Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week. Dollar exchange rate forecast
This page collects information from various sources attempting to predict the dollar's exchange rate for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is simply impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.
Unfortunately, forecasts are not available at this time.
Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate
There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or euro (or rather, the exchange rate or strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the oil price chart and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency based on the corresponding movements in the prices of this energy carrier.
We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple odds that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.
Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar
Pearson coefficient = -0.7149
Well... If you want, you can see the correlation here.
If the Pearson coefficient in absolute value tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the interval under consideration. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these odds.
History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year
It can be seen that over time the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.
In summary, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the foreign exchange markets use their models, trained using machine learning, a bunch of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.
There are also a lot of sites on the Internet with outright trash. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, month, year - any period. By all indications, all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.
Let's see what the dollar exchange rate and its forecast for the week of November 19-23 promise us. Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave relative to the American currency.
The ruble ended last week with a rapid strengthening of its position against the world's leading currencies. Following the results of Friday's trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange consolidated around the level of 65.85 rubles/$, which is more than 2 rubles. below the previous week's close. The strengthening of the Russian currency was facilitated by reports that the United States did not have time to pass sanctions against Russia this year, as well as a rebound in oil prices.
Viktor Veselov, chief analyst of GLOBEX Bank Viktor Veselov:
We expect the ruble to weaken against the dollar in the first half of the week due to the redemption of Eurobonds from a number of large banks. This will require about $1.4 billion, based on data from the Bloomberg terminal. In addition, auctions for the placement of new US government debt will play in favor of the dollar: 3 and 6 month bills, notes, 10-year bonds. But closer to Friday, the ruble will strengthen, because preparations for tax payments will begin on November 26 and 28.
Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier:
Over the next week, the ruble will receive support from traditional preparations for the tax period. We also believe that market participants will closely monitor the actions of the country’s economic bloc. The Central Bank, in our opinion, in its latest statements regarding the likelihood of raising the key rate at the December meeting was able to sufficiently demonstrate to the markets the transparency of its position. If oil price dynamics remain stable and there is no news that would refute the extension of the sanctions deferment against the Russian Federation until the beginning of 2019, the ruble exchange rate will spend the next week in the range of 65.3-67.7 rubles/$.
Anatoly Saltykov, head of strategy development department at SMP Bank:
The Bank of Russia announced its intentions to consider increasing the key rate at its meeting in December, which acts as a support factor for the ruble. At the same time, good statistics on retail sales in the US is an additional argument in favor of a Fed rate hike, which the market also expects. This, in turn, supports the dollar. The tax period that has started is in favor of the ruble. Oil prices are rising despite increases in production volumes and growth in reserves, that is, there are no factors for strong growth yet, and what is happening in the markets now is more of a rebound rather than a trend reversal. Therefore, there are no guarantees of stable support for the ruble from oil. Sanctions rhetoric is not increasing, but risks still remain. A combination of factors creates high volatility in the market, which will continue throughout the week. We expect the pair's exchange rate to fluctuate within the range of 65.5-68.50 rubles/$.
Maxim Timoshenko, CFA, Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department at Russian Standard Bank:
In the coming week, the ruble will be supported by the starting tax period. It is worth noting that the ruble will additionally benefit from the news about the postponement of part of the United States sanctions against Russia until the beginning of next year. In addition, the ruble is favored by an attempt to restore the price of oil, which occurs against the backdrop of hopes for a reduction in OPEC+ production, designed to prevent an imbalance in supply and demand. And another important factor is the stopped growth of the US dollar against the currencies of developing countries due to increased risk appetite amid the resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China. And also, the Russian currency will continue to be put under pressure by the uncertainty with the second package of “chemical” sanctions scheduled for the end of November 2018.
Dmitry Kharlampiev, director of analytics at CIB Bank Otkritie:
The positive factors we saw last week remain relevant. In theory, on Friday night the second block of a package of sanctions against the Russian Federation should be introduced by the United States due to the “Skripal case”, however, according to media reports, a final decision on this issue has not yet been made, and additional restrictions in this case themselves should not be harsh. Let us also note the approaching tax period in the Russian Federation, during which about 1.15 trillion will be absorbed into the budget. in ruble terms. Now, we can say, the dollar exchange rate has a chance to drop to the level of 65 rubles, however, in the absence of additional triggers, continued consolidation near 66 rubles is more likely.
Mikhail Poddubsky, chief analyst of Promsvyazbank:
We do not see any reasons for a further strong weakening of the ruble from current levels and, in the base scenario, we expect the dollar/ruble pair to move in the range of 67-68 rubles/$ in the coming week. At the moment, the weakness of the entire group of EM currencies is due to the general strengthening of the dollar, and in addition to this, there is a possibility of worsening sanctions risks for the ruble in the coming weeks. Without the implementation of these factors, the Russian currency currently looks undervalued.
Denis Davydov, leading analyst at Nordea Bank:
Further noticeable strengthening of the ruble is unlikely to be expected due to the remaining sanctions risks. The benchmarks for the dollar-dollar pair next week will be 65.5-66.5. The ruble, taking into account the fact that sanctions risks have reduced their severity, will be more oriented towards the dynamics of emerging market currencies and oil prices. The factor of tax payments will continue to act as support.
Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate as of November 23, 2018
Banks Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$)
- Nordea Bank 65 – 66.8
- CIB Bank Otkritie 66
- Globex Bank 65 – 66.8
- Promsvyazbank 67-68
- "Russian Standard" 65.50-66.60
- SMP-bank 65.5-68.50
- Consensus forecast 66.40
The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts.
The Russian currency entered the final ten days of January at levels ₽56.7200/USD And ₽69.3850/euro, “giving” 19.5 kopecks to the US and EU currencies. and 25.5 kopecks. respectively. The main reason for the loss of positions is oil that fell below the 69-dollar mark ($68.61 at the close of the world session for the Brent grade versus $69.31 the day before).
The impetus for the reduction in the price of “black gold” was media reports about the readiness of American shale producers to increase production “to unprecedented volumes.” Even Baker Hughes statistics on drilling rigs in the US, favorable for oil bulls, could not stop the fall in prices (-5 active rigs per week, up to 747 units). The cost of a barrel at 08:12 Moscow time on Monday is $68.75.
In addition to the commodity market, pressure on the ruble continues to be exerted by the actions of the Ministry of Finance to purchase euros/dollars in increased volumes and the potential ban by the US authorities on work in the Russian government debt market (expectations of tougher sanctions forced non-residents to reduce activity to almost zero). The factor of the tax period helps the domestic currency to resist all this.
According to the editors of our portal, the main topic for participants in the upcoming auction will be playing out the situation with Turkey’s invasion of Syrian Afrin, populated by Kurds. Traders' reaction to this event may be unpredictable. Among analysts of Russian banks, however, there is no consensus regarding the key factor influencing the exchange rate.
“The main event of the week for the ruble will be the first payment of taxes this year,” believe B&N Bank.
The forecast of a representative of a credit institution, Natalya Shilova, assumes a decline in the dollar exchange rate. The range of RUR/USD fluctuations declared by her is ₽55.80–56.90.
At Nordea-Bank, the main event of the week is the meeting of the ECB management, the results of which will influence the assessment of the validity of previously announced forecasts about the upcoming narrowing of stimulus measures. Exchange rate guidelines from financial institute analyst Denis Davydov - ₽56.20–57.20.
Specialists at Globex JSCB consider the threats of American shale producers to increase production of “black gold” and the rhetoric of Western participants in the economic forum starting on Tuesday in Davos to be the determining events for currency quotes in the coming days.
— Plans to increase production and the discussion of sanctions by participants at the Swiss forum will weaken the position of the ruble in the first half of the week. Towards its end, the Russian currency will be able to win back losses thanks to the tax period, explained the bank’s analysts without indicating the values in the ruble/dollar pair.
SMP-Bank experts link the direction of movement of ruble pairs with the results of the meeting of the OPEC monitoring committee in Oman and the adoption of the federal budget. The forecast of the credit institution analyst Alexey Ilyushchenko does not imply significant changes in the USD exchange rate at the end of the current week.
Zenit Bank currency strategist Vladimir Evstifeev also does not believe in the possibility of exchange rate jumps, according to whom the most important event of the working five-day period, from the point of view of forming RUR/USD quotes, is the tax period.
“The “peak” of payments in the amount of ₽1.1 trillion may not provide support to the ruble due to the remaining excess liquidity,” he commented.
The Russian currency corrected downward during Friday trading, having left the levels for the weekend ₽65.9800/USD And ₽75.3500/euro. Ruble losses – 8.2 kopecks. and 66.7 kopecks. respectively. The reason for the “subsidence” is the urgent need for a correction after the rapid (by more than 2 rubles) growth on Wednesday-Thursday.
The energy market ended the previous week with a barrel at $66.76 (+1.14 dollars). The reason for the rise in the price of “black gold” is traders’ hopes that participants in the OPEC+ deal will reduce production. Brent spends Monday morning in positive territory ($67.34 at 08:25 Moscow time), ignoring another increase in drilling activity of American shale producers (+2 installations over the past week, up to 888 units, according to Baker Hughes).
During the coming week, according to experts, the chances of the dollar and the ruble strengthening their positions will be approximately equal. At the same time, there are no significant prerequisites for the weakening of these currencies, according to experts from Russian banks interviewed over the weekend.
— We see no reasons for a strong weakening of the ruble. In our base scenario, we focus on fluctuations in RUR/USD within the range of ₽67.00-68.00 until the end of the week,” Promsvyazbank shared their expectations.
“We expect the ruble to weaken in the first days of the week, followed by a restoration of positions closer to Friday,” Globex bankers predict.
The reasons for such movements, according to financial institution analyst Viktor Veselov, will be increased demand for dollar liquidity for upcoming repayments by large Russian banks totaling $1.4 billion and preparation for “peak” tax payments on November 26 and 28.
The range of dollar fluctuations announced by Globex analysts on Monday-Friday is ₽65.00-66.80. Representatives of Nordea Bank named exactly the same values for RUR/USD.
