Currency market.

The reason for the change in the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar may be...

1) introduction of a currency exchange tax in Russia

2) change in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the German mark

3) currency intervention by the Central Bank of Russia

With an increase in demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market and a constant supply of dollars, the ruble exchange rate:

1) will increase, and the dollar exchange rate will fall; 2) will increase, but the dollar exchange rate will not change; 3) will fall and the dollar will rise; 4) will not change, but the dollar exchange rate will fall.

Choose one of 4 answer options:

4) stabilization of the ratio of Russian imports and exports of raw materials

The Russian government has introduced a duty on the export of oilseeds. This...

Select several of 3 answer options:

1) can help increase the revenue side of the state budget

2) will contribute to a reduction in the production of oilseeds in Russia

3) will help reduce prices for oilseeds on the domestic market

They are NOT interested in increasing the exchange rate of the Finnish mark against the US dollar...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Finnish company importing American cars

2) Finns going on a business trip to the USA

3) Finnish company “SUPER-MO”, exporting skis to the USA

4) lovers of Spanish caramel “Chupa Chups” who buy it in stores in Helsinki

After a country introduces import duties on goods imported from the United States, the first reaction of the foreign exchange market may be:

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency as a result of a decrease in imports and a fall in demand for dollars

2) depreciation of the national currency due to increased imports and increased demand for dollars

3) the absence of any changes in the exchange rate of the national currency, since it is in no way related to the dynamics of export and import volumes

4) an increase in the dollar exchange rate due to a decrease in imports and a fall in demand for dollars

The introduction of import duties in the country contributes to...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) increasing the gains of domestic producers and reducing the gains of domestic consumers

2) increasing the gains of domestic consumers and reducing the gains of domestic producers

3) increasing the gains of domestic consumers and increasing the gains of domestic producers

4) reducing the gains of domestic consumers and reducing the gains of domestic producers

Let's assume that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the German mark will increase. At the same time, the purchasing power of the dollar in US markets...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) will grow; 2) will increase in proportion to the growth of the dollar against the mark; 3) will fall; 4) may not change

In the spring of 1995, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell to a record low for the entire post-war period. This is why we lost...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Americans planning a trip to Japan

2) American companies serving Japanese tourists

3) sellers of American cars in the US domestic market

4) American firms exporting goods to Japan

Which statements are true? Answer YES or NO.

The introduction of an import duty helps reduce domestic prices for a given product.

The introduction of import duties increases state budget revenues.

If the bank discount rate (refinancing rate) in the United States increases while the bank discount rate in Japan remains unchanged, this will contribute to the fact that the dollar exchange rate against the yen...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) can either decrease or increase; 2) will increase; 3) will decrease; 4) will not change

When devaluing one's currency, goods from domestic producers immediately become significantly cheaper in foreign markets

The state of the foreign exchange market in the country and the exchange rate of the national currency depend on the general economic situation and do not depend in any way on internal inflation

Which of the following effects should be expected immediately after an increase in ruble interest rates in Russia?

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Decrease in profits of Russian exporting firms

2) Increase in investment expenses of Russian companies

3) Decrease in the ruble exchange rate

4) Stimulating the outflow of foreign capital from Russia

An increase in the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other currencies (for 1 dollar you need to pay more other currencies than before), ceteris paribus, means that

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Japanese cars will become more expensive for American consumers

2) Exporting American wheat will become cheaper for other countries

3) Vacations in Europe will become more expensive for Americans

4) Imported wine will become less expensive for Americans

The official reduction by the state of the exchange rate of its banknotes for the currencies of other countries, i.e., an increase in the number of these banknotes that can be obtained for each unit of foreign currency is called.....

Write down your answer:

__________________________________________

The Russian government's increase in customs duties on imported consumer goods may be beneficial...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) domestic enterprises producing similar goods

2) domestic enterprises working for export

3) consumers

4) only to the state

The tax on goods and services imported into the country is called...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) customs duties; 2) income tax; 3) value added tax; 4) stamp duty

The depreciation of the dollar against the ruble will contribute...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) increasing the volume of imports of goods to Russia

2) increasing the volume of exports of goods from Russia

3) stabilization of the ratio of Russian food imports and exports

4) stabilization of the ratio of Russian imports and exports of raw materials

A Russian importer buys a batch of perfume. In this case, on the foreign exchange market:

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) demand for rubles increases; 2) the supply of rubles will decrease; 3) demand for the euro increases; 4) the supply of euros will decrease

Which of the following events is most likely to shift the gasoline supply curve in the Russian market to the right?

