Types of crises and their causes. Basic concepts of crisis, types of crises

The causes of the crisis can be divided into objective, related to the cyclical needs of restructuring, modernization, and subjective, caused by errors in management, natural (climate, subsoil, water environment, etc.). The causes of the crisis can be divided into external and internal. The former are associated with the action of macro- or external economic factors, the latter - with internal factors, with a risky marketing strategy, imperfect production and management, limited innovation and investment policies, and ineffective personnel management.

If we agree that a crisis can arise as a result of a variety of external and internal factors, we can conclude that the danger of a crisis exists constantly, it must be foreseen and predicted.

To effectively manage a crisis, it is necessary to examine not only its causes, but also its consequences. For example, as a result of a crisis, it is possible for an organization to be renewed or liquidated, to improve or worsen the situation. A crisis can have both positive and extremely negative consequences. They can also develop according to the “domino principle”. It is possible to preserve crisis situations for quite a long time (for example, political). The consequences of a crisis can be reduced to drastic changes or a soft exit. And post-crisis consequences in a company can be long-term or short-term, reversible and irreversible, quantitative and qualitative.

The consequences of a crisis are determined not only by its nature and parameters, but also by the effectiveness of crisis management. The latter depends on professionalism, a motivation system, forecasting causes and consequences, the art of management, and effective methodology.

If there is a classification and knowledge of the type of crisis, there are opportunities to reduce its impact and ensure its painlessness. According to the classification, general and local crises arise. General crises cover the entire socio-economic system, local crises cover one or more subsystems.

On the issues of the crisis, macro- and microcrises should be indicated. The macrocrisis covers the entire national economic system. A microcrisis extends to a single problem or group of problems. But a crisis, being minimal, can, like the “domino” principle, involve the entire system or the entire development process in contradictions, since all elements are interconnected and interact in the system, problems are solved comprehensively. A crisis covers all elements when there is no management of crisis situations, no measures to localize and reduce its severity, or vice versa, when there is a deliberate motivation for the development of the crisis. Based on the structure of relations in the national economic system and on various development issues, the following types of economic, psychological, organizational, social, and technological crises have been established. Economic crises are caused by sharp contradictions in the economy of a country or an individual economic entity. These include crises in the production and sale of goods, relations between economic agents, crises of non-payments, competitive advantages, bankruptcy, etc. Among economic crises, there are financial crises in the state of the financial system and financial capabilities. Social crises arise when contradictions between different social groups develop. Often social crises are a continuation of economic crises, but sometimes they arise separately.

In the totality of social crises, one should indicate a political crisis - contradictions in the political structure of society, a crisis of power, a crisis of contradictions in the interests of various social groups, classes, in the management of society.

Organizational crises arise as a result of contradictions in the processes of separation and integration, distribution of functions, design of an organizational structure, such as the separation of administrative units. An organizational crisis is manifested by an exacerbation of contradictions in the process of organizing production and management, for example in the form of excessive bureaucratization.

Psychological crises are crises of a person’s psychological state, for example, stress, feelings of uncertainty, dissatisfaction with work, fear, legal protection. A technological crisis is a crisis of new technological ideas in the context of the need for new technologies. Based on the reasons for their occurrence, crises are divided into natural, environmental, and social. The first are caused by human impact on the environment, earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, climate change, and floods. Currently, forecasting has become especially important, as well as recognizing crises in the relationship between man and nature - environmental, which arise when natural conditions change caused by human activity; depletion of resources, environmental pollution, the emergence of dangerous technologies, neglect of the requirements of the laws of natural balance.

Rice. 1.

Crises can also be predictable (natural) or given (random).

Predictable crises can be predicted and arise under the influence of objective development factors - the need to modernize production, business processes under the influence of macroeconomic factors.

Unexpected crises arise as a result of errors in management, the action of natural forces, and the intensification of socio-economic processes. A type of predictable crisis is a cyclical crisis, which occurs periodically and has known phases of its onset and course; there are also obvious and latent (hidden) crises. The first ones occur noticeably and are easily recognized. The second ones are hidden, develop unnoticed and are extremely dangerous. Crises are also divided into mild and deep.

Deep crises can destabilize parts or the entire socio-economic system. Light, mild crises occur more consistently and painlessly. The totality of possible crises is also divided into short-term and protracted.

The time factor is extremely important in a crisis situation; the longer the crisis, the more painful it is. Prolonged ones are painful and difficult. They are usually associated with a lack of skills to manage critical situations, a lack of understanding of the essence and parameters of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.

In the context of the global financial crisis that broke out in September 2008, there is again a growing interest in the problems of cyclicality, uneven social development, its transitional forms, and the possibilities of forecasting and regulating the economic development of municipalities.

It is natural to assume that local governments, having significant material, financial, organizational, information and other resources, have a significant influence on the ways of implementing state anti-crisis policy on their territory. One of the specific features of the municipal government system in a market economy is the dual role of local governments in economic processes. On the one hand, they are major owners and active participants in economic relations, on the other hand, having power, they have the opportunity to directly regulate these relations by issuing relevant regulatory legal acts. This situation requires the substantiation of scientific approaches to understanding the essence and nature of crisis phenomena, to determining the place and role of anti-crisis management in the territorial management system.

The purpose of this work is to study crises. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

Define the concept of crisis;

Determine the stages of crisis development;

Determine the causes of the crisis;

Identify the main types of crises and methods for overcoming them.

1 crisis: concept, causes, stages

1.1 Concept of crisis

An economic crisis (Ancient Greek: Krisis - turning point) is a serious disruption in normal economic activity. One of the forms of manifestation of the crisis is the systematic, massive accumulation of debts and the impossibility of repaying them within a reasonable time. The cause of economic crises is often seen as an imbalance between supply and demand for goods and services.

The possibility and necessity of economic crises are determined by the contradictions between the production and consumption of goods. With the development of a market economy, commodity and money circulation, the likelihood of an exacerbation of this contradiction increases, as direct economic ties disappear. The interests of intermediaries wedge themselves into them. A regional and sectoral structure of the economy emerges, and this occurs in conditions of general integration of economic life.