— The positive factors observed last week will remain relevant in the coming days. On Friday night, the United States was supposed to introduce a second set of sanctions “because of Skripal,” but, according to American media, there has not yet been a final decision on this issue. Moreover, additional restrictions should not be too stringent. This “slowness” of American politicians clearly plays on the side of the ruble, as well as the upcoming tax payment period in the Russian Federation, during which about RUB 1.15 trillion is expected to be absorbed into the budget. In such conditions, the dollar may drop to ₽65.00. At the same time, in the absence of additional triggers, it seems more likely that consolidation will continue near the 66-ruble mark, currency strategists at Otkritie Bank believe.
The factors influencing the exchange rate listed in the above comments are considered relevant by analysts of other “top” banks of the Russian Federation. According to Russian Standard representative Maxim Timoshenko, the dollar exchange rate this week will not go beyond the range of ₽65.50-66.60. Anatoly Saltykov from SMP-Bank predicts that the green price will remain in the range of ₽65.50-68.50, and his colleague from BKS-Premier Anton Pokatovich is focused on stabilizing the pair in the ₽65.30-67.70 zone.
Keep in mind that exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.
| Dollar exchange rate | Euro exchange rate | Ruble's exchange rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| There will be an official course for 10.30.2019 (we will find out via 20 hours) |
? | ? | ? |
| Current official rate as of 10/29/2019 the best rates in banks |
63.8700 -13 kop. |
70.8382 -28 kop. |
went up in price + 0.29% |
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|||
| Since the last official exchange rate was determined on October 29, 2019 | went down -21 kop. |
went down -25 kop. |
went up in price +0.34% (oil during this time: |
| In the last hour | decreased slightly -4 kopecks |
dropped a little -9 kopecks |
increased in price insignificantly +0.09% |
Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange
Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast
| Exchange rate forecast for October | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| date | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
| 28.10.2019 | Monday | 64.16 | 65.12 | 63.20 | 71.11 | 72.18 | 70.04 |
| 29.10.2019 | Tuesday | 64.42 | 65.39 | 63.45 | 71.45 | 72.52 | 70.38 |
| 30.10.2019 | Wednesday | 64.24 | 65.20 | 63.28 | 71.09 | 72.16 | 70.02 |
| 31.10.2019 | Thursday | 64.37 | 65.34 | 63.40 | 71.10 | 72.17 | 70.03 |
| Exchange rate forecast for November | Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week and month | Euro exchange rate forecast for the week and month | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| date | Day of the week | Well | Max. | Min. | Well | Max. | Min. |
| 01.11.2019 | Friday | 64.00 | 64.96 | 63.04 | 70.97 | 72.03 | 69.91 |
| 05.11.2019 | Tuesday | 64.00 | 64.96 | 63.04 | 71.33 | 72.40 | 70.26 |
| 06.11.2019 | Wednesday | 63.77 | 64.73 | 62.81 | 71.33 | 72.40 | 70.26 |
| 07.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.80 | 64.76 | 62.84 | 71.41 | 72.48 | 70.34 |
| 08.11.2019 | Friday | 63.84 | 64.80 | 62.88 | 71.35 | 72.42 | 70.28 |
| 11.11.2019 | Monday | 63.61 | 64.56 | 62.66 | 71.32 | 72.39 | 70.25 |
| 12.11.2019 | Tuesday | 63.18 | 64.13 | 62.23 | 71.05 | 72.12 | 69.98 |
| 13.11.2019 | Wednesday | 62.88 | 63.82 | 61.94 | 70.83 | 71.89 | 69.77 |
| 14.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.12 | 64.07 | 62.17 | 71.00 | 72.07 | 69.94 |
| 15.11.2019 | Friday | 63.40 | 64.35 | 62.45 | 71.23 | 72.30 | 70.16 |
| 18.11.2019 | Monday | 62.98 | 63.92 | 62.04 | 70.86 | 71.92 | 69.80 |
| 19.11.2019 | Tuesday | 62.86 | 63.80 | 61.92 | 70.78 | 71.84 | 69.72 |
| 20.11.2019 | Wednesday | 62.85 | 63.79 | 61.91 | 70.93 | 71.99 | 69.87 |
| 21.11.2019 | Thursday | 63.15 | 64.10 | 62.20 | 71.26 | 72.33 | 70.19 |
| 22.11.2019 | Friday | 63.40 | 64.35 | 62.45 | 71.54 | 72.61 | 70.47 |
| 25.11.2019 | Monday | 63.80 | 64.76 | 62.84 | 72.11 | 73.19 | 71.03 |
| 26.11.2019 | Tuesday | 63.85 | 64.81 | 62.89 | 71.99 | 73.07 | 70.91 |
| 27.11.2019 | Wednesday | 64.06 | 65.02 | 63.10 | 71.74 | 72.82 | 70.66 |
| 28.11.2019 | Thursday | 64.21 | 65.17 | 63.25 | 72.07 | 73.15 | 70.99 |
| 29.11.2019 | Friday | 64.03 | 64.99 | 63.07 | 71.66 | 72.73 | 70.59 |
What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates
If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.
What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:
- decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow political news;
- economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
- decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.
Previous rate forecasts
We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on display boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...
Dear visitors to the site “Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!