The official dollar to ruble exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow.

63.8700 RUB for 1 USD

Change of course

Latest values

2019-10-29 Tue	63,8700	−0,1266	−0,20%
2019-10-28 Mon	63,9966	0,0000	0,00%
2019-10-27 Sun	63,9966	0,0000	0,00%
2019-10-26 Sat	63,9966	0.1366	0.21%
2019-10-25 Fri	63,8600	0.0603	0.09%

Dollar exchange rate in other central banks

National Bank of the Republic of Belarus

1 USD

2.0471 BYN

Ruble to dollar exchange rate for tomorrow

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation determines the official dollar exchange rate for tomorrow based on information on the weighted average dollar exchange rate at trading on the Moscow Currency Exchange, received for the current day at 11:30 a.m. Moscow time. This is enough to get a dollar exchange rate forecast for tomorrow.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the weighted average dollar exchange rate for calculations “for tomorrow” from the opening of the Moscow Exchange until 11:30 (USD/RUB - TOD). The Bank of Russia checks dollar quotes from the stock exchange and issues an order “On Foreign Currency Rates,” which sets the official dollar exchange rate for tomorrow.

On this page, the Central Bank dollar exchange rate for tomorrow appears immediately after the official publication by the Bank of Russia - every working day after 12 noon.

The new official dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation begins to operate on the next day after the order is signed and becomes the official USD exchange rate of the Central Bank of Russia until the next order is issued.

Thus, the Bank of Russia order signed on Friday will determine the dollar exchange rate for the next three days: Saturday, Sunday and Monday. On Monday, the next online dollar trading will take place on the stock exchange and the exchange rate for Tuesday will be determined. Likewise for other days of the week.

During weekends and holidays, the dollar exchange rate does not change.

This page collects information from various sources attempting to predict the dollar's exchange rate for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is simply impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.

Unfortunately, forecasts are not available at this time.

Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate

There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or euro (or rather, the exchange rate or strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the oil price chart and try to predict the rise or fall of the national currency based on the corresponding movements in the prices of this energy carrier.

We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple odds that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.

Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar

Pearson coefficient = -0.7136

Well... If you want, you can see the correlation here.

If the Pearson coefficient in absolute value tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the interval under consideration. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these odds.

History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year

It can be seen that over time the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.

In summary, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the foreign exchange markets use their models, trained using machine learning, a bunch of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.

There are also a lot of sites on the Internet with outright trash. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, month, year - any period. By all indications, all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.

The welfare of millions of Russians directly depends on the exchange rate of the national currency. It is in rubles that most citizens of the country keep their savings. Approximately a third of all deposits in Russian banks are ruble denominated.

However, today Russians’ confidence in domestic money has decreased somewhat, which is explained by the depreciation of the exchange rate, the geopolitical situation on the planet and the state of the Russian economy.

You will find answers to these and other questions in a new article in our magazine. Denis Kuderin is in touch, HeatherBober’s staff expert on financial topics.

Analytics, forecasts, expert opinions - only useful and relevant information!

1. What awaits the ruble in the future - positive and negative trends

In the recent history of the ruble, anything has happened, including “Black Tuesdays,” collapses and devaluations. The Russian currency chart moves following economic and political changes in the country and in the world.

Stability is only temporary. Therefore, keeping all your savings in RUB, especially outside a banking institution, is risky and impractical. Financially literate people don't do that. They distribute money among several currencies and put it into business. At a minimum, they put it in a bank deposit.

It’s even better if they invest them in more efficient banking instruments - securities, metal deposits, mutual funds, reliable investment projects. In this case, the fall of some money and the rise of others will not be catastrophic for your assets.

But this does not mean that forecasts should not interest you: every civilized citizen monitors quotes and acts in accordance with their changes.

However, not all forecasts should be taken on faith, much less as a guide to action. Most of these forecasts are empty hot air. Even competent financial analysts and economic commentators often make mistakes. The reason is simple: too many factors influence the situation.

Our task is to find the rational grain in such forecasts in order to create the most objective picture of the situation and draw appropriate conclusions.

Forecasts are needed to:

• know in what money it is more appropriate to keep most of your savings;
• make money on price fluctuations;
• preserve your assets in the event of a sharp fall in one of the currencies.

Exchange rate collapses always occur rapidly - that’s why they are collapses. And yet, it is quite possible to catch the tendency for a sharp change in quotes. Experienced people do this.

Changes in quotes can be predicted if you are aware of the latest news

Another question is who to believe? Surely you have a friend who likes to make forecasts and knows exactly what will happen to the ruble in a month, a week, or at the end of the year (underline as appropriate). And another friend predicts the opposite. One of them will end up being right. Should we believe such predictors?

