Demographic analysis of the population. Analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation
Population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural population movement. To characterize the size and reproduction of the population, many demographic indicators are used, but the main ones are fertility rates, mortality rates (the number of births or deaths in 1 year per 1 thousand inhabitants) and natural increase. Their value is expressed in % (ppm), i.e. in thousandths.
The demographic structure determines the ratio of the population at different ages. Analysis of population changes in different age groups allows us to describe the dynamics of changes in the sex and age group, so that population growth in the next 45 years will almost entirely occur in economically less developed regions. Despite higher mortality rates in all age groups, the population of poor countries is growing faster because they have significantly higher birth rates. Currently, the average woman in poor countries gives birth to almost twice as many children (2.9 children) as in rich countries (1.6 children). The size of the population and the rate of its growth varied markedly among regions of the world.
According to UN experts, in 2000 the world population was 791 million people, of which 63.5% lived in Asia, 20.6% in Europe, 13.4% in Africa, 2.0% in Latin America, 0 each .3% in North America and Oceania. By 2009, the world's population had more than doubled, with the smallest population increases in Africa (25%) and Asia (90%). The population of North America grew the fastest. The population of Latin America, Oceania and Europe increased faster than the world population as a whole. The share of Europe's population has reached its highest level - almost 25% of the world's population. The share of the population of Africa and Asia, on the contrary, decreased (to 57.4% and 8.1%, respectively).
By 2010, the world population increased by 4.2 times compared to 2005. During this period, the populations of Latin America (8.0 times), Africa (7.7 times) and Oceania (6.1 times) increased the most. The population of Europe increased the least (1.8 times), as a result of which its share in the world population decreased to 10.7%. The share of Asia increased to 60.4% (note that this is, however, lower than in 1750), Africa - to 14.8%, Latin America - to 8.6%, North America - to 5.0 %, Oceania - up to 0.5% of the total world population. According to the average version of the 2010 revision forecast, by the middle of this century the world population will increase by 1.3 times. Africa's population will grow the fastest, increasing 2.1 times to account for almost 24% of the world's total population in 2050. Population growth in other regions of the world will be more moderate, and only Europe will have a smaller population in 2050 than in 2010. Population decline in Europe will begin in the 2020s, and by mid-century the growth rate could drop to -0.2% per year. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the value of the coefficient of natural increase has become negative, and the remaining overall growth is ensured by migration growth. The population growth rate of Asia and Latin America will approach zero.
The population of Oceania and North America will grow more rapidly in the 2030-2040s, partly due to fairly high migration growth. The overall population growth rate of North America will decrease in 2045-2050 to 0.5% per year, and the rate of natural increase to 0.2%, in Oceania - to 0.7% and 0.6% per year, respectively. In addition, migration growth, in addition to the direct impact on overall population growth, also has an indirect impact on it due to a rejuvenation of the age structure and an increase in the birth rate (if migrants are dominated by people from countries with a higher birth rate). Africa's population growth, despite the decline, will remain very high. According to the average forecast, the natural increase rate in this region will exceed 2% per year until 2025 and will not fall below 1.5% per year by the middle of the century. Half of the planet's population growth will occur in just nine countries. We list them in descending order of expected contribution: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, USA, Ethiopia and China. The only rich country on the list is the United States, where about a third of population growth is due to high levels of immigration.
On the contrary, the population of fifty countries, mostly economically developed ones, will decrease by 2050. It is expected that the population of Germany will decrease from 83 to 79 million people, Italy - from 58 to 51 million, Japan - from 128 to 112 million, Russia - from 143 to 112 million.
Subsequently, projections of billions more people in developing countries and an increase in the number of older people in all other countries, coupled with hopes for economic growth, especially for the world's poor, are raising concerns in some quarters about our Earth's ability to bear " human burden" now and in the future, the population of Russia will be slightly less than that of Japan. Countries of the world can be divided into 3 groups based on population density:
A very high population density for a single country can obviously be considered an indicator of over 200 people per 1 sq. km. For example - Belgium, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Israel, Lebanon, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Republic of Korea, Rwanda, El Salvador. The average density can be considered an indicator close to the world average (40 people per 1 sq. km.). For example, Ireland, Iraq, Cambodia, Malaysia, Morocco, Tunisia, Mexico, Ecuador. And finally, the lowest density indicator includes 2 people per 1 sq. km. This group includes Mongolia, Libya, Mauritania, Namibia, Guiana, Australia and Greenland (0.02 people/km2). There are different forecasts of the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia, both Russian and foreign, they are usually made in several versions, but even if we take only optimistic scenarios, they all assume a fairly moderate increase in the birth rate until 2025. And the most optimistic expectations do not imply achieving the current level The US birth rate is the only developed country where it is close to the level of simple generation replacement.
This also applies to the goal set in the recently adopted Concept of Demographic Policy, which does not envisage achieving the American level. In order for natural growth to turn from negative to positive or at least to zero, even the American level would not be enough now, given the peculiarities of the age structure of the Russian population.
But there is no complete confidence that the most optimistic scenarios for birth rate growth will be realized. Some additional danger and understatement is fraught with the official focus on achieving Russia’s population of 142 million people in 2015 and 145 million people in 2025. It brings calm where it would be better not to lose vigilance. It is possible to achieve the set goals, but only with large volumes of immigration. demographic population structural
Projections made even with the most optimistic assumptions regarding fertility and mortality clearly show this.
In order to stabilize the population, it is necessary to fully compensate for its natural decline: for this, say, in 2011-2015. it will be necessary to accept almost 1 million immigrants per year.
There are more moderate forecasts, which also take into account the possibility of reducing mortality and increasing the birth rate, but still do not guarantee full compensation for the natural population decline, and therefore its continuing decline.
They proceed, in particular, from the fact that the labor shortage will be approximately half covered by temporary migration, guest workers who are not immigrants in the strict sense of the word. But even partial compensation for natural loss, which, after a period of reduction, will begin to increase again, presupposes fairly large volumes of stationary immigration.
Analysis of population changes in different age groups allows us to describe the dynamics of changes in the sex and age group, so that population growth in the next 45 years will almost entirely occur in economically less developed regions.
Despite higher mortality rates in all age groups, the population of poor countries is growing faster because they have significantly higher birth rates.
