The number of Russian regions with a high level of debt burden has decreased to five, according to the NRA report. Mordovia set the record for the amount of debt in Russia

Photo: Alexey Filippov / RIA Novosti

The number of Russian regions located in the so-called red zone (the excess of public debt over the regional budget’s own revenues) decreased from eight to five over the year, according to a study by the National Rating Agency (available from RBC). Based on the results of 2017, this list of the most heavily indebted regions includes Mordovia, Khakassia, Kostroma region, Karelia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Mordovia retains its status as the largest debtor. Over the past year, the region’s debt problem has not only come no closer to being resolved, but has also become more complex, the NRA study notes. If at the end of 2016 the republic’s debt amounted to 176% of tax and non-tax revenues of the regional budget, then on January 1, 2018 it exceeded 200%, which is an absolute record for the regions of Russia.

In two other problem regions with a high debt burden - Kostroma region (111.07%) and Khakassia (122.55%) - for the first time in recent history. This means that due to the large volume of accumulated debts, they will be able to spend money only under the control of the Federal Treasury. “In fact, this means the introduction of external management of the regional budget and public debt. In the coming year, this practice may be extended to other regions with high public debt,” notes the NRA.

The Ministry of Finance’s plans to use a special tool for regions whose debt will exceed the established parameters became known at the end of last year. Speaking in December in the State Duma, regions whose total debt obligations on budget loans provided since the beginning of the year amounted to over 80% of their own budget revenues will be transferred to treasury support.

Also, on January 1, a program for restructuring budget loans to the regions was launched. It will last seven years, during which time the budget will receive 55 billion rubles. In the first two years, the regions will need to pay only 5% of their debt each year, which, according to the president, will allow the regions to “rescue” 438 billion rubles.

At the same time, in 2017, the number of regions located in the “green zone” (public debt in the amount of less than 10% of the regional budget’s own revenues) increased from nine to eleven. Now they include the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Vladimir Region, the Republic of Crimea, St. Petersburg, Primorsky Territory, Leningrad Region, Altai Territory, Moscow, Tyumen Region, as well as Sevastopol and Sakhalin Region (in the last two regions there is no public debt at all).

Regions refuse help from banks

The total volume of public debt of Russian regions last year decreased slightly (by 1.6%) and amounted to 2.315 trillion rubles, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. In the structure of the total public debt of the regions, as of January 1, 2018, budget loans accounted for 43.64% of the total. A year earlier, this figure was 42.09%, according to the NRA study.

“The federal center continues its policy of providing regions with cheap budget loans, however, the volume of such financing is gradually decreasing and mainly weak regions can apply for it, while strong ones have to look for alternative sources of debt financing,” the agency writes.

As for bank loans (almost 667 billion rubles as of January 1), their share in the structure of regional public debt continues to decline (from 34.36 to 28.81% in 2017). The share of government debt securities, on the contrary, is growing (from 19.44 to 23.69%). According to the authors of the study, this trend indicates that issuing bonds rather than obtaining bank loans is becoming a more attractive option for the regions.

“Debt securities of Russian regions are in demand among investors (most of the bonds of Russian regions are traded above par value), and current market conditions make their placement more profitable compared to attracting loans from commercial banks,” the report says.

At the end of 2017, 52 entities reduced their public debt, as follows from the operational report of the Accounts Chamber on budget execution. The largest reduction in public debt was noted in the Chelyabinsk region and Moscow - by 1.8 times, the Leningrad region - by 1.6 times, Primorye - by 29.8%, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - by 25%.

An increase in public debt, according to the Accounts Chamber, was recorded in 31 regions. Among the “distinguished” regions, auditors name St. Petersburg - by 2.5 times, Kamchatka Territory - by 37.9%, Mordovia - by 24.3%, the Republic of Adygea - by 21.7%, Tula Region - by 18.7 %.

At the same time, as the department notes, the regions remain dependent on financial assistance from the federal budget. “The income of eight entities as of January 1, 2018 was more than 60% generated from gratuitous receipts from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation,” follows from the report. We are talking about Ingushetia, Chechnya, Tyva, Dagestan, the Altai Republic, Crimea, Karachay-Cherkessia and the Kaliningrad region.