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Increase in the minimum wage

2) Reduced prices for imported equipment for oil refining

3) Cancellation of all restrictions related to the export of Russian oil

4) Increase in electricity tariffs

Which statements are true? Answer Yes or NO.

When devaluing their currency, the goods of foreign firms in the domestic market immediately become more expensive

If significantly more American goods are sold in Russia than Russian goods are sold in the United States, and the greater the gap between the amounts of rubles and dollars offered for mutual exchange, the higher the dollar exchange rate.

An increase in customs duty rates on goods imported by shuttle traders may lead to...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) the supply of these goods will increase, prices will decrease. State revenues from collecting duties will certainly increase

2) the supply of these goods will decrease, prices will rise. State revenues from collecting duties will certainly increase

3) the supply of these goods will decrease, prices will rise. Government revenues from collecting duties may decrease

4) the supply of these goods will decrease, prices will rise. State revenues from collecting duties will certainly decrease.

Let's assume. 1 ton of bananas in one of the African countries cost 120 monetary units of this country. The country exports bananas to the USA, where the price of bananas at an exchange rate of 5 local currency units per $1 was $24 per 1 ton. If the price level in the country did not change, then when the local currency rate fell to 20 monetary units per $1, the price of bananas in the USA will be:

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) 4.8 dollars per 1t; 2) 6 dollars for 1t; 3) $480 for 1t; 4) 4 dollars for 1t

If the Central Bank of Russia releases dollars from its reserves onto the open market, the immediate result of this will be...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) an increase in the supply of dollars and a fall in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble

2) an increase in demand for dollars and a fall in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble

3) increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank

4) increasing the reserve requirements of the Central Bank

An increase in customs duties on food products imported into Russia is most likely...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) would reduce prices for domestically produced food products

2) would reduce the demand for food imported from other countries

3) would increase food imports to Russia

4) would increase prices for domestically produced food products

The direct exchange of goods for goods without the use of money in the economy is called...

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) cashless payment; 2) free trade; 3) market failure; 4) barter

Examples of trade barriers are...

Select several of 3 answer options:

1) customs duties; 2) quotas; 3) standards for goods imported into the country

From the list below, select reasons for creating a national currency.

Select several of 5 answer options:

1) makes it easier for the government to find funds to pay those who receive money directly from the state

2) allows the state to manage the course of affairs in the country’s economy

3) allows you to ensure the full sovereignty of the country, its independence from the will of the governments of other countries

4) helps to avoid inflation, which plagues the currencies of other countries

5) helps to carry out international trade

Which of the following could be the main reason why the specialization of the two countries will not bring benefits to its participants?

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) Lack of possibility of voluntary exchange; 2) Existence of trade barriers; 3) Lack of money; 4) Lack of market mechanisms

Which of the following distinguishes an import quota from an import duty?

Choose one of 4 answer options:

1) A quota helps to increase the profits of domestic producers, and a duty helps to reduce

2) Duty rates are set by the government authorities of the country importing the goods, while the quota is always the result of a joint decision of the government bodies of the exporting country and the importing country.

3) A quota is a direct restriction on the quantity of an imported product, and a duty is a tax on an imported product

4) The introduction of a duty, as a rule, increases the price of a product on the domestic market, whereas when a quota is established, this price usually does not change

Answers:

1) (1 b.) Correct answers: 1; 2; 3;

2) (1 b.) Correct answers: 3;

3) (1 b.) Correct answers: 1;

4) (1 b.) Correct answers: 1; 2; 3;

5) (1 b.) Correct answers: 3;

6) (1 b.) Correct answers: 1; Report

Such participation Maybe significantly affect... predicted results By many reasons. Acquisition... other things being equal, change course ruble By attitude To dollar USA and the euro affects... in accordance with paragraph 8 articles 55 of the Federal Law "On...