Sources of population data. BASICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Sources of population data Definition of demographic analysis Absolute demographic indicators Population doubling period Equation of demographic balance Relative demographic indicators Indicators of the intensity and calendar of the demographic process
Two main sources: census and current accounting Demographic description of the population - two types Statistics of population movements Description of events in the population Population structure Census for Current accounting a certain moment (a certain period of time, year) Statistics of the state of the population
Population Censuses According to the UN Statistical Commission: “A population census is a unified process of collecting, compiling, assessing, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data about the population at a particular point in time.” The first modern census - 1846, Brussels ( under the leadership of A. Quetelet) On the recommendation of the UN since the 1960s. carried out in all countries of the world with an interval of 10 years; systematic observation; comparability across countries;
Scientific principles of the census 1. Universality (undercount up to 2%) 2. Critical moment (synchronicity) 3. Name: unit of observation - family or household, in it (in it) - information about each person 4. Unity of the census program 5. Principle of self-determination 6. Regularity 7. Respect for personal privacy 8. Centralization
Who is being rewritten? Categories of population Permanent population (living in a given place of residence for more than 1 year) (PN) Present population (NN) Temporarily absent - (VO) Temporarily present - (VP) NN=PN - VO + VP Legal population (attached) - regardless of location actual residence
Census program Demographic block of questions: – Date of birth or age – Place of birth – Gender – Marital status – Marital status – Information on migration Socio-economic block of questions: – Education – Employment – Religious affiliation – Nationality – Native (spoken) language – Sources of funds to existence, etc. Any issue of interest to the state may be included in the census
Population censuses in the Russian Empire, USSR, Russia 1. 2. 1897 (February 9). The first general population census. 1926 (Dec. 16-17). The first general population census in the USSR. Program 14 questions (26 volumes) 3. 1937 (January 6 - further until 2002 - January). Program 14 questions 4. 1939 Program 16 questions 5. 1959 Program 15 questions 6. 1970 Program 11 (+7) questions 7. 1979 Program 11 (+5) questions 8. 1989 Program 20 (+5) questions 9. 2002 (Oct 9). Program 22 (+16) questions 10. 2010 (October 14 -25). Program 25 (+12) questions
Census slogans: examples UK, 2001 “Count me in!” USA, 2000 “This is your future. Don't leave it empty! Russia: “Write yourself into the history of Russia” – 2002. “Everyone is important to Russia” – 2010.
Methods of conducting censuses Expeditionary By mail By telephone By Internet 2 years before the general census, a trial census is carried out to test the questionnaire and procedure
Population of Russia according to censuses Year Population (million people) Proportion of urban population (%) 1897 1926 1937 67.5 92, 7 104. 9 15 18 33 1939 1959 1970 1979 1989 2002 2010 108.4 117, 2 12 9, 9 137, 4 147, 1 145, 3 142, 9 33 52 62 69 73 73 73, 7
Current registration of vital statistics Regular collection of information about demographic events: births, deaths, marriages, divorces Why is current registration of vital statistics necessary? - Obtaining data on the constantly changing size and composition of the population - Legal registration of demographic events of legal significance
Sample surveys Actually demographic: WFS – World Fertility Survey VOC (Value of Children) DHS – Demographic & Health Survey FFS – Fertility Family Survey GGR – Generation & Gender Non-demographic, but containing demographic information: Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) (Russian Monitoring of Economic status and health - RLMS) European Values Survey (ESS) Luxembourg Income Study
Administrative sources Information about specific population groups that is collected by various organizations and stored in the form of lists, files, or databases. For example: military registration and enlistment offices, personnel departments of enterprises, police, migration service, voter lists, etc. Lists of students of the Faculty of Global Processes by year of admission.
Registers A named and regularly updated list of residents of a municipality/prefecture/country First in Sweden (1749). Nationwide registries exist in some countries of Northern and Western Europe: Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Great Britain, France. In the USA there are regional registries.
Registers Inclusion in the register: upon birth or entry into the country, a person is assigned a personal registration number; subsequently, personal information is entered. The register is complete information about the “demographic fate” of an individual, families and households. It is similar to population censuses if it covers the entire population. Countries that have national electronic population registers conduct population censuses according to an abbreviated program.
Example 1: Finland – 2000 Census. According to register data, answers to the questions on the census form were filled out in advance, and respondents corrected inaccuracies. Reducing census costs by 40 times and reducing census personnel from 2 thousand people to 20 people. Example 2: Germany 2010 - the use of federal state registers reduced census costs by 3 times. . In our country, even without using registers, 1 rewritten person spends 10 times less than in the USA
Accounting for migration is more complex than accounting for the natural movement of the population: identification of a migrant is difficult (selection criteria - length of stay); multiple moves – taking into account events, not people; problem of data comparability: accounting by different departments using different methods; weaker accounting of those leaving (emigrants); International migration: incomparability of definitions in international migration (migrant, emigrant, immigrant, foreign population); incomparability of accounting systems in different countries; illegal migration is not taken into account
Statistics and registration of international migrants Border statistics Administrative sources (issuance of visas, residence permits, work permits). Population registers/registers of foreigners (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Spain, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland) Censuses and sample surveys UN migration statistics are based on population census data (foreign-born population)
Demographic analysis is a mathematical/statistical procedure that measures changes in a population and the factors behind those changes. Analysis of the dynamics of numbers and age-sex structure Analysis of the dynamics of demographic processes Analysis of the interaction of the age-sex structure and demographic processes
