Russia is preparing a plan to reduce the dependence of the economy on the dollar. In accordance with the strategy, domestic businesses will refuse to trade in US currency with foreign partners within five years. Why Moscow has taken a course towards de-dollarization and how this will affect the country's foreign trade potential, 360 understood.

The Russian government is preparing a draft strategy for abandoning the dollar. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev may approve it in one to two weeks, writes The Bell, citing three sources familiar with the discussions. It is noted that the discussion was attended by the Central Bank, VTB and other significant banks, as well as the largest exporters.

According to the publication, the document does not spell out strict requirements for the abandonment of the dollar. The government plans to focus on creating the possibility of payments in national currencies, sources say The Bell. The plan also provides for the easing of currency control and the liberalization of currency legislation.

The document will be based on the proposals of the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. The official presented a plan to move away from the dollar in early September this year. It included the transition to settlement in other units for export-import operations, the transfer of holdings to Russian jurisdiction, the creation of a Russian depository for the placement of Eurobonds and the licensing of all stock market participants according to uniform operating rules. Kostin also proposed to transfer all trade from the EU to the euro, and with China - to the yuan.

At the same time, there is no talk of a complete rejection of the dollar, Kostin said then. “This plan is absolutely long-term and is aimed more at changing the global trend than at some momentary one-time solution,” the banker emphasized. According to the calculations of the head of VTB, the de-dollarization of the Russian economy will take about five years.

However, ordinary Russians will not be affected by the restrictions, so it’s not worth running to the exchange office, said Yury Yudenkov, professor at the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development. “Russia has accumulated a large amount of cash in dollars, so those who want to withdraw money in dollars will be able to do so. There should be no panic in the market of individuals, ”said the interlocutor of 360.

Rejection of the economic hegemon

Photo source: RIA Novosti

Russian business has been prompted to gradually abandon the dollar in trading with foreign partners by the sanctions pressure from the United States that has increased in recent years, analysts polled by 360 are sure. In August last year, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which involves the imposition of trade restrictions on "America's adversaries."

“The US Congress is threatening to block the correspondent accounts of the largest Russian banks in America. Since Russia trades oil raw materials in dollars, the blockade puts our economy in a difficult position,” Yury Yudenkov emphasized.

In order not to find itself in trade isolation due to possible sanctions from the American establishment, Russia is actively working to switch to national currency settlements with its trading partners. Over the past few years, the country has already managed to accumulate the necessary experience in this area, Denis Manturov, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with RIA Novosti the day before. According to him, in the near future the business plans to start trading in national currencies with the countries of the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.

A specific example of a currency transition can be the supply of automotive components from Turkey. According to Denis Manturov, a number of Russian companies are ready to start settlements in Turkish lira. At the same time, the producers of the republic itself, according to the minister, also begin to carry out operations in the national currency with great pleasure.

A departure from the dollar in settlements with trading partners is necessary, Alexander Belchuk, professor of the Department of World and National Economy of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development, believes. “The dominance of the dollar in world markets gives the United States huge advantages and the ability to directly exploit other countries. As a result, the economies of developing countries become dependent on the American hegemon, which at any moment can impose sanctions on alleged "enemies",” the 360 ​​interlocutor emphasized.

According to the expert, first of all, Russia can switch to national currencies when trading with the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Thus, against the backdrop of huge reserves and large foreign trade turnover of the PRC, the Chinese yuan can play a leading role in this issue. Also, Moscow can switch to settlements in national currencies with the states of Latin America. The main contenders may be the three largest countries in the region: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.

Also, all the former countries of the USSR may join the de-dollarization project, Yury Yudenkov is sure. “With the EU, Russia can also start trading in euros, but there it will have to negotiate with each bank individually, since the European banking system is decentralized,” the 360 ​​interlocutor said.

Chinese protest

Photo source: RIA Novosti

Russia is not the only country that has decided to reduce the dollar portfolio in its economy. China has been trying to limit the circulation of dollars among the population for several years now. According to the law, customers of an average bank of China can buy no more than five thousand dollars a day, and by advance order, the amount cannot exceed 10 thousand dollars. In a year, the Chinese can buy no more than 50 thousand dollars.

Also, China is gradually abandoning the dollar in settlements with foreign partners. Especially actively in national currencies, Beijing trades with Moscow: in 2017, 9% of payments for deliveries from Russia to China were made in rubles. At the same time, Russian companies paid for 15% of Chinese imports in yuan.

