Balance of migration, or mechanical population growth, is one of the most widely used indicators in statistics. It refers to the so-called absolute indicators, which depend on the total number of residents living in a certain region.

Types of migration indicators

Let's consider what the absolute indicators of population migration are:

• number of arrivals (to region, locality, region) (P);
• number of departed (B);
• migration balance (or net) (MS);
• migration volume, or gross, or turnover (MO).

Mechanical population growth

The migration balance is calculated as the difference between arrivals and departures from a specific territory for a certain period. The formula for migration growth looks like this:

This value can be positive, negative or zero. In the first case they talk about population growth, in the second – about its decline.

A distinction is made between the balance of external and internal migration, as well as the movements of certain groups according to any criterion: rural and urban residents, men and women, people of different nationalities.

If it is known what the total population growth and its natural increase (due to births and deaths) are, the mechanical increase can be calculated as the difference between the first and the second.

Volume of migration

The migration volume formula is calculated as the sum of people who arrived and left a certain territory and characterizes the total flow of migrants:

All these indicators are specific numbers that depend on the population of the area, and therefore cannot give a complete picture of what is happening, that is, an idea of ​​​​the intensity of the processes. Therefore, relative characteristics, such as the migration rate, are also needed.

Migration indicators: video

Relative migration rates

There are general and specific coefficients, as well as indices of the relative intensity of movements for individual groups:

• The arrival rate shows the number of arrivals for every thousand people living in a region in one year:

Kpr = (P/N)x1000

where N is the average annual number of people living in a given territory;

• The departure rate shows how many people have left for every thousand residents in a year:

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Cube = (W/N)x1000;

• migration turnover coefficient:

Kmo = ((P + V)/N)x1000;

• migration balance coefficient:

Kms = ((P – V)/N)x1000;

• migration efficiency coefficient – ​​ratio of balance to turnover as a percentage:

Cam = ((P -V)/(P + V))x100;

• relative migration balance - the ratio of the number of arrivals to the number of departures as a percentage:

MCo = (P/V)x100.

Having made calculations for various groups of residents (age, gender, nationality), we obtain specific characteristics.

You can also calculate averages over several years: this is done in order to avoid random deviations in values. To calculate in this case, average absolute indicators and data on the number of residents for the required period are taken.

To have an idea of ​​what share individual groups occupy in the total number of arrivals or departures, relative intensity indices are calculated for them.

When talking about indicators of statistics on external migration of the population, they use the words “emigration”, “immigration”, and also make calculations for a separate group - labor migrants.

Analysis of such characteristics as the balance of total and labor emigration allows us to see which countries and where labor flows are coming from. And this, in turn, is important for the formation of an adequate immigration policy and labor management.

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Migration – movement of people across the borders of territories with a change of place of residence permanently or for a certain time.

The movement of population within a country is called internal migration, and the movement of population from one country to another - external.

Gross migration (gross migration) or migration turnover	Shows the total number of migrating residents (P + V).
Balance of migration or mechanical increase	Difference between the number of arrivals and departures: (R – V)
Arrival rate
Attrition rate
Mechanical growth rate (migration intensity) of the population	or TO fur pr = K incoming – -TO select
Migration turnover intensity coefficient	Characterizes the frequency of cases of change of residence in the population over a certain period
Migration efficiency ratio
General population growth rate	TO generally = K eat.pr + K mech.pr

Typical problem 2

The mechanical movement of the population of the region is characterized by the following data.

The average annual population is 146,900 people.

Arrived in this region - 495 people.

216 people left the region.

Define:

migration increase;

volume of migration;

arrival rate;

attrition rate;

general migration intensity coefficient;

migration turnover intensity coefficient;

migration efficiency coefficient.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1. Migration increase = 495 – 216 = 279 people.

2. Migration volume = 495+216=711 people.

3. Arrival rate: %o .

4. Attrition rate: %o .

5. General coefficient of migration intensity:

TO fur pr = K incoming – TO select= 3.36 – 1.47 = 1.89%o.

6. Migration turnover coefficient:

7. Migration efficiency ratio:

This region is experiencing population growth due to a positive balance of migration.

Typical problem 3

The country's population at the beginning of the year was 105,599.6 thousand people. During the year, 1311.604 thousand people were born, 2254.856 thousand people died. 2334.034 thousand people arrived for permanent residence in the country, 2252.253 thousand people left. The number of women aged 15 to 49 years was 39097.069 thousand people.