The division of labor, the development of specialization and cooperation exacerbate the contradiction between production and consumption. This contradiction is also manifested in the gap between production and consumption both in time and space. The aggravation of the contradiction becomes not only noticeable, but also regular and occurs as periodically occurring economic crises.

In pre-capitalist modes of production, the economic crisis manifested itself in the form of underproduction of material goods. Under capitalism it is most acutely manifested in overproduction.

The manifestation of this contradiction in different historical periods and in different countries has its own specifics. However, a crisis, like any phenomenon of social development, has certain characteristics. The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in a significant mismatch between production and consumption. This disrupts the normal functioning of the entire economic system and manifests itself in the overproduction of goods in relation to effective aggregate demand, disruption of the process of conditions for the reproduction of social capital, mass bankruptcies of firms, rising unemployment and other socio-economic shocks.

1.2 Causes of economic crises

A crisis is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in a socio-economic system (organization), threatening its viability in the environment.

The contradiction between production and consumption is the main, but not the only cause of economic crises. The sources of economic crises are complexes of contradictions that accumulate and intensify in various processes of economic development. Many contradictions and their aggravation can be foreseen, but it is not always possible to completely eliminate them. Changing human needs and interests, and consequently the demand for certain types of products, is natural and natural. Production is to a certain extent inert and can only be restructured periodically. Scientific and technological progress, which determines the emergence of new technologies, also has an impulsive nature: the accumulation of the potential of new discoveries and its implementation in technological solutions; it also, according to many experts, determines the duration of the cycles.

But the immediate causes of economic crises can be a variety of events not only of an economic, but also of a socio-political nature. This reveals the connection between the economy and the socio-political life of society.

Points of view about the causes of economic crises are very contradictory. The impact of the same factors on the cyclical nature of economic development in different periods and at different stages is different, and their manifestation in individual states has distinctive features. The need to renew fixed capital is a stimulus for economic recovery. The initial impetus is the replacement of equipment and technology, therefore the renewal of fixed capital is the material and technical basis of the economic cycle and the cause of the crisis. The reduction in cycle periods (from 10-11 years in the 19th century to 7-8 years in the pre-war years and 4-5 years in the post-war years of the 20th century) characterizes the acceleration of the development of scientific and technical progress in the modern world.

The causes of the crisis may be objective, related to the cyclical needs of modernization and restructuring; subjective, reflecting errors and voluntarism in management; natural, caused by climate, earthquakes, etc.

The causes of the crisis can be external and internal. For example, for a company, external causes of a crisis may be associated with trends and strategies of macroeconomic development or even the development of the world economy, competition, political situations in the country, and internal causes - with risky marketing strategies, internal conflicts, shortcomings in the organization of production, imperfect management, innovation and investment policy.

If we understand the crisis in this way, then we can state that the danger of a crisis always exists, and that it must be foreseen and predicted.

Rice. 1 Causes of crises

In understanding a crisis, not only its causes are of great importance, but also its consequences - perhaps the renewal of the organization or its destruction, recovery or the emergence of a new crisis, perhaps even deeper and longer lasting. Crises can occur as a chain reaction.

1.3 Stages of the crisis process in the economy

It is necessary to divide the crisis process into various stages, primarily in order to determine the point and time of application of measures to influence the crisis, prevent and overcome the crisis.

Kristek characterizes the stages of the crisis process in terms of opportunities, the potential to overcome the crisis and early warning of it.

The individual stages of the crisis process according to Kristek can be described as follows:

1. Stage: potential crisis

The crisis of an enterprise as a process finds its beginning in the potential phase, i.e. only a possible but not yet real crisis of the enterprise. And due to the absence of reliable symptoms of the crisis, this state of the enterprise is characterized as quasi-normal, i.e. almost like a state in which the enterprise is constantly located, and it gives the time/starting point for the emergence of a crisis in the enterprise.

2. Stage: latent/hidden crisis

This phase of the crisis process is characterized by a hidden crisis that already exists or is likely to begin soon, the effects of which are not determined by the standard tools available to the enterprise. But the use of special early recognition techniques allows at this stage to actively influence the latent crisis with the help of preventive measures.

In general, at this stage, the enterprise’s potential to overcome the crisis is usually not used to its full extent. The main emphasis here lies in the application of early warning/recognition systems.

3. Stage: acute surmountable crisis

At this stage, the enterprise begins to directly feel the negative impact emanating from the crisis. At the same time, the intensity of real destructive influences directed against the enterprise increases, which causes a sharp shortage, time pressure, urgency/urgency of decision-making. With a further reduction in alternative options of action due to the exhaustion of available time, the requirements for finding effective ways to solve problems (factors for overcoming the crisis) increase. At this stage, to overcome the crisis, the mobilization of ever greater forces of the enterprise is required and the available reserves to overcome the crisis are completely exhausted. At this stage, there is still a possibility of overcoming (curbing) the acute crisis, because the available crisis coping potential is sufficient to cope with the crisis. The requirements for overcoming the crisis are increasing to the limit, and measures to overcome the crisis must show their effect on improving the situation in a very short period of time available.

4. Stage: acute insurmountable crisis

If it is not possible to curb an acute crisis, then the enterprise enters the last stage of development of the crisis process, which ends with the liquidation of the enterprise. At this stage, the requirements for overcoming the crisis significantly exceed the available potential. Overcoming the crisis process is not possible, especially due to the lack of or unsuccessful measures, actions, due to extremely strong time pressure and due to the increasing intensity of destructive influences directed against the enterprise.

2 Classification of crises

Practice shows that crises are not the same not only in their causes and consequences, but also in their very essence. It is possible to make a branched classification of crises, which is necessary and intended to differentiate the means and methods of managing them. If there is a concept and understanding of the nature of the crisis, then there is a greater opportunity to reduce its severity, reduce time and ensure painlessness (Fig. 2).

Figure 2 – Typology of crises

In order to diagnose and develop an adequate anti-crisis strategy, the following classification of crises can be applied.

