The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has officially confirmed that it is ready to include the Chinese yuan in its basket of reserve currencies (on their basis, the fund forms its own unit of account - the so-called special drawing rights).

This year, the yuan took fourth place in the ranking of the world's most commonly used currencies in international transactions, surpassing the Japanese yen for the first time in history.

Valentin Katasonov

I don't really understand why it is fundamentally important for China to have the yuan as a reserve currency. After all, if China is going to compete with the American dollar, then this means restructuring not only the economic, but also the political system. In fact, Beijing must agree that the country will undergo deindustrialization, because a reserve currency means that the country is sacrificing its real economy. This is understandable to specialists, because a national currency cannot simultaneously serve the domestic and global economies; one cannot sit on two chairs.

I see only one reason for the Chinese - simply to increase their authority in the IMF. This authority will allow them to finally force the US to vote on the 2010 decision, which was made by the IMF board of directors. Then they voted for the 14th quota adjustment. The 14th quota adjustment provided for: a) increasing the share of China and many other countries on the periphery of world capitalism in the capital and votes of the IMF fund; b) provided for doubling the fund’s capital; c) provided for a discussion of the issue of revising the formula itself so that it would more fairly and adequately reflect the role and share of developing countries in the world economy and, accordingly, then their share in the votes and in the capital of the IMF would increase. And for the past five years the United States has actually been blocking this decision. They are blocking it because they refuse to ratify the 14th quota adjustment.

It is clear that if the yuan acquires the status of a reserve currency, this is an additional argument in favor of increasing China’s share of both capital and votes. This is the only rational argument in favor of China's desire to gain status for its currency.

Mikhail Delyagin

There is only one global reserve currency, it is called the dollar. The basket in question is the basket of currencies on the basis of which the so-called special drawing rights (or SDRs) are created, which is actually the monetary unit of the IMF. The inclusion of the yuan among these currencies (dollar, pound, yen, euro), firstly, will increase its international reputation. Secondly, it will contribute to the influx into it - there will be more purchases of the yuan, and accordingly, it will strengthen somewhat.

Of course, a large strengthening of the yuan could be bad for the Chinese economy. But I think that the Chinese National Bank will be able to counteract this trend, and the strengthening will not be particularly strong.

Kirill Myamlin

The introduction of additional currencies into international payments is positive, because depending on one currency is a vice, the fruits of which we are now reaping.

Of course, for example, swaps are an alternative to the existing system of international payments based on dollars and, in general, on the currencies of the so-called developed countries. But there are also disadvantages. An infinite number of swaps will be quite difficult for calculations: imagine what will happen if everyone makes their own calculations in currency swaps. It can go completely crazy. What are the alternatives? The dollar is not suitable. Yuan is also a substitute for soap. The money that the IMF will issue is a clear creation of a world government, a global mafia that will simply swallow up the whole world.

What to do? We need to return to the idea of ​​the International Clearing House, which was voiced back in 1944 by John Maynard Keynes. And it was precisely this that should have formed the basis of the Bretton Woods system, but then the United States profited from the war and introduced the dollar as the international currency of account. What was the original proposal? The fact is that international clearing houses are being created, a gigantic accounting department that accounts for settlements between different countries. It was proposed to create an accounting unit, the so-called bankor, which could not be seized as an independent value. It had no physical appearance, just a record on the computer. The point is that by the end of a reporting period the balances should be reduced to zero. Suppose we supplied grain to Egypt, and Egypt supplied us with bananas in return. This means that the amounts are equal, the trade balances have leveled out. Everyone is happy and got their advantage. Level all trade balances so that no one starts trade and economic expansion. This is a form of harmonization of economic relations and the actual elimination of global moneylenders. It’s clear why all this didn’t go away then. But now is the time to get back to it.

We, the Institute of High Communitarianism, have renewed the idea of ​​an international clearing house. This is a fair form of world settlement, where no one receives advantages and everyone has equal opportunities. In order to equalize trade balances, it was assumed, including by Keynes, that one should not go beyond certain limits. And for exceeding debit or credit balances, that is, your foreign trade settlements, there are corresponding penalties. And these incomes are withdrawn and go to the benefit of poor countries, helping them to level out their economies. Here the only advantage goes to the country that begins this process, because in strategy the one who sets the rules has the advantage, having the ability to change them. And the second point. In order to fulfill obligations, the banker is based on commodity content or guarantees in the form of contributions, for example, in precious metals. Let's say 10% of the amount of annual foreign trade settlements, which would be worth depositing in some kind of storage. Russia would be ideal as a storage facility as the center of the world, as a Eurasian power.

