How to find out the exact population size. World population
The first attempt to estimate the world population was made in 1682 by the founder of classical political economy, the Englishman Sir William Petty. He believed that by the end of the 17th century. The number of people living on Earth was 320 million people. (according to modern demographic estimates, the number at that time was almost 2 times greater).
Most of W. Petty's scientific treatises are devoted to issues of population size and dynamics - fertility and mortality, placement, employment, i.e., the most pressing problems of all eras. He showed that the birth and death of a person are largely random phenomena, but despite this, demographic indicators (birth rates, mortality rates and natural increase, etc.) in a given territory are constant values, slowly changing over time. Thus, with a large statistical aggregate, isolated phenomena are subject to regular patterns. Unlike another English economist, T. Malthus, who considered population growth to be the cause of poverty, W. Petty considered population as the main wealth of the state.
William Petty - inventor of "political arithmetic"
William Petty is the inventor of “political arithmetic” - statistics - the basis of every objective scientific research, the author of the world’s first work (“Political Arithmetic”, 1672), based on the economic-statistical method of analysis.
William Petty, the son of a clothier from Romsey (Southern England), lived a stormy and interesting life. In his youth, unexpectedly for everyone, he joined a ship as a cabin boy. However, his naval career quickly ended - he broke his leg and was written off ashore, which turned out to be the northern coast of France. Here he started a small business, and then studied at the Jesuit college in Caen, from which he graduated brilliantly.
In the 1640s. Petty was a cartographer in the English navy, a professor of medicine at Oxford, and from 1651 a physician to the commander-in-chief of the English army in newly conquered Ireland. Here he took a contract from the government for the economic assessment and division of Irish lands.
The maps of Ireland he compiled were used to resolve land disputes until the 19th century. After this work, 30-year-old Petty became a large landowner and was knighted. Since the 1660s he became seriously involved in economics.
Rice. 122. William Petty (1623-1687)
Census. This is the simultaneous collection of statistical information about all residents of the country; they provide the most accurate data on the population. To ensure a high-quality census, it is necessary to train “enumerators” - people who, on the same day, must fill out questionnaires for all citizens of the country with information about age, gender, number of children in the family, education, nationality, etc. The results of the census serve as the basis for the state socio-economic policy, economic growth planning, budget revenue and expenditure items.
In the ancient world, population records were also kept: in Egypt around 2500 BC. e., in addition, in Mesopotamia, India, China. For example, among Tamerlane the number of warriors was determined by the number of stones thrown into a pile. Censuses, the predecessors of modern population censuses, were carried out in Ancient Rome. Their data served to determine taxation, votes in the People's Assembly, and distribution of the population among military units. In the Middle Ages, population censuses were carried out in cities.
The first population censuses in the modern sense were carried out in the middle of the 18th century: in the Scandinavian countries, in Austria-Hungary, and in 1790 in the USA. During the 19th century. In most European and some Latin American countries, official population data were obtained for the first time: in 1801 - in Britain, in 1897 - in the Russian Empire.
Pericenses in the Russian Empire - USSR - Russian Federation
The first information about population registration in our country dates back to the 9th century. The objects of the census were only tax-paying households, and only men were counted. During the time of Peter I, capitation censuses (revisions) began to be carried out, and capitation lists began to be called revision tales.
The first general census in the Russian Empire was carried out on the principle of a one-day census in 1897. Its organization was based on the project of the geographer P. P. Semenov-Tyan-Shansky.
The first All-Union Census was carried out in 1926, the next one in 1937. The results of the population census, namely the reduction in numbers, did not satisfy the country's leadership, the census was recognized as erroneous, the organizers were repressed and a new census was scheduled for 1939. The results of the 1937 census .were published only in the 1990s. Population censuses in Russia were carried out in 1959, 1970,1979, 1989, 2002.
Censuses in Nigeria
The only African country where censuses have been conducted quite regularly since 1957 was Nigeria. However, this did not add accuracy, but, on the contrary, was one of the reasons for the aggravation of interethnic conflicts between the opposing tribes - the Ibo, Yoruba and Hausa.
In 1957, according to the census, Nigeria had a population of 31 million. The results of the 1962 census (the first census of the independence period) were canceled due to technical reasons.
