Debt hole for governors. RIA rating Regional debt burden rating

Review of the situation with debt in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Realnoe Vremya studied the situation with the size of public debt of Russian regions and found that Tatarstan is one of the most heavily indebted subjects of the federation. The maximum debt, however, is in the Krasnodar Territory, but the capital regions are trying to get rid of debt. St. Petersburg, for example, paid off half of its national debt over the past year.

The national debt began to slowly decrease

As a study by Realnoe Vremya showed, the public debt of Russian regions on average begins to decrease - for the first time in 10 years. True, at a very slow pace. In particular, according to data as of July 1, 2017, the volume of public internal debt of all constituent entities of Russia is 2.23 trillion rubles, and compared to the same period last year, this amount decreased by approximately 2% or 50 billion rubles.

The bulk of the debt comes from budget loans from other budgets of the Russian budget system. The regions have such debts - 48%, or approximately 1.06 trillion rubles. The second largest type of debt is loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations, just over a quarter of them (28%), amounting to 619 billion rubles. Another 20% (453 billion rubles) is accounted for by government securities. State guarantees account for 4% of regional debts, and other debts account for approximately 0.3%.

Let us note, however, that if we compare the indicators not of July with the same month of last year, but of January, then the state debt of the regions is growing. However, the most significant jump was recorded in 2013. By the way, these figures include debts only of the regions themselves; debts of municipalities are not included in them.

Price of the Olympics

The undisputed leader among Russian regions in terms of internal public debt is the Krasnodar Territory. Here the amount amounted to 143.3 billion rubles - this is one and a half times more than that of the region in second place. This amount is approximately equally distributed between budget loans from other budgets (60.2 billion rubles) and loans from credit organizations and international financial organizations (55.2 billion rubles). Another 22.6 billion rubles of Kuban's debt are government guarantees, and 5.3 billion rubles are government securities. The amount of debt is truly enormous - for comparison, all regions of the Ural Federal District owe “only” 137.9 billion rubles. At the same time, the Krasnodar Territory is trying to reduce its debt, but more slowly than many other regions of Russia - over the year it decreased by only 2.9%. What can I say, the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot.

Second place, with an amount of just under 100 billion rubles, is occupied by the Krasnoyarsk Territory. It is interesting that the structure of the debt itself differs significantly from the structure of the “leader”. The bulk of the savings here are not from loans from other budgets, but from government securities - they account for 56 billion rubles. Loans from other budgets amount to only 39.6 billion rubles, and loans from organizations amount to an insignificant amount of 4.3 billion rubles. Note that the Krasnoyarsk Territory is one of two regions in the top 5 in terms of the total amount of public debt, which, compared to last year, did not reduce, but increased this figure by 5.5%. This region, by the way, is not spoiled with sporting events, but Krasnoyarsk is preparing to host the Winter Universiade in 2019.

But Tatarstan closes the top three, with an indicator of 93.5 billion rubles. The republic also has a rather remarkable breakdown: there are no debts on government securities or loans from organizations. Almost 85 billion rubles come from budget loans (here Tatarstan is generally the undisputed leader), and 8.7 billion rubles come from state guarantees. Over the year, Tatarstan's public debt decreased, but not very significantly - by 2.9%. Let us remind you that Realnoe Vremya recently wrote that the Republic of Tatarstan is applying for the maximum period for restructuring budget debts after the subjects are unable to attract new loans from the federal budget and has already managed to partially restructure the debts for the 2015 World Cup.

The Krasnodar region is trying to reduce its debt, but more slowly than many other regions of Russia - the legacy of the Olympics is worth a lot. Photo ru.wikipedia.org

The fourth place and indicator, 1.4 billion rubles less than that of Tatarstan, is in the Moscow region. Here, debts mainly come from loans from organizations (47.8 billion rubles), government securities (25 billion rubles), and budget loans (19.3 billion rubles). Over the year, the Moscow region reduced the size of its debt by 6.6%.

Rounding out the top five is another region from the Volga region - the Samara region. The amount of state internal debt in the region is 75 billion rubles. It mainly consists of government securities (41 billion rubles), budget loans (22.6 billion rubles) and loans from organizations (11.4 billion rubles). The region has no debts under government guarantees at all. At the same time, it became the leader of the top 5 in terms of increase in the amount of debt over the year - here it grew by a total of 10.7 billion rubles. (16.7%), mainly due to debts on government securities (increase from 27.8 billion to 41 billion rubles).