1. For reasons of occurrence.

1.1. Strategic crisis– affects all spheres of the local economy, occurs when the administration loses a strategic vision of the problems of development of the territory, if it wants to maintain a predominantly administrative management mechanism and refuses to switch to market methods of management. It is especially typical for territories with a relatively high share of the state and municipal sector.

1.2. The crisis of "success"– the occurrence of insolvency due to shortcomings of management, when there is an unreasonable increase in budget expenditures, which in the future may lead to the need for expanded use of borrowed funds. It is expressed in a decreased share of the budget’s own revenues.

1.3. Insolvency crisis– external manifestation of violations in the functioning of the territorial system, when a municipality is unable to pay off its debts. The reason for such a crisis is most often the untimely receipt of funds into the local budget from other levels of the budget system, one-time unplanned budget expenses, and the need to form reserve funds. Lenders refuse to wait for payment for goods supplied and services rendered, as well as to perform work or services under a municipal order without prepayment; banks refuse to further issue loans. An insolvency crisis can be resolved in a short time, but with frequent occurrences of insolvency, payments suddenly stop at a certain point.

2. Duration.

2.1. Long term– for a strategic crisis.

2.2. Medium term– for the crisis of “success”.

2.3. Short– for an insolvency crisis.

3. By stages.

3.1. Reversible crises– the municipal administration, independently or with the participation of interested parties, carries out transformations in the economic, financial, social and political spheres, as a result of which it restores solvency.

3.2. Irreversible crises– the administration of the municipality is not able to resolve the crisis situation on its own; federal intervention is required.

4. By sphere of origin.

4.1. Endogenous crises – arise within a municipality, usually as a result of erroneous management. To identify it, additional research in the field of marketing and management is needed based on internal analysis.

4.2. Exogenous crises arise for reasons beyond the control of the municipality - high inflation, high interest rates on loans, instability of the tax system and inter-budgetary relations, social tension, imperfection of the system of state regulation of prices and tariffs, especially for the services of natural monopolies, etc. Additional diagnostics are required studies of regional and local markets for loan capital, labor, etc.

5. By nature.

5.1. Economic. Economic crises are based on the irrational use of resources (labor, natural, land, production) or their lack due to an unfavorable geographical location or depletion of natural resource deposits, physical and moral wear and tear of fixed assets, low qualifications of workers and management personnel, inefficient use of municipal property, low investment attractiveness of the territory.

5.2. Fiscal crises arise in connection with unbalanced budget policy, low tax base of local government, late or incomplete receipt of taxes and other obligatory payments, high level of borrowing, low payment discipline, insufficient legal and methodological support for the municipal debt management system, direct violations of financial discipline, implementation by municipalities individual government powers without appropriate financial or property support.

5.3. Socio-political crises are objectively inherent in territorial systems and can arise as a result of inadequate policies of local authorities, internal struggle between political parties and movements, loss of control over the situation by the head of the administration, and personal ambitions of individual political leaders.

5.4. Social crises are associated with national, ethnic, religious conflicts, as well as with high levels of unemployment, sharp differentiation of incomes of the population and the inability to obtain the entire necessary package of social services according to minimum social standards.

5.5. Environmental crises and emergencies arise as a result of natural disasters, natural and man-made disasters, inadequate human impact on the environment, flora and fauna and failure to take timely measures to protect them. Characterized by deterioration of industrial, radiation, chemical, biological (bacteriological), seismic and hydrometeorological conditions, the occurrence of epidemics, epizootics, epiphytoties.

6. By scale.

6.1. National– cover the entire country.

6.2. Regional– cover the territory of a separate subject of the federation or the territory of several municipalities located in different subjects of the federation, but having common borders.

6.3. Local– cover the territory of a separate municipality or local crisis areas within large municipalities.

7. In depth.

7.1. Local– affect individual subsystems of the territorial management system, distinguished by subject, functional or other characteristics.

7.2. System– affect all subsystems of the territorial management system.

8. By frequency.

8.1. Cyclical crises associated with cyclical fluctuations in the economy.

8.2. Non-cyclical crises are not associated with cyclical fluctuations of the economy, but are caused by reasons of an objective or subjective nature.

3 overcoming crises

3.1 Methods for overcoming crises at the municipal level

The study of problems of crisis management in municipalities can be carried out in four directions:

1) participation of local governments in the financial recovery of debtor enterprises;

2) participation of local governments in anti-crisis management (bankruptcy) procedures of municipal enterprises and municipal organizations;

3) anti-crisis management of the municipality as a single economic-territorial complex.

Currently, as new forms of territorial management emerge and develop, it becomes obvious that municipalities and regions are complex socio-economic systems, subject to crises in the same way as production systems. In this regard, in the general anti-crisis management system, it is advisable to highlight anti-crisis management of territorial systems (Figure 3).

Figure 3 – Structure of the concept of “anti-crisis management”

If we consider the crisis of a territory as a period characterized by the highest probability of situations arising in which the conditions for its sustainable development turn out to be impossible, then in the most general form anti-crisis management of a municipality can be defined as one of the most important constantly implemented activities of local government bodies, ensuring the preservation of a certain structure of the local government. economy, its sustainable development and mitigating the negative consequences of crises of various natures.

In modern literature, it is customary to give a narrow and broad interpretation of the concept of “anti-crisis management”, as well as to separate the concepts of “anti-crisis management” and “anti-crisis regulation”.

Crisis management municipal entity in the narrow sense words can be seen as a set of measures to restore solvency municipality and satisfaction of creditors' claims .

Solvency– the ability of a municipality to timely and fully fulfill its obligations arising from trade, credit and other transactions of a monetary nature.

Insolvency– the financial situation of a municipality in which it cannot repay its financial obligations on a timely basis.

The municipality is recognized insolvent, i.e. unable to provide servicing and repayment of its obligations, in the presence of at least one of the following circumstances:

Refusal of local governments to fulfill the obligation to repay and (or) service their obligations, as well as failure to provide a response to the claims of creditors within the time limits established by law or the contract;

Lack of funds in the local budget account necessary to execute a court decision to collect funds to repay and (or) service the obligations of the municipality;

The insufficiency of the volume of allocations provided for by the local budget for the repayment and servicing of municipal debt to finance these expenses based on the timing of debt obligations.

