FEDERAL EDUCATION AGENCY

Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3		Object No. 4	Object No. 5
Selling price	65000		78000	56000		70000	54000
Ownership	complete		complete	complete		complete	complete
Conditions fi- funding	non-market, overpriced by 3000		non-market, overpriced by 8000	market		market	market
Terms of sale	market		market	market		market	market
Market conditions (time)	2 weeks		6 weeks		1 year	1 year	1 year
House area	120 sq.m.		145 sq.m.		120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.
Land area	10000 sq.m		12000 sq.m		10000 sq.m	12000 sq.m	10000 sq.m
Number of rooms	6		7		6	7	6
Number of bedrooms	3		3		3	3	3
Bath	1		1		1	1	1
Shower	1		1		1	1	1
Basement	not finished		not finished		not finished	not finished	finished
Garage	There is		There is		There is	There is	No

As can be seen from the source data, the comparison objects differ from the one being evaluated in terms of financing, time of sale and physical characteristics.

The amount of adjustment for financing conditions is determined by comparing the sales price of objects with market and non-market financing. In this case, loan payments are discounted at the market interest rate. In our example, the adjustment values ​​are defined as 3000 for object No. 1 and 8000 for object No. 2.

Since all comparable properties have market conditions of sale, no adjustment for sales conditions is required.

To adjust for market conditions (time of sale), it is necessary to select objects that differ only in this element. In our case, object No. 1 and No. 3 differ only in terms of financing and time of sale. By adjusting the selling price

object No. 1 on the terms of financing, you can determine the adjustment at the time of sale:

(62000 – 56000) / 156000 = 0.1.I.e. Over the course of a year, prices on the market will increase by 10%.

Thus, all comparable objects are brought into the same conditions regarding financing and time of sale, which creates a single basis for making adjustments for other elements of comparison.

In a number of comparison objects, differences in size are represented by different numbers of rooms and different areas of the house and plot. Moreover, a plot of 12,000 sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​145 sq.m. with 7 rooms, and a plot of 10,000 sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​120 sq.m. with 6 rooms. Hence, the adjustment for size from the comparison of objects No. 1 and No. 2 has the following form:

70000 – 62000 = 8000.

The adjustment for the presence of a garage is derived from a comparison of objects No. 3 and No. 5:

61600 – 59400 = 2200.

The adjustment for the finished basement is determined from a comparison of objects No. 2 and No. 4:

77000 – 70000 = 7000.

The results of the adjustments made are given in table No. 2

Table No. 2.

Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3	Object No. 4	Object No. 5
Selling price	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Transfer of ownership rights validity	complete	complete	complete	complete	complete
Correction of legal regulations	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Financing terms	not market	not market	not market	not market	market
Adjustment for financing conditions.	- 3000	- 8000	0	0	0
Adjusted price	62000	70000	56000	70000	54000
Terms of a transaction	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial
Adjustment based on the terms of the transaction	0	0	0	0	0
Adjusted price to market conditions	2 weeks	6 weeks	1 year	1 year	1 year
Adjustment based on market conditions	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %
Adjusted price	62000	70000	61600	77000	59400
Location	similar	similar	similar	similar	similar
Size	120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.
Adjust for size	0	- 8000	0	- 8000	0
Garage	There is	There is	There is	There is	No
Correction for the presence of a garage	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	0
Finished basement	No	No	No	Yes	No
Correction for the basement	+ 7000	+ 7000	+ 7000	0	+ 7000
Adjusted price	66800	66800	66400	66800	66400
Overall net correction	1800	11200	10400	3200	12400
The same in %	3	14	19	5	23
From the selling price the total gross adjustment	11200	25200	14800	17200	12400
From the selling price	19	32	26	25	23

An adjusted price was obtained for each comparison object. In accordance with the conditions of the problem, it is required to derive the market value based on the data of adjusted sales prices.

The rationale for deriving a single indicator of market value is to give each member of the series of adjusted sales prices a weighting factor, taking into account the degree to which the objects of comparison differ from the objects of evaluation. In this case, one should take into account

attention to the range of dispersion of sales prices, the total % of adjustments taken by absolute value, the total % of adjustments defined as the difference between positive and negative adjustments, as well as any other data.

In this example, we have a practically very narrow range of sales prices - from 66,400 to 66,800. However, the sales price with smaller adjustments is assigned a greater share - for object No. 5, the number of adjustments = 2. In addition, the amount of the total gross adjustment for object No. 5 is the same almost the smallest. Therefore, the sale price of object No. 5 – 66,400 – was taken as the market value of the comparison object.

3.2 Investment risks and real estate market statistics.

Real estate market statistics usually contain information on rental rates and profitability indicators. For data comparability, the information refers only to first-class properties. It is believed that such objects meet the highest requirements for location, equipment, communication support, planning solutions, etc., and rental rates are determined in the same standards for measuring and distributing costs between the owner and the tenant for maintenance, repairs, insurance, etc. .

Information regarding rental rates is considered available. To unify it, only verification of the mentioned adequacy is required. Information about profitability indicators is more difficult to prepare. Since there are not so many purchase and sale transactions, previously completed transactions are taken into account, data on various objects are integrated, time gaps, inflation and other processes are taken into account. Profitability indicators also contain information about regional risks, and here the expert approach predominates. Therefore, statistics is one of the specializations in real estate markets.

The intensification of business and investment in the region is necessarily accompanied by an increase in the office market, an increase in demand, occupancy and rental rates. At the same time, new construction and modernization of offices is stimulated, followed by service departments, shopping complexes, leisure centers, etc. Such processes today are characteristic of the largest business centers: the traditional financial capitals of America and the Old World, the rapidly growing capitals of Southeast Asia, China and India. Analysis of rental business statistics indicates a number of interesting phenomena. For example:

Rental rate data is significantly more dynamic than yield data; the dynamics of rental rates is characterized by a certain fluctuation, reflecting (albeit with shifts) the general processes of ups and downs; changes in office and retail real estate indicators may not coincide in time and magnitude; improvements in the market situation are reflected in an increase in rental rates and, less often, in a decrease in profitability indicators (due to their noticeably less dynamism); an asymmetrical picture also occurs when the market situation worsens;

The values ​​of profitability indicators are better (lower) the more reliable and stable the regional economy and social situation are. The leaders of stable rental business are London, Paris and Frankfurt, where the area of ​​change in profitability indicators is in the area of ​​5-6%;

Changes in indicators for Eastern European capitals are less dynamic; this can be explained both by smaller market volumes, fewer transactions, and, apparently, by less interest of Western experts and business circles in these markets; profitability indicators for Eastern European capitals are consistently 2-3 times higher than similar values ​​for Western capitals. And in the period after the August 1998 crisis, profitability indicators in Moscow were 4 or more times worse. And this happened not only due to a real drop in the value of real estate, but, rather, as a consequence of an expert assessment of the state of instability and increasing business risks in this region;

It is proposed to obtain additional analytical information using the calculated unit capitalized cost (UCC) indicator - as an estimate of the cost of some average unit of commercial area of ​​the leased property.

Such an assessment, along with a prompt response to fluctuations in rental rates, carries expert opinions on the success and risks of the business.

Initial information - rental statistics for European cities - can be found in Western publications (for example, in the monthly EuroProperty). As representative objects we will choose: Frankfurt, London and Paris - the centers of the most stable business, St. Petersburg, Prague and Warsaw - the centers of the transition economy with the most risky (in Europe) rental business indicators.

Office rental business.

The observation period 01.99-08.00 for Western capitals showed overall progress in the office rental business. We note the absolute stability of the profitability indicator for London (5.00-5.50%) and the improvement in profitability indicators for Frankfurt (from 5.75 to 4.90-5.50%) and Paris (from 6.25-6.75 to 5.50-6.00%). For Eastern European capitals, the same period is characterized by worsening indicators. Analysis of the calculated data of the UKS made it possible, in addition, to bring into line the external discrepancy in the logic of rental rates (their excess in St. Petersburg and Warsaw until mid-1999 over the rates in Paris and Frankfurt). As a result, low UCL indicators at high rental rates do not yet allow us to optimistically expect investment growth.

Rental trading business.

The observation period 05.99-08.00 for Western capitals is characterized by a general deterioration in indicators (which can be clearly seen using the UCS). This suggests that there may be quite long periods of market activity, after which the sale of acquired retail space will not bring any real income at all.

For Eastern European capitals, the observation period 05.99-08.00 is associated with the passage of a period of long-term stagnation and, possibly, the beginning of an exit from it (an improvement in the dynamics of indicators was noted, although the gap in the UCS indicators in comparison with Western capitals seems gigantic - almost an order of magnitude). Therefore, for now we should confine ourselves to the statement that there may be quite long periods in the retail space markets when investments in the acquisition of retail real estate in Eastern European capitals can bring a noticeable positive effect, including during periods of recession in Western markets. This can serve as a good argument when looking for ways to “interregional” diversify a real estate portfolio.

Conclusion.

The end of the period of formation of the real estate market is characterized by a transition from extensive to intensive development. It is obvious that in the near future there will not be such a rapid growth in the number of transactions on the market as in the first half of the 90s. Moreover, during a certain period in the housing market, only stabilization of the number of transactions is possible. It also seems quite possible to increase the price level, primarily in the secondary market. But at the same time, prices for luxury housing not only did not decrease, but also increased, which indicates the prospects for new construction of high-quality housing. Firm managers also note the intensification of competition in the market. Most of them are inclined to believe that if 1995 was characterized by a moderate degree of competition, then in 2001 it became high and will remain so.

The stabilization of the number of transactions and prices in the secondary housing market is a consequence, first of all, of macroeconomic factors, the main one being the persistence of low income levels among the bulk of the population. The initial rapid growth of demand in the market, as a consequence of the emergence of a layer of high-income people in the country, has now practically ended. And today, within this layer, a new differentiation is taking place - the separation of a layer with ultra-high incomes. Due to this differentiation, the demand for luxury housing has increased. However, in absolute terms, the potential of this layer is very limited. A serious expansion of demand is possible either through increasing income levels and the formation of a broad middle stratum capable of becoming the main supplier of buyers, or through active stimulation of demand, both by the state and by the professional participants in the real estate market themselves. At the same time, some increase in demand in the future is quite possible under the influence of the inevitable release of money into the economy in the coming months to resolve the non-payment crisis and in connection with the repayment of wage arrears and arrears on government orders. Some of this money will also come to the real estate market, but it obviously will not radically change the situation, although the number of applications for purchase under the influence of this factor will rise by several points.

It can also be assumed that due to the inevitable and significant increase in utility tariffs, it is quite possible that supply in the secondary housing market will increase.

Moreover, if the surge in supply on the secondary market in 1991-1993. was caused by a rapid rise in prices, now sellers will proceed not so much from the possibility of a very significant increase in income through the sale of housing, but from the need to reduce the costs of its maintenance, and hence – agree to lower prices. This, in turn, can also slightly increase demand, and therefore the turnover of real estate firms.

At the same time, this stabilization will not alleviate the general problem - the residential real estate market in the foreseeable future will experience a shortage of demand, which can significantly reduce income from the traditional activity of real estate firms in providing services for the purchase and sale of real estate.

In these conditions, it is necessary to significantly expand the range of services provided by the company to the client: bank payments, transport services, notary services, the possibility of carrying out repair work, providing installment payments, etc., increased attention to advertising, possibly reducing commissions. All these tools can play a significant role in attracting customers, but their capabilities are still limited. If for individual companies these techniques are able to provide the necessary volume of turnover, then, obviously, in general they will not solve the problem of developing the real estate business. This problem will be radically solved only by expanding demand in the market, and in modern conditions this is only possible through the active participation of the state by creating a mortgage lending system - creating federal and regional mortgage lending agencies, supporting the secondary mortgage market, providing government guarantees to banks when they issue mortgages. loans.

The consistent development of the real estate market in Russia naturally led to the next stage, characterized by a sudden increase in requirements for the quality of justification for investment decisions. Both abroad and in Russia, real estate market participants are coming to understand that the reliability of business plans, investment projects, etc., which are essentially a standard set of simple formulas, depends entirely on the validity of market research, the results of which are used in the formulas . In other words, the most significant and significant indicator of the viability of an investment project in the real estate market is the viability of the market research on the basis of which this decision is made.

Bibliography:

1. Balabanov I.T. “Real Estate Economics”, St. Petersburg 2000.

2. Goremykin V.A. Economics of real estate: Textbook. – 2nd ed., revised. And additional – M.: Publishing and bookselling center “Marketing”, 2002 3. Kupchin A.N., Novikov B.D. real estate market: state and development trends. - Tutorial. M.: 1995.

4. Maksimov S.N. “Fundamentals of entrepreneurial activity in the real estate market”, St. Petersburg. 2000.

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF PUBLIC SERVICE

UNDER THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

"NORTHWEST ACADEMY OF PUBLIC SERVICE"

in Kaluga

finance and credit

GRADUATE WORK

Kaluga

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for assessing the market value of real estate

1.1 Valuation of real estate: basic concepts and principles of valuation

1.2 Approaches and methods for assessing the value of real estate

1.3 Problems of property valuation

Chapter 2. Determining the market value of a property

2.1 Description of the subject of assessment

2.2 Determining the market value of real estate within the cost approach

2.3 Determination of the market value of real estate within the framework of the market approach

2.4 Determination of the market value of real estate within the framework of the income approach

3.1 Determination of the final value of the market value of the valuation object

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

Our country's transition to a market economy required the in-depth development of a number of new areas of science and practice, in particular, real estate valuation.

The real estate market is a sector of the national market economy, which is a set of real estate objects, economic entities operating in the market, market functioning processes, i.e. processes of production (creation), consumption (use) and exchange of real estate and market management, and mechanisms that ensure the functioning of the market (infrastructure and legal environment of the market).

Now the real estate market includes residential apartments and rooms, office buildings and premises, industrial and commercial buildings, cottages, dachas and rural houses with land plots. Regional characteristics of the real estate market should be taken into account.

In the production and economic practice of economic entities, many cases arise when it becomes necessary to assess the market value of enterprise property. Not a single transaction involving the purchase and sale of property, secured lending, insurance, resolution of property disputes, taxation, etc. is complete without an assessment of value.

Determining the market value of real estate is a complex and unique process, since it is almost impossible to find two absolutely identical properties. Even when buildings are built according to the same standard design, but located on different plots of land, their cost can vary significantly.

The relevance of the topic of the thesis is due to the fact that today there is an increasing need for a competent and objective assessment of the value of real estate, and the institution of property assessment has not yet been fully formed, there is no information base for assessment, and the professional training of appraisers in Russia has not yet reached the world level.

The purpose of the work is to determine the market value of the property and justify ways to increase it.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. Explore the theoretical basis for assessing the market value of real estate;

2. Characterize the object of assessment and its environment;

3. Justify the market value of the valuation object based on three generally accepted approaches;

The object of the study is the procedure for determining the market value of property.

The subject of the study is the justification of the market value of the property and the development of recommendations for increasing it.

Structurally, the work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a list of references. The first chapter discusses the theoretical foundations of real estate valuation, the second chapter calculates the market value of the property, and the third coordinates the assessment results and determines ways to increase the market value of real estate.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the dialectical method of cognition, as well as the works of scientists, periodical literature and Internet materials on the problem under study. In addition, the following methods were used: economic-statistical, monographic, calculation-constructive, as well as the comparison method.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for assessing the market value of real estate

1.1 Valuation of real estate: basic concepts and principles of valuation

Various goods (objects, things, property) are created, sold and acquired to satisfy certain needs of the state, legal entities and individuals, as well as to obtain benefits from their ownership and use. Its value, and therefore its cost, depends on the ability of a particular property to satisfy existing needs and on the benefits that the ownership of this property will bring in the future.

All operations and transactions with real estate require knowledge of the value of the property. In market conditions, the value of real estate depends on factors, trends and changes in the economy and society as a whole. The need for real estate valuation arises in the following cases:

§ purchase and sale or rental transactions;

§ corporatization of enterprises and redistribution of property shares;

§ attracting new shareholders and additional issue of shares;

§ cadastral valuation for taxation purposes of real estate: buildings and land plots;

§ insurance of real estate;

§ lending secured by real estate;

§ contribution of real estate as a contribution to the authorized capital of enterprises and organizations;

§ development of investment projects and attracting investors;

§ liquidation of real estate;

§ execution of inheritance rights, court verdict, resolution of property disputes;

§ other operations related to the implementation of property rights to real estate.

Immovable things (real estate, real estate) include land plots, subsoil plots, isolated water bodies, and everything that is firmly connected to the land, that is, objects whose movement without disproportionate damage to their purpose is impossible, including forests, perennial plantings, buildings, structures. Immovable property also includes aircraft and sea vessels, inland navigation vessels, and space objects subject to state registration. The law may classify other property as immovable property.

In real estate valuation, land is considered to have value, while improvements contribute to value.

Real estate is in free civil circulation and is the subject of various transactions, which creates the need to assess its value, i.e. in determining the monetary equivalent of various types of real estate at a specific point in time.

In today's economy, there are many different types of value. They are necessary due to various needs and functions. These include types such as borrowed value, insurance value, reasonable market value, book value, lease value, liquidation value, investment value and many others. However, in general, value can be divided into two categories: value in exchange and value in use.

Value in exchange is the price that would prevail in a free, open and competitive market based on the equilibrium established by the factors of supply and demand. It is sometimes called objective value because it is determined by real economic factors.

Value in use is the value of property for a specific user or group of users, i.e. the value of real estate that is used as part of an operating enterprise (for example, real estate used by a factory).

Of all types of value, market value is the most widespread - the main type of value in market conditions. When determining market value, we assume that the market existed in the past (properties have already been sold), exists in the present (property is created for sale) and will exist in the future, since neither the past nor the present of the market contradicts this.

Based on the above, we can conclude: not only the market itself, but also the instruments formed by the market, the most important of which is cost, have a three-component nature. From these positions we can say that the cost:

Indeed the cost, i.e. the most probable price in a given market;

Truly market, since the space of market values, which includes the cost of a specific object, is formed exclusively under the influence of factors of a free, open and competitive market;

It is truly objective, since it reflects the opinions of all the main market participants of the manufacturer (seller), buyer and investor, thereby exhausting the market interests of the parties.

Value can be extracted from the past by putting ourselves in the shoes of the buyer, from the present by putting ourselves in the shoes of the builder, and from the future if we put ourselves in the shoes of the investor. This leads to three main approaches to property valuation: market, cost and income approaches.

The main task in determining value is to predict the quantity, quality and duration of future benefits from owning the property being valued and recalculating these benefits into present value. Property is analyzed based on valuation principles.

The principles of assessment are divided into four groups:

1) principles based on user perceptions (principles of utility, substitution and expectation);

2) principles arising from the process of exploitation of real estate (principles of contribution, residual productivity, marginal productivity, balance, economic size and economic division);

3) principles determined by the action of the market environment (principles of alternativeness, variability, dependence, supply and demand, competition and compliance);

4) the principle of best and most effective use is the main principle of evaluation. This principle combines all other principles and is the foundation of any real estate valuation.

A prerequisite for real estate valuation is to take into account the specifics of the functioning of the real estate market, since the state of the real estate market has a significant impact on income streams, risk levels and the possible sale price of a real estate property at a certain point in the future, i.e. on the basic data used in valuation using income approach methods.

1.2 Approaches and methods for assessing the value of real estate

In real estate valuation, there are three generally accepted approaches to determining value: cost, market and income. Each approach has its own established methods, techniques and procedures. A conceptual similarity of approaches to the assessment of various property objects is revealed. At the same time, the type of object being valued determines the features of specific methods arising from specific valuation problems inherent, as a rule, only to this type of property.

Cost-based approach

The cost approach to the valuation of real estate is based on a comparison of the costs of creating a real estate object with the cost of the valued or comparable objects. The approach is based on studying the investor’s capabilities in purchasing real estate and is based on the principle of substitution, which states that the buyer, exercising due prudence, will not pay more for the property than what it would cost to obtain the appropriate building plot and construct an object of similar purpose and quality in the foreseeable period without significant delays.

The main stages of the assessment procedure in this approach:

1. Calculation of the cost of acquisition or long-term lease of free and available land for the purpose of its optimal use;

2. Estimation of the replacement cost of the appraised building. The calculation of replacement cost is based on the calculation of the costs of recreating the object in question, based on current prices and manufacturing conditions of similar objects on a certain date.

3. Determination of the amount of physical, functional and external wear and tear of the property;

4. Estimation of the amount of business profit (investor profit);

5. Calculation of the final value of the appraisal object by adjusting the replacement cost for wear and tear, followed by increasing the resulting value by the cost of the land plot.

The cost approach is most appropriate when assessing objects that have recently been put into operation; it leads to the most convincing results in the case of a sufficiently justified cost of the land plot and insignificant accumulated wear and tear of improvements. The cost approach is legitimate when estimating the cost of planned objects, special-purpose objects and other property, transactions for which are rarely concluded on the market, and can be used in valuation for insurance purposes. This approach when assessing objects subject to reconstruction makes it possible to determine whether construction costs will be compensated by an increase in operating income or proceeds from the sale of property. The use of a cost approach in this case avoids the risk of excess capital investment.

Also, the cost approach is used for the purposes of taxation of property of legal entities and individuals, when seizing real estate, to analyze the best and most efficient use of a plot of land.

Determining the value of a land plot

In accordance with Art. 35 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, when the ownership of a building, structure, structure located on someone else’s land plot is transferred to another person, he acquires the right to use the corresponding part of the land plot occupied by the building, structure, structure and necessary for their use, on the same conditions and in the same amount as the previous owner.

Of all the land valuation methods, the method of comparative sales analysis is of decisive importance.

The replacement cost of construction of the property being valued is calculated at current prices as new (without taking into account accumulated depreciation) and in relation to the valuation date. The basis for determining the replacement cost is the calculation of the costs associated with the construction of the facility and its delivery to the customer. Depending on the order of accounting for these costs in the cost of construction, it is customary to distinguish direct and indirect costs.