Perhaps one of the motives for the recent resignation of the region’s governor, Nikolai Merkushkin, is related to the Samara region’s public debt indicator. On January 1, 2012 - the year when he headed the region - the state debt amounted to 33.4 billion rubles. A year later, the figure increased to 36.8 billion, by 2015 it reached 53 billion, by 2016 – 62.6 billion, and now, let us remind you, it is 75 billion rubles. Thus, during Merkushkin’s reign, the region’s public debt increased 2.3 times. However, it is, of course, impossible to directly link Merkushkin’s departure with an increase in public debt - there are many regions in Russia whose debt has grown higher over the past five years (for example, in the nearby Perm Territory - in general, almost 14 times).

Among the Volga regions, the leaders in terms of the amount of public internal debt are also the Nizhny Novgorod region (73 billion rubles), Udmurtia and the Saratov region (51.5 billion and 50.4 billion rubles, respectively), as well as Mordovia with 44.6 billion rubles. For comparison, in a region comparable to Tatarstan - the Republic of Bashkortostan - the amount of internal public debt as of July 2017 is only 23.6 billion rubles - three times less than in Tatarstan.

Let us note three more regions - the Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region. The latter two have no public debt at all, while Crimea has only 200 million rubles, all of which comes from budget loans.

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016	Change
Subject				state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total		Change
Krasnodar region	5.280.000,00	55.210.581,90	60.245.637,25	22.605.009,39	0,00
Krasnoyarsk region	55.663.000,00	4.320.353,60	39.642.440,19	237.304,99	3.234,73
Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan)	0,00	0,00	84.860.921,45	8.666.930,62	0,00
Moscow region	25.000.000,00	47.800.000,00	19.262.495,22	43.466,86	0,00
Samara Region	40.940.000,00	11.363.270,00	22.631.657,52	0,00	0,00

Top 5 by growth: depressed regions increase their debt burden

Over the past year (from July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017), the number of regions that reduced and increased their public debt turned out to be approximately equal. At the same time, five constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased their indicator by more than a quarter.

The undisputed leader here is the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the amount of state debt of which has increased one and a half times - from 7.9 to 12.4 billion rubles. This growth is mainly due to an increase in loans from credit institutions - a year earlier the figure was 2.4 billion, but now it is 9.7 billion rubles. But the previously main type of debt - budget loans - here, on the contrary, decreased from 5.1 to 2.3 billion rubles.

The second place in terms of growth of public debt is occupied by the Tyumen region - about 40%. A year earlier, the national debt was 1.34 billion rubles; now it has grown to 1.87 billion rubles. This growth is entirely due to an increase in the size of state guarantees - from 1.02 billion to 1.55 billion rubles.

The Jewish Autonomous Region has almost the same increase in public debt - by 39%. Over the year, it grew from 3.86 to 5.37 billion rubles. Here, both main types of debt in the region - loans from organizations and budget loans - increased by approximately the same share.

The fourth place in terms of growth - by 38% - belongs to the Kurgan region. Here the amount increased from 11.7 billion to 16.2 billion rubles. As in the case of the Jewish Autonomous Region, loans from both organizations and other budgets of Russia increased.

The Tambov region closes the top five, where the amount of debt increased by almost 28% - from 12.2 billion to 15.7 billion rubles. At the same time, the amount of loans from organizations in the region did not change, but the amount of budget loans increased (from 3.4 billion to 5.5 billion rubles), and government securities were added in the amount of 1.6 billion rubles.

Volume of public internal debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligation, thousand rubles. (height)

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016	Change
Subject	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total		Change
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic	0,00	9.740.280,00	2.333.444,47	368.783,90	0,00
Tyumen region	0,00	0,00	321.322,42	1.551.392,59	0,00
Jewish Autonomous Region	0,00	2.651.882,21	2.718.146,00	0,00	0,00
Kurgan region	0,00	10.909.162,60	5.289.559,84	0,00	0,00
Tambov Region	1.600.000,00	8.552.234,50	5.510.622,77	0,00	0,00

Top 5 for debt reduction: capitals are getting rid of loans

Among the regions that have reduced the size of their debts, five federal subjects can also be distinguished - their figures for the year decreased by more than a third. Almost all of these regions are rich and developed.