However, for China, the transition to international payments in yuan is a national economic strategy, experts say. For example, in March of this year, Beijing launched trading in oil futures in yuan at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.

“Many world powers are looking for an alternative to the dollar. The first possible candidate to replace the dollar hegemony is the euro. It is followed by the IMF's reserve currency, the yuan. But it is premature to say that in the coming years the countries will abandon the American national currency, since now 70% of world trade is conducted in dollars,” Alexander Belchuk summed up.

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Announced the submission of a plan to dedollarize the country's economy for consideration by the government. How far can this process go? Should the population run away to withdraw their hard currency savings from banks? And will the de-dollarization of Russia cool the ardor of American sanctions if others join our country in refusing the dollar in international settlements?

On the eve of the government's plan to "reject the dollar", President Vladimir Putin indirectly spoke on this subject at the Russian Energy Forum, noting that the United States is making a big strategic mistake by undermining confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency.

“They are really sawing the branch they are sitting on,” he remarked, adding that such behavior (obviously referring to self-confidence in their actions) is typical of any empire.

By the way, we can agree with the latter. And while now, even with a whopping $22 trillion in debt, the United States still enjoys the world's credibility as the top and most reliable borrower, who knows what will happen to that credibility in 3-5-10 years. After all, signs that it is precisely the “imperial” behavior of the United States, and even in the “savory” performance of Donald Trump, that is beginning to annoy even their closest allies (for now, let it be in small ways), are already periodically appearing. And about empires it is also known that their decline begins at the moment of their highest prosperity.

The current self-confidence in the long run can really come back to haunt the United States in trouble. Especially when new "competing empires" grow up - China, Europe, and then we'll see.

The time of the announcement of the de-dollarization plan - as if in a mockery - coincided with a new noticeable weakening of the ruble, which, along with the Russian market, had just recovered from the “sanctions shock”. This weakening was also prompted by another series of “spy thriller”, in which the Netherlands accused Russia of hacker attacks on the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, revealing the details of the operation carried out back in April of this year, when four Russian citizens with diplomatic passports were expelled. An information wave immediately arose around the “another terrible machinations of the Russian GRU”: Britain accused Russia of “undermining the world order”, the US Department of Justice brought charges against already seven “military intelligence officers” (he already accused four of them in July in interference in US elections, some of this group appear in the Dutch case), calling them involved in cyber attacks on the OPCW, WADA, investigators of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing, as well as the Westinghouse company working in the field of nuclear energy.

However, not only and not even so much sanctions risks (to which the market is already partly accustomed) caused the ruble to fall on Thursday. The ruble simply fell in company with the currencies of other emerging markets (the Turkish lira fell more) against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, higher US government bond rates, as well as a temporary exit from the market of Russian exporters, who had previously been actively buying rubles to pay taxes.

In Russia, they have been talking about de-dollarization for quite a long time, almost all of the post-Soviet period, calling it colloquially "abandoning the dollar." From time to time, even populist, rather illiterate bills about this very “complete and final refusal” appeared.

However, the current intentions are still much more serious. There is no question of a ban on the circulation of the dollar.

The course is calculated "in the long term", without any sudden movements, and is aimed primarily at reducing the risks of sudden (theoretically possible in the current political conditions) actions of the United States to disconnect our country or some of its banks from dollar transactions, which all go through correspondent accounts in American banks.

In any case, you do not need to run to the bank to withdraw cash. Not a single banking system can withstand such an influx of depositors (the volume of foreign currency deposits of the population in the first half of the year amounted to a little less than $ 90 billion in dollar terms), so only madmen can make drastic steps here.

Of course, if, say, China and a couple of other major economies joined our de-dollarization efforts, the global hegemony of the dollar would come to an end.

But at the same time, the collapse of the entire global financial system would also come, hitting, among other things, the "collapsers" themselves.

In the short and medium term, there is no alternative to the dollar as a global means of payment. And the same China places bonds in dollars, not yuan. It is also the largest foreign holder of US debt and is not going to reduce its share at all (whereas Russia practically zeroed its volume this year, putting, in particular, on dollar deposits in foreign banks, and it was quickly bought out by other countries, such as the Saudis ). And despite years of talk about the desirability and possibility of switching to rubles and yuan in trade with China, up to 80% of our mutual trade turnover is still settled in dollars.