Direct costs are directly related to construction (cost of materials, wages of construction workers, cost of construction machinery and mechanisms, etc.). Indirect costs are costs not directly related to construction (fees to design and estimate organizations, cost of investments in land, marketing, insurance and advertising costs, etc.). The developer's profit reflects the costs of managing and organizing construction, general supervision and business risk associated with development. The entrepreneur's profit is determined as part of the profit from the sale of the object. Regardless of the amount of interest and the corresponding basis (component of the value of property), the amount of business profit remains constant.

The main source of comparative data on the cost of real estate is construction contracts for the construction of structures similar to the one being assessed. In addition, design appraisers typically maintain their own databases of current prices for manufactured homes, office buildings, apartments, hotels, retail buildings and industrial buildings. Currently in Russia there is a system of standards and price levels determined by the corresponding price indices.

Under the influence of various natural and functional factors, constructed objects lose their performance qualities and are destroyed. In addition, the market value of an object is influenced by external economic influences from the immediate environment and changes in the market environment. At the same time, a distinction is made between physical wear and tear (loss of operational qualities), functional aging (loss of technological conformity and value due to scientific and technological progress), external or economic wear and tear (changes in the attractiveness of an object in terms of changes in the external environment and the economic situation in the region). All together, these types of wear constitute accumulated wear, which will be the difference between the replacement cost of the object and the cost of reproduction (replacement) of the valued object.

The most complete and reliable source of information about the technical condition of a building or structure is materials from a natural survey. The first condition for conducting such surveys should be an accurate determination of the functional purpose of the object being assessed: use for its intended purpose or with a change in technological and functional parameters. In this case, it is necessary to present the limits of changes in loads and impacts on the load-bearing structures of buildings.

The second condition for conducting research is to obtain complete information about natural and climatic parameters and specific factors affecting the area where the object is located and their changes in the process of man-made activities.

Market approach

A necessary prerequisite for applying market approach methods is the availability of information on transactions with similar real estate objects (that are comparable in purpose, size and location) that occurred under comparable conditions (the time of the transaction and the conditions for financing the transaction).

The comparative approach is based on three basic principles of real estate valuation: supply and demand, substitution and contribution. Based on these principles of real estate valuation, the market-based approach uses a range of quantitative and qualitative methods to isolate comparators and measure adjustments to market data for comparable properties to model the value of the property being appraised.

The main principle in the market approach to real estate valuation is the principle of substitution, which states that a potential buyer will not pay a price for the property that exceeds the cost of acquiring a similar property, from his point of view.

The main difficulties in applying market approach methods are related to the opacity of the Russian real estate market. In most cases, the actual prices of real estate transactions are unknown. In this regard, when conducting an assessment, often the prices of offers for objects put up for sale are used.

The sales comparison method determines the market value of a property based on an analysis of recent sales of comparable properties that are similar in size and use to the subject property. This method of determining value assumes that the market will set a price for the property being valued in the same way as for comparable, competitive properties. In order to apply the sales comparison method, experts use a number of valuation principles, including the principle of substitution.

The application of the sales comparison method consists of sequentially performing the following steps:

1. detailed market research in order to obtain reliable information about all factors relevant to objects of comparable utility;

2. identifying appropriate units of comparison and conducting a comparative analysis for each unit;

3. comparison of the object being valued with selected objects of comparison in order to adjust their sales prices or exclude them from the list of those being compared;

4. bringing a number of adjusted indicators of the value of comparable objects to the market value of the property being assessed.

Real estate offices, government sources, own databases, publications, etc. can be used as sources of information about market real estate transactions.

After choosing a unit of comparison, it is necessary to determine the main indicators or elements of comparison, using which you can model the value of the property through the necessary adjustments to the purchase and sale prices of comparable real estate.

In valuation practice, when determining the value of real estate, the following main elements of comparison are identified: transferred rights to real estate, conditions of financial settlements when purchasing real estate, conditions of sale (purity of the transaction), time of sale, functional purpose of the object, location, convenience of access roads, area of ​​the object, technical condition and level of finishing of the premises.

This method is most effective for regularly sold objects.

Quantitative and qualitative techniques are used to identify elements for measuring adjustments.

Quantitative methods include:

· Paired sales analysis (two different sales are compared to determine the adjustment for one comparison item);

· statistical analysis (the method is based on the use of mathematical statistics to carry out correlation and regression analysis);

· analysis of the secondary market (this method determines the amount of adjustments based on data not directly related to the object of evaluation or the object of comparison) and others.

Qualitative methods include:

· classification (comparative) analysis (the method is similar to the analysis of paired sales, except that adjustments are expressed not in percentages or monetary amounts, but in fuzzy logic categories);

· distribution analysis (comparative sales are distributed in descending order of adequacy, then the place of the valuation object in the series of comparative sales is determined).

Income approach

Determining the market value of real estate using the income approach is based on the principle of expectation. In accordance with this principle, a typical investor, that is, the buyer of a property, purchases it in anticipation of receiving future income from use. Considering that there is a direct relationship between the size of the investment and the benefits from the commercial use of the investment object, the value of real estate is defined as the value of the rights to receive the income it generates, in other words, the value of the real estate object is defined as the current value of future income generated by the object of assessment.

The advantage of the income approach compared to the cost and market approaches is that it more closely reflects the investor's idea of ​​real estate as a source of income, that is, this quality of real estate is taken into account as the main pricing factor. The main disadvantage of the income approach is that, unlike the other two approaches, it is based on forecast data.

The main stages of the assessment procedure in this approach:

1. Drawing up a forecast of future income from renting out the estimated areas for the period of ownership and, based on the data obtained, determining the potential gross income (PVI), which is calculated according to formula 1.1:

PVD = S * Ca, (1.1)

S – area for rent, sq.m;

Sa – rental rate per 1 sq.m.

2. Determination, based on market analysis, of losses from underutilization of space and in the collection of rent, calculation of actual gross income (DVI). As a rule, the owner in the long term does not have the opportunity to constantly rent out 100% of the building's area. Rent losses occur due to under-occupancy of the property and non-payment of rent by unscrupulous tenants. The degree of vacancy of an income-producing property is characterized by an underutilization coefficient, determined by the ratio of the amount of unleased space to the amount of total area subject to rent.

Calculation of actual gross income (DVI) is carried out according to formula 1.2:

DVD = PVD * Kz * Ks, (1.2)

DVD actual gross income;

PVD potential gross income;

Kz space utilization factor;

Kc payment collection ratio.

It should be noted that to the DVD calculated in the above manner, it is necessary to add other income received from the operation of the facility in addition to rental payments (for example, for the use of additional services - car parking, etc.).

3. Calculation of the costs of operating the property being valued, which is based on an analysis of the actual costs of its maintenance and/or typical costs in a given market. Expenses can be conditionally fixed (property tax, insurance premiums, payments for land), conditionally variable (utilities, routine repairs, wages of maintenance personnel, etc.), replacement costs (costs for periodic replacement of wear-out structural components). building elements).

Thus, the estimated operating costs are subtracted from the DV, and the resulting figure is the net operating income (NOI).

4. Recalculation of net operating income into the current value of the object.

The direct capitalization method is a method for determining the market value of an income-generating object, based on the direct conversion of the most typical income of the first year into value by dividing it by the capitalization coefficient obtained based on the analysis of market data on the ratio of net income and the value of assets similar to the valued object, obtained by the market method extraction. This Western classic version of the direct capitalization method, in which the capitalization coefficient is extracted from market transactions, is practically impossible to apply in Russian conditions due to the difficulties encountered in collecting information (most often, the terms and prices of transactions are confidential information). Based on this, in practice it is necessary to use algebraic methods for constructing the capitalization ratio, which provide for a separate assessment of the rate of return on capital and the rate of return.

It should be noted that the direct capitalization method is applicable to the valuation of existing assets that do not require large capital investments in repairs or reconstruction at the valuation date.

1.3 Problems of property valuation

Difficulties are associated with a number of problems that arise when assessing property (approaches and methods), incorrectness or inconsistency of laws and regulations in this area. Let's look at these questions in a little more detail.

The first problem in terms of account, and not in purpose, is the choice of capitalization and discounting rates.

1. Loan cost (cost of capital) – for enterprises that do not have independent behavior (there is no securities market).

2. Average marginal cost of own finances – for enterprises whose shares are quoted on the market.

3. Based on the average production profitability of the enterprise or its own industry.

4. Average marginal marginal costs of the projects under study (for investment).

5. Loan reimbursement standards.

6. Planning norms.

7. Loan interest rate (a political economic concept associated with national income (NI) and domestic national product (GNP)).

8. Profitability of an alternative investment (for example, a deposit account in a bank).

9. Minimum risk-free return, from the investor’s point of view.

The real short-term interest rate, defined as the difference between the Treasury bill yield and the consumer price index.

The multitude of practical methods for choosing a rate with the same theoretical basis indicates that the methods and criteria for its selection are unsatisfactory. Determining the room rate is outside of financial management theory—in the realm of psychology (an art, not a science).

In order to make an assessment by different specialists, the value of the compound interest rate should be adopted by law and reflected in the methodology, as it was in its time, according to the standard coefficient of efficiency of capital investments (investments - as they say now). Initially, the efficiency standard was different for each industry, then one standard was adopted for all industries. It should be emphasized that the standard efficiency coefficient played the same role (carried the same load) as the capitalization rate (efficiency rate, comparison rate, investment placement rate).

The second problem relates to point estimates of property values. The situation is such that ten experts working independently of each other will give ten different estimates of the value of the same property (property). This is due to the calculation procedure and the choice of standard coefficients. The situation is reminiscent of manufacturing a part. On the same machine, different parts will be made by the same worker according to the same drawing. There are many reasons for this, most of which cannot be excluded in principle. Therefore, a system of tolerances on the dimensions of parts has been adopted in production. If the dimensions of the manufactured part are within the tolerance, then it is considered suitable. Deviations and dispersion of the initial data used for calculations in all approaches and methods, as a percentage of the average, are more significant than the tolerances on the dimensions of the parts.

The way out of this situation (the solution to this problem) is to replace the point estimate of property value with an interval one - on the one hand, and the numerical calculation should be carried out using probabilistic methods. The concept of estimation in mathematics implies an approximate calculation, most often at the level of the order of a number. For example, when calculating on a slide rule, it was necessary to determine the number of digits in an integer part of a number.

Another problem is related to the choice of weighting factors when reconciling property value calculations made using the three approaches. Each author (expert, appraiser) accepts weighting coefficients (significance coefficients of the calculation method) at his own discretion, and the difference between assessments can be significant. One way out of this situation is to adopt a weighting coefficient that is evenly distributed over a certain range for each evaluation method (approach).

The next problem arises during a comparative (market) assessment of the value of property, when it is necessary to introduce correction factors to bring the valued object and market analogues into a comparable form. There is also significant arbitrariness here. This is especially true for correction coefficients when comparing the territorial locations of property being assessed and a number of others.

One of the most difficult problems is the reliability of information. This applies to both market information about the asking and sold price of the assessed value of the property, and information on standards when calculating the value using the standard method in the cost approach. Previously, design and technological institutes of all sectors of the national economy had this information. Such information is either lost or outdated.

To eliminate most of the problems that arise in the process of assessing the value of property, all calculations should be performed on the basis of probability intervals. As a result of the calculation, the property value will be presented in the form of a truncated distribution. The median cost estimate should be recommended as the offer price of cost. In this case, the chances for the seller and the buyer are the same: the probability of the buyer buying below the offered price is equal to the probability of the seller selling above the offered price.

In this case, both the seller and the buyer have complete information about possible purchase and sale prices and their likelihood. Depending on the urgency of the proposed transaction, counterparties can make informed decisions: for the buyer to wait and look for another acquisition object, if time is of the essence; for the seller - a reduction in the asking price if there is urgency in the transaction.

There are many such options appearing on the market. For the seller and the buyer, the urgency of buying and selling may be different.

In 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted Resolution No. 519 of July 6, which charged the Ministry of Property Relations of the Russian Federation with the responsibility of “developing and approving methodological recommendations for valuation activities.” This must be done in relation to various objects of assessment, types of value of the object of assessment, conducting an assessment, as well as the examination of assessment reports. The work is carried out in agreement with the federal executive authorities that regulate the relevant field of activity.

However, the Ministry is not able to develop a methodology for all property objects (for all occasions), much less develop regulatory materials.

Therefore, at the regional level, depending on the existing property market, on the basis of a general industry methodology, develop regional methods for groups of homogeneous objects with the creation of the necessary regulatory framework. Then the task arises of coordinating and approving local methods at the level of the administration of the region, city or region.

The procedure for coordination and approval of regional methodological materials in relation to various property objects should be regulated by the Ministry of Property Relations of the Russian Federation.

This will help more reasonably evaluate all types of values ​​of various types of property, which will eliminate various misunderstandings, lead to comparability of calculation results by different appraisers and appraisal firms, and reduce the semi-criminal connotation in the field of appraisal activities.

Chapter 2. Determining the market value of a property

2.1 Description of the subject of assessment

Currently, there is a fairly stable demand for new real estate in the form of detached buildings, in the price range of $330-$3250 sq.m. In general, the offer ranges from $400 sq.m to $4500 sq.m. At the same time, there is a noticeable tendency towards a slight increase in the upper limit of the offer price.

This is explained by the fact that until recently insolvent demand becomes financially justified.

On the other hand, particularly prestigious office premises and retail space have now “found” their relatively permanent owners. Accordingly, prices for premises, although less prestigious, but still intended for sale, are rising. In addition, fluctuations in supply prices are not always justified from the point of view of economic logic.

The property is owned by Aris LLC and is located in the Leninsky district of Kaluga.

The facility includes a three-story brick administrative building with a restaurant with a total area of ​​1,375.8 sq.m.

The facility is located on one of the longest highways in the city, relatively close to the business and administrative center of Kaluga. Transport accessibility is good.

Description of the land plot

Shape of the plot rectangular;

Land area 556.0 m2

Soil condition The foundations of the building are based on sandy soils.

Topography of the area: the terrain of the area is calm.

Infrastructure provision:

The following communications are connected to the residential building:

· water supply;

· sewerage;

· power supply;

· heat supply;

· telephone installation

Possible use restrictions and easements

Permitted use. Experience in the real estate market shows that changing the functional purpose of real estate is possible only with the approval of the local administration, which is confirmed by the owner of the property being assessed.

Easements. It is assumed that the site is subject to typical easements, such as rights of way and utilities, but it is assumed that no existing easement shall interfere with the best and most efficient use of the site. The site does not include monuments, unique natural objects, power line supports, gate signs, etc., therefore there are no special restrictions for the construction of office and residential premises.

Description of the building

The building has 3 floors and is built in compliance with modern construction standards.

Table 1

Structural elements of the building

Structural element	Characteristic	Technical condition
Foundations	Concrete strip	Excellent
and their exterior decoration	Sand-lime brick red finishing brick, t=0.5	Excellent
Partitions	Brick	Excellent
Floors: Attics; Interfloor; Above-basement	Reinforced concrete Reinforced concrete Reinforced concrete	Excellent
Roof	Combined	Excellent
Floors	Parquet, tiles, linoleum	Excellent
Wooden	Wooden modernized	Excellent
Interior decoration	Euroclass	Excellent
Sanitary and electrical installations: heating · water pipes · sewerage · electric lighting · telephone · ventilation	Central, from the boiler room Drain into the city sewer Hidden wiring Natural	Excellent
Other works	blind areas	Excellent

2.2 Determining the market value of real estate within the cost approach

In this case, a three-story brick administrative building was chosen as an analogue object according to Sat. UPVS No. 33, table. 4 (Enlarged indicators of the replacement cost of construction of residential, public, communal buildings and consumer service buildings. M: 1972) table 52 as the most appropriate in terms of design characteristics to the object of assessment.

table 2

Comparative analysis of the object being assessed and the analogue object

(Determination of similarity coefficient)

Structural elements		Analogue object		Object of assessment	Degree of similarity (similarity coefficient)	Specific gravity, elements %
						analogue object	object of assessment
1		2		3	4	5	6
1. Foundations		reinforced concrete blocks		reinforced concrete blocks	1,00	5,0	5,0
2. Walls and partitions		brick		brick	1,00	24,0	24,0
3. Floors		reinforced concrete		reinforced concrete	1,00	9,0	9,0
4. Floors		concrete		concrete	1,00	10,0	10,0
5. Openings		simple wooden		simple wooden	1,00	11,0	11,0
6. Interior decoration		simple		-	0,00	8,0	0,0
7. Sanitary and electrical installations	· central heating · water pipes · sewerage · ventilation · electric/lighting		· central heating · water pipes · sewerage · ventilation · electric/lighting		1,00	12,7	12,7
8. Roof	roll on reinforced concrete slabs		─		0,00	6,0	0,0
9. Stairs and entrances	–		–		1,00	5,0	5,0
10. Simple work	–		–		1,00	9,3	9,3
TOTAL:					0,8	100	86
Correction factor	0,86

Determination of the full replacement cost of the appraisal object.

Basic input data:

· Capital group – I.;

· Construction volume: Vstr. = 4,444 m3;

· Total area: S=1.375.8 m2;

· Sources of normative data: SB UPVS No. 4, table 52

Basic calculation formula:

PVS = US1969 x Vstr. x I69-84 x I84-12/20/2007 x Kn, (3.1)

where PVS is the total replacement cost of the object, rub.

US1969 cost of construction per unit of construction volume in 1969 prices; US1969=24.9 r/m3

Vpage construction volume, cubic meters m;

I69-84 index of cost conversion from 1969 prices to 1984 prices; for residential and commercial buildings on average - 2.21;

I84-12/20/2007 - index of cost conversion from 1984 prices to prices on the valuation date (12/20/2007) according to Inf. Sat. on pricing and settlements for work performed in construction, Kaluga: December 2007;

K84-12/20/2007 = 61.07

Кn correction factor for the difference between the object-analogue of the assessment. Кn=0.86

Calculation of the full replacement cost of the object:

PVA = 24.9 x 4,444 x 2.21 x 61.07 x 0.86 = 12,843,755.88 rub.

Assessment of wear and tear (impairment) of an object

Based on the expected effective life of the object (capital capital group I), physical wear and tear (impairment) as of the valuation date will be 5%, i.e. RUB 642,187.80

Since the building is new, there is no functional (moral) wear and tear.

Economic (external) depreciation has not been established: buildings of this type and condition are currently in demand on the market, and there is no reason to assume that this situation will change in any significant way in the near future.

Determination of entrepreneur's profit

The entrepreneur's profit is the market-set level of income that the entrepreneur expects to receive as a premium for the use of his capital invested in construction.

The entrepreneur's profit (Ppr) can be determined from the ratio of entrepreneurial income Dpr and the cost of construction (S/b line) taking into account the construction period (Tstr.) using the formula:

According to Kaluga construction organizations, the cost of construction of 1 sq. m of individual office buildings of conventional construction averages 10,500 rubles. taking into account finishing. Conventional finishing of premises increases the cost of construction by 9-12%. Luxury finishes increase the cost of individual jobs by 1.38 times (Marshall & Swift Reference). The construction period currently usually does not exceed 2 years. The cost of investing in Kaluga in retail space located within the central part of the city lies in the range of $$ 1200÷3500 sq. m. m. For our calculations we will accept the value of 1200 US dollars, or 30936 rubles. Under these conditions, the entrepreneur's profit:

= 0.937, or 97.3%.

Table 3

Calculation of the final value of the value of the valuation object

Thus, the market value of the property obtained using the cost approach is 25,982,918.15 rubles, or rounded 25,982,918 rubles. (Twenty-five million nine hundred eighty-two thousand nine hundred eighteen rubles) excluding VAT.

2.3 Determination of the market value of real estate within the framework of the market approach

Table 4

Characteristics of comparison objects

Characteristics of comparison objects	Object of assessment	Object No. 1			Object No. 2		Object No. 3	Object No. 4
1	2	3			4		5	6
Address of the object	Kaluga, st. Suvorova, 29	Kaluga, Televiznaya str., 2a			Kaluga, st. Moskovskaya, 237		Kaluga, st. Azarovskaya, 26	Kaluga, Khrustalnaya,
Year of construction	2002	1995, reconstruction 1998			2003		1971, reconstruction 2002	1988
Total area (sq.m.)	1375,8	1157,1			297,3		2234,0	3806,0
Main purpose in current state	Office premises, cafes, recreation areas	Office rooms			Office premises, recreation areas		Office and exhibition premises	Office rooms
Initial appointment	Same	Administrative building			Administrative building		Book database	Administrative and production building
External enclosing structures	brick	brick			brick		brick-panel with foam block inserts	reinforced concrete panels
Location	above average	average			average		below the average	below the average
Land plot		122971 m2 (other buildings available)			under the building			under the building + ramp area
Finish quality	class "E"		class "U"	luxury class		luxury class		class "E"
Quality of parking and vehicles	Along the street, special organized, 20 m long; playground in the yard		Parking along the street (20 m); internal parking	Organized parking (special area)		Along the street, special organized 20 m long; internal parking		Limited internal parking
Sales period	––		December 2007	August 2007		February 2007		October 2006
Number of storeys	3 floors		2 floors	3 floors		2 floors		3 floors
Price 1 sq. m of total area, rub. rub.	–		33000	41500		28500		15500

Determination (justification) of adjustments

1. Adjustment for market conditions (date of sale)

In this case, the most correct method is to use the paired sales method. It involves identifying objects that differ only in the time of sale and determining the amount of adjustments. We did not find such objects, therefore the amount of adjustments was determined based on data on monthly inflation rates for the periods of interest to us using the formula:

where Mi is the average monthly inflation rate, Kinfl. = 1.0072

Calculation formula: Kinfl = Ksr.m.infl = const Ksr.m.infl = 1.0072

100 × Ktsrminfl 100

Table 5

2. Location.

The location of the compared objects was assessed on the basis of an expert assessment on a scale: “excellent”, “excellent”, “good”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “satisfactory”, “bad”, “very bad”. Thus, the scale consists of 8 gradations. Each gradation was worth 10%.