According to the results of the 1963 census, the population was 55.7 million people, but the results were again declared invalid, since the indicated population size could only be with an average annual population growth rate of more than 60% per year, which exceeds the biological capabilities of reproduction.
The 1973 census showed results of 79 million people, which subsequently became the basis for demographic projections for the next two decades.
The 1991 census was conducted before the country's transition from military to civilian rule; she prepared carefully and for a long time.
The census results were unexpected for the entire world community - “only” 86 million people. Nigeria is one of the ten largest countries in terms of population.
In 2011, Nigeria moved to 8th place (155.2 million people), according to forecasts for 2050 - 402 million people, or 4th place in the world.
Rice. 123. Population growth in Nigeria
Population censuses are an extremely expensive undertaking, and therefore, only states with sufficient financial resources can conduct them regularly - once every 10 years, as recommended by the UN.
In Asian countries, the first censuses were carried out only after World War II, with the exception of India and Japan. In India, official population data appeared in the 1870s. In Japan, the first census was conducted in 1920.
The problem of population registration is especially acute in developing countries, where lack of financial resources, inaccessibility of internal areas and illiteracy of the population do not allow obtaining high-quality results. In addition, when conducting censuses, two opposing trends are clearly visible. The first is an overestimation of the population for reasons of prestige. At the family level, this is the prestige of having many children, and at the tribal level, it is gaining advantages in elections and the distribution of government funding. The second is understating the population mainly to reduce the amount of per capita taxes per family.
In most African countries, censuses were carried out with funds from international organizations in the late 1950s. before independence. In some countries, these censuses were the first and last.
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The Earth's population has been increasing throughout history, but this process occurs with varying intensity. This is clearly evidenced by data on periods when humanity reaches billions of people: 1 billion people. - 1820; 110 years later in 1930 - 2 billion people, 30 years later in 1960 - 3 billion people, 14 years later in 1974 - 4 billion people, 13 years later in 1987 - 5 billion people ., 12 years later in 1999 - 6 billion people. The periods of reaching the last billion-dollar milestones indicate a decrease in the intensity of the global population growth process (Fig. 6.1 and Fig. 6.2).
Rice. 6.1. Annual growth of world population since 1950, million people.
Rice. 6.2. Annual world population growth since 1950, %
The population growth rates of the main macroregions of the world were different, as a result of which there were changes in their share in the total world population (see ranked series).
Ranked number of world regions by share of the total world population:
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5000 BC e. |
1500-1800 |
1900-1950 |
1990-2000 |
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In the period 2000-2005. The average annual growth rates of the world population are: the whole world - 1.3%, Europe - -0.05%, America - 1.2%, Africa - 2.2%, Asia - 1.5%, Australia - 0.6 %.
Many specialized institutions monitor changes in the world population. These include the US Bureau of Censuses, on whose official website there are the so-called “world population clocks” (POPClocks), which make it possible to learn in real time ON-line about the size of the Earth’s population (Fig. 6.3).
Rice. 6.3. World Population Clock
In modern demogeographical science, a scale of countries in the world by population has emerged - countries with a population of more than 500 million people. are called the largest; 100-500 million people. - large; 50-100 million people - welterweight; 20-50 million people - average; 10-20 million people. - small; 5-10 - small; less than 5 - the smallest and dwarf states.
In the course of historical development, countries of the world, like regions, change their positions on the world stage in terms of population. Having studied the demographic features of the world, it is easy to understand that the largest developing countries in Asia and Africa are ahead in population growth rates and are taking first positions. As of 2003, the top ten countries by population are:
Mexico has crossed the hundred million mark – 104,907,991 people.
Within the world's macroregions there are also leaders in population size. In Europe these are: Germany - 82.6 million people, France - 59.8 million people, Great Britain - 59.2 million people; in Asia: China, India, Indonesia (see data above); in Africa: Nigeria, Egypt - 2.1 million people, Ethiopia - 70.7 million people; in North America:
USA, Mexico, Canada - 31.6 million people; V South America: Brazil, Colombia - 44.2 million people, Argentina - 36.9 million people.
