Russian ruble: history of confiscations and devaluations. Manual devaluation will begin in February. If the ruble depreciates, what will happen?

Despite the fact that not every citizen monitors the economic situation in the country, one question worries many. And this question: will there be a devaluation of the ruble in 2019 in Russia. And this is no coincidence: the depreciation of the national currency seriously affects many areas of life. Prices for food and equipment are rising, pensions and other payments are being frozen, and the overall standard of living is declining.

Briefly about devaluation

Devaluation as a term is used to establish the official decline of a national currency in relation to “hard currencies”. Those. to currencies for which there are no restrictions on sale or purchase.

Devaluation can be open, hidden or market. The first involves the withdrawal of depreciated banknotes from circulation and their exchange for hard currency. In the second case, the devalued currency continues to remain in circulation, and pressure from economic factors leads to devaluation.

Devaluation can also be smooth and galloping. In the first case, the exchange rate of the national currency decreases gradually and, in general, not so noticeably. People, knowing about this behavior of the ruble, can always prepare and “spread straws.” In the second case, the depreciation occurs sharply and significantly. Usually, after the second scenario, it is almost impossible to restore the previous course.

Types of devaluation are combined in the table for clarity:

Sign	Type of devaluation	Characteristic
type	open	withdrawal of worthless money from circulation
hidden	devalued currency remains in circulation
nature of manifestation	smooth	gradual depreciation
galloping	sharp decline in the national currency

In the following video you can find out what to do if the ruble is devalued:

What to expect in Russia: risk factors and expert opinions

Not only ordinary citizens, but also economists are concerned about such a pressing issue. Moreover, there are prerequisites for pessimistic forecasts, including unstable oil pricing policies and the introduction of sanctions against Russia.

Somewhat contradictory. Factors that influence both the depreciation of the Russian ruble and its stabilization are considered. Therefore, we can talk about accurate forecasts only after a detailed study of the state of the economy in conjunction with possible risk factors.

The main risk factors that can show how much devaluation of money is really possible include:

outflow of foreign currency;
inflation;
balance of payments deficit;
reduction in export costs;
instability of the economic situation.

At the same time, the main factors, according to experts for 2018-2019, that could contribute to the devaluation of the ruble are:

Decrease in gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Limited access to foreign capital due to anti-Russian sanctions and other economic restrictions.
Increased demand for foreign currency due to the growing interest in investing capital abroad.
Level reduction due to .
A panicky mood in society, which leads to the withdrawal of deposits from accounts and early termination of time deposits.

Despite the improving economic situation in Russia, experts do not rule out another devaluation of the ruble in 2019. The main risk factor for the Russian currency remains the fall in oil prices. Also, devaluation processes can be provoked by the expansion of sanctions. In addition, the government can use exchange rate changes to increase economic growth and increase fiscal revenues.

If you believe the social-economic development strategy of the Russian Federation, in 2019-2020 the ruble should weaken to 68-69 rubles. for 1$.

Economic forces

At the end of 2017, the domestic economy coped with the negative consequences of the crisis:

GDP growth has recovered;
the ruble regained lost ground;
inflation has slowed;
the budget deficit has decreased;
The increase in real incomes of the population has recovered.

The pessimistic scenario for 2019 includes a combination of two negative factors:

Falling oil prices.
Expansion of Western sanctions to key sectors of the economy.

Despite the resumption of positive dynamics, experts note the lack of changes in the current economic model. The main source of state budget revenue remains the export of energy resources. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices lead to cyclical changes in macroeconomic indicators.

The Russian economy was able to overcome the crisis not by increasing productivity, but by increasing the price of “black gold.” The cost of a barrel increased to 70-75 dollars, which became the key to improving macro indicators. As a result, the further dynamics of oil prices will determine whether there will be a devaluation of the ruble in 2019.

In the medium term, the cost of a barrel has significant potential for decline, analysts say. The following factors will contribute to this trend:

Activation of oil production in the USA.
Trade wars between the USA and China.
Refusal to extend oil production quotas for 2019.

In such conditions, the cost of a barrel may drop to $60, which will lead to a new period of weakening of the domestic currency. Another factor of uncertainty remains the geopolitical situation.

Geopolitical uncertainty

Investors are reacting painfully to rising geopolitical tensions and the expansion of the sanctions regime. At the same time, the reduction in the Central Bank rate is reflected in a decrease in profitability, which accelerates capital outflow. In addition, sanctions pose threats to the stability of the financial system.

The pessimistic forecast for the ruble for 2019, which assumes a significant devaluation, provides for the expansion of sanctions to key sectors of the Russian economy. The example of Rusal demonstrated the vulnerability of Russian export-oriented companies to new Western restrictions.