Table 6

	Object of assessment	Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3	Object No. 4
Location	above average	average	average	below the average	below the average
Amount of adjustments, %	-	+10	+10	+20	+20

3. Adjustment for physical difference.

The only significant difference between the comparison objects and the evaluation object is the material of the enclosing structures in comparison object No. 3 - reinforced concrete panels, while in the evaluation object and other comparison objects brick was used for these purposes. We estimate this difference at 6%

4. Adjustment for the condition of the object

The condition in which the object of sale is located has a direct impact on its price. The easiest way to take into account the difference in the “condition” factor is to adjust the sales price by the cost of repairs that need to be carried out so that the comparison object matches the condition of the property being assessed.

In this case, the condition of the object was assessed by experts in the following gradations: “excellent”, “good”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “satisfactory”, “bad”, very bad” with the price of one gradation – 6%.

Table 7

5. Adjustment for quality of finish

When assessing the quality of the finish, six levels of quality were considered:

· highest quality – luxury class;

· increased quality – class “U”;

· average quality – class “C”;

· satisfactory quality – class “E” (economical)

· low level quality – “N”;

· very bad – “O”.

Graduation price 5%

Table 8

6. Adjustment for the area of ​​the object.

In our case, we have an area range from 297.3 m2 to 3806.0 m2. According to our research, an increase in area by 1 m2 results in a reduction in the price of 1 m2 by the amount:

(Sob.av. Sob.ots) x K, (3.3)

where: Sob.av. area of ​​the comparison object;

Sob.ots area of ​​the assessment object;

K empirical coefficient, K = 0.00533

Calculation formula:

Table 9

7. Adjustment for the availability of land.

The presence of a land plot is regarded as an advantage, since it is one of the potentials of the property. Research shows that in most cases, the presence or absence of a land plot for office buildings is assessed by the market within 5% of the value of the property (in addition to the parking lot).

8. Adjustment for number of floors.

In our case, we consider objects with the number of floors from 2 to 5. Research shows that more than 3 floors are not considered an advantage. The current situation in the office space market is such that investors and tenants prefer to use buildings with 2–3 floors as office space. From the point of view of market value (value in exchange), and not investment value (in use), the cost of 1 sq.m. of buildings with more than 3 storeys is lower than the cost of 1 sq.m. 2÷3 storey buildings. Up to 5÷6 floors, such a cost reduction is within 3÷5%. For 9, 11-story buildings this value is 12÷15%.

9. Adjustment for the availability and quality of parking.

The presence of parking at a property is regarded as an increasing cost factor. In this case, the availability and quality of parking was assessed. The quality of parking was considered in three options:

· outdoor parking– along the street in front of the building facade there is a parking space within 50m; such parking was expertly assessed at 5% (average quality);

· organized parking – off the road there is a special asphalt area for parking cars - 10% (good quality);

· internal parking – parking for cars outside the enterprise gates (internal territory) – 0%, (bad).

Table 10

Final adjustments

Comparison elements	COMPARABLE SALES
	Object of assessment	Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3	Object No. 4
1	2	3	4	5	6
Sales price, rub./sq. m	––	33000	41500	28500	15500
Transferred Rights	Full ownership	Full ownership	Full ownership	Full ownership	Full ownership
Adjustment amount	―	0%	0%	0%	0%
Adjusted price	―	33000	41500	28500	15500
Financing terms	Market	Market	Market	Market	Market
Adjustment amount	―	0%	0%	0%	0%
Price after adjustment	―	33000	41500	28500	15500
Terms of sale	Commercial	Commercial	Commercial	Commercial	Commercial
Adjustment for terms of sale	―	0%	0%	0%	0%
Price after adjustment	―	33000	41500	28500	15500
Market conditions (date of sale)	―	December 2007		February 2007	October 2006
Adjustment for market conditions	―	0,0	+9,0	+13,0	+17,1
Price after adjustment	―	33000	45235	32205	18151

Conclusion: The smallest number of adjustments was made for comparison object No. 3, therefore the price of the valuation object is taken equal to the adjusted price of comparison object No. 3, i.e. RUB 32,205/sq.m. The found value lies in the price range from 18,151 rub./sq.m to 45,235 rub./sq.m. The value of the valuation object, obtained by direct comparison of sales, will be: 32205 × 1375.8 = 44,307,639 rubles.

Thus, the value of the subject property is 44,307,639 rubles. (Forty-four million three hundred seven thousand six hundred thirty-nine rubles) excluding VAT.

2.4 Determination of the market value of real estate within the framework of the income approach

The work used the direct capitalization method to assess the value of the property as ready for use. This method provides a fairly accurate estimate of the present value of future income in the case where the expected income stream is stable or has a constant rate of growth (decline).

Revenue Analysis

All income for the assessed property is projected on the basis of rent for premises for various functional purposes. We have conducted a market study, the purpose of which is to establish rental rates for residential premises that would be comparable to the property being assessed. This research included interviews with several owners, letting agents and developers, examining offer prices and the terms of existing leases.

During the preparatory work, it was found that, taking into account the location of the object and its profile, the following monthly rental cost should be taken for calculation: 1175 rub./sq.m.

Cost Analysis

Operating expenses are the ongoing costs associated with owning and operating a property. They are divided into constants - the value of which does not depend on the degree of occupancy of the building by users (property taxes, insurance premiums, land rent), and variable - depending on the degree of occupancy of the building (payment for electricity, water, etc.).

Property taxes include: land tax, building tax. Since the value of the land was not carried out as part of this assessment, the level of its taxation should not be determined.

Property tax is 2% of the book value of the property (Book value = Initial cost - Depreciation).

For a newly purchased object, the initial cost is equal to the purchase price. For a newly constructed or under construction building, the initial cost is equal to construction costs, depreciation is 0. The book value of the building at the valuation date is the sum of the acquisition price (or book value at the time of acquisition) of the building and the costs incurred for reconstruction, excluding VAT. We consider the value of property tax constant, because for a building of capital group 1, the depreciation rate is 1% per year, and changes in the value of property tax can be safely neglected.

Insurance payments amount to 0.3% of the replacement cost of the finished object, excluding VAT.

In this case, the amount of utility bills is taken at 7% of the actual gross income (DVI).

The inclusion of facility management costs in operating costs is due to the peculiarity of the property as a source of income. Owning real estate, unlike owning a cash deposit in a bank, requires certain efforts to manage the property. Regardless of whether the property is managed by the owner or by a third party, by including management costs in the total cost, we recognize that a portion of the gross rental income is generated not directly by the property, but by the efforts of the property manager.

For this type of facility, management costs are 2.2% of actual gross income.

Since the building was built in 2002 and major repairs are not required, the cost of current repairs is determined at 4% of the EVA.

Based on the available reliable data on the cost of replacing short-lived building elements that have similar characteristics to the object being assessed, a value of 3.6% of the EVD was accepted for calculation.

Other expenses typically amount to 2% of operating expenses.

Determining the overall capitalization rate

The capitalization ratio reflects the dependence of the value of an object on the expected income from its operation. Due to the lack of sufficient data on sales of similar objects, the capitalization rate can only be determined by the summation method, according to which the value of the capitalization rate is equal to the sum:

SK = NPb/r + R + L ± Sv.k., where

SC – capitalization rate;

NPb/r risk-free rate of return;

P – risk premium corresponding to the investment in this asset;

L – premium for low liquidity of the object;

St.k. capital return rate.

The risk-free rate on time deposits in foreign currency in banks of the highest category is 5-9% (we accept 7%).

Risk premium (R). The probability of property loss was assessed based on information on the number of cases of property loss in the city of Kaluga, taking into account the collected data P = 4%.

The premium for additional risk is 4%.

The liquidity ratio is determined by the approximate time of sale of real estate of this type, which we estimate, taking into account the current economic situation, at 0.4 years.

Kn/liq. = Kbezrisk. × time of sale = 0.07 × 0.4 = 0.028 or 2.8%

The investment management risk premium is assumed to be 4.8%.

The second component of the overall capitalization ratio - the capital recovery rate or increase/decrease in the value of the fund - is calculated as the ratio of one to the number of years required to return the invested capital.

The time required to return capital according to the calculations of a typical investor is 20 years, based on this the capital recovery rate will be 5% (1/20).

Currently, the market conditions for non-residential premises in Kaluga are such that for relatively new properties with insignificant natural wear and tear (depreciation), there is no reason to assume a decrease in their value in the foreseeable future. In addition, the cost increase is greatly influenced by the favorable location of the property near the city center and main transport routes. In this case, the investment attractiveness of the valuation object is obvious, so the return on capital rate is taken with a (–) sign.

The overall capitalization ratio is:

R0 = 0.07 + 0.04 + 0.028 + 0.048 – 0.05 = 0.186

Calculation of the value of the appraisal object using the method of direct capitalization of rental income

To calculate the potential gross income (PVI), the available monthly rental rates are used per year: 14,100 rub./sq.m.

Thus, the income tax from renting out the areas of the property being assessed will be: 14,100 × 1,375.8 = 19,398,780 rubles;

The calculation of effective gross income (EGI) is made taking into account possible losses from underloading of rent payments and losses in the collection of rent. For calculations, the value taken is 8%, determined on the basis of available data from external sources and our own observations.

The calculations showed that the EVD of the valuation object is:

19,398,780 × 0.92 = 17,846,877.6 rubles.

Table 11

Determining the market value of the valuation object using the method of direct capitalization of income

Effective Gross Income (EGI)	17846877.60 rub.
Operating expenses,	RUB 3,045,391.19
incl.
building tax	RUR 291,494.44
· insurance payments	RUB 53,897.45
· communal payments	RUB 1,249,281.43
· facility management	RUB 392,631.31
· current repairs (4% of EVD)	713875.10 rub.
· other expenses (2% of OR)	RUB 47,115.76
· reserve for replacement (3.6% of EVD)	RUB 642,487.59
Net operating income (NOI) before taxes	14801486.41 rub.
Net operating income (NOI) including income tax	11249129.67 rub.
Overall capitalization ratio (R0)	0,19
The value of the building being assessed is	60479191.77 rub.

Thus, the market value of the property obtained using the income approach is 60,479,191.77 rubles, or rounded 60,479,192 rubles. (Sixty million four hundred seventy nine thousand one hundred ninety two rubles) excluding VAT.

Chapter 3. Recommendations for managing the cost of an object

3.1 Determination of the final value of the market value of the valuation object

Applying various approaches to property valuation, we came to the following results:

Table 12

Approaches (methods)	Weight coefficient	Cost, rub.
Cost approach (comparative unit method)	0,35	25982918
Market approach (direct sales comparison method)	0,25	44307639
Income approach (direct income capitalization method)	0,4	60479192
Total cost	1,00	44362607,85

The cost-based weighting approach is mainly used to evaluate objects that are unique in their type and purpose, or objects with little wear and tear. The appraised building belongs to the category of real estate with a low level of wear and tear, therefore the share of the market value obtained within the cost approach will have a fairly high coefficient of 0.35.

The data underlying the market approach cannot be considered absolutely reliable, and therefore the results of the market approach to assessing the value of a given object must be treated with caution. Based on this, the result of the market approach is given a weighting factor of 0.25.

Return value reflects the market behavior of a typical investor, so the result of this approach is assigned a maximum weighting factor of 0.40.

Thus, in our opinion, the following distribution of coefficients is most objective:

· cost approach – 0.35;

· market approach – 0.25;

· income approach – 0.40.

Taking into account weighting coefficients, the market value of the subject property as of December 20, 2007. is approximately 44,362,608 rubles. (Forty-four million three hundred sixty-two thousand six hundred eight rubles) excluding VAT.

The value of a company's real estate is determined by its discounted future cash flows, and new value is created only when companies earn a return on invested capital that exceeds the cost of raising capital. Cost management further deepens these concepts, since in such a management system the entire mechanism for making major strategic and operational decisions is built on them. Properly established value management means that all the company's aspirations, analytical methods and management techniques are aimed at one common goal: to help the company maximize its real estate value by basing the management decision-making process on key value drivers.

Cost management is fundamentally different from the planning systems adopted in the 60s. It has ceased to be a function exclusively of the management apparatus and is designed to improve decision-making at all levels of the organization. It inherently assumes that the top-down command-and-control style of decision-making does not produce the desired results, especially in large multi-industry corporations. This means that lower-level managers need to learn to use cost indicators to make better decisions. Value management requires managing the balance sheet as well as the income statement and maintaining a reasonable balance between long-term and short-term business goals. If value management is implemented and managed properly, the corporation reaps enormous benefits. Such management is essentially a continuous reorganization aimed at achieving maximum value.

For the property being assessed, cost management comes down to more efficient use of available space.

The assessed building has an attic with a total area of ​​328.2 m2, which is currently partially used as a storage area for office supplies. On the one hand, carrying out appropriate reconstruction will make this premises residential. On the other hand, recently, due to the expansion of cooperation between Kaluga enterprises and out-of-town and foreign companies, the demand for hotel services has increased significantly. In this regard, it is proposed to carry out a comprehensive reconstruction of the attic space to transform it into a residential attic, where it is planned to organize a hotel of 14 luxury double rooms.

The cost of measures for the reconstruction of the attic is presented in Table 13.

Table 13

Cost estimate for attic reconstruction

№	Name of works	Cost, rub.
1	Civil works (dismantling)	406.211
2	Civil works (new)	2.448.728
3	Cold and hot water supply	49.818
4	Heating	90.144
5	Sewage and plumbing equipment	31.738
6	Supply and exhaust ventilation and air conditioning	67.534
7	Electric power equipment and electric lighting	422.402
8	Communication device	37.010
9	Security and fire alarm	114.531
10	Automatic heating, ventilation	7.638
11	Room amenities	872.640
Total		4.548.394

To finance these works, it is proposed to use a loan on the following terms:

· Loan amount – 5,250,000 rubles.

· Interest rate – 14% per year;

· Loan term – 1 year;

· Providing the property being valued;

· Terms of loan repayment – ​​quarterly payment of interest and principal in equal installments, i.e. at 1,866,506 rubles. at the end of each quarter.

As already noted, the hotel will consist of 14 double luxury rooms. The cost of living in such a room in Kaluga hotels ranges from 1,400 rubles. up to 2500 rub. per day. For calculations, the value of 1,600 rubles is taken, since the property being assessed is located close to the city center, but initially this building was not intended for the hotel business, which creates certain inconvenience for clients.

The investment horizon is set for 1 year, since there are no objective reasons to believe that the property being assessed will not be sold after this period.

Cash flow is presented in table. 14.

Table 14

Cash flow in rubles.

Expense item	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	Total for the year
Reconstruction	4548394	–	–	–	4548394
Loan servicing	1866506	1866506	1866506	1866506	7466025
Operating expenses	124539	127030	129571	132162	513302
Income tax	-	292073	291463	290841	874377
Total	6539439	2285609	2287540	2289509	13402098
Income item	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	Total for the year
Hotel business	–	1344000	1344000	1344000	4032000
Depreciation	1299145	1302393	1305649	1308913	5216100
Credit	5250000	–	–	–	5250000
Total	6549145	2646393	2649649	2652913	14498100
Balance	9706	360784	362109	363404	1096002

The main source of income is the hotel business. At the same time, it is important to emphasize that with excess demand for this type of service, no objective reasons for the low occupancy of rooms have been identified.

To determine how much the current market value of the property being valued will increase as a result of the recommended measures, it is advisable to use the capitalization ratio used within the income approach. This is due to the fact that this project is an investment project, i.e. primarily focused on generating income.

Consequently, the increase in the current market value of the subject property will be:

1,096,002 / 0.19 = 5,768,432 (rub.)

(Five million seven hundred sixty-eight thousand four hundred thirty-two rubles) excluding VAT.

Conclusion

As follows from the provisions of the standards, “all methods, procedures and techniques for measuring market value, if based on market indicators and properly applied, lead to the same expression of market value.” Moreover, “any method based on market information is inherently comparative.” Thus, according to existing standards, only the quality of information and the correct application of procedures can serve as restrictions on the use of a particular method.

The first chapter of the work examines the concept of real estate, types of real estate values, basic approaches, methods of real estate valuation, as well as problems associated with justifying the value of real estate.

Real estate is physical objects with a fixed location in space and everything that is inseparably connected with them both below and above the surface of the earth or everything that is a service item, as well as the rights, interests and benefits arising from the ownership of objects.

A real estate property is understood, firstly, as an enterprise as a whole as a property complex, and secondly, as a land plot, an integral part of which may be: a building (structure) or a group of buildings; isolated water bodies, perennial plantings; engineering structures and networks; stationary structures landscaping the site; elements of economic, transport and engineering support; other objects.

Real estate assessment is carried out from the perspective of three approaches: profitable, costly and comparative. Each approach allows you to emphasize certain characteristics of the object.

Each of the three approaches considered involves the use of its inherent methods when assessing:

Method of direct capitalization of income;

Sales comparison method;

Comparative unit method.

Thus, real estate objects may change their purpose if the efficiency of their use decreases. This occurs both as a result of deterioration of buildings and other improvements, and as a result of trends in the real estate market.

The second chapter evaluates the property using three valuation approaches.

Each of the methods used has advantages and disadvantages.

The comparative approach provides a direct assessment of market value, based on statistics on the real commercial real estate market. When processing data, special measures have been taken to protect the lender from overestimation. Therefore, the comparative approach is given the greatest weight.

The cost approach makes it possible to best take into account the design features and physical condition of the property being assessed. At the same time, the information base is not perfect. The main problems relate to the assessment of land values. In addition, when calculating replacement cost, one has to rely on average conversion indices to current prices, which can lead to errors.

The income approach is based on market data and does not have some of the disadvantages of the cost approach. The main source of error in the method is the uncertainty associated with the use of forecast data on income and growth rates.

In the third chapter of the work, the results of assessing the market value of the property were coordinated, its final value was substantiated, and recommendations were given for increasing it.

Calculations showed that the market value of the subject property as of December 20, 2007. is approximately 44,362,608 rubles. (Forty-four million three hundred sixty-two thousand six hundred eight rubles) excluding VAT.

However, the proposed value management measures make it possible to increase the current market value by 5,768,432 rubles. (Five million seven hundred sixty-eight thousand four hundred thirty-two rubles) excluding VAT.

Bibliography

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Clause 1 Article 30 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation.

Economics of real estate / Ed. A. B. Krutik, M. A. Gorenburgov. - M.: Lan, 2001., p. 48-49

FEDERAL EDUCATION AGENCY

GOU VPO "MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY OF SERVICE"

Faculty: "Institute of Regional Economics and Municipal Management"

Department: “State and municipal management”

Course project.

Topic: Improving real estate valuation methods.

Discipline: Municipal real estate management.

Completed by a student

Groups GRDS 3-2

Shevchuk M. V.

Accepted by the teacher

Dubovik M.V.

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….3

I Theoretical part

1.1 Classification of real estate……………………………..5

1.2 Methodology for assessing residential real estate…………………..6

1.3 Housing market………………………………………………………………………………9

1.4 Real estate securities market……………………………..13

1.5 Mortgage……………………………………………………………..15

II Analytical part

2.1 Modern principles of real estate market analysis……………18

2.2 Real estate market research………………………………...20

2.3 Methods for assessing the market value of real estate……………...26

2.4 Features of various types of assessment……………………………...34

2.5 Influence of environmental factors on cost……………...36

III Practical part

3.1 Practical application of the comparative sales method………..39

3.2 Investment risks and real estate market statistics……………44

Conclusion……………………………………………………………...47

References……………………………………………………….50

Introduction.

The term “real estate” has appeared in Russian legislation since the time of Peter I. However, the current legislative acts have not yet made a clear distinction between movable and immovable property.

Immovable things (real estate, real estate) include land plots, subsoil plots, isolated water bodies and everything that is firmly connected to the land, that is, objects whose movement without disproportionate damage to their purpose is impossible, including forests, perennial plantings, buildings , buildings. Immovable property also includes aircraft and sea vessels, inland navigation vessels, and space objects subject to state registration. The law may classify other property as immovable property. For example, an enterprise as a whole as a property complex is also recognized as real estate.

In accordance with part one of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, an enterprise is considered not as a subject, but directly as an object of civil rights.

An enterprise as a whole or part of it may be the object of purchase and sale, pledge, lease and other transactions related to the establishment, change and termination of property rights. The enterprise can also be inherited.

The composition of an enterprise as a property complex includes all types of property intended for its activities, including land plots, buildings, structures, equipment, inventory, raw materials, products, rights of claim, debts, as well as rights to designations that individualize the enterprise, its products, and work and services (trade name, trademarks, service marks), and other exclusive rights, unless otherwise provided by law or contract.

The state body carrying out state registration of real estate is obliged to provide information about the registration it has carried out and the registered rights to real estate to any person. This rule will certainly significantly reduce the risk of improper transactions with real estate for participants in civil transactions.

Various forms of ownership: private, ownership of joint-stock enterprises, local, municipal and, finally, federal. It is very difficult to determine the effectiveness of one form or another - it all depends on specific situations.

In general, the residential market is much more developed than other segments. And this is understandable. There is already a defined legislative framework regulating the processes of privatization of housing, obtaining land for the construction of cottages, etc.

The market for non-residential premises is represented mainly by previously purchased or reconstructed premises converted into offices. But during privatization, more and more objects appear that are leased for long-term or sold at auction by property funds, i.e. local authorities. At the second stage of privatization, the real estate market will be replenished with industrial facilities and, to an even greater extent, trade and service facilities.

After the introduction of private ownership of real estate and privatization in the Russian Federation, the state ceased to be the sole owner of the overwhelming number of real estate properties, which marked the beginning of the formation of the real estate market.

I Theoretical part

1.1 Classification of real estate objects.

Real estate valuation is of interest, first of all, for categories of objects that are actively traded on the market as an independent product. Currently in Russia it is:

· apartments and rooms

· premises and buildings for offices and shops

· suburban residential buildings with land plots (cottages and dachas)

· vacant land plots intended for development or other purposes (in the near future)

· warehouse and production facilities.

In addition, real estate, as a rule, is part of the property complex of enterprises and organizations (in particular, those being privatized) and significantly affects their value. There are other categories of real estate whose market has not yet formed.

The assessment of an object is influenced by various conditions and their combinations. We give an example of classification criteria.