Longitudinal analysis: pros and cons Advantages of longitudinal analysis: The ability to get an idea of the impact of changing living conditions on the dynamics of demographic processes Studying the actual sequence of demographic events in the lives of individuals, their totality, connections with socio-economic and political processes Disadvantages of longitudinal analysis: There is a risk of inaccuracies in retrospective analysis (events are forgotten, the chronology of events is confused) Some individuals will drop out of observation (death, emigration). Requires a large initial sample
Cross-sectional analysis - analysis of people of different ages living at the same time Demographic indicators calculated for a specific year depend on the characteristics of demographic processes in all simultaneously living real generations. These indicators reflect not so much the underlying trends in demographic processes, but rather the features of processes characteristic of a given calendar period (year )
Absolute demographic indicators S – absolute population size N – absolute number of births M – absolute number of deaths V+ (I) – absolute number of those who entered a given territory V - (E) – absolute number of those who left a given territory for certain ages: n. Sx – absolute population size in the age range from x to x+n 5 S 20 – population size at the age of 20 -24 years n. Nx – absolute number of births to mothers in the age interval from x to x+n 5 N 20 – absolute number of births to mothers in
Absolute population size. Population – the number of people living in a given territory at a certain point in time (or on a certain date)
Population by region of the world (million people, beginning of the year) Regions of the world 1900 2010 Whole world 1.630 6.067 6.909 Asia 948 3.684 4.167 Africa 110 800 1.033 Europe 290 582 733 Latin America 64 518 589 North America 81 306 351 Oceania 7 31 36
Ten most populated countries in the world Country 2010 Population (million people) Country 2050 Population (million people) China 1, 354 India 1, 628 India 1, 214 China 1, 437 USA 318 USA 420 Indonesia 232 Nigeria 299 Brazil 195 Pakistan 295 Pakistan 184 Indonesia 285 Bangladesh 164 Brazil 260 8. Russia 143 Bangladesh 231 Nigeria 138 DR Congo 183 Japan 127 Ethiopia 145
Absolute number of births, N (million people, 2010) (1) India 27,051 thousand (2) China 16,163 thousand (3) Nigeria 6,196 thousand (4) Pakistan 5,460 thousand (5) Indonesia 5 109 thousand (6) USA 4,329 thousand (7) Bangladesh 3,689 thousand (8) Brazil 3,230 thousand (9) Ethiopia 3,198 thousand (16) Russia 1,716 thousand
Absolute number of deaths, M (million people, 2010) (1) India 9,400 thousand (2) China 8,666 thousand (3) Nigeria 2,487 thousand (4) USA 2,289 thousand (5) Russia 2 085 thousand (6) Indonesia 1,533 thousand (7) Pakistan 1,266 thousand (8) Brazil 1,193 thousand (9) Japan 1,148 thousand (10) Bangladesh 1,119 thousand
Population doubling period “Population doubling period” is the time during which the original population will double. The shorter this period, the faster the population grows. Measures the rate of demographic growth by the time required to double the population while maintaining a given growth rate. If population growth is negative, then we are talking about the time it takes for the population to halve
Period of population doubling in regions of the world Developed countries - 1400 years, less developed countries - 79 years UAE - 11 years Eritrea (Africa) - 15 years Nigeria - 30 years China - 100 years, Europe - 1530 years Russia - 1500 years Whole world - 120 years
Demographic balance equation Population increases due to births and immigration Decreases due to deaths and emigration The difference between the number of births and deaths over a period is the natural increase (decrease) of the population The difference between immigration and emigration is the migration increase (decrease) of the population, or the balance of migration Natural increase and migration balance are components of population change.
DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE EQUATION S(t) - S(0)= (N – M) + (V+ – V-) (N – M) – component of natural increase (V+ – V-) – component of migration increase S(t) - S (0) – population growth over time period t
Components of population change Component of natural increase (N – M) Component of migration increase (V+ – V-)
Where is the birth rate higher? In China (16 million births annually) or in Norway (60.3 thousand births annually)?
Relative demographic indicators Indicators of the intensity of the demographic process Indicators of the demographic process calendar Probability coefficients Average age of occurrence of the event
The structure of any coefficient: Numerator – the number of demographic events in the population for a certain period of time (from current accounting data) – Number of births – Number of deaths – Number of people married, etc. Denominator – number of person-years lived by the population in which the events occurred these events, over the same period of time
Form of recording demographic indicators: x Population size of the age group (x, x+n) x+n Length of the age interval Age at the beginning of the age interval
The denominator of any coefficient is the average number of person-years of life. In a simplified form, it is calculated as the average annual population multiplied by the length of the calculation period
Calculation of general rates Crude birth rate: Crude death rate: ‰ - ppm (per thousand)
Why cannot absolute values be used to analyze demographic processes? Russia 1926 1996 Number of deaths, M 1920 thousand 2082 thousand Population, S 92.7 million 147.9 million 20.7‰ 14.2 ‰ Overall mortality rate, m
Where is the birth rate higher? China Norway 16 million 60.3 thousand 1,304 million 5002 thousand 12 ‰ 12‰ Number of births, N Population at mid-year, S Crude birth rate, n
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. OCR depends on: The share of women in the population, the share of women of childbearing age (reproductive age - 15 -49 years) among all women, the age structure of these women of childbearing age (higher birth rate 2035 years), the intensity of fertility in each marriage age group
Advantages and disadvantages of general coefficients + DO NOT DEPEND ON POPULATION SIZE Easy to calculate - advantage for lazy people!!! DEPEND SIGNIFICANTLY ON POPULATION STRUCTURE AND ARE THEREFORE UNSUITABLE FOR COMPARISON
Dispersion of values of general coefficients in the world n min max 8 ‰ Germany 9 ‰ Taiwan China) and developed countries -12 ‰ (14 ‰ Russia) 41 ‰ Congo 49 ‰ Mali 48 ‰ Niger m 2 ‰ UAE 2 ‰ Kuwait 5 ‰ Algeria 28 ‰ Lesotho 22 ‰ Angola 21 ‰ Afghanistan
SPECIAL FERTILITY RATE - depends on the structure of the denominator Average number of children born to a thousand women of reproductive age during period T
Infant mortality The ratio of children who died under the age of 1 year during a certain period to the number of live births. Measured in ppm
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (Total Fertility Rate.; TFR) – does not depend on the age structure TFR (TFR) is equal to the sum of age-specific fertility rates in all age intervals / 1000 Average number of children born to one woman during the reproductive period, subject to unchanged age indicators
FGOU VPO "ACADEMY OF CIVIL PROTECTION EMERCOM OF RUSSIA"
LIST OF QUESTIONS
certification test in discipline
"DEMOGRAPHY"
Speciality: “State and municipal administration”
KHIMKI - 2010
- Analysis of mortality trends.
- Analysis of fertility trends.
- Analysis of population migration.
- Modern urbanization.
- Methods for forecasting the size and structure of the population.