The reasons for the insolvency of a municipal entity may be:

Violation of the procedure for preparing and considering the draft budget; errors in the very logic of development and consideration of the draft budget; lack of a treasury budget execution system;

Refusal of the administrations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to take into account the actual debts of municipalities when considering the volume of transfers; unclear procedure for clarifying the relationship between state authorities, local government and the creditor;

Failure to comply with the principle of cash unity. The transition to treasury execution of budgets in municipalities has been partially carried out. Despite the fact that treasury execution of the budget is enshrined in the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, in municipalities the basic principles of the treasury are violated, in particular the unity of the cash register: in fact, budget revenues are credited to different accounts;

Lack of summary information on total domestic debt, since accounts payable are not included in domestic debt; Only a small part of the overdue accounts payable of municipal enterprises and organizations is converted into budget debt, while the majority of housing and communal services enterprises and municipal urban passenger transport are actually bankrupt;

Lack of a consolidated accounting system for accounts payable of municipal enterprises and institutions. The format for maintaining a debt book does not allow adequate monitoring of the situation with debt to enterprises supplying fuel and energy resources and making appropriate management decisions;

Lack of a system of municipal ordering and price control for goods, works, and services purchased from the budget.

Anti-crisis management of a municipality in a broad sense is the application of anti-crisis procedures in relation to a specific territory in order to prevent a crisis or smooth out its negative consequences.

Anti-crisis procedures in this understanding include:

1) analysis of the external environment and internal potential of the territory (property, financial, tax, natural, geographical, etc.), as well as its competitive advantages based on SWOT analysis;

2) budget analysis based on a comparison of the municipality’s own and regulatory revenues, forecast of budget revenues and expenses;

3) diagnosing the occurrence of crisis situations in order to take measures adequate to the cause of the crisis;

4) development of an anti-crisis strategy;

5) development of an anti-crisis program for the development of the territory, incl. short-term measures to restructure debt, increase revenues and reduce budget expenses and long-term measures to restructure key industries, city-forming enterprises, and improve local finances;

6) creation of structures for organizing program management and subsequent monitoring of the progress of its implementation.

3.2 Principles of anti-crisis management of the territory

1. The principle of unity of management goals at different levels of the hierarchy (federation, subject of the federation and municipality).

2. The principle of adequacy. Methods for developing and making decisions in a crisis situation must be adequate to the real situation. Anti-crisis managers must have a higher level of qualifications compared to managers under normal conditions in order to quickly and adequately respond to changes in external and internal factors affecting the development of the territory.

3. The principle of a systematic approach to solving assigned problems. The system of anti-crisis management of the development of the territory is considered as a complex socio-economic system and is built as a set of functional, supporting and subject subsystems (subsystems of anti-crisis management of property, housing and communal services, city-forming enterprises, the social sphere, etc.), therefore it is necessary to constantly analyze the political, social , economic, financial, environmental, legal, technogenic and other factors that influence each of these subsystems and together ensure the sustainable development of the territory.

4. The principle of purposefulness. Anti-crisis management can only be effective if there is a deeply developed plan for the financial recovery of the territory, which is based on the mission of the territory - ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of the municipality. This anti-crisis management strategy is fully consistent with the following local goals during a crisis: (1) ensuring current payments - the current activities of the municipal administration must be organized in such a way that, during its implementation, at least pay off creditors, incl. with budgets of other levels of the budget system; (2) the accumulated financial resources must be sufficient to, at the end of the special anti-crisis management procedures, pay off previously incurred and “frozen” accounts payable at the time of the introduction of the special regime; (3) preventing the occurrence of debt in the future.

5. The principle of the leading link. Due to the multifaceted and diverse nature of the process of anti-crisis management of a municipal formation, it is necessary to select and implement realistically achievable goals. As a rule, if there are two equal goals, priority goes to the closest of them - ensuring current payments.

6. The principle of optimality. In the process of developing and making management decisions, it is necessary to determine some optimality criteria. Each decision is made in such a way that the selected optimality criterion has an extreme value under certain restrictive conditions. Various restrictions and their combinations determine different options for management decisions. Obviously, one of the criteria should be the budget effect - the difference between the income received as a result of the anti-crisis program and the costs of its development and implementation.

Each of the directions described above for the formation of a modern system of anti-crisis management of the territory, of course, requires more detailed study and clarification, however, a unified conceptual approach to building a municipal system of anti-crisis management based on a unified methodology will ensure effective management of crisis areas and create the preconditions for their sustainable development in the future .

Conclusion

Economic theory is based on the premise that cyclical fluctuations and crises are necessary components of economic development, therefore many modern studies are devoted to the problems of creating and organizing the functioning of a system of stabilization measures that smooth out the negative aspects of cyclicality (including at the local level).

The stable or unstable financial condition of enterprises directly affects local budgets, which, in turn, are indicators of the economic condition of the territory. It is in this context that, as a rule, the system of anti-crisis management of the territory is considered. However, the protective mechanisms of risk management, currently used at the micro level (at the level of individual enterprises), which contribute to the early detection, prevention and limitation of even weak signals of a crisis, can, to one degree or another, be adapted to territorial systems as a whole.

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1. The concept of crisis. Classification of crises

2. Industry crises

3. Enterprise crisis

4. Causes and signs of the crisis

1. When analyzing various literary sources, one can see that there is no generally accepted concept of crises. Some authors believe that crises are only part of macroeconomic development processes, and at the level of an organization or enterprise there are only more or less acute problems.

This position is narrow and one-sided; all factors are not taken into account, and the adoption of this position can have negative consequences.

Closely intertwined with the concept of “crisis” is another concept – “risk”, which to a certain extent influences the management development methodology. If we exclude the expectation of a crisis from it, then the acuteness of risk perception will disappear, and crisis situations and quite ordinary mistakes can become very serious.