As you know, in 1999 the world population crossed the threshold of 6 billion inhabitants. Humanity is faced with very important questions: is it a lot or a little, is it good or bad, what are the consequences of demographic growth, where is the main demographic burden concentrated, etc. The 1999 report of the UN Population Fund “6” was devoted to the solution of these and many other questions. billions: time to choose.” It revealed the main trends and changes in demographic models of world development:
1. The fastest growing regions are sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia. However, in Europe, North America and Japan, population growth rates have slowed or stopped. The United States is the only developed country that continues to project significant population growth, driven primarily by immigration.
2. A global consensus has been reached regarding the ongoing demographic policy. The program of the International Conference on Population (Cairo, 1994) is feasible and realistic. Many countries have adopted new development policies that take demographic issues into account. Two thirds of all countries have introduced legislation to promote gender equality and women's empowerment. Almost all countries in Latin America, more than half of Asian countries and several countries in Africa have introduced institutional changes to ensure protection of women's rights in areas such as inheritance, property and employment.
3. Reducing fertility rates has certain economic benefits, since a significant proportion of young people mature and become people of working age. This phenomenon was called the “demographic window” and its effect was used by the countries of East Asia. A similar situation is expected to develop in South Asia and Africa over the next two decades.
Changing demographic patterns occurs under the influence of:
1) different population growth. In 1960, 70% of the world's population lived in developing countries; this figure is currently 80% and these countries account for 95% of population growth. Africa's population has tripled since 1960, and the continent has the highest rate of population growth. In 1960, Europe's population was twice that of Africa; It is estimated that by 2050 the number of Africans will be three times the number of Europeans. And since 1960, the population of Asia, the most populous region, has more than tripled, as has the population of Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the population of North America has increased by 50%, and Europe by only 20%, and this figure is currently fairly stable.
2) the increasing scale of urbanization. Cities continue to grow throughout the developing world. In 1960, every third inhabitant of our planet
lived in any city; Today, almost half of the total population lives in cities and by 2030, the urbanization rate is projected to be more than 60%. More and more cities are becoming megacities with populations exceeding 10 million people. The number of such cities will increase from 2 in 1960 to 26 by 2015, with up to 22 megacities located in least developed regions and 18 of them in Asia.
3) international migration. In all regions, international migration is high on the policy agenda. Migrant workers send more than US$70 billion home each year in the form of postal orders, and industries in some countries depend entirely on their skills. The number of female migrants is increasing.
Sukhareva Natalya Nikolaevna – geography teacher at the secondary school named after B. Amalbekov, Atasu village, Zhanaarkinsky district, Karaganda region.Subject: Number and reproduction of the world population.
Target: Study the population size, population growth rate, types of population reproduction.
Tasks:
To form an idea of the size of the Earth's population, the types of population reproduction, and demographic policy in countries with different types of reproduction.
Developing students' attentiveness, logical thinking, and broadening their horizons.
Development of cognitive interest, creative activity, education of information culture.
Equipment: political map of the world, atlas, geography textbook. General overview. CIS countries. Presentation. Flipchart.
Lesson type: combined
Methods: verbal, visual, reproductive, practical, ICT, interactive whiteboard.
Lesson progress
Organizational moment
Greetings, psychological mood.
Updating students' knowledge
What do we call natural resources?
What groups are natural resources divided into?
Name and show on the map countries with large reserves of coal, oil, natural gas, iron and copper ores.
3. Learning a new topic
Motivation for the lesson topic.
Why is it impossible to study the economy without getting to know the population?
Why is the population studied even earlier than the economy?
Place tablets with the concepts “nature”, “economy”, “population” on the board in the correct sequence. Explain your proposed sequence.
What questions do you think we will study in this section?
Why is it important to study populations?
Let's create a cluster
We will begin our study of a new topic with the question of the origin of man, which is the subject of the science of anthropology.
Anthropology - a science that studies the origin, development, and characteristics of humans. (Write in notebook)
Let's think: How can you find out about the population, country, world?
What is being done now to clarify the population size?
Census is a system of measures aimed at clarifying, first of all, the number of residents of individual regions and the world as a whole.