Every sixth republic or region of the country has a debt greater than its annual income

Russia still remains an empire in the sense that the differences between individual regions reach unrealistic levels. Public finances were no exception. The ratio of debt to tax and non-tax revenues in Russian regions ranges from 0% to almost 200%.

Among the most prosperous subjects of the Russian Federation (with a debt load of less than 10% of annual income) are Moscow and St. Petersburg, where most of the largest companies in Russia are registered, the oil and gas regions of the Sakhalin and Tyumen regions, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, plus the recently annexed Sevastopol and the Republic of Crimea . Moreover, the Sakhalin region and Sevastopol had no debts as of January 1, 2016.

On the opposite side there are 14 regions whose debt exceeds their annual income. Among them are the primordially Russian, now depressed regions of the Non-Black Earth Smolensk, Pskov and Kostroma regions, the Volga republics of Mari El and Mordovia (the latter, with a debt load of almost twice the annual income, is an anti-leader among all subjects of the Russian Federation), the North Caucasus republics of Ingushetia and North Ossetia. As well as several regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East: the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the Trans-Baikal Territory and the Jewish Autonomous Region.

The total debt of the regions as of January 1, 2016 exceeded 2.3 trillion rubles (total revenues were about 6.3 trillion rubles). At the same time, about a third of the debt, 809 billion rubles, was made up of budget loans from the federal center. If budget loans are subtracted from the regions’ debt, that is, only “commercial” debt is taken into account, then not a single region of Russia has a debt burden that exceeds its annual income.

Igor Terentyev

IA "RBC", 12/05/16, “Chechnya and Crimea are on the mend”

Federal subsidies to Chechnya and Crimea in 2017 will practically remain at the 2016 level, although subsidies to other regions will increase by more than 15%, as follows from government amendments to the second reading of the budget.

Chechnya, after a sharp speech by its leader Ramzan Kadyrov against cutting funding for the republic, will receive subsidies worth 40.4 billion rubles from the federal budget in 2017. - almost the same as in 2016. This follows from government amendments to the second reading of the budget for 2017–2019. They were approved by the State Duma Budget Committee last Friday without discussion.

Subsidies to the Republic of Crimea will decrease slightly in 2017 (to 37.2 billion rubles), as follows from the same amendments.

Chechnya and Crimea will receive part of the subsidies in the general manner - so-called subsidies to the regions to equalize budgetary security. The distribution of equalization grants is presented in the annex approved by the committee along with the corresponding government amendment. These subsidies were distributed at the end of November at a meeting of the tripartite commission, which includes deputies, senators and officials of the Ministry of Finance, deputies of the budget committee previously explained to RBC. According to this application, in 2017 an amount of 24 billion rubles is allocated for Chechnya, 18.5 billion for Crimea.

These are large, but not the most outstanding amounts: for example, Dagestan in 2017 will receive 52.4 billion rubles, Yakutia - 36.6 billion rubles, Kamchatka - 37.16 billion rubles. These three regions should also become the largest recipients of subsidies to equalize budgetary security in 2016. In total, the federal budget will allocate 614.6 billion rubles in 2017 for this type of subsidies to the regions. - by 100 billion rubles. more than in 2016.

With a separate amendment for Chechnya, Crimea and Sevastopol, the government decided to allocate another type of subsidies - to balance their budgets. According to the government's initiative, Chechnya will receive 16.4 billion rubles for balance, Crimea - 18.65 billion, Sevastopol - 5.17 billion (a subsidy to equalize budgetary security for Sevastopol is provided in the amount of 2.17 billion rubles). This government amendment was also approved by the Duma Budget Committee. The amendments do not say how subsidies will be distributed to other regions to balance budgets.

As a result, both Chechnya and Crimea will become recipients of some of the largest federal subsidies in 2017: funding for Chechnya (excluding various subsidies and subventions that it is entitled to along with other regions) will amount to 40.4 billion rubles, and for Crimea - 37. 15 billion rubles. In 2016, Chechnya will receive subsidies of approximately 41 billion rubles, and Crimea - 37.8 billion rubles.