The size of liabilities decreased the most in St. Petersburg. Here the amount of debt was reduced by almost half - by 46%, from 14.7 billion to 7.9 billion rubles. The region completely repaid debts on government securities (they amounted to 5.9 billion rubles), and also reduced the amount of debt on budget loans - from 8.9 to 7.9 billion rubles.

The situation is similar with the Leningrad region - the amount of debt here decreased by 45%, from 9.5 billion to 5.2 billion rubles. Over the course of the year, the region completely repaid debts to organizations in the amount of 4.1 billion rubles, and halved its obligations under state guarantees (from 1.5 billion to 868 million). True, budget loans increased slightly (from 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion).

The third place in terms of debt reduction is in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Here the amount decreased by 39.5% - from 33.1 billion to 20 billion rubles. At the same time, it is curious that the region fully repaid state guarantees for 7.4 billion rubles and corporate loans for 25.7 billion rubles, but received obligations on government securities for 20 billion.

Volume of public internal debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligation, thousand rubles. (decrease)

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016	Change
Subject	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total		Change
Kamchatka Krai	0,00	0,00	3.317.332,94	0,00	0,00
Moscow	34.347.558,00	0,00	13.449.074,58	0,00	0,00
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug	20.000.000,00	0,00	0,00	4.480,65	0,00
Leningrad region	137.500,00	0,00	4.161.972,19	867.181,06	0,00
Saint Petersburg	0,00	0,00	7.904.680,00	0,00	0,00

The fourth place is near the capital of Russia, Moscow. Its public debt decreased by 39% - from 78.3 to 47.8 billion rubles. The city-region reduced debts on budget loans from 21.5 billion to 13.5 billion rubles, and on government securities - from 56.9 billion to 34.3 billion rubles.

The Kamchatka Territory closes the top five, having reduced the amount of debt by a third - from 5 billion to 3.3 billion rubles. The region completely repaid its debts to organizations (1.1 billion rubles) and reduced the amount of budget debts (from 3.9 billion to 3.3 billion rubles).

Volume of public internal debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, by type of debt obligation, thousand rubles.

Subject	As of July 1, 2017						As of July 1, 2016	Change
Subject	government securities	loans from credit institutions and international financial organizations	budget loans from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation	state guarantees	other debt obligations	Total		Change
Central Federal District	118.451.023,25	116.375.764,96	229.908.435,86	11.997.241,29	0,00
Belgorod region	17.925.000,00	4.662.500,00	10.654.014,09	10.988.845,28	0,00
Bryansk region	0,00	2.241.092,76	8.686.004,79	0,00	0,00
Vladimir region	0,00	0,00	3.258.246,77	0,00	0,00
Voronezh region	7.028.465,00	1.400.000,00	19.388.266,24	0,00	0,00
Ivanovo region	0,00	7.860.793,00	8.354.697,58	111.679,27	0,00
Kaluga region	0,00	0,00	30.207.622,45	492.567,27	0,00
Kostroma region	1.050.000,00	12.496.953,00	7.778.539,33	0,00	0,00

Maxim Matveev, analytical service of Realnoe Vremya

RIA Rating - March 2. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation at the end of 2016 increased by 1.5% and as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.353 trillion rubles. This is the smallest increase in government debt over the past few years. For comparison, in 2015 the state debt of the regions of the Russian Federation increased by 11%, in 2014 - by 20%, in 2013 - by 28.6%. The decrease in the growth rate of regional borrowing can be explained by the more conservative approach of regional authorities to increasing the debt burden on the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which is justified in the context of the continued unstable economic situation. In addition, according to experts from the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the media group MIA "Russia Today", a reduction of Moscow's public debt by 78.6 billion rubles, mainly due to the repayment of external debt, had a certain impact on the overall result. Just a year ago, Moscow was one of the leaders in terms of the absolute value of public debt among all Russian regions. At the beginning of 2017, the capital's public debt amounted to 61.9 billion rubles.

The volume of municipal public debt at the end of 2016 increased by 6.7% and amounted to 364.3 billion rubles. The total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the debt of municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.72 trillion rubles, which is 2.2% more than a year earlier.