The IMF Executive Board decided to include the yuan in the list of world reserve currencies. For the first time in the last 15 years, the composition of currencies in the basket will undergo changes. However, analysts have mixed assessments of the possible consequences of this step. Some predict an increase in foreign investment in Chinese assets, others call on the Chinese authorities for serious reforms of the financial system, without which the new status of the yuan will cause “only a yawn” among investors.

The Chinese yuan will be included in the list of reserve currencies of the International Monetary Fund. This decision was made at a meeting of the IMF Executive Board on November 30. The Chinese national currency will become the fifth member of the basket of reserve currencies after the US dollar, euro, British pound sterling and Japanese yen. The yuan will receive a share of 11% of the basket, the IMF announced. This is more than the British pound and the Japanese yen. The largest share is in the American dollar.

The last time the list of currencies included in the basket changed was in 1999: then the French franc and the German mark were excluded from it and the euro was included.

The yuan will differ from other reserve currencies in that it will become the only reserve currency at the moment with a fixed exchange rate.

In addition, unlike other members of the list, the yuan cannot be bought and sold freely. The Chinese national currency will become freely convertible only in 2020.

The decision of the IMF Executive Board did not come as a surprise to the market. IMF head Christine Lagarde announced on November 13 that the yuan is ready to join the reserve currency basket. According to her, fund staff conducted a study according to which the yuan began to meet the criterion of free and widespread use of a currency in cross-border transactions and can be placed on a par with the four currencies of the IMF basket.

The failure to meet precisely this criterion of “free use” was the reason why in 2010 the IMF refused to include the Chinese currency in the reserve list. After this, official Beijing undertook a series of monetary reforms, the purpose of which was to bring the national currency into line with the requirements of the IMF.

In addition, two weeks ago Lagarde noted that the yuan is “widely traded” on the world's major currency markets. “Staff proposes to the Executive Board that the yuan be included in the basket of reserve currencies,” the IMF said in a Nov. 13 note. “I agree with the conclusions of the fund’s staff,” Lagarde was quoted as saying in the fund’s message.

“This is an important milestone on a path that will undoubtedly include more reforms,” Lagarde said after the IMF board meeting ended.

The basket of reserve currencies is an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 called the Special Drawing Rights, or SDR. In the second half of the 20th century, the volumes of international supply of the two most important reserve assets - gold and US dollars - turned out to be insufficient to ensure the expansion of world trade and the development of the financial sector. Then, in 1969, the IMF created the SDR in support of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. But after a few years, the system collapsed and the major currencies switched to a floating exchange rate regime. The need for SDR has weakened. However, later SDR distributions totaling SDR 182.6 billion in 2009 provided liquidity to the global economic system and supplemented member countries' official reserves during the global financial crisis, IMF officials said.

The value of the SDR is based on a basket of four key international currencies and is calculated as the aggregate value of specified amounts of the four currencies in the basket in US dollars, based on exchange rates quoted daily at noon on the London Stock Exchange.

SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. As of March 17, 2015, SDR 204 billion (equivalent to approximately $280 billion) had been created and distributed to member states.

The inclusion of the yuan in the list of reserve currencies may increase the interest of world central banks in this currency. But everything depends on how quickly Beijing can open its markets to the world.

In mid-November, Standard Chartered predicted that the new status of the yuan would lead to an increase in foreign investment in Chinese assets by $0.7–1 trillion over the next five years.

However, other financial institutions called such a move “purely symbolic” unless it was followed by serious structural reforms. Thus, Daiwa Capital Markets believes that without reforms, the entry of the yuan into the basket “will have virtually no meaning,” Bloomberg reports.

The entry of the yuan into the basket of reserve currencies will also entail a new wave of pressure on official Beijing, writes the Wall Street Journal.

The attention of international investors and financial institutions will be focused on how China will open its financial system to the world and comply with the conditions for easing the rigid fixation of the yuan.