Neither the government representatives nor the leadership of the Duma Budget Committee gave any explanations for these decisions; the government’s initiative did not raise any questions among the deputies.

The total volume of subsidies from the federal budget to the regions of Russia is planned for 2017 in the amount of 738.3 billion rubles. - approximately 97 billion rubles. (15%) more than expected at the end of 2016, follows from the materials of the draft federal budget, which is now being prepared for the second reading. This means that subsidies to other regions (except Chechnya and Crimea) will increase by more than 15%.

Earlier, at the end of October, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, spoke out against the Ministry of Finance’s plans to cut funding for the republic’s budget. According to him, previously the Chechen authorities “agreed to cut the budget,” but the current plan of the federal authorities threatens the Chechen authorities to fail to fulfill their social obligations. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov responded that Kadyrov’s fears were premature: the head of Chechnya cannot know what subsidies the republic will receive next year, since interbudgetary transfers had not yet been distributed.

Kadyrov spoke out against the Finance Ministry’s plans to cut Chechnya’s budget

The Crimean and Sevastopol authorities did not publicly ask for an increase in funding from the federal budget. However, for these regions, the government provided not only subsidies, but also introduced a large package of amendments to the second reading, which provides for additional subsidies in all areas.

Chechnya’s budget revenues are 85% made up of gratuitous revenues from the federal center (grants, subventions, subsidies and other revenues), and Crimea’s budget revenues are 67%, as follows from the budget laws for 2016 of the two republics.

What other amendments have been prepared for the second reading?

A quarter of budget loans will be reserved “just in case”

The Budget Committee approved the United Russia amendment to double the budget allocations for loans to the regions in 2017 and 2018. The total volume of ultra-cheap budget loans to the regions will be increased from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. annually. However, for now only 150 billion rubles will be distributed between the regions. in the form of loans, noted Chairman of the Budget Committee Andrei Makarov. 50 billion rubles. will remain in reserve in case some regions require urgent assistance during the year, the deputy explained.

Deputies have found a way to avoid increasing health insurance premiums

There will be no increase in insurance premiums from 5.1 to 5.9% to the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund (MHIF) in 2019. The Duma Budget Committee approved an amendment by its chairman Andrei Makarov to the budget of this fund, according to which the deficit of the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund will be compensated from the federal budget. The new balancing mechanism, which sources in the government and the Duma previously announced to RBC, will be as follows: if MHIF collections from the working population in 2019 turn out to be less than 1.3 trillion rubles, a decision will be made to increase the tariff for compulsory health insurance for the non-working population , follows from the text of Makarov’s amendment. An increase in the contribution rate for the non-working population will mean an increase in regional budget expenditures, since regional authorities pay for medical care to the non-working population. However, Makarov’s amendment establishes that, simultaneously with increasing the contribution rate for the non-working population, the federal authorities will introduce a special subsidy to the regions so that they can pay off the Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund.

Wealthy regions will be allowed to fund the police

Regions that do not receive subsidies from the federal budget will be allowed to subsidize the federal budget “in order to co-finance the fulfillment of Russia’s spending obligations for logistical support of police activities.” This government amendment was approved by the Duma Budget Committee on December 2. Currently, there are 13 donor regions in Russia, Chairman of the Budget Committee Andrei Makarov said on a different occasion. Earlier, representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs at a meeting of the budget committee announced a shortage of almost 500 billion rubles in 2017–2019. to fight crime. By the second reading of the budget, the government found additional funds for the implementation of the relevant state program, but far from the volumes requested by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Government for 20 billion rubles. tempered expectations for Rosneftegaz dividends

The government reduced by 20 billion rubles. the minimum dividend level expected from the state-owned Rosneftegaz in 2017 (owns 69.5% of Rosneft shares and 10.97% of Gazprom shares). According to the draft budget adopted by the Duma in the first reading, 156.46 billion rubles were expected from the company. (everything more than this amount was promised to be transferred to state companies developing the Il-114 aircraft and modernizing the Il-96). For the second reading, the government asked to reduce the expected minimum dividends of Rosneftegaz to 136 billion rubles. The officials did not give any explanation to the deputies for this decision.