A moderate increase in public debt took place against the backdrop of growing budget revenues of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At the end of 2016, the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased by 9.6%, while a decrease was recorded only in seven regions. Against this background, the volume of total expenditures of the budgets of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation increased by 5.6%.

More and more budget loans

In the structure of regional public debt, an increasing share falls on budget loans. In 2016, Russian regions actively replaced commercial debt with cheap budget loans. Due to this, the share of budget loans in the total public debt as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 42.1%, and the share of commercial loans accounted for 34.9%. At the end of 2015, the ratio was diametrically opposite. The activation of the debt market led to an increase in regional borrowing, which could not but affect the increase in the share of government securities in the debt structure from 18.7% at the end of 2015 to 19.4% at the end of 2016. The share of government guarantees decreased from 4.4% to 3.8% in 2016. Information on the structure of regional public debt is given in the table >>

In 14 regions there is no debt to commercial banks. With the exception of Moscow, the Tyumen region and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra, the main components of public debt in these regions are budget loans. Regions such as Moscow, Primorsky Krai and Kamchatka Krai have completely repaid their commercial debts over the past year. At the same time, in a number of regions there is a significant bias in the debt structure towards commercial loans, which may cause concern, especially if the region’s position in the debt burden rating is close to the bottom ten.

To determine the level of debt burden, experts from the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the MIA Rossiya Segodnya media group compiled a rating of constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the level of debt burden, which reflects the distribution of regional debts and their dynamics in 2016. The rating used data from the Federal Treasury and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on debt obligations and revenues of regional budgets. As a measure of debt burden, the rating used the ratio of the public debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2017 to tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget (own income) for 2016.

The debt burden on the budgets of Russian regions has decreased

The overall level of regional debt burden has decreased over the past year. The ratio of the total public debt of all regions as of January 1, 2017 to the total volume of tax and non-tax revenues for 2016 was 33.8%, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than a year earlier. But at the same time, the range of values in the regional context remains quite wide. The level of debt burden varied from 0% in the Sakhalin region and Sevastopol to 176% in the Republic of Mordovia. Compared to the results of last year, the leading and trailing regions in the ranking have not changed.

The Republic of Mordovia has been at the bottom of the ranking in terms of debt burden of Russian regions for several years now, but it is worth noting that positive changes are being observed here too. At the end of 2016, the level of debt burden decreased by 6.5 percentage points, which was due to a 15.7% increase in tax and non-tax revenues in the region. The public debt of the Republic of Mordovia itself increased by 11.6% due to budget loans and a bond issue worth 5 billion rubles, placed in September 2016.

The number of regions whose public debt exceeds their own income has decreased

In addition to the Republic of Mordovia, in seven more Russian regions the amount of public debt exceeds their own budget revenues, but, in comparison with 2015, their number has almost halved. As of January 1, 2016, there were 14 such regions. In addition, there are positive trends in this part of the rating: in five out of eight regions, the debt burden decreased over the past year, and in all cases this was due to the faster growth of tax and non-tax revenues compared to increase in government debt.

Judging by the debt structure, not everyone in the bottom group of regions took advantage of the opportunity to replace more expensive commercial loans with lending from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. If budget loans occupy more than half of the debt structure of the Smolensk region and the Republic of Karelia, and their share in 2016 increased to 58.8% and 51.7%, respectively, then in a number of regions there are structural distortions towards commercial loans. Thus, in the Astrakhan region the share of commercial loans is 50.5%, in the Kostroma region - 52.6%, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 61%, in the Republic of Mari El - 67.7%. In addition, in the Republic of Khakassia, almost half of the government debt (49.8%) is accounted for by bond issues and another 37.3% by commercial loans. The debt burden in Khakassia in 2016 increased by 28.7 percentage points and amounted to 145.5%. If the debt policy in the republic does not undergo any fundamental changes, then in the near future the Republic of Khakassia may displace the Republic of Mordovia from the position of the bottom region in the rating.

As of January 1, 2017, in 54 regions of the Russian Federation, public debt exceeded 50% of the volume of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which in 36 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, public debt exceeded 70% of their own revenues. Compared to the previous year, the number of regions in this group decreased slightly - as of January 1, 2016, in 57 regions of the Russian Federation, public debt exceeded 50% of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which the ratio of public debt to tax and non-tax revenues was more than 70% in 44 regions.