The stock price, all other things being equal: a on the secondary securities market is higher compared to the price of the same shares on the primary market; b will tend to increase if bank interest rates on deposits increase

Document

3. Decline course ruble By attitude To dollar beneficial for the Russians... Reason changes ruble By attitude to euro Maybe become: 1) introduction of a currency exchange tax in the Russian Federation; 2) change course Euro By attitude...decided by governments USA

As stated in the materials of the Ministry of Economic Development for amendments to the 2017 budget, the authorities predict a continued weakening of the Russian currency against the dollar. As TASS writes with reference to documents from the ministry, in November the ruble will drop to 62.1 rubles. per dollar, and in December – up to 63 rubles.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average exchange rate of the ruble in 2017 is expected to be 59.4 rubles per dollar, in 2018 - 64.7 rubles, in 2019 - 66.9 rubles. At the same time, the ministry expects that the ruble will continue to weaken in 2018 and 2019. In the first quarter of 2018, the average rate will be 63.9 rubles per dollar, in the second quarter - 64.3 rubles, in the third quarter - 64.9 rubles, in the fourth quarter - 65.7 rubles. In the first quarter of 2019, as the Ministry of Economic Development expects, the exchange rate will decrease to 66.3 rubles per dollar, in the second quarter - to 66.6 rubles, in the third quarter - to 67.2 rubles, in the fourth quarter - to 67.5 rubles.

If we talk about the current developments, somewhat ambiguous data on the US labor market, published last Friday, provoked an increase in exchange rates on the local foreign exchange market, says Alexander Egorov, currency strategist at TeleTrade Group of Companies. Both the dollar and the euro strengthened against the ruble by the end of the session the day before. The beginning of a new week also indicates continued interest in currency purchases. The dollar is trading above 58 rubles, the euro is also fixed above 68 rubles. A whole set of factors exerts negative pressure on the national currency. On the one hand, market participants’ confidence in the December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve has a negative impact on interest in Russian assets and, as a result, on the ruble.

On the other hand, the analyst notes, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that the Bank of Russia is pursuing too tight a monetary policy, which has led to an excessive reduction in inflation by one percent below the target level of 4%. There is a high probability that in such conditions the Bank of Russia will once again reduce the rate from the current 8.5% to 8.0 - 7.5% in the coming months. The ruble is also negatively impacted by lower oil prices, which has led to structural shifts to lower trading ranges for both benchmark grades. For the foreseeable time horizon, the North Sea mixture Brent will be traded in the range of 53.40 – 56.30 dollars per barrel, light Texas WTI – in the range of 48.10 – 50.50 dollars per barrel.

The technical picture, Alexander Egorov is sure, also points to the preconditions for an increase in exchange rates. The dollar on the local market can test the strength of the levels of 58.50 and 58.85. A breakdown of the last level, TeleTrade predicts, will mean a transition to a higher trading range of 58.85 – 60.40, with a subsequent increase to the area of ​​62 rubles per unit of US currency. Thus, the implementation of this scenario fits perfectly into the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. The euro exchange rate has already approached the zone of 68.40-68.50, a breakdown of which upward will serve as a signal for medium-term purchases of the single currency with targets of about 70 rubles and then 72.25.

Counter-forecast

As Andrey Dirgin, director of the analytical department at Alfa-Forex, says, of course, the economic bloc of the government is now interested in a cheap ruble, which is beneficial for exporters. Therefore, the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is aimed at supporting demand for cash currency.

But we believe, the analyst says, that the ruble will only strengthen until the end of October against the backdrop of rising world oil prices. The forecast for the end of October is 57.25 kopecks per unit of US currency. Against the background of growing demand for oil and stable supply, Alfa-Forex is confident that the imbalance in the direction of demand for “black gold” will grow until the end of the year.

The rise in oil prices will also be facilitated by the gradual recovery of the global economy; China, India and the United States remain the main drivers of global GDP growth. Therefore, the demand for oil will gradually increase, and the supply on the market is limited by the agreement of the world's major oil producers not to increase production. Thus, the ruble, which is highly correlated with oil quotes, has a chance of strengthening to 56.75 per unit of US currency. Our forecast for oil is the weighted average price per barrel of Brent in the fourth quarter - $55.