Svetlana Bocharova

In addition to sovereign debt, the general debt system of the Russian Federation includes subfederal and municipal debt. It is a consequence of the accumulated budget deficit of regions and local budgets. More than 20 subjects of the Federation have a deficit exceeding 5% of income, including such large ones as the Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk territories.

The total share of regional and municipal debt is consistently at the level of 20% of the country's total debt. The amount of debt is presented in table. 7.9.

Table 7.9. Subfederal and municipal debt

The largest share (85%) of the territories' debt is occupied by the debt of the subjects of the Federation. Over the past 5 years, the volume of public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation has consistently increased by an average of 25% annually (Fig. 7.13). As of November 1, 2013, the debt of the constituent entities of the Federation amounted to 1.47 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP.

Rice. 7.13.

In accordance with the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the maximum amount of public debt of a subject of the Federation and municipal debt should not exceed the total annual budget revenues of the subject of the Federation and the municipality without taking into account gratuitous revenues. For constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in whose budgets the share of interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget (with the exception of subventions, as well as subsidies from the Investment Fund of the Russian Federation) during two of the last three reporting financial years exceeded 60% of the volume of own revenues of the consolidated budget of the subject, the maximum amount of public debt is limited 50% of the above income.

The maximum amount of expenses for servicing the public debt of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation or municipal debt in a financial year should not exceed 15% of the volume of expenses of the corresponding budget (excluding expenses from subventions from other budgets).

As of September 1, 2012, the share of budget loans in the structure of regional debt exceeded 37%, the share of securities amounted to almost 30%, the share of bank and other loans accounted for about 24%, and the share of state guarantees of entities - almost 10% (Fig. 7.14).

Rice. 7.14.

The market debt of territories in the form of issues of securities of regions and municipalities at the end of 2012 amounted to 345 billion rubles. (Table 7. 10). This is 7.5% of the total volume of the government securities market. The portfolio of regional bonds traded on the Moscow Exchange consisted of 92 issues from 36 issuers. The largest borrower is Moscow (44% of all issues).

Table 7.10. Domestic market for subfederal and municipal bonds, billion rubles.

A peculiarity of the structure of regional debt is that in recent years the share of market debt has been falling, while the share of loans from other budgets has been growing.

The growth of budget loans is explained by a conscious national policy; In the coming years, budget lending to the regions will decrease, which will give the regions greater freedom to issue securities.

Regions have the right to borrow from abroad. Under the terms of the Budget Code, six entities can now borrow from abroad: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tyumen Region, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Bashkortostan. But in fact, only the city of Moscow and the Republic of Bashkortostan have debts in foreign currency to foreign banks. In order to enter foreign markets only financially stable regions, it is planned to introduce the following norm. For external loans, it is necessary to have credit ratings from at least two leading international rating agencies at a level not lower than the level of sovereign ratings of Russia. Only four of the six entities that are allowed to borrow abroad have the required credit ratings.

At the same time, many bonds of the constituent entities of the Federation and municipalities are of high quality: 35 issues are included in the Lombard List of the Bank of Russia. This is a list of high-quality reliable assets against which the Bank of Russia issues loans to commercial banks.

Accumulated debts require regions to pursue a balanced debt policy. Regulation and monitoring of the state of public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipal debt are of great importance. It is planned to strictly adhere to budgetary restrictions on the maximum amount of debt, deficit, and debt servicing costs. To ease financial stress in the regions, it is open regional debt restructuring program for budget loans, including consolidation of loans, write-off of fines and penalties and repayment of loans in equal installments until 2016.

In order to strengthen the financial sustainability of regional budgets, it is possible to create reserve funds of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation similar to sovereign funds. This is especially important for those entities whose income is subject to changes in the macroeconomic environment and where large taxpayers are registered. The region will be able to cover from its reserve fund a deficit of more than 10% of the revenue portion - without taking into account federal transfers and funds from privatization and regional property.