New regions emerged in the group of leaders

A low level of debt burden is still observed in nine Russian regions, but their composition has changed slightly compared to last year. Less than 10% of the volume of tax and non-tax budget revenues is public debt in the Tyumen region, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Altai Territory and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. The places that left the leading group of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Crimea were taken by the Leningrad Region and Primorsky Territory. There is no public debt in the Sakhalin region and Sevastopol. Five regions in the group managed to reduce their debt burden. In the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra and the Tyumen Region, the debt burden has increased.

In most regions of the Russian Federation, the debt burden has decreased

In 2016, the level of debt burden decreased in 63 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Positive trends are mainly associated with an increase in tax and non-tax revenues, but in some regions there is also a reduction in public debt. The leader in positive dynamics was the Republic of Ingushetia, whose debt burden decreased by 36.8 percentage points due to both a decrease in public debt by 26% and an increase in its own income by 9.4%. In addition, the debt burden decreased by more than 20 percentage points in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, the Vologda Region, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Altai Republic. In thirteen Russian regions, the debt burden decreased by 10-20%.

In 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the level of debt burden has increased, of which in six - by more than 10%. The Republic of Khakassia once again showed the most significant increase, increasing the debt burden by 28.7 percentage points. In addition, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug the debt burden increased by 25.2 percentage points and in the Astrakhan region - by 24.1 percentage points.

The volume of public debt increased in 49 regions of the Russian Federation

According to experts from the Rating Agency RIA Rating, in 2016 the absolute volume of public debt increased in 49 regions, remained unchanged in the Vladimir region, and decreased in 33 regions. In Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region there is still no public debt.

The leader in positive dynamics was Moscow, whose public debt, including due to the full repayment of commercial loans, decreased by 56%. In addition, the volume of public debt in the Leningrad Region and Kamchatka Territory decreased by more than 30%. The Republic of Crimea, where until recently there was almost no public debt, increased the volume of public debt 13 times in 2016. In the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the volume of public debt increased 3 times, and in the Tyumen region - by 83%. But the ratio of public debt to the volume of tax and non-tax revenues in these regions is far from risky levels.

The Krasnodar Territory is still the leader in the absolute value of public debt and over the past 2016 its volume increased by 3.3%, reaching 150 billion rubles. But due to an increase in tax and non-tax revenues by 15.4%, the level of the region’s debt burden decreased by 10.3 percentage points, and at the end of 2016 it amounted to 88.2%. In three more regions - the Republic of Tatarstan, the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Moscow Region - the volume of public debt exceeds 90 billion rubles, but the situation with the debt burden on regional budgets remains at an acceptable level.

In 2017, the growth rate of public debt will be low

Recently, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has increasingly heard calls for regions to more actively use bond loans, the servicing of which will cost the regions less than loans from commercial banks, and it is also said that budget loans are rather a temporary, anti-crisis measure that cannot exist permanently. basis. As confirmation of this, in the Federal Budget for 2017, only 200 billion rubles were reserved for budget lending compared to 338 billion rubles issued in 2016, and a further reduction can be expected. In addition, budget loans were issued for a period of 3 years, and this year the deadline for repayment of those loans that were received by the regions in 2014 in the amount of 230 billion rubles comes. Even taking into account the fact that the volume of subsidies intended in 2017 to equalize regional budgets has been increased by 100 billion rubles, the Ministry of Finance will not have enough money for everyone. At best, the current debt to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is refinanced using the budget reserve. Probably, due to the stabilization of financial markets, we can expect a surge in regional activity in the debt market and an increase in the share of government securities in the regional debt structure. Speaking about the absolute volume of debt, we can assume that in the context of expected weak economic growth, the conservative policy of regional authorities regarding borrowing will continue, and the overall situation with regional debts will continue to improve.

Experts from the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" expect an increase in the volume of public debt by 5-7% at the end of 2017, and tax and non-tax revenues of regional budgets within 10%. In this case, the debt burden will be 32-33%, and will not change significantly compared to the 2016 result.

RIA Rating is a universal rating agency of the media group MIA "Russia Today", specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of regions of the Russian Federation, the economic condition of companies, banks, economic sectors, countries. The main activities of the agency are: creating ratings of regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, securities, and other economic entities; comprehensive economic research in the financial, corporate and government sectors.