We will not act

The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development has a good chance of being realized, believes, in turn, the head of the Department of Private Solutions Singapore Castle Family office Stanislav Werner. The dollar against the ruble has already been at a low start in recent weeks, and only unexpectedly strong deflation data in September (for the first time in history, prices have fallen for two months in a row) were able to put growth into pause mode.

Foreigners, the expert notes, continue to play on the difference in interest rates, actively buying Russian government debt, but capital flows will soon reverse. This may happen before the Bank of Russia meeting on October 27, which will further reduce the possibility of such earnings by lowering the key rate. In the United States, wage growth began to accelerate, which, together with the expectation of approval of fiscal reform, will force the American Central Bank to act. The next tightening of monetary policy may occur in December.

According to Stanislav Werner, we can expect the dollar to strengthen against all currencies without exception, and the ruble will not be able to oppose anything to this. Especially considering the lack of a reserve of safety in the form of reserves of cash dollars in the banking system and the likely decline in oil prices. Unlike the third quarter, in which the price of black gold rose by 20%, there is no longer any previous support in the form of the road travel season in the United States. Many refineries will be closed for scheduled maintenance during this period, which will limit the demand for crude oil. This will also be driven by the uncertainty of OPEC's position on the issue of extending the deal to limit oil production - it is possible that the decision will be postponed from November until next year.

In addition to the deteriorating situation in the energy market and the Fed’s policy, payments on external debt will also play against the ruble - in December, banks and corporations will have to return about $14 billion. Therefore, Stanislav Werner believes, the dollar/ruble exchange rate has only one way - up. The only question is the pace of this increase. 62 rub. in November against the current 58.3 rubles. looks aggressive, but given the current conditions it looks quite possible.

15. The Russian government’s increase in customs duties on imported consumer goods may be beneficial

a) domestic enterprises producing similar goods;

b) domestic enterprises operating for export;

c) consumers;

d) only to the state.

16. If the Central Bank of Russia releases dollars from its reserves onto the open market, the immediate result of this will be

a) an increase in the supply of dollars and a fall in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble;

b) an increase in demand for dollars and a fall in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble;

c) increasing the discount rate of the Central Bank;

d) increasing the reserve requirements of the Central Bank.

17. The introduction of an import duty in a country contributes to

a) increasing the gains of domestic producers and reducing the gains of domestic consumers;

b) increasing the gains of domestic consumers and reducing the gains of domestic producers;

c) increasing the gains of domestic consumers and increasing the gains of domestic producers;

d) a decrease in the gains of domestic consumers and a decrease in the gains of domestic producers.

18. If the bank discount rate (refinancing rate) in the United States increases while the bank discount rate in Japan remains unchanged, this will contribute to the fact that the dollar exchange rate against the yen

a) can either decrease or increase;

b) will increase;

c) will decrease;

d) will not change.

19. Suppose that the US dollar rises against the German mark. At the same time, the purchasing power of the dollar in US markets

a) will grow;

b) will increase in proportion to the growth of the dollar against the mark;

c) will fall;

d) may not change.

20. In the spring of 1995, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell to a record low for the entire post-war period. We lost because of this

a) Americans planning a trip to Japan;

b) American companies serving Japanese tourists;

c) sellers of American cars in the US domestic market;

D) American firms exporting goods to Japan.

21. Which of the following distinguishes an import quota from an import duty?

22. The depreciation of the dollar against the ruble will contribute to

23. The tax on goods and services imported into the country is called

a) customs duties;

b) income tax;

c) value added tax;

d) stamp duty.

24. The law of comparative advantage discovered:

a) A. Smith;

b) D. Ricardo;

c) A. Marshall;

d) J. Keynes;

25. Which of the following distinguishes an import quota from an import duty?

a) A quota helps to increase the profits of domestic producers, and a duty helps to reduce them.

b) Duty rates are set by the government authorities of the country importing the product, while a quota is always the result of a joint decision by the government authorities of the exporting country and the importing country.

c) A quota is a direct restriction on the quantity of an imported good, and a duty is a tax on an imported good.

d) The introduction of a duty, as a rule, increases the price of a product on the domestic market, whereas when a quota is established, this price usually does not change.