Rating of Russian regions by debt. The volume of debt of the federal subjects in Russia is still relatively small, but at the beginning of this year, already a third of the regions fall into the zone of debt instability, and a tenth of them violate the debt standards established by law.

The debt of the subjects of the Federation in Russia as of January 1, 2017 amounted to 2.35 trillion rubles. Debt of municipalities – 0.36 trillion. This is quite a bit for the large Russian economy: a total of about 3.2% of the country's GDP. For comparison: the federal public debt of the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2017 was four times larger - about 10.4 trillion rubles. (internal and external).

But when compared with the regions’ own incomes, the debt burden on the regions seems significant - it amounts to about a third of their own incomes. This is a significant, if not critical, value.

However, 42% of this debt is the non-market debt of the regions to the Russian Federation (the interest rate on it is 0.1% per year, compare with commercial rates - above 10%). It is clear that with such percentages, the share of debt servicing costs on average in the budgets of the constituent entities is very small (2.3% on average as of January 1, 2016).

Regional debt has been growing significantly over the past 10 years. During the previous crisis (2008–2009), it jumped from 15% of the regions’ own income to 25%. The current one increased it to 32.8% in 2016.

In recent years, a policy has been pursued of gradually replacing commercial loans with budget ones. The share of commercial loans in the government debt of constituent entities decreased from 66% in 2013 to 54% in 2016. But it is obvious that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is carrying out this replacement reluctantly and slowly, and is not at all eager to take on the debts of the regions. Although sometimes this seems preferable to the Ministry of Finance than providing the regions with additional non-repayable subsidies. In addition, there are purely political benefits of such a strategy - the regions’ dependence on the government and the Kremlin increases, which is important during the pre-election period.

The financial department strongly emphasizes that the process of replacing commercial loans with budget ones is a temporary anti-crisis measure. In 2016, in the first 11 months, the Ministry of Finance provided regions with interbudgetary loans worth 305 billion rubles. (including repayment – ​​185 billion rubles). This is almost 8% of the regions’ debt – in general, a lot. For 2017–2018, the budget law plans to provide them in the amount of 200 billion rubles. (this amount was “knocked out” during the bargaining in the Federation Council, the figures were initially expected to be half that amount), and in 2019 – 50 billion rubles. The replacement process is slowing down.

The share of securities in regional debt has remained unchanged over the past two years – 19% (2013 – 26%). The leadership of the constituent entities of the Federation was clearly unable to implement Vladimir Putin’s recommendation on the preference for using bond mechanisms for raising funds over bank loans. At the beginning of 2017, 44 regions (more than half) had no debt in securities. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2016, 74 subjects of the Federation planned to attract bank loans, but only 27 planned to issue bonds (22 regions actually carried it out). At the same time, the main instrument for placing regional bonds on the market is not auctions, but “bookbuilding” (formation of an order book, in fact, an auction in reverse, with a decrease in the rate). In the practice of issuing bonds of the Russian Federation on the domestic market, almost only an auction is used. This demonstrates a clear lack of demand for regional bonds.

"Beyond the Line"

8 regions - almost every tenth - have already turned out to be fined, violating the Budget Code of the Russian Federation. It prohibits regions from borrowing above the level of their own income (for highly subsidized regions - 50% of their own income). A list of these 8 regions is shown on the map).

However, the restrictions of the Budget Code in practice are very “soft”. Until January 1, 2018, the amount of budget debt is not taken into account in the maximum amount of the state debt of the subject, as well as the amount of budget loans attracted in the current year. Taking this into account, only one region out of 8 is “penalized” - the Republic of Khakassia with its large share of commercial loans. And the leader - Mordovia - drops from the sky-high 176% to an acceptable 77%. And there are no penalties for violating the state debt limits of subjects established by the Code. However, the Ministry of Finance, of course, has quite enough leverage to “call to order” especially outstanding ones.