Based on the data above, calculate:

1) population at the end of the year;

2) average annual population;

3) general coefficients of natural and mechanical movement of the population;

4) Pokrovsky vitality coefficient;

5) special coefficient of fertility (fertility) of women;

6) prospective population size in 2 years.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1. Population at the end of the year:

S k.g = S n.g + N – M + P – V = 105599.6 + 1311.604 – 2254.856 + 2334.034 – 2252.253 = 104738.129 (thousand people)

2. Average annual population:

(thousand people)

3. General odds:

Fertility rate: %O ;

Death rate: %O ;

Rate of natural increase (decrease) of population:

Arrival rate: %o;

Attrition rate: %o;

Mechanical gain coefficient:

TO fur pr = K incoming - TO select= 22.20 – 21.42 = 0.78%o;

Migration efficiency ratio:

Total growth rate:

TO generally = K eat.pr + K mech.pr= -8.97 + 0.78 = -8.19%o.

4. Pokrovsky vitality coefficient:
.

5. Special female fertility rate:

Prospective population size in 2 years:

(thousand people).

From the data presented and obtained, it follows that the country is experiencing a natural population decline; the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, and migration processes do not compensate for the loss. Processes of population depopulation are observed, and the low fertility rate of women plays a large role in the current situation. Thus, after 2 years the predicted population will be less than the actual one.

Natural population movement is the change in population due to births and deaths.

The study of natural movement is carried out using absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute indicators

1. Number of births during the period(R)

2. Number of deaths during the period(U)

3. Natural increase (loss) population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths during the period: EP = P - U

Relative indicators

Among the indicators of population movement are: birth rate, death rate, natural increase rate and vitality rate.

All coefficients, except the vitality coefficient, are calculated in per mille, i.e. per 1000 population, and the vitality coefficient is determined as a percentage (i.e. per 100 population).

Total fertility rate

Shows how many people are born during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the current population

Overall mortality rate

Shows how many people die during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the current population and is determined by the formula:

Mortality rate in Russia (number of deaths per 1000 population) from 11.2 ppm in 1990 increased to 15.2 in 2006, and the birth rate decreased accordingly from 13.4 to 10.4 ppm in 2006.

High mortality is associated with a stable trend of increasing morbidity. In comparison, our ailments become chronic for 15-20 years. Hence mass disability and premature mortality.

Natural increase rate

Shows the amount of natural population growth (decrease) during a calendar year on average per 1000 people of the current population and is calculated in two ways:

Vitality factor

Shows the relationship between fertility and mortality, characterizes population reproduction. If the Vitality Coefficient is less than 100%, then the population of the region dies out; if it is above 100%, then the population increases. This coefficient is determined in two ways:

Special indicators

In demographic statistics, in addition to general coefficients, special indicators are also calculated:

Marriage rate

Shows how many marriages occur per 1000 people during a calendar year.

To marriage rate = (number of persons married / average annual population)*1000

Divorce rate

Shows how many divorces occur per thousand of the population during a calendar year. For example, in 2000 in Russia there were 6.2 marriages and 4.3 divorces for every 1000 people.

Divorce rate = (number of persons divorced per year / average annual population) * 1000

Infant death rate

It is calculated as the sum of two components (in ppm).

• The first is the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of one year from the generation born in this year, for which the coefficient is calculated, to the total number of births in this year.
• The second is the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of one year from the generation born in the previous year to the total number of births in the previous year.

In 2000, this figure in our country was 15.3‰.

To infant mortality = (number of children who died under the age of 1 year / number of live births per year) * 1000

Age-specific fertility rate

Shows the number of births on average per 1000 women of each age group

Special birth rate (fertility) rate

Shows the average number of births per 1000 women aged 15 to 49 years.

Age-specific mortality rate

Shows the average number of deaths per 1000 people in a given age group.

Total fertility rate

Depends on the age composition of the population and shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to during her life if the existing birth rate were maintained at each age.

Life expectancy at birth

One of the most important indicators calculated internationally. It shows the number of years that, on average, a person from the generation born would have to live, provided that throughout the life of this generation, age-sex mortality remains at the level of the year for which this indicator was calculated. It is calculated by compiling and analyzing mortality tables, in which the number of survivors and deaths is calculated for each generation.

Life expectancy at birth in 2000 in Russia was 65.3 years, including 59.0 for men; for women - 72.2 years.