1. Origin

· Natural (natural) objects.

· Artificial objects (buildings).

2. Purpose

· Vacant land plots (for development or other purposes)

· Natural complexes (deposits) for their exploitation.

· The buildings

For housing.

For the office.

For trade and paid services.

For industry.

· Others.

3. Scale

· Land masses.

· Separate land plots.

· Complexes of buildings and structures.

· Apartment building.

· Single-apartment residential building (mansion, cottage)

· Section (entrance).

· Floor in section.

· Apartment.

· Room.

· Summer cottage.

· Complex of administrative buildings.

· Building.

· Rooms or parts of buildings (sections, floors).

4. Ready to use

· Ready-made objects.

· Requiring reconstruction or major repairs.

· Requiring completion of construction.

1.2 Methodology for assessing residential real estate.

Practical experience indicates that for small residential real estate it is advisable to conduct assessments using a simplified procedure, which can only be based on the method of comparing market sales. The sales comparison approach to estimating value is based on a direct comparison of the property being valued with other properties that have been sold or listed for sale. Buyers often base their judgments of value primarily on the properties offered for sale. Appraisers also use this information along with information about properties sold or leased. This approach is based on the principle of substitution, which states that when several goods or services of similar suitability are available, the one with the lowest price is in greatest demand and has the widest distribution. In relation to housing, this means: if it can be noticed on the market (which usually happens), then its value is usually set at the level of the cost of purchasing housing of equal attractiveness, which will not take much time to replace.

Mass real estate valuation is a special approach to a simplified valuation of a large group of homogeneous objects (apartments). Such an assessment is made according to a certain methodology: for the object being assessed, the corresponding set of values ​​of a fixed set of its parameters is determined, and then the value of its assessment is formed according to rules that are unchanged for all objects.

Mass assessment has its own special areas of application. An example of such an assessment is the assessment of apartments “according to a certificate from the Bureau of Technical Inventory (BTI)” based on the cost approach. It is performed by a government agency and is used to determine taxes and fees. However, the BTI assessment is not based on market value. Therefore, market information is not required to build it.

It is worth emphasizing the difference between the concepts of actual selling price and market value. Prices are divided into seller price, buyer price and selling price.

The seller's price is the amount he receives as a result of the transaction. The buyer's price is the total amount of all costs for purchasing an apartment. The selling price is the amount of money that the buyer gives to the seller for the apartment.

They differ in the amount of payment for the services of intermediaries and the costs of processing the transaction. Both the buyer of the apartment and the seller may or may not have an intermediary. The transaction may or may not be insured. The costs of completing a transaction can be distributed in different ways among its participants. Therefore, the selling price characterizes the apartment as such, and the prices of the buyer and seller strongly depend on the terms of the transaction. As a rule, if the seller has an intermediary, then his payment is deducted from the selling price and reduces the seller's price, and conversely, the buyer's payment for the services of his intermediary increases the buyer's price in relation to the selling price. Similarly, these prices are affected by transaction processing fees. Thus, the seller and buyer prices can vary significantly (up to 15% or more). But the selling price minimally depends on the specific features of the sales mechanism and transaction execution and is determined by the specifics of the apartment itself. Therefore, it is advisable to model the dependence of the sales price on many parameters of the apartment.

In accordance with its definition, the market value of a property depends on those factors that determine the average or more likely price of its sale in the market under normal transaction conditions.

At the first level of classification, they can be divided into objective and subjective factors.

When determining market value, objective factors are considered. As for subjective factors, they are associated with the behavior of a particular buyer, seller or intermediary when concluding a transaction, in part not directly determined by its economic conditions (temperament, awareness, honesty, patience, gullibility, personal likes and dislikes, etc.).

Objective factors are mainly economic ones that ultimately determine the average price level of specific transactions.

Economic factors can be divided into macroeconomic and microeconomic. The first include factors related to the general market conditions: the initial level of supply of demand for real estate in the region; volumes and structure of new construction and reconstruction; migration factors; legal and economic terms of transactions; level and dynamics of inflation; dollar exchange rate and its dynamics. In our conditions, the group of economic factors may also include the following long-term factors:

· differences in the dynamics of prices for goods and services, as well as wage conditions, affecting the scale of accumulation of funds and the amount of pent-up demand;

· the pace and scale of the formation of a new social stratum that has the opportunity to invest in real estate;

· development of the mortgage system;

· development of a system of foreign representative offices in the region.

Microeconomic factors characterize the objective parameters of specific transactions. Of these, those that describe the object of the transaction (apartment) are especially important. Factors related to the nature of the transaction and payment terms are also significant. The basic procedures for processing transactions and paying for them have been worked out. Therefore, when assessing the market value of apartments on a mass scale, one can and should focus on the typical (average) nature of the transaction, consider this factor constant and not take it into account when assessing the market value of apartments. Then the market value (average price) of the apartment, estimated at a fixed date, is determined by its parameters (characteristics) as use value.

1.3 Housing market.

The potential scale of this market is enormous. At least 90 percent of housing in every, as they say, civilized country today is bought in installments.

The housing market in Russia acquired a particularly large scale as a result of the privatization of apartments. Free, as in Moscow, or preferential, as in other cities, transfer of apartments into private ownership has created new opportunities for owners to operate with this type of real estate.

At the same time, forms of purchase and sale of apartments and other types of housing have also developed. Among these forms, purchasing apartments in installments is becoming increasingly common. It should be noted that in the West, almost all real estate owned by the population is burdened with debts and the need to pay the cost of housing in installments. In Russia, as a result of privatization, every citizen became the owner of real estate assets (apartments, garden and dacha land plots) not burdened with debts. Therefore, Russian citizens find themselves in a much better position in this regard than citizens of other countries.

At the same time, all this will be complemented by newly opened opportunities for purchasing housing on credit. Briefly, the scheme here is as follows.

The apartment itself serves as the material security for the loan. Until the loan is repaid, the buyer is legally only its tenant. The buyer immediately makes a down payment - about 30 percent; the remaining 70 are paid by the bank, with which the corresponding agreement was concluded with the real estate company.

The bank or its subsidiary collects documents, processes the purchase and sale transaction, makes payments to the seller, etc. Therefore, the amount of commission, for example, in Moscow reaches 13 percent of the market price of an apartment. These costs are justified if the transaction is completed with the participation of reliable organizations, since the housing market has acquired some criminal overtones in recent months.

A large number of criminal situations arise due to the presence of “left” dollars in almost every transaction, transferred from hand to hand after the completion of the official registration procedure.

“Left” dollars are, as a rule, the difference between the market price of the apartment and the amount at which it was valued by the BTI. Therefore, you don’t have to be an expert to understand: to eliminate the “leftists” you have to choose one of two paths: either the conservative path - to bring the assessment practice of BTI closer to the real conditions of the market; or a radical way is to abandon this practice and switch to other forms of control over the asking price of real estate.

Constantly increasing ratios bring BTI estimates closer to market prices by leaps and bounds.

All possible taxes have already been deducted from the income with which a citizen once bought an apartment (or other property that can later be sold). Therefore, from any point of view, the sale of property cannot be considered a fact of receiving additional income; it is only a change in the form of property owned by a citizen. And levying tax on the amount of such a change is a secondary tax on the same income.

The market redistribution of apartments made it possible to improve the use of the housing stock, stimulated the resettlement of some communal apartments, and made it possible to partially solve the housing problem.

In general, the housing problem not only persists, but also intensifies. This is facilitated by the constant influx of refugees and forced emigrants from neighboring countries into Russia.

Use of apartments for non-residential purposes.

After the privatization of a significant share of the residential sector in cities, the problem of using owned apartments for purposes other than their intended purpose has worsened.

Of course, the use of residential premises owned by citizens and legal entities for non-residential purposes - to accommodate offices, offices, workshops, computer centers, etc. - does not at all contribute to solving the housing problem, since a significant part of the living space is withdrawn from the citywide fund. However, ways to combat this limit the freedom of the owner and are often illegal.

Even if the housing inspection or the police are able to establish the fact of misuse of the apartment and, having formalized it accordingly, present it to the court, then the judges have no legal grounds to satisfy such a claim. In accordance with Art. 6 of the Law “On the Fundamentals of Federal Housing Policy,” the owner of real estate in the housing sector has the right, in the manner established by law, to own, use and dispose of it, including renting, leasing, mortgaging, in whole and in parts, etc. d., if this does not violate existing norms, housing and other rights and freedoms of other citizens, as well as public interests. Among the responsibilities of the owner when using residential premises, established by Art. 4 of the same law, there is no such obligation as using residential premises for their intended purpose. True, Art. 7 of the Housing Code of the RSFSR, which establishes that residential buildings and residential premises are intended for permanent residence of citizens.

But at best, taking into account this article on the basis of Art. 48 of the Civil Code of the RSFSR, only a residential lease agreement can be declared invalid as it does not comply with the requirements of the law. But it is not possible to terminate, based on this, the agreement on the transfer of ownership of housing, since not a single legislative act (and this should only be a law, and not an order of the mayor or a government resolution) contains such a legal basis.

The lack of a clear regulatory framework leads to the fact that even judicial authorities are sometimes unable to figure out who has rights to a particular object and on what grounds. However, the stable demand for offices, retail and warehouse space, as well as the high cost of such property, which guarantees considerable commissions, attract a large number of intermediary structures. If in 2000 only 42 percent of respondents were involved in transactions with non-residential premises, then by now this figure has increased to 70 percent.

1.4 Real estate securities market.

The real estate market segment is the most underdeveloped. This reflects both the lag of the entire stock market and the insufficient involvement of real estate itself in the commercial turnover. Real estate market participants still prefer direct investment. The range of securities associated with the use and sale of real estate is also narrow.

First of all, the indisputable advantage of housing bonds is their accumulative nature. They make it possible to gradually accumulate the required amount to purchase an apartment, serving as proof of the right to the square footage of housing indicated in the nominal value.

The fractional nature of the bonds' nominal value in relation to the footage of real apartments allows you to stop at any time at the level of living space and comfort that will be considered sufficient or extremely possible. Although it should be recognized that this positive property of housing bonds is somewhat limited by the fact that they provide the right to purchase only newly commissioned housing. A rather limited standard of construction and the specifics of new development areas can significantly narrow the circle of those willing to purchase bonds to solve their housing problems, and this is precisely their main value. If it were possible to purchase municipal housing with the help of bonds in any area of ​​the city, of any level of comfort and “age,” then their attractiveness would increase significantly. This could ensure an increase in the competitiveness of housing bonds in relation to other, considered quite reliable means of payment (currency).

Another undoubted advantage of housing bonds is their anti-inflationary nature: the ability to protect money to one degree or another from depreciation. Therefore, monthly housing bond price quotes should at least track the rate of inflation. Meanwhile, the monthly quotation mechanism provided for by the projected form of emission is capable of absorbing only general macroeconomic fluctuations, which are significant on a time scale, but not current changes in the housing market.

The possibility of changing quotes depending on the timing of obtaining housing when repaying bonds, say, within the range of 1 to 6 months, could significantly increase both the attractiveness of this stock market instrument and the degree of its liquidity.

Property valuation. Market valuation methods help to manage real estate as profitably as possible, this new resource that businesses and citizens have at their disposal. This assessment becomes necessary even when the owners of land and real estate want to pledge them to obtain a loan. Without proper assessment, expect to attract additional investments, including foreign ones.

At the first stage of privatization, when creating joint ventures, such assessments were either not made at all, or were simply done by eye. The investor himself determined the price. When it concerned serious objects, Western appraisal firms were involved, which in most cases carried out appraisals in favor of foreign investors, underestimating the real market value of our assets.

Evaluation is also necessary for the secondary issue of shares of privatized enterprises seeking to increase their authorized capital by an amount supported by real material resources. It is the actual prospectus that will allow investors to avoid mistakes when setting stock prices. Valuation is also necessary when dividing property, determining the best commercial use of land and real estate, and in all other transactions related to real estate.

Analysis of the prospects for increasing the value of real estate and its commercial use should be based on strict economic calculations, an accurate and professional assessment of the actual market value of the property. An assessment is an opinion based on knowledge, experience, the use of strictly defined approaches, principles and methods, as well as procedural and ethical standards, of a specialist or group of experts, usually professional appraisers, about the value of a real estate property.

Market value means the most likely price that would result from the sale of a property in a competitive and open market if all the conditions necessary for a fair transaction are met.

These conditions are:

1. The buyer and seller act on the basis of typical, standard motives. The transaction is not forced on either party.

2. Both parties have full information to make decisions and act in pursuit of the best satisfaction of their interests.

3. The object has been exposed on the open market for a sufficient time, and the optimal moment has been chosen to complete the transaction.

4. Payment is made in cash or financial terms comparable to cash payment have been agreed upon.

5. The transaction price reflects customary terms and conditions and does not contain any discounts, concessions or special credits to any party in connection with the transaction.

6. The item is in general demand and has market recognized utility.

7. The object is quite scarce, in other words, there is a limited supply, creating a competitive market.

8. The object is endowed with the properties of alienability and is capable of being transferred from hand to hand.

1.5 Mortgage.

Mortgage means issuing a loan secured by real estate. The classic mortgage object is a land plot. A mortgage opens up the opportunity to provide buildings, structures, residential buildings, and individual apartments as collateral.

Mortgage loans, as a rule, are inexpensive, the margins of mortgage banks are small, and profits are “gained” due to large volumes of loans placed. These banks also attract funds at low interest rates, but due to their very high reliability, the mortgage bonds they place are in steady demand.

There are four entities operating in the mortgage loan market:

1. a borrower seeking to purchase possibly the best real estate;

2. a bank that seeks to obtain the maximum possible profit by limiting mortgage risk;

3. an investor who seeks to obtain maximum profit by investing in mortgages;

4. the government, which must create legal and economic conditions for the functioning of the mortgage lending system.

Mortgage lending mechanisms must ensure the availability of credit for the borrower, as well as the profitability of lending.

There are several types of credit mechanisms that allow, to a greater or lesser extent, to bypass the fairly high level of inflation that exists in the country.

The first mechanism is fixed rate lending.

The second mechanism is based on loans with a rate adjusted to the price level in the country, when the lending rate is periodically (approximately once a quarter) revised depending on changes in the price level.

The third mechanism - lending with adjustable deferred payments - was developed by one of the US economic institutes specifically for use in Russian conditions. Its essence is that the borrower must pay no more than 30 percent of income on the principal debt or loan. The initial payout amount is relatively low and increases over time. This allows you to postpone the payment of the principal portion of the debt to a later date. The principle of this mechanism is that two interest rates are calculated, one of which is called “contract” and is used to calculate the amount of debt, and the second is “payment”, to calculate monthly payments. These rates are not equal.

The Law of the Russian Federation “On Pledge” establishes a general principle regarding the registration of a mortgage. It must be registered with the same government agency that is responsible for registering rights to the mortgaged property. From this principle follows the assumption that mortgages on residential premises should be registered by housing privatization departments.

“Mortgage” agreements regarding buildings and structures located on land must be registered in the “land list” of the territory in which the property is located, which can also currently be interpreted as registration by local land committees, although at the time the law came into force it may have meant local councils.

The mechanism for the sale of pledged property is established by the legislator as general for both real estate and movable property.

By virtue of Art. 350 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the sale (sale) of pledged property, which is foreclosed in accordance with the law, is carried out by sale at public auction in the manner established by procedural legislation, unless a different procedure is established by law.

The requirement to sell the pledged property through a public auction is imperative, and if you follow the concept of the rules on pledge, then it is impossible to circumvent it. But if the pledgee still wants to purchase the property that is the subject of the pledge without a public auction procedure and is supported by the pledgor, then this can be done in accordance with Art. 409 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. The article allows the conclusion of a compensation agreement between the parties, where the creditor states that the debtor’s obligations have been terminated, and the latter, in return for fulfilling his obligation, provides compensation, that is, in our case, the mortgagor transfers real estate to the mortgagee.

II Analytical part

2.1 Modern principles of real estate market analysis.

The success of business in a market economy is largely determined by the quality of information on the basis of which responsible financial decisions are made. That is why the collection and analytical processing of information, including market information, today is both a subject of separate study from a scientific and methodological point of view, and the subject of an independent business.

The most significant illustration of the above is the example of information support for doing business on the stock market. Scientific theories and schools that have been repeatedly awarded Nobel Prizes have been created and continue to be improved; many works on technical and fundamental analysis have been written, which have become reference books for stock market specialists. The worldwide practice of in-depth testing of analysts' knowledge in order to allow them to work with securities market information is considered normal. And this despite the fact that in the stock market, in comparison with other markets, the patterns of a perfect market in terms of the awareness of participants should be most clearly identified.

The real estate market, unlike the stock market, is far from perfect in many respects, which determines the features of its research. On the one hand, analysts are faced with difficulties, and sometimes the impossibility, of correct and unambiguous formalization of economic relationships in the real estate market. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is no prospect of transferring analysis technologies used in other markets to the real estate market in their pure form, since these technologies are adapted for use in a different market environment. In view of the above, high-quality analytical work in the real estate market seems to be a highly complex subject, requiring from the analyst, in addition to deep theoretical knowledge of real estate economics, constant practice and creative search in research that forms professional intuition.

Studying the almost century-long history of the functioning of real estate markets in developed countries, we can come to the conclusion that insufficient attention paid to the quality of analytical work is one of the main reasons for most major crises in real estate markets. A typical example is the crisis in the US real estate market in the late 80s and early 90s. As experts note, excessive and disorderly investment in new construction has led to oversaturation of the market and, accordingly, lack of market demand for a large number of projects for which loans were issued. At the heart of the current situation were unrealistic market expectations stemming from the wrong incentive structure in the analysis, weak analysis methodology and incomplete data characterizing the current conditions. The structure of incentives that guided developers, appraisers and credit organizations was distorted by the interest of some to receive loans, others to justify obtaining a loan, and still others to place their funds. At the same time, all parties solved their problems through unreasonably optimistic expectations.

The use of weak analytical methodology, reflected in inadequate assumptions and procedures, in combination with insufficient quality local market data, as a rule, resulted in the emergence of unsubstantiated market research and, accordingly, investment decisions based on it. As a result of the crisis, credit institutions have developed a persistent syndrome of distrust towards any projects in general and market research in particular. And this, in turn, led to the understanding that real estate market analysts in their work should be guided by some general principles that are necessary (but not sufficient) to obtain accurate conclusions and results. On the other hand, there has been an urgent need for clear and easily identifiable criteria that determine whether market research meets the category of validity.

Considering the prospects for the development of the real estate market in Russia, we can assume that the absence of potential crises is an overly optimistic scenario. However, the consequences of such crises may be less significant if today, at the stage of active market development, some general principles and

requirements for analytical research on the basis of which investment decisions will be made.

Not only the threat of crises, but also current everyday problems - increasing competition, decreasing opportunities for short-term excess profits, the start of long-term and capital-intensive commercial real estate development projects, the entry of foreign investors into the market with high demands for substantiating decisions, etc. - objectively indicate that the importance of qualitative analysis in the Russian real estate markets will in the near future become increasingly important.

2.2 Research of the real estate market for the purpose of substantiating investment decisions.

The ultimate goal of any study of this type is to measure the relationship between supply and demand for a specific type of product in the real estate market at a specific (usually future) point in time.

The special characteristics of real estate as a product, along with the special place of real estate in a market economy, form a fairly wide range of socio-economic information necessary for positioning this product in the market. Current and retrospective macroeconomic characteristics of the national and regional economy, socio-demographic indicators of regional and local markets, parameters of regional and local real estate markets - these are just the general areas in which research needs to be conducted.

Principle 1: Only information that can actually determine the future productivity of the investee should be selected for analysis.

When following this principle, the main difficulty for the analyst is the lack of standard rules or unambiguous recommendations according to which the initial information should be generated. This is where the analyst must show all his knowledge, professional intuition, creativity and practical experience. Moreover, this is where the foundation for the validity of the study as a whole is laid.

Principle 2: All current and future data on which the study is based must be used in quantifying the performance of the real estate investment project under consideration.

However, even carefully selected information that is directly related to the subject of assessment is, figuratively speaking, a “pile of bricks” from which the analyst must build, according to all the rules of the art of construction, a solid foundation for analytical research. And here you cannot do without a durable solution that connects the individual elements into a single monolith.

Principle 3: All individual pieces of information selected to support an investment decision must be linked together by a clear logical framework, culminating in a prediction of future market conditions and the corresponding productivity of the project under consideration. The description of the logical circuit must be presented explicitly.

A customer’s positive perception of a report with the results of a market research, in which there is no logical diagram, can only be if:

a) the analyst takes advantage of the customer’s ignorance or

b) the customer is initially favorable towards the results.

On the other hand, constructing a convincing and obvious logical diagram is a demonstration of the highest professional skill of the analyst.

Continuing our discussion of the need to build a logical research framework, let’s consider another principle that specifies the content of market analysis.

Principle 4. The content of market analysis should be limited to a discussion of the factors that make up the basic relationships for determining the performance of a commercial real estate property.

In accordance with this principle, the analyst, during the study, must formulate the basic relationships that determine the performance of a commercial object, and then identify a hierarchy of parameters-arguments, the functions of which are the factors included in the main expression for productivity.

Let us illustrate the practical approach to implementing this principle using the following simplified example.

Let the criterion for the performance of the project under consideration be net operating income (NOI) in a specific period of the future. Then, by definition, the basic expression for determining performance will be as follows:

NOI=PGI-V&L+M-FE-VE, where

PGI - potential gross income,
V&L - losses from underload and non-payments.
M I - other income.
FE - fixed operating expenses,
VE - variable operating expenses.

Let's consider the procedure for identifying parameters that determine the expected values ​​of the main factors.

Potential gross income is determined by the rental rate, which in turn is a function of the current rental rate, as well as trends in the relationship between market supply and demand over time.

The projected occupancy of a real estate property is a function of the cumulative market capacity, demand parameters, market absorption rate and growth of the real estate absorption area. For projects, the projected load determines two indicators - the level of load and the timeline of market absorption to this level.