But there is no great desire to use them. For example, the financial department was unable or unwilling to oppose Mordovia’s powerful borrowing program: over the past 3 years, it has increased its debt by more than 1.5 times, including through budget loans. It seems that no one in the country is particularly concerned about the situation, including Mordovia itself. Why should she worry? Despite the record debt, the cost of servicing it in the 2017 budget is a modest 2.4% - almost at the level of the regional average for Russia.

The only concern is the international rating agency Fitch, which in February 2016 assigned and in August confirmed a long-term rating for Mordovia at B+, with a stable outlook. It classifies it as a high-risk speculative rating: “financial obligations are currently being met, but the ability to continue payments is vulnerable if the business environment or economic conditions deteriorate.” For comparison: Russia's rating, according to Fitch, is BBB- (below average reliability).

Fitch commented on its decision on Mordovia in August as follows: “the republic’s volatile operating performance and high direct risk due to significant capital expenditures, which are mitigated by obtaining long-term loans from the federal budget at a low interest rate.” And it threatened the republic with a downgrade if the “direct risk” (the ratio of debt to own income) exceeds 140%. As we see, it exceeded, and significantly. So far Fitch has not responded to this.

The above-mentioned “fine” Republic of Khakassia, even under the current lenient requirements of the Budget Code, with a high commercial debt, is assessed by the same Fitch more favorably: its rating is higher, BB-, the forecast is stable. “Khakassia’s operating balance is acceptable, which nevertheless remains insufficient to cover increased interest payments due to the high direct risk accumulated as a result of a significant budget deficit,” agency analysts write.

What about the Ministry of Finance? In the recently published “Main Directions of Debt Policy...” he admits violations in 8 regions and that in 2017 several more regions will cross the “line.” But the average level of debt burden of the subjects is assessed as “acceptable”, since it “does not bear significant risks of a debt crisis.”

"Red Zone"

The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines two criteria for the debt sustainability of subjects:

– debt to own income,

– debt servicing costs to total budget expenditures*.

According to the second criterion, the regions are doing well - due to the high share of interbudgetary loans in debt with almost zero interest. But there are obvious problems with the first criterion.

The Ministry of Finance considers regions with “low debt sustainability” to be those whose debt-to-income ratio is over 85% (for highly subsidized entities – over 45%). The list includes 24 regions according to the first criterion (8 “beyond the line” and 16 “below the line”). According to the second criterion, 3–4 dozen regions** may qualify, of which no more than a dozen have a debt-to-income ratio below 45%.

Thus, more than a third of Russian regions fall into the “low debt sustainability” column, and a tenth are frankly below the debt risk line.

The list of “red zone” regions itself looks very diverse: there are national republics and Central Russian regions. The regions are headed (they were during the collection of debt) by both pro-government “appointees” and former communists or completely liberal governors. But what is practically absent there are neither donor regions (they earn enough to borrow little) nor subsidized regions (they have too little of their own income to borrow much).

"Norm"

2 regions do not have public debt at all - this is the “donor” Sakhalin region, which has been making good money for the last decade on PSA oil projects, and the “subsidized” city of Sevastopol, which has more receipts from the federal budget than its own income, and apparently did not have time to collect for the last 3 years of loans. But the Republic of Crimea made it: its debt is 5.4 billion rubles. (17.5% of own income).

9 regions of the country have public debt below 10% of their own income - these are mainly rich regions with high tax revenues. The Altai Territory looks strange in this list with its subsidy rate of 66%; it clearly lags behind other regions with its borrowings. But, according to the three-year budget he adopted, the region is beginning to actively borrow and will leave this group already this year (i.e., it will accumulate debt).

Here, “normally”, are almost all the “donor” regions **** - Moscow, St. Petersburg, oil and gas Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as Tatarstan and others. The debt of these regions has one distinct feature - it is mainly government securities. Thus, in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug their share amounted to 87% of the region’s total debt, in Moscow – 78%, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory – 63%. The remaining part of the debt is inter-budgetary loans; these regions borrow little from banks (too expensive, bonds are cheaper). Their credit ratings, as a rule, are at the level of the Russian Federation or slightly lower.