Any socio-economic system has two main directions of its existence - functioning and development.

Functioning is the maintenance of vital activity, the preservation of the functions of the company, which determine its qualitative certainty and the most important characteristics.

Development is the acquisition of a new quality that provides certain benefits and strengthens the position of the company.

These two directions are closely related to each other, and this connection is dialectical in nature, which illustrates the possibility and pattern of the onset and resolution of crises. Functioning constrains development and at the same time is its fundamental environment; development, in turn, destroys some functioning processes, but creates conditions for strengthening its implementation.

The consequence is the emergence of a cyclical development trend, in which one can see the periodic manifestation of crises. Crises are not necessarily destructive, they vary in severity, but they can also have positive impacts on a small scale. These are, for example, gaps in management, strategy, etc.

Thus, a crisis is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in a socio-economic system (enterprise, organization), which is a threat to its existence, normal functioning and competitiveness; the danger of bankruptcy and the turning point in various processes.

In general, each crisis has an individual character depending on the conditions and factors of its occurrence. But despite this, the classification of crises is necessary, since with its help it will be possible to determine one or another type of crisis, and this in turn facilitates the establishment of causes.

When describing the typology of crises, one has to deal with a branched structure. This is due to the fact that crises are diverse in their essence, causes and consequences, as well as in approaches to their classification.

Classifications based on identifying the nature of crises.

1. By scale of the problem:

Microeconomic – cover a specific group of issues or problems;

Macroeconomic – cover individual sectors or areas as a whole.

The peculiarity of a crisis is that, being local or microeconomic, it can spread or take on a large scale. But this is a consequence of inept policies to combat the crisis.

2. According to the regularity of appearance:

Periodic crises - repeat regularly and, as a rule, are characterized by a similar course; they are predictable and therefore can be prepared for;

Intermediate crises are less acute and lasting, often interrupted at some stage.

3. By degree of predictability:

Predictable – often occurs as a stage of development, predictable and caused by objective reasons; accumulation of factors, such as the need to change structure, change direction;

Unpredictable (unexpected, random) - the result of miscalculations in management, errors in forecasting, a crisis in a certain government sphere, natural (catastrophic) phenomena.

4. According to the degree of openness of the flow:

Explicit – easily detected and noticeably progressing; “pitfalls” are unlikely;

Latent (hidden) ones are the most dangerous, since in their initial stages they are practically unnoticeable and appear only when large contradictions are identified.

5. By depth of processes:

Mild – such crises proceed quite mildly; short-lived, easily predictable and manageable;

Deep – they are protracted and have a difficult course; often cause the destruction of various structures of the socio-economic system and can lead to larger and more dangerous forms of crisis.

Classifications based on structural characteristics of crises.

By scale of manifestation:

General – cover the entire socio-economic system;

Local – cover a specific part or area of the system.

This division is conditional, since... When analyzing a specific crisis situation, you need to take into account the boundaries of the system, its environment and structure.

In addition there are:

Monetary crisis - banks are the first to suffer, as there is a sharp reduction in the issuance of commercial and bank loans, a massive withdrawal of deposits by the population and their transfer into cash. Stock and bond prices are also falling.

Financial crisis – deep difficulties in public finances. This manifests itself in budget deficits.

Currency crisis - manifests itself in the depreciation of currencies on the world market and the fall of exchange rates. Depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks.

The stock exchange crisis is expressed in a sharp decline in securities prices and a reduction in their issue.

2. The economic crisis reflects acute tension in the socio-economic system. This type of crisis is characterized by a cyclical type of development, which consists of four main phases:

1. recession - there is a reduction in production volumes and business activity;

2. depression – this phase lasts on average from six months to four years, characterized by uncertainty and attempts to adapt to new conditions;

3. revival - the recovery phase, characterized by a rise in prices, production, and capital investment;

4. rise - new enterprises and products are actively emerging.

There are several types of cycles proposed by various scientists:

1) Kondratiev’s “long waves”. Their duration is on average 50 years. The reason is radical changes in the technological base of social production, its structural restructuring;

2) Kuznets cycles. Duration approximately 20 years. They are distinguished by shifts in the reproductive structure of production, which is why cycles are often also called reproductive or construction cycles;

3) Jagler cycles. Duration 7-11 years. Underlying are the various interactions of monetary factors;

4) Kitchin cycles. Duration 3-5 years. They arise due to the dynamics of the relative amounts of stocks of various inventories at enterprises.

The group of economic crises includes several varieties: financial, structural, production crises, crises of loss of competitive advantage.

A structural crisis is generated by deep disproportions between the development of individual spheres and industries. This is usually a long, protracted crisis, which is not inherently cyclical in nature.

A crisis of overproduction of goods is the production of excess units of a product and, as a consequence, a decrease, and sometimes even the disappearance of demand for it.

A crisis of underproduction of goods is an acute shortage of goods in conditions of high demand for them.

The crisis of loss of competitive advantage is the switching of consumer demand to another type of product. It is necessary to limit the pace of production or introduce new technologies and innovative structures.

An agrarian crisis is a sharp drop in prices for agricultural products and a general deterioration in the state of the economy. May be accompanied by a sharp outflow of population from rural areas to urban areas.

An industrial crisis is an acute difficulty in the industrial sector, associated primarily with the lack of demand for domestic products and the deterioration of technical resources. Domestic enterprises have to survive in conditions of fierce competition from foreign companies. This happens for several reasons:

The technical equipment of an enterprise can cause a serious crisis, since, as a rule, replacing equipment requires large material costs;

Outdated equipment does not allow, in some cases, to produce products that meet generally accepted standards, which also reduces demand for them:

A purely psychological factor - the population does not trust domestic producers, despite the fact that in many cases the products are no different.

Classifications based on the structure of relations in the socio-economic system.

1. Social crisis - an increase in social tension due to the aggravation of contradictions between different social groups. Social crises are often called a consequence of economic ones, although it cannot be said that this is a direct consequence.