Further escalation of the confrontation with the West could lead to sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex. This sector depends on financial and technological cooperation with developed countries, without which the energy complex will not be able to continue sustainable development.

Also, new restrictions could hit the banking sector, leading to destabilization of financial markets. In addition, tougher sanctions may affect defense industry enterprises.

In addition to external factors, the devaluation of the Russian currency may be associated with weak economic growth and a lack of funds in the state budget.

Growing pains

Next year, the government plans to increase domestic GDP to 100 trillion rubles, which is 8 trillion more than in 2017. According to the authorities, the development of the Russian economy will be ensured through the following areas:

Increased labor productivity.
Development of the digital economy.
Growth of the manufacturing industry.

However, analysts doubt the effectiveness of these measures. Without reforms, the Russian economy will lose its competitive position. As a result, growth rates will be half that of global GDP.

The government can choose a simple way to speed up the economy - devalue the Russian currency. In this case, budget revenues in rubles will increase, which will help solve the problem of the budget deficit. At the same time, the authorities will easily increase GDP to 100 trillion.

Despite these factors, experts do not predict a significant devaluation in 2019 under the baseline scenario. However, a conservative forecast allows for a rapid decline in the value of the domestic currency.

Scale of devaluation

The dollar exchange rate will strengthen to 67-68 rubles/dollar in the near future, which will be facilitated by a correction in oil prices. Such scales of weakening will make it possible to compensate for the negative impact of external factors and ensure the target rates of economic growth.

As part of the optimistic forecast, the domestic currency will be able to avoid devaluation. For this to happen, the price of a barrel must remain above $75, but experts consider such a scenario unlikely. The oil market is still far from equilibrium; a sustainable increase in prices is possible no earlier than 2020. Starting from this period, the effect of reduced investment during the crisis will be felt, which will restrain oil production volumes.

Pessimists believe that the domestic currency will face a deeper devaluation. The total effect of lower prices for “black gold”, expansion of sanctions and slowdown in GDP growth will force the government to weaken the exchange rate to 72-75 rubles/dollar.

Look video with Katasonov’s forecast for the period 2017-2019:

The real effective exchange rate of the ruble in April 2017 increased by 2.5% against foreign currencies compared to the previous month. This is reported in the materials of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. However, what is the long-term forecast and should we be afraid of ruble devaluation in the near future? Experts interviewed by a Rosbalt correspondent spoke about this.

Stepan Demura, financial and stock analyst:

“No one will ask the authorities about devaluation. What does our authorities have to do with this? They have their own wishes and their own plans, but the market and the economy have their own. The devaluation will be powerful. My forecast is this. There will be 2-3 months of relative calm in our market. Maybe the ruble will even update its local maximum against the dollar, and then we will fly off singing and dancing. In 2017 we will see 97 rubles per dollar. This is just the beginning of the concert. Then 125 rubles, and by the end of 2019 we may see 500 rubles per dollar. Many people are afraid that they will give 70 rubles for a dollar - but there is nothing wrong with that. This is a normal correction. Oil prices are falling. We are now entering a powerful recession, compared to which what happened in 2007-2008 is nothing. The world indices have one short rise left. It might take a quarter, maybe five months. And then the most powerful collapse in the history of markets will begin, with all the consequences for the ruble. Nothing can be done now. We can “thank” Mrs. Nabiullina for her policy. But I'm full of optimism. This forecast may be considered pessimistic by those who do not understand anything about economics. And those who understand economics can make good money.”

Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

“I won’t give a forecast for the ruble. As Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson bequeathed: “Forecast everything, but not prices.” And the exchange rate is exactly the price that is given for one dollar. Will the ruble be devalued? Until the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is re-appointed in the State Duma, there is no need to remember any fluctuations in the ruble. Her candidacy has been submitted and approval is currently underway. When they approve it, then it will be possible to predict some changes. And today everything is quiet and calm, stable. Everything is aimed at maintaining a strong exchange rate and, most importantly, at achieving the required inflation rates. There may be fluctuations, but only within two rubles, 57-59 rubles per dollar. What happens after re-approval? I think that the situation will change in the direction of weakening.”

Vadim Zhartun, director of the consulting company Nova Team:

“Only a reckless or extremely careless person can give a short-term forecast of the ruble exchange rate. Several factors may influence the situation. On May 25, we expect the next OPEC summit, at which a decision will be made either to extend restrictions on oil production, or this restriction will be lifted. The summit is a very serious fork in the road. Apparently, the restriction will be extended. Because it's a good PR campaign. It always has a positive effect on the price of oil. But how strongly the market will react this time is unclear. It is possible that it is weaker than last time. However, this is a boost to oil prices. And the ruble is now fundamentally not tied to anything other than oil. Everything else is secondary in relation to the movement of oil prices.