But the leading regions in terms of the level of subsidies entered the “average”, above the Ministry of Finance “norm” (with debt from 50% to 85% of their own income). These are Ingushetia (receipts from the federal budget are 7.9 times higher than their own income), Chechnya (5.4 times), Tyva (4.3 times), etc. With such low own income, even a small debt already brings these regions to a high level .

Debt "traffic light"

Thus, approximately a third of the subjects are in the “green” (within the Ministry of Finance’s “norm”) in the “red” (risky) zones, and the remaining third are in the “yellow”.

The average level of regional debt does not pose a threat to the country. Even debt leaders today are very far from the possibility of default. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Finance took measures to contain regional budget deficits, causing them to enter the commercial loan market. So far, nothing special has been needed for this. Enough of the “moral” work with debtors... and the pressure of the level of subsidies. In 2016, the growth of regional debt practically stopped, and its structure for the regions improved - the share of budget loans with near-zero interest increased. Even debt-leader regions with pre-default ratings (for example, one letter “B” from Fitch) have not yet encountered difficulties in making new loans. And they are even planning to enter the government securities market. The amount of debt service for the regions of the “red” zone is not critical for the federal budget.

But what could happen if oil prices suddenly go down and the federal budget deficit begins to increase? The instability of the federal situation can immediately spread to the regional level. In addition, this year will be the last to calculate the results of the implementation of the May (2012) presidential decrees, according to which the main share of funding is assigned to the regions. How can they report? The problem of regional debts is still small (although it is growing), but, as they say, it is not the path up the mountain that irritates, but the pebble in the shoe...

* The BC RF sets the limit value of this indicator at 15%. The Ministry of Finance considers the share of service costs in the total own expenses of St. to be critical. 8%, but almost all Russian regions, as far as one can judge, are still outside the risk zone.
** Highly subsidized regions are those in which gratuitous receipts from the federal budget exceed 40% of the volume of own revenues of the consolidated budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation during two of the last three years. Accurate calculations are very labor-intensive; the list of highly subsidized regions is not officially published.
*** See “Recommendations for the implementation by constituent entities of the Russian Federation of a responsible borrowing/debt policy” on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
**** See the list of “donor” regions in the “Rating of Russian Regions”, “Profile” No. 47 dated December 19, 2016.

The largest contribution to the reduction in the total volume of public debt of the regions of the Russian Federation, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, has decreased since the beginning of this year by 6% to 2.212 trillion rubles as of October 1, was made by the Sverdlovsk region and Moscow. This was reported by the RIA Rating agency, which compiled a rating of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the level of debt burden based on the results of nine months of 2017.

As analysts point out, the share in the structure of public debt continues to increase budget loans: as of October 1, 2017 it was 50%. The share of commercial loans decreased by 10 percentage points to 24%. In nine Russian regions, budget loans account for 100% of public debt, and in another four this share exceeds 90%.

Commercial loans 55 Russian regions are present in the debt structure, while a year earlier there were 13 more such regions. In 14 regions, the share of commercial loans in the total debt structure exceeds 50%, including in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug it is 100%. But the debt burden on the NAO budget is low: as of October 1, the ratio of public debt to tax and non-tax revenues of the district budget was 16.5%, showing a noticeable decrease compared to the result at the end of 2016. Of the 14 regions where the share of commercial loans is above 50% of the public debt, in nine the debt burden on the budget exceeds 80%.

Specific gravity government securities rose to 21%. The largest share of government securities in the total volume of government debt is still observed in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra (87%). The Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug increased the share of government securities to 82%. Share state guarantees in the structure of regional debts for the nine months of 2017 did not change and amounted to 4%.

The first federal placement of regional government bonds for individuals took place in Russia

The Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug placed its debut issue of government bonds for the population. The issuer was the Department of Finance of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the placement agents were Gazprombank and Zapsibkombank.

Volume municipal debt amounted to 353.9 billion rubles, which is 2.8% lower than as of January 1, 2017. The total volume of public debt of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the debt of municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation as of October 1 amounted to 2.566 trillion rubles (minus 5.6% from the beginning of the year).