2. Political crises are crises in the country’s political system, crises of power. When this type of crisis occurs, all attention is usually directed to solving the problem at hand, so other areas suffer. Almost always, political crises turn into economic crises, i.e. The crisis situation in the country lasts for quite a long time, which is ultimately negative for society.

Essential signs of political crises are:

1 - a sharp aggravation of social and economic conflicts developing into crises;

2 – helplessness of the authorities during the growth of conflicts and crisis situations;

3 - separation of powers, severance of interacting ties, increasing tension in society.

A systemic political crisis - its occurrence means that contradictions in the main spheres of society have reached such a state. That this destabilization cannot be overcome without changing the existing political system. Signs:

Long-term inaction of the authorities, complete loss of management potential and strategic concept by government agencies;

Negative activity of the public masses, the transition to active actions by dissatisfied individuals;

A sharp drop in living standards, lack of income for the majority of the population.

Organizational crises - in the organizational structure of any system, socio-economic relations can become aggravated (business conflicts, management problems due to complex infrastructure, etc.) Management crises can lead to the reorganization of the enterprise or its complete liquidation. This is typical for such organizational and legal forms as partnership and joint stock company.

Reputation crisis is a decline in the reputation of a company or firm in society due to a number of reasons. This is a rather dangerous crisis, as it can cause a complete decline in activity. Reasons: release of low-quality products, detection of fraud, fraudulent actions on the part of competitors, violation of terms of transactions.

A psychological crisis is a crisis of a person’s mental state. They manifest themselves in the form of stressful conditions, feelings of dissatisfaction or unfulfillment, dissatisfaction with the social and legal situation. They arise due to critical conditions in society, the state, and other crises.

Classification based on immediate causes.

Natural crises are characterized by the state of the natural environment. They arise due to serious natural phenomena - hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, natural fires. Such crises have a strong impact on the economy and social processes.

Environmental crises are crises caused by profound changes in natural and climatic conditions due to human activity (depletion of resources, pollution of the atmosphere and water resources, climate change (global warming)). This is a very urgent problem, because in a few years environmental crises can cause deep industrial and economic crises.

3. An enterprise is a separate institution that performs one or more different functions for the sale of goods or services. Crises are an indicator of the development of an individual enterprise, which may not correspond to the development of other enterprises or the industry as a whole.

An enterprise depends on external factors that characterize the state of the economy in which the enterprise operates. Changes in the economy lead to changes in the enterprise. If the economy is in a state of crisis, then this is reflected in the enterprise. However, the nature of the activity, scale, and potential of the enterprise play an important role here. It can quite successfully withstand external crisis situations or react sensitively to them.

For each individual enterprise there is its own ratio of internal and external crisis factors. Enterprises that are similar in structure and organization in a crisis situation can behave completely differently. Some will resist for a long time, others will be on the verge of bankruptcy, and others will benefit. The reasons are possible potential, strategy, high level of management, simple coincidence. All this reflects internal factors, which are the main weapon in the fight against external ones.

But there may be another situation when an enterprise enters a crisis under completely favorable external factors. Here the reasons are already internal difficulties, such as business conflicts, organizational problems, low professional level of employees, errors in decision making, poor quality marketing and many others.

Symptoms are the initial signs, the very first “calls”. Symptoms are the initial manifestation of a crisis situation, but the reasons lie much deeper; they can develop over a long period of time and depend on many factors. A sign of a crisis is an objective state or event that indicates the onset of a crisis.

The causes of a crisis are the events or phenomena that resulted in the crisis occurring. For example, inflation is a factor of crisis, but the reason will be an increase in the supply of money. Symptoms: rising prices, unexpected increases in wages, etc.

In an enterprise, a sign of a crisis can be, for example, a decrease in product quality, large loan debt, the cause is financial and economic difficulties, a deterioration in the general state of the economy, or an insufficient level of professionalism of employees. Symptoms are the first indicators of negative dynamics, an increase in financial issues, etc.

The financial crisis in an enterprise is one of the most dangerous crises, the outcome of which determines the future fate of the enterprise. It is the first step for other crises: technical, psychological, reputation crisis, etc.

The financial crisis is expressed in an acute lack of financial resources, an increase in loan debt, a reduction in production, employee dissatisfaction and many other factors. A financial crisis can lead to the closure of an enterprise, or it can be overcome by taking various measures - for example, reorganization.

Since crises relentlessly follow every stage of development of an enterprise and all its activities as a whole, any management must be anti-crisis, i.e. must take into account the dangers and possibilities of a crisis. It is most preferable to create anti-crisis departments at enterprises.

4. In order to understand crises well, you need to know the typology, because classifications are based on identifying any signs, which in itself is a hint.

Overcoming crises is a controlled process. The success of management largely depends on timely recognition of the crisis and its possible consequences. Signs of a crisis primarily differ in classification.

1. Scale. They are of great importance; it is much easier to overcome a local crisis than a crisis that has engulfed an entire enterprise or industry.

2. Direction. It is very important to initially determine the direction of the crisis and its problems in order to focus attention on the right moments.

3. Spicy. The same crisis can proceed differently depending on various factors: the general situation, the presence of other types of crises, the stage of development of an enterprise or industry.

4. Reasons. To overcome the crisis, it is necessary to eliminate its causes, the identification of which is the result of an anti-crisis study.

5. Phases of manifestation and their course.

6. Consequences.

The causes of the crisis depend on its factors, so they are also divided into external and internal.

External causes are a threat from outside, and since the socio-economic system interacts with many different subjects, the structure of external causes also has a rather complicated appearance.

Socio-economic factors of the overall development of the country:

Rising inflation; instability of the tax system - changes in the tax rate or the adoption of new taxes have a particularly strong impact on enterprises in the initial period of their development;

The instability of the government system - deep divisions in government bodies, which is why all other difficulties remain in the shadows;

Separation of powers into opposition, which entails disorderly decision-making;

A decrease in the level of income of the population is the basis for an increase in social tension and, as a consequence, the emergence of a social crisis;

The rise in unemployment is the result of economic and industrial crises and the cause of social crises.