There are several ways to count the population
Population census (conducted once every 10 years)
Current accounting (materials from civil registry offices, migration policy departments, and statistical services are used)
Research project: “History of the Census”
What information is extracted from the census?
About the population census in Kazakhstan, supplement with 2009 census data.
There have been 11 censuses in the history of our country. The first census took place in 1897, and the last in 2009. The first and last censuses are separated by 112 years. During this time, the population of Kazakhstan has also changed. And this dynamics was uneven.
They say forecasting is not a noble business. However, practice shows that you still can’t do without it.
Please tell us what changes are expected in the future.
Answer questions
What types of population registration have you learned about?
Why do you need to know the population of the world, of a particular state?
World population.
Demographic indicators.
Working with textbook text pages 100-103
Analyze diagrams 14,15,16 in the textbook.
Answer the questions:
Why did the world's population grow very slowly until the beginning of the 19th century?
What are the reasons for the small population growth before the 20th century? (Epidemic, frequent wars, food shortages, low standard of living, underdeveloped medicine)
Explain the reasons for the sharp increase in numbers in the second half of the 20th century.
What is a population explosion? (Sharp increase in population)
Reasons for the rapid growth of the world's population
High birth rate
Low mortality
Improving the socio-economic living conditions of the population.
Give the concept of absolute and relative indicators of natural population growth.
Using the “Population Dynamics” map in the atlas, identify countries with high, medium and low rates of natural growth.
Working with the chart 16 compare demographic indicators by region of the world and explain the differences.
Life expectancy of the population as one of the most important demographic indicators.
Exercise: Consider the table on the average life expectancy of the population and draw a conclusion.
The average duration is called expected - that is, it is the average life expectancy of a generation. This indicator is one of the main ones for characterizing the quality of life of the population.
The quality of life of the population is studied by UN experts and also includes:
Economic development
Environmental situation
Calorie nutrition
Unemployment rate
Freedom of speech
Crime rate
Education level
Population reproduction. Demographic policy.
Group activity (3 min.)
What is meant by population reproduction?
What processes underlie population reproduction?
What factors influence these processes?
Question: What is population reproduction?
Population reproduction is the set of indicators of fertility, mortality and natural increase that ensures the continuous renewal of humanity and the change of generations.
Group work task(5min)
Describe the type of population reproduction according to the plan:
Indicators of fertility, mortality, natural increase.
In which countries did it spread, reasons.
Types of reproduction (writing in a notebook)
Traditional
Transition
Modern
Traditional corresponds to type 2 of reproduction, demographically high birth and death rates.
This is the 1st demographic phase, characteristic of expanded reproduction.
Modern type of reproduction. Characteristic of developed countries with low birth and death rates, which corresponds to the 3rd demographic phase with direct reproduction.
The transitional type corresponds to demographic phase 2: there is a high birth rate and low mortality.
Exercise: Analyze table 12, draw a conclusion about the distribution of types of reproduction across the Earth’s territory.
Is it possible to influence fertility?
What is “demographic policy”
Demographic policy is a set of measures carried out by the state aimed at regulating the natural growth of the population to solve demographic problems.
Measures: economic, legal, propaganda.
Conclusion: the demographic policy of any state is aimed at improving the quality of human life.
Scene one.
Two old friends meet who have not seen each other for two years.
First: Hello dear, how glad I am to see you! You're simply unrecognizable. You have a new Mercedes car, and two years ago, as I remember, you had a Citroen and a thousand-dollar suit.
Second: And you still have the same old Peugeot
First: Yes! Yes! An old Peugeot, dear wife Susan and only daughter Katya. Well, why is everything about me? Your cousin told me that you bought a fancy house. In general, you get rich!
Second: Do you want to know the secret of my well-being? I have four children and we are expecting a fifth!
Scene two.
Dialogue between husband and wife
Husband: Honey, where is our magnificent son? I promised to take him to the zoo today.
Wife: You know, dear, he went to the zoo with his grandparents, and in their absence I would like to talk to you about an important problem, if you want, plans that concern me now.
Husband: Oh, what's missing, dear? We have everything: everyone has a bicycle, there is a TV in every room, there is a video. Soon we’ll add up all the salaries and extra payments and buy a mini-sauna and a video camera!