Russian regions continue to demonstrate multidirectional dynamics in the volume of public debt, while the debt burden was reduced in 49 regions, including in 15 regions the public debt decreased by more than 20% over nine months. The leader was the Republic of Crimea, whose public debt has decreased by 92.6%. St. Petersburg (by 42.6%), Perm Territory (by 39.9%), Tver Region (by 33.5%) and the Chuvash Republic (by 30.5%) also significantly reduced their debt.

In six Russian regions, the volume of public debt did not change over the nine months of 2017, while in 28 it increased. Ahead of everyone else in terms of pace increasing the volume of public debt Kalmykia (plus 25.4%) and Ingushetia (plus 25.1%). In three more regions of the Russian Federation, the volume of public debt increased by more than 15%. In Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region there is still no public debt.

The most significant public debt remains with the Krasnodar Territory (142.2 billion rubles), but over the nine months of this year it decreased by 5.2%. The next three regions with public debt exceeding 90 billion rubles also did not change. This group includes the Moscow region (90.4 billion rubles), the Krasnoyarsk Territory (92.8 billion) and Tatarstan (93.4 billion), and in the first two regions the volume of public debt decreased slightly this year, while in Tatarstan it remained unchanged .

Demonstrated the most noticeable reduction in public debt in absolute terms The Sverdlovsk region and Moscow reduced the figure by 16.6 billion and 14.1 billion rubles, respectively. In another nine regions, public debt decreased by 6-9 billion. These 11 leading regions provided 73% of the reduction in the total public debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Of the 28 regions that increased public debt, the most noticeable increase in absolute terms noted in the Kostroma region (plus 5.1 billion rubles), Yakutia (plus 5.3 billion) and Mordovia (plus 6.5 billion).

General debt level regions continues to decline. Attitude total national debt all regions as of October 1, 2017 To total volume of tax and non-tax revenues for 12 months(from September 1, 2016 to September 1, 2017) amounted to 30%, which is 3.8 percentage points lower than at the beginning of 2017. But the range of values ​​regionally is still very wide: from 0% in Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region to 194.2% in Mordovia.

In addition to Mordovia, in seven more regions of the Russian Federation the volume of public debt exceeds tax and non-tax budget revenues(including Khakassia, which declared a financial catastrophe today with a debt burden of 144.5%. - Note by Banki.ru). In addition to Mordovia and Khakassia, the number of regions with a debt burden exceeding income includes the Kostroma region, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karelia, Smolensk, Pskov regions, as well as the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Khakassia announced a financial disaster in the region

The Supreme Council of Khakassia appealed to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin with a request to allocate 28.2 billion rubles to the region, according to a message on the council’s website.

In 39 Russian regions, public debt as of October 1, 2017 ranged from 50% to 100% of tax and non-tax budget revenues, of which in 23 constituent entities of the Russian Federation public debt exceeded 70% of their own revenues.

Low debt burden(up to 10%) remains in ten Russian regions. The Republic of Crimea returned to this group, having almost completely paid off its public debt; this top ten also includes Sevastopol and the Sakhalin region with a zero debt burden, the Tyumen region, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Altai Territory, Leningrad Region, Primorsky Territory and Vladimir Region.

As of October 1 debt burden reduced 57 Russian regions. The leader in decline was the Astrakhan region (minus 38.7 p.p.), the Tver region (minus 22.7 p.p.) and the Kemerovo region (minus 21.2 p.p.) were also in the top three. The most significant in Kabardino-Balkaria (plus 36.5 percentage points), Kostroma region (plus 20.4 percentage points) and Mordovia (plus 18.2 percentage points).

According to experts from the RIA Rating agency, the trend towards reducing public debt and the debt burden will probably not be maintained until the end of the year. Despite the fact that regional authorities have begun to take a more conservative approach to the issue of increasing borrowing, in November - December many have to resort to this method of replenishing the regional treasury to fulfill various social obligations. Therefore, based on the results of 2017, RIA Rating expects the growth of regional public debt within 5%, and tax and non-tax revenues of regional budgets - within 10%. In this case, the debt burden will be 31-32% and will not change significantly compared to last year’s result.