- Demographic policy.
for civil defense and emergency situations
and disaster relief
FGOU VPO "ACADEMY OF CIVIL PROTECTION"
TRAINING PROGRAM
BY DISCIPLINE
"DEMOGRAPHY"
KHIMKI – 2006
I. GOAL SETUP AND ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL INSTRUCTIONS
The program in the discipline "Demography" was developed in strict accordance with the requirements of the State Standard of Higher Professional Education and is intended to train students in the specialty "State and Municipal Administration".
Teaching the discipline “Demography” aims to equip cadets with knowledge of the theoretical foundations of demography, the history of the formation and development of demography as an independent social science, patterns of population reproduction and the use of human resources in emergency situations, and on this basis teach them to use the methods of demographic analysis and demographic forecasting when deciding specific tasks for state and municipal management in the field of protecting the population and maintaining the sustainable operation of national economic facilities.
As a result of studying the discipline, students must
Have an idea:
About the current demographic situation in the world;
On the development of the world population, its impact on the economy;
On the demographic policy of developed countries at the present stage;
On international cooperation in the field of demography.
Know:
Theoretical foundations and patterns of functioning of demographic processes;
Theoretical aspects of population studies, methodology for population studies;
The structure and main trends in the development of demographic processes in the world and the Russian Federation at the present stage;
A system of patterns of population development and the needs of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations in human resources;
Factors influencing the development of demographic potential in order to strengthen the security of the Russian Federation;
Methods for regulating natural and migration processes.
Be able to:
Know the methods of analyzing demographic processes;
Use the methods of demographic coefficients and demographic maps to analyze demographic processes;
Apply methods for forecasting the size and structure of the population for the demographic consequences of emergency situations;
Systematize and summarize demographic information, prepare certificates and reviews on various issues of professional activity.
The study of the discipline "Demography" is an integral part of the comprehensive training of specialists in state and municipal management and is based on the knowledge gained in the study of the discipline "Economic Theory", "Mathematics", "Statistics" and serves as the basis for the study of the disciplines "Management Theory", "Territorial Organization" population."
Studying the discipline contributes to the development of logical thinking in students, the formation of a scientific worldview, and provides the basis for substantiating and developing long-term plans for the development of the RSChS system.
The main forms of studying the discipline are lectures, seminars and independent work of students to study the topics covered.
The lectures are aimed at providing deep, systematized knowledge of the Demography course. During lectures, problem situations are created, and technical teaching aids and visual aids are widely used.
Seminars are held with the aim of discussing the main demographic problems, deepening and consolidating the knowledge gained at lectures and in the process of independent work on scientific and educational literature. Assignments for seminars are developed and given to students before the first classes on the topic of the seminar.
During school hours, students conduct independent work on the most important problems under the guidance of teachers. During independent work under the guidance of a teacher, students become familiar with methodological instructions on the topic of classes and study recommended literature.
During the course of studying the discipline, ongoing monitoring of the progress and quality of students’ training is carried out. The purpose of current control is:
Assessing the quality of students’ learning of educational material;
Determining difficulties in studying the discipline.
At the end of studying the discipline in the 8th semester, an exam is held on all problems contained in the program.
II. DISTRIBUTION OF STUDY TIME BY SEMESTER, TOPICS AND TYPES OF STUDY ACTIVITIES
| Numbers and name sections and topics | Total training hours | Including training sessions with a teacher | Of these, by type of training classes | Independent work of students |
|
| lectures | seminars |
||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| SEMESTER 7 |
|||||
| Section No. I. Introduction. Theoretical foundations of demography. | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Topic No. 1. Subject, method and content of the discipline “Demography”. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 2. History of the formation and development of demographic science | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Topic No. 3. Patterns of population development. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 4. System of population data sources. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 5. Population censuses. Publications of population data. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Section No. II. Analysis of demographic processes. | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| Topic No. 6. Number and composition of the population. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 4 |
| Topic No. 7. Methodological principles of demographic analysis. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Topic No. 8. Analysis of mortality trends. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 9. Movement of the family structure of the population and its forecasts. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 10. Analysis of fertility trends. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Section No. III. Population migration and urbanization. | 34 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Topic No. 11. Questions of theory and classification of migration movement. | 6 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Total per semester | 62 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 32 |
| SEMESTER 8 |
|||||
| Topic No. 12. Analysis of population migration. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 13. Modern patterns of world migration processes. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Topic No. 14. Modern Urbanization. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 15. Population reproduction methods of its analysis and modeling. | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Section IY. Population Policy. | 70 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 34 |
| Topic No. 16. Theory and methodology of demographic forecasting. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 17. Methods for forecasting population size and stricture. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Topic No. 18. Interrelation of economic and demographic processes. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 19. Development of the world population, its impact on the economy. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Topic No. 20. Demographic load of the active population. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 21. Demographic aspects of the formation of the labor market. | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Topic No. 22. Placement and mobility of population and labor resources. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 23. Current demographic situation. | 14 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Topic No. 24. Demographic policy. | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 |
| Topic No. 25. World public thought about population. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Exam | |||||
| Total per semester | 98 | 50 | 30 | 20 | 48 |
| Total by discipline | 160 | 80 | 52 | 28 | 80 |
Section No. I. Introduction. Theoretical foundations of demography
Topic No. 1. Subject, method and content of the discipline “Demography”
Main problems, structure and objectives of the discipline “Demography”. The role of the demographic factor in socio-economic development.
The subject and object of demography, various approaches to its definition. Demography is the main component of the system of scientific knowledge about population. Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of population reproduction. Family as an object of demography.
Demographic methods. Natural, biological and socio-economic factors determining demographic processes.
Types of population movement, basic concepts: population - population; natural reproduction of the population – reproduction of the population; cohorts - generation; demographic structures – demographic processes, etc.
Demography in the system of economic education, connection with statistics, sociology, social policy.
The importance of demography for economic practice in a market economy. The need for a regional approach in the study of demographic processes. Demographic factor in the functioning of the emergency response system.
Topic No. 2. History of the formation and development of demographic science
The formation of demography in the 17th – 19th centuries. Development of demography in Russia. Population statistics and demography. Population theory and the formation of a system of demographic sciences.
Structure of demographic sciences. Theoretical demography is a section of demography that develops the basic methodological principles for the analysis of demographic processes and phenomena, patterns of population reproduction.