2. Market factors:

Instability of the foreign exchange market;

Strengthening monopoly;

Reduction of market scope.

Other external factors:

Political instability;

Growth of criminal structures;

Natural and climatic reasons;

Natural disasters.

Internal causes of the crisis.

1. Management reasons:

Disagreements between participants in the management structure;

Lack of dynamics in management - over time, an enterprise or industry develops and acquires ever larger scales and forms, which requires a more extensive and differentiated management network. Lack of flexibility leads to “failure to keep pace” with development management;

High level of commercial risk - if an enterprise or business was created in risky conditions, then management may hold back the pace of development for some time, fearing losses. This may lead to the loss of a chance to take a place in the market or the gradual “fading” of the business;

Insufficient knowledge of market conditions;

Difficulties with accounting systems - for timely detection of a crisis, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of activities. In many ways, this is carried out through various reporting documents reflecting profits, expenses, costs, balance sheets, etc.;

Difficulties of marketing services.

2. Production reasons:

Outdated technical base;

Low labor productivity;

High energy consumption.

3. Market reasons:

Low competitiveness of the product;

Dependence on a constant limited number of suppliers and clients.

Survival in crisis situations requires the cohesion of all structures - economic, financial and managerial.

Control questions:

The main essence of crises. Describe the types of crises.

The essence of crises by industry.

What are the causes of crises?

Lecture 1. CONCEPT AND SIGNS OF INSOLVENCY AND BANKRUPTCY

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1. Concept, causes of crises and their types.

2. Concepts of insolvency and bankruptcy.

3. Types and stages of bankruptcy.

In the most general terms a crisis- this is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in a socio-economic system (organization), threatening its viability in the environment.

The essence of the crisis in terms of a specific economy can be defined as follows:

a crisis- this is a discrepancy in the activities of individual systems of the organization (economic, financial, social, etc.);

a crisis- This is insolvency, this is the growing danger of bankruptcy and liquidation of the organization.

The idea of a crisis is closely related to the essence and activities of the organization. Thus, in modern management literature, the concept of “organization” is considered as a group of people whose activities are consciously coordinated to achieve a common goal or goals; as a separate social unit in the general system of social division of labor. The following organizations can be considered: an individual firm, a bank, a company, an enterprise, an educational institution, etc.

To understand the essence of the crisis and its nature, consider two trends in the existence of an organization: functioning and development.

Operation- this is the maintenance of the life of the organization, the preservation of its integrity, qualitative certainty, and essential characteristics. Development- this is the acquisition by an organization of a new quality that strengthens its resilience in a changing external environment.

Functioning and development are interconnected and reflect the dialectical unity of the main trends of the socio-economic system. The functioning of an organization presupposes the obligatory presence of a subject of labor, means of labor and a person carrying out labor activities. The functioning of an organization is possible only with a certain correspondence between these factors of production, and the result must meet the interests and needs of a person.

Development characterizes changes in an object, means of labor and in a person. The criterion for these changes is an increase in labor productivity, the emergence of new technology, and an increase in production efficiency.

The connection between functioning and development is dialectical in nature. Functioning hinders development. Development destroys many functioning processes, but creates conditions for more sustainable functioning of the organization in the future. That is, a cyclical development trend arises, which reflects the periodic onset of crises.

Thus, the onset of crises is caused not only by subjective, but also by objective reasons, the very nature of the organization.

Crises can also arise in the functioning processes themselves. These may be, for example, contradictions between the level of technology and the qualifications of personnel, between technologies and the conditions of its use.

The concept of crisis is closely related to the concept of a socio-economic system, which can manifest the ability of its existence in two directions. These are functioning (preserving one’s special functions to maintain integrity) and development (acquiring new qualities and functions in a changing external environment). The relationship between these two trends is dialectical character: management of the achieved functioning has a stabilizing and at the same time restraining nature, and management of the development of the organization is of an innovative nature, destroying the process of the achieved level of functioning.

The aggravation of contradictions through the predominance of destructive forces creates the danger of the emergence and development of a crisis and threatens the viability of the socio-economic system, which is under pressure from negative external and internal factors.

The causes of the crisis may be:

objective- related to the cyclical needs of modernization and restructuring;

subjective- generated by errors and shortcomings in management.

The causes of the crisis can be external and internal. External reasons crises are associated with imperfect management at the macro- and microeconomic levels, with innovation (new scientific knowledge, the development of scientific and technological progress), with natural changes (for example, deterioration of the environmental situation), and finally, with force majeure circumstances. External reasons for the emergence and development of a crisis always exist, which is why it is so important to anticipate its possible manifestations. Internally The causes of the crisis are associated with ineffective management at the enterprise due to the lack of professionalism of personnel, the complication of activities due to the growth of the scale of business and the conservatism of the individual.

To understand the concept of crisis, it is important to foresee all possible consequences of crises, whether it be financial recovery or liquidation of an enterprise.

Coming out of a crisis is not always associated with positive consequences. A transition to a state of a new crisis, perhaps even deeper and longer, is possible.

The consequences of a crisis may be accompanied by sudden changes or a soft, long-term and progressive recovery from the crisis.

Post-crisis changes in the development of an enterprise can be long-term or short-term, as well as reversible or irreversible, and differ in qualitative or quantitative characteristics.

It should be noted that the economic crisis of the Soviet period belongs to the category of significant ones in terms of quantity and quality, duration of the period, and destructive consequences. It is all the more important to take into account the mistakes made and prevent a re-exacerbation of this crisis, similar to the default experienced, and to concentrate all positive efforts for a speedy recovery of the economy and society as a whole.

In the process of accounting and analysis of bankruptcies, it is important to determine the type of economic crisis and its features. Identification of the crisis will make it possible to more clearly highlight the parameters by which it will be possible to develop financial recovery plans that can be implemented and lead the enterprise out of the crisis.

Crises differ in their essence, causes of manifestation and consequences. The classification of crises is usually associated with the choice of means and methods of managing them.

The causes of the crisis may be objective and subjective character. Due to changes in the environment, they can be called external, and, for example, ineffective management or quiet sabotage of staff can be attributed to internal reasons. The causes of the crisis can be random and result from management errors and miscalculations.