However, in this case, it is still more important, to some extent, not the current very specific costs of the transition (albeit very limited) in the calculations for national currencies, but some new trend. By itself, if America notices the de-dollarization of Russia, it will not be because it somehow threatens it economically or financially - no. But because it will show an even greater decrease in the effectiveness of sanctions against our country as a means to influence its policy and weaken its economy. This will be only one (but we hope not the only) means of adapting the Russian economy to new conditions.

At the same time, the ability to unconditionally dictate one's will to others is an indispensable quality of any powerful empire. And if this ability is undermined, or if more and more countries have doubts about it, then this inevitably hits the strength of the currency of such an empire. This is not a prospect for the next few years, of course. It's a long run. And the question is not when its participants will come to the finish line (it definitely exists), but whether all of them will come to it.

MOSCOW, November 8 - RIA Novosti, Alexander Lesnykh. Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that India will pay for the supply of S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems in rubles. China is not far behind: according to the head of VEB Igor Shuvalov, an agreement on mutual settlements in national currencies can be signed before the end of this year. What benefit will Russia get from the de-dollarization of foreign trade and who else is ready to join the calculations in national currencies - in the material of RIA Novosti.

Red light to green

The biggest and most obvious benefit for both countries when trading in national currencies is that there are no major fluctuations in recalculation.

So, on January 1 this year, the ruble was given 0.89 Indian rupees, and 10 months later - 0.88 rupees. The maximum exchange rate during this year is 0.98 rupees per ruble, the minimum is 0.85 rupees. This means that the volatility corridor amounted to 0.13 rubles for the entire year.

For comparison: on January 1, the dollar cost 57.04 rubles, and on November 1 - already 65.6 rubles. The maximum value this year is 69.9 rubles, the minimum is 55.6 rubles. The volatility corridor is 14.3 rubles. The difference in this indicator between the ruble / dollar and ruble / rupee pairs is fabulous - 11,000%.

Another equally important problem in settlements through the US dollar is the high probability of sanctions that Washington is distributing right and left this year.

In April, Indian media reported that the financial structures of Delhi had frozen about two billion dollars allocated to pay for critical projects, including the repair of the Chakra nuclear submarine leased from Russia (Project 971 Shchuka-B).

The reason is that the White House included Rosoboronexport in the sanctions list. For financial institutions, this actually means a ban on any settlements in US currency.

But, as practice shows, the world is no longer taking Donald Trump's threats seriously. India chose to maintain relations with the most reliable partner in the field of military-technical cooperation and the supply of weapons - Russia.

From 2007 to 2017, Russia supplied $24.5 billion worth of weapons to India, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). USA - only 3.1 billion.

And Russia's trade with India is not only the supply of arms, the volume of which in 2017 amounted to about $1.9 billion (against the background of a total trade turnover of $9.1 billion). According to Borisov, it is also possible to pay for civilian products in national currencies.

“Today, the share of settlements in rubles for exports is 20%, for imports - about 21%,” the Russian Deputy Prime Minister noted. “This is a good indicator, but, nevertheless, we will increase settlements in national currencies as a means of solving the problem of non-payments. This also applies to contracts for military-technical cooperation."

Unites not only Amur

Another great piece of news for Moscow on the same topic came in early October from the head of Vnesheconombank (VEB), Igor Shuvalov. The top manager said that Russia and China have their own channels for interaction, adding that in the current situation, Beijing is also interested in using them.

"We understand how this scheme should work, it should be described in an agreement. The Chinese side is no less, and perhaps even more interested, since it was announced yesterday by the Chinese President, that such an agreement be signed as soon as possible" , - Shuvalov informed journalists about the results of intergovernmental negotiations.

The banker specified that bilateral consultations will be held in the coming weeks, during which it will be necessary to finally decide how the interaction between the financial institutions of both countries will take place and who will take on the role of an authorized operator in Moscow and Beijing.

Beijing celebrated an important anniversary yesterday on a grand scale: 40 years have passed since the start of Chinese economic reforms and the policy of "opening up to the world." It was this openness, the willingness to learn from the West without copying it, the willingness to make unpopular but necessary reforms, as well as the most serious infusions of American capital aimed at turning China into an effective counterbalance to the late Soviet Union, that became the key to the Chinese economic miracle.