The People's Bank of China, which plays the role of the country's central bank, will also have to offer foreign investors the same degree of clarity and transparency provided by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. So far, most of the actions of the People's Bank are a surprise to market participants: this can be said in relation to the devaluation of the yuan carried out in August, and in the case of the silent behavior of the Chinese Central Bank during the collapse of Chinese stock markets in July of this year.

“For most investors, the inclusion of the yuan in the basket of reserve currencies will not be a big deal. The only sound you'll hear is a collective yawn, David Levinger, managing director of the TCW Foundation, told the Wall Street Journal. “The lack of data and transparent policies remains the main risk for investors.”

The Chinese regulator sees this problem and realizes the need for some changes in the process of communication with market participants. “We must create confidence in yuan assets among both domestic and foreign investors, and at the same time prevent the financial risks associated with the currency going more global,” said the head of the research and statistics department of the People’s Bank of China (which plays the role of the central bank). in the country) Sheng Songchen. “This requires a variety of coordinated financial reforms.”

However, here the People’s Bank faces a difficult task - to maneuver between the expectations of foreign investors and the demands of the leadership of the Communist Party, which continues to influence the adoption of major decisions in the country not only in the field of politics, but also in the economy.

Announced the inclusion of the Chinese national currency in the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket - an international means of payment issued by the IMF. Thus, the yuan has joined the list of IMF reserve currencies, which also includes the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen, according to the organization’s official press release.

"The Executive Council's decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket is an important milestone in the process of integrating China's economy into the global financial system. It also recognizes the progress made by the Chinese authorities over the past years in reforming the monetary and financial systems. Continue and deepen this work will lead to the creation of a stronger international monetary and financial system, which in turn will support the growth and stability of China and the global economy," said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

From now on, the value of the SDR will be based on the weighted average value of the currencies included in the basket of currencies consisting of the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan, pound sterling and Japanese yen. The inclusion of the yuan will increase the attractiveness of the SDR by making the basket of currencies more diversified and more representative of the world's leading currencies, Lagarde said.

According to her, the interest rate on assets in the SDR will also continue to be set as the weighted average interest rate on short-term financial instruments in the currency markets included in the SDR basket. The authorities responsible for all currencies represented in the SDR basket (which currently includes the Chinese authorities) are expected to maintain policy frameworks that support transactions by the IMF, its members, and other SDR users in those currencies.

It is noteworthy that on November 27, the Bank of Russia included the Chinese yuan in the list of currencies used for investing gold and foreign exchange reserves. However, the Central Bank has not yet carried out operations to physically purchase yuan. The Central Bank does not plan to carry out operations to purchase assets denominated in yuan in the near future, the TASS agency reported, citing two sources familiar with the situation.

Even then it was reported that, according to experts from the British bank Standard Chartered Plc, which is actively working in Hong Kong, since China has fulfilled all technical requirements, the probability of including the yuan in the SDR basket is 90%. If this happens, investments worth 4 trillion yuan ($628 billion) will flow into China in the next five years, Deutsche Bank AG predicts.

“The transfer of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves into yuan, as well as the inclusion of the yuan in the IMF borrowing basket will be a landmark event for the global economy,” said Nikita Kulikov, executive director of Heads Consulting. “This will help China offset the fall in stock indices that occurred in mid-2015, and will strengthen his position."

The composition of the SDR basket, consisting mainly of the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen, determines the currency structure of loans to countries in need of the fund's assistance. IMF analysts estimate that the share of the yuan in the SDR basket could be approximately 14-16%.

In 2010, the IMF refused to include the yuan in the SDR, noting that the Chinese currency did not meet the definition of “freely usable.” This year, the yuan has become the dominant currency for cross-border settlements in the Asia-Pacific region involving China and Hong Kong, surpassing the yen to become the fourth most used global currency. True, the use of the yuan for investment remains minimal; it is primarily used in trade payments. At the end of this year, the IMF is due to complete its next review of the basket of reserve currencies on the basis of which the fund forms the SDR.

China has taken a number of steps in recent months aimed at liberalizing the currency system and interest rates, as well as internationalizing the national currency, including the gradual lifting of capital restrictions. All these measures, according to analysts, were aimed at strengthening the global role of the yuan and creating conditions for its inclusion in the basket of reserve currencies of the International Monetary Fund.