The public debt of Russian regions as of December 1, 2016 decreased compared to the beginning of the year by 110.2 billion rubles, or 4.8%. Izvestia was informed about this by the Accounts Chamber. At the same time, according to the joint venture, in the last month of the outgoing year this figure may increase slightly, but the debt of the subjects will be less than a year ago.

One of the reasons is the ongoing process of replacing commercial loans with budget ones. However, the regional debt situation remains serious, President Vladimir Putin noted during a press conference last Friday. Moreover, the debt is heterogeneous - for example, five entities violate the Budget Code, the head of state emphasized and promised that assistance would be provided to them. But this will rather be “first aid” - the problem must be solved by changing the interaction between the Ministry of Finance and entities with high debt.

The state helped

As Vladimir Putin noted at a press conference, regional debt is a serious issue. Indeed, the state debt of the regions was steadily approaching 2.5 trillion rubles at the beginning of this year. However, as the Accounts Chamber told Izvestia, as of December 1, 2016, the regions’ debt decreased by 110.2 billion rubles and amounted to 2.208 trillion rubles, which is almost 5% less than in January of the outgoing year. At the same time, however, an increase in the volume of debt obligations in January–November was observed in 34 regions.

The joint venture also notes the ongoing process of changing the structure of state debt of the subjects. Thus, this year the state again became their main creditor due to the replacement of commercial loans with budget ones at a symbolic one percent. 340 billion rubles were allocated for these purposes in the past year. That is why the amount of debt on budget loans increased compared to the beginning of the year by 185.2 billion rubles, or 22.9%, and amounted to 993.9 billion rubles (a share of more than 45%). An increase in budget debt occurred in 56 regions.

At the same time, the share of commercial loans decreased, which in the structure of public debt amounted to 30.8% as of December 1. Debt to credit institutions has decreased since the beginning of the year by 284.4 billion rubles (or 29.5%) and amounted to 681 billion rubles. However, the Accounts Chamber notes, “in a number of regions, the practice of borrowing does not have the proper consistency and predictability, which leads to facts of irrational attraction of bank loans. Thus, in 17 regions there is an increase in debt on commercial loans.”

According to the Accounts Chamber, as of January 1, 2017, that is, in December, the state debt of the regions will increase slightly, but will probably be less than in early 2016.

The joint venture cites the problem of unbalanced budgets of the regions as the main reason for the growth of regional public debt. Thus, the income of most of them does not cover the costs of previously accepted expenditure obligations, which leads to an increase in the number of regions that form their budgets with a deficit and increase their debt obligations.

The Accounts Chamber provides the following data to support this statement: as of December 20, 2016, the execution of consolidated budget revenues amounted to 9.247 trillion rubles, or 97.1% of the envisaged volumes. Execution of expenses for the past period amounted to 8975.2 billion rubles, or 85.4% of the stipulated volume.

As indicated in the joint venture, in January–November 2016, the share of debt on budget loans increased by 10.1 percentage points and this growth had a positive impact on the quality of the total debt portfolio of the subjects, reduced the burden of servicing debt obligations, but did not solve the problem of balancing regional budgets .

“The practice of using budget loans as a source of covering the current deficit and replacing commercial loans does not eliminate the emerging imbalance in the volume of actual income and accepted budget obligations and does not ensure stabilization of the situation,” the Accounts Chamber notes.

Subject to subject discord

According to the updated credit ratings of the National Rating Agency (NRA) from 83 regions (the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol were not assigned ratings due to the lack of the required amount of statistical information), the ratings of 33 entities were downgraded, 28 were upgraded and another 22 were confirmed.

The debt burden indicator is calculated as the ratio of the region's public debt as of October 1, 2016 to the regional budget's own revenues (tax and non-tax) for the past year (October 2015 - September 2016). In the Budget Code, the maximum value of this indicator is fixed at 100%, that is, the volume of a region’s public debt should not exceed the total annual volume of its own budget revenues. For highly subsidized regions (those are regions in which the share of subsidies for at least two of the last three years has been more than 40% of their own budget revenues), the maximum value of this indicator is 50%, the analyst explained.

He noted that a “negative” forecast was assigned to regions that have a combination of three conditions: public debt exceeds 100% of their own income, during the nine months of 2016 this debt increases, and there are also violations of budget legislation and (or) the terms of agreements on the provision of budget loans. These regions included the Republics of Mordovia, Khakassia, Mari El, Trans-Baikal Territory, as well as Smolensk, Pskov and Kirov regions. As the agency emphasizes, the listed regions may lose access to new budget and commercial borrowings.