As for official forecasts for 2019, there are, as usual, two trends – negative and positive.

Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation assumes that the weakening of the national currency will continue, but this will have almost no effect on the country’s economy. GDP, ministers believe, will grow and inflation rates will fall.

The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, names indicative figures for the middle of the year: no more than 67-68 rubles. for a dollar.

But representatives of Bank of America think differently. Sanctions against Russian banks and financial assets abroad, in their opinion, will significantly limit the Russian economy. Companies will have less credit available, which will negatively impact growth and development. It is expected that the Russian currency will fall to 70 rubles. for a buck.

2. Why the ruble is falling - the main factors that negatively affect the exchange rate

There are actually several dozen factors influencing the fall of the ruble against the euro and dollar. A significant part of them is beyond government control. This means that there are no guarantees of stability. Russians, as always, should be prepared for any scenario.

Let's consider the main reasons for the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate.

Outflow of Russian capital

Geopolitical events and sanctions imposed by the West against the Russian economy continue to stimulate the movement of financial assets to foreign countries.

Large investors prefer not to keep money in rubles or securities representing the Russian economy. Ordinary citizens do the same. By not trusting Russian money, we thereby work for the stability of other countries.

The owners of the assets cannot be blamed for this, but the fact remains: capital is being withdrawn from the Russian economy. This leads to a drop in production, a decrease in GDP, an increase in unemployment and other “delights” of a time of crisis.

The game of the population with exchange rates

As soon as the position of the ruble weakens, the population begins to panic and buy dollars in huge quantities. This behavior is a manifestation of financial illiteracy, but again, ordinary citizens cannot be blamed for this: they remember very well the crises and collapses of recent decades.

However, panic in the market leads to an even greater increase in the value of foreign money. An avalanche effect occurs. Professional exchange players earn decent money from panicky fluctuations in the exchange rate. But most investors simply buy currency at an artificially high price, changing quotes in a direction unfavorable for the ruble.

Central Bank measures

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation switched to a floating exchange rate in 2015. In practice, this means that the main bank of the country no longer supports national money during a crisis. In other words, if previously the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the state budget were spent on artificially maintaining the exchange rate, today the national currency must support itself.

The Central Bank has other levers of influence on quotes, both positive and negative:

• additional issue of banknotes - more money is printed, which leads to inflation;
• currency interventions – purchase/sale of foreign money on an “industrial scale”;
• bond issue – massive purchase of securities strengthens the currency;
• reduction in the refinancing rate - the lower it is, the more stable the national currency exchange rate.

It would be naive to believe that only the Central Bank influences quotes. The USA also has a national bank - the Federal Reserve System. The decisions this organization makes directly affect the status of the dollar. All other money in the world depends on this currency.

Economic stagnation

The main export item to the Russian Federation is raw materials: oil, gas, and other energy resources. Due to high oil prices, the Russian economy is still afloat.

The remaining industries in our country are poorly developed or are in a state of stagnation. This means that there is no development, and our industry enterprises cannot seriously compete with foreign companies.

Economic sanctions have deprived Russia of a significant share of imports, but this situation cannot be called unambiguously negative. There is no import, which means we need to saturate the market from within. Against the backdrop of external pressure, some sectors of the economy have seen an upturn, in particular in the agricultural sector.

At the same time, a significant share of consumer goods (70-80%) is supplied to the Russian Federation from China. This is cheaper than producing your own products, but does not stimulate economic development.

And a little more negativity. Most of the large factories in the Russian Federation operate on outdated equipment. Industry is not expanding, new technologies are not being developed, and income from enterprises is barely enough to pay wages to workers. Machine tools have to be purchased from abroad, and this, again, means injections into foreign economies.

I can confirm this with my own example. Several years ago I worked for a large publishing house. He had a printing house, where out of 50 presses there was not a single Russian production - only German, Japanese and Chinese.

By the way, this printing house, the largest in Siberia, has now almost stopped. The staff was reduced by 80%, some workshops were closed forever.

Comparative table of influencing factors

3. What can affect the growth of the national currency

Most analysts do not believe that the ruble will rise in the next few years. However, such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out.

What needs to happen for the ruble to rise?

Investment of Western partners in Russian securities

This will happen if stocks, bonds and other securities of Russian origin begin to show a steady upward trend. Which, in turn, is possible in the event of economic recovery in the country.

Increase in oil prices

So far, there is so much oil in Russia that we export it abroad on an industrial scale. The state of the Russian, and before that the Soviet, economy has always depended on oil prices. More than half of all budget revenues come from oil money. The rest comes from other minerals.