The growth of the real estate absorption area is determined either by the growth in the number of jobs (employment level) or by population growth. In turn, an increase in the absorption area leads to the need for new real estate.

It should be noted that employment growth and population growth in one case may be directly related, for example, with the opening of new jobs and the influx of new able-bodied people. In another case, population growth can increase without an increase in employment, for example, due to an increase in incoming pensioners or an increase in the birth rate. Qualitative analysis involves the use of several sources of information that provide historical trends and forecasts of habitat growth, followed by comparison of data. Segmentation of area growth, for example, by age groups, gender, family size, etc., is also mandatory. The absence of the listed items in the study should be attributed to the inappropriate selection of data for use in the analysis.

Demand parameters are determined by such specific indicators as area (office or production) per workplace, purchasing expenses per capita, number of apartments or houses per capita, etc. Using demand parameters, the amount of required real estate is calculated, which corresponds to the growth of the real estate consumption area. For example, applying average purchasing costs to population growth, an increase in retail sales is predicted, and, accordingly, the need for additional retail space. When analyzing the housing market, population growth segmented by age, income, family size or composition is converted into segmented demand. A sound analysis of demand parameters involves studying historical trends, the current state and forecasting their likely value in the future. Moreover, a valid analysis measures changes in demand not only due to new habitat growth, but also due to changes in existing population and employment patterns. For example, during economic upturns, growing companies require larger spaces, and changing demographics towards more people of retirement age will require the appropriate type of housing.

Signs of inconsistency in the analysis of demand parameters include, first of all, taking into account constant values, which, as a rule, are characteristic of the moment of analysis, as well as ignoring changes in existing population and employment structures.

The absorption rate, also called the market penetration rate, is determined by the share of total market demand that the project in question is expected to absorb when competing with other projects. After the analyst has assessed the total volume of the increase in potential demand, it is necessary to determine the critical parameter for the project - the share of total demand that the project in question is likely to qualify for.

Theoretically, absorption coefficient is a complex function of many factors. To a first approximation, it can be defined as the ratio of the area of ​​the object being evaluated to the total area (including the area of ​​the object) of the competitive offer at the time of its launch on the market. This approach, at a minimum, should be present in every market research that claims to be valid.

It should be noted that when determining the absorption coefficient, the most important conditions are the detailed segmentation of demand and competitive supply. At the same time, one should not lose sight of the duration of competing projects started in implementation, the volume and duration of projects being prepared for implementation. The first sign of a poor study here is the use of any “average” data.

Losses due to generally accepted market discounts and incentives for tenants are also a factor that should not be overlooked when forecasting potential gross income.

Other income, although usually a small component of income, must still be projected taking into account the likely preferences of potential consumers in light of their ideas about lifestyle, level of service and per capita expenses to achieve this level, etc. .d.

Fixed and variable costs are traditionally considered more certain when forecasting. However, this formulation of the question for Russian conditions is only partially correct. For example, real estate taxes (today these are property taxes, land taxes) and land rent, due to unsettled legislation, can present unexpected “surprises” to a potential investor in the future. Therefore, a sound market research should include variant forecasting of these positions.

A similar situation is observed with most variable expenses. Analysis of the utility services market, most of which are provided by natural monopolies, and unstable tariff policy require quantitative justification of the indicators taken into account. In this case, it is important to use market information on resource consumption, obtained on the basis of readings from control and measuring equipment. In the absence of market analogues for resource consumption, it is preferable to calculate them according to standards rather than use invoices issued by utility suppliers.

2.3 Methods for assessing the market value of real estate.

There are three main methods for assessing the market value of real estate:

1. comparison method

2. cost method

3. method of capitalization of income.

The main valuation method is the comparative sales analysis (SSA) method. This method is applicable when there is a market for land and real estate, there are real sales, when it is the market that forms prices, and the task of appraisers is to analyze this market, compare similar sales and thus obtain the value of the property being valued. The method is based on comparing an object offered for sale with market analogues. It finds greatest use in the West (90 percent of cases). However, this work requires an already formed land and real estate market.

The sales comparison method is used if there is a sufficient amount of reliable market information on purchase and sale transactions of objects similar to the one being valued. In this case, the criterion for selecting comparison objects is similar best and most effective use.

The SAP method can also be called the direct comparative sales analysis approach, the comparative sales method, or the market information method.

The sequence of application of the SAP method is as follows:

1. Recent sales of comparable properties in the relevant market are highlighted. Sources of information are: the appraiser’s own file, the Internet, an electronic database, real estate firms, real estate brokers’ files, archives of credit institutions (mortgage banks), insurance companies, construction and investment companies, territorial departments for insolvency and bankruptcy, territorial departments of the State Property Committee, etc. .

An important point when using the SAP method is the coordination of the results of comparison of the property being valued. Arithmetic averaging of the received data is not allowed. The accepted procedure is to examine each result and make a judgment as to the extent to which it is comparable to the property being valued. The smaller the number and magnitude of amendments made, the more weight this sale has in the final approval process.

Measurements traditionally established in the local market are taken as units of comparison. To evaluate the same object, several units of comparison can be used simultaneously.

Elements of comparison include the characteristics of real estate objects and transactions that cause changes in real estate prices. Elements subject to mandatory accounting include:

· composition of transferred property rights;

· terms of financing the purchase and sale transaction;

· terms of sale;

· time of sale;

· location;

· physical characteristics;

· economic characteristics;

· nature of use;

· cost components not related to real estate.

2. Verification of information about transactions: confirmation of the transaction by one of the main participants (buyer or seller) or an agent of a real estate company; identifying the terms of sale.

If there is a sufficient amount of reliable market information, it is permissible to use methods of mathematical statistics to determine the value by comparing sales.

3. Adjustment of the cost of comparable objects.

Adjustment can be made in three main forms: in monetary terms, percentage, general grouping.

Adjustments to the sales prices of comparable properties are made in the following order:

· first of all, adjustments are made related to the terms of the transaction and the state of the market, which are carried out by applying each subsequent adjustment to the previous result;

· secondly, adjustments are made that relate directly to the property, which are made by applying these adjustments to the result obtained after adjusting for market conditions, in any order.

To determine the magnitude of adjustments, depending on the availability and reliability of market information, quantitative and qualitative methods are used. Justification for the adjustments taken into account is mandatory. The final decision on the value of the result determined by the sales comparison method is made on the basis of an analysis of the adjusted sales prices of comparison objects that have the greatest similarity to the object of evaluation.

The cost estimation method is practically not applicable to land. It can be used only in exceptional cases of assessing land inextricably from the improvements made on it. Land is considered to be permanent and not consumable, and the cost method is used to value man-made objects. When assessed by this method, the value of land is added to the cost of improvements (buildings, structures), and land is assessed separately by other methods.

The cost-based method of real estate valuation is implemented in the following sequence:

· determination of the cost of a plot of land;

· determination of the replacement or replacement cost of buildings and structures;

· determination of the amount of accumulated wear and tear of buildings and structures;

· determination of the market value of real estate using the cost method, as the sum of the cost of a plot of land and the replacement or replacement cost of buildings and structures minus accumulated depreciation.

The choice of the calculation method adopted for determining the cost of new construction of improvements must be appropriately justified. The use of replacement cost is advisable in cases where it is difficult to determine the cost of constructing an exact replica of a building due to outdated types of building structures and construction methods used to create the property being assessed.

Costs corresponding to replacement or replacement cost for the purposes of real estate valuation are calculated as the sum of direct costs, indirect costs and entrepreneur's profit.

Direct costs include the following expenses directly related to construction:

· cost of materials, products and equipment;

· wages of construction workers;

· cost of construction machinery and mechanisms;

· the cost of temporary buildings and structures, safety measures, transportation and storage costs and other costs legally accepted in the local market;

· Contractor's profit and overhead costs.

Indirect costs include expenses associated with the construction of a building, but not included in the cost of construction and installation work.

· cost of design, technical supervision, geodetic control;

· payment for consultations, legal, accounting and auditing services;

· cost of construction financing;

· administrative and other expenses of the developer.

The amount of indirect costs is determined taking into account the prevailing market tariffs for work and services for these items.

The entrepreneur's profit is an established market norm that stimulates the entrepreneur to invest in a construction project. The amount of profit is determined by the method of expert assessments based on market information.

The use of the cost method is necessary when analyzing new construction; reconstruction of buildings; assessment for tax purposes; to identify excess income when assessing real estate; when assessing for insurance purposes; assessing the consequences of natural disasters; assessment of special buildings and structures.

In the context of the transition to market conditions, the cost method is decisive in the assessment, since the application of other methods requires extensive market information, which is not available due to the undeveloped market. However, you should always remember that construction costs are only the basis of the market value and most often are either more or less than it.

For example, the market value of an elite hotel located in a bad location (on the outskirts of the city) will be less than the value determined by the cost method. In turn, the market value of a gas station complex at a certain stage may be greater than construction costs.

In the conditions of the emerging market, when there is a reorientation of production to new technologies, it may seem that the property has no value at all. For example, if an enterprise produces products that no one needs and its production areas cannot be reconstructed for new production, then the market value of such real estate tends to zero. The use of a costly method will in this case lead to the wrong orientation of potential buyers.

Currently in Russia, this point is often taken into account when incorrectly assessing fixed assets of enterprises, since their revaluation is carried out mainly using the cost method and the appraiser should remember that the book value of fixed assets of enterprises does not correspond to their market value.

The next valuation method, which is applicable specifically for Russia, is the valuation method based on an analysis of the most effective use of real estate, and this analysis is associated with determining the type of use that will bring the owner the maximum income, i.e. income capitalization method.

The income capitalization method when assessing the market value of real estate is implemented in the following sequence:

· forecasting future income;

· capitalization of future income.

Future income generated by a property is divided into two types: income from operating activities as a result of commercial leases and income from reversion.

Operating income is projected by preparing a reconstructed (hypothetical) income statement. Income from reversion is projected:

· direct assignment of the absolute value of reversal;

· the purpose of the relative change in the value of real estate during the period of ownership;

· using the terminal capitalization ratio.

Capitalization of future income into present value can be done:

· direct capitalization method;

· capitalization method based on the rate of return.

The initial premise of the direct capitalization method is the constancy and infinity of the capitalized income. In the direct capitalization method, the present value of a future income stream is defined as the ratio of the annual income attributable to the property or interest to the capitalization rate for that property or interest.

To calculate the value of full ownership, the overall capitalization ratio is determined based on market data. Depending on the availability of initial information, the following are applied:

· analysis of comparative sales;

· calculation using the debt coverage ratio;

· investment group technology.

The initial premise of the rate of return capitalization method is the limited period of income. In the rate of return capitalization method, the conversion of a finite number of future cash flows into present value is performed at a specific value of the rate of return corresponding to the risk of investment in a given type of real estate.

When calculating present value without taking into account financing conditions, the rate of return capitalization method is formalized either in the form of discounted cash flow analysis or in the form of capitalization calculation models.

The discount rate used in discounted cash flow analysis, which takes into account both systematic and unsystematic risks, is determined by:

By the method of isolation from market data on sales of similar objects;

Using the method of alternative investments in the financial market;

Method of monitoring the real estate market.

Recently, the demand for the services of appraisers and their professional training in Russia has begun to grow rapidly. This is also due to recent events in the financial sector, when attempts to create a lending mechanism through credit insurance failed: banks lost a lot on fake insurance. In the case of real estate, which is taken by the bank as collateral when issuing a loan, losses are almost impossible. Thus, real estate and capital markets become inextricable components of the economy as a whole.

Naturally, there was great interest on the part of banks in such operations. And they all need a qualified real estate appraisal that provides insurance based on the real value of real estate.

Assessment is also necessary within the framework of regional tax policy. Throughout the world, the basis of the local taxation system is the property tax; about 70 percent of the local budget is formed from this tax. Of course, with the development of the market itself, with the emergence of real values, it is possible to transition to a taxation system that would stimulate the development of the real estate market and at the same time ensure the replenishment of

local budgets. This explains the unconditional interest in the assessment shown by local administrations.

The cost of professional appraisal services varies greatly depending on the types of objects being appraised, the complexity of the work and, of course, which specialists are involved in the appraisal. Typically, the cost of services is measured either in hours multiplied by the hourly rate, or depends on the size of the object, but is never tied to its cost.

2.4 Features of various types of assessment.

Valuation for the purpose of buying or selling and classification of real estate.

When valuing real estate that is to be bought or sold on the open market, market value or sales value is used as the basis of valuation for all classes and categories of real estate. At the same time, for specialized real estate, in most cases, the determining method for calculating value will be the cost method, based on market data.

When appraising real estate for sale within a limited period of time, when the property is placed on the open market for sale within a period substantially less than the adequate marketing period for the type of property, the limited sales value is used as the valuation basis for all classes and categories of real estate.

To select an appropriate valuation basis, the purpose of the valuation work and the characteristics of the property being valued are decisive.

In general, the classification of the main purposes for which real estate is assessed is as follows:

1. Valuation for purchase or sale;

2. Valuation for sale for a limited period of time;

3. Valuation of land and buildings for their use as secured loan obligations;

4. Valuation for the preparation of accounting and financial statements;

5. Evaluation for inclusion in prospectuses of Funds, stock exchanges;

6. Assessment to resolve issues during mergers and acquisitions of a company;

7. Valuation for pension funds, insurance companies, real estate trust funds.

In practice, there may be other assessment purposes, and their formulations and, accordingly, possible assessment bases must be agreed upon by the client and the appraiser.

After clarifying the purpose of the assessment, it is necessary to establish what class and category the property being assessed belongs to.

For valuation purposes, there are two classes of property:

· Specialized

· Non-specialized

Specialized property is one that, due to its specialized nature, is rarely, if ever, sold on the open market to continue its existing use by a single owner, unless it is sold as part of the business using it.

Examples of specialized properties are:

1. Museums, libraries and other similar premises that belong to the public sector;

2. Hospitals, specialty health care facilities, and recreational centers that do not have competitive market demand from other entities wishing to operate these types of properties in the area;

3. Schools, colleges, universities and research institutes for which there is no competitive market demand from other organizations;

4. Standard properties in special geographical areas and in places remote from the main centers of business located there for the purpose of production or business.

Non-specialized property is all types of property other than that which falls under the definition of specialized property. In other words, it is one for which there is general demand, with or without consideration for possible modernization, and which is generally bought, sold or leased on the open market in order to be used for existing or similar purposes, either as a vacant property for a single ownership, or (whether occupied or free) as an investment or for development.

When assessing real estate occupied by the owner for use in the activities of an enterprise (business), the following is used as the assessment basis:

· market value under existing use - for non-specialized real estate, including real estate valued on the basis of its commercial potential.

· residual replacement cost - for specialized real estate.

Non-specialized and specialized property, in turn, is classified into categories depending on the purpose of ownership. A similar classification principle is used for evaluation purposes as well as for other purposes.

2.5 Influence of environmental factors on cost.

Environmental factors, both adverse and favorable, are included in the range of factors typically considered when making assessments. Certain factors affect a particular type of property and will directly impact the appraiser's calculations, where they must be taken into account in relation to market data obtained for comparable and unaffected properties. In other cases, all properties in a region will be affected by these factors.

Relevant environmental and pollution factors generally include the following categories:

· natural factors such as radon or methane, air pollution or noise;

· technogenic factors of pollution as a result of industrial activities in the past or present on this land, or as a result of ingress from neighboring areas;

· pollution factors in the form of electromagnetic and other fields;

· pollution factors when using recycled materials.

All classes of real estate are susceptible to the effects on value of environmental factors, but properties offered for sale or as collateral for loans are particularly sensitive to these factors.

The scope of work on real estate assessment does not include work on environmental audit of real estate. In cases where the appraiser has reason to believe that environmental factors may significantly affect the value, he must inform the client of the need to engage a professional environmental expert.

The valuer must inform the environmental expert of the context of his study, including the current and potential future uses of the site, which will be expressed in terms of value determined on the basis of the highest and best use. In general, the environmental expert should answer the following questions:

· whether the source of contamination or hazard can be eliminated successfully and economically;

· if the contamination or hazard cannot be completely eliminated, can it be isolated or covered to make the property suitable for that use for a specified, even limited, period;

· whether it is possible to mitigate the effects of pollution or hazard in any way;

· what is the most effective means of pollution control and regulation;

In cases where it is possible to eliminate the source or eliminate the consequences of pollution, the assessment can be made taking into account the corresponding estimated costs of such elimination or elimination.

III Practical part.

3.1 Practical application of the comparative sales method.

At the end of 2000, cottage construction began in the Podolsk region. Low-rise residential complexes are rows of semi-detached cottages that have common walls with similar neighboring houses. The word “condominium,” which denotes a property created and developed through the efforts of like-minded neighbors, is not very popular. Therefore, to designate dwellings that are exotic for us, built on the principle of “common walls and a roof – your own yard,” the English word “town house” has taken root in Russian everyday life.

Still, for example, the market value of a cottage using the comparative sales method.

The total area is 120 sq.m., the cottage has 6 rooms, 3 bedrooms, a bathroom, a shower room, and a finished basement. There is no garage as of the valuation date. Plot area – 1000 sq.m.

For the analysis, we will use data on five sales of comparable properties in the same area.

Table No. 1.

		Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3		Object No. 4	Object No. 5
Selling price	65000		78000	56000		70000	54000
Ownership	complete		complete	complete		complete	complete
Conditions fi- funding	non-market, overpriced by 3000		non-market, overpriced by 8000	market		market	market
Terms of sale	market		market	market		market	market
Market conditions (time)	2 weeks		6 weeks		1 year	1 year	1 year
House area	120 sq.m.		145 sq.m.		120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.
Land area	10000 sq.m		12000 sq.m		10000 sq.m	12000 sq.m	10000 sq.m
Number of rooms	6		7		6	7	6
Number of bedrooms	3		3		3	3	3
Bath	1		1		1	1	1
Shower	1		1		1	1	1
Basement	not finished		not finished		not finished	not finished	finished
Garage	There is		There is		There is	There is	No

As can be seen from the source data, the comparison objects differ from the one being evaluated in terms of financing, time of sale and physical characteristics.

The amount of adjustment for financing conditions is determined by comparing the sales price of objects with market and non-market financing. In this case, loan payments are discounted at the market interest rate. In our example, the adjustment values ​​are defined as 3000 for object No. 1 and 8000 for object No. 2.

Since all comparable properties have market conditions of sale, no adjustment for sales conditions is required.

To adjust for market conditions (time of sale), it is necessary to select objects that differ only in this element. In our case, object No. 1 and No. 3 differ only in terms of financing and time of sale. By adjusting the selling price

object No. 1 on the terms of financing, you can determine the adjustment at the time of sale:

(62000 – 56000) / 156000 = 0.1.I.e. Over the course of a year, prices on the market will increase by 10%.

Thus, all comparable objects are brought into the same conditions regarding financing and time of sale, which creates a single basis for making adjustments for other elements of comparison.

In a number of comparison objects, differences in size are represented by different numbers of rooms and different areas of the house and plot. Moreover, a plot of 12,000 sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​145 sq.m. with 7 rooms, and a plot of 10,000 sq.m. corresponds to a house with an area of ​​120 sq.m. with 6 rooms. Hence, the adjustment for size from the comparison of objects No. 1 and No. 2 has the following form:

70000 – 62000 = 8000.

The adjustment for the presence of a garage is derived from a comparison of objects No. 3 and No. 5:

61600 – 59400 = 2200.

The adjustment for the finished basement is determined from a comparison of objects No. 2 and No. 4:

77000 – 70000 = 7000.

The results of the adjustments made are shown in Table No. 2

Table No. 2.

	Object No. 1	Object No. 2	Object No. 3	Object No. 4	Object No. 5
Selling price	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Transfer of ownership rights validity	complete	complete	complete	complete	complete
Correction of legal regulations	65000	78000	56000	70000	54000
Financing terms	not market	not market	not market	not market	market
Adjustment for financing conditions.	- 3000	- 8000	0	0	0
Adjusted price	62000	70000	56000	70000	54000
Terms of a transaction	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial	commercial
Adjustment based on the terms of the transaction	0	0	0	0	0
Adjusted price to market conditions	2 weeks	6 weeks	1 year	1 year	1 year
Adjustment based on market conditions	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %	+10 %
Adjusted price	62000	70000	61600	77000	59400
Location	similar	similar	similar	similar	similar
Size	120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.	145 sq.m.	120 sq.m.
Adjust for size	0	- 8000	0	- 8000	0
Garage	There is	There is	There is	There is	No
Correction for the presence of a garage	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	- 2200	0
Finished basement	No	No	No	Yes	No
Correction for the basement	+ 7000	+ 7000	+ 7000	0	+ 7000
Adjusted price	66800	66800	66400	66800	66400
Overall net correction	1800	11200	10400	3200	12400
The same in %	3	14	19	5	23
From the selling price the total gross adjustment	11200	25200	14800	17200	12400
From the selling price	19	32	26	25	23

An adjusted price was obtained for each comparison object. In accordance with the conditions of the problem, it is required to derive the market value based on the data of adjusted sales prices.

The rationale for deriving a single indicator of market value is to give each member of the series of adjusted sales prices a weighting factor, taking into account the degree to which the objects of comparison differ from the objects of evaluation. In this case, one should take into account

attention to the range of dispersion of sales prices, the total % of adjustments taken by absolute value, the total % of adjustments defined as the difference between positive and negative adjustments, as well as any other data.

In this example, we have a practically very narrow range of sales prices - from 66,400 to 66,800. However, the sales price with smaller adjustments is assigned a greater share - for object No. 5, the number of adjustments = 2. In addition, the amount of the total gross adjustment for object No. 5 is the same almost the smallest. Therefore, the sale price of object No. 5 – 66,400 – was taken as the market value of the comparison object.

3.2 Investment risks and real estate market statistics.

Real estate market statistics usually contain information on rental rates and profitability indicators. For data comparability, the information refers only to first-class properties. It is believed that such objects meet the highest requirements for location, equipment, communication support, planning solutions, etc., and rental rates are determined in the same standards for measuring and distributing costs between the owner and the tenant for maintenance, repairs, insurance, etc. .