The Ministry of Finance may indeed block access to inexpensive refinancing for violators of the Budget Code. However, as Alexander Pakhalov believes, the state will support regional authorities in terms of servicing their public debt, as well as provide assistance in exchange for stimulating the economy.

Indeed, at a press conference, Vladimir Putin noted that only five regions violated this principle (debt-to-income ratio of 50%. - Izvestia) and they need special support, and they also require special attention. He recalled that this year more than 300 billion rubles were allocated to “refinance these regions, collect their debts from commercial banks and refinance them for government loans, loans from the Ministry of Finance, which are issued for a long period at one percent, at a symbolic interest per annum " This work will continue further.

Next year we will also provide the necessary resources for these purposes,” the president promised.

It is known that in 2017 the government planned 200 billion rubles for this assistance.

Targeted approach

In addition, as noted in the Accounts Chamber, in 2017, in order to improve the situation with the balance of regional budgets, subsidies are provided to equalize the budgetary provision of the regions in the amount of 615 billion rubles (an increase of 100 billion rubles compared to 2016). In addition, a new principle has been established for the provision of subsidies on the basis of agreements concluded with the Russian Ministry of Finance on the conditions for their provision.

The main intrigue is what incentives will there be for governors when signing these agreements, says a leading NRA analyst.

“When providing budget loans in 2017 and concluding relevant agreements, it is advisable to consider the possibility of using a differentiated approach, taking into account the current situation with the debt burden and their real capabilities to fulfill the terms of the agreements,” the Accounts Chamber believes.

And only after the situation has stabilized, it is possible to develop approaches to restructuring or installment payments of subjects’ debt on previously issued budget loans with an extension of their repayment terms, providing for a phased, uniform repayment of the restructured debt while maintaining the amount of fees for using budget loans.

Chief analyst of FG BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov also believes that at this stage the solution to the problem largely depends on government assistance. In his opinion, if governors now begin to actively lay off civil servants to reduce costs, this will lead to an increase in unemployment.

It is obvious that the problem with these regions cannot be solved quickly in principle - after all, everything depends not only on production. It is difficult for them to be attractive for investment or tourism due to certain reasons - remoteness, unfavorable climate or ecology, the analyst believes.

Therefore, he emphasizes, the Ministry of Finance can take a tough position and reduce funding, but this will not solve the region’s problems.

Senior Director, Head of the ACRA Sovereign and Regional Ratings Group Andrey Piskunov believes that given the current economic situation, standardized measures for all entities will be ineffective. Targeted approaches to resolving the problems of each specific region are required.

One of the promising solutions to the problem of regional debts could be an agreement on partial refinancing of the region’s existing obligations on budget loans with a strict fixation of the share of regional debt, which must be repaid at the expense of the region itself. This will stimulate regional authorities to find sources of debt repayment and will introduce the practice of a responsible attitude towards their debts and debt policy,” Andrey Piskunov concluded.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation at the end of 2016 increased by 1.5% and as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.353 trillion rubles. This is the smallest increase in government debt over the past few years. For comparison, in 2015 the state debt of the regions of the Russian Federation increased by 11%, in 2014 - by 20%, in 2013 - by 28.6%. The decrease in the growth rate of regional borrowing can be explained by the more conservative approach of regional authorities to increasing the debt burden on the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which is justified in the context of the continued unstable economic situation. In addition, according to experts from the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" of the media group MIA "Russia Today", a reduction of Moscow's public debt by 78.6 billion rubles, mainly due to the repayment of external debt, had a certain impact on the overall result. Just a year ago, Moscow was one of the leaders in terms of the absolute value of public debt among all Russian regions. At the beginning of 2017, the capital's public debt amounted to 61.9 billion rubles.

More and more budget loans

The debt burden on the budgets of Russian regions has decreased

The number of regions whose public debt exceeds their own income has decreased

New regions emerged in the group of leaders

In most regions of the Russian Federation, the debt burden has decreased

In 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the level of debt burden has increased, of which in six – by more than 10%. The Republic of Khakassia once again showed the most significant increase, increasing the debt burden by 28.7 percentage points. In addition, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug the debt burden increased by 25.2 percentage points and in the Astrakhan region - by 24.1 percentage points.