Wife: No, no, I don’t want this... I want a child!
Husband: Are you crazy?
Questions for the class:
1) In which countries might these scenes take place?
2) What type of population reproduction can they be classified as and why?
Consolidation
Quick question.
What is natural population growth?
Which region has the lowest mortality rates in the world? What about the maximum?
Factors influencing high birth rates?
Which region has the lowest fertility rates in the world? What about the maximum?
The first type of reproduction is typical for regions...
The second type of reproduction is typical for regions...
What elements of the demographic policy of highly developed countries take place in Kazakhstan?
Tests
1. Currently, the world population is approaching (billion people)
1) 5
2) 10
3) 7
2. The leader in population is
1) India
2) China
3) USA
3. The set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase that ensure the change of human generations is called...
1) population reproduction
2) demographic transition
3) population movement
4. A population explosion is observed in countries...
1) USA
2) China
3) Germany
5. The system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other measures through which the state influences the natural movement of the population is called...
1) demographic transition
2) demographic policy
3) demographic process
Answers
1. 3
2. 2
3. 1
4. 2
5. 2
Believe it or not.
Reflection
Did I achieve the goal set at the beginning of the lesson?
Will the knowledge gained in this lesson be useful for my career?
I would like to discuss with friends
I had an idea in class
What would you do to increase the number of our republic?
Summing up. Grading.
Homework.
Paragraph 24 pp. 99-105
Write an essay “My family in 2030”
Sociological research in their families.
Make a chart about the number of children in the families of your great-grandmother, grandmother, mother and your family in the future. Identify the reasons for the change in the number of children in the family. Find out where your ancestors lived (in the city or in the village) and what education your parents, grandmothers, and great-grandmothers had.
Let people have different skin colors
Thanks everyone for the lesson!
Goodbye!
Let people speak different languages and live on different continents.
Is it possible that all people living on our planet have something in common in their relationships with each other?
Think and write what character qualities a person living on planet Earth should have.
Kind, Smart, Brave, Strong, Smiling, Loyal, Honest.
Why do you think people should be like this?
If people possess all these qualities, then wars and quarrels will disappear on earth. People will not suffer and hate each other. It doesn’t matter what nationality you are, what skin color you are.
And in conclusion I want to say
What is better than the geography of the subject can not be found
The world of geography is huge,
Strive to know him!
Conclusion. Nizhny Novgorod is one of the largest cities in Central Russia. There are many ancient Russian cities located here. Ples – the artist I. Levitan painted his famous landscapes here. Right. Middle Volga. The river here is narrow, fast, and rapids. A national park has been created in the picturesque expanses of Samarskaya Luka. Above sea level. Motor ships roll on the waves. The Rybinsk Reservoir is the largest in European Russia. Reservoirs make it possible to irrigate large areas of agricultural land. Cities and villages are washed with clean cool water.
“Saki Lake” - The work was offered to a student of 9th grade. The lake stretches from west to east for 5 km, its greatest width is 3 km. Chemistry. Winter is moderately cold, with an average air temperature of about 0? C. Results of microcrystalline analysis of water and dirt. The collected material was formatted and prepared for presentation. The legend of Lake Saki. Calcium ion analysis result. The characteristic gypsum crystals are visible. Conclusion: no phosphates. Economic use of the lake. Stage III.
“Sights of Kaliningrad” - Star-shaped fortress. Friedland Gate Museum. House of Officers. Lava Sluice. Recreation center "Forest Fairy Tale". The work was done by Natalya Erofeeva, a 9th grade student. Upper Lake. Botanical Garden. The Curonian Spit is an object of world cultural and natural heritage of Russia. Bastion "Grolman". Curonian Spit - view from space. The former building of the Riflemen's Union. Sculpture “Fighting Bisons”. Monument to the soldiers of the engineering troops who died in World War I. City school.
“Rational use of natural resources” - Age structure of forests in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Ha; middle-aged – 523 thousand hectares; ripening - 279 thousand. Research methods: The subject of the study is the forest resources of the Jewish Autonomous Region, district, village. A large amount of wood waste accumulates in forest plots and is not recycled. Bald spots with stumps can be seen literally in the vicinity of our village. Analyze the received data. Cutting down valuable timber has its negative consequences. Forest lands occupy 1,628 thousand hectares, or 76% of the forest fund area.