The history of demographic science is an organic part of the history of science in general and the history of population studies in particular. Historical demography is a related field of historical and demographic sciences. The relationship of theoretical demography with the history of demography, historical demography, economic demography.
Methodology and special demographic sciences. Regional demographics. Applied demographic research.
Military demographics. The role of the demographic factor in modern wars and military conflicts.
Topic No. 3. Laws and patterns of population development
Socio-historical conditionality of demographic processes and phenomena. The laws of social development are the methodological basis of demographic processes. Economy and population. Population is the basis and subject of social production.
Historical features of population development. General and specific laws of development. The concept of a system of laws of population. The dependence of the manifestation of the laws of population on the specific historical type of society. The law of population by T. Malthus. The essence and content of K. Marx's law of population.
Patterns of natural population reproduction. Mortality and fertility, historical types of population reproduction. Population aging.
Patterns of family and household development. Family and society. The concept of "household".
Patterns of population settlement. Forms of population movement. The influence of military conflicts on population development. Population and global problems of our time.
Topic No. 4. System of population data sources
Goals and principles of accounting for demographic processes and phenomena. The main requirements for demographic information: reliability, systematicity, detail. Variety, quality and completeness. Main sources of population data: population censuses; current accounting of demographic phenomena; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various lists (registrations) of the population.
The main goals and principles of organizing current population accounting.
Topic No. 5. Population censuses. Population data publications
Censuses are one of the main sources of population data. The main differences between the population census and other forms of registration. Scientific principles of conducting censuses. Development of a unified program for conducting a population census throughout the country. The main differences between the population census in our country and abroad. Census sheet-document on the size and structure of the population and an information carrier for entering into a computer. Microcensus 1994 in Russia. The upcoming population census in the Russian Federation.
Interrelation of population data obtained from censuses and current records.
Publications of demographic data (national and international levels).
Section No. II. Analysis of demographic processes
Topic No. 6. Population size and composition
Population size, components of its change. Demographic balance equation. Population growth rates in regions of the world and Russia.
The concept of population structure. Types of structures. Indicators of population structure. Population structure by gender and age. Sex and age pyramids: types, construction and analysis. Trends in changes in the gender and age structure in regions of the world and Russia. Population structures by marital and family status. Urban and rural population. Ethnic structure. Socio-professional and educational structure.
Demographic structure of army personnel. Changes in the size and professional and technical composition of the armed forces.
Topic No. 7. Methodological principles of demographic analysis
General principles of demographic analysis. Statistical methods for analyzing demographic processes. Mathematical methods. Lexis grid.
Index method in demography. Demographic coefficients. General concept of demographic coefficients. General vital rates and migration rates: birth rate; mortality rate; rate of natural increase for the entire population. Age-specific demographic rates. Female fertility rate. Infant mortality rate. Standardized coefficients.
Demographic table method. Fertility table. Economic Activity Tables. Mortality table. Modal life expectancy and average life expectancy. Methods for constructing mortality tables. Analysis of mortality table indicators.
Topic No. 8. Mortality trend analysis
Demographic concept of mortality. Mortality trends in Russia and countries of the world. Two types of mortality.
General and special mortality rates.
Mortality tables. Application of mortality tables in economic analysis. Social progress and changes in the structure of mortality by causes of death. Factors and prospects for further growth in life expectancy. Development of mortality concepts in domestic and foreign demography. Theory of epidemiological transition.
Topic No. 9. Movement of the family structure of the population and its forecasts
Family as an object of demography. Demographic function of the family. Family as a unit of accounting. Demographic typology of families.
Dynamics of the family structure of the population. Dynamics of the number of families. Distribution of families by type and size. Marriage and family status. Composition of families and married couples. Children of families. The problem of interaction between generations in the family.
High population mobility and its impact on family formation. Family education. Marriage as a demographic process. Marriage rate of real generations. Marriage stability. Dependence of the demographic behavior of the younger generation on the demographic attitudes of the parents.
Demographic factors and consequences of divorce. Repeated marriages. Relationship between marital status and mortality.
Demographic development of the family. Unity of the components of population reproduction: marriage rate, termination of marriage, birth rate and mortality rate. Duration of married life and its demographic factors. Marriage termination table. Fragmentation of families. Separation table for young families.
Population mobility and its impact on demographic events - marriages and divorces, birth rates, population aging and deaths.
Characteristics and characteristics of a military family. Demographic analysis of marriage and family development.
Topic No. 10. Fertility Trend Analysis
Fertility and fertility. Natural fertility. General and special fertility rates. Indices of E. Cole, GMR Borisov. Modern trends and problems of fertility. Development of fertility concepts. Fertility models (Bongarts, Cole-Trussell, Easterlin, etc.) Microeconomic and macroeconomic approaches to the study of fertility. Application of fertility tables in demographic analysis.
Section No. III. Population migration and urbanization
Topic No. 11. Issues of theory and classification of migration
Movements
The concept of migration movement. Laws of migration. Modern classification of migration processes. Migration transition concept. Migration and economic development. External and internal migration.
Topic No. 12. Analysis of population migration
Demographic analysis and forecast of population migration. System of indicators of the volume and intensity of migration. Direct and indirect methods of accounting for migration processes. Features of accounting for international population migration. Migration table.
Topic No. 13. Modern patterns of world migration
Processes
The scale of modern world migrations. New centers of attraction and ejection of migrants. Qualitative changes in migration flows. Forced migration. Illegal immigration.
Migration policy in modern Russia, regional specifics. Integration of Russia through migration into the world economy.
Topic No. 14. Modern urbanization
The concept of urbanization. Dynamics of urban population. Factors of urbanization. Features of urbanization in various regions of the world, including Russia. Consequences of “over-urbanization” and economic development. Features of the functioning of RSChS in urbanization conditions.
Topic No. 15. Population reproduction methods of its analysis
And modeling
The general concept of population reproduction.
The structure of the population reproduction process: fertility, mortality. Migration, marriage rate, divorce rate.
Characteristics of the real generation. Quantitative and qualitative degree of generational turnover. The concept of the reproduction regime of the population as a whole. Population reproduction indicators. Parameters that determine the course of population reproduction. Types of reproduction of the population as a whole; expanded, narrowed and simple. Models of stationary, stable and quasi-stable populations.
Gross and net reproduction rates.