Information regarding rental rates is considered available. To unify it, only verification of the mentioned adequacy is required. Information about profitability indicators is more difficult to prepare. Since there are not so many purchase and sale transactions, previously completed transactions are taken into account, data on various objects are integrated, time gaps, inflation and other processes are taken into account. Profitability indicators also contain information about regional risks, and here the expert approach predominates. Therefore, statistics is one of the specializations in real estate markets.

The intensification of business and investment in the region is necessarily accompanied by an increase in the office market, an increase in demand, occupancy and rental rates. At the same time, new construction and modernization of offices is stimulated, followed by service departments, shopping complexes, leisure centers, etc. Such processes today are characteristic of the largest business centers: the traditional financial capitals of America and the Old World, the rapidly growing capitals of Southeast Asia, China and India. Analysis of rental business statistics indicates a number of interesting phenomena. For example:

Rental rate data is significantly more dynamic than yield data; the dynamics of rental rates is characterized by a certain fluctuation, reflecting (albeit with shifts) the general processes of ups and downs; changes in office and retail real estate indicators may not coincide in time and magnitude; improvements in the market situation are reflected in an increase in rental rates and, less often, in a decrease in profitability indicators (due to their noticeably less dynamism); an asymmetrical picture also occurs when the market situation worsens;

The values ​​of profitability indicators are better (lower) the more reliable and stable the regional economy and social situation are. The leaders of stable rental business are London, Paris and Frankfurt, where the area of ​​change in profitability indicators is in the area of ​​5-6%;

Changes in indicators for Eastern European capitals are less dynamic; this can be explained both by smaller market volumes, fewer transactions, and, apparently, by less interest of Western experts and business circles in these markets; profitability indicators for Eastern European capitals are consistently 2-3 times higher than similar values ​​for Western capitals. And in the period after the August 1998 crisis, profitability indicators in Moscow were 4 or more times worse. And this happened not only due to a real drop in the value of real estate, but, rather, as a consequence of an expert assessment of the state of instability and increasing business risks in this region;

It is proposed to obtain additional analytical information using the calculated unit capitalized cost (UCC) indicator - as an estimate of the cost of some average unit of commercial area of ​​the leased property.

Such an assessment, along with a prompt response to fluctuations in rental rates, carries expert opinions on the success and risks of the business.

Initial information - rental statistics for European cities - can be found in Western publications (for example, in the monthly EuroProperty). As representative objects we will choose: Frankfurt, London and Paris - the centers of the most stable business, St. Petersburg, Prague and Warsaw - the centers of the transition economy with the most risky (in Europe) rental business indicators.

Office rental business.

The observation period 01.99-08.00 for Western capitals showed overall progress in the office rental business. We note the absolute stability of the profitability indicator for London (5.00-5.50%) and the improvement in profitability indicators for Frankfurt (from 5.75 to 4.90-5.50%) and Paris (from 6.25-6.75 to 5.50-6.00%). For Eastern European capitals, the same period is characterized by worsening indicators. Analysis of the calculated data of the UKS made it possible, in addition, to bring into line the external discrepancy in the logic of rental rates (their excess in St. Petersburg and Warsaw until mid-1999 over the rates in Paris and Frankfurt). As a result, low UCL indicators at high rental rates do not yet allow us to optimistically expect investment growth.

Rental trading business.

The observation period 05.99-08.00 for Western capitals is characterized by a general deterioration in indicators (which can be clearly seen using the UCS). This suggests that there may be quite long periods of market activity, after which the sale of acquired retail space will not bring any real income at all.

For Eastern European capitals, the observation period 05.99-08.00 is associated with the passage of a period of long-term stagnation and, possibly, the beginning of an exit from it (an improvement in the dynamics of indicators was noted, although the gap in the UCS indicators in comparison with Western capitals seems gigantic - almost an order of magnitude). Therefore, for now we should confine ourselves to the statement that there may be quite long periods in the retail space markets when investments in the acquisition of retail real estate in Eastern European capitals can bring a noticeable positive effect, including during periods of recession in Western markets. This can serve as a good argument when looking for ways to “interregional” diversify a real estate portfolio.

Conclusion.

The end of the period of formation of the real estate market is characterized by a transition from extensive to intensive development. It is obvious that in the near future there will not be such a rapid growth in the number of transactions on the market as in the first half of the 90s. Moreover, during a certain period in the housing market, only stabilization of the number of transactions is possible. It also seems quite possible to increase the price level, primarily in the secondary market. But at the same time, prices for luxury housing not only did not decrease, but also increased, which indicates the prospects for new construction of high-quality housing. Firm managers also note the intensification of competition in the market. Most of them are inclined to believe that if 1995 was characterized by a moderate degree of competition, then in 2001 it became high and will remain so.

The stabilization of the number of transactions and prices in the secondary housing market is a consequence, first of all, of macroeconomic factors, the main one being the persistence of low income levels among the bulk of the population. The initial rapid growth of demand in the market, as a consequence of the emergence of a layer of high-income people in the country, has now practically ended. And today, within this layer, a new differentiation is taking place - the separation of a layer with ultra-high incomes. Due to this differentiation, the demand for luxury housing has increased. However, in absolute terms, the potential of this layer is very limited. A serious expansion of demand is possible either through increasing income levels and the formation of a broad middle stratum capable of becoming the main supplier of buyers, or through active stimulation of demand, both by the state and by the professional participants in the real estate market themselves. At the same time, some increase in demand in the future is quite possible under the influence of the inevitable release of money into the economy in the coming months to resolve the non-payment crisis and in connection with the repayment of wage arrears and arrears on government orders. Some of this money will also come to the real estate market, but it obviously will not radically change the situation, although the number of applications for purchase under the influence of this factor will rise by several points.

It can also be assumed that due to the inevitable and significant increase in utility tariffs, it is quite possible that supply in the secondary housing market will increase.

Moreover, if the surge in supply on the secondary market in 1991-1993. was caused by a rapid rise in prices, now sellers will proceed not so much from the possibility of a very significant increase in income through the sale of housing, but from the need to reduce the costs of its maintenance, and hence – agree to lower prices. This, in turn, can also slightly increase demand, and therefore the turnover of real estate firms.

At the same time, this stabilization will not alleviate the general problem - the residential real estate market in the foreseeable future will experience a shortage of demand, which can significantly reduce income from the traditional activity of real estate firms in providing services for the purchase and sale of real estate.

In these conditions, it is necessary to significantly expand the range of services provided by the company to the client: bank payments, transport services, notary services, the possibility of carrying out repair work, providing installment payments, etc., increased attention to advertising, possibly reducing commissions. All these tools can play a significant role in attracting customers, but their capabilities are still limited. If for individual companies these techniques are able to provide the necessary volume of turnover, then, obviously, in general they will not solve the problem of developing the real estate business. This problem will be radically solved only by expanding demand in the market, and in modern conditions this is only possible through the active participation of the state by creating a mortgage lending system - creating federal and regional mortgage lending agencies, supporting the secondary mortgage market, providing government guarantees to banks when they issue mortgages. loans.

The consistent development of the real estate market in Russia naturally led to the next stage, characterized by a sudden increase in requirements for the quality of justification for investment decisions. Both abroad and in Russia, real estate market participants are coming to understand that the reliability of business plans, investment projects, etc., which are essentially a standard set of simple formulas, depends entirely on the validity of market research, the results of which are used in the formulas . In other words, the most significant and significant indicator of the viability of an investment project in the real estate market is the viability of the market research on the basis of which this decision is made.

Bibliography:

1. Balabanov I.T. “Real Estate Economics”, St. Petersburg 2000.

2. Goremykin V.A. Economics of real estate: Textbook. – 2nd ed., revised. And additional – M.: Publishing and bookselling center “Marketing”, 2002

3. Kupchin A.N., Novikov B.D. real estate market: state and development trends. - Tutorial. M.: 1995.

4. Maksimov S.N. “Fundamentals of entrepreneurial activity in the real estate market”, St. Petersburg. 2000.

5. Novikov B.D. Real estate market and valuation in Russia. – M.: “Exam”, 2000.

6. Khamin D., Yurkov D. “The real estate market through the eyes of realtors” // Economics and life, 1997

Other materials

Part of the above proposal seems to be insufficiently reasoned, the second part is about the legal disappearance of the building as an object of civil rights, since the original immovable thing was not just a thing, but a composite thing with a more complex system level and type of elemental...




Russia until 2005. // http:www.sbrf.ru/concept/2005 from 00.htm Review of the thesis

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for assessing the value of real estate

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

1.3 Types of real estate values

1.4 Basic principles of real estate valuation

1.5 Factors affecting the value of real estate

Chapter 2. Valuation of residential real estate

2.2 Valuation of residential real estate using the income approach

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

2.4 Valuation of real estate using the cost approach

2.5 Coordination of real estate valuation results

Chapter 3. Suggestions for improving real estate valuation methods

Conclusion

List of used literature and sources

Application

INTRODUCTION

Among the elements of a market economy, a special place is occupied by real estate, which acts as a means of production (land, administrative, industrial, warehouse, commercial and other buildings and premises, as well as other structures) and an item or object of consumption (land plots, residential buildings, dachas, apartments, garages).

Real estate is the basis of personal existence for citizens and serves as the basis for economic activity and the development of enterprises and organizations of all forms of ownership. In Russia, there is an active formation and development of the real estate market and an increasing number of citizens, enterprises and organizations are participating in real estate transactions.

Thanks to constructive interaction between the state and appraisers, the process of property appraisal in recent years has become much more civilized compared to the times when independent appraisal in Russia was just in its infancy. Today, the activities of appraisers are regulated by the relevant federal law and standards in the field of appraisal.

The purpose of the thesis is to develop proposals for improving methods for assessing residential real estate.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

Describe the essence of housing assessment;

Describe methodological approaches to real estate valuation;

Evaluate residential real estate using a cost, comparative and income approach;

Conduct a comparative analysis of the assessment results;

Develop proposals for improving the methodology for assessing residential real estate.

The object of research in the thesis is the assessment of residential real estate, and the subject of the research is methods and approaches to the assessment of residential real estate.

The methodological basis of the research carried out in the thesis is the scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of real estate valuation S.V. Gribovsky, E.I. Tarasevich, M.A. Fedotova, D. Friedman.

The first chapter of the thesis “Methodological regulations for assessing the value of real estate objects” reveals the types of value of real estate objects and their classification. The factors influencing the value of real estate, as well as the basic principles of real estate valuation, are considered.

The second chapter, “Valuation of Residential Real Estate,” presents the results of evaluating a real estate property - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - using the income and comparative approach, as well as the results of calculating the liquidation value of the property.

The third chapter, “Proposals for improving methods for assessing residential real estate,” presents the main directions for improving existing approaches to assessing residential real estate.

Chapter 1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS FOR ASSESSING THE VALUE OF REAL ESTATE

1.1 The need for an independent housing assessment

Valuation is the science of applied economic analysis, the main task of which is to establish the most likely price for the sale or purchase of an asset (product) based on an analysis of the dynamics of the forces of supply and demand for this asset in the relevant market. From a formal point of view, the most probable price is set based on modeling of a certain set of demand factors and a set of supply factors.

Currently, real estate valuation activities are regulated by the Federal Law “On Valuation Activities in the Russian Federation” dated 08/06/98 No. 135 - Federal Law.

The active development of real estate valuation in our country is facilitated by the current situation in the real estate market.

The real estate market is currently one of the most dynamic markets in our country, one of the most attractive investment objects. It is becoming very important right now, when the situation in the world is very unstable: experts cannot give accurate forecasts about oil prices, they predict a decline in the dollar exchange rate - real estate remains practically the only guarantor of the safety of savings.

The main directions of development of Russian valuation can be determined based on the list of operations in which it is necessary to evaluate real estate objects. It should be noted that this list is constantly expanding.

An objective assessment of various types of value (market, investment, collateral, insurance, taxable and others) of real estate is necessary:

During purchase and sale or rental transactions;

When corporatizing enterprises and redistributing property shares;

To attract new shareholders and issue additional shares;

During cadastral valuation for taxation purposes of real estate: buildings and land plots;

For insurance of real estate;

When lending secured by real estate;

When contributing real estate as a contribution to the authorized capital of enterprises and organizations;

When developing investment projects and attracting investors, including foreign ones;

When liquidating real estate;

When executing inheritance rights, court judgment;

For other operations related to the implementation of property rights to real estate.

There are three main approaches to real estate valuation:

Cost method: the cost of complete reproduction or the cost of complete replacement of the property being assessed is estimated, then the amount of estimated depreciation of buildings and structures is subtracted and the cost of the plot of land is added as a vacant one. This approach may be necessary when the valuation of an object for the purposes of property taxation or property seizure requires separating the value of buildings and structures from the value of land. It is also used for income tax and accounting purposes: depreciation of buildings and structures is deducted from taxable income. Other Application Situations:

Feasibility analysis for new construction,

Determining the best and most efficient use of land,

Update,

Final price agreement,

Buildings for institutional and special purposes,

Purposes of insurance.

Market Comparison Method: Estimating the market value of a property based on recent transactions of similar properties. It is assumed that a rational investor or buyer will not pay more for a particular property than it would cost to purchase another similar property that has the same utility.

Income Method: The value of a property is determined by the amount, quality, and duration of the benefits that the property is expected to provide in the future.

In Russia in recent years, the cost method in assessing the value of objects has been widespread. Moreover, its use was declared by the Government when developing property revaluation programs. This led to the fact that the value of fixed assets and real estate was greatly underestimated. Nowadays, the process of revaluation of such objects is of particular importance, which can be done based on the market valuation method.

Today, the number of appraisal organizations on the Russian market is significant. As of the end of 2004, more than 9,000 companies and private legal entities in Russia have state licenses to carry out appraisal activities. Now the market is regulated by the Ministry of Economic Development, but from January 1, 2006, a transition to self-regulation is taking place.

At the present stage, the appraisal market is characterized by increased competition, improved quality, and reduced costs of services. In particular, the demand for valuation in order to reflect assets in financial statements in accordance with IAS, US GAAP or Russian accounting standards is constantly increasing; assessing the value of intangible assets to determine the effectiveness of marketing and brand strategies; assessment for the purpose of carrying out purchase and sale transactions, lease of assets, M&A and other transactions for the transfer of ownership rights and other property rights; valuation for insurance purposes, additional issue of shares or repurchase of shares during the privatization of state-owned enterprises; assessment for the purpose of lending secured by property, etc.

According to the results of a study by the Expert RA rating agency, the most popular services over the past year and a half have been valuation services for real estate and business in general. The share of these areas in the overall market structure accounted for 34.3 and 32.1%, respectively.

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

The valuation of real estate is of interest primarily for objects that are actively traded on the market as an independent product. Currently in Russia these are apartments and rooms, office premises and buildings for offices, suburban residential buildings with land plots, vacant land plots for development and (or) for other purposes. Real estate also includes mineral deposits, the Russian market of which has not yet formed. Below we will consider the general principles of classification of real estate objects.

The first category of real estate. The term “real estate object” in our case refers to any product that is rigidly connected to a piece of land; its transfer to another location is impossible without destruction and loss of consumer value. The proposed formulation is intended to promote a differentiated approach to the assessment of various categories of real estate, taking into account their most significant features, characteristics of commodity turnover, the structure and scale of markets within which the processes of purchase and sale of real estate take place. Since the valuation of a real estate property is influenced by various conditions and their combinations, the “feature tree” method was used to carry out classification (grouping). This classification (grouping) is multi-level. At each level, it is carried out according to its basis with possible differences at the same level, but along different “branches”. At the same time, the depth (number of levels) of classification is greater for those branches on which more representative (from the point of view of their assessment) objects are located.

Each level has its own name and a set of recommended values ​​for the corresponding classification characteristic.

1. Origin.

2. Purpose.

3. Scale.

3.1 Land masses.

3.2. Separate land plots.

3.3. Complexes of buildings and structures (dacha village, microdistrict, hotel, sanatorium, etc.)

3.3.1. Apartment building.

3.3.2. Single-apartment residential building (mansion, cottage).

3.3.3. Section (entrance).

3.3.4. Floor in section.

3.3.5. Apartment.

3.3.6. Room.

3.3.7. Summer cottage.

3.4. complex of administrative buildings.

3.4.1. Building.

3.4.. Premises or parts of buildings (sections, floors).

4. Ready to use.

4.1. Ready.

4.2. Requiring reconstruction or major repairs.

4.3. Requiring completion of construction.

Since the apartment market is currently the most developed sector of the real estate market in Russia, it makes sense to focus efforts on studying this sector in order to develop basic methodological approaches for assessing the value of real estate.

In the mature Western market, a different classification of real estate into categories A, B and C has been adopted, which differs from the above proposed classification.

Divided into the following classes:

1) Specialized real estate adapted for the conduct of a specific business and usually sold along with the business.

Examples: oil refineries, chemical plants, workshops for placing machinery and equipment; buildings which, due to their location, size, design, are never sold or rented to a third party on the market.

2) Non-specialized real estate - ordinary buildings - shops, offices, factories, warehouses, which are usually sold or rented.

Classification of real estate objects according to various characteristics (criteria) contributes to more successful research of the real estate market and facilitates the development and application of methods for assessing the value of various categories of real estate. In the classification process, separate groups of real estate are identified, which determines the possibility of uniform approaches to their assessment.

1.3 Types of real estate values

At the initial stage of real estate valuation, the expert appraiser always faces the difficult problem of choosing the type of value for carrying out valuation calculations. This choice depends on many factors (the nature of the object and the functions of the assessment) and determines the subsequent choice of the method of assessment of this property. If a real estate property is appraised for the purpose of obtaining a mortgage loan (loan secured by real estate property), it is important for the appraiser to have reliable information about the most likely sale price of this real estate property if the borrower (real estate owner) does not repay the loan (loan). When assessing real estate for tax purposes in Western countries, the market or replacement value of the property is used, based on the costs of its reproduction. When assessing objects subject to reconstruction, as a rule, the investment value is selected, i.e. the value of real estate for a specific investor.

When valuing special-purpose buildings, real estate in “passive” sectors of the real estate market, when there is not enough information to determine the market value, as well as when valuing real estate for insurance purposes, the replacement cost or replacement cost is used.

Market price

In market economic conditions, the most common type of value of real estate is market value. Market value is the most likely price that a property would achieve in a competitive and open market under all conditions of fair trade, conscientious action by the seller and buyer, and without the influence of illegal incentives.

It is understood that in a purchase and sale transaction, the transfer of rights from the seller to the buyer is subject to the following conditions.

1. The motivation of the buyer and seller is typical, i.e. they act without undue pressure or extraordinary life circumstances.

2. Both parties are well informed, consulted and act in what they believe is their best interests.

3. The property has been put up for sale on the market for a sufficient amount of time (sufficient for potential buyers to become familiar with the information about the sale of the property and make a decision to purchase the property).

4. Payment was made on the terms of financing the transaction.

5. The price is normal, not affected by specific financing and sales conditions.

The market value of real estate is otherwise called exchange value - in contrast to value in use (or use value), which reflects the value of the object for a particular owner.

The concept of market value is based on the fact that the typical buyer in the real estate market has the opportunity to select alternative properties. Market value is objective, independent of the wishes of individual participants in the real estate market and reflects the real economic conditions prevailing in this market.

Cost in use (consumer cost)

Cost in use (consumer value) reflects the value of a property for a specific owner who does not intend to put the property on the real estate market. The assessment of the consumer value of an object is made based on the existing profile of its use and those financial and economic parameters that were observed during the prehistory of the operation of the object and are predicted in the future.

Investment cost

The concept of “investment value,” similar to the concept of “value in use,” means the value of a property for a specific investor who is going to buy the property being valued or invest their financial resources in it. The investment value is calculated based on the income expected by the investor and the specific rate of their capitalization. Investment value is usually calculated when assessing an investment project or an income-generating object for a specific investor. This type of cost is subjective.

Replacement cost (cost of object reproduction)

Replacement cost (the cost of reproducing an object) is determined by the costs in current prices for the construction of an exact copy of the object being valued, in its “new” condition (excluding wear and tear), using the same architectural solutions, building structures and materials, as well as with the same quality of construction - installation work. In this case, the same obsolescence of the object and the same shortcomings in architectural solutions that the assessed object had are reproduced.

Replacement cost

Replacement cost is determined by the costs at current prices for the construction of a property that has equivalent utility to the one being assessed, but built in a new architectural style, using modern design standards and advanced materials and structures, as well as modern equipment of the property. Thus, the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of reproducing an exact copy of an object, and the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of creating an object of a functional analogue.

Insurance value

The insurable value is calculated based on either the replacement cost or the replacement cost of the item that is at risk of destruction (or destruction). On the basis of the insured value of the object, the insured amounts, insurance payments and insurance interest are determined.

Value for tax purposes (taxable value)

The value for the purposes of taxation of property of legal entities and individuals is determined by expert appraisers accredited by tax inspectorates on the basis of either the market value or the replacement cost of the property, or the assessment is carried out formally according to normative methods without the involvement of expert appraisers.

Liquidation value

Liquidation value is the net amount of money that a property owner can receive when the property is liquidated.

1.4 Basic principles of real estate valuation

The principles of real estate valuation can be combined into the following four groups:

Principles based on ideas of use;

Principles related to real estate (land, buildings, structures);

Principles related to the market environment;

The principle of the best and most efficient use of real estate.

All the principles of real estate valuation under consideration are interconnected. When appraising a property, it is necessary, if possible, to take into account all or the basic principles of valuation in order to obtain a more reliable and accurate assessment of the value of the property.

User Guidelines

User-based principles include the principles of utility, substitution, and expectation.

The principle of utility is that any property has value only if it is useful to some investor and can be used to implement certain functions or personal needs, for example, using the property as a hotel, cafe, office, museum, etc. .d. Utility is the ability of a property to satisfy the needs of a user in a given location and during a given period of time.

The principle of substitution states that a rational (typical) buyer will not pay more for a property than the minimum price charged for another similar property of equal utility. The maximum value of the assessed object is determined by the lowest cost at which another similar object with equivalent utility can be purchased.