“Lake Ladoga” - The lake is rich in freshwater fish, which go into rivers to spawn. Valaam Islands Valaam Monastery. Also known is the island of Konevets, on which the monastery is also located. In the Ladoga region, 256 species of birds belonging to 17 orders are regularly found. 35 rivers flow into Lake Ladoga, but only one originates - the Neva. More than 50 species of birds have been recorded here during transit migration in spring and autumn. River Svir. Belongs to the Baltic Sea basin of the Atlantic Ocean.
“Desertification” - Slopes are plowed lengthwise to reduce water erosion. performed by 9b grade student Tanya Shubenkova. Factors of desertification. Desertification. Therefore, in a number of countries nature reserves have been created to protect semi-desert and desert zones. The desert is shaped not only by climate, but also by unreasonable human activity. In oil-producing countries, oil is often splashed onto loose, mobile soils. Today, the problem of protecting underground aquifers is acute. Experts estimate that more than 6,000,000 hectares of land become deserted every year.
NUMBER AND DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
Demography(from Greek demos- people and grapho- I am writing) is the science of the patterns of population reproduction, studying its numbers, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc.
The scientific theory of population considers the population participating in labor as the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. That is why population size is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and indeed of all humanity.
Table 1. Global population since 1000
Table 2. World population growth 1950-2001.
| Year | Total million people |
Annual growth, million people |
Year | Total million people |
Annual growth, million people |
| 1950 | 2527 | 37 | 1981 | 4533 | 80 |
| 1955 | 2779 | 53 | 1982 | 4614 | 81 |
| 1960 | 3060 | 41 | 1983 | 4695 | 80 |
| 1965 | 3345 | 70 | 1984 | 4775 | 81 |
| 1966 | 3414 | 69 | 1985 | 4856 | 83 |
| 1967 | 3484 | 71 | 1986 | 4941 | 86 |
| 1968 | 3355 | 74 | 1987 | 5029 | 87 |
| 1969 | 3629 | 75 | 1988 | 5117 | 86 |
| 1970 | 3724 | 78 | 1989 | 5205 | 87 |
| 1971 | 3782 | 77 | 1990 | 5295 | 88 |
| 1972 | 3859 | 77 | 1991 | 5381 | 83 |
| 1973 | 3962 | 76 | 1992 | 5469 | 81 |
| 1974 | 4012 | 74 | 1993 | 5556 | 80 |
| 1975 | 4086 | 72 | 1994 | 5644 | 80 |
| 1976 | 4159 | 73 | 1995 | 5734 | 78 |
| 1977 | 4131 | 72 | 1996 | 5811 | 77 |
| 1978 | 4301 | 75 | 1997 | 5881 | 71 |
| 1979 | 4380 | 76 | 1998 | 5952 | 71 |
| 1980 | 4457 | 76 | 1999 | 6020 | 68 |
| 2000 | 6091 | 71 |
In 1987, the world population reached 5 million people, and already in 1999, on October 12, it exceeded 6 million people.
Table 3. World population by country groups.
Table 4. Share of individual groups of countries in the world population, world GDP and world exports of goods and services in 2000, in%
| World population | World GDP* | World export | |
| Industrialized countries | 15,4 | 57,1 | 75,7 |
| G7 countries | 11,5 | 45,4 | 47,7 |
| EU | 6,2 | 20 | 36 |
| Developing countries | 77,9 | 37 | 20 |
| Africa | 12,3 | 3,2 | 2,1 |
| Asia | 57,1 | 25,5 | 13,4 |
| Latin America | 8,5 | 8,3 | 4,5 |
| Countries with economies in transition | 6,7 | 5,9 | 4,3 |
| CIS | 4,8 | 3,6 | 2,2 |
| CEE | 1,9 | 2,3 | 2,1 |
| For reference: | 6100 million people | $44550 billion | $7650 billion |
| *By currency purchasing power parity | |||
Table 5. Population of the largest countries in the world (millions of people).