On October 1, 2016, an event occurred that does not often occur in the international monetary and financial sphere, but which, of course, can be classified as marking important structural shifts and having far-reaching long-term consequences. The Chinese yuan is officially included in the basket of key international currencies on which the value of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) is calculated. The last time the composition of the basket changed was in 1999 due to the introduction of the euro.

In the new basket, the Chinese yuan squeezed out the yen and pound, but the weight of the euro decreased most noticeably (by almost 6.5%). At the same time, the share of the US dollar remained virtually unchanged. The weight of currencies in the SDR basket after the inclusion of the yuan was distributed as follows:

– US dollar – 41.73% (41.9% before including the yuan);

– euro – 30.93% (37.4%);

– Chinese yuan – 10.92%;

– Japanese yen – 8.33% (9.4%);

– British pound – 8.09% (11.3%).

De facto, this event means that the yuan is now on a par with the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound. At the same time, for the first time, the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies includes the national currency of not a developed country, as was previously the case, but of a country with an emerging market. In addition, the yuan is not yet a freely convertible currency. The Chinese authorities will strive to increase the convertibility of the yuan by 2020. According to other forecasts, the process of transition to full convertibility of the yuan may take 10-15 years.

According to IMF Managing Director C. Lagarde, the inclusion of the yuan in the basket of reserve currencies is of historical significance for the SDR, the IMF, China and the international monetary system. In China, the inclusion of the national currency in the SDR basket is regarded as an important turning point that will catalyze the growth of demand for the yuan throughout the world, and therefore will contribute to its further internationalization and the mission of improving the international monetary system.

The mere fact that the Chinese currency is included in the IMF basket does not automatically make the yuan a global reserve currency. However, this event reflects and reinforces the progress China has made in reforming its monetary, financial and exchange rate systems, and is a recognition of China's role and importance in the global economy.

The consequences of including the Chinese currency as a reserve currency will only fully manifest themselves in the long term and may turn out to be very large-scale and significant for the global monetary and financial system. In theory, the very fact of inclusion could contribute to the already ongoing process of expanding the international use of the yuan, removing a number of technical barriers along the way. However, with regard to the Chinese currency, expert opinions are divided regarding the possible consequences. Some believe that no major changes will occur in the short term, at least until China further liberalizes its financial sector and makes the yuan freely convertible. Others believe that demand for the Chinese currency and investments in the yuan will increase in the near future.

Today, the Chinese yuan is already part of official foreign exchange reserves: according to the IMF, 38 out of 130 central banks in the world have already included the yuan in their reserves. According to the latest IMF survey, the yuan's share of central banks' foreign exchange reserves was less than 1.1%, less than the shares of the Australian and Canadian dollars. The US dollar accounts for 63.4% of world reserves (open-ended), the euro 20.2%, the British pound and yen each less than 5%, and the Canadian and Australian dollars just under 2%.

The inclusion of the yuan in the IMF basket will help increase demand for the Chinese currency from central banks and other public investors (for example, sovereign wealth funds) in order to diversify their foreign currency holdings. According to some estimates, the share of the yuan in world reserves could increase to 5% by 2020 (over $375 billion), which would bypass reserves in the British pound and the Japanese yen. Although the world's central banks are not obliged to repeat the structure of the IMF basket, if we assume that the increase in investments will be correlated with the share of the yuan in this basket (10.9%), then its share in world reserves may be greater and amount to about 800 billion dollars (or about half of the current assets of central banks in euros).

Following official government agencies, private institutional investors may also show interest in the yuan. An increase in their investments in yuan assets by only 1% could lead to an increase in demand for them by almost 200 billion dollars by 2020.

In general, according to the most conservative estimates, the expected growth in demand for assets denominated in Chinese currency by public and private investors by 2020 could be about 600 billion dollars, and according to more optimistic forecasts - up to 1 trillion. dollars

In order to simplify transactions with the yuan abroad, China has been actively creating offshore clearing centers in recent years - the so-called. "yuan hubs" The clearing center allows non-residents to gain access to yuan and various financial instruments denominated in yuan, to make payments and settlements in yuan with Chinese companies and banks, including on a clearing basis. Currently, China already has over 20 foreign clearing centers around the world, including both nearby countries (South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia) and European countries (UK, Germany, France, Luxembourg), as well as Australia, Canada, Qatar, Chile. In September 2016, the New York branch of Bank of China became a clearing bank for yuan transactions in the United States, and Moscow ICBC Bank (a Russian subsidiary of the Chinese ICBC Bank) became a clearing bank for yuan transactions in Russia.