26. The depreciation of the dollar against the ruble will contribute to

a) increasing the volume of imports of goods to Russia;

b) increasing the volume of exports of goods from Russia;

c) stabilizing the ratio of Russian food imports and exports;

d) stabilization of the ratio of Russian imports and exports of raw materials.

27. According to the Heckscher-Ohlin model of comparative advantage, countries specialize in the production of products based on their comparison:

a) production costs;

b) the cost of factors of production;

c) marginal utilities of the goods exchanged;

d) labor costs.

28. The exchange rate is characterized by:

a) the ratio of national currencies, determined by their purchasing power;

b) gold content of the monetary unit;

c) the ratio of national currencies in accordance with their gold content;

d) the ratio of national currencies established by a strong-willed decision.

With the next increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar, many Russians are hopeful about when the dollar will fall. After all, their purchasing power of imported goods that have flooded store shelves depends on this. Loans taken out in foreign currency, which have lower interest rates than loans in rubles, become more difficult to repay. Especially when it comes to loans for a car or an apartment, where the monthly payment is very large, and its increase by 10-20% greatly affects the family budget.

To understand whether the dollar will fall or rise in the near future or in the long term, it is necessary to study a number of factors that weaken and strengthen both the US currency and the Russian ruble. Indeed, under constant conditions, if the dollar exchange rate on the world market is stable, and any factors weaken the Russian ruble, then the value of the American monetary unit in Russian rubles will increase. And, conversely, when the Russian ruble strengthens, its exchange rate will rise against the dollar. Suffice it to recall the period from 2004 to August 2008. At this time, it fell from a value of 32 rubles to 23 rubles, 41 kopecks. Does this mean that we can expect the US currency to depreciate? Perhaps, but first things first.

Factors that influence the dollar exchange rate against the ruble

So, in order for the dollar to depreciate the Russian ruble, it is necessary that some factors strengthen the domestic currency, while other factors destabilize the American monetary unit.

How necessary this is and who can benefit from it will be discussed below. Let us now consider a possible model of such a possible situation.

In order for the national currency of any country to strengthen and increase its value, it is necessary for it to experience GDP growth; this growth is stable and depends on many factors. Low unemployment, positive foreign trade balance and its high value, positive trends in the economy, ensuring high domestic demand. In addition, it is necessary that as many transactions as possible be carried out on the world market in this currency. That is, when buying and selling these goods and services, calculations were carried out in precisely the currency that they want to see strong, and therefore trusted.

Important factors, although very specific, are the presence of public debt and the issue of currency. The higher it is, the more destabilizing the currency of that country is. However, as practice shows, almost all countries with developed economies have very large public debt, which is not only greater than their GDP, but 1.5 or more times higher than it. For example, the UK's national debt is almost 4 times its GDP. However, this does not prevent the pound sterling from demonstrating steady growth.

On the other hand, the presence of public debt in countries with economies in transition amounting to 30-80% of their GDP already significantly affects the exchange rate of their currencies. This phenomenon occurs because in developed countries, positive factors simultaneously have a strengthening effect on the currency, while in the second group of countries there are few such factors.

As for the issue of currency, the more it is printed, the less demand there is for it. This truism does not work in the case of the dollar. Its emission occurs a long time ago and served as the reason for the abolition of the gold standard. Around the world, the dollar accounts for 2/3 of all money printed, but the demand for it is only growing. Similar behavior with the currencies of other countries leads to huge inflation and the depreciation of that currency to the value of the paper on which it is printed.

Is the US economy strengthening?

The US economy has long been a leading economy. With a negative trade balance, the United States is the world's largest consumer, driving production growth in many countries. Despite the fact that the country consumes more than it imports, this does not cause the exchange rate of its national currency to falter. The growth in the value of the dollar in 2014 was surprising. What was unexpected was that various experts, both domestic and foreign, predicted not just a fall in the US currency, but its collapse in the very near future. The monetary stimulus programs carried out since 2010 were supposed to be the final nails in the coffin of the entire American economy, and with it the entire global economy.

