually bankrupt regions.” “It is clear that this situation was, to some extent, created artificially, when the regions were simply driven into debt, forced to take out loans from commercial banks at very high rates, which reached 15-20% per annum,” explained the deputy of the Russian parliament.

The government is trying to launch new development incentives. For example, from May 1, 2018, the minimum wage (SMW) in Russia became equal to the subsistence level (11.16 thousand rubles), and this is certainly good news. The problem is, by what means will the growth of this value be ensured? Tsargrad has already noted that an additional 39.3 billion rubles will be required from the budgets for these purposes. At the same time, the federal budget will provide only 7.5 billion of this amount, and regional and municipal budgets — 31.8 billion

Taken together with the abolition of budget lending with a low rate (0.1% per annum) and the high level of regional public debt, this does not sound too optimistic.

Photo: www.globallookpress.com

The Ministry of Finance says that state banks will be able to lend to the constituent entities of the Federation, but the interest rate will be 8.75%. It is clear that the “subsidized” regions will not be able to bear such a load, but this is not so bad. As experts interviewed by TASS noted, an increase in the minimum wage may lead to a review of business plans for expenses and may even force them to lay off employees or transfer them to part-time work. At the same time, the tax burden and the ambitiousness of the tasks set for the regions are growing.

The authorities admit that the main threats to the country's economic security include the uneven spatial development of Russia and "increasing differentiation of regions and municipalities." Such formulations are contained in the Country's Security Strategy. True, it is still unclear at what level and by whose hands this problem is planned to be solved.

The 1% income tax was taken away. They gave me some money for good work. Thank you, of course. But this is only 30% of what was taken. Don't touch anything for five years! Let's finally get to work! At least I will understand how much income we will receive,"

The head of the Republic of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, stated at one of the economic conferences.

By the way, it was the economic growth of this Russian region and income tax deductions that ensured an increase in subsidies in undeveloped regions.

The income of the “strong” goes to the “weak” - both of them have no incentive to develop their own economy. Dead end? No, it’s time to reconsider the inter-budgetary relations between the federal center and the constituent entities. Otherwise, there will be stagnation, growth of regional and municipal debts, disincentive for the development of regions, and therefore the country as a whole.

In 2018, the majority of Russian regions continue to remain subsidized. Most often, subsidies to Russian regions are artificial, making it much easier for the central government to manage individual parts of the country. By taking the majority of taxes into the federal treasury, the federal government makes governors completely dependent. Regions are subsidized by the all-Russian treasury quite unevenly. The amount of the subsidy depends on how much money the region itself can earn. Subsidies to Russian regions in 2018 - principles of calculation, table of regions with the exact amount of subsidies.

How subsidies are distributed to Russian regions in 2018

The principles by which the federal government distributes subsidies to the regions change quite often. In 2018, the eleventh method of subsidizing regions is in effect.

However, the general essence does not change. The calculation of subsidies is based on the so-called financial security of the region per capita. The region's budget must include a certain minimum amount of funds for each resident.

The regional budget, relatively speaking, should not be less than an amount equal to the number of residents multiplied by a certain amount in rubles.

The amount of funds for each resident of the region varies for different republics or regions of the country. For example, in regions such as Kamchatka, Chukotka or Yakutia, the budget needs to include many times more funds for each resident simply because the cost of budget services that all residents of Russia receive is many times higher here.

In order to calculate the exact amount of subsidies for the region, the federal government calculates the approximate amount of funds that the region can collect for its benefit from local businesses and thereby fill its own budget. The funds missing to financial security per capita will constitute the amount of subsidies for the region.

The absolute majority of them are subsidized regions in Russia - 73 out of 85.

At the same time, subsidies are distributed very unevenly. Five regions receive 30% of all federal subsidies. These are Dagestan, Sakha Yakutia, Kamchatka and Altai territories, as well as the Chechen Republic.

13 regions will receive exactly half of all federal subsidies. That is, the same number as 60 other Russian federal subjects.

Only large industrial regions and republics like Tatarstan or the Sverdlovsk region, oil-producing regions like the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, as well as Moscow and St. Petersburg, which collect huge taxes from millions of residents and local businesses, are not included in the subsidized regions.

Photo: pxhere.com

Subsidies for the regions in 2018: to whom and how much

The following table contains the exact amounts of subsidies for specific Russian regions.

It is worth keeping in mind that the given figures are disingenuous in their own way and do not reflect all the nuances of the level of subsidies in a particular region. Thus, Dagestan always leads in this ranking, largely due to the high number of residents living here (more than three million people). However, the percentage of the budget formed through subsidies is not as high here as in Chechnya.

The Chechen Republic, although it ranks fifth in the ranking of subsidized regions, is the most dependent on subsidies. 84% of the republic's budget is formed from subsidies and other revenues from the federal treasury. The budget of the Republic of Crimea is formed from subsidies by 67%, although Crimea is “Only” in eighth place in the ranking.