| Countries | Number of inhabitants in 1990, million people |
Countries | Number of inhabitants in 2000, million people |
| China | 1120 | China | 1284 |
| India | 830 | India | 1010 |
| Soviet Union | 289 | USA | 281 |
| USA | 250 | Indonesia | 212 |
| Indonesia | 180 | Brazil | 170 |
| Brazil | 150 | Pakistan | 238,4 |
| Japan | 124 | Russia | 230,3 |
| Pakistan | 112 | Bangladesh | 196,1 |
| Bangladesh | 112 | Japan | 138,5 |
| Nigeria | 90 | Nigeria | 121,6 |
| Mexico | 86 | Mexico | 121,6 |
| Germany | 80 | Germany | 121,6 |
| Vietnam | 68 | Vietnam | 121,6 |
| Philippines | 60 | Philippines | 121,6 |
| Türkiye | 59 | Iran | 121,6 |
| Italy | 58 | Egypt | 121,6 |
| Thailand | 58 | Türkiye | 121,6 |
| United Kingdom | 57 | Ethiopia | 121,6 |
| France | 56 | Thailand | 121,6 |
| Ukraine | 52 | France | 121,6 |
| Commentary on Table 21. At the beginning of the 21st century, the population of Russia decreased to 144.1 million people. (data as of 10/01/2001), as a result of which it missed Pakistan ahead. | |||
Table 6. World population forecast for 2025
| The whole world regions |
Population, million people |
The whole world regions |
Population, million people |
| The whole world | 7825 | Africa | 1300 |
| Economically developed countries |
1215 | North America | 365 |
| Developing | 6610 | Latin America | 695 |
| CIS | 290 | Australia | 40 |
| Foreign Europe | 505 | ||
| Foreign Asia | 4630 |
Table 7. Forecast of the number of inhabitants in the twenty largest countries by population in the world for 2025.
| Countries | Population, million people |
Countries | Population, million people |
| China | 1490 | Japan | 120 |
| India | 1330 | Ethiopia | 115 |
| USA | 325 | Vietnam | 110 |
| Indonesia | 275 | Philippines | 110 |
| Pakistan | 265 | Congo | 105 |
| Brazil | 220 | Iran | 95 |
| Nigeria | 185 | Egypt | 95 |
| Bangladesh | 180 | Türkiye | 88 |
| Russia | 138 | Germany | 80 |
| Mexico | 130 | Thailand | 73 |
GROWTH RATE
Population growth rate shows by what percentage the population has increased in the current year compared to some earlier period (most often with the previous year, called the base year).
Doubling time- the time during which the population doubles.
Table 8. Growth rate (in %) and doubling time (in years) of the population.
| Period | World | Africa | Latin America |
North America |
Asia | Europe | Oceania | Former USSR |
| 1965-1970 | 2,06 | 2,64 | 2,6 | 1,13 | 2,44 | 0,66 | 1,97 | 1,00 |
| 1980-1995 | 1,74 | 2,99 | 2,06 | 0,82 | 1,87 | 0,25 | 1,48 | 0,78 |
| 2020-2025 | 0,99 | 1,90 | 1,12 | 0,34 | 0,89 | 0,05 | 0,76 | 0,47 |
| Time Doublings |
71 | 27 | 38 | 63 | 50 | 253 | 63 | 99 |
Minimum doubling time: Brunei (11), Qatar (13), UAE (13).
Maximum doubling time: Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary (1000 each),
Belgium, Poland, Falkland Islands, Puerto Rico (693 each).
As can be seen from the table, in different regions of the world the population today is growing unevenly: in some more slowly, in others faster, and in others very quickly. This is explained by the different nature of its reproduction.
POPULATION REPRODUCTION
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population- a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or: population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural (increase) movement.
Key Demographics
Absolute indicators:
- natural increase- the difference between the number of births and deaths;
- mechanical gain- the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
Relative:
- birth rate- the ratio of the total number of births in a country per year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of births for every thousand inhabitants;
- mortality rate- the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country for the year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
- rate of natural increase- the difference between the birth rate and death rate.
These ratios are measured in ppm (‰), but can be measured in percentage (%), i.e. In this case, calculations are carried out per 100 inhabitants.