However, in reality, it turned out that currency stimulation not only turned out to be the straw that was laid under the collapsing US financial system in 2010 and continued to increase the amount of this straw. It turned out that this was exactly the locomotive that pulled the entire US economy to a relatively new qualitative level. The fall in unemployment is 1.6 times less than in two years from the end of 2012 to the first half of 2014, and an increase in domestic demand, which ensured a growth rate of GDP of 3% or more. Moreover, the growth in domestic demand was qualitative, and this was immediately reflected in the growth in the purchase of new housing, which in a certain period of time reached 130% compared to the same period a year ago.

Factors that influence the Russian ruble

As for the economic situation in Russia, it should be noted that it is among the top ten leading countries, occupying 6-7th place. This is a lot and makes us feel proud of our state, that, despite more than two decades of deindustrialization, the existence of corruption as a system-forming vertical of the state, our economy, although not ahead of the rest, is on the way to it. But if you look closely, it turns out that the lion’s share of our GDP is provided by exports, which are 2/3 of raw materials, depending on world prices for oil and petroleum products. How good or bad is this?

Taken as a whole, this is bad. Oil prices have risen significantly over the past 10 years. If before 2004 the cost of a barrel of oil did not exceed $30, and most often was in the range of $9-15, then since 2004, in literally three years, the cost of a barrel of oil crossed the $100 mark, which ensured the growth of the country's GDP from $1.6 trillion. up to $2.5 trillion.

If you look at fluctuations in the price of oil, it is during this period that it also occurs in relation to the Russian ruble. The cost of black gold is growing, the dollar is becoming cheaper. Oil is becoming cheaper, and the cost of “green” is steadily rising. In this case, the following dependence is derived. With oil prices in the range of $110-120, its exchange rate will be in the range of 30-35 rubles. If the cost of black gold decreases to the range of $100-110, the US currency rate reaches 36-38 rubles per $1. A further reduction in the cost of the fossil to $80-90 will lead to the fact that for $1 they will give 45-50 rubles.

The dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials is precisely the destabilizing factor that has the most serious impact on the value of the dollar within Russia. At the same time, the positive foreign trade balance that the country’s economy has demonstrated over the past 10 years strongly depends on raw material exports. A decrease in world oil prices may lead to the balance of this balance decreasing critically and changing its value from minus to plus.

On the other hand, you shouldn’t expect the prices of black gold to drop significantly in the next two or three years. Not a single exporting country is interested in this, and primarily Saudi Arabia, which has its own long-term projects in economics and geopolitics that require a certain and sustainable supply of petrodollars. Iran and Libya, which could help lower the price of oil in this case, nevertheless do not have sufficient volumes that could have a significant impact on the world market.

There is another dangerous scenario for the Russian Federation, in which world prices for black gold could decline. In the United States, in connection with the political crisis in Ukraine and the declaration of Crimea as a subject of the Russian Federation, the issue of releasing large quantities of oil from strategic reserves onto the world market was seriously considered. Despite the large volumes of expected additional oil supply from the United States, this led to a decrease in the cost of 1 barrel by $10-15, no more. Such a decrease is not critical for the Russian economy, since budget planning takes into account the cost of black gold at $90-95 per barrel.

On the other hand, if oil prices again reach $120-130 per barrel, this will inevitably lead to a drop in the dollar exchange rate to 28-30 rubles per $1. There is no reason to expect such an increase in oil prices, since the demand for this fossil is not expected to increase. However, the destabilization of the situation in the Middle East and the escalation of armed conflicts in this region may change this situation.

Russia and the creation of the Development Bank

In order for the dollar exchange rate to begin to decline, it is necessary for a number of countries to reduce mutual settlements on the world market using American currency to a certain level. In May 2014, Russia and China came to an agreement to conduct mutual settlements between them in national currencies. This is despite the fact that these countries are increasing trade turnover, reaching $90 billion in 2014. This is not the first time that countries are abandoning the dollar in mutual settlements with each other.

Previously, the same agreements were reached between China and Japan, China and Iran, China and Brazil, China and Chile, Japan and India, India and Iran.