I do not see the determination of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance to carry out any large-scale interventions. Because they also don’t know what will happen. Accordingly, they want to hold on to reserves. Purely theoretically, they could influence the ruble exchange rate within a fairly wide range for three months, six months, or a year. But I highly doubt they will do this. Because we can maintain a disequilibrium exchange rate with our reserves for twelve months, then these reserves will run out.

Another factor that introduces uncertainty is carry trade. If the exchange rate movement is excessively sharp, then foreign players will begin to withdraw money. This will cause an avalanche effect. It is also almost impossible to predict how serious the panic will develop. Giving a forecast for four months is a very big lottery. If we take into account that the most probable events will occur, and the next “black swan” will not arrive, then we can assume the following. Let’s say that at the next OPEC summit a decision is made to extend the regime of restrictions on oil production. Oil returns to the corridor of 50-55 dollars per barrel, and the ruble gradually devalues to 60-62 per dollar. But this is with the most favorable, most non-traumatic option of all possible. In practice, everything can turn out to be much more interesting. Summer is the period when traditionally, for many years in a row, with the exception of last year, oil prices have steadily fallen. The peak of the fall occurred in June-July. If suddenly this trend comes to life, then anything can happen.”

Lev Savulkin, chief specialist of the Leontief Center:

“Even if the authorities wanted to devalue the ruble, this is not always within their capabilities. You need to know the supply and demand for currency. Yes, currency depreciation can help the state fulfill budget obligations, but this requires conditions that depend on the prices of the main export goods - oil and gas. If oil and gas prices fall, then the ruble exchange rate will decline. It all depends on which direction the wind blows in the Central Bank’s sails. Naturally, the Central Bank is responsible for ensuring that inflation is targeted. He must exercise control, since too much of a fall in the ruble leads to higher prices. And of course, the Central Bank will be held accountable for this. The regulator clearly doesn’t want to be extreme.”

Andrey Movchan, head of the economic program at the Carnegie Moscow Center:

“An artificial devaluation of the ruble will hardly be possible. The Central Bank does not have such resources to create it. But natural, of course, it can be. We simply have no one to organize this devaluation. Well, let’s say if the Central Bank comes out with some crazy currency purchases. Again, what are crazy currency purchases? This means that rubles will appear on the market in large quantities. Where will these rubles go now? Who will the regulator buy this currency from? After all, he cannot skew the bank’s foreign exchange position. And no one in the country owns much currency now. This means that it will be necessary to buy it from foreigners. That is, the Central Bank is quite constrained. All it can do is try to issue very profitable ruble debt in large quantities. Relatively speaking, sell it for foreign currency. But these actions require coordination. All this cannot be done easily.”

Alexander Kalinin

The devaluation of the ruble, which has been steadily observed over the last quarter of a century, indicates that something is wrong in the country’s economy. Large territories, huge resources, powerful industry, technologies that make it possible to launch spaceships into space, build advanced military equipment - Russia had and still has all this. But there is no strong, stable currency that would allow the population not to keep their savings in dollars and euros. Or does it just seem that way?

The end of each calendar year is accompanied by a large number of forecasts for the coming calendar year. Among them, one of the first questions is about national and foreign currencies. Will there be a devaluation of the ruble in 2019? These were the topics of interviews with well-known financial experts in November-December 2018. There is a problem, the very process that can comprehend the national monetary unit of Russia worries citizens, and this is not accidental.

What is ruble devaluation? If we explain what this is in simple words, it is the depreciation of the national currency in relation to other currencies and the value of gold. For comparison, we take world currencies, including not only the dollar and the euro, but also over 1.5 dozen monetary units of other countries.

What does devaluation mean in simple terms? As a result of some political and economic processes, the demand for a particular currency falls, which is why the exchange rate of other currencies rises in relation to it. But it can also be the other way around, when the demand for other currencies increases, as a result of which their exchange rate rises, which means a fall in the ruble exchange rate against this background.

The opposite phenomenon, in which a currency rises, is called revaluation. For example, in the first half of 2018, a revaluation of the ruble was observed. At the same time, the dollar exchange rate dropped from 70 rubles. for 1$ to 56 for 1$.

But after the revaluation of the ruble in 2018, devaluation began, which led to the exchange rate of 65 rubles. for $1 and above, which showed a devaluation percentage of 15%. The exchange rate of the ruble against world currencies has dropped significantly.