Migration and population reproduction. Using population models in demographic and economic research.
Section No. IV. Population policy
Topic No. 16. Theory and methodology of demographic forecasting
Methodological foundations and principles of demographic forecasting. Initial parameters of demographic forecast. Types and types of demographic forecasts. The problem of forecast accuracy. History of demographic forecasts. Some results of world and Russian population forecasts. Objectives and significance of future population estimates. Two groups of forecasts: forecasts for the population of the country as a whole and forecasts for the population of individual regions of the country. Forecasts short-term, medium-term and long-term. Taking into account the impact of migration in long-term calculations.
Topic No. 17. Methods for predicting abundance and stricture
Population
Cycle: natural movement - economy - migration - natural movement. Population doubling method. Methods for extrapolating and estimating the future total population. The method of movement in calculations for the future structure of the population.
Methods and principles for developing demographic forecast scenarios.
Topic No. 18. The relationship between economic and demographic
Processes
Assessment of the intensity and structural factors of demographic and economic development. Demographic structures and their relationship with economic development. Economic-damographic modeling.
Distribution of people by type of demographic behavior. Economic structure: by sector of employment; division of groups by income level; by the nature of the personal activity. Dividing people into those engaged primarily in mental and predominantly physical labor.
Topic No. 19. Development of the world population, its impact on the economy
Population in global development models. Dynamics of the world population, its regional features. Population explosion. Population growth and economic development. Demographic crisis. Population aging and its economic consequences.
Topic No. 20. Demographic load of the active population
The role of the demographic factor in the socio-economic life of society. Active population and population aging. Demographic forecast and demographic policy are two components of managing the demographic load of the active population.
The quality of the population as the most important component of economic development and quality of life.
Methods for economic and demographic forecasting of the active population. The economic activity table is a theoretical model of the relationship between groups of employed and unemployed population. Demographic passport. Demographic examination. Life potential, basic concepts and calculation methods. Full life potential and partial potential for a given age.
A Study of the "Economic Bibliography of the Average Man." Certain expenses for maintaining people of different ages. Working life expectancy tables, average life expectancy at working age. Analysis of the “ratio of income and expenses” and “cost of living” of different generations.
Factors determining the occurrence of relative overpopulation. Dependence of marriage and birth rates on booms and crises of production. Unemployment. Industrial reserve army of labor. Formation of the global labor market.
Demographic forecast of the armed forces' need for human resources. The need to prepare military-trained reserves.
Topic No. 21. Demographic aspects of the formation of the labor market
Demographic characteristics of the main elements of labor market development: labor force, labor resources, working-age population. Labor potential of a generation. Demographic aspects of supply and demand in the labor market.
The influence of migration on the formation and development of national, regional, international and global labor markets. Russia's entry into the global labor market.
Topic No. 22. Location and mobility of population and labor
Resources
Increasing the level of socio-economic development of the leading countries of the world and changing the distribution and mobility of the population and labor resources. Three forms of population movement: natural (processes of fertility, mortality, divorce); social and migration.
Topic No. 23. Current demographic situation
Modern socio-economic development and demographic processes in developed countries of the world. World population growth forecasts. Dynamics of the world population, its regional features.
Trends in mortality, marriage, fertility, population reproduction, migration in the modern world. Development of international cooperation in the field of population through the UN. Demographic characteristics of the main elements of labor market development: labor force, labor resources, working-age population. Demographic crisis: depopulation, aging population; their economic consequences.
Topic No. 24. Population policy
Demographic policy: definition, history, methods, effectiveness. Family policy. Regional demographic policy. The need for demographic examination in the implementation of socio-economic development programs.
Demographic policy of Russia at the present stage. Family policy. Regional demographic policy. International cooperation between Russia and the UN in the field of demography. The main directions for regulating demographic processes in Russia in a transition economy.
Topic No. 25. World public thought on population
The main directions of development of foreign demographic thought. Classification of modern demographic theories. Economic and demographic direction in demography (A. Sovi, T. Schultz, G. Becker, R. Easterlin, etc.). A systematic approach to the study of population (D.I. Valentey, B.Ts. Urlanis, A.Ya. Boyarsky, A.Ya. Kvasha and others). Demographic processes (fertility, migration) as investments in human capital.
Introduction
Being the largest city in Russia and throughout Europe, Moscow faces demographic problems typical of most megacities: high population density, low birth rate, population increase due to migration influx. According to Moscow City Statistics Service, as of January 1, 2014, the number of permanent residents of the Russian capital exceeded 12.1 million people, while the share of the rural population was only 1%.
Annual population growth due to migration from other regions of Russia and foreign countries remains high despite a decrease in the crisis year of 2014. However, it is not easy for the capital to cope with such a rate of population influx, increase in its density, and, consequently, a decrease in the quality of life. This is evidenced by a decrease in the proportion of indigenous residents of the city, an aging population, a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in the average age of childbirth and other adverse consequences.
The programs carried out by the Government of the Russian Federation aimed at increasing the population have had a beneficial effect on the central region: since 2011, there has been an increase in natural population growth and an increase in life expectancy.
The purpose of this work is to study the demographic situation in Moscow. To achieve the goal, the author set himself the following tasks:
- assess fertility rates and marital stability;
- study statistics on mortality and life expectancy of the population;
- assess migration processes in Moscow;
- propose possible ways to improve the demographic situation in the capital.
The work is structured as follows. The first chapter presents basic statistical data characterizing the current demographic situation in Moscow and identifying problematic aspects. The first paragraph of the first chapter describes natural demographic processes, namely: fertility, mortality and life expectancy. The second paragraph is devoted to the characteristics of migration processes in the metropolis. The second chapter proposes possible measures to improve the described demographic situation and solve the identified problems. D In conclusion, conclusions are presented about the demographic processes taking place in the capital and the proposed actions of the Government of the Russian Federation to solve these problems.
Chapter 1. Current demographic situation in Moscow
1.1. Natural processes
Fertility is one of the most significant demographic processes that determine demographic dynamics, namely, the rate of population reproduction.