Region of Russia	Amount of subsidies, billion rubles.
The Republic of Dagestan	59,07
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)	43,94
Kamchatka Krai	39,36
Altai region	27,13
Chechen Republic	27,08
Stavropol region	19,2
The Republic of Buryatia	18,3
Republic of Crimea	17,71
Republic of Bashkortostan	16,43
Tyva Republic	15,73
Rostov region	13,85
Kurgan region	13
Bryansk region	12,81
Transbaikal region	12,13
Ivanovo region	11,64
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	11,09
Kirov region	10,01
Chuvash Republic – Chuvashia	9,92
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug	9,77
Altai Republic	9,65
The Republic of Ingushetia	9,2
Karachay-Cherkess Republic	9,13
Tambov Region	9,11
Republic of North Ossetia–Alania	8,98
Arhangelsk region	8,82
Krasnodar region	8,74
Republic of Karelia	8,54
Primorsky Krai	8,52
Saratov region	8,5
Volgograd region	8,29
Chelyabinsk region	7,59
Kemerovo region	7,22
Voronezh region	7,01
Khabarovsk region	6,77
Penza region	6,68
Omsk region	6,58
Mari El Republic	6,03
Irkutsk region	5,85
Oryol Region	5,73
Vladimir region	5,58
Novosibirsk region	5,56
Magadan Region	4,98
Pskov region	4,29
Tomsk region	4,15
Tver region	4,08
Orenburg region	3,97
Nizhny Novgorod Region	3,93
Republic of Kalmykia	3,84
Republic of Adygea (Adygea)	3,8
Kursk region	3,77
Kostroma region	3,7
Udmurt republic	3,63
Amur region	3,6
Ryazan Oblast	3,47
Ulyanovsk region	3,35
Smolensk region	3,25
Krasnoyarsk region	3,19
The Republic of Khakassia	3,09
The Republic of Mordovia	2,76
Vologda Region	2,73
federal city of Sevastopol	2,6
Astrakhan region	2,42
Belgorod region	2,37
Perm region	2,19
Kaliningrad region	2,17
Jewish Autonomous Region	1,89
Tula region	1,85
Novgorod region	1,31
Lipetsk region	0,79
Yaroslavl region	0,69
Murmansk region	0,47
Komi Republic	0,3
Kaluga region	0,27
Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan)	0
Leningrad region	0
Moscow region	0
Samara Region	0
Sakhalin region	0
Sverdlovsk region	0
Tyumen region	0
federal city Moscow	0
federal city of St. Petersburg	0
Nenets Autonomous Okrug	0
Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra	0
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug	0

18:26 — REGNUM Once again, Tatarstan has the largest share of subsidies among other subjects of the federation in the amount of more than 2.2 billion rubles. The corresponding decree was signed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Kazan experts shared their opinions on the financial relations between the federal center and the republic.

“Tatarstan was allocated a large amount of subsidies due to large expenses on various large projects that are being implemented in the region,” Doctor of Economic Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Academy of Sciences of Tatarstan traditionally explains the decision of the Russian Prime Minister Vadim Khomenko. - In many other regions of Russia, similar Tatarstan ideas have not yet come close. Therefore, investment in a leading republic by the federal center seems logical. Tatarstan is seen by Moscow as a locomotive. Now in Tatarstan everything is going as planned. On the other hand, the question arises: what to do with other lagging regions, because now the gap between them and the advanced regions will increase even more. In Tatarstan there really is a place to invest money, but in most other regions of the country they cannot yet prove themselves as well. However, the problem of outsiders remains. After all, it may seem that it is necessary to help just those who are lagging behind. However, dependency in our country, apparently, is not supported here.”

“We must help the strong - this is the law of capitalism,” the doctor of economic sciences voices the most common point of view now among successful Tatar businessmen Ildar Ablaev, General Director of the ANO "Tatar Academy of Management of Innovative Economy". - If you are weak in the market, you die, and this is only your problem. No matter how cynical it may sound. We have already been building socialism for 70 years, and in the end the country collapsed. It is wrong to socialize losses. Tatarstan is a strong region, so it is absolutely right to invest money here. As for the financing of the North Caucasus republics, there is already a political aspect. In order for them to behave calmly, Moscow is forced to provide them with subsidies. This is really a kind of tribute after that very Chechen war. From a geopolitical point of view, the Caucasus cannot be lost. And Vladimir Putin understands this, which is why the President of the Russian Federation does not agree with the slogan “Stop feeding the Caucasus.” It’s better to feed and preserve the region.”

“Such subsidies are the result of the systematic work of Tatarstan lobbyists,” says Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Sergei Sergeev. Each representative of the republic in the State Duma of the Russian Federation is attached to certain departments and conducts their active work there, which is supervised by the top officials of the republic. What matters is not how much in reality, the work is well done, but the way it is presented to the authorities. The republican authorities know how to present the results of their work to the federal center in the best possible way. This is “efficiency” in quotes. Hence the various large injections of funds from Moscow into Tatarstan projects, for example, those "Recent funds for housing and communal services. Also one of the factors can be called the fact that Tatarstan is a national republic. But still, this point is not decisive."