As soon as oil falls by a couple of dollars per barrel, we will miss billions of rubles in the budget. If the price falls by 10 USD, the Russian economy will fall into the abyss. Fortunately, there is no downward trend yet. If prices for “black gold” continue to slowly creep up, this will strengthen the ruble in the second half of 2019.

Increasing the rate of national production

Everything is simple here - more exports, good and different, more revenues to the treasury.

So far, economic ties with foreign countries are mostly being broken rather than improved.

Population's attitude towards the national currency

If people begin to trust the Russian currency again, as they did 5-10 years ago, this will automatically increase its status.

More deposits of the population into national money means more stable its stock exchange quotes.

4. Is it worth exchanging rubles for dollars and euros - expert opinion

Experts believe that buying foreign money en masse is short-sighted and impractical. At all times, it is better to keep savings in several currencies at once. Banks have special multi-currency deposits for these purposes - far-sighted investors use them.

Don’t forget that ruble deposits accrue more interest than foreign currency deposits. During a period of economic stabilization, it is even more profitable to keep savings in Russian money.

But taking long-term loans in USD is definitely not worth it. You will also have to pay in dollars. Even a small increase in the dollar will turn into a serious debt burden.

6. Conclusion

Let's draw conclusions. Analysts predict the exchange rate based on an ideal situation. And there are almost no ideal situations in nature. Something always goes wrong, which is why even brilliant economic experts make mistakes in their forecasts.

If you want to protect your savings, distribute them between three currencies. Then economic shocks will affect you to a minimal extent.

Question to readers:

What forecasts do you personally make regarding the ruble?

We wish you financial well-being regardless of your choice of currency! We welcome comments, reviews, and life stories. See you again!

The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?

Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:

Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.

In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.

In fact, sanctions may not be as harsh as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.

However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries, including the ruble, will suffer

What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?

Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)

No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.

At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy a currency for long-term savings, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases

Risk factors for the ruble

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
• Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
• Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
• Trade wars around the world - possible slowdown in growth rates of all major economies in the world

Factors supporting the ruble

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
• Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a shortage formed in the market.

Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table

Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.

Month	Average forecast at the end of the month, rub.
October 2018	67,98
November 2018	70,39
December 2018	68,25

Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month

Dollar forecast for October 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.

Dollar forecast for November 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.

Dollar forecast for December 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.

The question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future worries not only economists, but also ordinary citizens. This interest is due, first of all, to the fact that Russia’s economic stability largely depends on the exchange rate of the American currency against the domestic ruble.

This dependence is determined by many external and internal factors, the main of which are the price of oil and gas on the world market, as well as currency quotes on the stock market. What forecasts do experts make regarding the US dollar for 2018, let's try to understand this review.

What is the dollar exchange rate trend in the near future?

In 2017, the exchange rate of the American currency strengthened significantly. This was influenced by several events at once:

• House approval of tax reform passed in the Senate on December 19 last year;
• increase in the Federal Reserve System (FRS) rate;
• implementation of the Federal Reserve project aimed at reducing the dollar supply;
• US President Donald Trump signing a bill to ease the taxation of citizens.

In addition, European countries have recently experienced an economic recession associated with a crisis within the conglomerate (the intentions of some states to leave the European Union have been announced), increased unemployment, and the influx of a large number of Muslim refugees from the warring powers. All this contributes to the depreciation of the euro and at the same time the strengthening of the dollar in the global financial market.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2018

As the demand for the dollar supply in the world continues to increase, the United States currency will only strengthen in the near future. This is exactly the forecast made by authoritative international experts for the spring of 2018. As for the dollar-ruble ratio, the main influencing factor here is considered to be the price of oil, since Russia is one of the largest suppliers of “black gold” in the world.

Predictions for this spring based on forecasts of leading stock analysts (the estimated value of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• March - 58.35
• April - 59.87
• May - 61.23

At the same time, some experts predict that with the victory of V.V. Putin in the presidential elections on March 18, 2018, the growth of the domestic currency or its stabilization is also possible. The near future will show which financier was right.

Expert forecast for summer 2018

Economists' opinions regarding the RUB/USD pair exchange rate for the summer of 2018 are divided:

• Some experts predict the quotation of the domestic currency at a level not exceeding 56 rubles. for a dollar.
• Other experts say that the US currency exchange rate in the summer will fluctuate in the range from 57 to 62 rubles.

By month it might look like this (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• June - 61.89
• July - 62.93
• August - 60.88

Dollar exchange rate forecast for autumn 2018

The forecast for the fall for the Russian currency in relation to the American currency will largely depend not only on the price of oil and gas, but also on how productive this season will be. Economic analysts make the following predictions for this period (the estimated value of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• September - 62.98
• October - 61.25
• november

$ exchange rate at the end of 2018

The end of 2018 will be marked by the following important financial events.