For many years, Moscow, as a region of Central Russia, has been characterized by a low birth rate compared to the Russian average (11.3 births per 1000 population versus 13.3 Russian average in 2012). However, after a significant decline in the birth rate in the 1990s and reaching a minimum in 1999, its rates began to rise continuously. Since 2011, the capital has experienced positive natural population growth, associated with a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. The first fact is largely due to the implementation of Russian Government programs in 2006 and 2007 aimed at supporting the birth rate and strengthening the institution of the family; the second is an increase in life expectancy. Graphs 1 and 2 show the dynamics of these indicators for Moscow and Russia (see Appendix 1).
It should be noted that despite the general increase in the birth rate in Moscow and other cities of the Russian Federation, in the capital after 2009 there was no slowdown in the birth rate, which is typical for other cities. Thus, we can talk about maintaining consistently high birth rates relative to other regions.
Another characteristic of the capital region is the ambiguity in the estimate of the number of births. The fact is that children born to nonresident mothers are taken into account, but the mothers themselves, in relation to whom this statistical indicator is calculated, are not. As a result, birth rates are overestimated.
The values of the age-specific birth rate for Moscow are also specific. It represents the number of births per woman in a certain age group (each group is equal to four years) and reflects the age-sex composition of women of reproductive age.
Muscovites, like most other residents of Russian cities in 2004-2010, were characterized by a decrease in the number of children born to young women (15-24 years old) and an increase in the age-specific birth rate among women aged 25-49 years. Moreover, in this age group there is a clear maximum of the coefficient (see Chart 3, Appendix 2).
The peculiarity of Moscow is that despite the lower average values of fertility rates, for the age group of 35-44 years they are higher than the national average. That is, postponing births has become increasingly common in Moscow over the years. According to V.N. Arkhangelsk , this phenomenon may lead to a decline in the overall birth rate. There are several reasons for this:
- decreased likelihood of giving birth due to a shortening of the reproductive period;
- the use of abortion as a way to get rid of untimely pregnancy, which can lead to the inability to give birth;
- deterioration of health with age, especially among residents of megacities, who are more exposed to stress and unfavorable environmental conditions;
- a decrease in the desire to have a child among women who are accustomed to living independently, for whom a certain standard of living has already been formed;
- derogation in society of the importance of the institution of a full-fledged family as a consequence of postponing childbirth, which may negatively affect the birth rate in the future.
At the same time, a certain (this time positive) contribution to the increase in the average age of women in labor was made by federal assistance programs for families, providing additional subsidies for the birth of a second and subsequent children. Despite the fact that Moscow does not collect data on those born by birth order, the positive impact of federal programs can be evidenced by an increase in age-specific birth rates in groups over 25 years of age (which are characterized by the birth of more than their first child).
Positive trends are also evident in mortality and life expectancy rates for Muscovites. Since 1994, life expectancy for residents of the capital has been increasing. (see Table 1, Appendix 3) In addition, this indicator remained unchanged for men and increased slightly for women, even with a significant reduction for other Russians in the early 2000s.
At the same time, still low birth rates, a reduction in mortality and an increase in life expectancy lead to an increase in the average age of city residents, a reduction in the share of the working-age population (over 2010-2013, the share of the working-age population decreased by 1.5%) and, most importantly, his aging. The share of Muscovites aged 65 years and older is higher than the Russian average (12.9%). From graph 5 (see Appendix 4) it is clear that the percentage of elderly people in the metropolis continues to grow.
Based on the data presented in the table, we can draw an unpleasant conclusion: the burden of children on the working-age population is lower than in Russia, and for the elderly this figure is higher. Moreover, the burden from the latter has tended to increase since 2003, which leads to such negative consequences as an increased burden on the budget, an increase in transfer payments and the provision of medical services, and a reduction in the workforce.
1.2. Migration processes
Economic interests have been and remain one of the main reasons for migration. Possessing high economic potential, Moscow is the largest center of migrant influx in Russia. Thanks to this fact, the population of Moscow is growing at a high rate, despite low birth rates and negative natural growth until 2011. Thus, with zero and negative growth rates, the population of Moscow on average increases by 1 million people every ten years over the course of a century.
It is obvious that such population growth is ensured by the influx of migrants. Moreover, foreign immigrants account for 10% of all arrivals in the capital. Only a third of them are labor migrants. Therefore, a decrease in the influx of workers from abroad, due to an increase in the cost of a patent for work and a depreciation of the ruble exchange rate, is unlikely to significantly affect the total migration growth of the population of Moscow.
Census data from 1989-2010 indicate that in 2010, every second resident of the capital (aged 25-30 years) did not live in it in 1989. The high density and high rate of increase in the number of residents of the capital lead to the emergence of social problems and growing discontent among the indigenous population. A significant role in the formation of negative attitudes is played by the multinationality of our country and the formation of the multiethnicity of the capital over the decades with the influx of migrants from foreign countries and republics of our state. According to the 2002 census, after Russians, the predominant share of Moscow's population are Ukrainians, Tatars, or Armenians. In addition, representatives of 12 nationalities are present in the city in numbers ranging from 10 to 100 thousand people. In total, representatives of 168 nationalities live in the capital.
An urgent problem for Russia is the statistical recording of migrants. Thus, some unofficial sources say that the number of foreign migrants in Moscow reaches two million, but FMS data for 2013 number only one million. The bulk of illegal migrants are laborers. In this regard, special attention will be paid to the labor migration of foreign citizens.
The flow of temporary, and along with it, illegal labor migration is constantly increasing. It turns out that illegal workers occupy jobs, use public and medical (childbirth, for example) benefits of the capital, but do not pay taxes to the state budget. In addition, migration is one of the top three problems that influence the increase in crime. Thus, according to Moscow prosecutor Sergei Kudeneyev, in 2012, migrants committed every sixth crime in the metropolis, every third crime related to robbery and robbery.
The author is sure that government agencies and the media often deliberately focus attention on crimes committed by migrants in order to divert attention from more important public problems. But there is a certain truth in these facts. Illegal migration is a potential environment for the growth of corruption, provoking interethnic conflicts, and worsening the epidemiological and criminal situation in the metropolis. The fact is that a significant part of immigrants in Russia are uneducated people, among whom the crime rate is higher. Ignorance of the laws of the host country and national characteristics play a role (the kidnapping of underage brides is unacceptable in Russia, for example).