Part of the American elite looks at today's China through the prism of a rather offensive thesis for the Chinese: "I gave birth to you, I will kill you," in the sense that, since the Chinese economic miracle became possible due to the export of Chinese goods to the West, due to the transfer to China is American technology and due to the high level of American direct investment, which means that if all of the above is blocked, China will collapse like a house of cards. The optics and logic of the American Sinophobes are based on the fact that the current strong China is a historical aberration that can and must be corrected.

It's not for nothing that the Trump administration's chief trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, is pushing for China to abandon its "Made in China 2025" import substitution and Chinese high-tech manufacturing program.

The US wants to return the country to the position of "cheap assembly shop" for US companies. Judging by the rhetoric of official Beijing, the view of the most influential (one might say, healthy nationalist) part of the Chinese political elite on their own country comes from completely different premises: according to their version, the humiliation and weakness of their state, which was most clearly manifested in the era of the opium wars, as well as widespread poverty before the beginning of the era of reforms - these are historical aberrations, and the natural state of China is a powerful power and a world pole of power.

President Xi's speech, dedicated to the anniversary of the beginning of reforms, was perceived by many Western observers as a kind of litmus test, as a kind of indicator of which path the country intends to take in the near future. Against the backdrop of negotiations with Donald Trump, after which some media exploded with enthusiastic headlines with a general meaning

"China has surrendered in the trade war," some expected the Chinese leader's keynote speech to be used to covertly explain to fellow citizens the need to end the trade war (i.e., de facto capitulation) and open up the Chinese economy. Well, or at least the transition of Chinese rhetoric to a more conciliatory register was supposed. No conciliatory tone was recorded. President Xi offered fellow citizens and the world a very different basic message: "No one is in a position to dictate to the Chinese people what can and cannot be done," he stressed in his speech.

The Qatari Al Jazeera correspondent writes that "the reason everyone was following Xi's speech so closely is because they were looking for hints of the concessions he was willing to make in order to alleviate the situation with the trade conflict with the United States. ,

President Xi's speech cannot be called capricious - it contains a sober indication that "all sorts of risks and challenges" are expected ahead. During the speech, Asian stock markets fell - investors realized that China did not cave in under Trump's pressure, which means that we are ahead of tariffs, trade restrictions, arrests of Chinese businessmen wherever American intelligence agencies can reach them, and other events that do not contribute to optimism of financial tycoons.

At the same time, it should be noted that the hopes of those who pointed to the likelihood of China returning to the most radical economic and political practices of the Mao era as a mobilization response to external challenges and an instrument for maintaining power by the Chinese Communist Party did not come true. On the contrary, as rightly pointed out by business publication Caixin, President Xi emphasized in his speech that the market will play a key role in the allocation of resources in the country's economy. This can be interpreted as an indication that China is not going to abandon the positive experience of using market mechanisms just because relations between Beijing and Washington have soured badly.

Apparently, in order to emphasize this "pro-market" position of the CCP, one of the honorary awards presented on the occasion of the "anniversary of reforms" went to billionaire Jack Ma, around whom a serious scandal erupted recently due to his membership in the Communist Party of China: on the one hand , Western investors in Jack Ma's Chinese companies did not know how to "digest" the news that the most famous Chinese entrepreneur was the owner of a red party ticket, and on the other hand, there were critics for the party that accepted the billionaire into its ranks.

In a way, the case of the "communist billionaire" Ma is the embodiment of the entire controversial history of Chinese reforms in one person: the combination of what seems impossible to combine produces an interesting and unexpected result.

"Socialism with Chinese characteristics" is a mysterious phenomenon for many foreign analysts, which is the essence of China's economic success. And this is the main reason why, despite external pressure (and even some discontent recorded by foreign observers among the management elite), the Chinese leadership is not going to change its economic and political course.

President Xi in his speech tried to "get through" to Washington and explain that Beijing is not trying to become a "world hegemon". Like Russia, China demands from the United States that it just be left alone and not hindered from developing. Unfortunately, judging by the logic of the current Washington leaders, the very idea that someone just wants to develop and successfully compete with the United States in the global economy is already perceived as a threat to American national interests and American national security. This means that China will be "pressed" by economic, diplomatic and, possibly, even military methods.

The reason is his success, and there is always a reason.