70 federal subjects ended 2018 with a budget surplus

Subsidies to the regions from the federal center in 2018 for the first time exceeded 1 trillion rubles, Expert RA estimated. At the same time, subsidies provided a record surplus in the vast majority of regions

Photo: Ilya Pitalev / RIA Novosti

The volume of subsidies that the federal center issued to Russian regions in 2018 for the first time exceeded 1 trillion rubles, follows from data from the Ministry of Finance and calculations by the Expert RA agency (available from RBC).

How many subsidies did Russian regions receive?

The amount of subsidies provided reached 1.035 trillion rubles. A year earlier it was 759 billion rubles, and before that - 656 billion rubles. “A feature of 2018 is that all Russian regions received some kind of subsidies, including Moscow and the Tyumen region [the richest]. Moreover, Moscow with a volume of subsidies of 27.6 billion rubles. entered the top 7 regions in terms of the volume of subsidies received,” Alexander Shurakov, junior director of the corporate and sovereign ratings department at Expert RA, told RBC.

Almost half of the entire increase in subsidies in 2018 (136 billion out of 277 billion rubles) came from ensuring budget balance, which is managed “manually” in contrast to subsidies for equalizing budgetary security, calculated using a special formula, the analyst notes. By 60 billion rubles. compensation for the costs of increasing salaries of public sector employees has increased. Last year, the authorities introduced the minimum wage and the cost of living, and also continued to index the salaries of public sector employees according to the May 2012 decrees, and the burden of increasing the salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. in regional (not federal) institutions it fell, respectively, on the subjects.

“Receiving subsidies to equalize budgetary security is subject to a number of conditions: previously they were simply given, but now regions take on obligations, and highly subsidized regions take on even more obligations. Grants to ensure balance are a tool that is used during the year when the region declares some problems,” says Andrey Chernyavsky, leading expert at the Development Center Institute of the Higher School of Economics. “In previous years, there was a lot of politics in these transfers. We can assume that the same thing happened this year. This is similar to manual control mode,” the expert believes.

How does this affect budgets?

“At the end of 2018, 70 Russian regions had their consolidated budgets executed with a surplus, and the aggregate surplus amounted to 510 billion rubles. These are record figures for at least the last 17 years,” says Shurakov. For comparison: in 2017 in Russia there were only. The surplus of all regional budgets reached 510 billion rubles. against a deficit of 52 billion rubles. a year earlier.

If for the federal budget the surplus or deficit is assessed as a share of GDP for the year, then a different methodology applies to the regions: the surplus or deficit is compared with the volume of their own income (tax and non-tax revenues excluding assistance from the federal budget). The leaders in terms of surplus in 2018 were Dagestan (30.5% of income) and Sevastopol (27.4%), but this is largely due to the low level of self-sufficiency. The top five most surplus regions also included the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Kemerovo and Volgograd regions, whose level of independence is much higher.

The highest budget deficit was recorded in (24.5% of income), Khabarovsk Territory (10.8%) and Jewish Autonomous Region (6.9%).

“The situation is new. The volume of public debt, but at the same time it remained quite high for some regions. We live with a surplus, but at the same time we have large loans,” says Vladimir Klimanov, head of the department of state regulation of economics at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

At the same time, the increase in expenses for public sector salaries, which should grow in accordance with the May 2012 decrees, did not have a significant negative impact on regional budgets, points out Alexander Shurakov. “In general, the wage fund for May state employees, taking into account social contributions, increased by 532 billion rubles in 2018. But since part of these expenses “returns” to regional budgets in the form of personal income tax, the net increase in expenses for payroll and social contributions amounted to approximately 479 billion rubles,” he explains.

Investments decline ahead of new May decree

The record surplus in the regions was ensured not only by subsidies, but also by the authorities saving on budget investments. Their share in the expenditures of consolidated regional budgets in 2018 was only 10.8%. It was higher in 2015-2016, when the economy was in recession or stagnation, and also in 2017. In nominal terms, the regions did not reduce investments, but their expenses grew, which also reduced the share of investments in them, explains Shurakov.

“If the proportions of previous years had been maintained, the volume of budget investments would have been approximately 240 billion rubles. higher (and the budget surplus, accordingly, lower). The main direction of budget investments is investments in road infrastructure,” the analyst points out.

The load on the regions will increase due to the implementation of the new May decree of President Vladimir Putin. Of 25.7 trillion rubles. expenditures on national projects for regional budgets 4.9 trillion rubles. First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that these expenses will mainly be provided by federal transfers, and the regions themselves will receive 2-3% of expenses. In return, regions subscribe to KPIs for the implementation of national projects.

Now the regions have less and less freedom, and subsidies and subsidies are given under increasingly stringent conditions, says Andrei Chernyavsky. Regions are squeezed - they prefer to have a surplus budget and reduce debt as much as possible, he adds.