The expectation principle is associated with the user's perception of a property and states: the value of an income-generating property is determined by the amount of cash flow expected from the use of the property being valued, as well as the amount expected from its resale. It is important over what period of time the expected income will be received, since an investor’s ruble today is worth more than the ruble that will be received tomorrow.

Principles related to the requirements for a land plot, buildings and structures located on it

This group includes the following principles:

Residual productivity (productivity) of the land;

Marginal productivity (principle of contribution);

Balance (principle of proportionality);

Optimal values;

Optimal division of property rights.

The principle of residual productivity of land.

The principle of residual productivity (or productivity) states that the value of land is based on its residual productivity (productivity). To understand this position, it is necessary to recognize that any type of activity, as a rule, requires the presence of four components of production: capital, labor, management and land.

Land is a plot of land and the natural resources located on it - closed bodies of water, wildlife, vegetation and minerals. The territorial boundaries of a land plot are determined in the manner established by the current land legislation and are documented in a certificate issued to the owner (or tenant) by state land management authorities. Land is the main factor that provides the space and resources needed for any type of production activity.

Labor is a set of works to produce a product (service) and sell it on the market. This concept does not include management activities.

Capital is money invested in the reproduction of fixed assets and working capital, as well as in other components of production - labor, land and management.

Management of production activities includes the knowledge, skills, entrepreneurial abilities and talent of the management personnel of the enterprise. Successful management allows you to optimize production and maximize profits.

Each component of production (capital, labor, management and land) must be covered from business income. However, since land is physically immovable and other components are brought into it to carry out business activities, labor, capital and management are paid first, and the remainder of the income is paid to the owner of the land as rent. Such a judgment is consistent with the basic principles of economic theory - land has a “residual value” and a certain value only when there is a remainder of income after covering the other three components of production. Thus, residual productivity is expressed by the income accruing to the land after paying for the costs of labor, capital and management.

The principle of marginal productivity (the principle of contribution).

The principle of marginal productivity (or productivity) or the principle of contribution means that as a result of investments, the income remaining after covering costs must be obtained. In relation to the real estate market, this principle can be interpreted as follows. Often, the cost of renovating an apartment allows you to increase its value, and in amounts significantly exceeding the cost of renovating it. In this case, the principle of marginal productivity or the principle of contribution is implemented. The size of the contribution corresponds to the difference between the price received as a result of the renovation of the apartment and the costs of this renovation.

The principle of increasing and decreasing returns.

The essence of this principle is that an increase in capital investment in the main components of production causes an increase in the rate of profit growth only up to a certain limit, after which the increase in profit becomes less than the increase in capital investment. This limit corresponds to the maximum value of the property. Any subsequent investment in real estate will not provide a proportional increase in profit, and therefore a proportional increase in the value of the property.

Therefore, the appraiser must first analyze various options for using the land. For example, perform calculations of profit from the construction of various types of real estate or different numbers of objects on a given land plot. Only after this will he be able to make the final choice of the type of property for construction on this site. In the process of variant design of various combinations of production components and determination of maximum profit on this basis, the principle of increasing and decreasing profitability is implemented.

The principle of balance.

The principle of balance (or the principle of proportionality) is formulated as follows: the components of production (or a property) must be combined with each other in a certain proportion. If the volume of capital investments exceeds the volume of work in a given period of time, for example, during the construction of a facility, then a “capital freeze” occurs and the overall efficiency of the project decreases. A similar situation is possible when, at a given moment in time, there are insufficient funds for the construction of a property, which is well known to investors of new construction. In this regard, regulatory documents as part of the project documentation for the construction of the facility provide for the development of calendar schedules for the construction of the facility in order to obtain the maximum possible effect from the implementation of the project.

The principle of optimal values.

The principle of optimal values ​​(the principle of optimal economic value), given the current trends in the real estate market, a certain (optimal) value of a property of this type is in great demand. An expert appraiser should always remember the principle of optimal values ​​and use it when valuing real estate of this type.

The principle of optimal division of property rights.

Property rights to a property should be divided and combined in such a way as to increase the total value of the property. The current legislation of the Russian Federation allows property rights to be divided and sold separately. Property rights imply the rights to own, use and dispose of property. In addition to the right of ownership, property rights are the right of lifelong inheritable possession, the right of permanent (perpetual) property use, the right of economic ownership and the right of operational management, as well as various types of easements - the right of limited use of real estate. Moreover, the transfer of ownership of property to another person is not a basis for termination of other property rights, for example, lease rights to this property.

The division of property rights to a real estate property can be carried out as follows:

1. Physical division is the division of a property into parts: basement, floors, etc. For a land plot - division of rights to airspace, to the surface of the earth and to its subsoil, division of the land mass into separate plots.

2. Division by time of ownership - these are various types of leases, lifelong ownership, future property rights, etc.

3. Separation of the totality of property rights of ownership - rights of ownership, fixed-term or perpetual use, disposal, lifelong (inherited) ownership, economic management, operational management and the right to limited use of the property.

4. Division of property rights among participants - joint tenancy, partnership, joint stock companies, options, trusts, contracts with agreed terms of sale.

5. Divisions by liens – mortgages, tax liens, court liens, participation in capital.

The use in the practice of property relations of the above types of divisions of the totality of property rights and their optimal combination makes it possible to increase the value of real estate.

Principles related to the market environment

This group of principles includes the principles of dependence, conformity, supply and demand, competition and the principle of change.

The principle of dependence

The principle of dependence (or the principle of external influence) states: various environmental factors influence the value of a property. These factors - depending on the degree of their influence on a particular object - are divided into basic and additional; depending on the sphere of influence - on climatic, geological, regional, social, economic, environmental, demographic, legal, international, urban planning, industrial and technical. In turn, economic factors can also be differentiated according to various criteria: financial, regulatory and others. The appraiser needs to remember that in all cases, location is the main factor influencing the value of a property, and the analysis of the value of real estate should begin with it. The main factors also include the proximity of the property to developed infrastructure (connection with the user market): roads, shopping and cultural centers, etc., i.e. the evaluator needs to establish how the revenue streams relate to the user's market. These two factors – the location of the property and its connection with the user’s market – together constitute the concept of “economic location of real estate.” This total factor has the greatest impact on the value of the property. The expert appraiser must identify and measure the influence of environmental factors on:

The value of the property being assessed and make appropriate adjustments to this value using the comparative sales analysis method;

The amount of cash flow using the income approach;

Cost level when determining replacement cost or replacement cost using the cost approach.

The principle of correspondence.

The principle of conformity states that a property that does not meet current market standards has a lower value. An expert appraiser must not only know the compliance standards for a given real estate market, but also monitor their development trends in order to anticipate the future value of the property being appraised.

The principle of supply and demand.

The demand for real estate is a real need for them. Supply is the number of objects available on the real estate market and the limitation of its supply.

The essence of the principle of supply and demand is to identify the relationship between the need for a property and the limited supply of it.

Demand for a property is determined by its utility (ability to satisfy user needs) and availability, but is limited by the solvency of potential consumers. The lower the demand and the higher the supply, the lower the cost of the property. Conversely, if supply and demand are balanced in the real estate market, the market value of the property will stabilize.

Expert appraisers should remember that, as a rule, the demand for real estate is more subject to fluctuations than supply, since sharp changes in the money supply (for example, as a result of the bankruptcy of financial companies) and emotional sentiment at the time of a real estate transaction, etc. occur in shorter time periods than the construction of real estate, as a result of which additional supply is created on the market. Knowing this ability in the relationship between supply and demand allows an expert appraiser to more accurately predict the value of a property.

For residential premises, the ratio of supply and demand depends on the demographic composition of the population, the level of prices for real estate and consumer goods, the intensity of the advertising campaign, new legislation and regulations, the cost of loans, property taxation and other factors.

An expert appraiser must predict the relationship between supply and demand for the property being valued, determine the degree of influence of this ratio and all of the above factors on the value of real estate.

The principle of competition.

Competition is rivalry, competition in any type of activity. All people are naturally competitive. Competition or rivalry increases sharply when it comes to excess profits in some type of activity. The real estate market is no exception in this regard. If excess profits are made in the real estate market (this is a profit that significantly exceeds the usually prevailing level of profit in a given sector of the market), entrepreneurs strive to get into this market. Increasing competition leads to an increase in supply on the market. If demand does not increase, prices for real estate in this case decrease and the profits of entrepreneurs decrease. And, conversely, when competition weakens, supply decreases and, if demand does not decrease, prices for real estate and the profits of entrepreneurs rise.

Reasonable competition stimulates an increase in the quality of objects and services in the real estate market, while excessive competition leads to a decrease in profits.

In the absence of competition in the real estate market (and this happens with monopolistic competition), the market value of the property cannot be determined, since the market value is formed only in a competitive market.

The principle of change.

Both the real estate object itself (for example, physical wear and tear) and all environmental factors that affect the value of the object are subject to change.

The most characteristic types of changes are the so-called life cycles. These changes affect the real estate properties themselves, as well as regions (cities), industries, and society as a whole.

The following main life cycles are distinguished.

1. Origin (design, construction of a facility, formation of an industry, region, etc.).

2. Growth (a period of growth in income from the operation of a real estate property, rapid development of a region (city), industry, etc.).

3. Stability, a period of equilibrium (stable incomes, formed tastes of real estate consumers, established infrastructure of the area, etc.).

4. Decline (a period of decreased demand for real estate, decreased profits, decline in production in the industry, etc.).

Taking into account life cycles, an expert appraiser must analyze and predict legislative, demographic, international, scientific, technical, urban planning and social processes, as well as the reaction of the real estate market to them.

Best and Best Use Principle

The principle of its highest and best use is formulated as follows: it is the reasonable and possible use of it that provides the highest current value of the object at the effective valuation date.

Another definition of this principle is known: this is an option for using a property, chosen among reasonable and possible ones, which leads to the highest value of the land. This definition of the principle usually applies to the assessment of buildings and structures with significant wear and tear, as well as the assessment of vacant land plots.

If the cost of a building (structure) is determined, then when evaluating this type of real estate, one should focus on the first determination of the principle of the best and most efficient use. In this case, when choosing possible options for using this object, you can exclude the option accepted at the time of assessment, since such use of real estate is limited to a time period until the value of the land plot with its best and most efficient use does not exceed the value of the entire property complex (land and buildings) together with the costs of demolishing the building.

This principle is basic (basic) for the implementation of all three approaches to valuation, and its interpretation is of particular importance in each specific case, as it affects the choice of the type of value. When determining the most likely sale price of a property (the market value of the property), the following interpretation of this principle is most appropriate: “the most likely use of an existing property,” while when determining the investment value, the emphasis in the interpretation is on “the most effective use of the property.”

The analysis of the best and most effective use of a property is carried out in two stages: in the first, the best and most effective use of the land plot is analyzed, as if it were free, and in the second, the best and most effective use of the building (structure) that is located on this site .

1.5 Factors affecting the value of real estate

As with any other pricing mechanisms, the value of real estate depends on a set of objective and subjective factors, of which only the latter are related to the behavior of a particular seller, buyer and (or) intermediary at the stage of concluding a transaction. Subjective factors include, for example, temperament, awareness, honesty, patience, personal likes and dislikes of participants in a real estate transaction, etc. My thesis does not consider these factors related to the field of psychology, and the main attention is paid to objective factors and their influence on the valuation of real estate.

Objective factors are mainly economic, ultimately determining the average price level of specific transactions.

Economic factors are divided into macroeconomic and microeconomic. The first include factors related to the general market conditions: the initial level of supply of demand for real estate in the region; volumes and structure of new construction and reconstruction; migration factors; legal and economic terms of transactions (taxes, duties, etc.); level and dynamics of inflation. Macroeconomic factors also include long-term factors: differences in the dynamics of prices for goods (services) and wage conditions, affecting the scale of accumulation of funds and the amount of deferred demand; the pace and scale of the formation of a new social stratum of “rich people” who have the opportunity to invest in real estate; development of a system of foreign representative offices in the region, etc.

CHAPTER 2. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY ASSESSMENT

2.1 Description of the property

The object of assessment is a separate apartment consisting of two living rooms.

The purpose of the assessment is to determine the value of the above property.

The real estate object refers to the actual object, which is real estate, and the legal rights to it.

Facility inspection report

Object address: Russia, Novosibirsk, Krasny Prospekt, 171/2, apt. 27. Owner: Abramenko N.I. BTI certificate No. 78965784. The apartment is privatized.

The facility is located along the metro line (on the right bank), the transport network is well developed. 10 minutes to Zaeltsovskaya metro station. on foot. Nearby are the Siberian Fair exhibition center, a casino, a night club, a hairdresser, a sports and fitness center, the Energy House of Culture, the Progress-Kinomir cinema, and the Botanical Garden is a 10-minute walk away.

The nearest micromarket is a 10-minute walk away.

Analysis of the location area allows us to give a high assessment of the labor market in the area in which the assessment object is located. Proximity to shops and educational institutions is assessed as satisfactory. The quality of public services, as well as public order services, is assessed as satisfactory.

A kindergarten and a clinic are located 5 minutes from the house, schools are quite distant (15 - 20 minutes).

Environmental conditions are poor due to the proximity of factories - the Novosibirsk Electrovacuum Plant, the Ekran plant, the plant named after. Lenin, Novosibirsk Semiconductor Plant.

Characteristics of the house.

The wall material is panel. The total number of floors is 5. The height of the floors is 2.2 m. The house is removed from the roadway, located in the courtyards.

Year of construction: 1975. The general appearance of the building is good.

Water supply - central, heating - central, ventilation - natural, energy supply - central.

Information about the apartment:

The two-room apartment is located on the 2nd floor of the house. The total area of ​​the apartment is 42 sq. m. m, living area – 28 sq. m (one room – 18 sq. m, the second – 10 sq. m). The kitchen area is 6 square meters. m, the bathroom occupies 3.5 sq.m. The apartment has a balcony and a telephone. The orientation of the windows is to the west. The general appearance of the apartment is satisfactory.

The layout of the apartment and its location in the entrance are presented in Appendix 1.

Thus, an analysis of the location and condition of the object as a first approximation allows us to speak of a fairly high cost of the object.

The assessment was made in accordance with the following assumptions:

No special examination of utility networks was carried out;

The subject property does not have any hidden defects, including defects in the load-bearing frame of the building, which could affect its value;

The property complies with all sanitary and environmental standards;

Reliable sources of information were used in the assessment.

2.2 Valuation of residential real estate using the income approach

Real estate valuation using the direct capitalization method

To calculate the capitalization rate for the purpose of valuing residential real estate, you should use the simplified Elwood method.

R= Υ - App * (SFS) = CHOD / TS, (1.1)

where R is the capitalization rate;

Υ - rate of return on equity capital;

App - possible increase in the value of property over the period;

SFS is the redemption factor at rate Υ for the forecast holding period;

NOR - net operating income;

TC - current value.

Net operating income can be determined using the following formula:

CHOD = EVD - PR, (1.2)

where EVD is effective gross income, which is determined as follows:

EVD = PVD - PP + DD, (1.3)

where PPV is the potential gross income for 1 year, assuming that the property is fully rented,

PP - estimated losses from unemployment opportunities (3%),

DD - other income.

Υ - represents the real income that suits the typical investor.

The repayment rate is determined by the following formula:

SFS= i / (l+i)n-1 , (1.4)

where n is the number of periods;

i - discount rate (rate of return on equity capital).

Using the direct capitalization method, we will determine the cost of a two-room apartment purchased with the aim of generating rental income with subsequent sale.

Rent - 12,000 rubles. / month Possible downtime - 3% Operating costs - 1200 rub. /month The rate of return on equity is 15%. Tenure period: 5 years. The planned increase in value is 40%.

The capital repayment rate under the indicated conditions will be 0.086:

SFS = 0.15 / (1+ 0.15) 5-1 = 0.086.

Then the capitalization rate will be equal to 0.1583:

R = 0.15 - 0.40 * 0.139 = 0.0944.

Effective gross income calculated using formula (1.3) will be equal to 139,680 rubles:

EVD = 12000 * 12 - 12000 * 12 * 0.03 = 139680 rub.

The net operating income from owning a property under these conditions will be 125,280 rubles:

CHOD = 139680 - 1200 * 12 = 125280 rub.

The current value of a property can be determined by the formula:

TC = CHOD / R, (1.5)

where R is the capitalization rate;

NOR - net operating income from ownership of real estate.

Thus, the current value of the assessed residential property will be 1327118.6 rubles:

TS = 125280 / 0.0944 = 1327118.6 rubles.

At the next stage of the assessment, we will determine the value of the object by discounting future income.

Discounting of future income is a method used to evaluate income-producing real estate objects as their current value and expected future benefits from owning the object.

The future benefits of real estate transactions are as follows:

Frequency of receipts in the form of net operating income during ownership of the facility;

Reversion is the proceeds from the sale of the property after the period of ownership.

The current value of the property is determined as follows:

TS = TS (PPD) + TS (R), (1.6)

where PPD is the frequency of income flows;

Ρ - reversion;

TC - current value.

The value of an object, calculated using the discounted future income method, is the present value of all future cash flows and reversions, taking into account the degree of risk and alternative uses.

The methodology for calculating the cost using the proposed method is as follows.

Stage 1. Forecast of future income stream and estimated resale value of the property:

Determining the size of the forecast period;

Determining the frequency of receipt of income.

Net operating income (NOI) is used as a forecast base.

Reversion calculation, i.e. proceeds from the sale of the property are made taking into account possible changes in the value of the property. Costs associated with sales costs are deducted from the reversion cost.

Stage 2. Calculation of the discount rate.

Discount rate is a factor used to calculate the present value of a sum of money received in the future.

The discount rate shows the effectiveness of capital investments taking into account the risk of receiving the planned amount. The discount rate is chosen as the average rate of return that investors expect to receive on their capital investments in similar properties in a given market.

Since the discount rate directly depends on the risk, it is determined by how high the average investor assesses the level of risk associated with investing in a given property.

Consequently, the higher the risk level, the higher the discount rate and, accordingly, the current value of future income is less and the current value of real estate is less.

Stage 3. Reducing the future value of cash flows to present value using compound interest techniques.

CP = TS ± Δ = TS (1 +j), (1.7)

where Δ is an increase or decrease in the value of the object;

CP - cost of reversion;

J – share of change in the value of the object during the reporting period (0.4).

The current value of the property is calculated using the following formula:

where i is the rate of return on equity;

n - forecast period.

Net operating income was calculated above using the direct capitalization method and amounted to RUB 125,280 for the property being valued.

Let us assume that we will receive income from the operation of the property once a year. In this case, the current value of the property will be 1,346,178 rubles:

TS = 125280 / (1+ 0.15) + 125280/ (1 + 0.15)2 + 125280 / (1+ 0.15)3 +

125280 / (1+ 0,15)4 + 125280 / (1+ 0,15)5 +

TS * (1+0.4) / (1+0.15)5 =

108939 + 94909 + 82967 + 72416 + 63273 + TS * 0.696

TS = 1346178 rub.

During the appraisal, it is possible to estimate the future value of cash flows from the property.

SR = 1346178 * (1+0.4) = 1884649 rub.,

Thus, after 5 years, the appraised apartment can be sold for 1,884,649 rubles.

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

The essence of the approach is to compare the property being valued with other properties that have been put up for sale.

The fundamental principle of the comparative approach to real estate valuation is the principle of substitution. It states that if there are several similar properties on the market, a rational buyer will not pay for the property more than the amount it would cost to purchase other real estate of similar utility.

Assessment steps:

1. market research;

2. collection and verification of data;

3. analysis and comparison of data;

4. amendments;

5. data reconciliation.

Market research is conducted to identify those comparable sales and properties proposed for sale that are similar to the subject property.

Each sale used as a comparable in the appraisal report must be personally inspected by the appraiser.

It is necessary to compare each object with the one being assessed and analyze the differences:

Date of sale;

Physical characteristics;

Location;

Terms of sale.

The next step in the assessment is to make adjustments. The essence of this stage is to adjust the selling prices or asking prices for each comparable object in accordance with the existing differences.

Cost adjustments change the price of a sold analogue object by a certain amount, which is estimated at the differences in the characteristics of the analogue object and the valued object.

Percentage adjustments are used to adjust for differences due to transaction timing, location, and physical characteristics.

Successive amendments. Their peculiarity is that, depending on the sequence in which percentage adjustments are made, different results can be obtained.

Cumulative corrections are obtained by multiplying all individual corrections. In this case, no sequence is required.

The final value represents a judgment made by the appraiser based on an analysis of all available information. Simple averaging does not always lead to an accurate result, and furthermore, it is not always necessary to choose a single number as an indicator of value. Using a range of values ​​is more correct.

To apply the method of comparing market analogues, it is necessary to collect data on ten two-room apartments for sale in the Zaeltsovsky district (“Siberian Fair, Botanical Garden”). Data on similar apartments are presented in the table in Table 1 in Appendix 2.

Each of the ten presented apartments must be characterized by the coefficients of the cost method and the results summarized in a table.

The coefficient of the ratio of the total and living area of ​​the apartment Ksozh - takes into account the ratio of the total area of ​​​​the apartment and its living area. Taken equal to:

0.95 – ratio less than 1.50

1.00 – ratio from 1.50 to 1.66

1.05 – ratio from 1.66 to 2.00

1.10 - over 2.00.

Coefficient of availability of a balcony or loggia Kbl:

If there is a balcony, this coefficient is 1.00;

If there is a loggia – 1.05;

In their absence – 0.95;

if there are two or more balconies or loggias - 1.10.

The Kat floor coefficient, if the apartment is located on the first or last floor of the building, is 0.90. In all other cases – 1.00.

The insulation coefficient of Keyes rooms is assumed to be equal to:

1.04 - all rooms are isolated;

0.96 - adjacent rooms in two-room apartments, or more than one walk-through room in 3-6 room apartments;

1.00 - in all other cases.

The availability coefficient of the Clif elevator is assumed to be equal to:

1.03 – there is an elevator in houses with 5 or fewer floors;

1.00 - there is an elevator in houses with more than 5 floors, or not in houses with 5 or less floors;

0.97 – there is no elevator in houses with more than 5 floors.