According to SWIFT, in the total volume of payments passing through this international system, the share of the yuan in July-August of this year was 1.9%, which provided it with fifth position among the world's leading currencies after the dollar, euro, pound and yen. The gap with the yen in fourth place, which accounts for about 3.4% of settlements, is still large and it is difficult to predict when this gap will be overcome.

In August 2015, the yuan had already surpassed the Japanese yen and ranked fourth among the world's leading currencies with a record share of settlements of 2.79%. However, the subsequent devaluation of the yuan, along with the still high volatility of the Chinese currency and the slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy, made the yuan a less popular unit of account. Of course, the share of the yuan in international payments is incomparably small compared to both the dollar (40-42% of payments) or the euro (30-31%), and China’s share in the world economy and trade. However, there is no denying the impressive growth in international use of the yuan in recent years. If at the beginning of 2013 it ranked 13th with a share of 0.63% of international payments, the yuan currently ranks fifth or sixth in this indicator. Based on the results of the first half of 2016, the yuan is the second currency of settlements in the Asia-Pacific region after the yen. At the same time, the gap between currencies is minimal.

According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the yuan is the most traded currency in emerging markets on the international foreign exchange market. The average daily turnover of the yuan on the forex market in terms of dollars from April 2013 to April 2016 almost doubled - from 110 to 202.0 billion dollars. During this period, transactions with Chinese currency increased from 2.2% to 4% of the average daily turnover of the Forex market.

The trend of wider international use of the yuan that has emerged in recent years allows us to consider it as one of the most important for the global monetary and financial market since the introduction of the euro. Consequently, it could not fail to find corresponding international recognition in the form of inclusion in the IMF basket. At the same time, the inclusion of the Chinese currency in the pool of reserve currencies imposes additional obligations on the PRC to increase transparency in terms of disclosing the structure of its foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves. In particular, China has so far only partially disclosed the structure of its reserves, but is expected to gradually increase transparency on this issue. In the same vein, it is worth considering the ongoing work between the BIS and relevant Chinese structures to improve the provision of statistics on the Chinese banking system.

The yuan is in fact at the initial stage of a long, complex and multifaceted process of moving towards the status of a full-fledged reserve currency, which includes numerous problems and risks, as well as recessions and recoveries. It is unlikely that we should expect a sharp change in demand for yuan in the near future, and China is not yet striving for this under the current conditions. Further liberalization of the capital market is difficult for China due to the continued high risk of capital outflow, which can have a negative impact on the economy of the Middle Kingdom, and through it on the entire world economy. It is fundamentally important for China to stabilize the situation on the currency and financial market, and this requires time. Currency strength and time are also required for investors to believe in the yuan's reliability. It can be assumed that, given the current trends in the near future, China will rather prefer to take a wait-and-see approach, focusing efforts on solving short-term problems, while reducing the pace of internationalization of the yuan.

The fact that the yuan is included in the IMF basket can be viewed from different angles. This is both a step towards further integration of China into the international monetary and financial system, and at the same time a certain message to Beijing, designed to convince it of the need for further steps towards the free convertibility of the yuan.

Now the composition of the IMF basket is more diversified and comprehensively reflects the current position of world currencies and the state of the global economy, which will provide it with additional protection from exchange rate volatility and increase its significance for the global economy.

China confirms its intention to more actively participate in resolving issues on the global monetary and financial agenda and at the same time its readiness not to deviate from the path of reforms and further liberalization of the financial market. At the same time, the PRC understands that in the future the international community will evaluate China's financial reforms by higher standards and in accordance with a higher level of international responsibility.

This is a conventional unit of account for the fund, issued by the IMF in non-cash form. Its scope is limited to accounts within the IMF. SDR plays the role of additional liquidity necessary to regulate the balance of payments of the fund's member countries, to cover the deficit of their balance of payments, as well as as international reserves and to make payments on IMF loans. All these operations are carried out only at the interstate level or between the governments of countries and the IMF.

Photo: iris wright / shutterstock.com

The world's largest oil importer, China, is completing preparations for the launch of yuan-denominated oil futures trading on the Shanghai Exchange. It is expected that exchange trading in futures will begin this year. Reuters reports this. This is, to put it mildly, an important event.