The new structure, called the Development Bank and Reserve Fund, with an authorized capital of $100 billion, aims to invest in the economies of developing countries in order to promote industrial products and services produced in the BRICS countries to their markets. For Russia, this will allow increasing the share of mechanical engineering in exports, reducing dependence on raw materials. In addition, this will increase the number of jobs in the country and domestic consumption, which will generally have a strengthening effect on the ruble.

But the fact of the matter is that these steps will be able to stop or stop the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble. The relatively stable economic situation in Russia makes it possible to maintain the growth of the US currency, which increases slightly. For example, in the first quarter of 2014, the Ukrainian hryvnia fell in price against the dollar by 1.42 times.

Military expansion as a way to weaken the national currency

Nothing weakens the American dollar more than the protracted hostilities waged by the United States in the Middle East. Despite the fact that war spurs the growth of production in the country itself, any war requires colossal expenses, which generally have a weakening effect on both the economy and the exchange rate of the national currency. The United States, unlike all other countries, incurs staggering costs to maintain its military machine and its military operations. A missile that is fired from an airplane and kills three militants costs from $500 thousand to $2 million. As noted in Congress, if a tenth of the cost of this missile were used to bribe these militants, the United States would get three volunteers fighting on their side.

As for further military operations with the participation of the United States, this country is trying as much as possible to refrain from full-scale military operations of the type that they carried out in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2003-2005. The use of hybrid warfare technologies is in full swing. In Syria and Libya, the war against government troops is being waged by so-called militias. But the United States actively supports them with money, weapons, instructors and fighters from outside. In such a situation, it is sometimes difficult to understand whether there are citizens of this country among the militias.

During 2004-2013, a full-scale conflict between the United States and Iran was expected, and this would lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar against the Russian ruble. The conflict in the Persian Gulf could lead to a decrease in oil supplies to the world market and an increase in its cost. Accordingly, the Russian national currency would have strengthened greatly, and this would have allowed the dollar to fall to below 30 rubles per $1. Everything would depend on the duration of the conflict, although in the case of Iran one cannot expect a quick surrender, as in Iraq.

What are the consequences of a fall in the US currency?

On the other hand, how beneficial would a fall in the dollar exchange rate be for Russia? The high exchange rate of the ruble leads to the fact that exported goods increase in price. This means they are losing their competitiveness. They are bought less, exports decrease, less foreign money comes into the country, which means the demand for them increases, and the demand for domestic currency decreases. This will lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate.

But in addition to another increase in the dollar exchange rate, unemployment in the country will increase, because fewer goods will need to be produced due to a decrease in demand for Russian goods on the world market. A decrease in exports will create a gap in the country’s budget; it will become impossible to pay salaries to state employees, pensions, or implement social programs. That is, not only will the US currency exchange rate return to its previous place, and perhaps increase even more, but a crisis may begin in the country, reminiscent in its properties of a crisis of overproduction.

Will the dollar exchange rate fall in the near future? Will it be able to drop to 30-50 rubles. Expert forecasts for 2019.
An interesting situation has arisen: there are hundreds and thousands of experts who know when the dollar will fall, but almost all of them prefer to keep their savings in this currency. Moreover, these experts prefer to receive their fees in dollars, despite what they predict in the near future.

Every year, Russian viewers and readers are convinced of the collapse of the overseas currency, that it will soon fall greatly, but not only does it not collapse, but it is also strengthening. A few months before the end of 2018 and the onset of the New Year holidays, analysts of various stripes were convincingly arguing when the dollar would fall in 2019.

It is enough to ask thirty different financial analysts for their opinion on the future exchange rate of the American currency, and there will be those who will claim that in a few months they will give 100 rubles for $1. There is also the opposite opinion that the ruble is undervalued, its value in relation to the American currency will certainly increase.

These forecasts are born due to the fact that such experts take as a basis one economic model and several factors. If we consider them, then in accordance with the laws of economics, the American currency should really become cheaper or soon turn into simple paper. But it happens differently for the reason that not several factors operate simultaneously, but much more, and any economic model does not exist in isolation, constantly being influenced and distorted.

For example, negative factors that weaken the currency include:

• excessive issue of unsecured banknotes;
• high level of public debt;
• the relationship of the dollar to other world currencies;
• if imports exceed exports.