The pattern of causes may be associated with the life cycle of an enterprise, industry and society as a whole. Also, causes can appear naturally (earthquakes, hurricanes, floods) and be introduced artificially (terrorist acts).

The nature of the crisis may vary in several ways. The crisis can be deep, with the destruction of certain modules of the socio-economic system. And vice versa, proceed consistently and painlessly, under relaxed conditions.

Protracted crises last a long time, which indicates an inability to manage the situation. A short-term crisis covers a short period of time. A global crisis affects the entire socio-economic system, a local crisis affects part of it. The obvious nature of the crisis is immediately noticeable and easy to detect. In turn, a hidden crisis occurs unnoticed and is therefore the most dangerous.

The consequences of crises can lead to renewal or destruction, recovery or the emergence of a new crisis, weakening or aggravation, a smooth exit or a sharp aggravation of the crisis. For the reason" of occurrence

In the analysis of specific crisis situations, it is necessary to track the boundary lines of the socio-economic system, the structure of this
systems and operating environment.

According to the degree of controllability, the crisis is classified as ungovernable And controlled.

The causes of the crisis may be natural(human living conditions with climate change and disasters), ecological(depletion of resources, environmental pollution, emergence of technologies dangerous to humans, etc.)" social nature (conflict of interests and aggravation of contradictions of social groups: workers and employers, etc.), political(political instability of society, foreign economic policy of the state, severance of economic ties, loss of markets, changes in the conditions of export of imports, imperfection of legislation in the field of economic law, antimonopoly policy and other manifestations of the regulatory function of the state) economic(acute contradictions in the economic state of the organization. These can be crises of overproduction and sales of goods; relationships between partners; non-payments; loss of competitive advantages. In this group, a special place is occupied by financial crises, which characterize the contradictions between the income and expenses of the organization. The financial crisis manifests itself in the form delays in wage payments, non-payments).

Psychological crises manifest themselves in the form of stress that becomes widespread, in the emergence of a feeling of uncertainty, fear for the future;

Technological- this is a crisis of new technological ideas, which manifests itself in the form of aggravation of contradictions between trends in scientific and technological progress and the capabilities of the organization.

A crisis is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in a socio-economic system (organization), threatening its viability in the environment.

The causes of the crisis may be different. They are divided into objective, related to the cyclical needs of modernization and restructuring, and subjective, reflecting errors and voluntarism in management, as well as natural, characterizing climate phenomena, earthquakes, etc. Economic crises reflect acute contradictions in the country’s economy or the economic state of an individual enterprise or firm . These are crises in the production and sale of goods, relationships between economic agents, crises of non-payments, loss of competitive advantages, bankruptcy, etc.

The root cause of crises is the gap between the production and consumption of goods.

Within the framework of a subsistence economy, there was a direct connection between production and consumption and therefore there were no conditions for economic crises. The opportunity for them arose and expanded with the development of commodity production and circulation. After commodity production became the dominant form of organization of production, and the market became its spontaneous regulator, the gap between production and consumption, both in time and in space, increased sharply. In conditions of disaster and anarchy of production, economic crises have become an objective pattern.

The causes of the crisis can be external and internal. The first are related to trends and strategies of macroeconomic development or even the development of the world economy, competition, and the political situation in the country; the second - with a risky marketing strategy, internal conflicts, shortcomings in the organization of production, imperfect management, innovation and investment policies.

If we understand the crisis in this way, we can state the fact that the danger of a crisis always exists and it must be foreseen and predicted.

The reasons can also be divided into the following groups:

a) economic - the crisis state of the country's economy, a general decline in production, inflation, instability of the financial system, rising prices for resources, changes in market conditions, insolvency and bankruptcy of partners, monopolization of the market. One of the reasons for the insolvency of business entities may be the incorrect fiscal policy of the state;
b) social - rising unemployment; reduction of salaries for public sector employees, payments to pensioners, military personnel; increasing differentiation of incomes of the population; personnel crisis; reducing the minimum wage; social and health insurance policy crisis; intellectual crisis; growth of social conflicts and moral degradation of society. Social crises arise when contradictions aggravate or clash of interests of various social groups or entities: workers and employers, trade unions and entrepreneurs, workers of various professions, personnel and managers, etc.;
c) political - political instability of society, foreign economic policy of the state, severance of economic ties, loss of markets, changes in the conditions of export and import, imperfection of legislation in the field of economic law, antimonopoly policy, business activity and other manifestations of the regulatory function of the state;
d) demographic - the size, composition of the population, the level of well-being of the people, determining the size and structure of needs and the effective demand of the population;
e) increased international competition in connection with the development of scientific and technological progress.

Figure 1 - Classification of the causes of the crisis.

Crises can have different impacts on the development of socio-economic systems. The destruction or renewal of the organization, its recovery, or the emergence of a new, more destructive crisis is possible.

The crisis is going through several stages in its dynamics:

- latent, hidden period, when its prerequisites are maturing, but have not yet broken through;
- a period of collapse, a rapid aggravation of all contradictions, a sharp deterioration in all indicators of dynamics. During this period, the elements of the next system representing the future gain strength, openly appear and enter into struggle;
- a period of mitigation of the crisis, creation of prerequisites for overcoming it, transition to a phase of depression, ensuring a temporary balance between the system that has lost its former strength and the established one, which has shown its strength, a new one.

Crises caused by the cyclical dynamics of socio-economic development are predictable. Management with the help of various management influences can mitigate crisis manifestations, reduce and minimize losses. Any crisis, if it is not clearly lethal, also includes an anti-crisis, i.e. a moment of recovery

Crises are progressive, no matter how painful they are. A crisis performs three most important functions in the dynamics of systems movement:

- a sharp weakening and elimination of outdated elements of the dominant system, which has already exhausted its potential;
- clearing the way for the approval of the initially weak elements of the new system, the future cycle;
- strength test and inheritance of those elements of the system that accumulate and pass into the future.

Table 1 - Types of crises