The exchange rate of the domestic currency has devalued greatly over the past 100 years. If it were not for its periodic denomination, in the current century Russian citizens would have used bills worth billions and trillions of rubles. The denomination took place in 1922, 1947, 1961 and 1998.

When the last denomination was carried out, 1000 old rubles were equal to 1 new one.

It was carried out in January 1998 after some stabilization of the economic situation, but the 1998 crisis again forced the ruble to fall; the positive forecast a year ago did not come true.

What does the course depend on?

The reasons for what is happening should be sought not in conspiracy theories, but in the laws of economics. Countries such as the USA, Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain have very strong economies. They are less dependent on the export of raw materials than Russia.

Who benefits from currency depreciation?

But there is also a national regulator in the person of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Why doesn’t it include all the tools and levers to maintain the exchange rate of the domestic currency? And again, we need to discard any conspiracy theories claiming that agents of influence from the State Department have settled in the Russian Central Bank.

There is a completely economic explanation for these phenomena, including the threat of devaluation or its absence.

If the prices of export goods rise, the consequences are that more foreign currency enters the country. For settlements with the state, with workers, with public utilities, we need domestic currency. Therefore, the exporter is forced to exchange foreign currency earnings (part of it) for the national currency. A lot of foreign currency enters the domestic market, demand for it falls, it devalues, the ruble strengthens and increases its value.

This happened when oil prices rose - this happened until mid-2008 and 2014. But in both cases, the pessimistic forecast came true; the cost of hydrocarbons fell significantly, forcing the ruble to devalue. In this situation, less currency began to flow into the country. What does this mean?

If less currency comes into the country, the exporter will pay less contributions to the budget in terms of it. Moreover, if his payroll, rent, and utility costs remain at the same level, he may incur losses.

As a result, the enterprise will become bankrupt, close, an additional number of unemployed will be formed, consumer demand within the country will fall, triggering a crisis of overproduction.

There will be goods in warehouses, but there will be no one to buy them. Such consequences trigger a new round of business shutdowns and layoffs, which will further aggravate the situation; a new devaluation of the ruble will begin, stimulating an even greater crisis.

It is the devaluation of the national currency that can save us from this. Since the exporter pays with the state, employees and utilities in rubles, devaluation allows him to receive the same money supply in terms of domestic currency, even with less revenue in dollars or euros.

Until mid-2014, the sale of 1 barrel of oil generated $115, which at an exchange rate of 31 rubles. For 1$ it was enough for both salary and taxes. In order for the price of 1 barrel of oil to be $50-70 and continue to be enough for salaries and taxes, the dollar exchange rate must be higher.

The effect of the ruble devaluation is such that everyone wins in this situation.

The state budget receives the expected revenues, state employees and pensioners receive salaries and pensions on time, export workers are not fired, they receive salaries, the enterprise does not close and continues to function.

As a result, the decline in purchasing power in the country is reflected only in imported goods, because they rise in price sharply when the ruble falls.

The devaluation of the ruble is also beneficial for domestic producers, whose goods become more competitive in relation to imported analogues.

Russia's own production is beginning to grow, which has a beneficial effect on the country's economy. And this stops the fall of the ruble and strengthens it.

This is the answer to the question of who benefits from the devaluation of the ruble. But there will also be victims, especially those who have a loan in foreign currency, including a mortgage on real estate.

Hello! In this article we will talk about the devaluation of the ruble.

Today you will learn:

What is devaluation and has such a phenomenon occurred before?
Should we expect devaluation in the future and what risks will devaluation entail?

Unfortunately, the situation in the economy of our state has not undergone significant improvements. The most serious and optimistic analysts do not undertake to say when the exchange rate of our national currency will stabilize. Our economy is significantly influenced by a complex of different factors, a change in any of them in any direction will cause a response from the ruble, and one that will be difficult to stop.

What is devaluation in simple terms

Devaluation is a process during which a national currency depreciates. At the same time, devaluation is a certain tool with the help of which the national currency, in particular the ruble, is managed.

What are the types of devaluation?

There are 4 types of devaluation: natural and artificial, hidden and open.

Natural arises as a background when there are economic problems in the country, artificial This is a consequence of the actions of the Government and the Central Bank. History knows examples of artificial devaluation, some of which were successful and some that led to even greater problems.

Hidden- passing uncontrollably, and open– recognized by official authorities.

Reasons for devaluation

Experts say that in Russia at this stage there is a devaluation of a natural nature, caused by a number of serious reasons.

Among them:

The conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, for which many countries blame our state;
Annexation of Crimea (the territory of the country increased significantly);
Problems with the cost of “black gold”.