Exchange trading of oil and oil derivatives is currently carried out on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the London Petroleum Exchange and the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. All 3 exchanges belong to one group - CME group. Plus, there is also the ICE exchange, which also trades oil futures. I think that ICE and CME have the same owners. These trading platforms manipulate the price of oil as they want - they want oil to cost $200, or vice versa, $30. If any oil exporting country wants to organize its own oil exchange, then the same thing that happened to Iran will happen to it. Therefore, no other country in the world has an oil exchange. In 2005, Iran decided to create an oil exchange, but the UN Security Council suddenly and unexpectedly imposed sanctions against Iran and prohibited all other countries from buying oil from Iran. It just so happened.

For the reason stated above, the organization of oil futures trading in China is an event of exceptional importance. But there is another reason why this is important. The fact is that the Chinese have already organized trading in gold futures denominated in yuan (since April 2016 in Shanghai and since July 2017 in Hong Kong), and now also trading in oil futures denominated in yuan. This means 2 fundamental things:

[b]1. Now the price of oil in yuan will appear and, accordingly, it will be possible to conclude contracts for oil in yuan.

[b]2. Now a company selling oil or other goods for yuan under a long-term contract will be able, simultaneously with the conclusion of the contract, to buy gold futures for the amount it will receive from the sale of oil (or goods). Those. It turns out that the yuan is backed by gold.

Until now, there was only one country that allowed trade proceeds to be protected from currency fluctuations in this way - the United States. Now there will be two such countries. But China will have an advantage. The fact is that in New York (London) it is impossible to buy physical gold, only gold futures, which generally speaking is not the same thing. And on the Shanghai Exchange you can buy physical gold. It was precisely in order to organize a liquid market for physical gold that China has been buying gold in huge volumes in recent years. China now has 20,000 tons of gold (see chart).

For comparison, the USA has 8,000 tons, and Germany has 3,400 tons.

In other words, in the coming years, when exchange trading in oil and gold in Shanghai becomes fully operational, for the first time since 1971, a gold-backed currency, the yuan, will appear in the world. The yuan will not be tied to gold (as the dollar was at one time), but will be backed by it. Those. any trading partner of China will be able to purchase physical gold using the yuan at the exchange price. This is what the new gold standard will look like.

Exchange trading of oil in China changes everything. The world will never be the same again. Oil (gas) exporters will have the opportunity to partially convert their gold and foreign exchange reserves into yuan. Apparently Russia, Venezuela, Qatar, and Angola will do this. Iran has already done this. The Saudis will also not go anywhere if they want China to buy their oil. As we wrote in a previous post, China is harshly forcing the Saudis to convert oil contracts into yuan. When this happens (and it will), it will make no sense for the Saudis to exchange yuan for dollars. They will continue to store them in bins in the form of yuan.

I think that in the next 10-15 years a significant part of world trade will be converted to yuan. The Chinese are planning to organize exchange trading in yuan not only for oil, but also gas, copper, and other non-ferrous metals. It will be much more convenient to nominate trade contracts in yuan than in dollars because the United States has a weak trade balance, while China has a strong one. And in general, China has a larger and more diversified economy.

In general, now you can forget not only about the US dollar, but also about the United States itself. Because the main export item of the United States is dollars. Tomorrow no one will need them in the same volume as today and the hole in the US balance of payments will collapse. This will not lead to the collapse of the economy, but the dollar will fall in price by 25%. We wrote about this in detail here. Accordingly, prices for all industrial goods in the USA will increase by 25% and the population will not be delighted. The United States has already entered a long-term period of political instability and the situation will only deteriorate further.

Will the US lose the ability to print dollars? No, they won’t lose it, but they won’t print it either. Actually, they don't print them anymore. Will the US lose the ability to increase its national debt? No, they won’t lose it, but only residents and the Fed will buy it (debt). Foreigners will not be very interested in US Treasury bonds.

The world is changing right before our eyes. China (with our help) is putting the final nail in the coffin of the global financial system. A completely new world order is being born. The United States is giving way to a new world leader, China, just as 100 years ago Great Britain gave way to the global leader of the United States. (Great Britain itself, by the way, is moving into the category of leaders not of the second, but of the third). The United States can only thank us for its many years of global leadership and retire. We have only one enemy left - Germany. But this enemy is decrepit and no longer dangerous.