"Formula" of reproduction- type of recording of relative demographic indicators: birth rate - death rate = natural increase rate.
Table 9. Demographic indicators of reproduction at the beginning of the 90s (in ‰).
Fertility, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But, nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people’s lives, as well as the relationships between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them.
The mortality rate depends, first of all, on the material living conditions of people: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic working and living conditions, and the development of healthcare.
The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society and the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. Most scientists associate the decline in the birth rate with the growth of cities and the spread of the urban lifestyle, which leads to an increasing involvement of women in production and social activities, an increase in the length of education for children and a general increase in the “price of a child.” Developed pension provision also leads to a decrease in the birth rate, because the role of the child as a “walking pension” is reduced to nothing. On the contrary, the rural lifestyle contributes to high birth rates, because in rural areas, a child already from 9-10 years old has extra labor. In poor countries where the social sphere is poorly developed, the child is the main breadwinner for elderly parents. High birth rates are also typical for Muslim countries, where the tradition of large families is supported by religion.
Wars, especially world wars, have a very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population, which lead to enormous human losses, both as a result of direct military action and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the severance of family ties.
An increase in mortality is caused by an increase in such unfavorable phenomena as crime, industrial injuries, natural and man-made disasters, accidents, and deterioration of environmental quality.
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION
In the most simplified form, we can talk about two types of population reproduction.
The first type of population reproduction. Demographic crisis. The first type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic “winter”, modern or rational type of reproduction) is characterized by low rates of fertility, mortality and, accordingly, natural increase. It has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is constantly growing; this in itself reduces the birth rate and increases the death rate.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children turn out to be a “burden” for parents. Industrial production and the service sector require highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term study, lasting until the age of 21-23. The decision to have a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman’s high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career and be financially independent.
But even among the countries of the first type of population reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished.
Firstly, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of 0.5-1% (or 5-10 people per 1000 inhabitants, or 5-10‰). In such countries, examples of which are the USA, Canada, and Australia, quite significant population growth is achieved.
To do this, it is necessary that approximately half of all families have two children, and half have three. Over time, two children “replace” their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc. and “compensates” for the lack of offspring in the childless, but also ensures a sufficient overall increase.
Secondly, these are countries with “zero” or close to it natural growth. Such growth (for example, in Italy, Great Britain, Poland) no longer ensures expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Table 10 . European countries with negative natural population growth in 2000
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Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
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Spain |
Sweden |
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Switzerland |
Romania |
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Greece |
Hungary |
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Austria |
Estonia |
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Italy |
Latvia |
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Czech Republic |
Belarus |
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Slovenia |
Russia |
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Lithuania |
Bulgaria |
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Germany |
Ukraine |
Thirdly, these are countries with negative natural increase, i.e. those where mortality exceeds birth rate. As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation(or demographic crisis).
It is most typical for Europe, where already one and a half dozen countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, etc.) have negative natural growth. Recently, Russia has become one of these countries.
The transition from a large family, typical of old Russia, to a small family took place in our country during the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real “collapse” in natural population growth rates began.
In the 90s As a result of a sharp decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, the population of Russia was supposed to decrease by several million people. And only thanks to the massive influx of migrants from other CIS countries and the Baltic countries, which compensated for this decline by more than 1/3, the population decline was not so large. The birth rate in Russia (less than 9 people per 1000 inhabitants) and in the late 90s. remains one of the lowest in the world.
So, in general, the economically developed countries of the world (their average natural growth rate is 0.4‰) are characterized by the so-called “rational” or “modern” type of population reproduction, mainly corresponding to the urban image and high standard of living of their population. But this does not exclude the fact that a number of European countries are experiencing a demographic crisis, which negatively affects or may affect their development.
The second type of population reproduction. "Population explosion". The second type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic “winter”) is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low death rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.
Table 11. Developing countries with the highest natural population growth in 1995-2000
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Countries |
Natural growth,%O |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
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Yemen |
Benin |
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Somalia |
Ghana |
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Niger |
Liberia |
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Mali |
Mauritania |
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DR Congo |
Pakistan |
Assignments: 9 Tests: 1 |