As for the first factor, it can partly be called indirect. Yes, the presence of this conflict has led to sanctions rhetoric towards Russia from the world community.

The annexation and financing of the Crimean Peninsula is an issue that needs to be discussed separately. There are clearly not enough funds in the Russian Federation, so the devaluation may gradually become artificial, although the expert community excludes such a scenario.

The oil price level can now be called more or less stable. To be fair, it should be said that this was also achieved due to improved relations with China, as well as with other countries. In addition, now we can see a certain warming in relations with the United States, which may have a beneficial effect on the price of oil.

What risks does devaluation entail?

If we talk about possible risks for ordinary citizens of the country, it becomes clear that first of all, the depreciation of the ruble will have an adverse effect on the incomes of Russians. They will begin to decline sharply. This is unlikely to hit rich people painfully. Yes, the amount in their accounts will decrease slightly, but they will definitely not face hunger and poverty.

How will the fall of the ruble affect the real estate market?

The process when money depreciates is very painful for the real estate market. The issue of obtaining mortgage loans becomes very relevant at this time.

Analysts here talk about several scenarios according to which events will develop:

The first scenario concerns only the expensive luxury real estate market. This segment, as one can assume, will not experience major shocks, since the cost of this housing is tied to currency, and the income of the purchasers is also clearly not formed in rubles.
For budget-level real estate the situation is not so rosy. The majority of buyers of such housing receive their salaries in national currency, and since the cost of housing is high in any case, it will be generally impossible to buy it without a mortgage loan. This is where the consequences of devaluation will come into full force.
The first thing banks will do is tighten requirements for borrowers. Then the interest rate on the loan will be made “floating”, that is, it will depend on the refinancing rate, which means the bank will be able to unilaterally increase it. As a result, purchasing power will fall and market stagnation will occur.
Before stagnation occurs, demand increases for some time. This happens at the expense of citizens who have savings and in this way people try to protect them.

What areas are affected by the depreciation of the ruble?

If the ruble exchange rate continues to decline, this will have an impact on several areas at once:

Real estate sector (increasing the cost of the most in-demand housing);
Banking (tightening the rules for obtaining loans);
Increase in the cost of household appliances;
Increased food costs;
Increase in inflation.

Three waves of ruble devaluation in the Russian Federation

Our country has experienced several devaluations of the national currency.

The years of ruble devaluation are as follows:

From 1998 to 1999;
From 2008 to 2009;
From 2014 to present.

This is not to say that this is a positive thing, rather the opposite. Especially if we remember the situation in 2008: there has even been an increase in the number of suicides of businessmen and entrepreneurs of various levels associated with the inability to fulfill financial obligations to banks and partners.

Although every situation has not only a negative, but also a positive side. At least for the moment.

This may include:

Improving the situation of domestic producers;
Devaluation stimulates the development of exports;
The consumption of funds from reserve funds is reduced.

Who benefits from devaluation?

The country's budget receives the greatest benefit from this not very pleasant phenomenon. All financial obligations of the Government are reflected in ruble equivalent, and the majority of treasury revenues are in dollars. It turns out that the cheaper the ruble is, the more money goes into our budget.

Russian producers of not only goods, but agricultural products also benefit. Of course, if it is competitive. Also, due to declining incomes, Russians are increasingly purchasing domestic goods.

The next group is companies offering tourist trips and travel around Russia. Demand for trips abroad has fallen due to the weakening of the ruble.

Owners of savings on foreign currency deposits. The earlier the foreign currency deposit was opened, the higher the level of profit on it.

Will there be a devaluation of the ruble in 2018?

This issue is of genuine and very serious interest to Russian citizens. People are worried and afraid. How to answer this question? Let's answer directly: devaluation will not only happen, it actually exists. We have already talked about the consequences; they can be very different. Another question is how much the Government is ready to make efforts to mitigate this phenomenon as much as possible.

Everyone knows that the process of depreciation of the ruble has been going on for several months now, but while oil prices remained high, the population did not particularly notice this. But gradually the situation changed for the worse and eventually acquired the proportions it has today.

The saddest consequence of devaluation is default. But most experts vying with each other to say that it is unlikely that it will come to that.

The economic situation that has developed now can be called a difficult test for all residents of Russia. But everyone can at least make an effort to protect themselves from the most unfavorable blows. For example: you should not keep accumulated funds at home. Of course, it won’t give you high percentage returns, but you will get some profit. Open a multi-currency deposit (that is, in several currencies). If funds allow, buy a home. It can be rented out and receive a stable income. In addition, real estate is unlikely to become cheaper.

Today we tried to explain in as simple a language as possible what devaluation of the ruble in Russia is and give some tips on how to protect the funds you have earned.