The volume of public debt increased in 49 regions of the Russian Federation

In 2017, the growth rate of public debt will be low

A copy of someone else's materials

The number of Russian regions with a high level of debt burden has decreased to five, according to the NRA report. Mordovia set the record for the amount of debt in Russia

Photo: Alexey Filippov / RIA Novosti

The number of Russian regions located in the so-called red zone (the excess of public debt over the regional budget’s own revenues) decreased from eight to five over the year, according to a study by the National Rating Agency (available from RBC). Based on the results of 2017, this list of the most heavily indebted regions includes Mordovia, Khakassia, Kostroma region, Karelia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Mordovia retains its status as the largest debtor. Over the past year, the region’s debt problem has not only come no closer to being resolved, but has also become more complex, the NRA study notes. If at the end of 2016 the republic’s debt amounted to 176% of tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget, then on January 1, 2018 it exceeded 200%, which is an absolute record for the regions of Russia.

In two other problem regions with a high debt burden - Kostroma region (111.07%) and Khakassia (122.55%) - for the first time in recent history. This means that due to the large volume of accumulated debts, they will be able to spend money only under the control of the Federal Treasury. “In fact, this means the introduction of external management of the regional budget and public debt. In the coming year, this practice may be extended to other regions with high public debt,” notes the NRA.

The Ministry of Finance’s plans to use a special tool for regions whose debt will exceed the established parameters became known at the end of last year. Speaking in December in the State Duma, regions whose total debt obligations on budget loans provided since the beginning of the year amounted to over 80% of their own budget revenues will be transferred to treasury support.

Also, on January 1, a program for restructuring budget loans to the regions was launched. It will last seven years, during which time the budget will receive 55 billion rubles. In the first two years, the regions will need to pay only 5% of their debt each year, which, according to the president, will allow the regions to “rescue” 438 billion rubles.

At the same time, in 2017, the number of regions located in the “green zone” (public debt in the amount of less than 10% of the regional budget’s own revenues) increased from nine to eleven. Now they include the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Vladimir Region, the Republic of Crimea, St. Petersburg, Primorsky Territory, Leningrad Region, Altai Territory, Moscow, Tyumen Region, as well as Sevastopol and Sakhalin Region (in the last two regions there is no public debt at all).

Regions refuse help from banks

The total volume of public debt of Russian regions last year decreased slightly (by 1.6%) and amounted to 2.315 trillion rubles, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. In the structure of the total public debt of the regions, as of January 1, 2018, budget loans accounted for 43.64% of the total. A year earlier, this figure was 42.09%, according to the NRA study.

“The federal center continues its policy of providing regions with cheap budget loans, however, the volume of such financing is gradually decreasing and mainly weak regions can apply for it, while strong ones have to look for alternative sources of debt financing,” the agency writes.

As for bank loans (almost 667 billion rubles as of January 1), their share in the structure of regional public debt continues to decline (from 34.36 to 28.81% in 2017). The share of government debt securities, on the contrary, is growing (from 19.44 to 23.69%). According to the authors of the study, this trend indicates that issuing bonds rather than obtaining bank loans is becoming a more attractive option for the regions.

“Debt securities of Russian regions are in demand among investors (most of the bonds of Russian regions are traded above par value), and current market conditions make their placement more profitable compared to attracting loans from commercial banks,” the report says.

At the end of 2017, 52 entities reduced their public debt, as follows from the operational report of the Accounts Chamber on budget execution. The largest reduction in public debt was noted in the Chelyabinsk region and Moscow - by 1.8 times, the Leningrad region - by 1.6 times, Primorye - by 29.8%, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - by 25%.

An increase in public debt, according to the Accounts Chamber, was recorded in 31 regions. Among the “distinguished” regions, auditors name St. Petersburg - by 2.5 times, Kamchatka Territory - by 37.9%, Mordovia - by 24.3%, the Republic of Adygea - by 21.7%, Tula Region - by 18.7 %.

At the same time, as the department notes, the regions remain dependent on financial assistance from the federal budget. “The income of eight entities as of January 1, 2018 was more than 60% generated from gratuitous receipts from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation,” follows from the report. We are talking about Ingushetia, Chechnya, Tyva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Crimea, Karachay-Cherkessia and the Kaliningrad region.