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that India will pay for the supply of S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems in rubles. China is not far behind: according to the head of VEB Igor Shuvalov, an agreement on mutual settlements in national currencies can be signed before the end of this year. What benefit will Russia get from the de-dollarization of foreign trade and who else is ready to join the calculations in national currencies - in the material of RIA Novosti.

Red light to green

The contract for the supply of S-400 systems to India was signed on October 5 this year during Vladimir Putin's visit to Delhi. Experts estimate it at five billion dollars. At the rate of the Bank of Russia, this is 331 billion rubles.

The biggest and most obvious benefit for both countries when trading in national currencies is that there are no major fluctuations in recalculation.

So, on January 1 this year, the ruble was given 0.89 Indian rupees, and 10 months later - 0.88 rupees. The maximum exchange rate during this year is 0.98 rupees per ruble, the minimum is 0.85 rupees. It means that the volatility corridor amounted to 0.13 rubles for the entire year.

For comparison: on January 1, the dollar cost 57.04 rubles, and on November 1 - already 65.6 rubles. The maximum value this year is 69.9 rubles, the minimum is 55.6 rubles. Volatility corridor - 14.3 rubles. The difference in this indicator between the ruble / dollar and ruble / rupee pairs is fabulous - 11,000%.

Another equally important problem in settlements through the US dollar is the high probability of sanctions that Washington is distributing right and left this year.

In April, Indian media reported that the financial structures of Delhi had frozen about two billion dollars allocated to pay for critical projects, including the repair of the Chakra nuclear submarine leased from Russia (project 971 "Pike-B").

The reason is that the White House included Rosoboronexport in the sanctions list. For financial institutions, this actually means a ban on any settlements in US currency.

But, as practice shows, the world is no longer taking Donald Trump's threats seriously. India chose to maintain relations with the most reliable partner in the field of military-technical cooperation and the supply of weapons - Russia.

According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), From 2007 to 2017, Russia supplied weapons worth $24.5 billion to India. USA - only 3.1 billion.

And Russia's trade with India is not only the supply of arms, the volume of which in 2017 amounted to about $1.9 billion (against the background of a total trade turnover of $9.1 billion). According to Borisov, it is also possible to pay for civilian products in national currencies.

“Today, the share of settlements in rubles for exports is 20%, for imports - about 21%,” the Russian Deputy Prime Minister noted. - This is a good indicator, but, nevertheless, we will increase settlements in national currencies as a means to solve the problem of non-payments. This also applies to contracts for military-technical cooperation.”

Unites not only Amur

Another great piece of news for Moscow on the same topic came in early October from the head of Vnesheconombank (VEB), Igor Shuvalov. The top manager said that Russia and China have their own channels for interaction, adding that in the current situation, Beijing is also interested in using them.

“We understand how this scheme should work, it should be described in the agreement. The Chinese side is no less, and perhaps even more interested, as it was announced yesterday by the President of the PRC, that such an agreement be signed as soon as possible,” Shuvalov informed journalists about the results of intergovernmental negotiations.

The banker specified that bilateral consultations would be held in the coming weeks, during which it would be necessary to finally decide how the interaction between the financial institutions of both countries would take place and who would take on the role of an authorized operator in Moscow and Beijing.

It is worth noting that the dynamics of the ruble and yuan this year was more similar to the ratio of the ruble to the Indian rupee than the ruble to the dollar. On January 1 of this year, the yuan at the rate of the Central Bank was worth 8.74 rubles, and on November 1 - 9.4 rubles. The highest rate of the Chinese currency was fixed at 10.1 rubles, and the lowest - 8.72 rubles.

Thus, the volatility corridor between the ruble and the yuan amounted to only 1.38 rubles against 14.3 between the ruble and the dollar. As in the case of India, for businesses this means lower exposure to foreign exchange losses.

The volume of mutual trade is also pushing for the abolition of settlements in dollars between Moscow and Beijing. Last year, the turnover between Russia and the United States amounted to $23.6 billion, and between Russia and China - $84.9 billion (a difference of almost 360%).

Moscow, Beijing and Delhi, by their example, show the whole world how to get rid of dollar dependence. It is noteworthy that all three countries are the largest emerging economies, while the US economy is developed. This means that mutual settlements in national currencies open up prospects for other developing economies and are able to finally rid world trade of dollar hegemony.