The room height coefficient Kvys is equal to:

0.98 – room height less than 2.5 m;

1.00 – room height from 2.50 m to 2.80 m;

1.02 – height of premises from 2.80 m to 3.00 m;

1.04 - room height from 3.00 to 3.40 m;

1.06 - height of premises over 3.40 m.

The coefficient of presence of a garbage chute K mus is assumed to be equal to:

1.02 - found in houses with less than 5 floors;

0.97 - not in houses with more than 5 floors;

1.00 – in other cases.

Coefficient taking into account the kitchen area Kk:

0.95 - with a kitchen area of ​​up to 6 square meters. m;

1.00 - with an area of ​​6 sq.m. m up to 9 sq. m

1.02 - with an area of ​​9 sq.m. m up to 12 sq. m;

1.10 - over 12 sq. m.

The values ​​of the coefficients for each property are presented in Table 2 in Appendix 2. The equivalent cost of a two-room apartment, calculated in Table 2, is the cost of a two-room apartment in a five-story building with a ratio of total to living area from 1.5 to 1.66, with a balcony, on the middle floor, ceiling height more than 2.5 m, no garbage chute, kitchen area from 6 to 9 m.

By multiplying the arithmetic average cost for ten apartments by the total area of ​​the appraised apartment and dividing by the correction factors for the appraised apartment, we obtain the real market price of the apartment, which will be 2410714:

54 thousand rubles. * 42 / (1.0 * 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.96 * 1.0 * 0.98 * 1.0 * 1.0) =

Thus, as a result of evaluating the property under study using the comparative method, it was found that the market price of a two-room apartment is 2,410,714 rubles.

2.4 Valuation of real estate using the cost approach

According to the cost approach, the value of a property is determined by the amount of resources spent on its reproduction or replacement, taking into account physical and moral wear and tear.

It is quite difficult to estimate the cost of an apartment using a cost approach, since it is quite difficult to estimate the costs of building one apartment and highlighting their costs for the construction of a residential building as a whole.

We will estimate the cost of the object using the cost approach under the assumption that the costs of building a house are distributed proportionally to the total area of ​​the apartments. This assumption is conditional, but, nevertheless, it will allow us to obtain an approximate estimate of the cost of the apartment using a cost approach.

Thus, it is known that the construction company Promstroy-D LLC plans to build a residential building on the street. Airport (in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk, in close proximity to the house in which the subject of assessment is located). Promstroy-D LLC received the right to design and build this house on a plot with a total area of ​​3 thousand 298 square meters. m. The assessment of the market value of the land plot and the costs of constructing a residential building at the request of the investor was carried out by Praktika LLC. According to pre-design documentation, the total usable area of ​​apartments in a 5-story building will be 3 thousand 262 square meters. m. The residential building will include 75 apartments.

According to experts from Praktika LLC, the cost of building a house will be 10 million 640 thousand rubles. In this case, the construction costs are 1 sq. m of total area will be 3261.8 rubles.

The total area of ​​the assessed property is 42 square meters. m. Thus, in accordance with the cost approach, the cost of restoring the facility will be 136,995.6 rubles. (RUB 3,261.8 * 42 sq. m).

Replacement cost should be determined taking into account accumulated depreciation. The useful life of a residential building is 40 years. The depreciation period for the assessed object is 30 years. Thus, when assessing, it is necessary to take into account 10/40 of the replacement cost of the object.

Estimating the cost of an object using the cost approach will be:

136995.6 rub. * 10 / 40 = 34248.9 rub.

2.5 Coordination of residential real estate assessment results

To evaluate a residential property - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - methods of income and comparative approaches were used, which yielded the following results:

1. According to the method of comparing sales of analogues, the cost of the object is 2,410,714 rubles.

2. As part of the income approach:

3. In accordance with the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34248.9 rubles.

Determining liquidation value is quite rare in Russian valuation practice, which affects the low level of methodological support for this type of valuation.

The only factor that influences the liquidation value and distinguishes it from the market value is the “forced sale” factor, which is typical for non-market conditions for the sale of real estate.

Thus, it becomes quite obvious that to calculate the liquidation value in the current Russian conditions, it is possible to use the following equation:

Slick. = Sryn. x (1 - Kvyn.),

Where's Slick? - liquidation value of real estate;

Sryn. - market value of the object under study;

Kvyn. - adjustment for forced sale, provided 0< Квын. < 1.

According to the above equation, the liquidation value is calculated in two stages. At the first stage, the market value of the property under study is determined. At the second stage, the amount of the adjustment adjustment for forced sale is calculated and included in the value of the market value, that is, the market value is adjusted for the factor of “forced sale” (for non-market conditions of sale).

If calculating the market value of real estate does not cause difficulties, then determining the adjustment allowance for forced sale and its mathematical justification raises many questions. In practice, appraisers intuitively accept it in the range from 0.1 to 0.3 (10 - 30% of the market value).

Thus, in the case of an adjustment factor of 10%, the liquidation value of a residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rub. x (1 – 0.1) = 2169642.6 rub.

If the adjustment factor is 30%, the liquidation value of the residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rub. x (1 – 0.3) = 1687499.8 rub.

So, in general, we can conclude that the liquidation value of the property will be from 70 to 90% of its market value and will fluctuate in the range of 1687499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

Thus, it is clear that the price of the apartment in the four options turned out to be different. To determine which price most accurately reflects the value of an object, you need to know the purpose of the valuation, since the purpose of the valuation determines the choice of determining the value.

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the value of an object purchased for the purpose of making a profit in the form of periodic income with subsequent sale, then you should focus on the figure obtained in the income method (RUB 1,327,118.6 - RUB 1,346,178)

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the real market value of the object, and there is sufficient information on the sales prices of similar objects, then the value of the apartment should be taken as the figure obtained by comparing market analogues (RUB 2,410,714).

If the purpose of the appraisal is to determine the value of the apartment, which serves as collateral when obtaining a mortgage loan, then the liquidation value is the most adequate, since the sale of the appraised object in the event of non-fulfillment of the loan agreement must be ensured in a fairly short time. Thus, the value of the property should be taken to be in the range of 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles. up to 216942.6 thousand rubles.

CHAPTER 3. PROPOSALS FOR IMPROVING METHODS OF REAL ESTATE ASSESSMENT

residential property valuation

In general, the first chapter is devoted largely to the theoretical foundations and basic categories associated with real estate valuation.

The second chapter of the work presents the results of assessing a property from the perspective of three approaches to determining market value: assessment from the point of view of costs (cost approach), assessment by direct comparison of sales (comparative approach), assessment from the point of view of expected or actual income (income approach) .

When comparing the evaluation results, it was revealed that all approaches give different results. Let us consider the main directions for improving the presented approaches to real estate valuation.

In modern valuation practice, the technology of calculating replacement cost using collections of UPVS is often used. The use of these collections began in 1997, when there was practically no market information on real estate, and the use of these collections was the only way to determine the “market value”, mainly for the purposes of revaluation of fixed assets. In the last decade there have been major changes in the information support of the real estate market and estimating business. The State Construction Committee of the Russian Federation has switched to a new costing and regulatory framework. By Decree of the Gosstroy of Russia No. 16 dated April 8, 2002 “On measures to complete the transition to a new estimated and normative base for pricing in construction,” the regulatory documents of the USSR Gosstroy, drawn up at the price level provided for by the estimate and normative bases of 1991, were canceled from 01.01.2003. and 1984. To replace them, state elemental estimate norms (GESN) and federal unit prices (FER) are introduced. The State Construction Committee of Russia approved and put into effect:

· GESNr-2001 "State elemental estimate standards for repair and construction work";

· GESN-2001 "State elemental estimate standards for general construction work";

GESNm-2001 "State elemental estimate standards for installation of equipment"

GESNs are designed to determine the composition and need for resources necessary to carry out construction work at sites, draw up estimates using the resource method, as well as for payments for work performed and write-off of materials.

Gosstroy of Russia is developing Federal unit prices (FER, FERr and FERm) only for the Moscow region. Next, prices for the Moscow region are transferred by Gosstroy to the Regional Centers for Pricing in Construction to link prices to regional conditions. After linking, price collections are sent back to Gosstroy for further approval. Currently, the process of developing a new regulatory framework has not yet been completed. Conducting a real estate valuation based on the new regulatory framework is a very complex and time-consuming task that requires special knowledge and skills. In order for the new regulatory framework to enter into valuation practice, it is necessary to carry out a set of works to develop software and computing systems adapted to solve applied problems of real estate valuation.

Recently, regional centers for pricing in construction have begun to actively work, and firms have appeared that specialize in providing information services, for example, the NPF Center for Information Technologies in Construction.

And only real estate appraisers still use long-outdated collections from the 70s of the last century and, at the same time, use them to justify the “market value” of objects. Experienced appraisers have long understood the disadvantages of using UPVS collections, associated primarily with the list of costs included in unit prices, average indexation, non-compliance of technologies, the ratio of the scope of work, etc.

Thus, the following cost items are taken into account in the UPVS collections:

· direct costs;

· overhead costs;

· planned savings (profit);

· general site expenses for the allocation and development of a construction site;

· cost of design and survey work;

· costs associated with carrying out work in winter;

· costs of bonus wages;

· the cost of maintaining the management of a standing enterprise;

· losses from the liquidation of temporary buildings and structures;

· costs of transporting workers over a distance of more than 3 km. in the absence of public transport;

· expenses for paying employees bonuses for the mobile nature of work.

Experienced appraisers use their own developments in their calculations based on adjustments to analogues or enlarged estimates.

In the work of P.G. Grabovoy, S.P. Korostelev “Property Valuation, Part I. Real Estate Valuation”, using a specific example, it is shown that the results of calculating the replacement cost of residential real estate using the UPVS methodology differ significantly, several times, from market indicators.

However, in the majority of reports reviewed by the Expert Council of the Russian Society of Appraisers, the assessment of the market value of real estate is still based on outdated UPVS. Moreover, in order to somehow bring the results of these calculations closer to market indicators, a certain increasing coefficient is introduced into them, which is called “entrepreneur’s profit.” It is adopted absolutely arbitrarily, since it is not possible to remove this indicator from the market in modern conditions. It should be particularly noted here that, in accordance with IVS 2003, “the application of market value requires the development of a valuation conclusion solely on the basis of market data.” When applying the UPVS, the appraiser clearly determines the non-market value, which must be reflected in the report.

In Russia there is still no reliable information base on the aggregated basic indicators of construction costs, which are available to Western appraisers (following the example of WESSEXS, LAXTONS, R.S.MEANS).

Currently, the main recognized information base for real estate valuation is the development of Co-Invest LLC. This company publishes quarterly the bulletin "Price Indices in Construction", as well as the series "Appraiser's Handbook": "Industrial Buildings", "Residential Buildings", "Collections of purchasing power parities of currencies in national construction markets", "Directory of the replacement cost of buildings and structures in current price level" etc.

When using these publications, it is necessary to remember that most of their calculations are based on the regulatory framework of the times of the planned economy, indexed by certain price coefficients and, therefore, the final assessment results may have a significant error for the reasons stated above. When using certain indices, it is necessary to carefully study the prerequisites for their calculation.

The Regional Directory of Construction Costs (RCC-2006) was recently published and announced as the first in the country expected by appraisers. It contains cost indicators by type of construction work, aggregated cost indicators (UCI) and “information for assessing the required volume of investment in the express version.” In fact, the latter definition refers to the estimated cost of analogues of modern buildings and structures. Part III of the RSS contains “analogue objects with technical and economic indicators of structural elements, analogue objects with technical and economic indicators for the object as a whole and a summary table of technical and economic indicators recommended for determining the cost of residential buildings and socio-cultural objects.” Cost indicators are determined in prices as of 01/01/2006 for the “Moscow region”. The directory includes cost indicators for 18 types of modern residential buildings and 27 non-residential real estate objects. In RSS-2007, this list of objects has been significantly expanded.

The publication of the RSS creates conditions for its use in real estate and business valuation procedures. If in real estate valuation it is possible to use part II of the reference book “Aggregated indicators of value”, then in the cost approach of business valuation it is possible to use part III “Analogous objects of buildings and structures”.

Thus, RCC collections should become the basic basis for real estate valuation. However, there are also significant shortcomings of these collections. The main one is that they do not provide the initial data and basic assumptions of the obtained values ​​of the cost of analogues. Thus, it is not entirely clear what exactly the composition of the equipment was taken into account in the final figures, what was included in the developer’s other costs, etc. The joint work of estimators, analysts and appraisers in the direction of improving the RSS can lead to the creation of an information base that is so necessary for real estate appraisers.

The main direction of development of appraisal activities is currently the assessment of the market value of real estate. This becomes possible due to the fact that in our country a database is being accumulated on the actual market value of real estate.

In order to simplify the process of assessing residential real estate, appraisal agencies can use a regression model of the cost of an apartment, which allows you to calculate the cost of a residential property depending on a number of its parameters.

An example of constructing such a model is given in the Real Estate magazine for December 2005. The model was built according to the price lists of several real estate companies that sell housing of varying consumer characteristics in different areas of the city of Novosibirsk. For the analysis, information was collected on 450 apartments (150 options for each type of apartment - one-, two-, three-room) according to the following parameters:

The cost of the apartment,

The area in which the housing is located

Property type:

public housing,

Housing purchased under a privatization agreement

Housing purchased under a purchase and sale agreement,

Material of the building in which the apartment is located:

Panel, brick, monolith,

House type:

Elite,

Improved layout

Typical

Full size,

- “Khrushchevka”,

Floors of the house,

The floor on which the apartment is located

Total area of ​​the apartment,

Living area of ​​the apartment,

Kitchen area,

The presence of a balcony or loggia,

Availability of a telephone.

Let us consider in detail the procedure for constructing the model using the example of one-room apartments.

At the first stage of building the model, the matrix of correlation coefficients was analyzed in order to identify parameters that were highly dependent on each other. The main task was to select factors for which the correlation coefficient would not exceed 0.8. Based on the results of the analysis, a matrix of correlation coefficients was constructed, which takes into account 6 factors, that is, exactly half of those initially collected, since the remaining factors did not satisfy the condition imposed on the correlation coefficient.

Based on the collected data on the selected factors, the following regression model was built:

P = -10.12 + 9.24 Stotal + 35.62 * x1 – 21.17 * x2 + 15.07 * x3 +

65 * x4+ 64.48 * x5 (3.1)

or in general:

Ρ= -a0 + asStot+ a1x1 + axg + a3x3 + a4x4 + a5x5 (3.2)

The following notation is used in the equation presented:

Ρ is the price of an apartment with fixed parameters defined below,

Stotal - total area of ​​the apartment,

x1 is a dummy variable characterizing the area in which the apartment is located,

x2 is a dummy variable characterizing the material of the building in which the apartment is located;

x3 is a variable characterizing the number of storeys of the building in which the apartment being assessed is located;

x4 is a dummy variable characterizing the floor on which the apartment is located;

x5 is a dummy variable characterizing the presence of a telephone in the apartment.

Statistical indicators for this model confirmed the significance of the results obtained.

Thus, the resulting model very well reflects the dependence of the average cost of apartments on its parameters in the housing market of the city of Novosibirsk (without taking into account extreme options).

The presented models were put into practice in the real estate agencies of the city of Novosibirsk "Zhilfond" and "Amir - Real Estate", which have full-time employees assessing the cost of apartments coming for sale, as well as acting as collateral in lending agreements. It should be noted that experts highly appreciated the effectiveness of their use.

The second important problem that appraisers face is predicting the value of an apartment in the future. This problem becomes especially relevant when assessing the cost of an apartment for mortgage purposes, since the sale of the apartment will occur in the future, and it is important to determine the growth rate of the cost of the apartment for the period of the loan agreement.

The initial data for constructing a model of price dynamics on the secondary housing market were taken from Real Estate magazines for the quarters of the corresponding years. For each year, information was collected on 240 apartments - 80 for each type of apartment (one-, two-, three-room). . The main purpose of building a model is to determine the model of price changes for secondary market real estate.

The structure of the collected data on apartments is presented in Fig. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3.

Rice. 2.1. Structure of apartments considered when constructing the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.2. Structure of apartments considered when constructing the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.3. Structure of apartments considered when constructing the model, by type of building material

Temporal analysis of economic phenomena distinguishes different types of evolutions.

1. Tendency, tendency or long-term movement. There is no strict definition of a trend; it is identified intuitively. A trend corresponds to a slow change occurring in a specific direction that persists over a long period of time.

2. Cycle, short-term component - fast quasiperiodic movement, in which there is an increasing phase and a decreasing phase.

3. Seasonal component - changes that occur regularly, as opposed to a cycle.

4. Random fluctuations, effects - random movement of relatively high frequency, having a more or less constant character.

Some statistical series represent in their pure form one or another type of evolution, but most are a combination of all or individual components.

Theoretically, a price dynamics series is a combination of a trend, a seasonal component and random fluctuations. At the present stage of development of the real estate market, the seasonal component of the price of an apartment has been disrupted, which is due to high rates of price growth and the investment attractiveness of the market in question. That is why special attention was paid to identifying the trend in the time series under consideration.

Based on these series of apartment price dynamics, the following model was built.

Polynomial of the second degree:

уi = а + bt2, (3.3)

where i is the type of apartment,

t - time period.

It should be noted that in accordance with the criteria used in statistics, the correlation coefficient should be close to 1 (exceed 0.7), the significance coefficient F should be less than 0.03 (for the given model parameters).

So, the resulting models well reflect the dynamics of prices on the secondary housing market of the city of Novosibirsk.

According to the resulting model, the increase in the cost of one-room apartments should have been 22.0% in 2006, the actual increase in cost was 24.3%.

According to this model, the increase in the cost of a two-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 should have been 21.7%, but in fact the growth rate was 21.6%.

In accordance with the presented model, the increase in the cost of a three-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 should have been 21.5%, but in fact the growth rate was 31.0%.

Substituting real data on the cost per square meter of apartments in the city of Novosibirsk in each quarter of 2006, it can be noted that this value falls within the boundaries of the confidence intervals constructed using the model.

According to experts, the resulting model adequately describes the current situation in the real estate market. The forecast for the growth in housing costs by the end of 2006 for certain types of apartments coincides with real data, since the market growth predicted by experts is 20 - 30%.

An appraiser is constantly faced with the problem of predicting the cost of apartments; this problem is especially acute when conducting appraisals for lending purposes. The correctness of the decision depends on the experience, qualifications of the specialist, as well as on the quality of the collected data on the market of the object being assessed. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of assessment of residential real estate.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn.

There are three possible approaches to assessing real estate.

The income approach consists of determining the value of the property being valued based on the amount of income that it can generate in the future, and is most often used to evaluate commercial real estate.

The cost approach determines the cost based on the costs of constructing a similar object (cost of materials, transportation costs, etc.), and is based on the fact that the value of the object being assessed cannot be higher.

The method of comparing sales (comparative approach) consists of searching for analogues that are closest to the object being valued and making adjustments to their value that take into account the existing differences between them and the object being valued. This approach is the main one when assessing residential real estate, since there is a sufficient number of offers for the sale of residential premises on the market for a correct assessment.

The purpose of the assessment presented in the practical part of the work was to determine the market value of an apartment consisting of two living rooms located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk

To evaluate a residential property - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - methods of income, cost and comparative approaches were used, which yielded the following results.

According to the method of comparing market analogues, the cost of the object is 2,410,714 rubles.

As part of the income approach:

Using the direct capitalization method, the cost of the apartment will be 1,327,118.6 rubles;

Using the method of discounting future income - 1,346,178 rubles.

According to the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34,248.9 rubles.

In accordance with the methodology for determining the liquidation value of an object, the cost of a two-room apartment in the Zaeltsovsky district will range from 1687499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

Improving the cost approach to the valuation of residential real estate consists of developing documents and collections that reflect the real costs of constructing similar objects, since the regulatory collections used by appraisers in the course of their work were published in the 70s. last century and are long outdated, and the correction factors used in these approaches are not justified in any way.

The main direction for improving market approaches to valuation is the use of statistical models in the process of assessing the value of real estate.

The paper presents examples of a model for determining the value of a property based on a number of its qualitative characteristics, as well as a statistical model for predicting the value of a property after a certain period of time. It should be noted that this problem is especially relevant in the case of real estate valuation for lending purposes, since in this case the sale of the property occurs some time after the valuation. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of assessment of residential real estate.

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Annex 1

APARTMENT LAYOUT

LOCATION IN THE ENTRANCE

Appendix 2

Information on the sale of apartments similar to the property being assessed in January 2006

No.	Street	House type	Floor/number of floors	Total/living area	Kitchen	Balcony/loggia	Telephone	Isolated / adjoining rooms	Cost, thousand rubles.	Cost of 1 sq. m., thousand rub.
1	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	39/26	5,5	B	+	cm	2450	62,8
2	Dacha	Π	2/5	40/28	6	B	+	from	2200	55
3	Dm. Donskoy	Π	3/5	42/28	6,5	B	+	cm	2100	50
4	Dacha	Π	4/5	40/26	6	B	+	cm	2150	53,8
5	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	41/28	5,5	B	+	from	2650	64,6
6	Zhukovsky	P	4/5	44/28	6	B	+	cm	2350	53,4
7	Spring	P	3/5	43/29	6,5	B	+	cm	2400	55,9
8	Dacha	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	2300	54,8
9	Dacha	P	2/5	40/26	5,5	B	+	from	2150	53,8
10	Dm. Donskoy	P	3/5	44/29	6	B	+	cm	2100	47,7
11	Object being assessed	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	-	-

Determination of the value of real estate objects taking into account correction factors

№	Xozh	Kbl	Kat	Keys	Clif	Kvys	Kmus	Kk	Cost of 1 sq. m		Equiv. We're standing.
1	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	62,8		55,9
2	0,95	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55		55,7
3	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	50		54,6
4	1,0	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,8		55
5	1,0	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	64,6		53,6
6	0,95	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,4		53,2
7	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55,9		53,7
8	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	54,8		53,3
9	1,00	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	53,8		54,1
10	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	47,7		50,5
Arithmetic mean									55,9	54