Population reproduction efficiency coefficient

Shows the share of natural increase in the total population turnover

Migration- movement of people between separate territories associated with a permanent, temporary or seasonal change of place of residence.

Reasons for migrations:

• economic;
• political;
• national;
• religious.

Population migration- the leading cause of the most important changes that have occurred in the settlement of people on Earth over the past centuries.

The movement of population across a territory is called mechanical movement of the population or population migration. At the same time, a distinction is made between internal and external (outside the country) migration.

Internal migration

Internal migrations include movement of population from village to city, which in many countries is the source of urban growth (it is often called the “great migration of peoples of the 20th century.”). Territorial redistribution of the population also occurs between large and small cities. Both of these species are very widely represented, particularly in Russia.

Although internal migration is typical for all states, in different countries they are at different stages of development. In developing countries, flows of rural residents who do not have land and work rush to cities, and in the most developed countries, “reverse” migrations of the population predominate (from cities to the suburbs, and partly to the countryside).

External migration

Types of external migration:

• emigration - the departure of citizens from their country to another for permanent residence or a more or less long term
• immigration is the entry of citizens into another country for permanent residence or a more or less long term.

External migrations, which arose in ancient times, received their greatest development in the era of capitalism. In countries where external migrations of the population become widespread, they can have a significant impact on their numbers, for example in the USA, Canada, Australia, Israel. Currently, inland migration flows have increased. At the same time, it became especially widespread. This especially affected Western Europe, which from a center of emigration (existing for several centuries) turned into a center of attraction from 7 countries of the Mediterranean and Asia. Important centers of labor immigration are the United States and oil-producing countries in the Middle East.

In the second half of the 20th century. A new form of external migration has emerged, called “brain drain”. It first appeared after the Second World War, when several thousand scientists were exported from Germany to the United States. These days, along with the brain drain from Europe, there is an exodus from developing countries.

Study of population migration

Analysis of migration data shows where, from where and in what quantities population movements in the country occur.

Population migration is studied using absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute migration rates

1. Number of arrivals to this locality (P)

2. Number of people leaving from this locality (B)

3. Mechanical gain population (MP = P - V)

Relative migration rates

Relative indicators include the arrival rate, departure rate and mechanical increase rate.

The coefficients given below are calculated on a production basis, that is, per 1000 population.

Arrival rate

Shows how many people arrive in a given region on average per 1000 population during a calendar year:

Attrition rate

Shows how many people left a given region on average per 1000 population per year:

Mechanical gain coefficient

Characterizes the amount of mechanical growth occurring on average per 1000 people of the region’s population per year, and is calculated in two ways:

In 2000, 350,873 people arrived in Russia, and 160,763 people left the Russian Federation during the same year.

Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies patterns of quantitative changes in population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the size, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population changes, migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - gender, age, social status, education.

Objectives of population statistics:

study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition; analysis of reproduction and population dynamics; determination of the future size of the entire population and its individual contingents.

Population is the starting point for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for management, planning of economic and social development of the country. The size of a country is usually judged by its population.

The population is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to spatial movement of the population.

The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare, and population data is constantly required. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical authorities carry out the so-called current population assessment, i.e. carry out calculations based on the latest census data and current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.

There are two categories of population taken into account during population censuses: permanent settlement and existing population. The permanent population includes persons who usually live in a given locality, and the current population includes all persons who were in a given territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of whether they live here permanently or temporarily. To determine the size of the permanent population, the census process takes into account those temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are permanent residents of a given locality who have temporarily left it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the current population.

The resident population can be determined:

where is the current population;

– temporarily absent;

- temporary arrivals.

The average population indicator is of great importance in population statistics. Average population size can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population during the period of time being studied is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is determined as half the sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year.

,

where is the population at the beginning of the year;

– population at the end of the year.

If data is available for several dates that are equal to one another, the calculation can be made using the average chronological simple formula:

.

If the time distance between the dates is unequal, then the calculation is carried out using the arithmetic (chronological) weighted average formula:

To calculate population changes over time, dynamics indicators are calculated.

The population is the main material component of society and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.

For each individual country, the total population can change due to two factors:

natural movement (fertility and mortality); migration (mechanical) movement.

However, not only the total population size is changing, but also the composition.

Currently, statistics use four complementary sources of population data:

population census; current accounting of the natural movement of the population and its migration; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various population records.