Uneducated migrants are economically of little benefit to Russia. If a migrant has received at least one course of higher education, not to mention knowledge of the Russian language, his potential usefulness for the metropolis increases significantly. And uneducated illegal migrants can cause real harm to welfare. To the above problems we can also add wage dumping in the sector of unskilled workers, an increase in the load on the city’s social infrastructure, which is not compensated from the federal budget (medical services, education, police control, fire services and much more), unhealthy competition in some market segments (illegal trade).
The main flow of migrants to Moscow comes from Uzbekistan (17.5% of all arrivals), Tajikistan (12.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (11.5%). Labor migration is becoming more culturally distant. Gradually, enclaves - migration areas - are formed. Migrants and the population develop mutual hostility. Thus, a survey in the Demoscopeweekly magazine suggests that Muscovites are most afraid of bandits and migrants, and migrants are most afraid of the police, skinheads and Muscovites.
But despite the existing problems, it is impossible to stop the influx of both Russian and foreign migrants. Migrants are the workforce, including skilled labor. A survey in one of the articles in the Demoskom magazine indicates that a third of Muscovites have used the services of foreign migrants in their households for three years. The use of migrant labor in households allows qualified Muscovites not to leave the labor market, but to shift care of the elderly, construction work, cleaning of living quarters and much more to migrants. It cannot be denied that, thanks to the influx of foreign migrants, the costs of construction work and improving the city’s infrastructure have decreased.
Chapter 2. Possible measures to improve the demographic situation in Moscow
Despite positive population growth in recent years and a reduction in mortality, the birth rate still remains at a critically low level. Government programs to increase the birth rate cannot be carried out forever, especially in the current situation when the state faces budget savings. In addition, even the number of children desired by families (less than two for all age groups of women giving birth) is not enough for a stable increase in the number of the indigenous population of the capital and a change in demographic dynamics. In this case, it is important to influence not only economic, but also psychological aspects. Competent campaigning and promotion of the cult of family and children are needed to provoke among the population a desire to have more children. It is necessary to change the values of society so that a large number of children raised by families becomes a source of pride.
It is also important to support low-income families with a large potential number of births, but little material opportunity for this. We are talking about visitors who have been living in Moscow for a long period of time (10 years, for example), but have not yet managed to settle down. As mentioned above, newcomers usually give birth to more children. Among the possible measures, loans for the purchase of housing with special repayment options subject to the birth of children, an extension of paid leave in the amount of the minimum subsistence level, or the opening of kindergartens with preferential payment terms could have a positive effect.
The problem of increasing the average age of women in labor deserves special attention. Of course, this trend is understandable: Muscovites prefer to get an education, arrange their lives in a metropolis, and only then have children. But further increase in the age of women in labor can lead to critical consequences. In this regard, it is important to pay attention at the public level to the importance of the health status of a young mother, to cultivate the fashion of a strong family, to further protect the rights of women who have given birth (control over maintaining a job after leaving maternity leave, increased supervision over the payment of child support in the event of a divorce of parents and etc.).
In the context of an aging population, difficulties and high costs in the way of population reproduction, migration seems to be a simple and convenient way to increase the composition of the labor force and reduce the burden on the state budget. But to have a positive effect, migration must be strictly controlled by government agencies.
Only legal migration on a limited scale can have a beneficial economic impact on a metropolis without leading to an aggravation of intercultural and interethnic problems. To do this, some experts suggest taking the following measures:
- a thorough study of the characteristics of migration to Moscow, including the goals, motives, duration and frequency of stay of different groups of migrants, the problems of adaptation and integration into society that they face;
- providing assistance to migrants in the process of adaptation to society, especially for ethnic migrants;
- informing migrants about their rights and responsibilities, providing them with accessible and legal means of employment and registration of their stay;
- increasing the level of qualifications of specialists in the field of migrant registration to obtain adequate information on labor migration in the metropolis
Conclusion
This article examined the main aspects of the demographic situation in the metropolitan metropolis: birth rate, age structure of birth rate, mortality, natural increase, life expectancy, demographic burden on the working population, migration indicators, the main countries “supplying” labor migrants to Moscow, existing in Moscow problems associated with population growth due to migration.
An analytical review of statistical data allows us to conclude that the birth rate in Moscow is characterized by an increase in its intensity, a positive natural increase and an increase in the average age of women giving birth. Thanks to the high standard of living and quality medical care, the mortality rate in the capital is lower, and life expectancy is higher than similar indicators in other cities and the Russian average. In addition, Moscow is characterized by a high proportion of elderly population, and it is increasing every year. Migration policy is characterized by significant problems in statistically recording migrants, which leads to an increase in the flow of illegal migrants, mainly from the former Soviet republics.
The possible measures presented in the second chapter to improve the current demographic situation and solve pressing problems in the metropolis are to some extent idealized. Of course, not all of these measures can be implemented in a short time. In order to see the real effect of the measures taken by the Government in the field of demography, a lot of time must pass. Therefore, to really solve the problem, you need to think globally, for the future. But one thing is clear: increased government intervention in solving demographic problems is necessary.
Annex 1
Schedule 1. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, people, Moscow
Schedule 2. Number of births (excluding stillbirths) per year, people, Russian Federation
Appendix 2
Schedule 3. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births on average per year per 1000 women aged, years), ppm, Moscow, urban population
Schedule 4. Age-specific fertility rates (number of births on average per year per 1000 women of age, years), ppm,
Russian Federation, urban population
Appendix 3
Table 1. Life expectancy at birth, years, year, Russian Federation, Moscow, men and women.
|
1990 |
1992 |
1994 |
1996 |
1998 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
| Men, Russia |
63,7 |
61,9 |
57,4 |
59,6 |
61,2 |
58,7 |
58,9 |
60,4 |
61,9 |
63,1 |
64,56 |
65,13 |
|
| Men, MSK |
64,8 |
63,4 |
57,7 |
62,4 |
64,8 |
64,6 |
64,9 |
65,9 |
67,3 |
68,7 |
69,9 |
71,6 |
72,31 |
| Women, Russian Federation |
74,3 |
73,7 |
71,1 |
72,4 |
73,1 |
72,3 |
71,9 |
72,4 |
73,3 |
74,3 |
74,9 |
75,86 |
76,3 |
| Women, MSK |
73,9 |
71,5 |
73,8 |
74,6 |
74,8 |
75,8 |
76,9 |
77,8 |
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