But on all these points, the United States occupies a leading position. The country has the highest level of public debt, its dollar is so issued that no other currency that belongs to any developed state can compare with this. Finally, it is the states that import the most, with a persistently negative foreign trade balance.

However, countries prefer to fill their gold and foreign exchange reserves with dollars, and until recently this was the most purchased currency for these purposes.

Settlements on the world market are predominantly carried out in American currency.

Russia supplied Iran with military equipment, and Iran paid it off in dollars.

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The Arabs sold oil to the Chinese, and the Chinese paid for it with green bills. The Turks or Chinese brought their own goods to Russia, Belarus or Ukraine and received dollars in return. All this increases the demand for the American currency and makes it very stable.

Behavior in relation to other currencies

But the behavior of other currencies in relation to the American currency is also important. They are also influenced by different factors. For example, Russia's GDP is approximately 10% dependent on oil sales. If its value rises on the world market, the influx of currency into the country increases, the demand for it decreases, the ruble strengthens and even increases in price relative to foreign monetary units. As soon as oil falls in price, the influx of currency into the country decreases, demand for it increases, and the dollar in Russia rises.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the country’s budget is formed taking into account the forecast of world prices for export goods. If these prices decrease, the forecasts do not come true; in order to get the same amount in rubles, it must be devalued.

If the ruble quickly loses its position against the dollar under the influence of unfavorable factors, then it is not possible to regain these positions. Therefore, there is no point in expecting any serious drop in the overseas currency or hoping that the dollar will fall to 50 rubles or lower. The dollar showed similar behavior in Kazakhstan, which is even more dependent on commodity exports.

The point is that each currency is influenced by the size of gold and foreign exchange reserves. As noted above, each country sought to form them, including at the expense of the American currency. This is the situation. If the dollar begins to depreciate, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the world's leading countries begin to depreciate along with it.

This leads to the devaluation of their own currencies, causing the dollar to outperform those currencies. That is, a vicious circle emerges - the overseas currency depreciates, followed by the depreciation of other banknotes from different countries of the world.

It would be another matter if the gold and foreign exchange reserves were filled in such a way as to displace the American currency from them. But here again a mine is laid. Once one country begins to empty its reserves of this currency, others will follow suit. At the same time, the dollar will sharply devalue, which will lead to the devaluation of other currencies, since they simply will not have time to get rid of the bulk of American banknotes - they will begin to depreciate faster.

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Dependence on the political situation

Events in the domestic and foreign policies of the United States and other countries have an impact on the overseas currency. A good example is the events of 2014-2015 in Ukraine. Prior to this, the hryvnia showed a sharp devaluation in 1998, when it depreciated by half, and in 2008, when the dollar in Ukraine increased by 1.6 times. Both in 1998 and 2008 there was a global crisis, which naturally affected the Ukrainian currency.

But after the tragic events in February 2014, the outbreak of war in the east of the country, the hryvnia began to depreciate sharply, its exchange rate against the dollar fell by almost 3.5 times, reaching a value of 27 UAH. for 1$. Although in February 2015 this figure reached 45 UAH. for $1 and above.

Compared to the rate that was in Ukraine before all the tragic events of this period, which is 8.15 UAH. for $1, such a drop in the national Ukrainian currency is considered unprecedented for the country.

The devaluation of the hryvnia is also intensified by the populist decisions of the new government, which by its actions has closed the Russian market for Ukrainian heavy industrial goods.

As a result, 33% of exports to Russia fell sharply (almost 5 times) and the decline in exports continues. Europe refuses to buy goods that do not go to Russia. The influx of foreign currency into the country has decreased sharply, this has greatly increased the demand for it.

Considering that the country is 54% dependent on exports, its reduction makes the budget deficit. In order to pay off all state employees and send the required amount of money to all areas vital for the state, it is necessary to devalue the national currency.

The same scheme will be true for other countries that want to destroy economic ties for the sake of illusory interests. For example, another such example is Libya, which had a high level of social standards before the overthrow of Gaddafi.

But political events in the United States may also trigger the process of devaluation of the national currency in the near future. This is possible if the country's president announces a policy of eliminating some government debts. Such a policy could lead to a devaluation of the “green” currency, as a result of which the dollar will fall to 50 rubles and below in 2019.