Data from these sources is used for different purposes and cannot replace each other. However, there is a close connection between them: each source complements or continues the other.

The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. The population census during this process is carried out in populated areas at a certain point in time, which is called the critical moment.

When characterizing population dynamics, two circumstances must be taken into account:

1) you can compare the population of only one category (either permanent or existing);

2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the population data should be comparable in relation to the territory.

Total absolute population growth ():

or ,

where is natural growth;

– mechanical growth.

Wherein ;

,

where is the number of births;

– number of deaths;

– number of arrivals;

– number of people leaving.

Both general and natural, and migration growth can be positive or negative. Absolute increases are interval indicators; they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of greatest importance).

Population data is presented on a territorial basis (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) an indicator of physical population density, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area it occupies (the highest population density is 15,539 people per 1 km2 in Monaco).

One of the main characteristics of population distribution is its division into urban and rural. According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:

small – with a population of up to 50 thousand; average – 50-100 thousand; large – 100-250 thousand; large – 250-1 million; the largest - more than 1 million.

By studying fertility, mortality and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute sizes, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.

Relative indicators for these quantities, called coefficients, are also calculated.

Birth rate per 1000 people:

,

where is the number of births;

– average population size.

Mortality rate per 1000 people:

,

where M is the number of deaths.

Natural increase rate:

or equal to the difference between the birth rate and death rate:

.

Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky):

,

shows how many newborns there are per one deceased.

Infant mortality rate (Rats formula):

,

where – deaths under 1 year;

– born;

– born in the year preceding the current one.

The specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years):

The general fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate and the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population ():

,

Where .

Migration balance:

Total absolute increase: .

Mechanical population growth rate:

.

Total population growth rate:

or .

Vital statistics include marriage and divorce rates. Migration rates are also calculated. There is a distinction between immigration and emigration. Migration indicators are the number of arrivals to a given locality, those leaving and the difference between them - the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in numbers, is determined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.

Labor resources are the part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:

working age population; working-age population of working age; labor resources.

The size of a country's labor force is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.

Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.

To characterize the age structure of the population from the point of view of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of persons under working age, working age and over working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

The working-age population is a set of people capable of working due to age and health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men – 16-59 years; for women – 16 – 54. The rest of the population is considered disabled according to age. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.

Not all of the working age population is capable of working. Therefore, it is divided into the working population and the non-working population of working age. Students of working age, off-the-job studies at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include a part of the population engaged in childcare and other reasons in their households).

The second group includes the working age population with disability groups I and II and persons receiving pensions on preferential terms.

The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.

Based on these population groups, two working capacity coefficients are determined:

the entire population; working age population.

Working capacity rate of the entire population:

,

where is the working-age population of working age;

- the entire population.

Working capacity coefficient of the working age population:

,

where is the working age population.

Pension load factor:

,

where is the population of retirement age.

Labor replacement rate:

,

where is the population of pre-working age.

The total load coefficient (age economy coefficient) reflects the degree of load of the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages:

or .

In addition to the working population, the employed population includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups), working teenagers under 16 years of age.

To characterize changes in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of its change, absolute growth, growth rate and growth rate of labor resources are calculated.

The change in the number of labor resources from one date to another within a year is called the movement of labor resources. There are natural and mechanical movement of labor resources.

Natural movement consists of the replenishment of potential labor resources due to the transition of the younger generation to working age (15-16) and their loss due to:

some people going beyond working age; transition to disability and pension on preferential terms; of death.

With mechanical movement, replenishment occurs due to immigration, and loss occurs due to emigration of the population.

The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and end of the year, taking into account and without taking into account the balance of migration. the difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year represents absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, the coefficient of natural increase () is calculated:

; ,

where is the coefficient of natural replenishment;

– coefficient of natural disposal;

– average annual number of labor resources.

Natural replenishment coefficient:

,

where is natural replenishment.

Natural disposal rate:

,

where is natural disposal.

Then the coefficient of natural increase:

An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - the vacancy rate:

,

where is the declared number of required labor force;

– average number of personnel of the enterprise.

Intensity level of expected labor release:

.

Unemployment rate:

Important for the Republic of Belarus and its regions are indicators characterizing the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

Control questions

How to determine the average annual population? How to find absolute population growth over a year? How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient? How to determine the specific fertility rate? Labor resources, main categories. How to calculate the pension burden ratio of the population?